Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The current profit of float glass enterprises is poor. With the expected output of glass from previously ignited production lines and the possibility of some production lines storing water, the supply may decline slightly. The terminal demand for float glass remains weak, the orders of downstream deep - processing enterprises are weak, and the inventory of float glass enterprises has increased slightly. It is expected that the glass price will fluctuate weakly in the near future, with the upper pressure of the 09 contract at the 1050 level. Short - term short - selling on rallies is recommended, with attention to stop - loss [2][22] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Market Review - The spot price of the domestic float glass market has declined. In the Shahe area, the initial weekly shipment was average, with small - plate prices mostly lowered. Subsequently, the mid - and downstream made appropriate purchases, and the overall shipment improved slightly, with small - plate prices rising and some large - plate market prices also increasing slightly. The Beijing - Tianjin - Tangshan market was lackluster, with the transaction center moving downward and different shipment situations among manufacturers. In the East China market, the negotiation center declined, demand follow - up was weak, the willingness of mid - and downstream to replenish inventory was low, and local enterprise prices continued to fall due to the inflow of low - priced external goods [8] Chapter 2: Price Influence Factor Analysis 2.1 Supply - demand Analysis - **Supply - side Analysis**: As of June 19, the national float glass output was 1.0935 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.21% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.88%. The average operating rate of the float glass industry was 75.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.17 percentage points; the average capacity utilization rate was 77.85%, a month - on - month increase of 0.26 percentage points. With the expected output of glass from previously ignited production lines and the possibility of some production lines storing water, the supply may decline slightly. As of June 19, the weekly average profit of float glass using natural gas as fuel was - 195.11 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 12.28 yuan/ton; that using coal - made gas was 83.70 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 2.98 yuan/ton; and that using petroleum coke was - 108.47 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 20.00 yuan/ton [12] - **Demand - side Analysis**: As of June 16, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 9.83 days, a month - on - month decrease of 5.0% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.48%. Since June, deep - processing orders in many places have decreased. Enterprises maintaining orders have seen a significant compression of profit feedback due to low - price competition, and the phenomenon of workers taking turns off has increased in some areas, with the tempering start - up rate declining. The terminal demand for float glass remains weak. From January to May 2025, the cumulative real estate completion area was 183.85 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 17.3%. In May 2025, the inventory warning index of Chinese automobile dealers was 52.7%, a year - on - year decrease of 5.5 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 7.1 percentage points. The inventory warning index was above the boom - bust line, and the prosperity of the automobile circulation industry improved. In May, the automobile production was 2.649 million vehicles, and the sales volume was 2.686 million vehicles [14] - **Inventory Analysis**: As of June 19, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 69.887 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month increase of 202,000 heavy boxes, a month - on - month increase of 0.29%, and a year - on - year increase of 16.82%. The inventory days were 30.8 days, the same as the previous period. In the North China region, the initial weekly shipment was average and then improved slightly. Mid - and downstream enterprises made appropriate purchases according to their own situations, with different situations among enterprises. The average production - sales ratio decreased compared with the previous week, and the inventory increased slightly. In the East China region, the overall shipment of the float glass market improved slightly compared with the previous week, and the overall inventory decreased slightly [17] 2.2 Position Analysis - As of June 20, the long positions of the top 20 members in glass futures were 896,394, an increase of 12,633; the short positions were 1,144,221, an increase of 47,890. The net positions of the top 20 members were bearish [19] Chapter 3: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The current profit of float glass enterprises is poor. With the expected output of glass from previously ignited production lines and the possibility of some production lines storing water, the supply may decline slightly. The terminal demand for float glass remains weak, the orders of downstream deep - processing enterprises are weak, and the inventory of float glass enterprises has increased slightly. It is expected that the glass price will fluctuate weakly in the near future, with the upper pressure of the 09 contract at the 1050 level. Short - term short - selling on rallies is recommended, with attention to stop - loss [22]

Core Viewpoint - Luzhou Rongcheng Glass faced challenges after acquiring Gaohong Glass assets, including uncompleted asset transfers and legal issues with former controllers, leading to financing difficulties despite having new production line equipment ready [2] Group 1: Financing Challenges - Luzhou Rongcheng Glass encountered a "non-standard" financing scenario due to historical issues, resulting in a funding "disruption" for raw materials [2] - The bank focused on the substantive operational risks rather than surface-level concerns, implementing measures to assess the company's true risk and operational capability [2] Group 2: Risk Assessment Measures - Legal clarification was conducted to delineate new and old debt risks, confirming no association between Luzhou Rongcheng Glass and Gaohong Glass's original debts, effectively "clearing" the company’s name [2] - On-site verification was performed to assess the company's operational vitality, leading to the confirmation of eight years of stable operations and steady revenue growth [2] - The management team's strength was evaluated, highlighting over ten years of industry experience and professional skills in cost control and development planning, which are crucial for the company's value creation and debt repayment capacity [2] Group 3: Financial Support - Through thorough due diligence and risk assessment, Luzhou Bank issued a 3 million yuan credit loan to Luzhou Rongcheng Glass within three days, alleviating the company's short-term financial pressure and supporting the new production line's launch, which is expected to increase annual production by 20 million yuan [3] - A representative from Luzhou Bank emphasized the importance of assessing the "living" operations, "true" teams, and "real" futures of enterprises, committing to support potential and trustworthy companies [3]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【玻璃纯碱（ 】 信心稍有回暖，基本面延续承压 国贸期货 黑色金属研究中心 2025-06-23 黄志鸿 从业资格证号：F3051824 投资咨询证号：Z0015761 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 玻璃:供需双弱 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 偏空 | 产量下降。本周全国浮法玻璃日产量为15.54万吨，比12日-0.16%。行业开工率为75.34%，比12日-0.08个百分点；行业产能利用率为77.7%， | | | | 比12日+0.22个百分点。本周供应面增减并存，增量方面，1条前期点火产线开始出玻璃，减量方面，一条产线放水叠加一条产线热修，周度供 | | | | 应量环比小幅上涨。下周2条前期点火产线或将开始出玻璃，另有1条产线存在放水预期，预计下周周度产量环比小幅减少。 | | 需求 | 偏空 | 需求预期走弱，淡季来临，需求边际下滑。稳增长压力较大，中期地产颓势难挽，竣工 ...

2025/6/13 2025/6/19 2025/6/20 周度变化 日度变化 2025/6/13 2025/6/19 2025/6/20 周度变化 日度变化 沙河重碱 1200.0 1210.0 1210.0 10.0 0.0 SA05合 约 1204.0 1209.0 1207.0 3.0 -2.0 华中重碱 1165.0 1175.0 1170.0 5.0 -5.0 S A 0 1合约 1153.0 1165.0 1162.0 9.0 -3.0 华南重碱 1510.0 1500.0 1500.0 -10.0 0.0 S A 0 9合约 1156.0 1176.0 1173.0 17.0 -3.0 青 海 重 碱 1030.0 960.0 960.0 -70.0 0.0 S A 0 9沙河基 差 44.0 34.0 37.0 -7.0 3.0 华北轻碱 1180.0 1180.0 1180.0 0.0 0.0 S A月差0 9 - 0 1 3.0 11.0 11.0 8.0 0.0 华中轻碱 1180.0 1180.0 1180.0 0.0 0.0 华北氨碱利润 -126.3 -111.3 -116.3 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the construction materials sector [4] Core Viewpoints - The construction materials sector is experiencing a demand season that is not significantly weak, supported by delayed renovations in the second-hand housing market [2] - The glass market is facing a contradiction between supply and demand, with a continuous decline in demand expected post-2025, although there has been marginal improvement since March [2] - The cement industry is in a phase of seeking a bottom, with increased off-peak production efforts by companies, leading to fluctuating prices around unprofitable levels [2] - The fiberglass market has shown signs of bottoming out, with price wars ending and prices beginning to recover, particularly in the wind power sector [2] - Carbon fiber demand is slowly recovering, with growth expected in downstream sectors such as wind power and hydrogen bottles [2] Summary by Sections Cement Industry Tracking - As of June 20, 2025, the national cement price index is 362.67 yuan/ton, down 0.21% from the previous week, with a total cement output of 2.781 million tons, a decrease of 2.88% [3][16] - The cement market is currently in a phase of "weak reality" and "weak expectations," with potential for weak recovery by the end of Q3 if policies are strengthened or the rainy season ends [16] Glass Industry Tracking - The average price of float glass is 1209.75 yuan/ton, down 1.64% from the previous week, with inventory levels increasing [32] - The market is expected to experience short-term price fluctuations downward, with ongoing challenges in meeting demand during the seasonal downturn [32] Fiberglass Industry Tracking - The price of non-alkali roving has shown a stable decline, with demand for high-end products like wind power yarn performing relatively well [6] - The overall price of fiberglass is expected to maintain a weak and stable trend in the short term [6] Carbon Fiber Industry Tracking - The carbon fiber market price remains stable, with a weekly production of 1781 tons and an operating rate of 60.13% [7] - The industry continues to face losses, with a production cost of 106,500 yuan/ton and a negative gross margin [7] Key Stocks - Recommended stocks include Beixin Building Materials (Buy), Weixing New Materials (Overweight), and China Jushi (Buy) with respective EPS forecasts for 2024A to 2027E [8]

黑色建材周报 | 2025-06-22 需求方面，全国各地区出货整体一般，市场以刚需采购为主，投机情绪较弱。 库存方面，本周全国浮法玻璃样本企业总库存6988.7万重箱，环比增加0.29%，下游拿货谨慎，价格承压。 整体来看，玻璃在部分产线亏损的情况下，供应环比仍有小幅上升，且下游刚需依旧疲软，房地产数据仍处于低 位。玻璃的高库存对价格形成较强的压制，在未减产的情况下仍需要长期亏损，以此达到出清产能的目的，持续 关注玻璃厂冷修计划和玻璃利润情况。 纯碱方面，本周纯碱主力合约2509震荡偏强，收盘价为1173元/吨，环比上涨17元/吨，涨幅1.47%。现货方面，下 游情绪较为谨慎，采购积极性不佳。 供应方面，据隆众资讯最新数据，本周纯碱产能利用率86.57%，环比增加1.68%，产量75.47万吨，环比增加1.97%， 部分企业有复产预期。 市场情绪好转，玻碱区间震荡 市场分析 玻璃方面，本周玻璃主力合约2509震荡上涨，收盘价为1007元/吨，环比上涨31元/吨，涨幅3.18%。现货方面，据 隆众资讯最新数据，国内浮法玻璃市场周均价1190元/吨，环比下降12.65元/吨，成交重心回落。 供应方面，本周浮法玻 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Glass: The medium - term outlook is a sideways market. Short - term spot prices are weak, with prices falling across regions. In the medium term, factors such as the June real - estate debt repayment peak and Hubei's warehouse receipt pricing will suppress the market. The 09 contract, a peak - season contract, is priced at a large loss, indicating high future volatility. Bulls focus on policy support, low spot prices, long - term factory losses, and peak - season expectations. Bears believe the real - estate market won't improve substantially, and inventory pressure is high [6][7]. -纯碱: The short - term outlook is weak. The glass market's pressure restricts the price increase of soda ash. High production and inventory are the core issues, and there is no long - term shortage expectation. Potential supporting factors like low light - heavy soda ash price difference, good exports, and high inventory concentration need the improvement of the glass market to take effect [8][9]. Summary by Directory Glass: Supply - side Situation - Cold - repaired production lines in 2025 have a total daily melting capacity of 8010 tons/day [12]. - Ignited production lines in 2025 have a total daily melting capacity of 9210 tons/day [13]. - Potential new ignition production lines have a total daily melting capacity of 13000 tons/day [15]. - Potential old - line复产 production lines have a total daily melting capacity of 7830 tons, mainly concentrated in South and Southwest China [16]. - Potential cold - repaired production lines have a total daily melting capacity of 7850 tons/day [18]. - The glass industry's production reduction space in the first half of the year is limited, with the current in - production capacity at around 155,000 tons/day [19][20]. Glass: Price and Profit - Recent transactions are slightly down but stable compared to last week. Some manufacturers' prices have dropped by 20 - 40 yuan/ton. Prices in different regions are: 1120 - 1180 yuan/ton in Shahe, 1000 - 1100 yuan/ton in Hubei, and 1220 - 1360 yuan/ton in East China [26][30]. - Futures prices have rebounded, the basis is weak, and the calendar spread is stable. The calendar spread's rebound space is limited due to near - month warehouse receipt factors [32][35]. - Profits vary by fuel: - 108 yuan/ton for petroleum coke, - 195 - 83 yuan/ton for natural gas and coal [36][40]. Glass: Inventory and Downstream开工 - Due to the rainy season, market transactions are weak, and inventory has slightly increased in most regions. Regional price differences have shrunk as prices in East China have declined [43][49]. Photovoltaic Glass: Price, Profit, Capacity, and Inventory - Prices are falling, recent orders are slightly down, shipments are average, and inventory is increasing. The prices of 2.0mm and 3.2mm coated panels have decreased by 4.08% and 2.47% respectively [56][58]. - As the market weakens, it may enter a production - reduction cycle again. The actual capacity as of mid - June is about 99,000 tons/day, and the sample inventory days are about 29.87 days, a 0.50% increase [59][64]. Soda Ash: Supply and Maintenance - Soda ash maintenance has reached its peak, and there may be less maintenance in June. The current capacity utilization rate is 86.5%, and the weekly output of heavy soda ash is 415,000 tons. The inventory is about 1.7267 million tons, with 812,600 tons of light soda ash and 914,000 tons of heavy soda ash [69][72][73]. Soda Ash: Price and Profit - This week's prices have changed little, with some northwest manufacturers reducing prices. The nominal prices in Shahe and Hubei are around 1200 - 1300 yuan/ton. High production and inventory put pressure on near - month contracts. The basis is slightly strong, and the calendar spread is under pressure. The profit in East China (excluding Shandong) for the joint - alkali method is 99.5 yuan/ton, and in North China for the ammonia - alkali method is 25 yuan/ton [84][86][91].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the building materials industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The real estate market is showing marginal improvement, with a continued loose policy from both central and local governments. In May, the overall real estate market remained stable, with some indicators showing marginal improvement. Housing prices are experiencing a complex trend of "month-on-month decline, year-on-year decline narrowing." Data from the National Bureau of Statistics indicates that the sales prices of commercial and second-hand residential properties in various cities are declining month-on-month but showing a narrowing year-on-year decline. First-tier cities have relatively stable housing prices, with the lowest year-on-year decline in both commercial and second-hand residential prices. The inventory of real estate is slowly decreasing, particularly in first-tier and core second-tier cities, indicating a potential balance in supply and demand in the real estate market [3][4][6]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The building materials index fell by 1.42% in the week from June 16 to June 20, 2025, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.97 percentage points. Over the past three months, the CSI 300 index has decreased by 2.18%, while the building materials index has dropped by 6.84%, underperforming by 4.66 percentage points. In the past year, the CSI 300 index has risen by 10.04%, while the building materials index has only increased by 1.99%, underperforming by 8.05 percentage points [4][13][19]. Cement Sector - As of June 20, 2025, the average price of P.O42.5 bulk cement nationwide was 296.97 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 2.55%. The price trends varied by region, with Northeast China down by 3.01%, North China down by 0.69%, East China down by 3.93%, South China down by 4.12%, Central China down by 0.33%, Southwest China down by 5.66%, and Northwest China remaining unchanged [6][24][25]. Glass Sector - As of June 20, 2025, the spot price of float glass was 1199.00 yuan/ton, down by 19.00 yuan/ton or 1.56% month-on-month. The average price of photovoltaic glass was 125.00 yuan/weight box, down by 2.30 yuan/weight box or 1.81% month-on-month [6][72][79]. Fiberglass Sector - The price of non-alkali 2400tex direct yarn is reported at 3400-4100 yuan/ton, with various other fiberglass products showing stable pricing trends. The market for non-alkali fiberglass is generally stable, with average prices holding steady across different product categories [6][15][17]. Consumer Building Materials - As of June 20, 2025, the price of crude oil was 78.40 USD/barrel, showing a week-on-week increase of 6.19%. The price of asphalt remained stable at 4290 yuan/ton, while acrylic acid was priced at 6750 yuan/ton, with a year-to-date decrease of 13.46% [6][19].

Core Viewpoint - Shandong Huapeng plans to raise 90 million yuan through entrusted loans to repay debts and supplement working capital, with a financing term of one year and an interest rate not exceeding 6% [2] Group 1: Financing and Corporate Actions - The company will pledge 100% equity of Shandong Huapeng Shidao Glass Products Co., Ltd. and related assets to secure the financing [2] - The board of directors has approved the financing plan without requiring shareholder meeting approval [2] - The company has also applied for a comprehensive credit line of up to 700 million yuan from financial institutions, with a validity until the 2025 annual shareholder meeting [2] Group 2: Company Overview - ST Huapeng was established on December 29, 2001, with a registered capital of 319.948 million yuan, and is primarily engaged in the research, production, and sales of glassware products [2] - The current chairman is Liu Dongguang, and the company employs 603 people [2] Group 3: Financial Performance - The company's projected revenues for 2022, 2023, and 2024 are 782 million yuan, 543 million yuan, and 412 million yuan, reflecting year-on-year changes of -6.75%, -30.57%, and -24.17% respectively [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same years is projected at -402 million yuan, -292 million yuan, and -147 million yuan, with year-on-year changes of -8.08%, 27.46%, and 49.55% respectively [3] - The company's asset-liability ratios are 78.95%, 89.64%, and 97.47% for the years 2022, 2023, and 2024 [3] Group 4: Risk Factors - The company has a total of 275 risk records, with 267 related to surrounding entities and 31 historical risks, along with 103 warning alerts [3]

Group 1 - The company plans to apply for a comprehensive credit facility of up to 700 million yuan from various financial institutions, with the credit period lasting until the annual general meeting in 2025 [1] - The financing will be used for various purposes, including but not limited to non-current and current loans, bank acceptance bills, and non-financial guarantees [1] - The board of directors has approved the financing plan, which does not require further approval from the shareholders' meeting [2] Group 2 - The company intends to secure a loan of 90 million yuan through entrusted loans, with a term of one year and an interest rate not exceeding 6%, aimed at repaying loans or supplementing working capital [2] - The company will pledge its 100% equity in Shandong Huapeng Shidao Glass Products Co., Ltd. and certain assets as collateral for the loan [2] - The financial indicators for the company show total assets of approximately 1.6 billion yuan and total liabilities of about 1.59 billion yuan as of March 31, 2025 [2] Group 3 - The internal decision-making process for the financing was completed on June 20, 2025, with the board approving the proposal without needing shareholder approval [3] - The financing is expected to align with the company's operational needs and support business development without adversely affecting its operations [3] - The company reports a good operational status and manageable financial risks, indicating that the collateral and guarantee arrangements do not harm the interests of the company and its shareholders [3]