Core Viewpoint - The domestic pig market is experiencing fluctuations, with prices showing a recent rebound after a period of decline, but overall demand remains weak, leading to concerns about future price stability [1][3][5] Group 1: Market Trends - As of June 23, the main contract for live pig futures reached 13,975 yuan/ton, up nearly 5% from the low of 13,350 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month [1] - The overall price of live pigs has been on a downward trend since the third quarter of 2024, currently at relatively low levels [1] - The average price of live pigs nationwide rose to 14.22 yuan/kg by June 20, following a drop to 13.94 yuan/kg on June 9 [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The demand for live pigs has weakened, leading to an oversupply situation that has caused prices to drop significantly [1][3] - The average trading price for 7 kg piglets in Hunan fell to 460 yuan/head by June 19, a decrease of 85 yuan/head or 15.6% since early May [2] - The increase in feed costs, particularly for corn and soybean meal, has further pressured the profitability of pig farming [3] Group 3: Profitability and Cost Analysis - As of June 19, the average profit for self-breeding pigs was 137.93 yuan/head, down 66.12 yuan/head from early April, while the profit for piglets was 153.42 yuan/head, down 151.05 yuan/head [3] - The average feed cost for self-breeding pigs was 934.88 yuan, and for piglet fattening, it was 889.94 yuan, both showing increases from early April [3] Group 4: Slaughtering Trends - The daily slaughter volume for sample enterprises remained stable, with a range between 165,000 to 186,000 heads, influenced by increased supply and the profitability of fresh meat segmentation [4] - The average gross profit per head for slaughtering was 28.56 yuan, up 222.38% compared to the same period last year [4] Group 5: Future Outlook - The market is expected to face continued downward pressure on prices due to increased slaughtering rates and weak demand, although there are signs of improved market sentiment [5] - The third quarter may see a seasonal decline in pig stocks, potentially supporting higher average prices compared to the second quarter [4]

Group 1: Swine Industry - The swine industry is expected to maintain growth in hog output until at least September 2025, but overall hog prices are projected to remain under pressure, leading to a potential decline in profitability for the industry [1] - The number of breeding sows has started to decline since December 2024, with a slight increase in February 2025, and a 1.03% decrease in April 2025 compared to the peak in 2024, indicating a low overall capacity reduction in the industry [1] - The price of piglets has begun to decline since May 2025, which may prompt breeding farms to actively cull sows, leading to an expected simultaneous drop in hog and piglet prices in the second half of the year [1] Group 2: Feed Industry - China's feed production reached 10.3 million tons from January to April 2025, a year-on-year increase of 11%, driven by the recovery in hog stocks, increased aquaculture, and stable poultry stocks [2] - Vietnam's animal feed production also saw growth, with a total output of 4.72 million tons (up 7.69% year-on-year) and aquaculture feed production of 2.84 million tons (up 8.37% year-on-year), indicating a robust demand for feed [2] - The growth in livestock and aquaculture stocks, along with increased feed penetration rates, suggests that Chinese feed companies are likely to experience good growth opportunities abroad [2] Group 3: Pet Industry - The export of pet food from China has been growing, with a total export volume of 110,200 tons from January to April 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 16%, and an export value of 3.22 billion yuan, up 6% [3] - Domestic consumption of pet food remains strong, with online sales of cat and dog food reaching 9.05 billion yuan from January to April 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 17% [3] - The chain rate of pet hospitals in China is still relatively low compared to developed countries, indicating potential for improvement in this area [3]

证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 06 月 23 日 猪肉情绪支撑，猪价重心上移 [Table_Title2] 农林牧渔行业周报第 19 期 [Table_Summary] 本周观点: 种植产业链：据农业农村部，6 月 17 日，农业农村部种植业管 理司在河北省邯郸市大名县召开全国大豆油料生产暨花生"一 扩双提"工作推进会，分析大豆油料产需形势，交流各地巩固 大豆油料扩种成果的经验做法，部署大豆油料夏播夏管和花生 "一扩双提"等工作。会议指出，各地要深入贯彻落实习近平 总书记重要指示批示精神，落实党中央国务院决策部署，深刻 认识持续巩固大豆油料扩种成果的重要性紧迫性，切实增强责 任感使命感，推进实施国家大豆和油料产能提升工程，稳住大 豆生产，挖掘油料扩种潜力，落实大面积单产提升关键措施， 持续提升大豆油料产能。会议要求，今年是实施花生"一扩双 提"行动的第一年，各地要抓好关键措施落实。扩面积上，通 过合理轮作、带状复合种植、林果套种等扩种花生。提单产 上，集成推广"单粒精播、起垄栽培、水肥一体、两段收获" 等关键技术，促进大面积均衡增产。提品质上，加快推广高 油、高油酸、高蛋 ...

重申持续推荐宠物和生猪板块 20250622 摘要 发改委和农业农村部出台政策，旨在通过去产能提升猪价，以活跃消费 并引导 CPI 恢复，类似于 2015-2016 年环保政策对生猪行业产能的约 束，但与此前非洲猪瘟后的保护性政策有所不同。 当前生猪板块估值较低，建议关注低成本、低负债率、出栏增速和成长 性高的企业，如牧原股份、温氏股份等一线标的，以及神农集团、巨星 农牧等二线标的。 2025 年宠物食品市场品牌格局中，国产品牌占比提升，鲜朗、麦富迪 等领先，弗列加特增速显著。外资品牌如皇家、天然百利、渴望、艾肯 拿仍占据重要地位。 宠物食品市场高端产品线快速增长，如烘焙风干粮等，其中弗列加特表 现突出。消费者更关注精准喂养功能，推动国产品牌以更高性价比竞争 外资品牌。 京东数据显示，皇家和麦富迪在猫粮和狗粮市场占据领先地位，同时网 易严选、渴望、爱肯拿、弗列加特等品牌也表现出色。中高端市场逐渐 向超高端领域发展，国产品牌竞争力增强。 Q&A 今年下半年生猪板块的基本面和政策拐点有哪些变化？ 今年下半年，生猪板块处于基本面拐点和政策拐点的阶段。从基本面来看，今 年的出栏规模增速预期以及二次育肥压栏对市场的压力 ...

湖南慈利县东岳观镇彩球村大田坑溶洞外景。 今年3月，湖南省张家界市慈利县溇水长潭河段发生水华现象，当地居民自发寻找污染源，揭露慈利县 部分岩溶洞穴遭人为排污的问题。 接到村民来信，记者近日赴慈利县调查了解到，当地在溶洞生态管理方面存在监管短板，一些村民和养 殖企业环保意识淡薄，长期向溶洞倾倒垃圾或污水。 截至6月15日17时，慈利县共摸排岩溶洞穴2079个，发现部分岩溶洞穴存在疑似污染物。目前，溶洞污 染的清理工作正在推进，但还面临专业人员紧缺、作业难度较大等困难。当地群众呼吁健全监管机制、 大田坑溶洞里，发现村民丢弃的垃圾。 以上图片均为本报记者申智林摄 补齐政策短板、强化源头治理，防止溶洞成为监管盲区。 一些村民将溶洞作为垃圾填埋场 网友曝光的受污染溶洞主要有两个，分别为东岳观镇彩球村九组的大田坑溶洞和通津铺镇长峪铺村十五 组的杨家坡溶洞。据慈利县通报，前者深约70米，直径约15米，洞内有陈年垃圾；后者深约150米，最 窄处直径约1.5米，洞内有陈年垃圾和污水。 6月9日，记者从地面俯视大田坑溶洞，依然可见塑料包装袋、破旧布料等垃圾。村民黄先生住所离大田 坑溶洞仅约200米。2010年，村里修建了一条到溶 ...

我们如何展望猪价。 结合猪周期=效率周期+能繁周期的框架来看，我们认为效率周期影响在25年仍然存在， 但或明显小于往年，因此年中价格或稳中偏强。但三季度中后期猪价下行压力加大，猪价或将开启下降通道。 仔猪价格历史规律清晰明了，6月份左右将从高点回落。天热猪价就要下跌？这一逻辑在过去三年的夏季都不 成立，反而出现了肥标价差上升和猪价的上涨，其背后是天热对供需都有影响。此外，集团场的压栏增重是因 为市场存在大猪缺口，当前仍明显高于历史的肥标价差说明这一缺口并未得到充分补充。体重不是核心矛盾， 若短期降重则反而会带来特定阶段的肥猪缺口的扩大。 周期仍在，产能去化是当前主题。 上半年猪价的平稳并非常态，猪周期仍在，行业结构并未稳固。当前处于 猪价下行及产能去化阶段。随着仔猪、肥猪价格的回落，去化基础将更为坚实。从去化节奏上看，1、关注价 格的下跌及行业亏损情况；2、关注政策；3、25年养殖密度高于24年，年末冬季疫病大概率较24年严重。 报告导读： 我们提出了有别于市场的研究框架，并在过往到验证。基于此，我们认为猪 价在未来或先稳后降，并在年末降至低位。产能去化是行业当前主题，关注价格、政 策、疫病的催化。考虑当前行 ...

农林牧渔 行 业 及 产 业 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证券分析师 盛瀚 A0230522080006 shenghan@swsresearch.com 研究支持 朱珺逸 A0230521080004 zhujy@swsresearch.com 胡静航 A0230524090002 hujh@swsresearch.com 联系人 朱珺逸 (8621)23297818× zhujy@swsresearch.com 2025 年 06 月 22 日 关注宠物食品 618 销售表现，降重出栏延 续猪价偏强震荡 看好 —— 农林牧渔周观点（2025.6.16-2025.6.22） 本期投资提示： 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 ⚫ 本周申万农林牧渔指数下跌 3.1%，沪深 300 下跌 0.5%。个股涨幅前五名：邦基科技（24.7%）、晨光生物 （13.4%）、ST 天山（4.2%）、ST 景谷（3.8%）、中牧股份（2.6%），跌幅前五名：安德利（-18.7%）、中宠股 份（-13.4%）、晓鸣股份（-11.3%）、辉隆股份（-10.7%）、佩蒂股份（-10.0%）。投资分析意见：猪价预 ...

期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货生猪周报 1 周度观点及策略 2 期现市场 3 产能 4 供给端 5 需求端 6 成本及利润 周度观点及策略 基本面观点 20250622 蒋琴 交易咨询号：Z0014038 从业资格号：F3027808 0769-22110802 审核：陈小国 交易咨询号：Z0021111 情绪支撑 期价重心上移 期现市场 u 现货：周内生猪现货价格偏强运行，周度重心有所回升。据我的农产品网数据显示，全国生猪出栏均价为14.12元/公斤，较上周价 格上涨0.15元/公斤，环比上涨1.07%，同比下降23.63%，低价区报13.50元/公斤。随着猪价跌至阶段性低位，养殖端缩量挺价，二 育进场积极性小幅提高，对短期价格有支撑。不过当前供需基本面未有实质性改善，且随着气温升高，终端消费进一步转弱，集团 场降重增量叠加社会场积极出栏，市场供需延续宽松。 u 产能：据国家统计据数据显示，2025年4月末能繁母猪存栏为4038万头，较24年12月末的4078万头减少40万头，同比降幅为1.3%； 据了解当前养殖户大多选择主动淘汰母猪来应对下半年仔猪市场的不确定性。能繁母猪小 ...

行业报告 | 行业研究周报 农林牧渔 证券研究报告 1、生猪板块：行业盈利空间持续压缩，重视生猪板块预期差！ 1）猪价低位震荡&仔猪价格继续回落。截至6 月21 日，全国生猪均价 14.37 元/kg，较上周末下跌 0.28%（智农通），本周行业自繁自养盈利约 92 元/ 头，较前期大幅缩窄（5 月头均盈利160 元/头）；本周7kg 仔猪和50kg 二元母猪价格为443 元/头和 1619 元/头，仔猪价格较高点回落超200 元/头。 供应端，本周出栏均重为 128.28kg（环比-0.42%），150kg 以上生猪出栏占比为4.74%（环比-0.08pct），近期降重趋势明确但绝对体重仍处历史同期高 位。需求端，上周价格跌至年内低点后，多数屠企低价分割意愿增强，本周屠宰样本日均宰杀量环比+1.96%。但短期来看，高温期季节性消费淡季， 拖累整体鲜品走货难度增加。近期天气炎热或加速前期大猪出栏，猪价或呈季节性走弱趋势，行业盈利空间持续压缩，或加强去化逻辑。 2）重视生猪板块低估值、预期差！重视优秀企业的盈利能力！在 25 年猪价持续低位&政策引导情况下，后续产能去化容易程度及复产难度或再度提 升，产能有望波 ...

Group 1: Pet Economy - The pet economy continues to show high growth, with over 400 pet brands achieving sales growth of over 100% year-on-year during the "618" shopping festival [1] - The number of pet transaction users increased by 32% year-on-year, while new pet owners grew by 39% [1] - Top brands in various pet food categories include Royal Canin and Maffidi for cat and dog dry food, and Maffidi and Zeal for cat and dog snacks/wet food [1] Group 2: Pig Prices - The average price of external three yuan pigs rose to 14.22 yuan/kg, a week-on-week increase of 1.43% [2] - The average price of piglets decreased to 31.85 yuan/kg, down 3.16% week-on-week [2] - The average weight of market pigs decreased slightly to 128.28 kg, while the inventory rate of frozen products increased to 14.04% [2] Group 3: Grain Prices - Prices for corn, soybean meal, and wheat have increased, with corn averaging 2417.06 yuan/ton (up 0.47%), soybean meal at 3015.14 yuan/ton (up 1.59%), and wheat at 2441.67 yuan/ton (up 0.46%) [3] - Weather conditions and trade dynamics are influencing corn prices, while soybean meal prices are affected by supply concerns from the U.S. and geopolitical tensions [3] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The pig farming sector is expected to enter a long-term profit growth phase after inventory reduction, with recommended companies including Juxing Agriculture, Shennong Group, and Muyuan Foods [4] - The post-cycle sector is seeing a recovery in feed and veterinary demand, with companies like Haida Group and Ruipu Biotech recommended [4] - The planting chain is showing positive fundamentals with rising grain prices, suggesting investment opportunities in companies like Suqian Agricultural Development and Beidahuang [4] - The pet food industry is in a growth phase, with increasing recognition of domestic brands and recommended companies including Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co. [4]