Core Viewpoint - The black commodities sector, particularly coking coal and coke, has experienced a general price increase, with coking coal rising by 3.93% to 1165.0 yuan and coke increasing by 3.20% to 1723.0 yuan as of market close [2][9]. Group 1: Reasons for Price Increase - The macroeconomic environment shows strong bullish sentiment across various sectors, leading to an overflow of optimism towards fundamentally sound, undervalued commodities [3][10]. - For coke, data from Fenwei indicates a further contraction in coking profits this week, with reduced production and inventory at absolute low levels. Pre-holiday replenishment demand from downstream sectors and coal prices providing cost support have contributed to the resilience of coke prices [3][10]. - In terms of coking coal, Fenwei data shows an increase in premium coal production and a decrease in inventory at low levels compared to the same period last year. Despite high levels of imported coal, there are expectations of marginally weaker near-term supply as the Spring Festival approaches, alongside a rebound in thermal coal prices, which supports coking coal prices [3][10]. Group 2: Market Outlook - The Indian government's designation of coking coal as a key strategic mineral, coupled with India's high dependence on imported coking coal, may stimulate speculative demand [3][10]. - Overall, the fundamental contradictions in coking coal and coke markets are limited, with pre-holiday replenishment providing price support. Market sentiment is driving a rapid rebound in both commodities, and short-term fluctuations are expected to continue. Attention should be paid to changes in market sentiment, progress in downstream replenishment, and coal supply conditions [3][10].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, it provides trading suggestions for various futures products, including "long - term bullish, buy on dips" for stock indices, "sideways movement" for treasury bonds, etc. [1][5] Core Views - The report analyzes multiple futures markets, including macro - finance, black building materials, non - ferrous metals, energy chemicals, cotton - textile industry chain, and agricultural livestock. It provides trading suggestions and market analysis for each product based on factors such as supply - demand relationships, macro - economic conditions, and geopolitical events. [1][5][7] Summary by Category Macro - Finance - **Stock Indices**: Long - term bullish, buy on dips. Market is resilient, influenced by factors like Fed's policy, geopolitical events, and real - estate policy. [1][5] - **Treasury Bonds**: Sideways movement. There is no significant explicit negative factor, but there is limited downward space for bond yields without more capital inflow. [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: Short - term trading. Coal market shows short - term fluctuations, but price increase sustainability is limited due to factors like weak downstream demand and stable supply. [7][8] - **Rebar**: Range trading. Futures price is slightly higher than off - peak electricity cost of electric arc furnace and lower than peak electricity cost. Supply - demand contradiction is not significant in the short term. [8] - **Glass**: Hold off. Supply is stable, demand is weak in the north and has local support in the south. There is a risk of production - sales decline before the Spring Festival. [9][10] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Hold off or hold long positions with light positions and roll. Macro - factors support prices, but fundamentals are weak. There is a risk of callback before the Spring Festival. [11] - **Aluminum**: Strengthen observation. Supply is relatively stable, demand is entering the off - season, and prices may continue high - level adjustment. [13] - **Nickel**: Hold off. Indonesian quota reduction boosts sentiment, but fundamentals are weak. Price increase may be fully priced. [14][15] - **Tin**: Range trading or take profit on previous long positions. Supply is tight, consumption is in a recovery trend, and prices are expected to continue to fluctuate. [15] - **Gold**: Range trading. Geopolitical tensions and Fed's policy affect prices. Mid - term price center moves up. [17] - **Silver**: Bullish. Similar to gold, geopolitical and economic factors drive prices up. Mid - term price center moves up. [16][17] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Range - bound. Supply is affected by mine risks, demand is strong, and prices are expected to be bullish. [18][19] Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: Range trading. Cost is low, supply is high, domestic demand is weak, and export is a key factor. Low - level may have been reached, long - term long - position thinking. [19] - **Caustic Soda**: Hold off. Demand is weak, supply is high, and there is short - term delivery pressure. [21] - **Styrene**: Range trading. Price rebounds due to export and maintenance, but valuation is high. Long - term, pay attention to cost and supply - demand improvement. [21] - **Rubber**: Range trading. Supply is expected to shrink seasonally, cost supports prices, but there is a risk of callback. [23] - **Urea**: Range trading. Supply is increasing, demand from compound fertilizer and other industries supports prices, and prices are expected to move sideways. [25] - **Methanol**: Range trading. Supply decreases, demand from olefin production and traditional downstream is weak, and prices are affected by geopolitical and port factors. [26][27] - **Polyolefins**: Bearish sideways. Supply increases, demand from PE downstream declines, and PP has some support. Prices are expected to be weak. [27] - **Soda Ash**: Hold off. Supply is expected to contract, demand from downstream is mixed, and cost supports prices. [28] Cotton - Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Sideways adjustment. Global cotton supply decreases and demand increases, but internal - external price difference suppresses domestic prices. [28] - **Apples**: Sideways movement. Market is generally stable and weak, with different trading situations in different regions. [30] - **Jujubes**: Sideways movement. Raw material acquisition in the production area is based on quality, with a high - quality - high - price principle. [30] Agricultural Livestock - **Pigs**: Bottom - building. Short - term price fluctuations are limited, and long - term price increase is cautious. Short - term, short on rallies for off - season contracts; long - term, pay attention to capacity reduction. [31][33] - **Eggs**: Rebound from low levels. Current valuation is high, and it is recommended to hedge post - festival contracts on rallies. [34][35] - **Corn**: Upside limited. Short - term supply - demand is balanced, and long - term supply - demand is relatively loose. [36][37] - **Soybean Meal**: Sideways at low levels. Short - term, M2603 contract moves sideways; long - term, 05 contract is under pressure. [37] - **Oils**: Bullish sideways. Fundamental factors support price increases, but the upward momentum may weaken over time. [37][43]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The commodity market is experiencing intensified fluctuations, and the A - share market is in an accelerated style rotation phase. The short - term market will mainly feature structural opportunities, and the medium - term trend remains positive under policy expectations and fundamental support [2][3]. - The precious metals market has seen sharp fluctuations, and the short - term risk has increased. The current rally driven by market sentiment and speculative funds may be near its end [4][5]. - Copper prices are driven by both hedging and speculation, with the valuation rising. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate widely at high levels, and the downward adjustment space is limited [6][7]. - Aluminum prices have shown large fluctuations at high levels due to strong profit - taking intentions. The market is dominated by sentiment, and attention should be paid to volatility risks [8][9]. - Alumina prices are stabilizing and oscillating. Supply - demand surplus pressure has slightly eased, and follow - up production capacity changes should be monitored [10]. - Cast aluminum is facing a situation of weak supply and demand, and its price movement follows the cost and oscillates at high levels [11]. - Zinc prices are running strongly, but weak demand makes it difficult to support high prices. Short - term prices are expected to be strong but with large fluctuations [12][13]. - Lead prices follow the non - ferrous metal sector. Although there is support at the bottom, the upside is limited in the short term and is expected to oscillate around 17,000 [15]. - Tin prices are expected to oscillate at high levels, with trading enthusiasm converging. The supply of tin ore has improved slightly, and the demand shows a game between weak reality and strong expectations [16]. - Steel prices are oscillating and rebounding. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand and inventory accumulation before the holiday, and the overall trend is oscillating [17]. - Iron ore prices are following the sector's rise and rebounding. The overall supply is strong and demand is weak, and the futures price is expected to oscillate [18]. - Coking coal and coke prices are oscillating and rebounding. Supply is shrinking before the holiday, and the downstream demand is weak. The futures price is expected to oscillate [19]. - Soybean meal and rapeseed meal prices are expected to oscillate. US soybean export sales are expected to slow down, and downstream stocking demand is weakening [20][21]. - Palm oil prices are expected to oscillate strongly. The macro environment and fundamentals are favorable, and attention should be paid to whether the pressure level can be effectively broken through [22]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: Political uncertainty and geopolitical risks in the US are rising, leading to differentiated market risk preferences and increased volatility. The US Senate's appropriation bill is blocked, and there is a risk of a partial government shutdown. The US stock market is adjusted due to concerns about AI capital expenditure returns, and the 10Y US Treasury yield is at 4.23%. The US dollar index has recovered to 96.3. Gold is oscillating at a high level, crude oil has strengthened significantly, and LME copper has reached a record high [2]. - Domestic: The A - share market closed up on Thursday with a rotation of styles. Funds returned to the dividend sector, and technology stocks led the decline. The trading volume of the two markets rebounded to 3.26 trillion yuan, and the margin trading scale reached a new high of 2.74 trillion yuan. The short - term market will mainly feature structural opportunities, and the medium - term trend is positive [3]. 3.2 Precious Metals - Prices fluctuated sharply on Thursday. COMEX gold reached a record high in the morning and then tumbled at night, while COMEX silver also reached a record high and then gave up its gains. The flash crash at night was mainly due to profit - taking after the January delivery of COMEX ended, and then prices rose again after Trump's remarks. In 2025, global gold demand exceeded 5000 tons for the first time, and investment demand increased by 84% to 2175 tons. Central bank gold purchases slowed down by one - fifth to 863 tons [4][5]. - The current rally driven by market sentiment and speculative funds may be near its end, and the short - term adjustment risk is increasing. The gold - silver ratio is expected to recover from a low level [5]. 3.3 Copper - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai copper oscillated and declined, and LME copper reached a high of 14,500 and then fell back to 13,700. The domestic spot market had poor trading, and downstream buyers were hesitant. LME and COMEX inventories increased [6]. - The market is affected by geopolitical risks, and the volatility will further increase. The overall metal valuation will rise in the wave of AI and global electrification transformation. A copper mine in Chile is on strike, and the mine has proposed a new labor contract [6][7]. - Short - term prices are expected to oscillate widely at high levels, and the downward adjustment space is limited [7]. 3.4 Aluminum - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 25,590 yuan/ton, up 2.92%, and LME aluminum closed at 3233.5 US dollars/ton, down 0.92%. Aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories increased [8]. - The US government faces a partial shutdown risk, and Iran will hold a military exercise. The sharp fluctuations in precious metals and copper prices at night affected market sentiment, and profit - taking intentions were strong. The market is dominated by sentiment, and attention should be paid to volatility risks [8][9]. 3.5 Alumina - On Thursday, the main futures contract of alumina closed at 2816 yuan/ton, up 1.66%. The national average spot price was 2648 yuan/ton, unchanged. The theoretical import window was open, and the warehouse receipt inventory increased [10]. - After some alumina plants reduced production, the supply - demand surplus pressure has slightly eased, but the overall supply still exceeds demand. Follow - up production capacity changes should be monitored [10]. 3.6 Cast Aluminum - On Thursday, the main futures contract of cast aluminum alloy closed at 23,850 yuan/ton, up 1.3%. Spot prices also rose. The exchange inventory increased [11]. - Affected by weakening demand, the operating rate of cast aluminum continued to decline, and consumption continued to weaken. Cast aluminum itself has few contradictions, and its price movement follows the primary aluminum and oscillates at high levels [11]. 3.7 Zinc - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai zinc strengthened during the day and then fell back at night, reaching a new high of 26,985 yuan/ton. The spot market maintained a small discount. Social inventories increased slightly. Some mines had positive news about production [12]. - The market is affected by the uncertainty of the Iranian situation and the rise in overseas smelting costs. Although the overall situation is favorable, weak demand makes it difficult to support high prices. Short - term prices are expected to be strong but with large fluctuations [12][13]. 3.8 Lead - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai lead rose during the day and then fell back at night. The spot market saw active selling by holders, and the social inventory increased slightly [15]. - Lead prices follow the non - ferrous metal sector. Although there is support at the bottom due to environmental regulations and production cuts, the upside is limited in the short term and is expected to oscillate around 17,000 [15]. 3.9 Tin - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai tin oscillated during the day and then fell back at night. The spot market had different price premiums. The trading enthusiasm has converged, and the main contract position has not increased significantly [16]. - The supply of tin ore has improved slightly, and the demand shows a game between weak reality and strong expectations. The medium - and long - term supply - demand situation is good. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate at high levels [16]. 3.10 Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - On Thursday, steel futures oscillated and rebounded. The trading volume of the spot market was 7.3 million tons. The supply of the five major steel products increased slightly, and the inventory continued to accumulate. Many electric arc furnace steel mills will stop production during the Spring Festival [17]. - Before the holiday, steel mill maintenance increases, and the supply pressure decreases. The demand is weak, and the market is in a situation of weak supply and demand and inventory accumulation. The overall trend is oscillating [17]. 3.11 Iron Ore - On Thursday, iron ore futures oscillated and rebounded. The trading volume of the spot market was 86 million tons. Steel mill inventories increased due to pre - holiday restocking, but the daily consumption was at a low level. Overseas shipments increased slightly, and port inventories were at a high level [18]. - The overall supply is strong and demand is weak, and the futures price is expected to oscillate [18]. 3.12 Coking Coal and Coke - On Thursday, coking coal and coke futures oscillated and rebounded. The price of Shanxi main coking coal decreased, and the price of Shanxi quasi - first - grade coke increased. Many coal mines will stop production during the Spring Festival, affecting a large amount of production capacity [19]. - Supply is shrinking before the holiday, and the downstream demand is weak. Although there is still some restocking expectation before the holiday, the overall driving force is limited. The futures price is expected to oscillate [19]. 3.13 Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - On Thursday, the 05 contract of soybean meal closed up 0.9%, and the 05 contract of rapeseed meal closed up 1.84%. US soybean export sales decreased significantly in the week ending January 22. Argentina's soybean sales increased, and Brazil's soybean export forecast for January 25 - 31 is 189.245 million tons [20]. - US soybean export sales are expected to slow down as China shifts its purchases to the South American market. The expected high yield in Brazil limits the upside of the market. Downstream stocking demand is weakening before the Spring Festival. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate [20][21]. 3.14 Palm Oil - On Thursday, the 05 contract of palm oil closed up 1.15%. The US dollar index is weak, and there is a risk of supply interruption in Iran, leading to a significant rise in oil prices. China has completed the customs clearance of Australian rapeseed [22]. - The macro environment and fundamentals are favorable for the oil sector. Palm oil prices are approaching the pressure level. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate strongly, and attention should be paid to whether the pressure level can be effectively broken through [22].

期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2026 年 1 月 30 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 强势 | 震荡 | 氛围有所改善，焦煤偏强运行 | | 焦炭 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 持续性支撑不足，焦炭区间震荡 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：强势 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：1 月 29 日夜盘，焦煤主力合约一度涨至 1200 ...

盘江股份涨停，云煤能源涨超9%，新大洲A、大有能源、宝泰隆、恒源煤电、陕西黑猫跟涨。 ...

商 品 研 究 2026 年 01 月 30 日 焦炭：一轮提涨落地，高位震荡 焦煤：事件发酵，高位震荡 刘豫武 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023649 liuyuwu2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 焦煤焦炭基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | JM2605 | 1165 | 30. 5 | 2.7% | | 期货价格 | | 12605 | 1723 | 3d | 2. 3% | | | | | 昨日成交(手) | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变动(手) | | | | JM2605 | 822672 | 477466 | -21444 | | | | 12605 | 17785 | 36429 | -1708 | | | | | 昨日价格(元/吨) | 前日价格(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | | | | 临汾低硫主焦 | 1640 | 1640 | 0 | | | | 吕梁低硫主焦 | 1483 | 1483 | 0 | | | 焦煤 | 吕梁瘦主焦煤 | 1243 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report provides daily research and analysis on various commodities in the black series, including iron ore, rebar, hot-rolled coils, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, thermal coal, and logs. It presents the latest market trends, price movements, and fundamental data for each commodity, along with corresponding trading strategies and trend strength ratings [2][4]. 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - The price of iron ore futures (I2605) closed at 798.5 yuan/ton, up 15.5 yuan or 1.98% from the previous day. The持仓 decreased by 9,221 hands to 555,392 hands. The price of imported and domestic iron ore increased slightly, while the price of some domestic iron ore remained unchanged. The basis and spreads showed certain fluctuations [4]. - The trend strength is rated as 1, indicating a relatively strong upward trend [5]. Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coils - The price of rebar futures (RB2605) closed at 3,157 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan or 1.12%, and the price of hot-rolled coil futures (HC2605) closed at 3,308 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan or 0.79%. The trading volume and open interest of both increased. The spot prices of rebar and hot-rolled coils in different regions showed varying degrees of increase or remained unchanged [7]. - The trend strength of both rebar and hot-rolled coils is rated as 0, indicating a neutral trend [10]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese futures increased. The spot price of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia increased, while the spot price of silicomanganese remained unchanged. The basis, spreads, and other indicators showed certain fluctuations [11]. - The trend strength of both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is rated as 0, indicating a neutral trend [15]. Coke and Coking Coal - The price of coking coal futures (JM2605) closed at 1,165 yuan/ton, up 30.5 yuan or 2.7%, and the price of coke futures (J2605) closed at 1,723 yuan/ton, up 39 yuan or 2.3%. The trading volume of coking coal increased, while the open interest decreased. The spot prices of coking coal and coke in different regions remained mostly unchanged [17]. - The trend strength of both coke and coking coal is rated as 0, indicating a neutral trend [20]. Thermal Coal - The prices of thermal coal in production areas, ports, and overseas markets showed different degrees of change. The 1 - month long - term contract price decreased. The port market was stable with a slightly upward trend, and the pit - mouth price also showed a strong trend [21][22]. - The report suggests that the supply and demand of thermal coal are both weakening, and the coal price is slightly rising. Logs - The prices of log futures contracts showed an upward trend, and the trading volume of some contracts increased significantly. The spot prices of logs in different regions and varieties showed little change or a slight increase [23]. - The trend strength of logs is rated as 0, indicating a neutral trend [26].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 2: Core Views of the Report - In January, domestic thermal coal prices moved within a narrow range, showing a trend of rising first and then falling. As of January 23, the price of 5500K thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port decreased by 9 yuan/ton month-on-month to 686 yuan/ton, and has maintained a weak and stable operation since the middle of the month [3][57]. - On the supply side, in December 2025, the national raw coal output was 437 million tons, still down 1.0% year-on-year, but the absolute output reached the highest level of the year. In the new year, some coal mines that had stopped production due to the completion of annual targets resumed production one after another, and the coal mines in the producing areas were producing steadily. In terms of imports, in December, China imported 58.6 million tons of coal and lignite, refreshing the highest monthly import volume last year, a year-on-year increase of 11.9%. The stable production of domestic coal mines and the high level of imports still put some pressure on coal prices [3][57]. - On the demand side, in December, the total social electricity consumption was 908 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 2.8%; the power generation of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 858.62 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 0.1%. In late January, affected by the cold wave, the temperature in coastal cities dropped sharply, and the daily coal consumption of power plants climbed. This winter, the overall temperature in China was relatively warm, and the heating demand in coastal cities only improved significantly in January. In addition, the profit of the non-power chemical industry was under pressure, and the enthusiasm for replenishing inventory was also limited [3][57]. - In terms of inventory, as of January 26, the total inventory of thermal coal at the nine ports in the Bohai Rim was 25.83 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 3.944 million tons, and slightly higher than the inventory of the same period last year by 347,000 tons. As of January 22, the coal inventory of power plants in 17 inland provinces was 90.104 million tons, with 20.2 days of available coal; the coal inventory of 8 coastal provinces was 32.994 million tons, with 13.7 days of available coal [4][58]. - Overall, in the context of the lack of production capacity control policies in the coal industry, the market has a long-term loose expectation for thermal coal. Even during the peak winter season, downstream users still purchase cautiously. Considering the support during the peak season and the fact that coal prices are difficult to fall sharply under the tone of the anti-involution policy, it is expected that thermal coal prices will still move within a narrow range in February. However, as the peak winter season approaches the end after the Spring Festival, coal prices may be under pressure to weaken under the expectation of the off-season [4][58]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory Chapter 1: Market Review 1.1 Price Review - In January, domestic thermal coal prices moved within a narrow range, showing a trend of rising first and then falling. As of January 21, the price of 5500K thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port decreased by 14 yuan/ton month-on-month to 689 yuan/ton, and has maintained a weak and stable operation since the middle of the month. At present, the supply and demand of domestic thermal coal are both strong, but downstream users have a weak expectation of the sustainability of winter demand. Coupled with the acceptable inventory levels in the middle and lower reaches, most enterprises replenish inventory on demand based on long-term agreement coal, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment and weak speculative demand, reflecting the market's cautious expectation of the subsequent price trend. Considering the support of the peak season and the downstream's need to replenish inventory, it is expected that thermal coal prices will still move within a narrow range in February, but as the peak winter season approaches the end after the Spring Festival, coal prices may be under pressure to weaken under the expectation of the off-season [8]. - In the international market, the international mainstream thermal coal price index also moved steadily in January. As of the week of January 23, the European ARA port coal price index reported 95.88 US dollars/ton, flat month-on-month, and 23.37 US dollars lower than the price of the same period last year; the Newcastle NEWC6000 index reported 111.26 US dollars/ton, a month-on-month increase of 4.31 US dollars/ton, and 4.28 US dollars lower than the price of the same period last year; the South African Richards Bay RB index reported 85.25 US dollars/ton, flat month-on-month, and 17.25 US dollars lower than the price of the same period last year [8]. 1.2 Futures-Spot Price Difference - As of January 23, the price of the main thermal coal contract was 115.4 yuan/ton higher than the price of 5500 kcal thermal coal produced in Shanxi at Qinhuangdao Port [13]. Chapter 2: Analysis of Factors Affecting Prices 2.1 Supply Side 2.1.1 Origin Situation - In December 2025, the national raw coal output was 437 million tons, still down 1.0% year-on-year, but the absolute output reached the highest level of the year. In 2025, the cumulative national raw coal output was 4.832 billion tons, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 1.2%. High-frequency data showed that in the week of January 23, the capacity utilization rate of 462 thermal coal mines nationwide was 89.6%, and the average daily raw coal output was 5.41 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 57,000 tons/day. In the new year, some coal mines that had stopped production due to the completion of annual targets resumed production one after another, and the coal mines in the producing areas were producing steadily. However, in February, with the arrival of the Spring Festival, some private coal mines may enter the shutdown and vacation state in advance, driving the contraction of raw coal output [16]. - In terms of provinces, in December 2025, the raw coal output in Shanxi was 113 million tons, slightly 0.7% lower than the same period last year, and the decline was 2.6 percentage points narrower than that in November; from January to December, the cumulative raw coal output in Shanxi was 1.305 billion tons, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 2.1%. In Inner Mongolia, in December 2025, the raw coal output was 121 million tons, the same as the same period last year; from January to December, the cumulative raw coal output in Inner Mongolia was 1.29 billion tons, a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 1.0%. In Shaanxi, in December 2025, the raw coal output was 74 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.9%, and it was the only province in the main producing areas that maintained positive growth; from January to December, the cumulative raw coal output in Shaanxi was 805 million tons, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 2.9%. In Xinjiang, in December 2025, the raw coal output was 54 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 8.0%; from January to December, the cumulative output in Xinjiang was 553 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.9% [17]. - Overall, the impact of the "anti-involution" policy in the coal industry has gradually materialized, and the year-on-year decline in coal production in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia has significantly narrowed. In January, the coal mines in the main producing areas of China were producing steadily, but it is expected that in February, affected by the Spring Festival holiday, coal production will decline seasonally. At the same time, attention should be paid to whether there are new positive signals from the "anti-involution" policy [18]. 2.1.2 Import Volume - In December 2025, China imported 58.6 million tons of coal and lignite, refreshing the highest monthly import volume last year, a month-on-month increase of 33.0% and a year-on-year increase of 11.9%; from January to December, the cumulative import volume was 490.27 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 9.6%. - High-frequency data showed that in the first two weeks of January, the arrival volume of seaborne coal in China was 13.252 million tons, equivalent to an average daily arrival volume of 1.104 million tons, a month-on-month decline compared with the average daily arrival volume of 1.317 million tons in December, but a year-on-year increase of 13.8%. The Mongolian coal imported by railway increased significantly in December last year. Only at the Ganqimaodu Port, there were 37,291 vehicle passages, a further increase of 27.5% compared with the high import volume in November. In January, the daily vehicle passage number at this port briefly dropped from about 1,500 vehicles to 1,200 vehicles, and gradually recovered in the middle of the month. Data showed that as of January 20, the total customs clearance of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port was 19,890 vehicles, a month-on-month decrease of 24.9% and a year-on-year increase of 25.4%. According to reports from information agencies, Mongolia plans to increase its coal exports from 84 million tons in 2026 to 90 million tons, and strive to reach 100 million tons in 2027 [25][26]. 2.2 Intermediate Link Transportation 2.2.1 Datong-Qinhuangdao Railway - In December 2025, the Datong-Qinhuangdao Railway completed a freight volume of 34.43 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.68%, and the average daily freight volume was 1.1106 million tons. From January to December 2025, the Datong-Qinhuangdao Railway cumulatively completed a freight volume of 390.04 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.54%. From a high-frequency data perspective, as of January 22, the Datong-Qinhuangdao Railway completed a freight volume of 22.0872 million tons, a 11.5% decrease compared with December, equivalent to an average daily freight volume of 1.004 million tons [29]. 2.2.2 Ports in the Bohai Rim - iFind data showed that in December 2025, the total railway coal inflow volume of the seven major ports in the Bohai Rim (Qinhuangdao Port, Caofeidian Port, Donggang of Jingtang Port, Jingtang Port Coal Company, Huanghua Port, Huadian Caofeidian Port, and Caofeidian Phase II Port) was 46.556 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.86%, equivalent to an average daily inflow of 1.5018 million tons. As of January 26, 2026, the cumulative inflow of the seven ports in the Bohai Rim was 36.241 million tons, equivalent to an average daily inflow of 1.3939 million tons [30][31]. - In terms of outflow, in December 2025, the total coal outflow of the seven major ports in the Bohai Rim was 46.009 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 13.48%, equivalent to an average daily outflow of 1.4842 million tons. As of January 26, 2026, the cumulative outflow of the seven ports in the Bohai Rim was 38.248 million tons, equivalent to an average daily outflow of 1.471 million tons. - Since January, the coal outflow efficiency of the port group in the Bohai Rim has basically remained stable, but the inflow volume has decreased month-on-month, showing that the coal inventory in the northern port group has decreased. iFind data showed that as of January 26, the total inventory of thermal coal at the nine ports in the Bohai Rim was 25.83 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 3.944 million tons, and slightly higher than the inventory of the same period last year by 347,000 tons. Overall, affected by multiple cold snaps, the heating demand of residents in coastal areas has improved, driving the seasonal decrease of coal inventory in northern ports to a level close to that of the same period last year. As of January 22, the coal inventory of 8 coastal provinces was 32.994 million tons, with 13.7 days of available coal. There is still a need to replenish inventory in the short term, but considering the decline in the electricity demand of the secondary industry around the Spring Festival and the gradual warming of the temperature after the festival, the wait-and-see sentiment in the spot market is still getting stronger, downstream users purchase cautiously, and the upward momentum of coal prices is limited [33]. 2.2.3 Shipping Situation - In January, the trends of the domestic and international shipping markets were somewhat differentiated, among which the international dry bulk market fluctuated within a narrow range. iFind data showed that as of January 26, the BDI index closed at 1,780 points, a month-on-month decrease of 5.2% and a year-on-year increase of 133.9%. Looking at the sub-vessel types, the freight rates of Capesize vessels declined during January, the freight rates of Panamax vessels rose significantly, and the freight rates of Supramax vessels were relatively stable. As of January 26, the Capesize (BCI) index closed at 2,626 points, a month-on-month decrease of 20.9% and a year-on-year increase of 174.1%. The Panamax (BPI) index reported 1,612 points, a month-on-month increase of 27.2% and a year-on-year increase of 112.4%. The Supramax (BSI) index reported 1,035 points, a month-on-month decrease of 9.5% and a year-on-year increase of 64.5%. - In the domestic shipping market, as of January 26, the CBCFI index closed at 679.17 points, a month-on-month increase of 12.4% and a year-on-year increase of 42.6%. Affected by the continuous cold air, the daily coal consumption of coastal power plants has entered the peak stage of the year, and the demand for replenishing inventory has been slowly released. At the same time, under extreme weather such as rain and snow, the phenomenon of port closures has increased, the supply of shipping is weak and the demand is strong, and the freight rates have certain support, and may maintain a relatively strong operation in February [36][38]. 2.3 Demand Side 2.3.1 Total Social Electricity Consumption - According to data from the National Energy Administration, the total social electricity consumption in December was 908 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 2.8%. In 2025, the cumulative total social electricity consumption was 1.03682 trillion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 5.0%. From the perspective of electricity consumption by industry, the electricity consumption of the primary industry was 14.94 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 9.9%; the electricity consumption of the secondary industry was 663.66 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%; the electricity consumption of the tertiary industry was 199.42 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 8.2%; the electricity consumption of urban and rural residents' living was 158.8 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%. The electricity consumption of the tertiary industry and urban and rural residents' living contributed 50% to the growth of electricity consumption. The electricity consumption growth rates of the charging and battery swapping service industry and the information transmission, software, and information technology service industry reached 48.8% and 17.0% respectively, which were important reasons for driving the growth of electricity consumption in the tertiary industry [41]. - In January, China entered a critical period for peak winter power consumption, and the coal consumption of power plants across the country entered the peak stage of the year. Data showed that as of January 22, the daily coal consumption of power plants in 17 inland provinces was 4.459 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 337,000 tons/day, the coal inventory was 90.104 million tons, with 20.2 days of available coal; the daily coal consumption of power plants in 8 coastal provinces was 2.417 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 239,000 tons, the coal inventory was 32.994 million tons, with 13.7 days of available coal. Overall, in January, the supply and demand of thermal coal were both strong, but downstream users had a weak expectation of the sustainability of winter demand. Coupled with the acceptable inventory levels in the middle and lower reaches, most enterprises replenished inventory on demand based on long-term agreement coal, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment and weak speculative demand, reflecting the market's cautious expectation of the subsequent price trend. Considering the support of the peak season and the downstream's need to replenish inventory, it is expected that thermal coal prices will still move within a narrow range in February, but

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - As of January 26, 2026, the closing price of the national carbon market's carbon emission allowances (CEA) was 81.79 yuan/ton, up 12.69% from the same period last month and down 12.46% from the same period last year. The average trading volume of national carbon emission allowances in the past 30 trading days was 145.2 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 64.7 million tons, indicating a decline in the activity of the carbon emission spot market [1][55]. - As of January 27, 2026, the quotation of 5500K coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 686 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton higher than the end of last month and 77 yuan/ton lower than the end of 2024. During the peak winter period, the supply and demand of thermal coal are strong, but the market expects long - term looseness. Downstream users are still cautious in purchasing. It is expected that the thermal coal price will remain in a narrow range in February, and may weaken after the Spring Festival [1][55]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Industry News - In 2025, the national carbon market operated smoothly and orderly, with steadily increasing market vitality. The carbon - reduction awareness of key emission units in the carbon emission trading market continued to strengthen, and the quota settlement completion rate remained at a high level. The support area of the voluntary greenhouse gas emission - reduction trading market was further expanded, and the market expanded rapidly. The total number of key emission units under quota management was 3378, including 2087 in the power generation industry, 232 in the steel industry, 962 in the cement industry, and 97 in the aluminum smelting industry. The market operated for 243 trading days. The cumulative trading volume of carbon emission allowances in 2025 was 235 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 24%, and the trading volume was 14.63 billion yuan. The trading price remained in a reasonable range [7]. - In 2026, the National Development and Reform Commission will fully implement the dual control of carbon emission总量 and intensity. It will strengthen work measures in energy transformation, industrial upgrading, comprehensive conservation, and scientific assessment. It will develop non - fossil energy, build a new power system, promote industrial upgrading, implement a comprehensive conservation strategy, and establish a scientific assessment system [10][11][12]. - In 2025, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment carried out climate change response actions, promoted the coordinated progress of pollution reduction and carbon reduction, and accelerated the green and low - carbon transformation. In 2026, it will actively respond to climate change, strengthen ecological environment law enforcement supervision, and improve the adaptability to climate change [13][15][16]. 3.2 National Carbon Market Carbon Emission Allowances (CEA) - As of January 26, 2026, the closing price of CEA was 81.79 yuan/ton, up 12.69% from the same period last month and down 12.46% from the same period last year. In the past 30 trading days, the average trading volume was 141.3 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 67.4 million tons, indicating a decline in market activity [17]. 3.3 Carbon Price Influence Factor Analysis 3.3.1 Energy Price - There is a certain correlation between the carbon emission market and the energy market. When energy demand is strong and energy prices rise, the demand for carbon emission allowances also increases, and a stronger carbon price promotes corporate low - carbon emission reduction. As of January 27, 2026, the port prices of thermal coal at different calorific values and the pit - mouth prices in some regions have changed compared to the end of last month and the end of 2024. The coke price has decreased, and the natural gas price has increased [20][21][22]. 3.3.2 Energy Consumption - From January to November 2025, the cumulative apparent consumption of natural gas nationwide was 388 billion cubic meters, 570 million cubic meters less than the same period last year; the cumulative apparent consumption of coke was 454.5211 million tons, 15.4757 million tons less than the same period last year; from January to December 2025, the total apparent consumption of gasoline, kerosene, and diesel was 376.7113 million tons, 6.2874 million tons less than the same period last year [2][32][56]. 3.3.3 Domestic Carbon Emission Structure - China's total carbon emissions exceed 10 billion tons, accounting for about one - third of global carbon emissions. In 2021, the largest carbon - emitting industry was the "production and supply of electricity, steam, and hot water" with 5.253 billion tons, accounting for 50.72%. By energy type, coal - related energy consumption was the main source of carbon emissions in 2021, accounting for 67.2% of the total [38][40][45]. 3.3.4 Total Social Electricity Consumption - In 2025, the total social electricity consumption was 10.3682 trillion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 5.0%. The electricity consumption of the third industry and urban and rural residents' living contributed 50% to the growth of electricity consumption. The slowdown in the electricity consumption growth rate of the secondary industry was in line with China's economic structural transformation [47]. 3.3.5 Power Generation Structure - In December 2025, the power generation of above - scale industrial enterprises was 858.6 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. The proportion of clean energy power generation in December was 32.3%, 2.9 percentage points higher than the same period last year. In 2025, the thermal power generation of above - scale industrial enterprises had a year - on - year negative growth for the first time since 2014, indicating a turning point in the power industry's development model and accelerating the low - carbon transformation of the power system [52][53]. 3.4 Conclusion - The situation of the national carbon market CEA price and trading volume is the same as the core viewpoints. The energy price, energy consumption, and power - related data are also consistent with the previous analysis [55][56][57].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coking coal and coke in the black sector is "oscillating and bullish" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The market shows a strong expectation of demand improvement. Although the downstream demand is expected to decline before the Spring Festival and the auction performance is average, the first - round price increase of coke has been fully implemented. After the Spring Festival, there may be a certain restocking demand for coking coal, and the coking enterprises need to maintain basic daily consumption. The relaxation of the "Three Red Lines" policy for real - estate enterprises is beneficial to the real estate and upstream industries. The coking coal futures contract is expected to continue to rise at the opening today, and attention should be paid to whether it can stand above 1200 at the close [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - Yesterday, the main coking coal contract Jm2605 closed at 1165.0 yuan/ton, up 2.69% from the opening of the day session; the main coke contract J2605 closed at 1723.0 yuan/ton, up 2.32% from the opening of the day session. In last night's session, the main coking coal contract closed at 1193.0 yuan/ton, up 2.40% from the close of the day session, and the main coke contract closed at 1756.5 yuan/ton, up 1.94% from the close of the day session [1] 3.2 Important News - On January 28, some steel mills in Hebei and Tianjin regions raised the purchase price of coke for the first round. The price of wet - quenched coke was raised by 50 yuan/ton, and the price of dry - quenched coke was raised by 55 yuan/ton, effective at 0:00 on January 30, 2026 [1] - This week, the supply of five major steel products was 823.17 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.58 million tons, an increase of 0.4%; the total inventory was 1278.51 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 21.43 million tons, an increase of 1.7%; the weekly apparent consumption was 801.74 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.0% [1] - This week, the utilization rate of the approved production capacity of 523 coking coal mine samples was 89.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.2%. The daily average output of raw coal was 1.978 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 160,000 tons, and the raw coal inventory was 5.496 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.09 million tons [1] - According to Mysteel's research on the Spring Festival shutdown of 95 independent electric - arc furnace steel mills, most of them will shut down in February. Among them, the number of shut - down steel mills from February 1 to February 8 is the largest, reaching 44, accounting for 47.83%, close to half [1] 3.3 Market Logic - India has listed coking coal as a key strategic mineral. As the world's second - largest steel producer with rapid steel production expansion, India's domestic coking coal production cannot meet its demand and it relies on Australian imports. At the end of last December, the Indian government imposed anti - dumping duties on low - ash metallurgical coke imported from six countries including China, which further drives up the demand for domestic coking coal [1] - In the domestic market, the downstream demand is expected to decline before the Spring Festival, and the auction performance is average. Although the first - round price increase of coke has been fully implemented today, there is unlikely to be a second - round increase before the Spring Festival. Macroscopically, many real - estate enterprises are no longer required by regulatory authorities to report the "Three Red Lines" indicators monthly, which is beneficial to the real - estate and upstream industries. During the Spring Festival, the supply side will reduce production, and coking enterprises need to maintain basic daily consumption. There may be a certain restocking demand for coking coal after the Spring Festival [1] 3.4 Trading Strategy - The main coking coal contract has risen strongly, with short - sellers significantly reducing their positions for two consecutive days, driving long - sellers to increase their positions and the price to rise last night. It is expected to continue to rise at the opening today, and attention should be paid to whether it can stand above 1200 at the close [1]