Investment Rating - The report maintains an "OUTPERFORM" rating for Jinhui Liquor with a target price of Rmb 22.00, indicating an expected upside from the current price of Rmb 18.92 [2][5]. Core Insights - The baijiu industry is undergoing a deep adjustment phase characterized by policy changes, consumption structure transformation, and intensified competition. The production in Q1 2025 saw a year-on-year decline of 7.1%, with a shift in consumer focus towards lower price bands [3][11]. - Jinhui Liquor has set a pragmatic growth target for FY25, aiming for total revenue of Rmb 3.28 billion (+8.6% year-on-year) and net profit of Rmb 410 million (+5.2% year-on-year), aligning with industry trends [3][14]. - The company's product structure is evolving, with a notable increase in the high-end segment (over Rmb 300) from less than 15% in FY22 to 18.8% in FY24, while the low-end segment is contracting significantly [4][12]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for Jinhui Liquor are Rmb 3.3 billion in 2025, Rmb 3.7 billion in 2026, and Rmb 4.3 billion in 2027, with corresponding net profits of Rmb 400 million, Rmb 500 million, and Rmb 500 million [5][14]. - The company’s gross profit margin is expected to remain stable around 60%, with a gradual increase in return on equity (ROE) from 11.7% in 2025 to 13.5% in 2027 [10][14]. - The dividend payout ratio for FY24 is projected at 64.0%, with a dividend yield of 2.6%, marking a record high since the company’s listing [5][14]. Market Dynamics - The provincial market for Jinhui Liquor showed a modest growth of 1.1% year-on-year in Q1 2025, significantly down from 16.1% in FY24, while the extra-provincial market grew by 9.5% [4][13]. - The company is focusing on refining its channel operations within the provincial market and expanding its presence in Gansu, Qinghai, and Xinjiang as core bases for growth [4][13].

Core Viewpoint - The price of Feitian Moutai is declining, prompting the company to establish joint venture companies with provincial distributors to stabilize market prices and develop regional cultural products [1][3][7]. Group 1: Price Trends - As of July 24, 2023, the price of 53-degree 500ml Feitian Moutai has dropped to 1870 yuan per bottle for loose packaging and 1920 yuan for boxed packaging, representing a decline of approximately 15.77% and 17.06% respectively compared to the beginning of the year [8][9]. - The average price of Feitian Moutai peaked in February 2023, with loose packaging averaging 2218.85 yuan per bottle, and has shown a downward trend since then [8]. - Compared to the same period last year, the prices have decreased by 21.92% for loose packaging and 26.15% for boxed packaging [9]. Group 2: Joint Venture Company Strategy - Moutai is moving forward with plans to establish joint venture companies led by provincial distributors, with registered capital set between 50 million to 100 million yuan [3][4]. - The joint venture companies will focus on two main functions: stabilizing the price of Feitian Moutai and developing culturally themed Moutai products tailored to regional markets [3][4]. - The initiative is seen as a response to the challenges posed by the current market environment, including supply-demand imbalances and price pressures [6][7]. Group 3: Historical Context - Moutai's strategy of collaborating with distributors is built on past experiences, including the 2014 expansion of distributor recruitment and the 2016 establishment of provincial joint venture companies [4][5]. - The previous attempts at channel management were primarily policy-driven, while the current strategy is influenced by economic downturns and reduced consumer demand [6]. Group 4: Cultural Product Development - The joint venture companies will also focus on developing regional cultural products, which are seen as a potential growth area amid a competitive market [12][13]. - The cultural product market, particularly zodiac-themed products, has shown significant growth, with the market size exceeding 20 billion yuan and an annual growth rate of over 30% [12]. - However, challenges such as market saturation and consumer acceptance remain, necessitating innovative approaches in product development [12][13].

Core Points - The company announced a cash dividend distribution plan for 2024, approved by the shareholders' meeting [1] - A cash dividend of RMB 6.00 will be distributed for every 10 shares, based on a total share count of 324,928,980 shares [1] - The total amount for the dividend distribution is RMB 194,957,388.00, with no stock dividends or capital reserve transfers [1] - The record date for the dividend is set for July 30, 2025, and the ex-dividend date is July 31, 2025 [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the ongoing crackdown on counterfeit "special supply liquor" by law enforcement, resulting in the seizure of 260,000 bottles and an involved amount of 3.7 billion yuan [1] - The police have reported a total of 64,000 criminal cases related to food safety, with 540 cases specifically concerning counterfeit "special supply liquor" [1] - The operation aims to protect consumers and legitimate businesses by disrupting the illegal supply chain in the production, transportation, and sales of counterfeit liquor [1] Group 2 - According to Dongwu Securities, active funds have reduced their holdings in the liquor sector, with significant decreases in high-end liquor stocks such as Kweichow Moutai (14.9%), Wuliangye (30.1%), and Luzhou Laojiao (34.7%) [2] - The report indicates a shift in market preference towards sectors with higher growth potential, such as innovative pharmaceuticals and technology, leading to a capital outflow from the liquor sector [2] - Despite the overall negative sentiment towards the liquor sector, some long-term investors believe that the pessimistic expectations have been over-reflected in stock prices, suggesting potential value recovery for the liquor industry [2] Group 3 - Shanxi Fenjiu launched the "Qinghua Fenjiu 30 Revival Edition," emphasizing cultural innovation and internationalization in the liquor industry [3] - The event serves as a model for other liquor companies to enhance their cultural significance and adapt to modern consumer demands, thereby enriching the cultural ecosystem of the liquor industry [3] - The internationalization efforts of Fenjiu, through cultural exchanges and product upgrades, provide valuable insights for other liquor companies facing challenges in global markets [3]

Core Insights - Sichuan Science and Technology Innovation Investment Group is focusing on deepening cooperation with Yibin, particularly in four major industrial clusters: high-quality liquor, power batteries, crystalline silicon photovoltaics, and digital economy [1] Investment and Collaboration - The group has over 10 existing investment projects in Yibin, with a total investment exceeding 2 billion yuan [1] - Future collaborations will involve precise industrial layout and investment through fund cooperation to support Yibin's industrial upgrading and development [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the relationship between intellectual property protection and innovation in the digital economy, highlighting the need for timely discussions on emerging issues to inform future legal regulations [1][3]. Group 1: Intellectual Property Issues - E-commerce platforms have a responsibility to actively review and stop infringement, particularly regarding the sale of counterfeit products [3]. - Selling brand packaging as standalone products is deemed illegal, as it can facilitate counterfeit activities [3]. - Major brands like Apple and Moutai have seen their packaging materials sold on various e-commerce platforms, prompting legal warnings to these platforms [3]. Group 2: Litigation Trends Among Tech Companies - The report indicates that major tech companies have a low success rate in civil litigation, with win rates ranging from 20% to 41% [4]. - Huawei has the highest win rate at 40.99%, followed by Alibaba at 36.59%, with ByteDance and Tencent at 33.16% and 32.65%, respectively [4]. - Weibo shows strong litigation risk management with a low loss rate of 3.84% [4]. Group 3: Settlement and Resolution Patterns - A high rate of settlement and withdrawal is observed, with 54.54% of cases resulting in "other and withdrawal" [5]. - Weibo has a 75.64% settlement rate in its cases, while OPPO follows closely at 75.04% [5]. - The increase in settlement rates and decrease in case numbers reflect improvements in the judicial environment and the legal strategies of companies in the digital age [5].

食品饮料行业 超配（维持） 白酒估值回暖，关注中报业绩 事件： 近日，白酒估值阶段性回暖，市场情绪有所修复。 点评： 本报告的风险等级为中风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 跟 踪 点 评 行 业 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 白酒行业动态跟踪点评 | | | ◼ 预计白酒Q2业绩承压。5月18日，新华社发布了中共中央、国务院印发的修订后的《党政机关厉行节约 反对浪费条例》。在公务接待中，新增"工作餐不得提供高档菜肴，不得提供香烟，不上酒。"该条例 发布后，对白酒政务消费场景产生扰动。同时，短期内市场悲观情绪放大，对白酒商务等消费场景产 生连带效应，一定程度上影响白酒整体动销。目前，水井坊、酒鬼酒发布2025年中期业绩预告，业绩 同比均出现不同程度下滑，主要系二季度政商务宴请等消费场景持续承压，白酒修复节奏放缓。从目 前实际需求来看，预计二季度白酒业绩面临压力测试。 ◼ 纠偏后，白酒企稳。6月17日，人民网发布评论称"禁止违规吃喝，不是吃喝都违规"；6月19日，新华 社发文称"整治违规吃喝，不是一阵风不能一刀切"，对 ...

Core Viewpoint - Guizhou Moutai is planning to establish joint venture companies in various provinces to stabilize prices and develop regional cultural Moutai products, aiming to create a balance between price control and market expansion [1][2]. Group 1: Joint Venture Company Structure - The joint venture companies will be led by provincial distributors' associations, with registered capital ranging from 50 million to 100 million yuan, depending on the province [1]. - Each joint venture will focus on developing culturally themed products specific to the province, which is expected to enhance channel profit margins and increase non-standard liquor revenue [1][2]. - If all distributors participate, Moutai could potentially raise over 5 billion yuan in capital from the joint ventures, significantly aiding its annual operational goals [3]. Group 2: Price Stabilization Strategy - The establishment of joint ventures is seen as a dual-track approach to maintain price stability while expanding the market. This involves creating a community of interests among distributors and using the joint ventures as a buffer for market price adjustments [2][8]. - The legal structure of the joint ventures allows Moutai to adjust market prices indirectly, thus avoiding legal risks associated with direct price fixing [2][9]. Group 3: Market Context and Challenges - The price of Moutai has experienced significant fluctuations, with the wholesale price of the 53-degree Flying Moutai dropping below 2000 yuan per bottle in June, marking a historic low [4]. - The success of the new cultural Moutai products in the market remains uncertain, especially given the current consumer demand challenges. The outturn price is expected to be above 2000 yuan, which may face difficulties in gaining market acceptance [5][7]. - Previous attempts to establish joint ventures faced challenges due to internal conflicts among shareholders, leading to the termination of such projects in 2019 [5][9]. Group 4: Industry Trends - The trend of creating joint ventures or distributor alliances is becoming more common among leading liquor companies, aiming to stabilize channel operations and enhance cooperation [8]. - Different companies are adopting varied strategies, with Moutai focusing on leveraging its brand power to create operational flexibility for distributors, while others like Wuliangye emphasize fair profit distribution [8][9].

Core Viewpoint - The collaboration between Jiugui Liquor and retail giant Pang Donglai has generated significant industry attention, but Jiugui Liquor's underlying performance remains concerning, with a sharp decline in revenue and profit forecasts for 2025 [1][2][6]. Financial Performance - Jiugui Liquor's revenue for 2023 and 2024 is projected to be 2.83 billion yuan and 1.42 billion yuan, representing year-on-year declines of 30.14% and 49.70% respectively [2]. - The net profit for the same years is expected to be 548 million yuan and 12.49 million yuan, showing declines of 47.77% and 97.72% [2]. - For the first half of 2025, revenue is anticipated to be around 560 million yuan, a decrease of approximately 43%, with net profit expected to be between 8 million and 12 million yuan, a staggering drop of 90.08% to 93.39% [2]. Operational Challenges - The company's gross margin has decreased from 79.97% in 2021 to 70.71% in the first quarter of 2025 [3]. - Inventory issues are becoming more pronounced, with inventory reaching 1.75 billion yuan by the end of 2024, accounting for 34.48% of total assets, and inventory turnover days increasing from 873 days in 2023 to 1576 days in the first quarter of 2025 [3]. - The number of distributors decreased by 438 in 2024, and the concentration of sales among the top five customers fell to 26.01%, down from 34.84% in 2023 and 37.33% in 2022 [3]. Market Position - Jiugui Liquor's market share in its home market of Hunan, valued at approximately 28 billion yuan, has fallen below 3%, facing strong competition from national giants like Moutai and Wuliangye [5]. - The company is caught in a cycle of declining performance, distributor loss, inventory buildup, and further performance deterioration [5]. Strategic Collaboration - The partnership with Pang Donglai is seen as a potential lifeline for Jiugui Liquor, with expectations for improved brand visibility and market penetration [6][10]. - However, there are concerns regarding the alignment of target consumer demographics, as Pang Donglai caters to a mass retail market while Jiugui Liquor is positioned as a high-end brand [8][10]. - The collaboration is viewed as an innovative approach, combining strong brand equity from both parties, which could enhance market reach and sales [11][13]. Future Outlook - The collaboration is anticipated to provide short-term confidence in the capital market, but the long-term success will depend on overcoming significant operational challenges and fierce market competition [13].

Group 1 - The Shanghai Composite Index has regained the 3600-point level, with a notable rebound in stocks, particularly in the ChiNext market outperforming A-shares amid bank corrections [1] - The market is shifting from large-cap indices to sector indices, with significant rebounds in healthcare, rare metals, and securities, while real estate, liquor, and coal sectors are also recovering [3] - The current market environment is characterized by a potential for substantial gains, with many stocks rising over 30% as the index increases by 10% [3] Group 2 - The market is experiencing upward volatility, with the absence of a significant drop indicating further potential for growth [5] - There is an increasing market volume, suggesting that low-priced stocks are beginning to rally, which could drive the index higher [5] - The upcoming market conditions are expected to be favorable, with a bullish sentiment prevailing despite some skepticism among investors [7]