Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints The report focuses on the weekly data of the large refining and chemical industry, including price, profit, inventory, and operating rate changes in different sectors such as refining, polyester, and chemicals, as well as the performance of relevant listed companies [2][8][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Big Refining Weekly Data Briefing - **Price and Spread**: The domestic key large refining project spread this week was 2,673 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 377 yuan/ton (16%); the foreign key large refining project spread was 1,241 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 258 yuan/ton (26%). The average price of PX this week was 875.1 dollars/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 4.9 dollars/ton, and the spread to crude oil was 369.6 dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 41.0 dollars/ton [2]. - **Polyester Sector**: POY/FDY/DTY industry average prices were 7,193/7,496/8,446 yuan/ton respectively, with week - on - week increases of 146/179/186 yuan/ton. The weekly average profits were 74/10/44 yuan/ton, with week - on - week increases of 88/109/114 yuan/ton. The inventory was 17.2/18.9/25.3 days, with week - on - week changes of +0.9/ - 0.9/ - 0.3 days. The filament operating rate was 90.6%, a week - on - week increase of 0.3 pct. The downstream loom operating rate was 59.0%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.7 pct [2]. - **Refining Sector**: Domestic gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel prices rose this week, while in the US, gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel prices fell [2]. - **Chemical Sector**: The PX operating rate was 86.4%, a week - on - week increase of 0.1 pct [2]. - **Related Listed Companies**: Private large refining and chemical & polyester filament companies include Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, Hengyi Petrochemical, Tongkun Co., Ltd., and Xin凤鸣 [2]. - **Stock Performance**: The oil and petrochemical index on June 27, 2025, showed a - 2.1% change in the past week, 1.5% in the past month, - 1.1% in the past three months, - 5.9% in the past year, and - 4.9% since the beginning of 2025. Among the listed companies, Rongsheng Petrochemical had a 2.5% increase in the past week, while Tongkun Co., Ltd. had a - 33.3% change in the past year [8]. - **Earnings Forecast**: For example, Hengli Petrochemical's expected net profit attributable to the parent company in 2025 is 8.024 billion yuan, with a PE of 12.5 in 2025E [8]. 3.2 Big Refining Weekly Report - **2.1 Big Refining Index and Project Spread Trends**: It may involve the trends of the big refining index, domestic and foreign big refining project spreads, and the changes in the performance of six private big refining companies [11][15][20]. - **2.2 Polyester Sector**: Covers various aspects such as the prices and spreads of crude oil, PX, PTA, and MEG; the operating rates of PX, PTA, and MEG; the prices and profits of POY, FDY, DTY, and polyester staple fiber; the inventory and operating rates of polyester filament and downstream looms [23][33][55]. - **2.3 Refining Sector**: Includes the prices and spreads of domestic, US, European, and Singaporean refined oil products (gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel) relative to crude oil [84][99][122]. - **2.4 Chemical Sector**: Focuses on the prices and spreads of various chemical products such as polyethylene, polypropylene, EVA, and styrene relative to crude oil [139][140][148].

Core Viewpoint - The "Shandong Port Crude Oil Tank Capacity Digital Trading Platform" developed by Qingdao International Energy Exchange Center has been recognized as a "Digital Financial Typical Product" in the recently announced 2025 "Good Financial Products" list, highlighting the importance of digital transformation in the energy sector [1] Group 1: Digital Transformation in Energy - The Shandong Provincial Government is advancing the construction of a unified national energy market system and exploring new paths for digital transformation in the energy sector [1] - The platform addresses industry pain points such as low digital management levels, inefficient resource allocation, and lack of pricing mechanisms in traditional crude oil tank leasing models [1] Group 2: Benefits of the "Easy Tank Capacity" Service - A leading refinery, referred to as Refinery A, imports nearly 800,000 tons of raw materials monthly through Shandong Port, making tank capacity a critical resource for stable raw material imports [2] - The "Easy Tank Capacity" service allows Refinery A to secure tank capacity online with a deposit, significantly reducing the time and cost associated with traditional offline leasing methods [2] - The service has enabled Refinery A to minimize ship waiting times and save nearly 1 million RMB in demurrage costs [2] Group 3: Achievements of Qingdao International Energy Exchange Center - The center has launched the world's first crude oil tank capacity digital trading product and established a cross-border payment system for the province [3] - It has served over 600 industry clients, with a market capacity of 34.88 million cubic meters and a transaction volume exceeding 340 billion RMB [3] - The platform contributes to the stability of the energy supply chain and promotes the digital transformation of finance, providing a replicable "Shandong Port Solution" [3]

Group 1 - The report anticipates that the A-share market will continue to experience a slight upward trend in July, driven by dividends and technology sectors [2][4][8] - Since the beginning of 2025, A-share indices have shown wide fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly up by 0.89% and the ChiNext Index down by 5.79% as of June 23, 2025 [3][10][11] - The report highlights that the dividend sector, particularly banks and insurance, has performed well, while the consumer sector has been relatively weak due to the impact of the liquor industry [35][36] Group 2 - The report suggests that the technology sector, particularly semiconductors, components, and gaming, may present breakthrough opportunities in July [8][36] - The analysis indicates that the macroeconomic environment is stabilizing, with expectations of new policy measures to support technology innovation and consumption [5][30] - The report identifies three categories of industries based on profit growth and PE ratios, emphasizing sectors like small metals, automation equipment, and precious metals as potential investment opportunities [32][36]

Report Title - The title of the report is "Big Refining Weekly Report: Filament Prices Rebound, Production and Sales Decline Significantly" [1] Report Date - The report was released on June 22, 2025 [1] Report Analysts - The chief energy and chemical securities analyst is Chen Shuxian, CFA, with the practice certificate number S0600523020004 [1] - The research assistant is Zhou Shaowen, with the practice certificate number S0600123070007 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Report Core Views - The report provides a weekly update on the big refining industry, covering key projects' spreads, polyester, refining, and chemical segments, as well as relevant listed companies [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Big Refining Weekly Data Briefing - **Price and Spread**: The weekly spread of domestic key big refining projects was 2,295 yuan/ton, a decrease of 135 yuan/ton (6% MoM); the spread of foreign key big refining projects was 983 yuan/ton, an increase of 14 yuan/ton (1% MoM). Brent crude oil was at $75.5/barrel, up $6.8 (9.8% MoM), and WTI was at $73.5/barrel, up $6.4 (9.5% MoM) [2][8] - **Polyester Sector**: POY/FDY/DTY industry average prices were 7,079/7,357/8,300 yuan/ton, up 193/168/161 yuan/ton respectively. Their weekly average profits were 8/-73/-44 yuan/ton, down 34/51/56 yuan/ton respectively. POY/FDY/DTY inventories were 16.3/19.8/25.6 days, down 1.6/1.9/2.9 days respectively. The filament operating rate was 90.3%, up 0.6 pct. The downstream loom operating rate was 60.7%, down 0.4 pct. Weaving enterprises' raw material inventory was 11.2 days, up 0.6 days, and finished - product inventory was 26.2 days, up 0.8 days [2] - **Refining Sector**: Domestic and US gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel prices rose this week [2] - **Chemical Sector**: The average PX price was $880.0/ton, up $61.1/ton, and the spread to crude oil was $328.6/ton, up $11.8/ton. The PX operating rate was 86.3%, down 0.1 pct [2] - **Related Listed Companies**: Private big refining and polyester filament companies include Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, Hengyi Petrochemical, Tongkun Group, and Xin Fengming [2] - **Stock Performance and Earnings Forecast**: The report tracks the stock price changes and earnings forecasts of 6 private refining companies, including Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, etc. For example, Hengli Petrochemical's stock price was 14.1 yuan, with a total market value of 99.3 billion yuan, and its net profit attributable to the parent in 2024A was 7.044 billion yuan [8] 2. Big Refining Weekly Report - **Index and Spread Trends**: It analyzes the trends of big refining indexes, domestic and foreign project spreads, and the price changes of crude oil, PX, and other products [11][19] - **Polyester Sector**: Multiple aspects of the polyester sector are analyzed, such as the prices and profits of PX, PTA, POY, FDY, DTY, etc., as well as the operating rates and inventory levels of relevant products [22][38] - **Refining Sector**: It details the price and spread changes of domestic, US, European, and Singaporean gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel [82][97][108][119] - **Chemical Sector**: It presents the price and spread changes of various chemical products, including polyethylene LLDPE, EVA foaming materials, etc. [129][130]

| 板块名称 | 治區� | 主力金额 | 板块名称 | 涨幅备 | 主力金额 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 油气开采及服务 | +4.42% | -10.27 乙 | 贵金属 | -1.79% | -4.88 7. | | 游戏 | +3.50% | +8.01 乙 | 毛发医疗 | -1.07% | -1.26 Z. | | 影视院线 | +3.09% | +13.447. | 青蒿素 | -0.97% | -7111万 | | 风电设备 | +2.96% | +4.03 7. | 兵装重组概念 | -0.95% | -2.17 亿 | | 可燃冰 | +2.77% | -4.72 Z | 机场航运 | -0.82% | +2182万 | | 电子身份证 | +2.70% | +7.60 7. | 金属锌 | -0.79% | -3.03 7. | | 快手概念 | +2.70% | +15.43 7. | 汽车服务及其他 | -0.79% | +17317 | | Web3.0 | +2.68% | +10.15 7 | 美容护理 | -0.75% ...

各位老铁，我是20年财经老司机帮主郑重。今天这市场可真是"屋漏偏逢连夜雨"——以色列和伊朗周末互炸不停，直接把布伦特原油轰到75美元/桶，黄 金也跟着窜到3444美元/盎司，这架势简直像在看《速度与激情》的原油版！作为中长线玩家，咱们得把显微镜和望远镜都用上，既要盯紧当下的避险机 会，又得看清长期的战略布局。 不过咱们也别光顾着避险，政策面的暖风还在吹。央行上周又撒了5000亿逆回购，市场流动性像"活水"一样。科技自主这条主线可不能丢，工信部的《算 力互联互通计划》正在推进，光模块龙头中际旭创、服务器巨头浪潮信息，短期被错杀反而是捡便宜的机会。消费板块也有惊喜，618大促数据超预期， 美妆龙头珀莱雅、家电巨头美的集团，业绩确定性比黄金还稳。 技术面上，原油下方72美元是强支撑，这是OPEC+减产协议的成本线，跌破的概率不大。黄金3400美元是关键心理关口，只要站稳，下一个目标就是 3750美元的历史新高。操作上别太激进，5-6成仓位拿着，30%能源军工，30%科技成长，20%消费，剩下20%现金机动。早盘要是量能破了3000亿，该加 仓就加仓；要是跌破原油72美元或者黄金3400美元，就切换到高股息模式，银行 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the petrochemical industry, indicating a favorable investment environment [3]. Core Insights - The escalation of conflicts in the Middle East has led to significant fluctuations in oil prices, with Brent crude reaching a peak of $78.5 per barrel on June 13, marking the largest single-day increase in nearly five years. The report outlines three potential scenarios for the impact of the Israel-Iran conflict on oil prices, ranging from limited upward pressure to a potential surge above $100 per barrel if the situation escalates further [6][7][14]. Summary by Sections Upstream Sector - As of June 13, 2025, Brent crude futures closed at $74.23 per barrel, up 11.67% from the previous week, while WTI futures rose 13.01% to $72.98 per barrel. The average prices for the week were $69.45 and $67.89 per barrel, respectively [6][21]. - U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 3.644 million barrels to 432 million barrels, which is 8% lower than the same period last year. Gasoline inventories increased by 1.504 million barrels, remaining 2% lower than the five-year average [21][23]. - The number of U.S. drilling rigs decreased by 4 to 555, which is a year-on-year decline of 35 rigs. The report anticipates a widening supply-demand trend in crude oil, with potential downward pressure on prices, but expects drilling day rates to continue rising due to ongoing capital expenditures in the global oil and gas upstream sector [6][21]. Refining Sector - The report notes a decline in overseas refined oil crack spreads, with Singapore's comprehensive product crack spread dropping to $5.40 per barrel, down $5.38 from the previous week. The gasoline crack spread in the U.S. also fell to $20.95 per barrel, below the historical average of $24.88 per barrel [6][54][56]. - Despite the decline in crack spreads, the report suggests that refining profitability may gradually improve as overseas refineries exit the market and domestic refining rates remain low [6]. Polyester Sector - PTA profitability has increased, while profits from polyester filament yarn have decreased. The report highlights that the overall performance of the polyester industry is average, with a need to monitor demand changes closely. However, it anticipates an upward trend in industry prosperity in the medium to long term due to a slowdown in new capacity additions [6][51]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-quality refining companies such as Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and Sinopec, as well as companies in the upstream exploration and development sector like CNOOC and Haiyou Engineering. It also suggests monitoring polyester leaders like Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials for potential investment opportunities [6][15][16].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints The report presents a weekly update on the large refining and chemical industry, including price, profit, inventory, and production rate data for various segments such as refining, polyester, and chemical products, as well as performance data for major private refining and chemical companies [2][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Big Refining Weekly Data Briefing - **6 Major Private Refining Companies' Performance**: The oil and petrochemical index had a 3.5% increase in the past week, 5.0% in the past month, 5.2% in the past three months, and -3.6% in the past year. Among the companies, Rongheng Petrochemical, Hengli Petrochemical, Orient Shenghong, Hengyi Petrochemical, Tongkun Co., Ltd., and Xin Fengming had different performance in terms of stock price changes and profit forecasts [8]. - **Oil Prices and Refining Spreads**: International crude oil prices (Brent and WTI) increased this week. The domestic refining project spread was 2503.1 yuan/ton, a decrease of 172.1 yuan/ton (-6.4%) compared to the previous week. The foreign refining project spread was 968.9 yuan/ton, a decrease of 93.8 yuan/ton (-8.8%) [8]. - **Polyester Sector**: PX, MEG, PTA, POY, FDY, DTY, and other product prices, spreads, inventories, and production rates showed various changes. For example, the PX price was 818.9 dollars/ton, a decrease of 13.3 dollars/ton, and the PX production rate was 86.4%, an increase of 1.4% [9]. - **Refining Sector**: In China, the prices of gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene increased. In the US, the gasoline price decreased, while diesel and aviation kerosene prices increased. In Europe and Singapore, the prices and spreads of various refined oil products also changed [9]. - **Chemical Sector**: The prices and spreads of products such as EVA photovoltaic materials, EVA foaming materials, LDPE, LLDPE, HDPE, and others showed different trends [9]. 2. Big Refining Weekly Report - **2.1 Big Refining Index and Project Spread Trends**: The report may show the trends of the big refining index, the market performance of six private big refining companies, and the weekly spreads of domestic and foreign big refining projects [11][15][17]. - **2.2 Polyester Sector**: It includes data and trends on the prices, profits, inventories, and production rates of products in the polyester industry chain, such as crude oil, PX, PTA, MEG, POY, FDY, DTY, and downstream weaving [21][31][50]. - **2.3 Refining Sector**: It presents the price and spread relationships between crude oil and various refined oil products (gasoline, diesel, aviation kerosene) in different regions (China, the US, Europe, Singapore) [77][92][104]. - **2.4 Chemical Sector**: It shows the price and spread relationships between crude oil and various chemical products, such as polyethylene LLDPE, homopolymerized polypropylene, EVA foaming materials, EVA photovoltaic materials, etc. [127][128][135].

Group 1: Oil and Petrochemical Industry - OPEC+ is continuing to increase production, which may put pressure on oil prices. The report suggests that despite short-term bearish sentiment due to trade wars, the domestic petrochemical industry maintains a cost advantage due to improved cost structures [6][7]. - The report recommends focusing on upstream resource companies like China National Petroleum and China National Offshore Oil Corporation, as oil prices are expected to recover after hitting seasonal lows in Q2 [6][7]. - The marine oil service industry is projected to maintain stable capital expenditures, with domestic reserves and production continuing to grow. Companies like CNOOC Engineering and Bohai Drilling are highlighted for their low valuations and advanced technology [7]. Group 2: Automotive Industry - Changan Automobile reported a wholesale sales volume of 224,300 units in May 2025, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 8.47% and a year-on-year increase of 17.65%. The cumulative sales volume for the first five months of 2025 reached 1.1202 million units, up 1.00% year-on-year [8][9]. - The indirect controlling shareholder, China Ordnance Equipment Group, has received approval for a restructuring plan, which is expected to enhance Changan's strategic position and operational efficiency [10][11]. - The report anticipates significant growth in Changan's electric vehicle segment, with a projected increase in sales driven by new model launches and international expansion [9][11]. Group 3: Employment and Economic Indicators - The U.S. non-farm payrolls added 139,000 jobs in May 2025, slightly above expectations, but the report notes a downward revision in previous months' data, indicating potential underlying weaknesses in the labor market [12][13]. - The service sector remains the primary contributor to job growth, while the manufacturing sector shows signs of cooling, likely due to declining retail demand [14][15]. - Despite stable unemployment rates, the report highlights rising wage growth, which may complicate the Federal Reserve's decision-making regarding interest rate cuts [15]. Group 4: Macro Economic Outlook - The report expresses optimism for the recovery of the consumer services sector, technology, and cyclical leaders, suggesting a potential reversal in these areas [16][19]. - Global asset performance shows a rebound in stock markets, with commodities like oil and gold also experiencing price increases due to improved trade relations and monetary policy adjustments [16][17]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring macroeconomic indicators, including manufacturing PMI and industrial output, to gauge future economic trends [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report The report focuses on the weekly data of the large refining and chemical industry, including price, profit, inventory, and operating rate of different sectors such as polyester, refining, and chemicals, as well as the performance and profit forecasts of related listed companies [2][8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Big Refining Weekly Data Briefing - **Price and Spread**: The domestic key large refining project spread this week was 2,675 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 48 yuan/ton (-2%); the foreign key large refining project spread was 1,063 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 23 yuan/ton (-2%). The average price of PX this week was 832.1 dollars/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 8.0 dollars/ton, and the spread to crude oil was 356.4 dollars/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 13.1 dollars/ton [2]. - **Polyester Plate**: The average prices of POY/FDY/DTY this week were 6,979/7,279/8,200 yuan/ton respectively, with week - on - week changes of -57/-21/+0 yuan/ton. Their weekly average profits were 96/30/44 yuan/ton, with week - on - week increases of +8/+31/+46 yuan/ton. The inventory was 16.5/21.6/28.4 days, with week - on - week increases of +2.7/+0.9/+1.1 days. The filament operating rate was 89.1%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.6 pct. The downstream loom operating rate was 61.3%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.1 pct [2]. - **Refining Plate**: Domestic refined oil prices: gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel prices rose this week. US refined oil prices: gasoline prices fell, while diesel and jet fuel prices rose [2]. - **Chemical Plate**: The PX operating rate was 84.6%, a week - on - week increase of 3.9 pct [2]. - **Related Listed Companies**: Private large refining and chemical & polyester filament companies include Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, Orient Shenghong, Hengyi Petrochemical, Tongkun Co., Ltd., and Xin凤鸣 [2]. - **Stock Price and Profit Forecast**: The report provides the stock price changes of 6 private refining and chemical companies in different time periods and their profit forecasts from 2024A to 2027E [8]. 3.2 Big Refining Weekly Report 3.2.1 Big Refining Index and Project Spread Trend The report shows the changes in the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300, petroleum and petrochemical, and oil prices, as well as the weekly spreads of domestic and foreign large refining projects [14][16]. 3.2.2 Polyester Plate It presents various data such as the prices, spreads, operating rates, inventories, and production - sales ratios of PX, PTA, MEG, polyester filaments (POY, FDY, DTY), polyester staple fibers, and polyester bottle chips [10]. 3.2.3 Refining Plate The report details the prices, spreads, and changes of domestic, US, European, and Singapore refined oil products (gasoline, diesel, jet fuel) compared to crude oil [10]. 3.2.4 Chemical Plate It provides the prices, spreads, and changes of various chemical products such as pure benzene, styrene, acrylonitrile, polycarbonate, MMA, etc., compared to crude oil [10].