1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the US stock market is "Underperform" and maintained [4] - The investment rating for the US dollar bond market is "Underperform" [1] 2. Core Views - The passage of the "Big Beautiful Act" will increase the US medium - and long - term fiscal pressure. The act, a tax reform bill, includes reducing corporate taxes, cutting social welfare, canceling clean energy subsidies, and increasing the national debt scale. It may further expand the US fiscal pressure [1] - The June non - farm payroll data shows resilience, but structural issues need attention. The labor market remains resilient overall, but the increase in government employment is unsustainable, and the resilience of the non - farm data is still to be observed, with a risk of weakening in the future [2] - The derivatives market maintains the expectation of two interest rate cuts in September and December. The strong non - farm payroll data has increased the possibility of the Fed continuing to wait and see and reduced the probability of an interest rate cut this month [2] - The US Treasury bond interest rate first decreased and then increased, and the term spread narrowed slightly. It is recommended that investors mainly allocate short - and medium - term US Treasury bonds, preferably 2 - 5 - year varieties, and be cautious about allocating long - duration bonds [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 US Treasury Bond Benchmark Interest Rate - The US Treasury bond interest rate curve first decreased and then increased in the past two weeks. The 1 - year/2 - year/3 - year/5 - year/10 - year/20 - year/30 - year US Treasury bond interest rates changed by - 3/-6/-5/-4/-3/-2/-2bp respectively. The 10Y and 2Y yields were 4.35% and 3.88% respectively, and the 10Y - 2Y spread narrowed slightly to 47bp [3] 3.2 US Macroeconomic and Liquidity - June non - farm employment increased by 147,000, far exceeding market expectations. Private employment decreased by 33,000, the first decline since March 2023. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%, lower than expected. The non - farm data for April and May was revised up by 16,000 [2] - The derivatives market expects two interest rate cuts in September and December. The probability of the federal funds rate remaining unchanged in July is 95%, the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 5%, the probability of a cut in September is 73%, and the probability of a total 50 - bp cut by December is 90% [2] 3.3 Exchange Rate - No specific analysis content is provided in the given text, only chart information about non - US currency trends, Sino - US sovereign bond spreads, etc. 3.4 Overseas US Dollar Bonds - The US Treasury bond yield increased in the past week, mainly affected by the strong June non - farm payroll data. The passage of the "Big Beautiful Act" is expected to add $3.4 trillion in deficits to the US in the next decade, which may put upward pressure on the medium - and long - term US Treasury bond yields [3] 3.5 Chinese - Issued US Dollar Bonds - In the past two weeks, the three major international rating agencies took 7 rating actions on Chinese - issued US dollar bond issuers, including 2 upgrades, 1 downgrade, 3 initial ratings, and 1 rating withdrawal [93] 3.6 Rating Actions - In the past two weeks, there were 7 rating actions on Chinese - issued US dollar bond issuers by three major international rating agencies. For example, on July 6, 2025, Fitch gave an initial rating of BBB - to Minsheng Commercial Bank International Holdings Co., Ltd.; on June 26, 2025, Fitch downgraded Longfor Group Holdings Limited from BB to BB - [93][94]

Group 1: Work Hours and Consumer Behavior - Since 2018, China's average weekly working hours have increased to 48.3 hours, which is 21 minutes more per day compared to 2018[3] - The time residents spend on purchasing goods and services has decreased from 80 minutes per day to 43 minutes per day[3] - The most significant "involution" is observed in the manufacturing and productive service sectors, while real estate and life service industries have seen a reduction in working hours[3][4] Group 2: Employment Trends Among Age Groups - The most pronounced "involution" trend is among young people, with an average increase of over 4 hours in weekly working hours over the past five years[4] - For the age group 25-34, weekly working hours increased from 46.7 hours in 2018 to 50.8 hours in 2023[4] - In contrast, individuals aged 55 and above have seen a decrease in working hours by 2.3 hours during the same period[4] Group 3: Policy Recommendations and Economic Rebalancing - Current policies encourage flexible work arrangements and paid leave to address "involution," but these measures primarily target symptoms rather than root causes[5] - The imbalance in employment distribution between manufacturing and service sectors is identified as a core issue, with tariffs potentially facilitating a shift from manufacturing to services[5] - The life service sector has the capacity to absorb labor from the manufacturing sector, as it has seen a 7 percentage point increase in employment share over the past two decades[5][6] Group 4: Service Sector Growth and Consumer Demand - The life service sector's wage growth (18.1%) has outpaced that of manufacturing (10.7%) and productive services (12.4%), indicating a labor shortage in the service sector[6] - There is a significant gap of approximately 1.5 trillion yuan in service employment compared to value-added, suggesting a need for more jobs in this sector[6] - As urbanization increases and GDP per capita rises, service consumption is expected to grow, with a projected annual increase of 0.6% in service consumption share as urbanization reaches 70%[6][7]

Group 1 - The phenomenon of "involution" is most pronounced among young people, with average weekly working hours increasing by over 4 hours in the past five years. The average weekly working hours for employees aged 25-34 rose from 46.7 hours in 2018 to 50.8 hours in 2023 [3][28] - The average daily working time in China increased by 21 minutes from 2018 to 2023, reaching 48.3 hours per week, while the time spent on purchasing goods and services dropped from 80 minutes per day to 43 minutes per day [2][9] - The "involution" trend is particularly evident in the manufacturing and productive service sectors, while the real estate and life service sectors have seen a decrease in working hours [2][21] Group 2 - Current policies to combat "involution" focus on encouraging flexible work arrangements and paid leave, but these measures primarily address symptoms rather than the root causes of prolonged working hours [4][35] - The root cause of "involution" is the uneven distribution of employment across industries, with excessive employment in manufacturing leading to "involution" and insufficient employment in the service sector [4][48] - There is a significant employment gap in the life service sector, with a potential to absorb more jobs, as the wage growth in this sector (18.1%) outpaces that of manufacturing (10.7%) [5][61] Group 3 - The long-term direction for combating "involution" involves aligning supply structures with changing demand structures, particularly as consumer demand trends towards services [6][85] - Global experiences indicate that as GDP per capita reaches between $10,000 and $30,000 and urbanization rates hit 70%, the proportion of service consumption in total consumption increases by approximately 0.6% annually [6][86] - The aging population is expected to drive service consumption, with each 1% increase in the aging rate correlating with a 1.3% increase in service consumption share [6][93]

Group 1 - A new company named Urumqi Xiangyuan Green Logistics Technology Co., Ltd. has been established with a registered capital of 3 million yuan [1] - The legal representative of the company is Deng Yongfei, and its business scope includes leasing services and road freight transportation [1] - The company is wholly owned by Wuhan Tianyuan (301127) through indirect shareholding [1]

Group 1 - The company has extended the principal repayment of the bond "18 渤金 01" to June 20, 2026, with an interest rate of 4% during the extension period [1][2][3] - The original coupon rate for the first three years was 7%, and the interest will be paid annually [2][3] - The bond interest payment will be made to all registered bondholders as of June 19, 2025, through the designated bank account of China Securities Depository and Clearing Corporation [3][4] Group 2 - The company is responsible for ensuring that the interest payment funds are transferred to the designated bank account on time; failure to do so will result in the company handling the payment process independently [4] - Individual bondholders are subject to a 20% personal income tax on the interest earned from the bond, with tax withholding managed by the payment network [5] - Foreign institutional investors are temporarily exempt from corporate income tax and value-added tax on bond interest income until December 31, 2025, under specific conditions [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the Guangfa CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Non-Bank ETF (513750.SH) [1] Core Insights - The Guangfa CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Non-Bank ETF focuses heavily on the insurance sector, with a weight of 70% in the index, providing a unique asset allocation opportunity in the market [6][14] - The valuation levels of the index are low, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 8.62 and a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.99, indicating a significant safety margin and potential for appreciation [6][32][35] - The index shows strong profitability with a dividend yield of 3.18%, reflecting robust earnings capacity and long-term investment value [6][45] - The insurance industry is experiencing high-quality development driven by favorable policies, with total premium income expected to grow from CNY 2.4 trillion in 2015 to CNY 5.7 trillion by 2024, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.9% [53][54] - The report highlights the increasing concentration of leading securities firms, driven by regulatory pressures and mergers, enhancing their competitive edge [62][64] Summary by Sections 1. Investment Value Analysis of the Hong Kong Stock Connect Non-Bank Index - The index has a high concentration in the insurance sector, with a weight increase from 60.04% to 70.10% [14][22] - Valuation metrics indicate a favorable investment environment, with historical P/E and P/B ratios at the 21.50% and 45.00% percentiles, respectively [32][35] - The index's strong dividend yield and earnings per share (EPS) growth demonstrate its long-term investment potential [45][46] 2. Industry Fundamentals Analysis - The insurance sector is guided by policies aimed at high-quality development, focusing on risk prevention and product innovation [48][49] - The total premium income in the insurance industry is projected to grow significantly, with life insurance accounting for over 70% of the total [53][54] - Regulatory trends are encouraging mergers and acquisitions in the securities industry, leading to the emergence of "leading" securities firms [62][64] 3. Guangfa CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Non-Bank ETF Product Introduction - The ETF has shown strong liquidity, with an average daily trading volume of CNY 314 million, indicating high market interest [6][7] - The ETF's performance is notable, with a cumulative return of 22.1% and an annualized return of 49.2%, outperforming similar products [7][6]

Group 1: Investment Activities - Bepei Technology completed Pre-A round investment led by Shunwei Capital, raising nearly $10 million in total funding [1] - Shiok Burger announced Pre-A round financing led by AC Ventures, with existing shareholders increasing their stakes, achieving profitability after 12 months of growth [2] - Feixiong Lingxian completed nearly 100 million yuan in C round financing, providing comprehensive services in the frozen goods supply chain [3] - Wuxian Exploration secured 16 million yuan in angel round financing, focusing on innovative fruit tea products [4] - Maiba obtained 10 million yuan in angel round financing, offering a 24-hour self-service KTV model [5] - Renren Rental completed several hundred million yuan in D1 round financing, leveraging blockchain and AI technologies for a circular rental service platform [6] - Jason Entertainment received strategic investment from Hengdian Capital, focusing on IP copyright operations and content investment [7] Group 2: Corporate Developments - Ximalaya confirmed acquisition rumors by Tencent Music, maintaining brand independence and operational continuity post-acquisition [8] - Yingshi Technology debuted on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, with a first-day stock price increase of over 270%, achieving a market cap exceeding 70 billion yuan [9] Group 3: Market Trends - Nova Coffee partnered with Lawson convenience stores to enhance market penetration, launching promotional offers and coffee products [12] - The second-hand market is shifting towards trust-based competition, with the opening of "Super Zhuangzhuang," a multi-category second-hand store [13] - The smart glasses market is experiencing significant growth, with global shipments expected to reach 12.8 million units by 2025, and China's market projected to exceed 2.75 million units [13][14] - In the restaurant sector, consumer preferences are shifting towards higher-rated establishments, with a 15.4% increase in average dining orders and a notable rise in the share of high-quality dining options [15]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - The financial supply-side structural reform is fundamentally reshaping the industry's operational logic, driving institutions to focus on core business capabilities and risk pricing efficiency, while eliminating inefficient capacities through market mechanisms [4][6] - The report outlines the transformation space and risk status across various sub-industries under the supply-side structural reform, highlighting the challenges faced by smaller institutions and the advantages held by larger entities [4][6] Summary by Sections Banking Sector - The banking industry is experiencing intensified differentiation and a reconstruction of the credit system, with a shift from scale expansion to high-quality operations [4] - Major state-owned banks and quality joint-stock banks are strengthening their systemic positions, while regional small and medium banks face significant challenges [4][6] Insurance Sector - The insurance industry is returning to its core protection essence, with regulatory measures guiding companies to enhance risk pricing capabilities [4][6] - Short-term profitability is under pressure, particularly for companies reliant on interest spread models [4] Securities Sector - The securities industry is undergoing a new landscape shaped by strict regulations and increased concentration, with smaller firms struggling to survive due to rising operational costs [4][6] - Leading firms are building barriers in wealth management and capital intermediary services through mergers and acquisitions [4] Trust Sector - The trust industry is being reshaped by the end of regulatory arbitrage, with a significant decline in financing and channel business scales [6] - Smaller trust companies are facing profitability and capital challenges, while larger firms are leveraging their resources to build new profit points [6] Leasing Sector - The leasing industry is transitioning from "quasi-loan" expansion to deep industrial services, with regulatory constraints impacting companies reliant on government financing [6] - Companies with industrial backgrounds are forming stable cash flow barriers in specialized fields [6] AMC Sector - The Asset Management Company (AMC) sector is refocusing on its core business of non-performing asset acquisition and disposal, with resources concentrating on leading national AMCs [6] - Local AMCs are facing profitability and capital adequacy pressures due to regional resource limitations [6]

Group 1 - Tianjin is promoting the "technology-industry-finance" new cycle mechanism to enhance the depth and effectiveness of technology finance through improved organizational systems, credit services, insurance guarantees, and pilot equity investments [1] - As of 2023, Tianjin has established 61 technology-focused branches within its banking institutions, with a loan balance of 288.3 billion yuan to technology innovation enterprises, marking a 20% year-on-year increase, and 50% of these loans are credit loans [1] - The Tianjin insurance industry has provided insurance coverage of 486.49 billion yuan through technology insurance, with the "laboratory all-risk insurance" covering 1.14 million yuan for 46 laboratories [1] Group 2 - A new long-term mechanism for the "technology-industry-finance" cycle has been jointly issued by Tianjin financial regulatory authorities, expanding financial service institutions to include securities, funds, leasing, and factoring [2] - The work plan includes six key measures with 15 specific initiatives aimed at enhancing financial services for technology innovation, including strengthening top-level design, improving organizational structure, and optimizing financial support products [2] - The Tianjin financial regulatory bureau aims to guide financial institutions to increase support for technology innovation, focusing on the financial needs of technology innovation and enhancing the adaptability of financial services [2]

Group 1: Company Listings - Greenme is progressing with its listing in Hong Kong and will comply with relevant laws and regulations for information disclosure [1] - Chao Hong Ji plans to issue H-shares and apply for listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to enhance its global strategy and brand image [2] - Hubei Xiangjiang Electric Co., Ltd. has passed the listing hearing at the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with Guotai Junan Securities (Hong Kong) as the sole sponsor [3] Group 2: Corporate Changes - Unilever China has undergone a leadership change, with Roland Polaroid Hutabarat replacing Zhong Zhaomin as the legal representative and chairman [7] - GAC Aion has appointed He Xianqing as the new chairman, succeeding Feng Xingya [11] Group 3: Product and Market Developments - Starbucks China will reduce prices on several non-coffee products by an average of about 5 yuan, aiming to enhance its non-coffee beverage market [8] - Oriental Selection has announced the production of its first self-operated sanitary napkin, set to launch on June 16 [10] Group 4: Financing and Investments - Zhongke Wenge has completed a new round of strategic financing, which will be used for the development and marketing of its self-developed decision intelligence operating system [19] - "Rennren Rental" has completed a financing round of several hundred million yuan, which will accelerate the integration of AI technology and digital economy in the circular rental sector [21]