Group 1 - The article highlights four major signals that are expected to support the market as it opens for the Year of the Horse, including continuous policy support, strong consumer recovery, clear industry trends, and favorable external market conditions [4][6][9] - Policy measures are focused on equipment upgrades, consumer goods exchange programs, and significant support for new infrastructure, digital economy, and renewable energy sectors, which are expected to boost economic recovery [4] - Consumer spending has shown remarkable resilience, with record box office revenues during the Spring Festival, a doubling in travel bookings, and a nearly 500% increase in duty-free shopping in Hainan, alongside over 20% growth in dining and accommodation transactions [4] Group 2 - The article notes that the global market has been performing well, with significant gains in indices such as the Hang Seng Index and the Nikkei 225, which rose over 4%, creating a positive environment for the A-share market [6][7] - Commodity markets have also seen increases, with LME copper up 4%, London silver up 3%, and Brent crude oil rising 2.3%, providing support for cyclical sectors [7] Group 3 - The investment strategy for the Year of the Horse emphasizes a cautious approach, focusing on structural opportunities rather than broad market gains, with a prediction of a stable opening and active sector performance [9][10] - Four main investment themes are identified: the AI industry chain, semiconductors and advanced manufacturing, consumer recovery sectors, and cyclical resources, with AI being the strongest focus due to its recent performance [10][11][12] - The article advises against high-risk strategies, recommending a focus on core stocks within the identified themes and careful monitoring of key indicators such as trading volume and foreign capital inflows [13][14]

近期，《证券日报》记者走访清洁小家电头部企业科沃斯（603486）机器人股份有限公司，其首席财务 官马建军对记者介绍："公司坚持以技术创新为核心，持续推进高端化、智能化发展方向，不断提升产 品竞争力与用户体验。同时，海外市场布局稳步拓展，凭借成熟的产品体系与本土化运营，在全球多个 市场保持平稳发展态势，内外销协同成为企业稳健发展的重要支撑。" 盘古智库(北京)信息咨询有限公司高级研究员余丰慧对《证券日报》记者表示："开年家电市场平稳接 单的态势，充分反映出企业与渠道经营策略的理性回归。"他认为，随着消费政策持续落地见效，叠加 企业在高端化布局、全球化拓展等方面的持续投入，家电行业的供给端活力将进一步释放。未来，行业 有望在库存结构优化与产品迭代升级的双轮驱动下，实现更有质量的稳健发展。 山东省东营市垦利区某家电卖场负责人告诉《证券日报》记者："年底我们主要集中清理老款和库存机 型，趁着节日活动加快周转。现在年过完了，老库存基本理顺，顾客咨询更多偏向新品和实用功能。" 《证券日报》记者在走访中了解到，步入节后市场，家电产销整体进入温和复苏、按需接单的阶段。生 产企业根据市场需求灵活排产，重点保障绿色节能及智能化 ...

多元供给点燃新春消费热潮 马年春节，一股"健康、智能、绿色"的消费新风尚席卷全国。据商务大数据，2月15日，重点平台智能 穿戴设备销售额增长1.3倍，智能血压仪、血糖仪增长超60%，有机食品增长52%，用实打实的数据，彰 显出春节消费市场品质升级趋势。 在此背景下，深市食品饮料类上市公司以产品创新为核心，从节庆专属产品打造到健康品类研发，从供 应链效率提升到消费场景营造，全方位满足不同消费群体的新春需求，让节日消费既有"年味"更有"品 质"。 商超卖场年味浓郁、优质食品供销两旺、智能家电备受青睐……2026年丙午马年春节，恰逢最长春节假 期叠加消费政策红利释放，国内消费市场人气与活力双向攀升。 在这一过程中，深圳证券交易所市场（以下简称"深市"）消费类上市公司紧抓春节消费热潮，立足自身 主业优势，以产品创新贴合消费需求、以多元营销激活市场活力、以全球化布局拓展发展空间，在食品 饮料、家电等核心赛道展现出强劲的发展韧性，成为新春消费市场的活力因子，也为全年消费市场复苏 注入强劲动力。 产品创新锚定需求 例如，深耕速冻食品领域三十年的三全食品（002216）股份有限公司（以下简称"三全食品"），作为国 内速冻米面 ...

中国银河证券ICGS 行业点评报告·消费行业 消费温和复苏，悦已型春节消费斩露头角 2026年02月22日 核心观点 :guximin_vi@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130522070002 免签政策的持续 张迪 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 消费温和复苏，消费结构、消费格局变化更受瞩目：1）春节期间消费被寄 分析师 予厚望，政府发力组织 乐购新春" 春节特别活动， 发文 《积极推动物价合 理回升》， 针对互联网平台推动反垄断、反内卷。 2）消费呈现温和复苏的迹 何伟 象，包括客流的稳步增长， 以及核心商圈、 重点零售和餐饮企业相关消费的 ：hewei_yj@chinastock.com.cn 增长。部分消费品、 服务消费价格的提升。3）但市场并不认同消费的全面复 分析师登记编码：S0130525010001 苏，春节期间香港市场 必选消费指数、 非必选消费指数分别下 陈柏儒 美团2月13日公布 :chenbairu_yj @chinastock.com.cn 跌1.31%、 下跌3.0% 消费相 ...

2026年春节假期，国内消费市场呈现出蓬勃生机，节日经济活力加速释放。"乐购新春"主题活动如火如 荼，普惠消费、商圈新业态、以旧换新等多重利好叠加，推动消费潜力集中释放，为全年经济发展注入 了强劲动力。记者从多家深市消费龙头企业获悉，春节期间，各企业紧扣消费热点，推出丰富多样的营 销活动，积极抢抓旺季机遇，为新一年市场拓展打下坚实基础。机构分析认为，在春节消费旺季的良好 开局带动下，消费类企业有望在今年实现业绩持续回暖。 "春节期间，我们积极拓展广告宣传渠道，成效显著。多维度、广覆盖的广告投放，有效提升了公司的 品牌知名度与影响力，为新一年的市场拓展奠定了良好基础，这不仅是品牌传播的有力实践，更彰显我 们迈向国际舞台、引领行业发展的坚定决心与强大实力。"燕京啤酒相关负责人告诉记者，公司在北 京、长春、广州、合肥、石家庄、济南、西安、南京、昆明9座城市投放户外LED大屏广告，覆盖核心 商圈，吸引大众目光；在天津、哈尔滨、沈阳、长春、赣州、贵阳、昆明等22个城市高铁站投放灯箱广 告，精准触达出行人群。国际市场上，公司也通过在热门区位投放LED广告大屏，展示"中国燕京邀请 世界欢度中国年"的品牌气度，向全球展示品牌 ...

Market Performance - During the week from February 16 to February 20, the Hong Kong stock market experienced fluctuations with the Hang Seng Index declining by 0.58% to 26,413.25 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index falling by 2.78% to 511.50 points, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index decreasing by 0.81% to 8,959.56 points [1][6][30] - Among the primary sectors, 8 sectors saw gains while 3 sectors experienced losses. The energy, materials, and industrial sectors had the highest increases, rising by 3.65%, 2.27%, and 1.03% respectively. Conversely, the consumer discretionary, consumer staples, and communication services sectors faced the largest declines, dropping by 1.86%, 1.50%, and 0.13% respectively [1][7][30] Market Liquidity - Due to the Spring Festival holiday, the Hong Kong stock market only operated for half a day on February 16, with a trading volume of HKD 850.56 billion. On February 20, the trading volume was HKD 1,654.61 billion, which is lower than the previous week's average daily trading volume of HKD 2,406.43 billion. The short-selling amount was HKD 237.27 billion, accounting for 14.43%, significantly higher than the previous week's average of 12.56% [2][13][15] Valuation and Risk Premium - As of February 20, 2026, the PE and PB ratios of the Hang Seng Index were 12.09 times and 1.23 times, respectively, placing them at the 79% and 55% percentiles since 2010. The Hang Seng Tech Index had PE and PB ratios of 21.51 times and 2.83 times, respectively, at the 18% and 49% percentiles since 2010 [3][17][22] - The risk premium of the Hang Seng Index was calculated at 4.19%, which is at the 5% percentile since 2010, while the risk premium based on the 10-year Chinese government bond yield was 6.48%, at the 42% percentile since 2010 [3][19][21] Investment Outlook - The geopolitical risks in the Middle East are rising, which may lead to increased volatility in energy and precious metals sectors. The U.S. is exerting pressure on Iran, with potential military actions being considered [4][9][30] - The consumer sector is currently valued relatively low, and with increasing consumer promotion policies, there is potential for growth in this sector [4][30] - The technology sector remains a long-term investment focus, with reduced valuation pressure following recent corrections, and is expected to rebound due to accelerated AI model updates and applications [4][30]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry [1]. Core Insights - Geopolitical risks and tariff risks are impacting the Hong Kong stock market, with a focus on how these factors will influence market performance post-holiday [1]. - The report highlights that the U.S. GDP growth rate for Q4 2025 was 1.4%, significantly below the expected 2.5%, indicating a slowdown in the U.S. economy [2][44]. - The report suggests that the recent increase in U.S. tariffs from 10% to 15% on global goods may lead to heightened investor risk aversion, benefiting sectors like precious metals and energy [2][46]. - The consumption sector is currently at a relatively low valuation, with potential for growth as consumer policies increase [2][46]. - The technology sector remains a long-term investment focus, with reduced valuation pressure and potential for rebound due to advancements in AI [2][46]. Market Review - During the week of February 16 to February 20, 2026, the Hong Kong stock market saw declines, with the Hang Seng Index down 0.58% to 26,413.25 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index down 2.78% to 511.50 points, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index down 0.81% to 8,959.56 points [4][6]. - Among the primary sectors, 8 sectors increased while 3 sectors decreased, with energy, materials, and industrial sectors showing the highest gains [6][14]. - The trading volume was affected by the Spring Festival, with a total turnover of HKD 850.56 billion on February 16 and HKD 1,654.61 billion on February 20, lower than the previous week's average [14][18]. Valuation and Risk Premium - As of February 20, 2026, the PE and PB ratios for the Hang Seng Index were 12.09 and 1.23, respectively, placing them at the 79% and 55% percentiles since 2010 [22][29]. - The risk premium for the Hang Seng Index was calculated at 4.19%, indicating a low-risk environment compared to historical data [29][31]. - The report notes that the dividend yields for the energy and communication services sectors are above 5%, suggesting stable income opportunities for investors [36][41]. Investment Outlook - The report recommends focusing on sectors that may benefit from geopolitical tensions and tariff adjustments, particularly precious metals and energy [46]. - The consumption sector is expected to gain momentum as consumer policies are implemented, while the technology sector is anticipated to rebound due to advancements in AI [46].

Core Insights - The annual analyst field survey during the Spring Festival reveals significant trends in China's economy, with a focus on consumer behavior and industrial developments [1] Consumer Insights - Service-oriented consumption has emerged as a key focus, with analysts noting a strong demand for service consumption during the Spring Festival, particularly in Shanghai, where logistics and service sectors thrived [3] - Observations from Jiangsu province indicate a structural upgrade in consumer behavior, shifting from product-centric to a balance of goods and services, with notable increases in prices and consumption levels in entertainment and dining [3] - The rise of new consumption patterns, such as KTV and cinema attendance, reflects a broader trend towards experiential and service-based spending [2][3] Industrial Insights - Analysts report a rise in new productive forces across various regions, with traditional industries undergoing significant upgrades [5] - In Dalian, the port's logistics advantages have fostered a traditional industrial cluster focused on petrochemicals and equipment manufacturing, with a shift towards refined production processes [5] - Shandong's industrial transformation is highlighted by significant investments in new energy storage technologies, indicating a growing focus on innovative industrial applications [6] Overseas Opportunities - Analysts emphasize the potential for Chinese companies to expand overseas, particularly in Southeast Asia, with Indonesia identified as a key market for Chinese enterprises [7] - The importance of localizing products for the Southeast Asian market is underscored, with successful examples like Mengniu and Mixue demonstrating effective market entry strategies [7] - Observations from Sydney indicate rising prices in consumer goods and housing, highlighting economic challenges in international markets [7]

Group 1 - The article highlights the introduction of various consumer-friendly policies across the country, enhancing the festive happiness of citizens during the Spring Festival [1] - In Sichuan, the "old for new" policy has led to significant consumer engagement, with 1.124 million applications for home appliance exchanges, generating a consumption boost of 4.344 billion yuan [4] - The "old for new" initiative not only provides financial benefits to consumers but also promotes consumption upgrades and green transformation, becoming a key growth point in the Spring Festival market [4] Group 2 - Jiangsu's "Lego New Year" special event offers consumers substantial financial incentives, with mobile phones remaining a popular item, alongside emerging tech products like smart glasses and small appliances [5] - The inclusion of smart glasses in national subsidy policies has attracted considerable consumer interest, showcasing the evolving preferences in technology [5][7] - In Anhui, the expansion of the "Two New" policy has invigorated the automotive market, with local subsidies expected to drive monthly consumption by 150 million yuan [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the positive impact of various consumer-friendly policies implemented across the country, enhancing the festive experience for citizens during the Spring Festival [1] - In Sichuan, the "old for new" policy has led to significant consumer engagement, with 1.124 million applications for home appliance exchanges, generating a consumption boost of 4.344 billion yuan [3] - The demand for digital and smart products is also notable, with 1.618 million applications resulting in a consumption increase of 4.878 billion yuan, indicating a trend towards consumption upgrades and green transformation [3] Group 2 - Jiangsu province organized a special "Happy Shopping Spring Festival" event, providing consumers with substantial incentives, and highlighting the popularity of smartphones and smart gadgets among consumers [4] - The introduction of smart glasses into the national subsidy policy has attracted considerable consumer interest, showcasing the growing trend of technology integration in daily life [4][6] - In Anhui's Chuzhou, the automotive market has been revitalized through combined subsidies and streamlined processes, with expectations of generating 150 million yuan in monthly consumption from automotive purchases [8]