Core Viewpoint - Australia is considering setting minimum prices for critical minerals and investing in new rare earth projects as part of a potential resource agreement with the United States [1] Group 1: Government Initiatives - The Australian government has begun discussions with mining companies about co-investing to establish a strategic mineral reserve valued at 1.2 billion AUD (approximately 777 million USD) [1] - Proposed measures under review include possible price floors, government-backed loans, purchase guarantees, and direct investments in Australian projects to support local producers [1]

Core Points - The U.S. Department of Defense is seeking to procure critical minerals worth up to $1 billion, marking an acceleration in the Trump administration's efforts to strengthen the critical mineral supply chain [1][3] - The procurement plan includes metals that were previously not on the reserve list, indicating a significant expansion of the strategic reserve [2][3] - The Defense Logistics Agency (DLA) is leading this initiative, which is part of a global stockpiling effort, causing notable fluctuations in related company stock prices [3][5] Procurement Details - The DLA plans to purchase up to $500 million worth of cobalt, $245 million worth of antimony, $100 million worth of tantalum, and approximately $45 million worth of scandium [3] - DLA is also gathering information on rare earth elements, tungsten, bismuth, and indium to further expand its reserves [4] - The DLA currently holds approximately $1.3 billion in reserve assets, which can only be utilized under specific conditions such as a declared state of war [4] Market Reactions - Market participants are shocked by the scale of DLA's planned purchases, as the quantities exceed U.S. annual production and import levels for many metals [2][6] - The Trump administration's "Big and Beautiful" plan includes $7.5 billion for critical minerals, with $2 billion allocated for strengthening national defense strategic reserves [6] Legislative Context - An executive order signed by President Trump aims to enhance domestic production capabilities for critical minerals and rare earths, allowing the use of the Defense Production Act for funding and investment support [7] - This order requires federal agencies to identify mines that can be quickly approved and federal lands suitable for mineral processing [7] Stock Performance - Following these developments, stock prices for rare earth and critical mineral companies have surged, with USA Rare Earth up over 180%, MP Materials soaring over 400%, and Energy Fuels rising nearly 300% this year [7]

无论是股票ETF/LOF基金，都是属于较高预期风险和预期收益的证券投资基金品种，其预期收益及预期 风险水平高于混合型基金、债券型基金和货币市场基金。 基金资产投资于科创板和创业板股票，会面临因投资标的、市场制度以及交易规则等差异带来的特有风 险，提请投资者注意。 板块/基金短期涨跌幅列示仅作为文章分析观点之辅助材料，仅供参考，不构成对基金业绩的保证。 文中提及个股短期业绩仅供参考，不构成股票推荐，也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。 有色金属前景与全球能源转型、国家战略和产业升级紧密相连。目前全球正处于以人工智能为引领的新 一轮产业革命时期，新能源、人形机器人等新兴产业快速发展，对铜、铝、锂、稀土等诸多有色金属需 求旺盛，部分金属目前仍面临供需不平衡的问题。 以铜为例，当前铜供需偏紧问题延续，铜价有望持续上涨。供给端，9月自由港全球第二大铜矿发生 Grasberg矿难，在中期维度加剧供给端短缺程度；需求端，全球电网升级、数据中心扩张、电动车普及 等需求均或推动铜消费快速增长。此外，冶炼端看，尽管铜冶炼产能过剩现状仍未改变，但据市场测 算，全球铜冶炼产能增速或低于矿端供给增速，冶炼产能过剩程度有望走低。 今年9月， ...

Q&A 近期铜价回调的原因是什么？ 近期铜价回调超出预期，主要原因是交易资金的被动降仓。由于前期投机性做 多资金仓位较快较猛，导致多单平掉后夜盘压力明显回落。此外，宏观因素和 关税扰动也对市场情绪产生影响。当前供需基本面和宏观趋势与 4 月初相比已 发生变化，当时供给过剩、冶炼过剩以及美国关税扰动压制了价格，而现在供 需平衡表扭转后，预计回调深度应低于今年上半年 4 月份的预期。 铜价走"V"确定性高，把握打捞时机 20251012 明年（2026 年）二季度开始复产预期受印尼雨季和旱季影响较大。印尼雨季 排水及清污难度较高，公司维持性资本开支不足，加之矿山老化，使得复产难 度增加。因此，公司预计明年减产 35%的预期偏谨慎，更可能在 20%左右。 摘要 当前铜市场情绪强烈，短期扰动或提供买入机会，长期来看，连续降息 后的市场交易化逻辑尚未结束，预计 2026 年供需缺口在 20 万吨至 23 万吨左右。 印尼雨季和旱季对铜矿复产影响大，排水和清污难度高，维持性资本开 支不足及矿山老化增加复产难度，预计明年减产幅度可能在 20%左右， 而非此前预期的 35%。 全球制造业重构及矿产清单管控加剧，对全球物质流转 ...

在为期八个月的钴出口禁令将于下周到期之际，刚果民主共和国政府公布了今年剩余时间的钴出口配 额。 刚果占到全球钴产量的四分之三左右，这种金属用于电动汽车电池、航空航天和国防工业等。 该监管机构上个月表示，今年剩余时间内，矿商将获准出口略高于18,000吨钴，2026年和2027年每年出 口量最多为96,600吨。未来两年每年许可的出口量还不到该国去年产量的一半。 其声明概述了各家公司在今年剩余时间内可以出口多少钴，并表示12月的配额将自动续期，作为明年的 月度配额。 洛阳钼业获得了2025年剩余时间内略高于三分之一的配额，预计其2026年将能够出口31200吨，这仅占 其刚果矿山去年总产量的27%。去年洛阳钼业的钴产量占全球总产量的40%以上。 尽管受到出口限制，该公司上半年的产量实际上略有增长。各家矿商一直在囤积钴，同时继续出口铜 ——这两种金属在刚果同时开采。 机构研究认为，未来两年钴均有缺口：24年全球钴供给29万吨(刚果金22万吨+印尼2.8万吨)，需求18.5 万吨，过剩10.5万吨；26年全球供给18万吨(刚果金9.66万吨+印尼4万吨)，需求20万吨，短缺2万吨。 1、所有冶炼厂没有拿到配额，华友 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes various sectors including finance and commodities, influenced by factors such as trade frictions, geopolitical events, and supply - demand dynamics. Trade frictions between the US and China, especially Trump's tariff statements, have a significant impact on market risk preferences, asset prices, and supply - demand relationships in different industries. Geopolitical events like the situation in the Middle East also affect relevant markets. Each sector has its own unique supply - demand characteristics and price trends, and investment strategies vary accordingly [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Trump plans to impose an additional 100% tariff on Chinese goods and strict export controls on software, which makes the gold price rise and increases market uncertainty. The short - term gold price is expected to be strong, but there are also factors such as profit - taking and liquidity shocks [12][13]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump's softened stance on tariffs reduces the risk of the US - China trade war, and the market risk preference rebounds. The short - term US dollar index is expected to fluctuate [14][15][16]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The intensification of tariff disturbances and the uncertainty of Sino - US relations lead to a decline in market risk preference. It is necessary to closely monitor the progress of subsequent negotiations. If the two sides' attitudes ease, it may be a good buying opportunity [17][18][19]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The escalation of Sino - US trade frictions puts pressure on the short - term risk preference of A - shares. It is recommended to reduce positions and wait for the progress of Sino - US relations [20][21][22]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducts 4090 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations. If the new regulations on fund fees are not considered, the treasury bond futures are expected to gradually strengthen. After the implementation of the new regulations, there may be opportunities to buy at low prices [23][24][25]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metal (Steam Coal) - Coastal power groups release procurement demand for imported steam coal in November, but the cost of traders is high. The short - term price rebound cannot change the seasonal weakness of coal prices from October to November [26][27]. 3.2.2 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - BHP accepts RMB settlement for iron ore trade. Although there is short - term support, the pressure on the demand side should be noted due to the weakening terminal demand [28]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The export volume of Malaysian palm oil from October 1 - 10 increased. Due to the new tariff statement by Trump, the oil market is expected to open lower this week. After the market stabilizes, long positions can be considered [29][30]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Domestic sugar production and sales data show that the destocking of old sugar slows down. The short - term upward momentum of Zhengzhou sugar is restricted, but the downside space is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate [34][35]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - Affected by weather and Sino - US trade frictions, the picking progress of Xinjiang cotton slows down, and the upper space of Zhengzhou cotton is limited in the short term. It is necessary to pay attention to the acquisition of new cotton and Sino - US relations [39][40]. 3.2.6 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The inventory of steel products increases during the holiday, and the actual pressure on finished products exists. The steel price is expected to continue the weak and volatile pattern in the near future. It is recommended to operate lightly and short on rebounds [43][44]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The proportion of drought - affected areas in US soybean production areas increases, and the sowing progress of Brazilian soybeans is good. The Sino - US trade war escalates, and the futures price is expected to show a pattern of strong domestic and weak foreign. It is necessary to pay attention to Sino - US relations and the situation of Brazilian new crops [45][46][48]. 3.2.8 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The price of new - season corn is weak. The corn market will enter the stage of production - area pricing. It is recommended to hold short positions and not enter long positions prematurely [50][51]. 3.2.9 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The inventory of corn starch enterprises increases. The spot rice - flour price difference is expected to shrink in the long - term, and the futures price difference may fluctuate at a low level [52]. 3.2.10 Agricultural Products (Jujube) - Jujube is in the transition period between old and new production seasons. The market will focus on the speculation of the opening price, and it is necessary to pay attention to the price game and acquisition progress in the production area [55]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - The resources of some copper mines increase. The short - term copper price is under pressure, but the medium - term expectation is good. It is recommended to buy on dips and wait and see for arbitrage [56][58][59]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Ford delays purchasing lithium metal. The short - term price of lithium carbonate is supported, but the long - term supply is expected to increase. It is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to the reverse spread [60][61]. 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The discount of LME lead increases, and the domestic social inventory of lead decreases. The short - term price of Shanghai lead may fluctuate upward. It is recommended to buy on dips and pay attention to delivery risks [62][63]. 3.2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc inventory decreases, and the 0 - 3 spread strengthens. The short - term zinc price is expected to fluctuate widely. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and pay attention to positive spreads for arbitrage [64][65]. 3.2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - GCL Technology obtains capital injection. The spot price of polysilicon may be stable. It is recommended to try long positions lightly and pay attention to the reverse spread [66][70]. 3.2.16 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - An industrial silicon project in Angola is put into operation. The fundamental contradiction of industrial silicon is not obvious. It is recommended to go long on dips with caution [71][72]. 3.2.17 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Indonesia adjusts the RKAB approval system. The global nickel inventory increases, but the nickel price has support at the bottom. It is recommended to go long at low prices at the beginning of the week [73][75][76]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The EU carbon price rises slightly. The investment fund's long position increases. The carbon price is expected to fluctuate strongly [77][79]. 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The number of US oil rigs decreases. The short - term oil price may be greatly affected by macro factors [80][81]. 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (PX) - The PX price falls. The short - term PX price is expected to adjust weakly [82][84]. 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong rises locally. It is necessary to be cautious when bottom - fishing [85][87]. 3.2.22 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - The PTA spot price moves down. The short - term PTA price is expected to adjust weakly [88][90]. 3.2.23 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp is stable. The pulp market is expected to fluctuate weakly [91][92]. 3.2.24 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC powder price is sorted out narrowly. It is necessary to pay attention to macro changes [93]. 3.2.25 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The bottle chip factory reduces production. The supply - demand contradiction may accumulate in the fourth quarter, and the processing fee is under pressure [95]. 3.2.26 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash price is stable. It is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to supply disturbances [96][98]. 3.2.27 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The float glass price is stable. It is recommended to pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of going long on glass 2601 and short on soda ash 2601 [99][100]. 3.2.28 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - China will charge additional fees for US ships. The container freight rate index fluctuates. It is recommended to trade with a volatile mindset and pay attention to long and short opportunities [101][104].

Core Viewpoint - The news highlights that BHP, an Australian mining company, has begun accepting partial iron ore payments in RMB from Chinese customers, indicating a shift in the settlement currency and negotiation dynamics between buyers and sellers [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - China has been the world's largest iron ore buyer for over a decade, importing more than 1 billion tons annually, primarily using USD for transactions, which has limited its negotiating power [3][5]. - The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported that iron ore exports to China exceeded 100 billion AUD in 2023, indicating the significant financial stakes for Australian miners like BHP and Rio Tinto [3][5]. - The recent rumors of China pausing Australian ore purchases lack official confirmation, and fluctuations in spot prices and freight rates are common in the market [5][9]. Group 2: Currency Settlement Changes - The shift to RMB settlement is seen as a strategic move to reduce currency exchange risks and enhance negotiation leverage for Chinese buyers [3][11]. - Brazilian mining company Vale has also attempted RMB transactions, and projects in Guinea are underway to diversify supply sources, potentially reducing reliance on Australian iron ore [7][9]. - The flexibility in pricing, including dual-currency quotes from Russian exporters, reflects a broader trend towards diversifying payment methods in the commodities market [9][13]. Group 3: Future Implications - The transition to partial RMB settlements is expected to be gradual, with USD remaining a significant currency in the market for the foreseeable future [11][15]. - For Australian miners, while immediate impacts may not be severe, profit margins could be pressured, leading to softer negotiations [11][13]. - The broader energy sector is also exploring increased RMB settlements, indicating a potential shift in global trade dynamics [13][15].

Industry Dynamics - Nvidia is hosting the 2025 Global Summit on Open Computing, and Oracle is unveiling its AI World Conference [7] - The 138th Canton Fair will be held in three phases in Guangzhou [7] - A revised Anti-Unfair Competition Law will take effect on October 15, enhancing fair competition rules in the digital economy [7] - TSMC is set to announce its earnings [8] - The 2025 World Intelligent Connected Vehicles Conference will take place in Beijing [8] Company News - Xuan Bamboo Biotechnology-B (02575.HK) is set to be listed on October 15 [9] - Yunji (02670.HK) will be listed on October 16, along with earnings announcements from China Tower and Fuyao Glass [10] - Zijin Mining will release its earnings on October 17, and Haixi New Drug (02637.HK) will be listed [11]

A股前三季度业绩预告陆续披露。截至10月12日19时，A股共有51家上市公司对外披露前三季度业绩预 告，42家预喜，预喜比例达到82.35%。部分上市公司业绩预告发布后，股价出现较为明显的上涨。除 了业绩预告外，A股三季报也陆续披露，金岭矿业、道氏技术两家公司率先披露三季报，引发市场关 注。（中证报） ...

Core Viewpoint - China has suspended imports of iron ore from BHP, a major Australian mining company, priced in US dollars, signaling a significant shift in the global iron ore market dynamics [1][2]. Group 1: Background and Context - For the past two decades, China has faced challenges in the global iron ore market, often feeling exploited despite being the largest buyer, accounting for 70% of global iron ore imports [6][12]. - The pricing mechanism, dominated by the Platts index, has led to inflated prices that do not reflect actual market conditions, resulting in significant profits for mining companies at the expense of Chinese steel manufacturers [10][12][13]. - In 2022, Australian iron ore exports to China amounted to nearly 1 billion tons, generating approximately $20 billion in profits for Australia, while Chinese steel producers struggled with an average profit margin of only 0.71% [13][14]. Group 2: Negotiation Dynamics - In August 2023, China initiated negotiations for long-term pricing contracts with BHP, proposing a price reduction to $80 per ton, reflecting a decline in global market prices [17][18]. - BHP countered with a price increase of 15%, citing future demand due to post-conflict reconstruction needs, which led to a stalemate in negotiations [20][21]. Group 3: Strategic Moves - China has strategically positioned itself by diversifying its sources of iron ore, including investments in other mining companies and securing contracts that allow for pricing in RMB rather than USD [28][29]. - The development of the Simandou iron ore project in Guinea, which is largely controlled by Chinese interests, is expected to produce significant quantities of high-grade iron ore, potentially replacing Australian imports [28][29]. - China's "Cornerstone Plan" aims to increase domestic iron ore production and enhance scrap steel recycling, leveraging cheap renewable energy to support electric arc furnaces [31]. Group 4: Market Implications - The shift in demand dynamics, with a decrease in Chinese demand for iron ore due to changes in the real estate sector, is expected to pressure Australian mining companies, which may lead to a reevaluation of pricing strategies [32][34]. - The broader implications of this shift extend beyond iron ore, as China seeks to redefine its position in global trade and establish a new order in international commodity pricing [34][35].