Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral to bearish [2] - Sugar: Neutral [5] - Pulp: Neutral [7] Core Views - The global cotton market in the 25/26 season is expected to be in a supply - loose pattern. US cotton futures prices are likely to oscillate, and domestic cotton prices are supported in the short - term but face pressure in the long - term [2] - The global sugar market is in an increasing production cycle, suppressing ICE raw sugar prices in the long - run. Brazilian raw sugar may rebound in the short - term, and Zhengzhou sugar's upside is limited [4][5] - The pulp supply pressure persists, and the demand is weak. The pulp price may remain at the bottom in the short - term [7] Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2509 contract was 13,785 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton (+0.18%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,175 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,193 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton. As of July 5, Brazil's cotton harvest progress was 7.3%, up 2.3 percentage points week - on - week, 5% slower than last year [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the supply - side weather narrative is insufficient this year, and the global cotton market is supply - loose. US cotton futures prices are expected to oscillate. Domestically, the commercial inventory is decreasing rapidly, supporting prices in the short - term. However, the new cotton production is likely to increase, and the demand in the off - season is weak. In the long - term, the new cotton listing in the fourth quarter will suppress prices [2] Strategy - Adopt a neutral to bearish strategy. Recommend shorting distant - month contracts on rallies [2] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2509 contract was 5747 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton (-0.12%) from the previous day. Spot: The sugar price in Nanning, Guangxi was 6020 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan was 5865 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. Brazil exported 67.73 tons of sugar and molasses in the first week of July, a 34.63% decrease from last year [3] Market Analysis - ICE raw sugar prices are under long - term pressure due to the increasing production cycle. However, there may be a short - term rebound. Zhengzhou sugar's spot price is firm due to low inventory, but the upside is limited by potential imports [4][5] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. Expect the sugar price to oscillate weakly in the third quarter, and focus on the arrival rhythm of imported sugar [5] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2509 contract was 5086 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton (+0.24%) from the previous day. Spot: The price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5950 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5100 yuan/ton, unchanged. The import pulp market prices showed mixed trends [5][6] Market Analysis - Supply: The wood pulp import increased in the first half of 2025, and domestic production capacity is expected to increase. The port inventory is high, and the supply pressure remains. Demand: Affected by policies and the off - season, the demand is weak, and the improvement in the second half of the year is limited [7] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. The supply - demand contradiction is difficult to ease, and the pulp price may stay at the bottom in the short - term [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - 豆一: ★★★ [1] - 豆油: ★★★ [1] - 棕榈油: ★★★ [1] - 豆粕: ★★★ [1] - 菜粕: ★★★ [1] - 菜油: ★★★ [1] - 玉米: ★★★ [1] - 生猪: ★★★ [1] - 鸡蛋: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - 农产品市场各品种表现分化，短期需关注天气、政策和经贸谈判等因素指引，中长期部分品种受产能影响存在价格压力 [2][3][4] Summary by Category Soybean and Its Products - 国产大豆主力合约减仓价格止跌反弹，东北产区天气利于生长，政策端购销双向交易成交好；进口美豆产区天气未来一周利于生长，短期关注天气和政策 [2] - 美国大豆优良率正常，未来两周产区降雨波动、温度略低，特朗普政府税率威胁执行推迟，连粕震荡，国内油厂压榨量高、豆粕库存上升，中美贸易不确定多，大连豆粕先以震荡对待 [3] - 棕榈油增仓上涨，豆油减仓震荡，6月马来西亚棕榈油产量降、需求增、库存降，关注MPOB报告和欧洲及黑海葵花籽天气，三季度海外棕榈油处增产周期，长期植物油逢低多配，短期关注政策和产区天气 [4] Rapeseed and Its Products - 菜粕低开高走小涨，菜油为植物油板块最弱，基本面围绕外盘菜籽产区天气和经贸谈判，国外产区天气风险降低菜籽承压，菜系单边趋势不明显，菜粕弱势震荡，菜系油粕比短期有向上波动空间 [6] Corn - 大连玉米震荡，市场聚焦阶段性供应，7月受中储粮拍卖影响供应上量价格走低，基层贸易商增加供应，山东现货增加，南北港库存攀升，需求疲软，玉米期货或继续震荡 [7] Livestock Products - 生猪期价回落，现货稳定，前期盘面上涨现货下跌后基差收窄，6月能繁母猪存栏上升，中长期猪价有下行压力 [8] Eggs - 鸡蛋主力08合约减仓反弹，7月为淡旺季转折点但今年中秋晚旺季或延后，现货报价稳定，8月合约对现货升水近千元，关注旺季启动和升水收敛，长期产能去化不足蛋价未见底 [9]

Group 1: Overall Information - The report is a soft commodity daily report dated July 9, 2025, covering白糖 (sugar), 棉花 (cotton), 红枣 (red dates), and 苹果 (apples) [1] Group 2: Sugar Market Core View - ICE raw sugar futures declined on Tuesday due to potential increases in production in India and Thailand. Zhengzhou sugar slightly rebounded, maintaining a pattern of strong domestic and weak international markets recently [3] Futures Prices and Spreads - SR01 closed at 5606 with a daily increase of 0.3% and a weekly increase of 0.47%; SR03 closed at 5578 with a daily increase of 0.23% and a weekly increase of 0.45%; SR05 closed at 5558 with a daily increase of 0.25% and a weekly increase of 0.58%; SR07 closed at 5780 with a daily increase of 0.31% and a weekly decrease of 0.3%; SR09 closed at 5779 with a daily increase of 0.56% and a weekly increase of 0.23%; SR11 closed at 5669 with a daily increase of 0.48% and a weekly increase of 0.60%. SB closed at 16.15 with a daily decrease of 0.62% and a weekly increase of 2.87%; W closed at 465.9 with a daily decrease of 0.58% and a weekly increase of 3.58% [4] - SR01 - 05 was 45, down 2 from the previous day and 7 from the previous week; SR05 - 09 was -203, unchanged from the previous day and up 28 from the previous week; SR09 - 01 was 158, up 2 from the previous day and down 21 from the previous week; SR01 - 03 was 24, down 2 from the previous day and down 3 from the previous week; SR03 - 05 was 21, unchanged from the previous day and down 4 from the previous week; SR05 - 07 was -218, down 9 from the previous day and up 28 from the previous week; SR07 - 09 was 15, up 9 from the previous day and unchanged from the previous week; SR09 - 11 was 105, up 1 from the previous day and down 17 from the previous week; SR11 - 01 was 53, up 1 from the previous day and down 4 from the previous week [4] Basis - For Nanning - SR01, the basis was 431, down 11 from the previous day and 63 from the previous week; Nanning - SR03 basis was 455, down 13 from the previous day and 66 from the previous week; Nanning - SR05 basis was 476, down 13 from the previous day and 70 from the previous week; Nanning - SR07 basis was 258, down 22 from the previous day and 42 from the previous week; Nanning - SR09 basis was 273, down 13 from the previous day and 42 from the previous week; Nanning - SR11 basis was 378, down 12 from the previous day and 59 from the previous week. For Kunming - SR01, the basis was 276, down 1 from the previous day and 23 from the previous week; Kunming - SR03 basis was 300, down 3 from the previous day and 26 from the previous week; Kunming - SR05 basis was 321, down 3 from the previous day and 30 from the previous week; Kunming - SR07 basis was 103, down 12 from the previous day and 2 from the previous week; Kunming - SR09 basis was 118, down 3 from the previous day and 2 from the previous week; Kunming - SR11 basis was 223, down 2 from the previous day and 19 from the previous week [11] Import Prices and Profits - The quota - in price of Brazilian sugar imports was 4457, down 30 from the previous day and up 161 from the previous week; the quota - out price was 5662, down 39 from the previous day and up 211 from the previous week. The quota - in price of Thai sugar imports was 4498, down 30 from the previous day and up 152 from the previous week; the quota - out price was 5715, down 39 from the previous day and up 199 from the previous week [14] Group 3: Cotton Market Core View - This year, domestic cotton inventory has decreased rapidly. Low inventory supports cotton prices, and the valuation of cotton prices has been repaired. However, negative feedback from downstream consumption is gradually accumulating, and the pressure of finished product inventory is gradually emerging, putting pressure on the upside of cotton prices. In the short term, cotton prices may fluctuate in the range of 13600 - 13900. Attention should be paid to whether the quota policy can be implemented and further adjustments to the China - US trade agreement [16] Futures Prices - Cotton 01 closed at 13785, up 25 with a daily increase of 0.18%; Cotton 05 closed at 13770, up 20 with a daily increase of 0.15%; Cotton 09 closed at 13830, up 45 with a daily increase of 0.33%; Yarn 01 closed at 19955 (a special situation with a - 100% change); Yarn 05 closed at 19915 (a special situation with a - 100% change); Yarn 09 closed at 19985, up 20 with a daily increase of 0.1% [17] Spreads - The cotton basis was 1408, down 33; Cotton 01 - 05 was 10, down 10; Cotton 05 - 09 was -35, down 15; Cotton 09 - 01 was 25, up 25; The flower - yarn spread was 6190, down 35; The domestic - foreign cotton spread was 1561, up 96; The domestic - foreign yarn spread was -625, down 15 [18] Group 4: Red Dates Market Core View - Currently, the downstream is in the off - season for consumption, and the trading atmosphere is relatively light. The supply of old red dates is sufficient. As the critical fruiting period approaches, the market focus is gradually shifting to new - season red dates. Early July is the physiological fruit - dropping stage of grey dates. Attention should be paid to the fruiting situation of new red dates, and there may still be potential for weather - related speculation. However, the high inventory of old red dates may suppress the futures market. If the price center moves up, the registration of red date warehouse receipts may accelerate, putting pressure on red date prices [21] Group 5: Apple Market Core View - Under the impact of seasonal fruits, the sales speed is limited. Due to the busy farming season in Shandong, the packaging quantity is limited. The apple supply in Shaanxi is concentrated in northern Shaanxi, and the secondary production areas are basically cleared. For new - season apples, the opening prices of extremely early - maturing varieties such as Tengmu and Qinyang are the same as last year. Due to the small supply, their impact on the market is limited [26] Futures and Spot Prices - AP01 closed at 7625 with a daily increase of 0.78% and a weekly decrease of 0.25%; AP03 closed at 7608 with a daily increase of 0.63% and a weekly decrease of 0.4%; AP04 closed at 7653 with a daily increase of 0.16% and a weekly decrease of 0.42%; AP05 closed at 7712 with a daily increase of 0.33% and a weekly decrease of 0.41%; AP10 closed at 7743 with a daily increase of 1.11% and a weekly decrease of 0.01%; AP11 closed at 7572 with a daily increase of 0.81% and a weekly decrease of 0.04%; AP12 closed at 7605 with a daily increase of 0.76% and a weekly decrease of 0.01. The price of Qixia first - and second - grade 80 apples was 4.1 with no daily or weekly change; the price of Luochuan semi - commodity 70 apples was 4.8 with no daily or weekly change; the price of Jingning paper - bagged 75 apples was 6 with no daily change and a 0.00% weekly change; the price of Yiyuan paper - bagged 70 apples was 2.4 with no daily or weekly change; the price of Wanrong paper - plus - film 75 apples was 2.8 with no daily or weekly change. The futures market profit was -666, down 7.88% from the previous day and 4.86% from the previous week; the theoretical delivery price was 8600 with no daily or weekly change; the main contract basis was 934, up 6.5% from the previous day and 3.78% from the previous week [27] Spreads - AP01 - 05 was -121, up 34.44% from the previous day and 11.01% from the previous week; AP05 - 10 was 29, down 1066.67% from the previous day and up 93.33% from the previous week; AP10 - 01 was 92, down 1.08% from the previous day and 2.13% from the previous week [27]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - The investment strategy for both the soybean meal and corn sectors is cautiously bearish [3][5] Group 2: Core Views - For soybean meal, in the short term, the supply of domestic soybeans remains abundant, and if the weather for new - season US soybeans remains favorable, a bumper harvest is expected [2] - For corn, the current supply is relatively low, and prices are constrained by wheat prices. New - season corn may face potential production cuts, and prices may enter a weak and volatile pattern during the listing period [4] Group 3: Market News and Key Data Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2509 contract was 2935 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton (-0.07%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2509 contract was 2576 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton (-0.12%) [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 2850 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu and Guangdong, it was 2780 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. The rapeseed meal spot price in Fujian was 2580 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] - US soybean: As of July 6, the good - to - excellent rate was 66%, the emergence rate was 96%, the flowering rate was 32%, and the pod - setting rate was 8% [1] Corn and Corn Starch - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2509 contract was 2321 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton (-0.21%); the corn starch 2509 contract was 2676 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton (-0.15%) [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2760 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton [3] - US corn: As of July 6, the good - to - excellent rate was 74%, the silking rate was 18%. Brazil's daily average corn export volume in the first week of July was 3000 tons, an 80% decrease compared to the previous year [3] Group 4: Market Analysis Soybean Meal - In the near term, the arrival of soybeans at ports remains above 10 million tons, and the inventory of soybeans and soybean meal in oil mills is increasing rapidly. The supply of domestic soybeans will remain abundant until the new - season US soybeans are on the market. The planting area of new - season US soybeans has decreased significantly, but the current and future weather is favorable, and a bumper harvest is expected [2] Corn - Currently, the supply of corn is relatively low, and prices are constrained by wheat prices, so they are expected to remain volatile. New - season corn may face production cuts, and during the listing period, prices may enter a weak and volatile pattern under the influence of selling pressure [4] Group 5: Strategy - The strategy for both soybean meal and corn sectors is to be cautiously bearish [3][5]

Core Viewpoint - CBOT corn futures fell below $4 per bushel due to concerns over demand stemming from President Trump's latest tariff measures, while crop growth conditions in the U.S. suggest potential increases in yield [1] Group 1: Market Reaction - Chicago corn futures dropped by 1.7% to $3.9675 per bushel, marking the lowest level since August [1] - The decline in corn prices reflects heightened market anxiety regarding demand forecasts [1] Group 2: Government Actions - The U.S. government announced tariffs on several major agricultural trading partners, including Japan and South Korea [1] - Although tariffs were announced, Trump postponed the implementation date to August 1 [1] Group 3: Crop Conditions - Current crop growth conditions in the U.S. indicate a potential increase in corn production [1]

豆类 | 日报 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 豆类 豆类油脂 姓名：毕慧 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F0268536 投资咨询证号：Z0011311 电话：0411-84807266 邮箱：bihui@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协 会授予的期货从业资格证 书，期货投资咨询资格证书， 本人承诺以勤勉的职业态 度，独立、客观地出具本报 告。本报告清晰准确地反映 了本人的研究观点。本人不 会因本报告中的具体推荐意 见或观点而直接或间接接收 到任何形式的报酬。 2025 年 7 月 8 日 豆类油脂 专业研究·创造价值 豆类震荡 棕榈油引领油脂反弹 核心观点 7 月 8 日，豆类震荡，油脂反弹。豆一期价止跌反弹，期价承压于 5 日均 线，资金变化不大；豆二期价止跌反弹，期价承压于 5 日均线压力，资金变 化不大；豆粕期价震荡偏弱，期价承压于 5 日均线，资金变化不大；菜粕期 价震荡偏弱，期价承压于 5 日和 10 日均线压力，资金变化不大。油脂期价震 荡偏强，豆油期价震荡偏强，期价暂获 5 日均线支撑，资金变化不大；棕榈 油期价涨幅超 2%，期价暂获 5 日和 1 ...

| 期货价格(主力日收盘) | 单位 | 最新 | 前一日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 周趋势图 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 豆粕 | 元/吨 | 2937 | 2954 | -17 | -0. 58% | | | 现货价格 | 单位 | 最新 | 前一日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 周趋势图 | | 全国均价 | 元/吨 | 2906 | 2916. 29 | -10. 29 | -0. 35% | | | 张家港 | 元/吨 | 2840 | 2840 | 0 | 0. 00% | | | 杂粕现货均价 | 单位 | 最新 | 前一日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 周趋势图 | | 花生粕 | 元/吨 | 3337.5 | 3337.5 | 0 | 0. 00% | | | 葵花粕 | 元/吨 | 2187.5 | 2202. 5 | -15 | -0. 68% | | | 芝麻粕 | 元/吨 | 3775 | 3775 | 0 | 0. 00% | | | 棕榈粕 | 元/吨 | 1333. 33 | 1333. 33 | 0 | 0. 00% ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The palm oil price has risen sharply due to expected positive monthly supply - demand data from MPOB, while the corn price continues to decline under the pressure of auctions and wheat substitution. Other agricultural products also show different trends based on their respective supply - demand and market conditions [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Agricultural Products Sector Overview - Palm oil has a strong upward trend as the market anticipates a positive monthly supply - demand report from MPOB due to falling production and strong export demand. Corn continues to decline under the pressure of continuous auctions of imported corn by Sinograin and the obvious substitution advantage of wheat for feed use. Soybean meal fluctuates weakly with increasing supply and inventory. Apples see an expanded decline due to the off - season and competition from summer fruits [1]. 3.2 Variety Strategy Tracking 3.2.1 Palm Oil - The palm oil main 2509 contract has risen strongly to a more than 3 - month high. The market expects the MPOB monthly report to be positive as high - frequency data shows reduced supply and increased demand. Technically, it shows strength. The recommended strategy is to hold light - position long positions, with support at 8500 and resistance at 8700 [2]. 3.2.2 Corn - The corn main 2509 contract continues to reach new lows. Sinograin's continuous auction of imported corn and the substitution advantage of wheat for feed use put pressure on the price. Technically, it shows weakness. The recommended strategy is to hold light - position short positions, with support at 2300 and resistance at 2330 [3]. 3.2.3 Eggs - The egg main 2508 contract continues to decline due to high production capacity and supply. The egg - laying hen inventory is at a high level, and the demand is in the off - season. Technically, it shows weakness. The recommended strategy is to hold light - position short positions, with support at 3400 and resistance at 3450 [6]. 3.2.4 Pigs - The pig 2509 contract fluctuates and rebounds. The supply of suitable - weight pigs has improved, but there are still speculations about reduced July slaughter due to earlier piglet diarrhea. The demand lacks highlights. The recommended strategy is to hold long positions, with support at 14200 and resistance at 14400 [8]. 3.2.5 Soybean Meal - The soybean meal 2509 contract fluctuates and declines. Good weather in US soybean - producing areas and high domestic soybean arrivals lead to high supply and inventory. Technically, it shows weakness. The recommended strategy is to hold light - position short positions, with support at 2920 and resistance at 2945 [9][11]. 3.2.6 Soybean Oil - The soybean oil main 2509 contract rebounds, driven by the rise of palm oil. However, the abundant supply of imported soybeans and high inventory may limit the rebound. Technically, it shows weakness. The recommended strategy is to hold light - position short positions, with support at 7858 and resistance at 7966 [12][15]. 3.2.7 Cotton - The cotton main 2509 contract fluctuates and closes up, running at a high level. The continuous reduction of commercial inventory and low imports support the price, but the off - season in the textile industry restricts the demand. Technically, it shows an upward trend. The recommended strategy is to hold light - position long positions, with support at 13700 and resistance at 13900 [16]. 3.2.8 Sugar - The Zhengzhou sugar main 2509 contract continues to decline due to the pressure of long - position liquidation. The decline of the overseas raw sugar price and the expected increase in imported sugar put pressure on the domestic price. Technically, it shows weakness. The recommended strategy is short - term trading, with support at 5725 and resistance at 5767 [18]. 3.2.9 Red Dates - The red date main 2601 contract fluctuates and closes down, with a slight adjustment. The suitable temperature in the main production area is conducive to fruit setting, but the off - season in consumption and high inventory put pressure on the price. Technically, there is still adjustment pressure. The recommended strategy is short - term trading after closing long positions, with support at 10330 and resistance at 10560 [21]. 3.2.10 Apples - The apple main 2510 contract drops significantly. The off - season and competition from summer fruits lead to slow sales. Technically, it shows weakness. The recommended strategy is to hold light - position short positions, with support at 7600 and resistance at 7672 [22][24].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The price of US soybean futures closed lower due to favorable crop weather forecasts in the US and trade - policy uncertainties. The domestic continuous - contract M09 of soybean meal continued its weak trend, and the spot market was also under pressure. The short - term spot price of soybean meal is expected to remain under pressure [15][16][17]. - For live pigs, the short - term supply is tight, leading to a relatively strong price fluctuation. However, in the later period, if the slaughter rhythm recovers, the price increase will slow down, and factors such as the off - season of consumption and medium - term supply pressure will restrict the upside space of prices [18]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - The main DCE soybean meal 2509 contract declined by 0.07% to 2935 yuan/ton, and the quotes of coastal mainstream regional oil mills decreased by 10 - 30 yuan/ton. The main DCE live pig 2509 contract rose by 0.21% to 14275 yuan/ton. The national average ex - factory price of ternary live pigs decreased by 0.11 yuan/kg to 14.85 yuan/kg. The overnight CBOT US soybean main contract dropped by 2.62% to 1021 cents/bushel [2]. 3.2 Weather in Main Producing Areas - There will be local to scattered showers in the US Midwest this week, with temperatures near or above normal. The current weather conditions generally support the growth of crops, but there are also wet and dry areas in the region [3][4]. 3.3 Macroeconomic and Industry News - In the week of July 27, 2025, the national major oil mills' soybean meal inventory increased by 18.91% week - on - week to 82.24 tons, and decreased by 24.04% year - on - year. - On July 8, the import cost of US soybeans remained unchanged, that of Brazilian soybeans remained unchanged, and that of Argentine soybeans decreased by 32 yuan. - On July 7, the national major oil mills' soybean meal sales volume increased by 2.11 tons to 8.45 tons, and the overall oil mill operating rate decreased by 2.15% to 64.01%. - As of July 4, 2025, the rapeseed inventory of coastal major oil mills decreased by 2.6 tons to 16.2 tons, the rapeseed oil inventory decreased by 1.14 tons to 10.01 tons, and the unexecuted contracts decreased by 0.5 tons to 12.6 tons. - As of July 7, 2025, the national imported soybean port inventory increased by 26.44 tons to 636.369 tons compared with June 30. - As of the week of July 3, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 389364 tons, an increase from the previous week. - The US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 66% as of July 6, in line with market expectations. - In June 2025, Brazil's soybean export volume was 1342 tons, the lowest in the same period in the past three years, and the daily average export volume decreased by 3.9% year - on - year. - Brazil's 2024/25 soybean sales reached 69.8% of the expected output, and 2025/26 sales reached 16.4% of the expected output. - The US announced differential tariff adjustments for 14 trading partners, which will take effect on August 1 [5][6][7][15][16]. 3.4 Data Charts - The report provides charts of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, live pig prices, and their basis, as well as charts of Chinese soybean and soybean meal inventories [10][11][14][15]. 3.5 Analysis and Strategies - **Soybean Meal**: The decline in US soybean futures prices was due to favorable weather and trade - policy impacts. The domestic continuous - contract M09 of soybean meal continued to be weak, and the spot market was also under pressure. The short - term spot price of soybean meal is expected to remain under pressure [15][16][17]. - **Live Pigs**: The short - term supply is tight, causing prices to fluctuate strongly. In the later period, if the slaughter rhythm recovers, the price increase will slow down, and consumption off - season and medium - term supply pressure will restrict the upside space [18].

农产品日报 | 2025-07-08 板块延续震荡，关注宏观扰动 棉花观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2509合约13760元/吨，较前一日变动-20元/吨，幅度-0.15%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆到 厂价15176元/吨，较前一日变动+6元/吨，现货基差CF09+1416，较前一日变动+26；3128B棉全国均价15201元/吨， 较前一日变动+1元/吨，现货基差CF09+1441，较前一日变动+21。 近期市场资讯，新棉生长方面，根据棉花信息网调查，截至6月30日，全疆棉花生长已进入开花盛期，开花果枝集 中在第四、五、六台，开花率约52.5%，较上周增加30.2个百分点。现阶段大部分棉田开始陆续打顶，预计7月上旬 基本结束。另外，7月1日，兵团第七师多个团场遭遇冰雹天气，部分棉田叶片和花蕾被击落，严重的造成棉杆折 断，但由于冰雹呈线性打击的特点，对整体棉花生长可能影响不大。后期需持续关注高温以及强对流天气的影响。 市场分析 昨日郑棉期价震荡收跌。国际方面，目前来看今年供应端天气的叙事性不足，考虑到巴西和中国的增产预期，25/26 年度全球棉市仍将处于供应偏松格局。由于美棉实播面积高于预 ...