日美部长级磋商后，日本经济财政再生相赤泽亮正回答记者提问（6月6日，华盛顿） 在日美关税磋商中，日本向美国提出了应对中国的一揽子方案。但与此同时，中美两国表现 出接近的姿态，这可能使日本在美国眼中的优先级下降。日本表示"面向达成协议，讨论进一 步深入"，但同时表示：还未找到一致点…… 日美两国政府正在不断快速推进关税谈判。日本经济财政再生相赤泽亮正于美国当地时间6月 6日下午在华盛顿出席第五次部长级磋商。日美最近已连续三周进行高频率谈判。赤泽亮对记 者团表示："以达成协议为目标的讨论进一步取得进展"，但同时也表示"尚未找到一致点"。 考虑到6月中旬的首脑会谈，正在加紧进行协调。 日本首相石破茂6月7日对记者团的提问回答称："据我所知，双方围绕国家利益展开了全力以 赴的认真讨论"。 磋商结束后的6日晚（日本时间7日），赤泽亮正出现在日本驻美大使馆，做出揉眼动作，显 露出疲惫的神情。谈判团的一名成员透露："连续出差让身体有些吃不消了"，"虽然很想休 息，但现在并不是休息的时候"。 关于第五轮谈判的结果，赤泽亮正表示"面向达成协议，讨论进一步深入"，避免提及具体内 容。但同时表示："我们还未找到一致点" 能否进一步 ...

Group 1: Banking and Finance - In Q1 2025, the total RMB loans increased by 9.78 trillion yuan, with a total balance of 265.41 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.4% [1] - The balance of RMB real estate loans reached 53.54 trillion yuan, with a slight year-on-year increase of 0.04% and a quarterly increase of 619.7 billion yuan [1] - The consumer finance sector has seen a surge in bad asset transfers, with 103 announcements made by 15 licensed consumer finance companies by May 29, 2025, indicating a significant market activity [2] Group 2: Manufacturing and Industry - China's shipbuilding industry continues to show strong resilience, with new orders in the first four months of 2025 maintaining the largest global market share [3] - The automotive sector reported an import and export total of 23.09 billion USD in April 2025, with exports increasing by 6.9% month-on-month [3] Group 3: Agriculture and Livestock - Major pig farming companies have received notifications to suspend the expansion of breeding sows and control the weight of pigs for slaughter, indicating regulatory measures to stabilize prices [4] Group 4: Technology and Innovation - The first fully automated testing system for medical electronic instruments based on NQI technology has passed inspection, marking a significant advancement in China's medical instrument industry [5] Group 5: Corporate Actions - Zhejiang Medicine plans to use up to 1 billion yuan of idle funds for entrusted wealth management, with a maximum investment period of 12 months [10] - All-in-one subsidiary Jinbo Hydrogen Energy of Quanxin Co. has received a supplier designation notice, indicating a strategic move in the hydrogen energy sector [11]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing US-Japan tariff negotiations are critical, with Japan pushing for the complete removal of tariffs while the US remains resistant. The recent phone call between Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and President Trump has introduced new dynamics into the discussions, particularly regarding investment and economic security [1][2]. Group 1: Tariff Negotiations - Japan has consistently requested the full cancellation of tariffs on automobiles, steel, and aluminum, but the US has not agreed to this demand [1]. - The third round of tariff negotiations, held on May 23, continued the previous discussions' tone, with Japanese Economic Revitalization Minister Akira Amari stating that the exchanges were more candid and in-depth than before [1][2]. - A new round of negotiations is scheduled for May 30 in Washington, indicating ongoing efforts to reach an agreement [1]. Group 2: Strategic Discussions - The phone call between Ishiba and Trump covered several key topics, including plans for a face-to-face meeting during the G7 summit, economic security-related tariff negotiations, and potential Japanese procurement of US fighter jets [2]. - Japan is considering establishing a "Japan-US Shipbuilding Fund" to revitalize its shipbuilding industry, which could enhance cooperation in sectors deemed critical to national security by the US [2]. Group 3: Economic Implications - Trump's recent Middle East trip resulted in approximately $2 trillion in investment agreements, which he communicated to Ishiba, aiming to encourage Japan to increase its investments in the US [2]. - Japan has already invested significantly in US manufacturing, but further investments are seen as necessary under Trump's "revitalize American manufacturing" agenda [2]. Group 4: Broader Trade Context - The situation with the EU serves as a cautionary tale for Japan, as delays in trade negotiations have led to threats of increased tariffs from the US [3]. - The outcome of the G7 summit, particularly regarding breakthroughs in automotive and steel tariffs, could have substantial implications for related industries in Japan [3].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve may consider interest rate cuts in the second half of 2025 if tariffs remain around 10% [1] - The ongoing trade tensions have created a dilemma for the Federal Reserve, balancing between persistent inflation data and market volatility caused by tariffs [3] - The U.S. market experienced a significant downturn on May 21, with a sharp rise in bond yields, a drop in stock prices, and the dollar index falling below 100 [4] Group 2 - The long-standing debt issues have been exacerbated by the trade tensions, leading to increased scrutiny on the Federal Reserve's role in stabilizing the market [5] - The weak auction of 20-year U.S. Treasury bonds on May 22 resulted in a "triple whammy" effect on stocks, bonds, and currencies, with the S&P 500 index dropping nearly 1.6% [7] - The auction's final yield of 5.047% marked a significant increase from previous rates, indicating a lack of demand and raising concerns about the U.S. fiscal situation [8] Group 3 - The recent surge in U.S. Treasury yields has raised fears among investors regarding the government's fiscal health and monetary policy [8] - The ongoing trade war has revealed underlying issues in the U.S. economy, with tariff revenues not keeping pace with rising national debt [9] - The proposed tax cuts are expected to further pressure the U.S. debt situation, with potential implications for the bond market [10] Group 4 - The anticipated tax legislation is projected to reduce household tax burdens significantly, which could impact the fiscal deficit and bond market reactions [11] - The recent rebound in U.S. stocks has raised questions about the sustainability of this rally amid ongoing geopolitical risks and rising federal spending [12] - Investors are advised to be cautious with dollar assets as the market navigates through the current volatility, with a potential shift towards safe-haven assets like gold and yen [13][14]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The conference call discusses macroeconomic trends and monetary policies affecting various regions, particularly focusing on the Euro area, United States, and Asia Pacific. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **U.S. Economic Policy and Deficits** - The House passed a reconciliation bill proposing $3.8 trillion in new deficits over the next 10 years, which is the lower end of earlier estimates that reached up to $15 trillion [4][15][16] - The Senate's approval is pending, and the process may extend until after August, potentially requiring temporary debt-limit relief [18][19] 2. **Inflation and Monetary Policy in the Euro Area** - Flash inflation data for May is expected to show stable or lower total inflation across most Euro area countries, with a focus on the impact of new tariff threats [5][40] - The European Central Bank (ECB) is anticipated to implement a 25 basis point rate cut in June, with discussions ongoing about future cuts [39][44] 3. **Consumer Confidence and Spending Trends** - Consumer confidence in the U.S. remains weak, driven by fears of price increases and potential layoffs, despite healthy consumer spending trends [20][23][31] - April consumer spending is expected to show a nominal increase of 0.3%, with real expenditures rising by 0.2% due to low inflation [33][34] 4. **Asia Pacific Economic Outlook** - The Bank of Korea (BoK) is expected to cut its policy rate by 25 basis points amid weak economic growth [6][39] - India's GDP growth is projected to have picked up in Q1, driven by government spending and investment [6][39] 5. **Tariff Impacts and Trade Dynamics** - President Trump's threats of new tariffs against the EU and potential tariffs on iPhones have created uncertainty that could negatively impact global growth [3][5] - The Euro area is experiencing disinflation amidst these tariff threats, with consumer confidence showing signs of decline in France [38][41] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Sector-Specific Insights** - The manufacturing sector in the Euro area is showing signs of improvement, while the services sector is lagging, indicating a divergence in economic recovery [38][45] - The U.S. durable goods orders are expected to show a significant drop in April, particularly in the aircraft sector, which had previously seen strong orders [29][30] 2. **Geopolitical Considerations** - The geopolitical landscape, particularly regarding U.S.-China trade relations, continues to influence economic sentiment and market expectations [19][39] - Brazil's economic activity suggests strong GDP expansion in Q1, but underlying components may indicate potential weaknesses ahead [8][13] 3. **Monetary Growth Trends** - M3 money supply growth in the Euro area has been improving, driven by higher loan demand in the private sector, although there are concerns about banks' external asset sales [53][54] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the macroeconomic trends, monetary policies, and sector-specific insights that could influence investment decisions.

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market has been on an upward trend since April 9, but showed signs of fatigue by the end of the month, with the Hang Seng Index dropping by 1.35% [1] - The U.S. is pushing for trade agreements with the EU and Japan, with Trump suggesting a 50% tariff on EU goods starting June 1, later postponed to July 9 to allow for further negotiations [1][2] - Japan's shipbuilding industry is facing a downturn, with new ship orders expected to decline significantly in 2024, making negotiations with the U.S. challenging [2] Industry Insights - The Chinese shipbuilding industry remains dominant, with China Shipbuilding Industry Group showing strong order volumes and profitability, leading to a stock price increase of over 6% [2] - Trump's tariffs on non-U.S. manufactured electronics, including a 25% tariff on Apple and Samsung, are expected to negatively impact the consumer electronics sector [2] - The automotive sector is experiencing intense price competition, particularly with BYD's aggressive discounting strategy, raising concerns about profit margins across the industry [3] Energy Sector Developments - The U.S. plans to initiate the construction of 10 large nuclear power plants by 2030, aiming to quadruple nuclear capacity by 2050, which has positively impacted related stocks in Hong Kong [4] - Domestic coal prices have decreased, benefiting thermal power companies, with major players like Datang Power and Huadian International seeing stock price increases of nearly 3% [4] Aviation Industry Performance - Major airlines in China reported increased passenger turnover and capacity in April, with the Civil Aviation Administration noting significant year-on-year growth in transport metrics [6] - The decline in international oil prices is improving the cost structure for airlines, enhancing profit margins [6][7] Company-Specific Highlights - China Resources Power reported a 7.9% increase in electricity sales in April 2025, with significant growth in renewable energy sales, although its renewable energy core profit saw a slight decline [9] - The company aims to add 10 GW of wind and solar capacity by 2025, with ongoing projects expected to contribute to future growth [10]

FICC日报 | 2025-05-23 特朗普税收法案通过众议院，美国财政赤字担忧加剧 市场分析 短期关注经济事实验证。5月7日，"一行一局一会"出台一揽子金融政策提振经济，4月我国出口同比增长8.1%，进 口同比下降0.2%，整体略超预期，但分国别或区域来看，4月出口当月同比中，对美国-21%（前值为9.1%，下同）， 对东盟20.8%（11.6%）；分产品来看，劳动密集型产品出口受冲击明显，当月同比-1.7%（9.1%）。5月19日，中国 央行表示将抓好一揽子货币金融政策措施的落实和传导。5月20日，中国央行将一年期和五年期贷款市场报价利率 (LPR)分别从3.1%与3.6%下调至3%和3.5%。中国央行5月23日将开展5000亿元MLF操作。5月9日—12日何立峰副总 理于瑞士访问期间与美方举行会谈，中美日内瓦经贸会谈取得实质进展，双方承诺暂停部分加征关税并建立协商 机制。重点关注原油，集运指数，黄金等对该事件敏感的商品。5月15日商务部例行发布会回应中方对美关税反制 措施调整，称因美方撤销对华加征关税而相应调整，并表明对中美经贸磋商机制持开放态度，双方将依日内瓦会 谈共识保持沟通。此外中方再次敦促美方 ...

Group 1 - The 21st China (Shenzhen) International Cultural Industries Fair will be held from May 22 to 26, with a significant "policy package" to support six key areas for high-quality cultural industry development [2] - The European Union plans to impose handling fees on small packages entering the EU, with China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs advocating for a fair and transparent business environment for Chinese enterprises [2] - China and the ten ASEAN countries have completed negotiations for the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0, adding nine new chapters including digital economy and green economy [2] Group 2 - International gold prices rebounded on May 21, with domestic gold jewelry prices surpassing 1,000 yuan per gram, with notable increases from major retailers [3] - Several banks, including Ping An Bank and CITIC Bank, have lowered deposit rates, particularly for medium- and long-term deposits, with some banks suspending five-year term deposits [3] - A surge in A-share buyback and increase plans has been observed, with 394 companies announcing such plans since the second quarter of 2025, a rise of over 60% compared to the first quarter [3] Group 3 - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index closed up 0.62%, with BYD shares rising over 4% to a new historical high, and southbound funds net buying exceeding 1.4 billion HKD [4] - UBS noted a growing international interest in Chinese assets, highlighting the strategic importance of the Chinese stock market for global investors seeking excess returns [4] Group 4 - Baidu reported Q1 revenue of 32.452 billion yuan, a 3% year-on-year increase, with a notable 42% growth in Baidu Smart Cloud [5] - Xpeng Motors achieved Q1 revenue of 15.81 billion yuan, a 141.5% year-on-year increase, with a projected delivery volume of 102,000 to 108,000 units in Q2 [5] - Weibo's Q1 revenue remained stable at 396.9 million USD, with a 12% year-on-year increase in adjusted net profit [5] Group 5 - The stock price for Naxin Microelectronics was set at 163.15 yuan per share, with a subscription rate of 1.29 times from institutional investors [6] - The U.S. stock market saw declines across major indices, with significant drops in Chinese concept stocks such as iQIYI and Baidu [6]

金十数据5月16日讯，日本已发出信号，准备与美国总统唐特朗普在贸易关税问题上达成更好的协议， 而不是冒着国内政治反弹的风险达成协议。日本渴望避免与华盛顿的关系出现任何恶化，而日本首相石 破茂最初把先于其他国家进入美国谈判桌作为优先事项。但官员和分析师表示，商界领袖和石破茂所在 的自民党成员要求他拒绝任何危及汽车业或威胁国内农民的协议，这迫使他重新思考。"尽管日本非常 渴望成为第一个与华盛顿就关税问题展开谈判的国家，但 这种紧迫感现在已经转变，重点是确保日本 得到一份好协议，"一名日本官员表示。 官员们表示，目前不太可能在日本参议院选举前达成协议。日 本参议院选举将于7月底举行，预计对极不受欢迎的石破茂政府来说，这将是一大考验。 （英国金融时 报） 日本或无法在7月底之前与美国达成贸易协议 ...

FICC日报 | 2025-05-16 中美经贸磋商提速，全球贸易政策博弈持续 市场分析 短期关注经济事实验证。5月7日，"一行一局一会"出台一揽子金融政策提振经济，央行推出三大类共十项货币政 策措施，包括降准0.5个百分点，降低政策利率0.1个百分点，创设新的政策工具等；金融监管总局将推出八项增量 政策，涉房地产金融、险资入市、稳外贸等；证监会表示将"持续稳定和活跃资本市场"，稳步推进市场对外开放。 值得注意的是，4月我国出口同比增长8.1%，进口同比下降0.2%，整体略超预期，但分国别或区域来看，4月出口 当月同比中，对美国-21%（前值为9.1%，下同），对东盟20.8%（11.6%）；分产品来看，劳动密集型产品出口受冲 击明显，当月同比-1.7%（9.1%）。5月14日央行发布 2025 年前四个月社会融资规模增量数据，显示金融对实体经 济支持力度加大。5月9日—12日何立峰副总理于瑞士访问期间与美方举行会谈，中美日内瓦经贸会谈取得实质进 展，双方承诺暂停部分加征关税并建立协商机制。国务院关税税则委发布公告：自2025年5月14日12时01分起，对 美进口商品加征关税税率由34%降至10%，暂停24% ...