文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 今天大盘上午微涨，到下午出现了神奇两点半。 到收盘的时候大盘上涨比较多，一口气回到4.2星。 大中小盘股都上涨，小盘股上涨略低一些。 前两天下跌比较多的成长风格，今天也大幅反弹。 港股也整体上涨。 1. 最近全球市场，一些资产也出现了波动。 （1）A股中证全指，从10月份的高点，到本周二，大约回调了5-6%上下。 这个回调幅度不算太大。 今年1月和4月，A股都有过10%以上级别的回调。 不过三季度大涨的时候，进来了不少新投资者，可能刚开始投资就遇到了回调。 对新手投资者，这个波动也是一个考验。 港股最近的波动就更大一些。 另外亚太地区的股票市场，也普遍出现波动。 （2）除了股票市场波动，最近长期纯债也出现波动。 30年期国债指数基金，今年已经从高点，到周二，回调了8.9%。 这个回调比A股的回调还大。 最近几周长期纯债波动也比较大。 股票和长期纯债一般是有负相关性。 两者一起下跌，历史上不太多，往往是遇到流动性短期收紧的时候会出现。 例如2013年、例如2020年初。 2. 流动性收紧，也跟美元等政策有关。 （1）12月11日美联储降息。 但是美联储也释放了"鹰式降息" ...

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a rebound in the afternoon, with significant gains in the AI industry chain and new consumption stocks, as evidenced by various indices rising, including the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumption Theme Index by 1.3% and the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet Index by 1.2% [1] - Since December, the total inflow into ETFs related to the Hang Seng Technology Index has exceeded 8 billion yuan, with the E Fund Hang Seng Technology ETF (513010) alone attracting over 2 billion yuan, ranking among the top in its category [1] Group 2 - The Hang Seng New Economy ETF (513320) tracks the Hang Seng Stock Connect New Economy Index, which consists of the 50 largest stocks in the "new economy" sector, primarily including information technology, consumer discretionary, and healthcare, with a rolling P/E ratio of 24.3 times and a valuation percentile of 51.2% since its inception in 2018 [2] - The E Fund Hang Seng Technology ETF (513010) tracks the Hang Seng Technology Index, composed of the 30 largest stocks highly related to technology themes, with over 90% of its composition from information technology and consumer discretionary sectors, showing a rolling P/E ratio of 22.7 times and a valuation percentile of 28.4% since its launch in 2020 [2] - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Medical ETF (513200) tracks the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Medical and Health Comprehensive Index, consisting of 50 liquid and large-cap stocks in the healthcare sector, which accounts for over 90% of the index, with a rolling P/E ratio of 31.6 times and a valuation percentile of 49.9% since its inception in 2017 [2] - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet ETF (513040) tracks the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet Index, made up of 30 leading internet companies, primarily in information technology and consumer discretionary, with a rolling P/E ratio of 24.5 times and a valuation percentile of 25.2% since its launch in 2021 [2] Group 3 - The E Fund Hong Kong Consumption ETF (513070) tracks the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumption Theme Index, which includes 50 liquid and large-cap consumption stocks, with nearly 60% in consumer discretionary, showing a rise of 1.3% and a rolling P/E ratio of 17.2 times since its launch in 2020 [3]

2025年岁末，全球经济仍在波动中寻找复苏节奏，而中国经济已在政策合力下展现出韧性底色。 随着中央经济工作会议敲定"稳中求进、提质增效"的2026年基调，"十五五"开局之年，中国经济如何平衡短期修复与长期转型？ 该如何实现消费的长期可持续增长？汇率稳中有升，如何看基本面支撑与风险挑战的博弈？强化"内循环"与推进"高水平对外开 放"这两大战略，又该如何协同发力？ 针对多个热点话题，北京商报记者专访了清华大学国家金融研究院院长、清华大学五道口金融学院副院长田轩。在他看来，通过 多领域、多层次政策组合拳，有望缓解居民重点领域预防性储蓄压力，稳定收入预期与消费信心，释放消费潜能，为经济高质量 发展提供动力。 北京商报：2025年，一系列消费补贴政策陆续出台，各项促消费政策也呈现出从"增量拉动"到"结构优化"的转变。您如何评价这 种政策逻辑转换的必要性与有效性？展望2026年，要真正实现消费的长期可持续增长，政策工具箱需在哪些关键机制上实现突 破？ 田轩：2025年消费政策从"增量拉动"转向"结构优化"，是中国经济从高速增长转向高质量发展在消费领域的必然要求，有现实必 要性与战略前瞻性。 从必要性看，传统增量刺激政策有 ...

Macroeconomic Insights - China's industrial added value in November increased by 4.8% year-on-year, below the expected 5% and previous value of 4.9% [5] - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) in China decreased by 2.6% year-on-year from January to November, compared to a decline of 1.7% previously [5] - Retail sales of consumer goods in November grew by 1.3% year-on-year, falling short of the expected 2.9% and previous value of 2.9% [5] - The economic data for November indicates a significant decline in consumption and investment, with a notable increase in the decline of real estate investment, highlighting persistent issues of insufficient domestic demand [5] Equity Market Analysis - A-shares exhibited a shrinking adjustment trend due to key technical levels and a convergence of short-term risk appetite, with the ChiNext index showing a relative weakness, down by 1.77% [6] - The trading volume in the two markets significantly decreased, with a reduction of over 300 billion yuan in a single day [6] - The three major indices are currently operating below the 5-day moving average, indicating that the market remains in a phase of consolidation [6] - Despite overall pressure on indices, structural opportunities within the market remain active, particularly in the commercial aerospace sector and consumer sectors, which have attracted capital attention [6] Consumer Sector Insights - The core investment logic behind the notice on enhancing business and financial collaboration to boost consumption lies in the understanding that "new supply creates new demand" [6] - Investment opportunities are found in innovations on the supply side that leverage new technologies, create new scenarios, and meet new consumer sentiments [6] - The introduction of policies is expected to further optimize the development environment for new consumption, significantly impacting market confidence, stimulating corporate innovation, and unleashing economic growth potential [6] Alcohol Industry Focus - Kweichow Moutai's recent volume control policy is viewed as a short-term price defense and confidence restoration strategy, aimed at gaining time for deeper structural reforms [7] - In the long term, this policy represents a proactive shift in the industry from relying on "volume and price increases" for growth to a more refined management approach focusing on "brand resilience," "channel health," and "real consumption foundation" [7]

Market Overview - On December 16, A-shares and Hong Kong stocks experienced a pullback, with only about 50 out of over 1300 ETFs closing higher, and 6 of these ETFs rising by 1% or more. Financial technology, tourism, and automotive sector ETFs showed relative resilience [1] - In the cross-border ETF segment, two Brazilian ETFs and one S&P Consumer ETF led the market in terms of gains [1] ETF Performance - Notably, several ETFs that rose against the market trend saw significant increases in trading volume. The S&P Consumer ETF (159529) had a turnover rate of 199.92%, with a trading volume nearing 2 billion yuan, four times that of the previous day. The Smart Driving ETF (516520) also saw its trading volume increase to approximately seven times that of the previous day [2] - On December 16, financial technology, tourism, and automotive sector ETFs performed well, with multiple products ranking among the top gainers. The financial technology ETFs linked to the CSI Financial Technology Index saw over half of their constituent stocks close in the green, with notable gains from companies like Chuangshi Technology (300941) and Cuiwei Co. (603123) [4] Fund Flows - On December 15, despite the market pullback, ETFs experienced a net inflow of approximately 6.7 billion yuan, with broad-based ETFs attracting significant capital. Several ETFs linked to the CSI A500 Index ranked among the top for net inflows, with three A500 ETFs collectively receiving over 13.5 billion yuan in net inflows over the past five trading days [3][9] - The A500 ETF from Southern Fund (159352) led with a net inflow of 3.915 billion yuan on December 15, significantly outpacing other products [11] Sector-Specific Insights - The gold stock ETFs faced a sharp decline on December 16, with the largest drop exceeding 4%. Six out of the top ten ETFs with the largest declines were gold-related, reflecting a cautious market sentiment ahead of key economic data releases [7] - The CSI A500 Index has over 280 public funds linked to it, with more than 80 asset management firms involved, totaling over 240 billion yuan in assets. Over 80% of this is held in ETF products, with 40 ETFs exceeding 210 billion yuan in total assets [10] Upcoming Products - On December 19, Huatai-PB Fund will launch the Sci-Tech Entrepreneurship Artificial Intelligence ETF, adding to the growing list of innovative ETF products in the market [13]

Core Viewpoint - The sentiment index for the Hong Kong stock market has been volatile since November, influenced by fluctuating expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and a pullback in the US AI sector. Although concerns about an AI bubble remain, the sentiment index has shown some recovery following the Fed's anticipated rate cut. The Hang Seng Index's forward P/E ratio is currently at 12.7 times, down 5% from its highest point this year. In the absence of new catalysts, the market sentiment may enter a period of oscillation and recovery, but it may not be the right time for a full-scale bottom-fishing strategy [1][2]. Market Sentiment Analysis - As of December 10, the sentiment index constructed by the company stands at 59.1, a significant drop from November's high of 83, and is near the past year's moving average at -0.5 standard deviations. However, it has not reached extreme weakness (below -1 standard deviation) or entered the pessimistic zone (below 40) [2]. - The sentiment index has been affected by liquidity factors and the pullback in the US AI sector. The index experienced a rapid decline but has since recovered somewhat due to the Fed's rate cut [2][3]. Indicator Performance - Among the 13 indicators that make up the sentiment index, only 2 indicators show strong improvement (weight: 15.4%), namely increased stock buybacks and a decline in the put/call ratio for Hang Seng Index options. Conversely, 9 indicators have weakened (weight: 69.2%), including decreased main board trading volume, lower IPO fundraising amounts, a declining RSI index, reduced total trading volume through the Stock Connect, and an increase in market risk premium. Two indicators remained stable, namely the Hang Seng Index volatility index and the stock-bond yield spread (weight: 15.4%) [3]. Short-term Investment Strategy - The market is expected to maintain a volatile trend, with potential rotation in styles and investment themes. Due to the lack of new catalysts and uncertainties surrounding future Fed rate cuts, incremental capital allocation may focus more on scarce assets, while valuation expansion potential is limited. Therefore, earnings performance is likely to dictate market trends. The recommended short-term investment strategy is a "barbell strategy" that balances risk and reward, focusing on both technology and dividend stocks [4]. - On the dividend side, traditional defensive sectors such as banking, insurance, telecommunications, public utilities, and energy are highlighted, along with a focus on the consumer sector. On the technology side, attention should be given to Hong Kong companies with reasonable valuations and strong AI attributes, as well as opportunities in the A-share computing power industry and AI application layer [4].

Economic Outlook - Global GDP growth from 2025 to 2027 is expected to exceed market consensus, with liquidity already released and fiscal support in place, reducing the probability of a deep economic recession [1] - The implementation of the Inflation Reduction Act is anticipated to have a significant positive impact on the economy [1] - US retail and employment data remain robust, indicating sustained consumer momentum [1] Bond Market - The ten-year government bond yield is fluctuating between 1.65% and 1.90%, with significant adjustments observed from July to September, followed by a slight bullish trend [2] - The market predominantly holds bullish and neutral views, with year-end rush potentially leading to limited downward space for interest rates [2] - Central bank bond purchases and weaker-than-expected real estate and infrastructure volumes provide downward protection for the bond market [2] Real Estate and Infrastructure - Real estate and infrastructure data continue to decline, with significant drops in investment and a surge in second-hand housing listings [3] - Fiscal revenues related to real estate have seen a double-digit decline, and overall fiscal deficits are projected to be around 8.3 trillion yuan for the year [3] - The demand for credit bonds is supported by the increase in bank wealth management products, which have surpassed 32 trillion yuan [3] Stock Market - Cyclical - Demand-side performance remains lackluster, with price increases primarily driven by supply constraints and energy storage [4] - Precious metals, particularly gold, maintain resilience, while industrial metals like copper and aluminum are expected to face supply challenges [4] - Chemical products are experiencing price rebounds due to industry-wide production cuts [4] Stock Market - Manufacturing - The industrial sector's overall rating remains unchanged, with significant price increases in lithium battery materials [5] - The automotive sector shows mixed signals, with wholesale data growing by 6-7%, primarily driven by exports [5] - Valuations in the photovoltaic and lithium battery sectors have returned to above-average levels, while the automotive supply chain remains undervalued [5] Stock Market - Consumer - High-end consumer goods outperform mass-market products, with travel and pet sectors maintaining high growth [6] - The recovery in travel-related prices is notable, with airlines and hotels showing positive year-on-year growth [6] - The pork market is experiencing price declines, with expectations of a weak market in the first half of 2026 [6] Stock Market - Technology - The technology sector remains promising, driven by AI advancements and increasing chip computing power [8] - The semiconductor equipment market is expected to double by 2025, with rising storage prices contributing to this growth [8] - Short-term cash flow concerns in AI applications are present, but new opportunities may arise with future chip iterations [8]

Group 1 - The overall asset performance indicates that various asset classes have entered a period of fluctuation, with the equity market experiencing a high-level consolidation phase, primarily driven by the technology sector, while consumer and cyclical sectors remain weak [1][6]. - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut was weaker than expected, limiting its positive impact on the U.S. and global economies, which in turn affects the capital markets [1][6]. - The Central Economic Work Conference in China reiterated a stable growth approach, with a focus on expanding domestic demand and improving investment, although the implementation of these policies may take time to materialize [2][10]. Group 2 - The A-share market is currently in a high-level consolidation phase, with limited substantial positive news and a preference for stability as the new year approaches [2][10]. - The report suggests a "barbell strategy" for asset allocation, recommending maintaining positions in the technology sector while cautiously considering opportunities in the consumer sector due to recent positive macro data [2][11]. - The technology sector is expected to remain a core driver of market performance, with significant opportunities arising from national competition and domestic innovation [10][11]. Group 3 - The bond market is following the trends of the equity market, showing a clear negative correlation, and is expected to remain under pressure without significant positive catalysts [3][32]. - The bond market's configuration suggests limited upward potential in the short term, but it may serve as a stabilizing option against equity market volatility [32]. Group 4 - The commodity market is experiencing a return to a fluctuating trend, with precious metals like silver supporting the upward movement of the precious metals index, while energy and chemical commodities are underperforming [4][41]. - The report anticipates that gold may continue to rise in the long term, driven by a decoupling from the U.S. dollar, although the overall strength of the commodity market will depend on the performance of metals and agricultural products [41][45].

12月16日，港股消费板块早盘持续震荡，港股消费ETF（513230）现跌超1%。持仓股中，布鲁可、奥 克斯电气、卫龙美味、康耐特光学、泡泡玛特等跌幅靠前，巨子生物、高鑫零售、蜜雪集团等涨幅靠 前。 商务部最新数据显示，今年1-11月，消费品以旧换新（即"国补"）带动相关商品销售额超2.5万亿元，惠 及超3.6亿人次。在12月10日-12月11日举行的中央经济工作会议上明确，国家明年将继续发行超长期特 别国债支持消费品以旧换新。 银河证券认为，中央经济工作会议肯定了以旧换新补贴政策的作用， 提到了优化"两新"政策实施，机 构预计2026年以旧换新补贴政策将进一步优化，对于已享受补贴 的品类预计力度将有所下降，同时预 计会引入新的补贴品类。 港股消费ETF（513230）跟踪中证港股通消费主题指数，一键打包互联网电商龙头+新消费，成分股近 乎囊括港股消费的各个领域，包括泡泡玛特、老铺黄金等新消费龙头，又包含腾讯、阿里巴巴、小米等 互联网电商龙头，科技+消费属性突出。 ...

这两条信息结合在一起，透露了一个清晰的信号：市场正在从一个纯粹由流动性和未来想象驱动的阶 段，逐步转向一个需要兼顾估值、盈利基本面和实际经济数据的阶段。 本周即将密集公布的美国零售 销售、非农就业和CPI数据，就是检验这一转变的关键试金石。 那么，这对我们A股投资者有什么具体启示呢？我认为有三点值得重点思考。 第一，重视板块间的轮动与再平衡。美股资金从高估值科技股流向更广泛标的，这种风格偏好很可能通 过情绪和全球配置影响A股。这意味着，我们在关注科技主线的同时，必须高度重视那些估值处于低 位、受益于经济复苏预期的方向。 第二，"业绩确定性"的权重正在提升。当流动性最宽松的预期逐步被市场消化后，无论是美股还是A 股，资金都会更敏锐地寻找那些业绩能实实在在兑现的行业和公司。故事依然重要，但故事的实现能力 变得更加重要。 第三，做好应对波动的准备。重磅经济数据集中公布，必然会加剧市场的短期波动。对于中长线投资者 而言，这非但不是风险，反而可能是检验手中公司成色、逢低布局优质资产的观察窗口。 朋友们，我是帮主郑重。周一晚上，美股又给全球市场出了一道思考题：纳斯达克指数跌了超过130 点，科技股普遍承压。但更有意思的， ...