今日A股冲高回落，上方存在阶段性压力。板块层面多数上涨，受海内外贵金属涨幅扩大刺激，有色、 矿业、光伏等板块领涨，前期表现强势的半导体、芯片、人工智能等板块表现稍逊。截至收盘，上证指 数放量上涨，报3963.68点，上涨0.1%，深证成指涨0.54%，创业板指涨0.14%。个股层面跌多涨少，约 1800家上涨，3400余家下跌。成交方面，沪深两市成交额约2.18万亿元，较昨日放量超两千亿元，高位 分歧渐显。 本周市场持续单边运行，沪指日线录得八连阳，虽盘中多有反复，但紧贴五日线上涨，涨势颇强。周一 市场高开站上整数关口，上周的反弹趋势得以延续。周二，指数上探短周期高点附近便遇阻回落。周 三，外围贵金属突破重要阻力位置，商品市场的做多情绪扩散，受此影响A股重拾涨势。周四、周五， 随着单边行情的演进，市场中逐渐出现了些许恐高的情绪，以高位盘整走势为主。 落到操作层面，"核心底仓+卫星轮动"的组合策略或是行情中段进可攻退可守的较优选择。核心方面， 虽然近期市场颇为震荡，但一旦出现新的热点催化，行情或随时到来，底仓的配置可以避免情绪化的追 涨杀跌等非理性操作，推荐中证A500ETF(159338)捕捉中国经济中长期投 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the era of "cheap money" has ended, as indicated by the Federal Reserve's cautious stance and higher terminal interest rate expectations, marking a structural phase in the fight against inflation rather than a short-term cyclical adjustment [1] - Investors should closely monitor inflation data in January and February 2026 to see if the "tariff transmission effect" begins to reflect in end consumer prices, with the resilience of the labor market and the direction of the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield being key indicators for the Fed's ability to achieve a soft landing or initiate a tighter monetary policy [1] - The current market keyword is "vigilance," as global financial markets are adapting to a new paradigm where 3.5% is seen as a new lower bound for interest rates rather than a ceiling [1] Group 2 - In terms of technical analysis, gold is currently in a strong bullish trend, with recommendations to maintain long positions despite potential adjustments, as the overall trend remains intact [1] - Specific resistance levels for gold are noted at 4550 and 4575, while support levels are at 4492 and 4467, suggesting light position trading around these points with defined risk management strategies [2]

Metal Market - Domestic base metals collectively surged, with copper leading at a 3.6% increase, reaching a record high of 99,730 yuan/ton [1] - Aluminum rose by 1.06%, lead by 1.68%, tin by 1.37%, and nickel by 1.31%, while zinc increased by 0.72% [1] - Alumina futures saw a significant rise of 5.6%, hitting a peak of 2,830 yuan/ton, marking a new high since November 2024 [1] - Lithium carbonate futures skyrocketed by 8.12%, reaching 131,000 yuan/ton, a new high since November 2023 [1] - The black metal sector experienced a downturn, with stainless steel remaining stable at 12,955 yuan/ton, while iron ore rose by 0.71% [1] Precious Metals - COMEX gold increased by 0.86%, reaching a peak of $4,561.6/oz, continuing to set a historical high [2] - COMEX silver surged by 4.38%, hitting a record high of $75.495/oz [2] - Domestic gold rose by 0.75%, reaching a historical high of 1,023.96 yuan/gram, while silver increased by 6.6%, reaching 18,658 yuan/kg [2] - Platinum futures rose by 9.29%, reaching a historical high of 709.85 yuan/gram before slightly retracting [2] Macroeconomic Developments - The National Venture Capital Guiding Fund focuses on cutting-edge fields such as AI, biopharmaceuticals, quantum technology, and 6G, aiming to leverage trillions in social capital [5] - The fund will adopt a three-tier structure to attract local governments, financial institutions, and enterprises, with a focus on long-term investments [5] - The National Development and Reform Commission announced increased investment in early-stage projects in integrated circuits, AI, aerospace, and low-altitude economy [6][7] - As of November, China's total installed power generation capacity reached 3.79 billion kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 17.1% [7] Oil Market - Both U.S. and Brent crude oil prices rose slightly, with U.S. oil up by 0.26% and Brent by 0.19% [13] - Oil prices are expected to face the largest annual decline since 2020, with Brent and U.S. crude projected to drop approximately 17% and 18%, respectively [13] - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) will release official inventory data, reflecting demand from the world's largest oil consumer [13]

以上内容为证券之星据公开信息整理，由AI算法生成（网信算备310104345710301240019号），不构成投资建议。 从资金流向上来看，当日贵金属板块主力资金净流入1.54亿元，游资资金净流入9109.05万元，散户资金 净流出2.45亿元。贵金属板块个股资金流向见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 主力净流入(元) | 主力净占比 游资净流入 (元) | | 游资净占比 散户净流入 (元) | | 散户净占比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600547 | 山东黄金 | 1.43 Z | 10.06% | -800.16万 | -0.56% | -1.35 Z | -9.49% | | 002716 湖南白银 | | 1.07亿 | 5.28% | -3584.06万 | -1.77% | -7109.21万 | -3.51% | | 300139 | | 6303.13万 | 3.49% | 2215.56万 | 1.23% | -8518.69万 | -4.72% | | 600988 | 赤峰黄金 | 3169.77万 | ...

Market Overview - Global stock markets are closed, leading to light trading activity. After a brief adjustment, the metals sector has strengthened, with gold, silver, and copper prices reaching new highs, while platinum and palladium also rose [1] - On December 26, U.S. stock index futures fell slightly, and major European markets (Germany, France, UK, Italy) were closed for the holiday. Asian markets saw light trading, with Japan's Topix index hitting a new high [1] Metal Prices - The comprehensive rise in the metals market reflects deep investor anxiety about the macro environment and urgent demand for physical assets. Factors include expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts, a declining dollar, and geopolitical uncertainties in the Middle East and Africa [1] - Since early December, momentum-driven and speculative behavior have pushed gold and silver prices higher, with expectations of prolonged U.S. rate cuts and increased geopolitical risks contributing to new highs in precious metals [1] - Gold prices may approach $5,000 per ounce and silver prices could reach around $90 per ounce by the first half of 2026 [1] Currency Movements - The offshore yuan is currently at 7.0061, with the onshore yuan's midpoint rate set at 7.0358, up 34 points, marking a new high since September 30, 2024. The offshore yuan broke the psychological level of 7.0 for the first time since September 2024 [1] - The Japanese yen has weakened slightly, with a 0.2% drop against the dollar to around 156.17, as inflation in Japan fell more than expected, leading to increased market expectations for delayed interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan [4] - The South Korean won continued its upward trend, rising 1.2% to 1429.85, reaching its highest level since early November, following verbal interventions from authorities and new tax measures to stabilize the foreign exchange market [8] Commodity Prices - Spot gold is trading above $4,500 per ounce, currently at $4,510.54, with a daily high surpassing $4,530, marking a new historical high [10] - Spot silver recorded its fifth consecutive day of gains, currently at $74.62 per ounce, with a daily high breaking $75, also reaching a new historical high [13] - WTI crude oil rose nearly 0.3% to $58.52 per barrel, with traders closely monitoring U.S. restrictions on Venezuelan oil transport and military actions against terrorist organizations in Nigeria [19]

Market Overview - US stock index futures are slightly lower, while Asian stock markets show mixed performance, with Tokyo's Nikkei 225 index leading the gains in Asia [1][5] - Japan's cabinet approved a record defense budget exceeding 9 trillion yen (approximately 58 billion USD), contributing to a 0.7% increase in the Nikkei 225 index, closing at 50,750.39 points [6] Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices have surged to historical highs, with gold rising by 0.9% to 4,541.80 USD per ounce and silver increasing by 4.5% to 74.90 USD per ounce, briefly surpassing the 75 USD mark [1][5] - The rise in gold prices is partly attributed to market concerns over the prolonged US federal government shutdown and expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which weakened the dollar against other major currencies [1][5] Currency Exchange - The USD/JPY exchange rate increased from 155.83 to 156.25 yen, while the EUR/USD rate slightly declined from 1.1785 to 1.1777 USD [6] Stock Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.1%, closing at 3,963.68 points, while the Korean Composite Stock Price Index increased by 0.5% to 4,129.68 points, and the Taiwan Weighted Index surged by 0.7% [3][6] - Thai and Indian stock markets experienced declines [3] Commodity and Cryptocurrency - Crude oil futures saw a slight increase, with WTI rising by 18 cents to 58.53 USD per barrel and Brent up by 15 cents to 61.95 USD per barrel [4][6] - Bitcoin price increased by 2.2%, reaching 89,705 USD [4][6]

周四，国内商品普遍飘红。贵金属强势依旧，沪银上行6.6%，再创历史新高，铂金涨超9%。有色金属 全线飘红，沪铜走高3.61%，刷新历史高位，氧化铝大涨5.6%，盘中触及涨停。碳酸锂重心继续上移， 主力合约涨超8%。黑色系走势偏弱，双焦跌超1%。能源化工板块涨多跌少，对二甲苯升逾3%。农产品 大面积上扬，菜粕、棉花涨超2%。全面跟踪国内商品走势的文华商品指数报165.5点，上涨1.14%。 **贵金属延续强势 沪银铂金创历史新高** 贵金属走势分化，沪银飙升6.6%，再创历史新高，铂金涨超9%，盘中触及涨停，钯金高开低走，尾盘 跳水翻绿。此前，金银比已修复至63以下水平。上期所白银仓单连续三日下降，反映白银需求强劲，交 投情绪持续活跃，为银价上行提供了有力支撑。此外，地缘政治局势不确定性持续，市场避险情绪浓 厚，白银的金融属性同样受到资金青睐。叠加全球主要经济体货币政策维持宽松基调，在低利率环境 下，白银ETF持续获得资金流入，强劲的买盘力量亦助推银价上涨。铂金与白银在属性上更为接近，二 者均兼具工业用途与金融避险功能。近期白银价格强势突破关键阻力位，不仅提振了整体贵金属市场的 情绪，也通过比价效应和资金轮动逻 ...

金瑞期货表示，此前公布的非农以及CPI数据偏弱，市场降息预期小幅回升，叠加议息会议偏鸽，使得 金银获得一定支撑。白银继续受到工业和金融双重属性影响，在供需缺口和现货偏紧的驱动下强势上 涨；铂钯则在外盘休市和国内市场情绪和资金带动下走出独立行情。而中长期来说，宏观上包括主权国 家赤字问题、地缘风险以及去美元化驱动的央行购金等因素并未改变，金银价格的长期核心驱动因素仍 保持稳健。 新湖期货表示，市场投资热情高涨，叠加国内库存在10月底接近干涸，虽然本月以来有所回升，但仍处 于较低水平，使得国内沪银溢价大幅飙升，创下历史新高。国际方面，全球白银ETF持续流入，全球最 大的白银ETF——SLV（美国）22日单日流入533吨，是历史上第四大单日流入量。同时COMEX白银通 知交割单量持续增加，目前仍未看到交割压力缓解迹象。预计白银在12月底交割前可能仍有一定上涨空 间，但追高风险较大，建议投资者谨慎考虑。中长期来看，央行购金具有持续性，叠加全球货币的泛滥 和去美元化趋势不可逆甚至加速，将继续支撑贵金属中枢上行，后续贵金属可能仍偏强。 金瑞期货：宏观与低库存共振，银价保持强势 新湖期货：白银在12月底交割前可能仍有一定上 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant appreciation of precious metals and global stock markets in 2025, driven by factors such as yen depreciation and geopolitical uncertainties, suggesting a shift in investment strategies towards diversification and precious metals [2][4][10]. Group 1: Precious Metals Performance - As of December 24, gold prices increased by 70% compared to the end of 2024, marking the largest rise since 1979. Silver and platinum also saw their prices more than double [2]. - The Japanese Precious Metals Market Association noted that both silver and platinum, being smaller markets than gold, experienced substantial price increases in the second half of the year [5]. Group 2: Stock Market Trends - The MSCI All Country World Index, tracked by the popular global equity investment trust "eMAXIS Slim All World Equity," rose by 20% as of December 24 compared to the end of 2024. European stocks, represented by the Stoxx 600, increased by 31%, while the Nikkei index rose by 26% and the MSCI Emerging Markets Index by 28% [7]. - There is a growing sentiment that emerging market stocks have become attractive for diversification due to declining trust in the US and concerns over dollar depreciation [7]. Group 3: Currency and Economic Factors - The depreciation of the yen has led to an increase in the value of overseas assets when priced in yen. The current exchange rate is approximately 156 yen to 1 USD, with the euro appreciating to around 184 yen, marking a 13% increase compared to the end of 2024 [9]. - Expectations of economic stimulus from the European Central Bank and the EU's plans have contributed to the euro's strength against the yen [9]. Group 4: Future Investment Strategies - For 2026, diversification in investment strategies is emphasized, particularly in adjusting allocations away from a heavy focus on US stocks and technology sectors. Investments in precious metals like gold are also recommended as a hedge against currency depreciation and geopolitical risks [10]. - Market analysts suggest that precious metals possess intrinsic value and can serve as effective asset preservation tools, although the volatility of silver and platinum compared to gold should be noted [10].

来源：同花顺 上证指数今天日线迎来8连阳，追平今年以来至今的最长连阳纪录，此前共发生两次，一次发生在4月11日至22日，另一次在8月4日至13日。 有色金属板块大涨，工业金属、贵金属、小金属、能源金属等板块集体上涨。 分析人士表示，本轮有色金属板块行情驱动因素复杂，各细分板块逻辑存在明显差异。其中，工业金属（如铜、铝）的核心驱动力更偏重经济周 期的景气度变化；而贵金属（如黄金）作为"货币的锚"，行情主要受全球货币因素、风险事件变化等推动；小金属则更多与相关产业创新、细分 产业政策等因素挂钩。 今天，A股上涨。截至收盘，上证指数上涨0.1%，深证成指上涨0.54%，创业板指上涨0.14%。 首先，从供需结构来看，工业金属，尤其是铜，持续面临供不应求的失衡格局。一方面，自2015年起，全球铜矿资本开支持续低迷，供给端长期 紧缺。另一方面的需求端呈现多点爆发态势，新能源汽车、光伏、AI、人形机器人等新兴产业快速扩张，对工业金属的需求量日益剧增。 其次，从宏观环境看，据CME"美联储观察"的最新数据，美联储明年1月降息25个基点的概率升至26.6%。若美联储"如期"降息，美元走弱，将利 好金属价格。 最后，从政策面看 ...