1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for corn and corn starch is "Bullish" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, the spot price of corn continued to oscillate strongly, while the futures price declined slightly due to weak basis, increased hedging pressure, and stronger auction expectations. The energy demand is expected to recover moderately, which will significantly exceed the decline in deep - processing demand. Corn spot prices are expected to continue to rise, and it is recommended to hold the existing 07 long positions, 7 - 9 positive spreads, and 7 - 11 positive spreads strategies [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Review 3.1.1 Corn - Analyzes the performance of corn's futures and spot prices, basis, spot price trends, and 7 - 9 and 7 - 11 month spreads [13][18][19] 3.1.2 Corn Starch - Examines the futures and spot prices, basis, the spread between starch and corn futures, the spot price spread in Weifang, and the by - product income compensation of corn starch [21][22][28] 3.2 Corn Fundamental Information Weekly Observation 3.2.1 Receipt and Auction of Reserves - Focuses on the corn auction and procurement information on the Sinograin online bidding platform [30][32] 3.2.2 Inventory - Covers the grain inventory, foreign - trade inventory, domestic - trade inventory in southern ports, and the inventory in northern ports of corn, as well as the corn inventory and consumption of major deep - processing enterprises [34][37][43] 3.2.3 Substitutes - Analyzes the price spread between wheat and corn and the theoretical substitution advantage spread of wheat for corn [50][51] 3.2.4 Demand - Considers the profitability of corn - to - ethanol production, the operating rate of corn alcohol, and the average weight of slaughtered pigs [53][54][56] 3.3 Corn Starch Fundamental Information Weekly Observation 3.3.1 Profitability - Analyzes the profitability and profit of corn starch enterprises [59][61] 3.3.2 Supply - Focuses on the operating rate and processing volume of corn starch enterprises [63][64] 3.3.3 Demand - Examines the operating rates of fructose syrup, maltose syrup, corrugated paper, and box - board paper in the starch sugar industry [67][69][70] 3.3.4 Inventory - Covers the available inventory and the seasonal trend of registered warehouse receipts of corn starch enterprises [73][74]

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.05.16」 菜籽类市场周报 新年度供需格局好转 拖累菜系盘面价格 研究员：许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0017638 联系电话：0595-86778969 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场分析 「 周度要点小结」 总结及策略建议 Ø 菜油： Ø 策略建议：短线参与为主。 3 Ø 行情回顾：本周菜油期货震荡收跌，主力09合约收盘价9277元/吨，较前一周-78元/吨。 Ø 行情展望：短期市场聚仍焦于加菜籽旧作库存偏紧的现实。不过，USDA报告预计全球菜籽 2025/26年度产量为8955.8万吨，同比增加445.9万吨，期末库存预计为923.2万吨，同比增加8.1 万吨。新年度供需格局好转，远期价格承压。其它方面，由于原油期价冲高回落，且市场担忧美 豆油生物燃料需求不及预期，市场情绪快速降温，美豆油高位回落。同时，棕榈油产地逐渐步入 季节性增产季，棕榈油价格仍将承压。国内方面，菜籽进口到港量下滑，菜油供应端压力减弱。 且关税增加后，加菜油的进 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The overall view of the agricultural products sector in commodity futures is that the prices of soymeal and palm oil are showing signs of weakness. The internal and external linkages of soybeans have strengthened after the price difference repair, and the decline in US soybean futures prices has put pressure on the domestic soybean market. The increase in the arrival of imported soybeans and the gradual recovery of oil refinery operating rates have led to a short - term decline in the basis of soymeal, with its futures prices showing a weak and volatile trend. The overall trend of edible oil futures is weak, and the lack of driving factors for palm oil has caused it to be dragged down by the soybean oil market, resulting in a weak operation of its futures prices [5][7]. 3. Summary by Variety Soymeal (M) - **Intraday View**: Weak and volatile [5] - **Medium - term View**: Volatile [5] - **Reference View**: Weak and volatile [5] - **Core Logic**: After the repair of the price difference between domestic and foreign soybeans, the internal - external linkage has increased. The decline in US soybean futures prices due to concerns about the demand for biodiesel made from US soybean oil has put pressure on the domestic soybean market. The increase in the arrival of imported soybeans and the gradual recovery of oil refinery operating rates, along with the incomplete recovery of the oil refinery's shipping rhythm, have led to a short - term decline in the basis of soymeal [5]. Palm Oil (P) - **Intraday View**: Weak [7] - **Medium - term View**: Volatile [7] - **Reference View**: Weak [7] - **Core Logic**: The overall trend of edible oil futures is weak, with some short - term funds leaving the market. The US soybean oil futures hitting the daily limit down due to the lower - than - expected demand for biodiesel made from US soybean oil has dragged down the domestic soybean oil futures prices. Palm oil lacks driving factors and is dragged down by the soybean oil market, resulting in a weak operation of its futures prices [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the soybean and peanut industries is neutral [3][5] Report's Core View - The domestic soybean price fluctuated yesterday, with the remaining domestic soybean supply decreasing, which is the main support for the market. The temporary supply shortage of imported soybeans has been alleviated, but there is no significant increase at present, so the price still has support. The remaining supply of farmers is limited, and the price quotes are chaotic, but the overall sentiment of holding out for higher prices is strong. Long - term attention should be paid to the state reserve rotation policy, farmers' spring sowing, and remaining supply situation [3] - The domestic peanut price rose yesterday. As of May 8, 2025, the national average price of common peanuts decreased by 0.24% compared with last week. The domestic peanut trading atmosphere is poor, the supply from production areas is limited, middlemen purchase on demand, and most of them hold a wait - and - see attitude towards the existing inventory. Traders purchase on demand, and the overall trading atmosphere is dull. Recently, major oil mills have started operations one after another, and it is expected that they will make stable purchases in the short term, which will effectively relieve the pressure on production areas to sell goods and boost market sentiment [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the soybean 2505 contract yesterday was 4,172.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 2.00 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 0.05% [1] - Spot: The basis of edible soybean spot is A05 - 12, a change of + 2 from the previous day, an increase of 32.14% [1] Market Information Summary - On Wednesday, most contracts of soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) closed higher, with the benchmark contract up 0.3%. Only the May contract closed slightly lower. At the close, soybean futures ranged from a decline of 9.25 cents to an increase of 5.25 cents. The May contract fell 9.25 cents to close at 1,067 cents/bu; the July contract rose 5.25 cents to close at 1,077.75 cents/bu; the November contract rose 1.75 cents to close at 1,061.25 cents/bu [2] - On May 15, the loading price of national standard first - class 39% protein medium - sized tower grain in Harbin, Heilongjiang was 2.08 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day; in Baoqing, Shuangyashan, Heilongjiang, it was 2.06 yuan/jin, unchanged; in Fuyin, Jiamusi, Heilongjiang, it was 2.07 yuan/jin, unchanged; in Nehe, Qiqihar, Heilongjiang, the loading price of national standard first - class 41% protein medium - sized tower grain was 2.18 yuan/jin, unchanged; in Nenjiang, Heihe, Heilongjiang, it was 2.16 yuan/jin, unchanged; in Hailun, Suihua, Heilongjiang, it was 2.17 yuan/jin, unchanged [2] Peanut Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the peanut 2505 contract yesterday was 8,226.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 10.00 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 0.12% [3] - Spot: The average spot price of peanuts was 8,300.00 yuan/ton, a change of + 40.00 yuan/ton from the previous day, an increase of 0.48%. The spot basis was PK05 - 226.00, a change of + 10.00 from the previous day, a decrease of 4.24% [3] Market Information Summary - Currently, the quoted price of Baisha common peanuts in Huangludian, Henan is 4.20 - 4.25 yuan/jin; the quoted price of Haohua common peanuts in Junan, Linyi, Shandong is about 3.90 - 4.00 yuan/jin; the quoted price of 308 common peanuts in Changtu, Liaoning is 4.00 - 4.10 yuan/jin; the quoted price of Huayu 23 common peanuts in Xingcheng is 4.18 - 4.20 yuan/jin; the purchase price of 308 common peanuts in Jilin production area is 4.05 - 4.15 yuan/jin [3]

国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：压力阶段性释放，寻找下方支撑 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：美豆油情绪泡沫，油脂风险加剧 | 2 | | 豆粕：生柴政策忧虑、美豆收跌，或偏弱震荡 | 4 | | 豆一：或跟随豆类品种偏弱震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：震荡运行 | 6 | | 白糖：偏弱运行 | 7 | | 棉花：关注整体市场情绪的变化 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：震荡调整 | 10 | | 生猪：博弈持续 | 11 | | 花生：偏强震荡 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025年05月16日 2025 年 5 月 16 日 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 棕榈油：压力阶段性释放，寻找下方支撑 豆油：美豆油情绪泡沫，油脂风险加剧 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棕榈油主力 | 元/吨 | 8 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the soybean meal and corn sectors is "cautiously bearish" [3][5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For soybean meal, the supply of Brazilian new - season soybeans is increasing, and the domestic soybean supply is expected to be sufficient in the future. With the recovery of oil mill operations, the soybean meal inventory will gradually rise. The supply pressure is emerging, and the support from import costs will weaken, so the soybean meal price will face significant pressure. Also, the positive outcome of the China - US talks may reduce the impact of the trade war on US soybeans and domestic soybean meal [2] - For corn, the supply of domestic corn is abundant as the remaining grain at the grassroots level is almost exhausted, but the port inventory is still high. The demand side is weak as deep - processing enterprises are facing losses, and feed enterprises are increasing the proportion of wheat substitution [4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2509 contract was 2923 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton (+0.31%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2509 contract was 2537 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton (+1.12%) [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 2980 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was 2960 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 3000 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton. The rapeseed meal spot price in Fujian was 2500 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton [1] - Brazilian soybean exports: In May 2025, Brazil's soybean exports are expected to reach 14.268 million tons, 13% higher than last week's forecast. From January to April, Brazil exported 40.42 million tons of soybeans, accounting for 41.5% of last year's total exports [1] Market Analysis - Supply: Brazilian new - season soybeans are arriving at Chinese ports, and the arrival volume will exceed 10 million tons from April to July. The supply pressure is emerging, and the import cost support will weaken [2] - Demand: Not specifically mentioned, but the overall supply - side situation indicates potential downward pressure on prices [2] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [3] 3.2 Corn Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2507 contract was 2342 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton (-0.59%); the corn starch 2507 contract was 2689 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton (-0.48%) [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2750 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - French corn: In the 2024/25 season, France's corn production is expected to be 13.973 million tons, 15.9% higher than the previous season. Exports are expected to be 4.702 million tons, up 11.5%, and the ending inventory is estimated to be 3.472 million tons, 2.5% higher than last month's forecast [3] Market Analysis - Supply: The remaining grain at the grassroots level is almost exhausted, but the port inventory is still high [4] - Demand: Deep - processing enterprises are facing losses, and feed enterprises are increasing the proportion of wheat substitution. The downstream提货 speed is slow [4] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [5]

商品研究 | 走势评级: | 白糖 | 震荡 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 棉花 | 震荡 | | 数据速览 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 外盘报价 | | 2025-05-14 | 2025-05-15 | 涨跌幅 | | | 美白糖（美元） | 18.08 | 17.66 | -2.32% | | | 美棉花（美元） | 65.55 | 65.49 | -0.09% | | 现货价格 | | 2025-05-14 | 2025-05-15 | 涨跌幅 | | | 白糖（南宁） | 6185.0 | 6165.0 | -0.32% | | | 白糖（昆明） | 5995.0 | 6000.0 | 0.08% | | | 棉花指数 328 | 3281 | 3280 | 0.28% | | | 棉花（新疆） | 14350.0 | 14450.0 | 0.70% | | 价差速览 | | 2025-05-14 | 2025-05-15 | 涨跌幅 | | | SR01-05 | -321.0 | -320.0 | -0.31% | ...

Group 1 - CBOT corn futures increased by 0.5%, reaching 447.75 cents per bushel [1] - The United States is seeking to discuss agricultural and economic issues with the European Union [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - side pressure of meal products is limited, and they are running strongly. The international soybean supply pressure is improving, but the price pressure in Brazil still exists. The domestic meal products are expected to have limited further weakening space, and the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal may widen [2][5][9]. - In the short - term, the domestic futures market of meal products is in a volatile state. The short - term support for the US soybean market is obvious, and the supply and demand of the international soybean market are in a state of dynamic adjustment [4][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Today, the US soybean futures prices dropped significantly, mainly affected by the news of possible adjustments to the US biodiesel policy. The domestic futures market was in a volatile state, with the rapeseed meal market stronger than the soybean meal market. The spread between soybean meal contracts was narrowly volatile, while the spread between rapeseed meal contracts was relatively strong [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: The near - term support for the US soybean market is obvious. The export of US old - crop soybeans is expected to be stable, and the adjustment pressure on the balance sheet is small. The selling progress of Brazilian farmers has accelerated but is still at a low level in the same period of history. Brazilian soybean exports may increase due to weak domestic crushing profits. The domestic crushing in Argentina may slow down, and soybean exports may increase [5]. - **Domestic Market**: The domestic spot market has improved. The oil refinery operating rate has decreased, but the supply is sufficient. The inventory of soybean meal is relatively low, and the spot price is not likely to weaken rapidly. The demand for rapeseed meal is strong in the near - term, but the supply pressure still exists [7]. 3.3 Macroeconomic Analysis - The reduction of tariffs between China and the US has a limited impact on the meal products market. The domestic soybean supply is less affected by policies due to the expansion of new supply sources, but the long - term price of soybean meal is still supported by policies [8]. 3.4 Logic Analysis - The international market pressure has weakened, and the pressure transmitted to the domestic market is limited. The domestic supply is relatively loose, and the demand is good, so the domestic soybean meal is not likely to weaken further. The long - term supply of rapeseed meal is tightening, but the demand is weak, and the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal may widen [9]. 3.5 Trading Strategies - **Unilateral Trading**: Buy on dips. - **Arbitrage**: Long M11 and short M01. - **Options**: Sell a wide - straddle strategy [10][11].

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Title: Peanut Daily Report [2] - Report Date: May 15, 2025 [2][3] - Researcher: Liu Dayong [2] - Researcher's Futures Practitioner Certificate Number: F03107370 [2] - Researcher's Investment Consulting Certificate Number: Z0018389 [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 3: Core Viewpoints - Peanut spot prices are expected to be relatively stable in the short - term due to stable oil mill purchase prices, high peanut production in 2024, and weak downstream demand [5][10]. - The peanut oil market is relatively strong, while peanut meal has been stable recently, and oil mills are theoretically profitable [10]. - PK510 (10 peanut) is trading new crops, with many uncertainties such as weather [10]. Group 4: Data Summary Futures Market | Futures Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate | Volume | Volume Change Rate | Open Interest | Open Interest Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PK504 | 8124 | -12 | -0.15% | 7 | -50.00% | 41 | -6.82% | | PK510 | 8226 | -10 | -0.12% | 32,813 | -23.92% | 93,491 | 0.81% | | PK601 | 8134 | 6 | 0.07% | 363 | 46.96% | 2,777 | 0.11% | [3] Spot Market - Peanut Spot: Henan Nanyang 8200 yuan/ton, Shandong Jining 8000 yuan/ton, Shandong Linyi 8000 yuan/ton, Northeast Jilin Fuyu 308 general goods 4.15 yuan/jin, Liaoning Changtu 4.1 yuan/jin, Henan Baisha general goods 4.05 - 4.25 yuan/jin, Shandong Junan 4.0 yuan/jin, imported Sudan refined rice 7950 yuan/ton [3][5] - By - products: Rizhao peanut meal 3300 yuan/ton, Rizhao soybean meal 2920 yuan/ton, peanut oil 15000 yuan/ton, Rizhao first - grade soybean oil 8060 yuan/ton [3] Price Difference - Peanut Inter - period Spread: PK01 - PK04 spread is 10 with a change of 18; PK04 - PK10 spread is - 102 with a change of - 2; PK10 - PK01 spread is 92 with a change of - 16 [3] Group 5: Market Analysis - Peanut prices in Henan and Northeast China are stable, and it is expected that peanut spot prices will be relatively stable in the short - term [5] - Peanut oil mill purchase prices are stable, with the mainstream transaction price at 7350 - 7750 yuan/ton and the theoretical break - even price at 8110 yuan/ton. Peanut oil prices are stable, and soybean oil prices have risen [5] - Rizhao soybean meal spot prices are stable, and the unit protein price difference between soybean meal and peanut meal is high, with peanut meal being weak in the short - term [8] Group 6: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Go long on 10 peanut at low prices with a volatile trading idea [11] - Inter - period Spread: Do positive spreads on peanut 10 - 1 at low prices [12] - Options: Sell pk510 - p - 7800 [13] Group 7: Related Attachments - Figure 1: Shandong peanut spot price (unit: yuan/ton) - Figure 2: Peanut oil mill crushing profit (unit: yuan/ton) - Figure 3: Peanut oil price (unit: yuan/ton) - Figure 4: Peanut spot and continuous contract basis (unit: yuan/ton) - Figure 5: Peanut 10 - 1 contract spread (unit: yuan/ton) - Figure 6: Peanut 3 - 10 contract spread (unit: yuan/ton) [15][19][23]