宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】 各行业如何"反内卷"？ ❖ 核心观点 近期市场对供给侧改革的关注升温，参照综合求是、人民日报、工信部等官方 表态，反内卷的重点行业或包括光伏、锂电、新能源汽车、电商平台等。结合 数据可得性与行业进展，我们重点关注 5 个产业，近期其基本面均面临一定压 力，例如光伏价格偏弱但生产端持续偏强、汽车销售折扣率再度提升、钢铁水 泥价格仍然偏弱、生猪行业临近亏损等。从其反内卷措施来看，以行业自律、 行政指导、舆论监督为主，按照约束力排序，或是钢铁>生猪>汽车>水泥>光 伏，关注后续落地进展。 ❖ 一、政策如何定调？ 什么是"内卷式"竞争？参考求是中的界定，既包括企业端的低价竞争、同质 化竞争、与过度宣传营销，也包括政府端的"制造…不公平非普惠的优惠政策"、 "不顾地方产业基础和资源禀赋情况，盲目上马新兴产业、重点产业"、"保护 本地市场、扶持本地企业，设置或明或暗的市场壁垒"。 主要涉及哪些行业？综合求是、人民日报、工信部等官方表态，反内卷的重点 行业或包括光伏、锂电、新能源汽车、电商平台等。 如何"反内卷"？参照求是《深刻认识和综合整治"内卷式"竞争》的阐述， 反内卷需 ...

Group 1: Company Performance - Wanwei High-tech expects a net profit of 235 million to 265 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 81.34% to 104.48% [1] - Jin Guan Electric has won bids for projects from Southern Power Grid and Guangxi Power Grid, with a total bid amount of approximately 42.81 million yuan, accounting for 5.76% of the company's 2024 revenue [2] - Ankai Bus reported a June vehicle sales increase of 37.88% year-on-year, with a total production of 814 vehicles, a 52.23% increase [4] - Daqin Railway's June cargo transport volume increased by 5.29% year-on-year, totaling 32.42 million tons [5] - Xianggang Technology anticipates a net profit of 75 million to 85 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 410% to 478% [9] - Longxin General expects a net profit of 1.005 billion to 1.12 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 70.52% to 90.03% [10] - Le Xin Technology forecasts a net profit of 250 million to 270 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 65% to 78% [11] - I-Le Furniture expects a net profit of 80 million to 99 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 76.08% to 117.90% [13] - Shennong Group sold 219,000 pigs in June, generating sales revenue of 385 million yuan [14] - Guohuo Airlines anticipates a net profit of 1.187 billion to 1.267 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 78.13% to 90.14% [45] Group 2: Industry Developments - The electric power equipment industry is seeing increased project bids, as evidenced by Jin Guan Electric's recent contracts [2] - The automotive industry is experiencing growth, with Ankai Bus reporting significant increases in both production and sales [4] - The railway transportation sector is showing resilience with Daqin Railway's cargo transport volume growth [5] - The pharmaceutical industry is advancing with clinical trial approvals, such as Wanbang's WP107 oral solution for treating myasthenia gravis [6] - The packaging and printing industry is witnessing substantial profit growth, as indicated by Xianggang Technology's performance forecast [9] - The agricultural sector, particularly in pig farming, is maintaining steady sales figures, as shown by Shennong Group's sales data [14]

2025 年 1-6 月，公司累计销售生猪 20.42 万头，同比上升 21.52%；累计销售 收入 31,153.23 万元，同比上升 17.49%。 2025 年 6 月末，公司生猪存栏 14.44 万头，同比上升 2.34%，环比上升 2.14%。 证券代码：603717 证券简称：天域生物 公告编号：2025-050 天域生物科技股份有限公司 2025 年 6 月养殖业务主要经营数据公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 天域生物科技股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）现将 2025 年 6 月养殖业务 主要经营数据公告如下： 一、2025 年 6 月养殖行业主要经营数据 2025 年 6 月，公司销售生猪 3.18 万头，销售收入 3,748.42 万元，环比变动分 别为 28.00%、-7.19%，同比变动分别为 61.57%、-4.33%。 1 2、基于生猪市场价格大幅波动以及公司投苗节奏变化等因素影响，未来公 司生猪销售数量和销售收入存在月度波动风险，敬请广大投资者注意投资风险。 特此公告。 天域生物 ...

2025 年 6 月养殖业务主要经营数据公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 福建傲农生物科技集团股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）现将 2025 年 6 月养殖业务主要经营数据披露如下： 一、2025 年 6 月养殖业务主要经营数据 单位：万头 | 主要产品 | 销售量 | 库存量 | 销售量同比 增减（%） | 库存量同比 增减（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 生猪 | 14.24 | 54.70 | +20.46 | +20.70 | 证券代码：603363 证券简称：傲农生物 公告编号：2025-078 福建傲农生物科技集团股份有限公司 福建傲农生物科技集团股份有限公司董事会 2025 年 7 月 8 日 单位：万头 月份 当月销售量 当年累计销售量 期末库存量 2024 年 6 月 11.82 138.03 45.32 2024 年 7 月 12.55 150.58 47.54 2024 年 8 月 11.83 162.41 50.69 2024 年 9 月 ...

证券代码：605296 证券简称：神农集团 公告编号：2025-081 云南神农农业产业集团股份有限公司 2025 年 6 月养殖业务主要经营数据公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈 述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 云南神农农业产业集团股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）现将 2025 年 6 月养殖业务主要经营数据披露如下： 一、2025 年 6 月养殖业务主要经营数据 单位：万头 | 主要产品 | 销售量 | | 销售量同比增减(%) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 当月 | 累计 | 当月 | 累计 | | 生猪 | 21.90 | 153.95 | -7.52 | 40.93 | 2025 年 6 月份，公司销售生猪 21.90 万头（其中：商品猪销售 20.79 万头， 仔猪销售 0.59 万头），销售收入 3.85 亿元。其中向集团内部屠宰企业销售生猪 3.83 万头。 2025 年 6 月份，公司商品猪价格呈现下降趋势，商品猪销售均价 14.35 元/ 公斤，比 2025 年 5 月份 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [3] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of the pig farming sector amidst stricter environmental regulations and rising pork prices, suggesting a focus on investment opportunities in this area [2][12] - The report highlights the expected increase in autumn grain production, driven by favorable soil conditions and government initiatives aimed at enhancing crop yields [1][11] Summary by Sections Planting Industry Chain - The current main flood season poses risks for agricultural disasters, with regional droughts and floods expected [1] - The Ministry of Agriculture aims to achieve a grain production target of approximately 1.4 trillion jin, focusing on key crops and regions [1][11] - The commercialization of genetically modified crops is anticipated to accelerate, enhancing self-sufficiency in key varieties [1][11] - Recommended stocks include Beidahuang and Suqian Agricultural Development in the planting sector, and leading seed companies like Longping High-Tech and Denge Seed Industry [1][11] Pig Farming - The average price of external three-way cross pigs is 15.17 yuan/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 4.97% [2][12] - The number of breeding sows is projected to reach 40.42 million by May 2025, with a slight increase from previous periods [2][12] - The report suggests focusing on companies with significant cost improvements and high future output elasticity, including Dekang Agriculture, Jingji Zhino, Muyuan Foods, and Wen's Foodstuffs [2][12] Key Agricultural Product Data Tracking - Corn: The average price is 2435.68 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.37% [24] - Wheat: The average price is 2450.52 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.18% [27] - Rice: The average price is 2892 yuan/ton, remaining stable [32] - Soybeans: The average price is 3926.32 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.30% [39] - Cotton: The average price is 15130 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 1.54% [44] Feed and Vitamin Prices - The average price of pig feed is 2.69 yuan/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 0.75% [50] - Vitamin E averages 69.90 yuan/kg, with a week-on-week decrease of 5.16% [57]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The balance of bank convertible bonds may shrink by approximately 10 billion yuan this year, and by the end of 2025, it may be around 9 billion yuan. If other commercial banks can follow the example of state - owned banks' low - PB private placements, there may be a possibility of supplementary supply of bank convertible bonds [3][4]. - The replacement bottom - position varieties should have the characteristics of high rating, low volatility, and high capital capacity. It is recommended to pay attention to AAA - rated convertible bonds in non - banking finance and general public utilities for low - volatility and high - rating, and photovoltaic equipment and pig - breeding convertible bonds for large capital capacity [3][40]. - For photovoltaic equipment convertible bonds, it is recommended to screen leading individual bonds and leave room for rating downgrades. When the convertible bond price is low, gradually build a position [2][22]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. The balance of bank convertible bonds may shrink by about 10 billion yuan this year - As of June 30, 2025, there were 10 bank convertible bonds in the market, with a balance of 13.49 billion yuan, a decrease of 7 bonds and 11.1 billion yuan compared with the end of 2023. If the relevant convertible bonds are all delisted, the balance of bank convertible bonds will further shrink by 10.13 billion yuan to 8.98 billion yuan by the end of 2025 compared with the end of 2024 [4]. - The shrinkage of bank convertible bond scale may be irreversible in the short term. It is necessary to observe the progress of bank capital replenishment. Currently, the policy supports state - owned large - scale banks to replenish core tier - one capital. This year, the private placement prices of four state - owned big banks were lower than 1 - time PB, about 0.7 - time PB. There are bank convertible bonds totaling 2.9 billion yuan that have been announced but not issued, and the current PB multiples of the underlying stocks are between 0.5 - 0.7 times [4]. 2. The replacement bottom - position varieties should have three characteristics: high rating, low volatility, and high capital capacity - Before 2024, bank convertible bonds mainly served as bottom - position allocation varieties, with limited contribution to returns. Since 2024, due to the strengthening of the dividend style, bank convertible bonds have advantages in both returns and volatility. After bank convertible bonds exit the market, investors may return to the pre - 2024 investment model, and the difficulty of participation has increased. Some investors may leave the convertible bond market [13]. - The replacement bottom - position varieties should have high rating, low volatility, and high capital capacity. Configuration is the primary function, and individual bond elastic returns are a by - product [13]. 3. Low - volatility and high - rating: AAA - rated convertible bonds in non - banking finance and general public utilities - As of June 30, there were 4 non - banking finance convertible bonds, with 3 AAA - rated ones having a total scale of 1.46 billion yuan. They belong to the same large - finance industry as bank convertible bonds, with low risks of underlying stock delisting and credit default. After a sharp rise, it is not recommended to chase the high. When the convertible bond price returns to around 110 - 115 yuan, it may be a good bottom - position allocation buying point [17]. - The so - called "general public utilities" include public utilities and transportation. There are 3 AAA - rated convertible bonds in this sector, with a balance of 1 billion yuan. The advantage is a long remaining term, and the disadvantage is a relatively high current convertible bond price and insufficient defense against underlying stock decline [18][20]. 4. Large capital capacity: Photovoltaic equipment and pig - breeding convertible bonds - Photovoltaic equipment and pig - breeding are both strong - cycle industries. The current balance of photovoltaic equipment convertible bonds is 6.08 billion yuan, and the balance of pig - breeding convertible bonds is 2.72 billion yuan. The photovoltaic equipment sector's net profit turned negative in 2024, and the pig - breeding sector may have passed the most difficult period, but the pig price has been falling since August 2024 [21]. - The advantages of photovoltaic equipment convertible bonds are low prices and high capital accommodation. It is recommended to screen leading individual bonds and leave room for rating downgrades. The advantage of pig - breeding convertible bonds is mainly large capital capacity, and it is necessary to pay attention to the marginal changes in the pig price [22].

Summary of Industry and Company Insights from Conference Call Industry Overview - **Agricultural Industry Performance**: The agricultural industry in the first half of 2025 is relatively stable, with grain prices at a low point and pig prices showing a year-on-year recovery, although they are declining on a quarter-on-quarter basis. Poultry prices are affected by weak demand in the catering sector and abundant supply, leading to a continued downturn in the poultry farming sector [2][3]. Key Points on Specific Sectors 1. Pig Farming Industry - **Price and Profitability**: The average pig price is approximately 14.8 yuan per kilogram, down 4.2% year-on-year. However, due to a greater decline in farming costs compared to pig prices, industry profitability has significantly improved, with average profit per head around 70 yuan, compared to a loss of 25 yuan in the same period last year [3][4]. - **Company Performance**: Major companies like Muyuan Foods are expected to report over 10.5 billion yuan in profits for the first half of the year, with a 90% increase in Q2 profits. Other companies like Shennong Group and Wens Foodstuffs are also showing strong profitability despite challenges in certain segments [4]. 2. Poultry Farming Industry - **Current Situation**: The white feather broiler market remains at a low point, with upstream companies benefiting from downstream capacity expansion. However, the price drop in upstream is greater than in downstream. The average selling price of layer chicks has increased by 40% year-on-year to about 4.3 yuan per chick due to supply constraints [5]. - **Financial Performance**: Companies like Shengnong Development expect a 22% year-on-year growth in Q2 performance, while Wens and Lihua are facing losses in the yellow feather chicken segment, averaging losses of 0.2 to 0.3 yuan per bird [5]. 3. Pet Food Market - **Market Dynamics**: The domestic pet food market remains robust, with online GMV growth of 17% in the first five months of 2025, compared to 14% last year. However, companies focused on export OEM are facing declines due to US-China trade tensions, while strong domestic brands are expected to maintain high growth rates [6][9]. - **Company Performance**: Companies like Guibao and Zhongchong are projected to see significant growth, with expected Q2 growth rates of around 40% and 31%, respectively. In contrast, companies heavily reliant on export OEM may see stagnant or slightly declining performance [10]. 4. Feed and Animal Health Sub-Industries - **Sales Growth**: The feed and animal health sectors are benefiting from a recovery in livestock numbers and stable profitability. For instance, Bangji Technology reported over 200% year-on-year growth in feed sales, while Haida Group expects a growth rate of 25% to 30% [7]. - **Vaccine Demand**: There has been a recovery in vaccine demand, with prices for certain products like Tylosin and Tiamulin increasing by 30% and 10%, respectively. Companies like Keqian Bio are expected to see a 20% to 25% growth in Q2 performance [8]. Recommendations for Investment - **Investment Focus**: Recommendations include focusing on post-cycle breeding varieties, feed, and animal health sectors. Key companies to watch include Bangji Technology, Haida Group, and leading vaccine producers like Keqian Bio and Huisheng Bio. Attention should also be given to low-valuation leading breeding companies with strong performance [11]. - **Market Outlook**: If the pig farming sector can stabilize and avoid overproduction, there is significant potential for valuation increases in the industry, particularly for companies like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs [11].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [4][69] Core Insights - The report highlights significant price increases in the pig farming sector, with the national average pig price reaching 15.37 yuan/kg as of July 4, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.71 yuan/kg [2][10] - The report indicates a decrease in slaughter volume due to high temperatures affecting pork consumption, with daily average slaughter volume dropping to 138,000 heads, a week-on-week decrease of 3.83% [2][16] - The report notes a rebound in average pig weight for slaughter, with the average weight recorded at 128.64 kg, a week-on-week increase of 0.50 kg [2][22] - The poultry sector is experiencing a decline in chicken chick prices, with the price of white feather chicken chicks dropping to 1.36 yuan/chick, a week-on-week decrease of 0.34 yuan/chick [3][35] - The report discusses the impact of ongoing avian influenza outbreaks on the poultry industry, particularly affecting the supply of quality chicks [3][39] - The seed industry is seeing increased regulatory scrutiny, which is expected to enhance market order and accelerate the commercialization of genetically modified organisms [3][48] - The report mentions fluctuations in soybean meal prices, with the spot price at 2,928 yuan/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 22 yuan/ton [3][49] - The agricultural sector overall has shown a 2.55% increase in the past week, outperforming major indices [3][54] Summary by Sections Pig Farming - Supply reduction has led to significant price increases, with the national average pig price at 15.37 yuan/kg [2][10] - Slaughter volume has decreased due to high temperatures, with daily average slaughter volume at 138,000 heads [2][16] - Average pig weight for slaughter has rebounded to 128.64 kg [2][22] - The report suggests monitoring companies such as Muyuan Foods, Dekang Agriculture, and Wens Foodstuff Group for potential investment opportunities [2][33] Poultry Sector - White feather chicken chick prices have reached a new low, with prices at 1.36 yuan/chick [3][35] - The ongoing avian influenza outbreaks are affecting the supply chain, particularly in the U.S. and New Zealand [3][39] - The report recommends focusing on companies like Xiamen Xiangyu and Shennong Group for investment [3][39] Seed Industry & Agricultural Products - Regulatory measures are being strengthened in the seed industry, which is expected to improve market conditions [3][48] - Soybean meal prices are fluctuating, with current prices at 2,928 yuan/ton [3][49] - The report suggests monitoring soybean meal ETFs for investment opportunities [3][49]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [2][45]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in pig prices, reaching a new high since the Spring Festival, with a current average price of 15.37 CNY/kg, up 4.8% week-on-week [3][4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on quality pig farming companies and the opportunities in the livestock support and pet food sectors, as the pet food industry remains vibrant with leading brands performing well [3][4]. - The report anticipates a notable improvement in overall profitability in the agricultural sector for the first half of 2025, particularly in pig farming, feed, pet food, and animal health sectors [3][4]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Shenwan Agricultural, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery Index rose by 2.5%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index which increased by 1.5% [3][4]. - The top five gainers in individual stocks include Muyuan Foods (+4.9%), Shennong Group (+4.0%), and Xiaoming Co. (+4.8%) [3][4]. Pig Farming - Pig prices have shown a strong upward trend, with the average price reaching 15.37 CNY/kg, marking a significant increase from previous months [3][4]. - The report discusses the reasons behind the recent price surge, including a reduction in supply pressure and increased second fattening activities [3][4]. Poultry Farming - The report notes a decline in broiler chick prices, with the average price dropping to 1.14 CNY/chick, down 7.3% week-on-week [3][4]. - Broiler prices have also decreased, with the average price for live chickens at 3.37 CNY/kg, reflecting a weak market [3][4]. Animal Health - The report highlights a recovery in demand for vaccines, with a 15.8% year-on-year increase in vaccine issuance from January to May 2025 [3][4]. - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring new vaccine varieties and the potential growth in the pet health sector [3][4]. Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Muyuan Foods, Wen's Food Group, and Shennong Group for potential investment opportunities [3][4].