2026 年 1 月 11 日 联合研究 光研集萃（2026 年 1 月第 1 期） ——光大周度观点一览 要点 策略周度观点：寻找好春季行情中的持续性亮点 对春季行情保持耐心，重点关注成长与小盘风格。在政策支持与产业热点频出的 共同作用下，本周市场延续了 12 月末以来的强势表现。短期我们认为市场热度 仍有望持续，不过需要关注 1 月中旬之后到春节前市场逐步降温的可能。从历史 规律来看，上证指数当年 1 月的涨跌幅与上一年 12 月的涨幅呈一定的"此消彼 长"特征，同时春节之前市场交易热度也将有所下行。预计春节之后市场或许会 迎来新一轮上行动力。对于春季行情，投资者应保持耐心。 结构层面上，成长风格与小盘风格通常在春季行情中明显占优，短期建议关注成 长与顺周期两条主线。成长主线建议关注商业航天、半导体产业链、AI 等方向； 顺周期主线建议关注有色金属、零售、社会服务等方向。 本周重点行业 计算机：整体来看，中国 AI 应用具备三大机遇：1）实业深耕：基于我国完整的 工业体系，为 AI 的发展提供高价值的现实世界数据/应用场景/能源供应，重点 关注拥有行业 Knowhow 和数据的公司；2）外展出海：AI 工 ...

Market Review - The A-share market started strong in 2026, with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving a record 16 consecutive days of gains, reflecting a rising market risk appetite, with growth and small-cap styles outperforming [2][3] - Daily trading volume in the A-share market exceeded 3 trillion yuan, with margin trading activity also high, as the margin balance surpassed 2.6 trillion yuan, setting a new historical high [2][4] - Key sectors such as commercial aerospace, satellite navigation, brain-computer interfaces, and nuclear fusion have shown significant performance, alongside rising prices in related commodities like non-ferrous metals [2][3] Market Outlook - The report suggests that the bull market may continue, with the A-share market entering a spring buying window, supported by better-than-expected PMI and inflation data from December [3][5] - The influx of external funds and increased willingness of market participants to invest are expected to sustain market momentum, with notable inflows from financing and foreign capital [4][5] - The report highlights the importance of upcoming events in the tech sector, particularly around the Spring Festival, which could further enhance market risk appetite [3][5] Sector Allocation - Focus on the expansion of themes in the technology sector, including AI applications, commercial aerospace, robotics, domestic substitution, and nuclear fusion [5] - Beneficiaries of the "anti-involution" trend and price increases, such as chemicals and non-ferrous metals, are also highlighted as areas of interest [5]

中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 策略研究 证券分析师：王君 (8610)66229061 jun.wang@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300519060003 证券分析师：徐沛东 (8621)20328702 peidong.xu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300518020001 证券分析师：郭晓希 (8610)66229019 xiaoxi.guo@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300521110001 证券分析师：徐亚 （8621）20328506 ya.xu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300521070003 证券分析师：高天然 | 观点回顾 4 | | --- | | 大势与风格 5 | | 中观行业与景气 7 | | 一周市场总览、组合表现及热点追踪 9 | | 风险提示 10 | tianran.gao@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300522100001 策略研究 | 证券研究报告 — 总量周报 2026 年 1 月 11 ...

Group 1 - The report identifies the second round of the commodity supercycle driven by the expansion of dollar credit cracks during the Kondratiev depression phase, suggesting that this phase will enhance the monetary attributes of commodities, particularly gold and industrial metals, as safe assets amid increasing geopolitical uncertainties [1][9][10] - Historical patterns indicate a rotation in the commodity supercycle: gold rises first, followed by industrial metals, oil, and finally agricultural products, with each phase influenced by geopolitical factors and economic conditions [2][14][16] - Current oil prices are deemed undervalued due to strategic oil inventories reaching historical lows, and a potential increase in oil prices is anticipated if the geopolitical situation, particularly the Russia-Ukraine conflict, eases by 2026 [3][21][23] Group 2 - The report outlines three key signals to watch for a potential reversal in oil prices: willingness of major oil-producing countries to negotiate production cuts, effective execution of production cuts, and strengthening of reduction agreements over time [4][27][28] - The analysis predicts that 2026 will mark a turning point towards prosperity, with a significant rise in global oil prices expected if the geopolitical tensions ease, leading to a renewed focus on commodities as safe assets [5][37] - Industry allocation recommendations include focusing on metals (gold, silver, copper, lithium), consumer sectors benefiting from wealth return and improved consumption tendencies, and high-end manufacturing sectors with export advantages [5][39]

转自：中国商报 本周（1月5日至9日）是2026年的第一个交易周，A股市场量价齐升，收获了实打实的2026年"开门红"。 上证指数延续去年末连阳走势，频创新高。深证成指突破14000点，创业板指、上证50、沪深300等也均创多年新高。超4700家股票周度累计上涨，为近期 表现最好的一周。 （来源：中国商报） 业内人士提醒，对于投资者而言，业绩预告仅为初步核算结果，具体数据需以正式年报为准。随着年报披露季的推进，业绩分化格局或进一步显现，资本 市场的价值发现功能将持续发挥作用。 中国上市公司协会近期发布的《2025年A股上市公司市值表现报告》显示，截至2025年年底，A股上市公司共5469家，总市值123万亿元。其中，2025年新 增上市公司116家，2025年1月1日前上市的存量公司5353家，2025年存量上市公司总市值同比增长22.5%。从总体来看，过去一年，A股上市公司市值持续 修复，资本市场稳健上涨。 | ↓日期 | 内地 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 上涨家数 | 亚盘宝数 | Nist 2 3 7 | | 2026-01-09 | 4.749 | 40 | ...

中泰证券发布研究报告称，短期内市场或延续上行趋势，遇震荡行情，投资者可把握逢低布局机遇，抓 住春节前的重要窗口期配置价值。从板块配置角度看，机器人方向在本轮拉升过程中持续获得资金净流 入，板块上涨并未出现明显资金背离，趋势尚未结束，仍是当前阶段最重点建议关注的主线方向。商业 航天板块资金流入态势同样强劲，但当前交易拥挤度已处于历史高位，板块运行或由前期主升阶段逐步 转向第二阶段的"主题扩散"行情，操作上需更加注重节奏与分化。此外，可控核聚变、体育与消费者服 务、有色金属等方向亦出现资金持续流入迹象，若1月中旬市场局部出现震荡调整，上述板块有望成为 值得重点布局的结构性方向。 ...

Group 1 - The major indices have shown significant increases, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 3.82%, the Shenzhen Component by 4.40%, and the ChiNext by 3.89% [1][16] - Most industry main lines are not showing obvious overheating signs and remain in a position where accumulation is possible [2][17] - The A-share ROE is expected to rise for the first time in five years after 14 consecutive quarters of decline, which is a prerequisite for stabilizing valuations [2][17] Group 2 - The spring market is characterized by a lack of major downside risks, with only short-term adjustments expected after sufficient market performance [3][18] - The market is likely to continue its upward trend, with a focus on technology as the main line of the bull market [5][20] - The current market structure shows a significant increase in trading volume, indicating sustained market activity [29] Group 3 - The upcoming policy catalysts, including the review of the 14th Five-Year Plan and potential improvements in Sino-US trade relations, are expected to stabilize market expectations [4][19] - The market is experiencing a "rotation + broad rise" state, with small-cap growth indices performing particularly well [7][22] - Investors are advised to focus on sectors such as AI applications, traditional consumption benefiting from policy support, and undervalued real estate [21][24] Group 4 - The short-term market may continue its upward trend, with significant inflows into sectors like robotics and commercial aerospace [8][24] - The commercial aerospace sector has shown strong capital inflows, although it is currently at a historically high trading density [8][25] - The overall market sentiment is improving, supported by macroeconomic factors and policy measures [28][29]

- The report does not contain any specific quantitative models or factors for analysis [1][2][3] - The report primarily focuses on market trends, valuation metrics, and style performance without detailing quantitative models or factor construction [1][2][3] - No formulas, construction processes, or backtesting results for quantitative models or factors are provided in the report [1][2][3]

光大证券研报认为，市场热度仍有望持续，不过需要关注1月中旬之后到春节前市场逐步降温的可能。 一方面，政策有望持续发力，经济增长有望保持在合理区间，进一步夯实资本市场繁荣发展的基础。另 一方面，政策红利释放，有望提振市场信心，进一步吸引各类资金积极流入。持续上涨之后，关注1月 中旬之后到春节前市场逐步降温的可能。行业方面，关注电子、电力设备、有色金属等。若市场风格为 成长，五维行业比较框架打分靠前的行业分别为电子、电力设备、通信、有色金属、汽车、国防军工； 若1月份市场风格为防御，五维行业比较框架打分靠前的行业分别为非银金融、电子、有色金属、电力 设备、汽车、交通运输等。两种风格假设下，得分靠前行业具有一定的相似性。主题方面，继续关注商 业航天。商业航天板块自建议关注以来已经出现持续多周大幅上涨的现象。特别是其对标的二级行业指 数及相关主题类指数，如航天装备、商业航天等短期累计涨幅较大，热度较高。我们认为尽管板块短期 存在获利了结的压力，但由于政策利好频发，叠加资金活跃，板块支撑基础稳固。若出现阶段性回调， 仍是投资者逢低介入的良机。 (本文来自第一财经) ...

Group 1 - The macroeconomic environment is improving, with December 2025 PMI and inflation data showing a seasonal rebound, indicating better demand and supply conditions [9][12][24] - Various commodity prices have shown signs of recovery from their lows since mid-December 2025, with non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, and black raw materials leading the recovery [9][12] - The micro-funding environment remains ample, with institutional funds providing incremental support, and trading funds expected to gradually recover, enhancing market liquidity [12][24] Group 2 - The thematic market is very active, with potential for further index uplift if the themes can expand into relatively low sectors [16][24] - Future thematic allocations should focus on sectors with price increase expectations supported by performance, such as non-ferrous metals, power battery supply chains, and chemicals [17][24] - Other areas of interest include themes that may see policy or unexpected technological breakthroughs, such as AI applications and tourism consumption [17][24] Group 3 - The report suggests that the current market conditions may favor a bullish sentiment, with the potential for a spring market rebound if the thematic trends continue to spread [8][16] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring the performance of various sectors and themes, particularly those that are expected to benefit from policy support and technological advancements [17][24] - The report emphasizes the need for caution regarding potential volatility in the short term, especially in high-demand technology themes like commercial aerospace and satellite internet [17][24]