Group 1: Precious Metals - The precious metals sector is experiencing a correction due to the CME raising margin requirements, leading to a decrease in speculative sentiment and a drop in prices for silver, platinum, and palladium, with gold also following suit [1] - Short-term outlook remains positive for precious metals, driven by potential political events in the Americas around New Year's that may trigger safe-haven demand, alongside inflows into ETFs due to interest rate cuts [1] - Long-term view suggests that the process of de-dollarization will continue, and investors are encouraged to hold positions despite market volatility [1] Group 2: Copper - Copper prices have risen, with a supply-demand tightness expected in 2026 due to lowered production forecasts from Freeport and Teck Resources, alongside anticipated increases in U.S. government spending [2] - The recommendation is to buy on dips, as current adjustments in copper prices present buying opportunities [2] Group 3: Aluminum - The aluminum sector is expected to benefit from the implementation of a national subsidy plan in 2026, which aims to stimulate demand for consumer goods [2] - Supply disruptions are anticipated due to maintenance at the Mozal aluminum plant, while demand is constrained by high prices and environmental production limits [2] - Overall, the recommendation is to buy aluminum and aluminum equities on dips, given the expected supply disturbances and potential demand growth [2] Group 4: Cobalt - Cobalt prices have increased across the board, with significant rises in electrolytic cobalt and other cobalt products due to tight supply conditions and increased trading activity [3] - The domestic raw material supply remains structurally tight, providing solid support for prices [3] Group 5: Lithium - Lithium prices have surged, driven by favorable signals from domestic new energy vehicle subsidies and anticipated production resumption from major suppliers [3] - The recommendation is to buy on dips, as the market is expected to maintain a downward inventory trend amid stable demand [3] Group 6: Investment Recommendations - Companies to watch include Xingye Silver Tin, Xiyu Co., Huaxi Nonferrous, New Jinlu, Dazhong Mining, Guocheng Mining, Zhongkuang Resources, Shengda Resources, Chifeng Gold, Zijin Gold International, Zhaojin Gold, Shenhuo Co., and Zijin Mining [4]

Group 1 - The aluminum sector experienced a significant upward trend on January 6, with Chang Aluminum reaching its daily limit increase [2] - China Aluminum surged over 8%, hitting a 15-year high [2] - Other companies such as Shenhuo Co., Tianshan Aluminum, and Nanshan Aluminum also saw increases in their stock prices [2]

1. Report Industry and Date - The report is about the aluminum industry, specifically an "Aluminum Daily Report" [1] - The report date is January 6, 2026 [2] 2. Research Team - The non-ferrous metals research team includes Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, and Peng Jinglin, with their respective contact information and futures qualification numbers provided [3] 3. Market Review and Operational Suggestions - Despite the lack of news in the aluminum market after the New Year's Day holiday due to the US raid on Venezuela, both LME and SHFE aluminum prices continued to rise in a macro - optimistic atmosphere. LME aluminum exceeded and stood above $3000, and SHFE aluminum rose by over 4% to 23,645 yuan/ton on the first trading day after the holiday, with total positions increasing by more than 45,000 lots to 711,000 lots [8] - Spot trading was sluggish due to high aluminum prices. The discounts in East China were - 220, in Central China were - 450, and in South China were - 280 [8] - The domestic electrolytic aluminum smelting industry maintained high profits, leading to a slight increase in domestic operating capacity. Overseas disruptions were frequent, such as the uncertain renewal of the power contract of a Mozambique aluminum plant. Attention should be paid to the progress of Indonesian capacity expansion [8] - The operating rate of aluminum processing enterprises was weakened by environmental restrictions and high aluminum prices, especially in core consumption areas like Central China where environmental control was tightened, leading to direct shrinkage of spot demand and a rapid increase in domestic aluminum ingot inventories to 684,000 tons [8] - In the medium term, aluminum prices are likely to rise due to loose liquidity and the strong performance of the gold and copper sectors. After the holiday, the enthusiasm of SHFE aluminum funds for long positions was ignited. It is recommended to take a long - position approach at low prices, although short - term fundamental support is limited [8] 4. Industry News - Nineteen air - conditioning enterprises and research institutions, including Midea, Haier, and Xiaomi, jointly launched the implementation of "aluminum replacing copper" standards. Some brand stores said they would launch aluminum household air - conditioning products in 2026 at the earliest, while others had no such plan [9] - Lizhong Group's Mexican factory's second - phase project of 1.8 million ultra - lightweight aluminum alloy wheels has been initially put into production. The third Thai aluminum alloy wheel factory's annual production capacity of 3 million cast - spun aluminum alloy wheels is expected to be put into production next year. High - performance aluminum alloy new material projects in Chongqing, Huai'an, Changchun, and Thailand will be put into production from the fourth quarter of this year to next year [10] - India's state - owned National Aluminium Company (Nalco) plans to start mining the Pottangi bauxite mine in Odisha in June 2026. It is expanding the fifth production line at its Damanjodi alumina refinery, which will increase the annual capacity by 1 million tons to 3.275 million tons [10] - In the first 11 months of this year, China's automobile production and sales both exceeded 31 million, with a year - on - year increase of over 10%. The production and sales of new energy vehicles were both close to 15 million, with a year - on - year increase of over 30%. New energy vehicle exports reached 2.315 million, doubling year - on - year [10]

Core Viewpoint - Minfa Aluminum's stock price has shown fluctuations, with a recent increase of 2.20% but a decline over the past five and twenty trading days, indicating volatility in the market [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - As of January 6, Minfa Aluminum's stock price is 4.64 CNY per share, with a market capitalization of 4.355 billion CNY [1]. - Year-to-date, the stock has increased by 3.34%, but it has decreased by 3.33% over the last five trading days and 6.45% over the last twenty trading days [2]. - Over the past sixty days, the stock price has increased by 33.72% [2]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Minfa Aluminum reported a revenue of 1.283 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 20.37% [2]. - The company experienced a net loss of 8.1134 million CNY during the same period, representing a year-on-year decline of 128.51% [2]. Group 3: Business Overview - Minfa Aluminum, established on September 15, 1997, and listed on April 28, 2011, specializes in the research, production, and sales of architectural aluminum profiles, industrial aluminum profiles, and aluminum templates [2]. - The company's revenue composition includes 97.02% from aluminum profile sales, 1.22% from aluminum template leasing and installation, 1.10% from other sources, 0.61% from aluminum template sales, and 0.05% from water treatment agents [2]. - The company is categorized under the non-ferrous metals industry, specifically in industrial metals and aluminum, and is associated with concepts such as low prices, the Belt and Road Initiative, 5G, new energy vehicles, and solar energy [2]. Group 4: Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, Minfa Aluminum had 35,900 shareholders, a decrease of 1.10% from the previous period, with an average of 23,963 circulating shares per shareholder, an increase of 1.12% [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 163 million CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 37.545 million CNY distributed over the last three years [3]. - Among the top ten circulating shareholders, the Jin Yuan Shun An Yuan Qi Flexible Allocation Mixed Fund holds 3.2645 million shares, a decrease of 35,500 shares from the previous period [3].

Group 1 - The social security fund appeared in the top ten circulating shareholders of Nanshan Aluminum and Kelun Pharmaceutical in the fourth quarter of last year [1] - The social security fund's 114 combination is the fifth largest circulating shareholder of Nanshan Aluminum, holding 164.3432 million shares, which accounts for 1.43% of the circulating shares [1] - The social security fund's 416 combination is the tenth largest circulating shareholder of Kelun Pharmaceutical, holding 13.9445 million shares, which accounts for 1.07% of the circulating shares [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the stock index, at the beginning of the year, institutional allocation funds are expected to flow back into the market, and with the unchanged policy support for the capital market, the medium - to long - term strategy is mainly to go long on dips [2][3]. - For treasury bonds, the improvement of market expectations for the economy may put pressure on the bond market. Although the central bank maintains an attitude of caring for funds, the bond market is expected to be weak and volatile in the first quarter, mainly affected by the spring rally in the stock market, government bond supply, and interest - rate cut expectations [4][6]. - For precious metals, there may be a short - term significant correction in January, but it does not mean the end of the upward cycle of gold and silver. In the long term, there are expectations of loose fiscal and monetary policies [7][8]. - For non - ferrous metals, most non - ferrous metals are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost, and market sentiment, with different trends. For example, copper prices are expected to slow down in their upward trend; aluminum prices are expected to be volatile and strong; zinc prices are expected to be volatile in the medium term and strong in the short term; lead prices are expected to be weak in the short term; nickel prices may have bottomed out in the short term; tin prices are expected to fluctuate with market sentiment; and the prices of some non - ferrous metal products such as stainless steel and casting aluminum alloy also have their own trends [10][11][13] [16][17][18]. - For black building materials, steel prices are expected to continue to oscillate in the bottom range; iron ore prices are expected to oscillate, with upside space limited by high inventory and supply expectations and downside supported by restocking expectations; glass prices may have some upward potential; and the supply - surplus pattern of soda ash has not changed fundamentally [32][33][35]. - For energy chemicals, different products have different trends. For example, rubber is recommended to be observed; the valuation of heavy - oil products in crude oil is expected to increase; methanol is considered to have the feasibility of going long on dips; urea is recommended to take profits on rallies; and the trends of pure benzene, styrene, and other products are also affected by factors such as cost, supply, and demand [49][50][55]. - For agricultural products, the short - term logic of rising pig prices is strong, but the medium - term support may collapse; egg prices have limited upside and downside space; the prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to oscillate; the current fundamentals of oils and fats are weak, but the medium - and long - term expectations are optimistic; sugar prices may rebound after the northern hemisphere's harvest; and cotton prices are recommended to go long on dips after a correction [78][79][83]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index - **Market Information**: The CSRC will strengthen the coordination of administrative, criminal, and civil actions to combat financial fraud. Goldman Sachs recommends overweighting Chinese stocks, expecting a 15% - 20% annual increase in 2026 and 2027. The basis ratios of stock - index futures are provided [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: At the beginning of the year, institutional allocation funds are expected to flow back into the market, and with policy support, the medium - to long - term strategy is to go long on dips [3]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: The prices of Treasury bond futures contracts have different changes. The National Development and Reform Commission has introduced policies for Yangtze River protection projects. The central bank conducted 135 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 4688 billion yuan [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The improvement of economic expectations may put pressure on the bond market. Although the central bank maintains an attitude of caring for funds, the bond market is expected to be weak and volatile in the first quarter, mainly affected by the spring rally in the stock market, government bond supply, and interest - rate cut expectations [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: The prices of Shanghai gold and silver, and COMEX gold and silver have increased. Weak US manufacturing PMI data and geopolitical issues have strengthened the expectations of the Fed's loose monetary policy, leading to a short - term increase in precious - metal prices [7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: There may be a short - term significant correction in January, but it does not mean the end of the upward cycle of gold and silver. In the long term, there are expectations of loose fiscal and monetary policies [8]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: The price of LME copper has reached 13,000 US dollars for the first time. The price of domestic copper has continued to be strong, with changes in inventory and basis [10]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The upward trend of copper prices is expected to slow down, with support from supply - side factors and pressure from demand - side factors [11]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: The prices of domestic and international aluminum have accelerated their upward movement, with changes in inventory and basis [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Aluminum prices are expected to be volatile and strong, affected by factors such as supply - side disturbances and the high prices of precious metals and copper [13]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The prices of zinc futures and spot have changed, with changes in inventory and basis [14][15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Zinc prices are expected to be volatile in the medium term and strong in the short term, affected by factors such as inventory and supply - demand relationships [16]. Lead - **Market Information**: The prices of lead futures and spot have changed, with changes in inventory and basis [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Lead prices are expected to be weak in the short term, affected by factors such as inventory and market sentiment [17]. Nickel - **Market Information**: The price of nickel has oscillated, with changes in spot premiums and cost factors [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term bottom of nickel prices may have appeared, and it is recommended to observe in the short term [18]. Tin - **Market Information**: The price of tin has increased, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [20][21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Tin prices are expected to fluctuate with market sentiment, and it is recommended to observe [22]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: The price of carbonate lithium has increased, with changes in futures prices and inventory [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The fundamentals of carbonate lithium are expected to improve, but there are concerns about demand if prices remain high. It is recommended to observe or take a light - position attempt [23]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The price of alumina has decreased, with changes in inventory and basis [24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to observe. If there is no actual production - reduction action, short positions can be considered on rallies [26]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The price of stainless steel has decreased, with changes in inventory and basis [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to consider going long on dips and pay attention to the implementation of policies [28]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of casting aluminum alloy has accelerated its upward movement, with changes in inventory and basis [29]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Casting aluminum alloy prices are expected to be volatile and strong, affected by cost and supply - side factors [30]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil have decreased, with changes in inventory and basis [32]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Steel prices are expected to continue to oscillate in the bottom range, affected by factors such as supply, demand, and macro - policies [33]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The price of iron ore has increased, with changes in inventory and basis [34]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate, with upside space limited by high inventory and supply expectations and downside supported by restocking expectations [35]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The price of glass has decreased, and the price of soda ash has decreased. There are changes in inventory and basis [36][38]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Glass prices may have some upward potential, and the supply - surplus pattern of soda ash has not changed fundamentally [37][38]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon have decreased, with changes in inventory and basis [39]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The future trends of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are affected by factors such as market sentiment, cost, and supply - side disturbances [41][42]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The price of industrial silicon has decreased, and the price of polysilicon has increased, with changes in inventory and basis [43][46]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Industrial silicon prices are expected to oscillate, and polysilicon prices are expected to be volatile, affected by factors such as supply, demand, and market sentiment [44][47]. Energy Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: The price of rubber has oscillated and increased, with different views from bulls and bears [49][50]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to observe and partially close the hedging position of buying RU2605 and selling RU2609 [53]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The price of crude oil has decreased, and the prices of refined - oil products have also changed, with changes in inventory [54]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The valuation of heavy - oil products is expected to increase [55]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices of methanol have changed [56]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Methanol is considered to have the feasibility of going long on dips [57]. Urea - **Market Information**: The regional spot and futures prices of urea have changed, with a certain basis [58]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to take profits on rallies [59]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene have changed, with changes in cost, supply, demand, and basis [60]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is considered that the non - integrated profit of styrene has room for upward repair, and it is recommended to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [61]. PVC - **Market Information**: The price of PVC has decreased, with changes in cost, supply, demand, and inventory [62][63]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to short on rallies before significant production cuts in the industry [64]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The price of ethylene glycol has decreased, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [65]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - demand pattern of ethylene glycol needs to be improved through increased production cuts, and the valuation may need to be compressed in the medium term [66]. PTA - **Market Information**: The price of PTA has decreased, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [67]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: PTA is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory - accumulation stage after short - term destocking. It is recommended to pay attention to the risk of correction in the short term and the opportunity of going long on dips in the medium term [69]. Para - Xylene - **Market Information**: The price of para - xylene has decreased, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [70]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: PX is expected to maintain a small inventory - accumulation pattern before the maintenance season. It is recommended to pay attention to the risk of correction in the short term and the opportunity of going long on dips in the medium term [71]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The price of PE has changed, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [72]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [73]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The price of PP has changed, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [74][75]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - surplus pattern of PP may change in the first quarter of next year, and the price may bottom out [76]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Information**: The prices of live pigs in different regions have changed, with different supply and demand situations in the north and south [78]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term logic of rising pig prices is strong, but the medium - term support may collapse. It is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to the support of far - month contracts [79]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The prices of eggs have changed, with stable supply and different digestion speeds in the terminal market [80]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Egg prices have limited upside and downside space. It is recommended to short on rallies [81][82]. Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures have changed, with changes in spot prices and inventory [83]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to oscillate, affected by factors such as import costs and inventory [84]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The prices of oils and fats futures have decreased, with changes in spot prices and inventory [85][86]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current fundamentals of oils and fats are weak, but the medium - and long - term expectations are optimistic. The prices are not far from the bottom range [87][88]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The price of sugar futures has increased, with changes in spot prices and production data in different regions [89][90]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Sugar prices may rebound after the northern hemisphere's harvest, and the short - term downside space of domestic sugar prices is limited [91]. Cotton - **Market Information**: The price of cotton futures has changed, with changes in spot prices, supply, demand, and inventory [92]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to go long on cotton after a correction, affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships and policy expectations [93].

Industry Overview - The core logic supporting the surge in aluminum prices is a tight balance between supply and demand, with domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity reaching 44.46 million tons, nearing the 45 million tons capacity ceiling, and only an estimated 550,000 tons of new capacity expected by 2026 [1] - On the supply side, projects in Indonesia and India are experiencing slow capacity release due to power and political factors, with an expected annual increase of only 1.3 million tons [1] - Demand is being driven by the accelerated "aluminum replacing copper" trend in the air conditioning and home appliance sectors, as well as new demand from emerging fields such as AI and energy storage [1] Company Insights - Xinjiang Zhonghe's main products include high-purity aluminum, electronic aluminum foil, electrode foil, aluminum products, and alloy products, with a market share of approximately 40% for high-purity aluminum [3] - China Aluminum has the largest alumina production capacity in the world [4]

证券代码：603271 证券简称：永杰新材 公告编号：2026-002 永杰新材料股份有限公司 关于全资子公司签订日常经营重大 合同的公告（一） 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容 的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： ● 合同类型及金额：永杰新材料股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）全资子公司浙江永杰铝业有限公司 （以下简称"永杰铝业"或"买方"）与中铝国际贸易集团有限公司（以下简称"中铝国贸"或"卖方"）签订 合同编号为"2025-GMJT-HJB-ALX-XS-00036"《铝合金扁锭年度销售合同》（以下简称《销售合同》 或"合同"）。合同约定买方自2026年1月1日至2026年12月31日期间，每月向卖方购入产品，全年共计约 100,000吨（以实际订单为准），产品单价根据月度市场铝价及合同条款确定，具体数量按每月采购订 单下达，并按批次结算货款。如按预计数量及市场价格估算，合同期限内预计产生的总金额超过人民币 20亿元（根据各批次采购量据实结算），达到《上海证券交易所股票上市规则》（以下简称"《上市规 则》"）规定的披露标准。 ● ...

证券研究报告|专题报告 有色金属 行业评级 强大于市 2026年1月5日 供给有约束需求有韧性，铝价中枢或上移 ——铝行业专题报告 证券分析师： 王保庆 执业证书编号：S0210522090001 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 华福证券 华福证券 投资要点 2 华福证券 华福证券 Ø 供需：供给有约束，需求有韧性。供给端国内面临产能天花板强约束，海外供应受制于能源供应瓶颈，需求端传统板块趋稳 ，新兴领域强劲，储能、机器人及智能制造等新兴领域对铝材的需求快速扩张，电解铝供需紧平衡格局加剧； Ø 宏观：美联储降息预期仍在，宏观经济压制减轻。美联储9月正式开启降息周期，美国26年面临中期选举和美联储主席人事 更替，关注宽货币+宽财政组合可能； Ø 库存：全球电解铝库存处于历史同期低位。截至2025年12月31日，全球电解铝库存145万吨； Ø 总结：紧平衡格局延续，铝价中枢或上移。短期，供需面对铝价底部有支撑，降息预期下预计铝价偏强；中长期，国内天花 板+能源不足持续扰动，同时新能源需求仍保持旺盛，紧平衡或致铝价中枢上移。 Ø 个股：关注天山、宏创、云铝、神火、华通、宏桥及中孚等标的。 Ø 风险提示：美联储降息不及 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The alumina market may be in a stage of slightly converging supply and stable demand, suggesting light - position oscillatory trading [2]. - The Shanghai aluminum market may be in a stage of slightly increasing supply and off - season demand, with aluminum prices maintaining high - level oscillations due to positive macro expectations. It is recommended to go short - term long at low prices with a light position [2]. - The cast aluminum alloy market may be in a stage of converging supply and weakening demand, and light - position oscillatory trading is suggested [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 23,645 yuan/ton, up 720 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract was 2,770 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan [2]. - The LME electrolytic aluminum three - month quotation was 3,021 US dollars/ton, up 24 US dollars; the LME aluminum inventory was 509,250 tons, down 2,500 tons [2]. - The closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract was 22,520 yuan/ton, up 665 yuan; the registered warehouse receipts of the cast aluminum alloy on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 69,620 tons, up 32 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Shanghai Non - Ferrous Network A00 aluminum was 23,310 yuan/ton, up 850 yuan; the spot price of alumina in Shanghai Non - Ferrous was 2,610 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The average price (tax - included) of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide was 23,100 yuan/ton, up 650 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - Ferrous Market AOO aluminum was 22,520 yuan/ton, up 820 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Alumina production in the current month was 813.80 million tons, up 27.30 million tons; the demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) in the current month was 705.96 million tons, down 24.27 million tons [2]. - The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan metal scrap was 17,500 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; the average price of crushed raw aluminum in Shandong metal scrap was 17,050 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The import volume of primary aluminum was 146,109.72 tons, down 101,652.54 tons; the export volume of primary aluminum was 53,047.69 tons, up 28,474.13 tons [2]. - The production of aluminum products was 593.10 million tons, up 23.70 million tons; the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 57.00 million tons, up 7.00 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 70.00 million tons, up 9.17 million tons; the export volume of aluminum alloy was 3.06 million tons, down 0.03 million tons [2]. - The automobile production was 351.90 million vehicles, up 24.00 million vehicles; the national real estate climate index was 91.90, down 0.52 [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum for 20 days was 17.05%, up 3.38%; the historical volatility for 40 days was 13.95%, up 1.88% [2]. - The implied volatility of the at - the - money option of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 21.6%, up 0.0295; the call - put ratio of Shanghai aluminum options was 1.69, down 0.1008 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - In December 2025, China's manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing PMI, and comprehensive PMI were 50.1%, 50.2%, and 50.7% respectively, up 0.9, 0.7, and 1.0 percentage points month - on - month [2]. - In 2025, the sales volume of trade - in related commodities nationwide exceeded 2.6 trillion yuan, benefiting more than 360 million people [2]. - The final value of the eurozone's manufacturing PMI in December 2025 was 48.8, with the expected and previous values both being 49.2 [2]. - Multiple car companies announced their December 2025 and full - year results. BYD's new - energy vehicle sales in December 2025 were 420,398 units, a year - on - year decline of about 18.2%; the full - year cumulative sales were 4,602,436 units, a year - on - year increase of 7.73% [2].