转自：新华财经 银河证券：节后来看，假期期间港股市场与人民币汇率走强表现有助于提振投资者信心，A股市场或将 延续结构性行情。后续上行节奏还要观察政策预期与产业趋势突破，在上述因素支撑下，春季躁动行情 可能提前开启。同时，仍需关注海外地缘风险等不确定性因素的短期扰动。展望2026年，"十五五"开局 之年改革政策预期强化，人民币汇率向上等价格因素支撑流动性向好，市场信心有望得到提振。关注盈 利修复逻辑下，具备业绩兑现能力的科技龙头、受益于价格水平回暖预期的周期板块。 星石投资：近期热门题材反复发酵，市场情绪有望延续修复，股市或以结构性机会为主。由于处于数据 空窗期，资金预期和流动性因素对股市短期表现的影响或有所增加，需要关注股市成交量能的变化。中 期来看，相较于其他资产，权益类资产总体仍具有较好的投资性价比，预计今年市场或将逐步转为盈利 驱动，预计将有更多的行业进入业绩释放期，股市中的投资机会或将有所增加。 新华基金：跨年配置行情开启。（1）2025年末以来市场进入"春季躁动"行情阶段，机构资金持续流入 中证A500等宽基ETF，年末增量资金推动中小盘成长股活跃。AI、半导体、商业航天等方向在2025年 全年表现 ...

1月5日上午，格力电器发布声明，回应近期市场对空调涨价及"铝代铜"等问题的关切。 格力电器董事长董明珠亦多次围绕该话题进行表态。 2023年度股东大会上，针对铜价上涨对企业毛利的影响，董明珠提到已有部分空调企业采用"铝代铜"方 案，但铝在耐久性和稳定性方面无法得到保障，因此格力在没有百分之百的把握之前，不会采用该方 案。 2025年12月，她再次表示，格力对铝技术进行了多年研究，认为"铝代铜"具备可行性。但由于铝尚未达 到与铜同等的技术条件和保障标准，公司暂不采用这一方案。"所以我们并没有说不研究，我们一定研 究，直到铝能够完全替代铜，我一定上铝。"董明珠说。 针对行业内热议的"铝代铜"话题，格力电器在声明中强调，为满足格力家用空调十年免费包修的服务标 准，公司暂无"铝代铜"相关计划。未来若相关研究能完全满足格力质量和技术标准要求并正式应用，格 力将予以明确标注，充分保障消费者的知情权与选择权。 近年来，受铜价大幅上涨影响，部分空调企业为控制成本，开始探索以成本更低的铝替代铜作为原材 料，"铝代铜"成为行业焦点议题。 2025年12月23日，格力电器在深交所互动平台表示，铜是空调的核心原材料，占空调成本的20 ...

1月5日，据"格力文传"公众号，格力发布《关于近期市场关切问题的说明》。 近期，公司陆续收到投资者及媒体就部分企业推出空调涨价和"铝代铜"计划等相关问题的咨询，询问公司的 态度和计划。公司现说明如下： 格力积极响应2026年家电国家补贴政策，切实让利消费者。我们承诺，格力家用空调不涨价。同时，为满足 格力家用空调十年免费包修服务标准，我们暂无"铝代铜"相关计划。未来若相关研究能完全满足格力质量和 技术标准要求并正式应用，我们将予以明确标注，充分保障消费者的知情权与选择权。 责编：李丹 校对： 杨立林 版权声明 证券时报各平台所有原创内容，未经书面授权，任何单位及个人不得转载。我社保留追 究相关 行 为主体法律责任的权 利。 转载与合作可联系证券时报小助理，微信ID：SecuritiesTimes END 点击关键字可查看 潜望系列深度报道丨 股事会专栏 丨 投资小红书 丨 e公司调查 丨 时报会客厅 丨 十大明星私募访谈 丨 八大交易所，最 新发声！ 丨 黑天鹅突袭！影响有多大？ 丨 利好！上海，重大发布！ 丨 300658，明起停牌！重大资产重组 丨 一娃难 求→部分破发！"盲盒界的爱马仕"发生了什么？ 丨 ...

Group 1 - The core focus of the Central Economic Work Conference is to ensure a strong start for the "14th Five-Year Plan" by prioritizing domestic demand and building a robust domestic market [3][15] - The implementation of policies to expand domestic demand has shown significant results, with a focus on optimizing the "two new" policies and "two heavy" projects for 2026 [3][4] - The ice and snow economy is highlighted as a strong driver for consumption and domestic demand, with outdoor skiing searches increasing over threefold since December 2025 [5][6] Group 2 - The "old for new" consumption policy has led to a stable market growth, with sales of related products exceeding 2.6 trillion yuan in 2025, benefiting over 360 million people [6][7] - Investment in equipment and tools has seen a rapid increase, with a 12.2% year-on-year growth in equipment purchases from January to November 2025, contributing to overall investment growth [7][11] - The digital economy and new consumption models are emerging, with significant potential for growth in online retail and immersive consumer experiences [9][10] Group 3 - There is a strong emphasis on the need to boost consumption as a key driver of economic growth, with strategies to enhance consumer purchasing power and improve social security systems [13][14] - Effective investment is crucial for economic stability, with projected fixed asset investments exceeding 3.6 trillion yuan in 2025, focusing on infrastructure and public welfare projects [14][15] - The government aims to maintain reasonable investment levels and stimulate private investment to create a stable and predictable environment for economic development [14][15]

人民日报海外版记者 李婕 刚刚过去的2026年元旦假期，消费市场在政策红利中迎来"开门红"。 为满足元旦、春节消费需求，2026年第一批625亿元超长期特别国债支持消费品以旧换新资金计划 已经向地方下达。随着汽车、家电及数码和智能产品以旧换新政策落地，叠加元旦假期因素，多地线下 门店人气攀升、销售火热，消费市场迎来开年首波消费热潮。 提升重点消费品"得补率" "新年第一天就享受到'国补'。""家电换新，一件最多能补1500元，再叠加店铺优惠，价格相当划 算。""观望已久的智能眼镜进入补贴范围，时机再好不过。"新年伊始，许多消费者趁着"国补"果断出 手，将心仪之物收入囊中。 2026年消费品以旧换新政策有哪些特点？ 开年首日，"国补"政策落地，为消费市场注入满满活力。"元旦期间到店顾客明显增加，消费者大 多会主动询问产品能否享受'国补'，先看能效标识，再比较功能价格成为新消费习惯。"北京一家电门 店负责人说。记者走访北京多家数码产品门店发现，店内人气火爆，AI手机及智能手环、智能眼镜等 智能穿戴产品热度很高，消费者问询、试用络绎不绝，在部分热门品牌和主打产品前还排起了队伍。 近日，商务部等7部门联合印发《关于提 ...

Core Insights - In 2025, Shenzhen Stock Exchange listed companies distributed a total cash dividend of 547.56 billion yuan, maintaining a level above 500 billion yuan [2] - The trend of mid-term dividends is emerging, with 533 companies implementing mid-term dividends totaling 132.93 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.98% [2][5] Group 1: Policy and Governance - Policy guidance, improved profitability, and enhanced governance are key factors driving the increase in dividends among Shenzhen listed companies in 2025 [3] - The new "National Nine Articles" strengthens cash dividend regulation and incentivizes high-quality dividend-paying companies [3] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has issued guidelines to encourage cash dividends and support companies in establishing stable dividend policies [3][4] Group 2: Financial Performance - The overall profitability of Shenzhen companies has steadily improved, with total operating revenue reaching 15.72 trillion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year growth of 4.31% [3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders reached 903.02 billion yuan, up 9.69% year-on-year, with 2,169 companies reporting profits, accounting for 75.34% of the total [3] Group 3: Dividend Structure and Trends - The dividend scale and rhythm have shown positive changes, with a total cash dividend of 547.56 billion yuan in 2025, contributing to a cumulative dividend of over 2 trillion yuan during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [5] - Nearly 60% of companies that implemented mid-term dividends had a payout ratio exceeding 20%, with 105 companies exceeding 50% [5] - In 2025, 166 companies had a dividend yield exceeding 1%, and 108 companies had a yield exceeding 1.34%, attracting more long-term investments [5] Group 4: Sector Highlights - Leading companies in the consumer and financial sectors are actively fulfilling their dividend responsibilities, with notable distributions such as Wuliangye's mid-term dividend of 10.78 yuan per share totaling 10.01 billion yuan [6] - In the advanced manufacturing sector, companies like CITIC Special Steel and Weichai Power also announced significant mid-term dividends [7] - The trend of stable dividends is expected to enhance shareholder recognition and market acceptance, supporting the high-quality development of the capital market [7]

【CNMO科技消息】1月5日，格力电器官方发文称，格力积极响应2026年家电国家补贴政策，切实让利 消费者。公司承诺，格力家用空调不涨价。同时，为满足格力家用空调十年免费包修服务标准，公司暂 无"铝代铜"相关计划。未来若相关研究能完全满足格力质量和技术标准要求并正式应用，公司将予以明 确标注，充分保障消费者的知情权与选择权。 据CNMO了解，受原材料价格上涨等因素影响，此前已有空调企业宣布涨价。例如，2025年12月，安徽 美博智能电器集团在相关通知中表示，自2025年四季度以来，以铜为代表的大宗原材料价格持续高位运 行：沪铜主连价已突破90750元/吨，11月累计涨幅超3%，2025年全年涨幅达22%。同时三代制冷剂受配 额管控及需求增长影响，R32、R410A价格较年初分别上涨60%、40%。叠加新能源、光伏等行业对铜 材需求激增，上游供应不足、库存锐减，原材料成本压力已超出企业消化极限，空调整机成本持续攀 升。 而空调行业"铝代铜"问题近年来也引发了越来越多的关注。格力电器曾公开表示，铜是空调的核心原材 料，占空调成本的20%左右。尽管在同等情况下，铝材成本约为铜材的1/10（价格为1/3，密度为 1/ ...

Core Viewpoint - The current round of national subsidies is more focused compared to 2025, with stricter energy efficiency standards, which will help promote product structure upgrades in the industry, benefiting leading companies with a more complete layout of mid-to-high-end products [1]. Group 1: Policy Announcement - On December 29, 2025, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) announced the implementation of a large-scale equipment update and consumer goods replacement policy for 2026, explicitly supporting the replacement of old home appliances [2]. - On December 30, 2025, the NDRC announced that the first batch of 625 billion yuan in ultra-long-term special government bonds to support consumer goods replacement has been allocated in advance [2]. Group 2: Funding and Subsidy Details - The first batch of 625 billion yuan in support funds for the replacement program has been allocated, with the subsidy categories being more focused compared to 2025. The scale is slightly reduced from the 810 billion yuan allocated in the first batch for 2025 [3]. - The total scale of special government bonds for consumer goods replacement in 2025 was 3000 billion yuan, distributed in four batches, with the first batch accounting for approximately 27%. The estimated total subsidy scale for 2026 is around 2300 billion yuan [3]. Group 3: Subsidy Categories and Standards - The subsidy categories for 2026 have been narrowed from 12 categories in 2025 to 6 categories, focusing on essential appliances such as refrigerators, washing machines, televisions, air conditioners, computers, and water heaters [3]. - The subsidy for 2026 is limited to first-level energy efficiency products, with a uniform subsidy rate of 15%. Each consumer can receive a subsidy for one unit of each product category, with a maximum subsidy of 1500 yuan per unit [4]. - In comparison, the 2025 subsidy standards allowed for second-level energy efficiency products with a subsidy of 15% of the sales price, and first-level products with a 20% subsidy, capped at 2000 yuan per unit [4]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Recommendations include leading white goods companies such as Midea Group, Hisense Home Appliances, and Haier Smart Home; and leading black goods companies such as Hisense Home Appliances and TCL Electronics [4].

1月5日，格力电器通过官方渠道发布《关于近期市场关切问题的说明》，承诺"格力家用空调不涨价"，并再次重申公司暂无"铝代 铜"相关计划。 格力的表态并非无的放矢，背后是铜价创纪录上涨带来的全行业成本焦虑。国际市场上，LME铜价2025年全年涨幅达42.52%， 2025年12月29日盘中更是触及12960.9美元/吨的历史高位。 国内市场同样呈现强劲涨势，据生意社监测数据，2025年12月29日现货铜报价101053.33元/吨，单日上涨3.24%，首次突破10万元 关口，较年初的73830元/吨上涨36.87%，较2015年的周期低点涨幅接近2倍。 公开资料显示，中国是全球最大的空调生产与消费国，但约80%的铜依赖进口；与之形成鲜明对比的是，中国电解铝产量占全球 60%，原材料供应可控性更强。 从成本维度看，铜占空调原材料成本约21%，而当前LME铜价已突破每吨1万美元，而LME铝价仅3000美元/吨左右，铝的成本优 势显著，"铝代铜"因此被认为是降低生产成本的有效路径之一。 | W | | | | LME铝 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, due to the US military strike on Venezuela, the uncertainty of the international situation has significantly increased, which is expected to cause some disturbances to the prices of risk assets such as A - shares. If the conflict escalates, the market risk appetite may be further pressured [3]. - In the long - term, in 2026, the stock index is expected to continue to rise on the basis of 2025. Macroeconomic policies continue to exert force, and the moderate rebound of inflation may help improve corporate profit expectations. Capital market reform policies are expected to bring incremental funds to A - shares, and the role of Central Huijin as a "quasi - stabilization fund" will also support the market. Investors can wait for the geopolitical situation to become clear and the market risk appetite to recover before choosing to build long positions [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Economic and Corporate Earnings**: In December 2025, China's manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, and the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.2%, up 0.7 percentage points. The improvement was driven by the increase in working days and the effect of policy - based financial tools. On January 1, 2026, 62.5 billion yuan of national subsidy funds were issued, with specific subsidy plans for various products [3]. - **Macro Policy**: The new round of "national subsidies" is beneficial to consumption and equipment renewal, which is positive for the market [3]. - **Overseas Factors**: The US military strike on Venezuela has increased geopolitical risks, which may affect China's heavy oil processing and related downstream industries and increase the risk of economic and trade cooperation in Latin America. It will also cause disturbances to the prices of risk assets such as A - shares [3]. - **Liquidity**: Recently, the market trading volume has increased, and the margin trading balance has also risen. As of December 30, the A - share margin trading balance was 254.729 billion yuan, an increase of 13.57 billion yuan from the previous week [3]. - **Investment Viewpoint**: Short - term investment should be cautious, while long - term investment can consider going long after the geopolitical situation stabilizes [3]. 3.2 Stock Index Market Review - **Index Performance**: Last week, the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 fell 0.59% to 4629.9; the Shanghai 50 fell 0.47% to 3031.1; the CSI 500 rose 0.09% to 7465.6; the CSI 1000 fell 0.13% to 7595.3 [7]. - **Futures Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures decreased last week. For example, the trading volume of CSI 1000 futures decreased by 44.23%, and the open interest decreased by 5.63% [13]. - **Contract Premium and Discount**: As of December 31, all contracts of stock index futures were at a discount, with different discount rates for different contracts [18]. - **Cross - Variety Spread**: The spread between the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 and the Shanghai 50 was at a high historical level, while the spread between the CSI 1000 and the CSI 500 was at a low historical level [22]. 3.3 Stock Index Influencing Factors - Liquidity - **Central Bank Operations**: On the last trading day of 2025, the central bank's open - market operations continued to expand significantly and maintained a net injection. However, affected by the New Year's Day holiday, the main repurchase rates of deposit - taking institutions generally increased [24]. - **Margin Trading and Market Volume**: As of December 30, the A - share margin trading balance increased, and the financing purchase amount accounted for 11.8% of the total market turnover, at a high level in the past ten years. The average daily trading volume last week increased compared with the previous week [34]. 3.4 Stock Index Influencing Factors - Economic Fundamentals and Corporate Earnings - **Macroeconomic Indicators**: In 2025, GDP growth showed certain fluctuations, and indicators such as industrial added value, fixed - asset investment, and social consumer goods retail also had different trends. The manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs improved in December [37]. - **Real Estate**: The real estate market showed different trends in various indicators such as housing prices, sales volume, and investment [39]. - **Consumption**: The retail sales of consumer goods by enterprises above the designated size showed different growth rates in different categories [42]. - **Corporate Earnings**: The earnings indicators of major broad - based indexes and Shenwan primary industry indexes showed different performances [51][52]. 3.5 Stock Index Influencing Factors - Policy Driven - **Macro Policy**: The government has introduced a series of policies, including more active fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, to support economic development, consumption, and the real estate market [56]. 3.6 Stock Index Influencing Factors - Overseas Factors - **US Economic Data**: In November 2025, the US manufacturing PMI decreased, the non - manufacturing PMI increased, the consumer confidence index rose, the unemployment rate was 4.6%, and the number of new non - farm jobs increased. The PCE and CPI growth rates also changed [67][70]. - **Trump's Policies**: Trump's team has proposed a series of tariff policies, which have a certain impact on international trade and the global economic situation [76]. 3.7 Stock Index Influencing Factors - Valuation - **Index Valuation**: As of December 31, 2025, the rolling price - to - earnings ratios of the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300, Shanghai 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 were at different historical percentile levels [84]. - **Sector Valuation**: Different sectors had different price - to - earnings ratios and price - to - book ratios, and their historical percentile levels also varied [88].