今年以来，由潮玩IP、国潮黄金、宠物经济、新茶饮引发的新消费投资潮日益火热。尤其是 二季度以来，多家新消费企业股价涨幅超30%，吸引了上百家公募基金、保险资管、外资等 机构投资者多次调研。 新消费企业被密集调研 今年以来，新消费龙头股表现亮眼， 泡泡玛特 、 老铺黄金 、 中宠股份 等股价走势强劲， 多家新消费企业迎来机构投资者的密集调研。 例如，4月中旬以来国际金价高位波动，潮宏基、周大生等被机构广泛关注。二季度以来，潮 宏基被178家机构合计调研3次，其中包括39家公募基金、7家保险公司及保险资管公司，以 及9家外资机构。二季度以来，潮宏基股价涨幅为74.71%，近一年来涨幅达183.42%。 潮宏基 旗下有"CHJ潮宏基""VENTI梵迪"及"FION菲安妮"等品牌，业务收入以黄金、时尚珠 宝和女包为主。2024年，潮宏基加盟门店逆势增长。2025年，潮宏基推进品牌"出海"业务， 在柬埔寨金边永旺商场、西港Umall商场开设门店，为其品牌的国际化战略布局奠定基础。 周大生 吸引了216家机构调研，合计调研14次，其中包括45家公募基金、11家外资机构、 15家保险公司及保险资管公司。6月19日，周大生发 ...

Core Insights - The pet industry in China is experiencing significant growth, with the market size increasing from 97.8 billion yuan in 2015 to 592.8 billion yuan in 2023, and projected to reach 811.4 billion yuan by 2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 25.4% [1] - The number of pets in China is expected to reach 430 million by 2024, with cat owners numbering 40.88 million, indicating an average of two cats per owner, and this figure is projected to grow to 570 million by 2029 [1] - The growth of the pet economy is driven by emotional factors, policy support, and technological innovation, which have encouraged companies to invest in research and development and improve product quality [1] Market Dynamics - The consumer base for pets is becoming younger and more educated, with over 60% of pet owners being born in the 1990s and 2000s, who prioritize the quality of life and personalized needs for their pets [2] - High-income, well-educated individuals tend to spend more on their pets, reflecting a trend of late marriage and childbearing, leading to increased emotional value and high-quality living for pets [2] - Online channels have become the primary sales avenue for pet food, although offline channels remain important for providing better shopping experiences and additional services [2] Product Trends - There is a shift towards high-quality and refined pet food, with trends such as "human-pet similarity" gaining traction, leading to increased demand for premium products like baked and fresh food [3] - The integration of technology in pet health management is on the rise, with over 70% of pet hospitals in first-tier cities adopting AI-assisted diagnostic tools [3] - The aging population and emerging markets are creating new growth opportunities, as more elderly individuals view pets as family members, leading to diverse consumption needs, particularly in food, health, and smart devices [3]

一只宠物猫患普通肠胃炎被误诊为猫瘟，账单从500元飙升至3000元；同一只患胰腺炎的狗，在不同医 院诊疗费相差近万元。 近年来，国内宠物经济发展迅猛。数据显示，2024年城镇宠物猫犬数量突破1.2亿只，相关的宠物经济 市场规模突破3000亿元。然而，宠物行业蓬勃发展的同时，也面临着一些问题。在城镇过亿只宠物背 后，看病贵、收费乱、理赔难成为九千万宠物主的共同痛点。 而这一问题，不仅仅困扰着宠物主，同样也影响了行业的健康有序发展。 南方财经全媒体记者 孙诗卉 实习生 关晶月 上海报道 更深层的矛盾在保险端爆发。蚂蚁保宠物险运营负责人张艺琦透露，因诊疗不规范及用户欺诈导致的额 外赔付成本占比超20%，推高整体赔付率，使其成为财产险赔付率最高的产品之一。"部分保司仍处于 亏损状态"，一方面，医院过度诊疗、用户篡改病历套费等乱象共生，保司不得不设置单次赔付上限以 控制亏损；另一方面，宠物险是逆选择的高发区，"有病才去买"是普遍现象，而宠物健康信息不透明， 也不像人类会进行定期体检，进一步推高宠物险赔付风险。 三方看似对立，实则被同一根锁链捆绑。宠物主为"安全感"多付保费，医院为生存压榨单客价值，保司 为降低被欺诈成本 ...

Group 1: Swine Industry - The swine industry is expected to maintain growth in hog output until at least September 2025, but overall hog prices are projected to remain under pressure, leading to a potential decline in profitability for the industry [1] - The number of breeding sows has started to decline since December 2024, with a slight increase in February 2025, and a 1.03% decrease in April 2025 compared to the peak in 2024, indicating a low overall capacity reduction in the industry [1] - The price of piglets has begun to decline since May 2025, which may prompt breeding farms to actively cull sows, leading to an expected simultaneous drop in hog and piglet prices in the second half of the year [1] Group 2: Feed Industry - China's feed production reached 10.3 million tons from January to April 2025, a year-on-year increase of 11%, driven by the recovery in hog stocks, increased aquaculture, and stable poultry stocks [2] - Vietnam's animal feed production also saw growth, with a total output of 4.72 million tons (up 7.69% year-on-year) and aquaculture feed production of 2.84 million tons (up 8.37% year-on-year), indicating a robust demand for feed [2] - The growth in livestock and aquaculture stocks, along with increased feed penetration rates, suggests that Chinese feed companies are likely to experience good growth opportunities abroad [2] Group 3: Pet Industry - The export of pet food from China has been growing, with a total export volume of 110,200 tons from January to April 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 16%, and an export value of 3.22 billion yuan, up 6% [3] - Domestic consumption of pet food remains strong, with online sales of cat and dog food reaching 9.05 billion yuan from January to April 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 17% [3] - The chain rate of pet hospitals in China is still relatively low compared to developed countries, indicating potential for improvement in this area [3]

Core Insights - The pet industry is undergoing significant transformation driven by the "adopt, don't shop" philosophy and increasing demand for purebred pets, reflecting diverse consumer attitudes towards pet ownership [1] - The traditional image of "pet dealers" is evolving into professional "pet breeders," yet issues like "weekend pets" and backyard breeding persist, highlighting a conflict between commercial interests and ethical considerations [1] Group 1: Industry Challenges - The phenomenon of "weekend pets" involves unregulated sellers offering sick animals, creating a risk for consumers and damaging the industry's reputation [2][5] - Price wars among breeders are leading to a decline in quality and service standards, as some breeders resort to undercutting prices to survive in a competitive market [5][9] - The emergence of small pets like snakes and lizards is impacting the sales of traditional pets, causing a cooling effect on their prices [6] Group 2: Ethical Considerations - The lack of respect for life and excessive profit-seeking among some breeders contribute to the proliferation of "weekend pets," necessitating stricter controls at the breeding source [9][10] - Responsible breeders emphasize the importance of using purebred stock and maintaining a healthy breeding environment to ensure the well-being of the animals [10][11] - There is a call for consumers to be more informed and cautious when purchasing pets, encouraging them to verify breeders' credentials and the health of the animals [11]

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·商贸零售 商贸零售行业跟踪周报 618 节奏拉长规则简化，国货美妆高质量增 长 证券分析师 吴劲草 执业证书：S0600520090006 wujc@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 石旖瑄 执业证书：S0600522040001 shiyx@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 张家璇 执业证书：S0600520120002 zhangjx@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 阳靖 执业证书：S0600523020005 yangjing@dwzq.com.cn 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [投资要点 Table_Summary] 2025 年 06 月 23 日 证券分析师 郗越 执业证书：S0600524080008 xiy@dwzq.com.cn 研究助理 王琳婧 执业证书：S0600123070017 wanglj@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -9% -1% 7% 15% 23% 31% 39% 47% 55% 63% 2024/6/24 2024/10/22 2025/2/19 2025/6/19 商贸零售 沪深300 相关研究 《酒店集团业绩显著复苏， ...

重申持续推荐宠物和生猪板块 20250622 摘要 发改委和农业农村部出台政策，旨在通过去产能提升猪价，以活跃消费 并引导 CPI 恢复，类似于 2015-2016 年环保政策对生猪行业产能的约 束，但与此前非洲猪瘟后的保护性政策有所不同。 当前生猪板块估值较低，建议关注低成本、低负债率、出栏增速和成长 性高的企业，如牧原股份、温氏股份等一线标的，以及神农集团、巨星 农牧等二线标的。 2025 年宠物食品市场品牌格局中，国产品牌占比提升，鲜朗、麦富迪 等领先，弗列加特增速显著。外资品牌如皇家、天然百利、渴望、艾肯 拿仍占据重要地位。 宠物食品市场高端产品线快速增长，如烘焙风干粮等，其中弗列加特表 现突出。消费者更关注精准喂养功能，推动国产品牌以更高性价比竞争 外资品牌。 京东数据显示，皇家和麦富迪在猫粮和狗粮市场占据领先地位，同时网 易严选、渴望、爱肯拿、弗列加特等品牌也表现出色。中高端市场逐渐 向超高端领域发展，国产品牌竞争力增强。 Q&A 今年下半年生猪板块的基本面和政策拐点有哪些变化？ 今年下半年，生猪板块处于基本面拐点和政策拐点的阶段。从基本面来看，今 年的出栏规模增速预期以及二次育肥压栏对市场的压力 ...

证券研究报告 2025 年 06 月 23 日 | 市场数据 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | 收盘 | 涨跌% | | 上证指数 | 3359.90 | -0.07 | | 深证成指 | 10005.03 | -0.47 | | 创业板指 | 2009.89 | -0.83 | | 科创 50 | 957.87 | -0.53 | | 北证 50 | 1347.46 | -1.34 | | 沪深 300 | 3846.64 | 0.09 | A 股市场概览 | 类别 | 总市值 | 流通市 | 市盈率 | 市净率 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | (亿元) | 值(亿元) | PE | PB | | 上证指数 | 653138 | 506006 | 12.03 | 1.25 | | 深证成指 | 220912 | 180485 | 19.58 | 2.07 | | 创业板指 | 56764 | 44868 | 26.38 | 3.68 | | 科创 50 | 33281 | 21936 | 52.00 | 4.00 | | 北证 ...

中信证券：中报季的应对思路和准备 二是港股近期偏弱的原因是什么？后续是否还有机会？我们认为港元流动性收紧预期、配股以及减持的增加将 阶段性制约港股贝塔，但经历行业性动量的修正后，阿尔法机会在未来两个月将会更为凸显，尤其是在电车、 创新药和新消费领域。 三是国内价格信号相对偏弱，外资现在对中国资产的态度如何？我们认为今年迄今外资对中国资产最大的态度 变化在于关注度、耐心和长期认可度，但是短期受制于一系列因素，实际的资金流入不明显，趋势性回流需要 继续等待。 四是微盘股的下跌是否会引发系统性波动？我们认为概率很小，有了去年初的经验，不少量化产品已提前做了 风控准备，但在高估值、高拥挤度和弱基本面环境下，中报季还会继续下修估值。 五是中报季潜在的外部风险是什么？我们认为特朗普用"232调查"来替代行政令推动行业性关税落地，以及减 税法案落地后资金阶段性回流美元资产可能会对非美市场造成不利影响。 中信建投：港股调整拖累，A股赛道轮动 前期表现强势的港股新消费和创新药板块，近期出现较明显调整，带动A股相关板块也出现较大波动，目前港 股流动性和风险偏好均受到冲击，可能仍将持续一段时间。内部基本面延续内需偏弱+结构性景气的 ...

农林牧渔 行 业 及 产 业 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证券分析师 盛瀚 A0230522080006 shenghan@swsresearch.com 研究支持 朱珺逸 A0230521080004 zhujy@swsresearch.com 胡静航 A0230524090002 hujh@swsresearch.com 联系人 朱珺逸 (8621)23297818× zhujy@swsresearch.com 2025 年 06 月 22 日 关注宠物食品 618 销售表现，降重出栏延 续猪价偏强震荡 看好 —— 农林牧渔周观点（2025.6.16-2025.6.22） 本期投资提示： 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 ⚫ 本周申万农林牧渔指数下跌 3.1%，沪深 300 下跌 0.5%。个股涨幅前五名：邦基科技（24.7%）、晨光生物 （13.4%）、ST 天山（4.2%）、ST 景谷（3.8%）、中牧股份（2.6%），跌幅前五名：安德利（-18.7%）、中宠股 份（-13.4%）、晓鸣股份（-11.3%）、辉隆股份（-10.7%）、佩蒂股份（-10.0%）。投资分析意见：猪价预 ...