中信证券：出海可能是新的方向 A股继港股后也逐步转为增量市场，最重要的是不断寻找新的存在预期差且未来能够形成资金共识的板 块，半年报季后的出海可能是新的方向。从半年报预告来看，出海依旧是强劲的业绩超预期线索之一。从 过去几年的经验来看，出海对企业ROE和利润率的抬升作用明显，出海本身也是积极"反内卷"并提高利润 率的一种形式；从未来的趋势来看，一旦讲通全球收入敞口逻辑，会带来股票端配置的稳定性和估值溢 价，这是新兴市场跨入成熟市场的必经之路。 今年出海作为业绩最好的线索之一，却因为贸易战导致行情剧烈波动且一直呈现零散的自下而上驱动状 态，随着8月后贸易战预期逐步稳定、半年报季结束，出海可能会再次形成板块性行情。配置上，从当下 到半年报季结束，依然建议围绕恒科、有色、通信、创新药、军工和游戏轮动，当下更偏恒生科技。 国泰海通：科技主题仍是主线 6月以来主题交易热度持续回升，热点主题结构分化。海外云厂商业绩指引乐观叠加英伟达CEO黄仁勋来 华的积极表态，维持推升AI产业相关主题热度且有显著资金净流入，近期活跃的创新药主题再度走 强；"反内卷"政策催化密集，但市场强分歧下股价波动加剧，稳定币与跨境支付主题有所回调。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Non-Bank ETF (513750) has reached a record high in both scale and shares, indicating strong investor interest and market activity [1][2]. Group 1: Fund Performance - As of July 18, 2025, the Hong Kong Stock Connect Non-Bank ETF has seen a net value increase of 75.44% over the past year, ranking 59th out of 2917 index stock funds, placing it in the top 2.02% [2]. - The ETF has achieved a maximum monthly return of 31.47% since its inception, with the longest consecutive monthly gains being 4 months and a total increase of 38.25% during that period [2]. - The ETF has outperformed its benchmark with an annualized return of 21.19% over the last three months [2]. Group 2: Market Activity - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Non-Bank ETF reached a scale of 7.985 billion yuan, marking a 912.04% increase year-to-date, with the latest share count at 5.072 billion [1]. - The ETF experienced a turnover rate of 13.01% with a trading volume of 1.054 billion yuan, indicating active market participation [1]. - Over the past 13 days, the ETF has seen continuous net inflows, with a peak single-day inflow of 820 million yuan, totaling 3.096 billion yuan in net inflows [1]. Group 3: Index Composition - The CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Non-Bank Financial Theme Index (931024) includes up to 50 listed companies, with the top ten weighted stocks accounting for 77.92% of the index [3]. - The top three holdings—China Ping An, AIA Group, and Hong Kong Exchanges—each represent over 14% of the index [3]. - Recent regulatory policies in the insurance sector have been favorable, aimed at mitigating risks associated with interest rate spreads and enhancing the operational environment for insurance companies [3]. Group 4: Industry Outlook - Analysts remain optimistic about investment opportunities in the non-bank sector, driven by macroeconomic stability and liquidity release from monetary policy adjustments [4]. - New regulations in the securities industry are expected to boost revenue growth for brokerage firms, while long-term investment policies for insurance companies may improve valuation and returns [4]. - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Non-Bank ETF is the first and only ETF tracking the non-bank index, providing unique investment access without QDII quota restrictions [4].

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.69% to close at 3534.48 points, with a weekly high of 3536.01 points [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index increased by 2.04% to 10913.84 points, reaching a high of 10946.4 points [1] - The ChiNext Index saw a rise of 3.17%, closing at 2277.15 points, with a peak of 2296.91 points [1] - In the global market, the Nasdaq Composite Index increased by 1.51%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.07% and the S&P 500 rose by 0.59% [1] - In the Asia-Pacific region, the Hang Seng Index rose by 2.84% and the Nikkei 225 Index increased by 0.63% [1] New Stock Issuance - Two new stocks were issued last week: Shanda Electric Power (301609.SZ) and Jiyuan Group (603262.SH), both on July 14, 2025 [2] Margin Trading - The total margin trading balance in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 18964.13 billion yuan, with a financing balance of 18832.44 billion yuan and a securities lending balance of 131.68 billion yuan [3] - The margin trading balance increased by 265.22 billion yuan compared to the previous week [3] - The Shanghai market's margin trading balance was 9613.62 billion yuan, up by 143.67 billion yuan, while the Shenzhen market's balance was 9350.51 billion yuan, increasing by 121.55 billion yuan [3] - A total of 3442 stocks had margin buying, with 89 stocks exceeding 1 billion yuan in buying amount, led by Zhongji Xuchuang (88.2 billion yuan), Xinyi Sheng (80.46 billion yuan), and Dongfang Caifu (62.35 billion yuan) [3][4] Fund Issuance - Sixteen new funds were issued last week, including various types such as mixed funds, bond funds, and money market funds [5] Share Buybacks - Seventeen companies announced share buybacks last week, with the highest amounts being TCL (2.5 billion yuan), Hangyang Co. (60.36 million yuan), and Yanshan Technology (59.99 million yuan) [7] - The sectors with the highest buyback amounts were electronics, basic chemicals, and computers [7]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The conference call discusses the non-bank financial sector in China, focusing on the impact of Real World Assets (RWA) and the performance of various financial institutions, particularly insurance companies and securities firms. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **RWA Business Growth**: The RWA business is expected to become a significant growth point for non-bank institutions, with major Chinese securities firms actively pursuing virtual asset trading licenses and tokenized securities issuance, indicating a shift in valuation dynamics for these firms [2][1]. 2. **Incremental Capital Sources**: Large state-owned insurance companies will allocate 30% of their new premiums to A-shares starting in 2025, alongside the expansion of private equity stock investment funds, which will inject significant capital into the market in the second half of the year [3][1]. 3. **Current State of Non-Bank Sector**: The non-bank sector is currently in a low point but has substantial potential for reallocation, with many public funds under-allocated to this sector. Key firms like Ping An and Taikang are highlighted as being undervalued [4][1][5]. 4. **Equity Financing in Securities Firms**: Equity financing remains a case-by-case basis, with high participation from major shareholders. Policy changes are slightly easing restrictions on private placements, but the market impact is limited due to the high involvement of controlling shareholders [6][1]. 5. **Performance of Non-Bank Sector**: Over 60% of listed securities firms reported over 40% growth in performance for the first half of 2025, with some firms like Huaxi Securities and Guolian Minsheng showing exceptional growth rates [8][9]. 6. **RWA On-Chain Development**: The integration of RWA with blockchain technology is seen as a crucial catalyst for growth, with companies like China Taiping Asset Management collaborating to enhance asset tokenization and improve valuation potential [11][1]. 7. **Market Performance and Future Expectations**: The non-bank financial sector is expected to perform strongly, driven by RWA business developments and favorable market conditions, with a recommendation to focus on leading firms in the Hong Kong market [10][1]. 8. **Valuation of China Taiping**: China Taiping is currently undervalued, with a PEB ratio around 0.6 and a significant drop in the cost of liabilities, indicating potential for future growth [18][1]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **2DB Market Potential**: The 2DB market is projected to have significant growth potential, with compliance and asset transparency being key focus areas [12][1]. 2. **The Pack's Initial Strategy**: The Pack's investment strategy includes various funds and has established partnerships with significant financial institutions, indicating a robust ecosystem for RWA issuance and distribution [13][1]. 3. **Hong Kong Virtual Asset Market**: Hong Kong is actively developing its virtual asset market, with stablecoins playing a crucial role in enhancing market infrastructure [14][1]. 4. **Global Tokenization Trends**: The global market for tokenization of non-liquid assets is expected to reach $16 trillion by 2030, with Blackrock's BITO serving as a case study for successful implementation [15][1]. 5. **Insurance Product Performance**: Dividend insurance products are performing well, positively impacting the reduction of rigid liability costs for insurance companies [20][1]. 6. **Recommendations for Insurance Stocks**: The recommended order for insurance stocks includes Xinhua Insurance and China Life, with a focus on companies with strong ties to virtual assets [22][1]. 7. **Future Logic for Non-Bank Sector Growth**: The future growth of the non-bank sector is expected to be driven by improvements in asset quality and increased allocations to equities, particularly from insurance premiums [23][1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the text. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Convertible Bond Index reached a new high this week, with a cumulative increase of 9.48% since the beginning of the year. The valuation of convertible bonds has entered a high - level range and is shifting from following the underlying stock to an active upward - adjustment phase. It is recommended to focus on convertible bonds with low option valuations and those with elastic advantages in structure, such as those with a par value between 80 - 100 yuan [1][10]. - During the interim report period, attention should be paid to industries with improving performance expectations. It is advisable to focus on convertible bonds of industries with stable demand and high performance certainty, as well as those with performance recovery expectations under the "anti - involution" trend, while avoiding some high - price and high - premium targets that deviate from fundamentals [2][19]. - Considering the impact of refinancing policies, there is certain support on the demand side under the shrinking supply of convertible bonds. With the low long - term yield of pure bonds, the opportunity cost of convertible bonds is relatively low. However, the current overall valuation of convertible bonds is at a relatively high level, so be vigilant against callback risks. In terms of clauses, continue to focus on the game space of downward revisions, beware of forced redemption risks, and appropriately pay attention to short - term game opportunities of near - maturity convertible bonds [23]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Convertible Bond Weekly Special and Outlook 3.1.1. How to View the New High of Convertible Bonds - As of Friday, the Convertible Bond Index continued to rise, reaching a new high in recent years. The valuation of convertible bonds has entered a high - level range, and the valuation is gradually shifting from following the underlying stock to an active upward - adjustment phase. Analogy to early 2022 suggests a potential overheating risk after the active upward adjustment of convertible bond valuations. It is recommended to focus on individual convertible bonds with relatively low option valuations [1][10]. - In terms of convertible bond elasticity, focus on convertible bonds with elastic advantages in structure, such as those with a par value between 80 - 100 yuan. During the short - term valuation upward period, the elastic asymmetry advantage of convertible bonds is more significant in medium - and low - par value convertible bonds, especially those in the 70 - 100 yuan par value group, which have better offensive - defensive properties [12]. - During the interim report period, 123 convertible bond issuers have disclosed their semi - annual performance forecasts for 2025. Industries such as electronics and non - ferrous metals have relatively more issuers with pre - increased or slightly increased performance. It is recommended to focus on convertible bonds of industries with stable demand and high performance certainty, as well as those with performance recovery expectations under the "anti - involution" trend, and avoid some high - price and high - premium targets that deviate from fundamentals [2][19]. 3.1.2. Weekly Review and Market Outlook - The market showed mixed daily gains and losses this week but rose overall. The A - share market had different trends each day, with changes in trading volume and sector performance. For example, on Monday, the trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 1480.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 255.7 billion yuan from the previous day, and the humanoid robot and reducer concepts led the gains [22]. - It is believed that the current A - shares still present good allocation value. The rebound in export orders has led to a narrow improvement in the PMI in June, and measures such as large - scale equipment updates and consumer goods trade - ins are expected to boost domestic demand. At the convertible bond level, there is support on the demand side under the shrinking supply, but be vigilant against callback risks. In terms of industries, focus on popular themes, domestic demand - oriented sectors, and high - dividend sectors under the Chinese - characteristic valuation system [23]. 3.2. Weekly Tracking of the Convertible Bond Market 3.2.1. The Equity Market Closed Higher - This week, major equity market indices closed higher. The Wind All - A Index rose 1.40%, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.69%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.04%, and the ChiNext Index rose 3.17%. The market style was more inclined to small - cap value [27]. - Among the Shenwan industry indices, 19 industries rose and 12 fell. The communication, pharmaceutical biology, and automobile industries led the gains, with increases of 7.56%, 4.00%, and 3.28% respectively, while the media, real estate, and public utilities industries were among the top losers [30]. 3.2.2. The Convertible Bond Market Closed Higher, and the Hundred - Yuan Premium Rate Rose - This week, the convertible bond market closed higher. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 0.67%, the Shanghai Convertible Bond Index rose 0.52%, and the Shenzhen Convertible Bond Index rose 0.92%. The average daily trading volume of convertible bonds increased, with an average daily trading volume of 70.669 billion yuan, an increase of 2.554 billion yuan from last week, and a total weekly trading volume of 353.346 billion yuan [3][32]. - At the industry level, 22 convertible bond industries rose and 7 fell. The household appliances, media, and computer industries were the top three gainers, with increases of 3.21%, 2.49%, and 2.20% respectively. At the corresponding underlying stock level, 18 industries rose and 11 fell, with the household appliances, computer, and pharmaceutical biology industries leading the gains [38]. - Most individual convertible bonds rose (341 out of 466). After excluding the closing data of newly - listed convertible bonds this week, the top five weekly gainers were Borui Convertible Bond (pharmaceutical biology, 36.83%), Bohui Convertible Bond (petroleum and petrochemical, 33.80%), Julong Convertible Bond (basic chemicals, 24.43%), Yitian Convertible Bond (household appliances, 24.41%), and Hongfeng Convertible Bond (power equipment, 23.14%). The top five weekly losers were Seli Convertible Bond (pharmaceutical biology, - 9.74%), Guangda Convertible Bond (power equipment, - 8.86%), Huachen Convertible Bond (power equipment, - 8.71%), Punai Convertible Bond (building materials, - 8.32%), and Liande Convertible Bond (electronics, - 7.44%). The top five in terms of weekly trading volume were Seli Convertible Bond (pharmaceutical biology, 22.08 billion yuan), Bohui Convertible Bond (petroleum and petrochemical, 14.263 billion yuan), Outong Convertible Bond (power equipment, 11.195 billion yuan), Borui Convertible Bond (pharmaceutical biology, 11.061 billion yuan), and Huicheng Convertible Bond (environmental protection, 10.133 billion yuan) [40]. - The weighted conversion value of the entire market increased, and the premium rate rose. The weighted average conversion value at the end of this week was 95.31 yuan, an increase of 0.45 yuan from the end of last week. The weighted conversion premium rate of the entire market was 44.37%, an increase of 0.39 percentage points from last week. The hundred - yuan par value premium rate was 23.38%, an increase of 0.80 percentage points from last week. The median implied volatility of the entire market's convertible bonds was 32.71%, an increase of 0.79 percentage points from last week, and the pure - bond premium rate of debt - biased convertible bonds was 8.28%, an increase of 0.21 percentage points from last week [47]. 3.2.3. High - Frequency Tracking of Different Types of Convertible Bonds 3.2.3.1. Classification Valuation Changes - This week, the valuations of convertible bonds with a par value below 80 yuan increased significantly, while those with a par value between 80 - 90 yuan decreased, and the valuations of other par - value convertible bonds increased. The valuations of AAA, AA +, and AA - rated convertible bonds increased, while those of other ratings decreased. The valuation of large - cap convertible bonds increased, while those of other size - segmented convertible bonds decreased [53]. - Since the beginning of 2024, the conversion premium rates of equity - biased and balanced convertible bonds have rebounded from the bottom. As of Friday, the conversion premium rate of equity - biased convertible bonds was around the 35th percentile since 2017, and that of balanced convertible bonds was below the 50th percentile since 2017 [53]. 3.2.3.2. Market Index Performance - This week, AAA - rated convertible bonds fell by 0.06%, while other rated convertible bonds rose. Since 2023, AAA - rated convertible bonds have recorded an 18.83% return, AA + - rated convertible bonds 6.65%, AA - rated convertible bonds 10.00%, AA - - rated convertible bonds 18.17%, A + - rated convertible bonds 20.64%, and A and below - rated convertible bonds 26.82%. Historically, high - rated AAA convertible bonds have shown stable performance, while low - rated convertible bonds have shown weaker downside resistance and greater rebound strength [69][71]. - This week, convertible bonds of all sizes rose. Small - cap convertible bonds rose 2.23%, small - and medium - cap convertible bonds 0.67%, medium - cap convertible bonds 0.74%, and large - cap convertible bonds 0.22%. Since 2023, small - cap convertible bonds have recorded a 21.20% return, small - and medium - cap convertible bonds 18.87%, medium - cap convertible bonds 15.00%, and large - cap convertible bonds 14.77% [71]. 3.3. Convertible Bond Supply and Clause Tracking 3.3.1. This Week's Primary Plan Issuance - Two new convertible bonds were listed this week (Yongxi Convertible Bond and Xizhen Convertible Bond), and three have been issued but not yet listed (Libo Convertible Bond, Bo 25 Convertible Bond, and Guanghe Convertible Bond). There were six primary approvals this week (from July 14 to July 18, 2025). Jindawen (1.801 billion yuan) and Weidao Nano (1.17 billion yuan) were approved by the CSRC [75]. - Since the beginning of 2023 to July 18, 2025, there have been a total of 86 planned convertible bonds, with a total scale of 138.41 billion yuan. Among them, 11 convertible bonds have passed the board of directors' resolution, with a total scale of 15.878 billion yuan; 40 have passed the general meeting of shareholders, with a total scale of 67.022 billion yuan; 29 have been accepted by the exchange, with a total scale of 48.781 billion yuan; 2 have passed the listing committee, with a total scale of 1.45 billion yuan; and 4 have been approved by the CSRC, with a total scale of 5.28 billion yuan [76]. 3.3.2. Downward Revision & Redemption Clauses - This week, 12 convertible bonds announced that they were expected to trigger a downward revision, 4 announced that they would not make a downward revision, 1 proposed a downward revision, and 1 announced the result of a downward revision [79]. - This week, 8 convertible bonds announced that they were expected to trigger redemption, 3 announced that they would not redeem in advance, and 5 announced early redemption [81][82]. - As of the end of this week, there were 5 convertible bonds still in the put - option declaration period and 23 in the company's capital - reduction repayment declaration period. It is recommended to continuously monitor the price changes of convertible bonds and the marginal changes in the company's tendency for downward revisions [84].

Core Viewpoint - The recent performance of cyclical stocks, such as photovoltaic, steel, and chemicals, indicates a potential signal for the mid-stage main upward wave of the bull market [1][12] Group 1: Historical Context - In previous major bull markets (2013-2015 and 2019-2021), cyclical stocks underperformed in the early stages but became active in the later stages [2][5] - During the mid-stage of the 2014-2015 bull market, cyclical stocks outperformed despite weak economic conditions and declining commodity prices, driven by themes like mergers and acquisitions and state-owned enterprise reforms [2][5] - In the 2020-2021 bull market, cyclical stocks significantly outperformed as the economy stabilized and commodity prices rose [2][5] Group 2: Reasons Behind Performance - The underperformance of cyclical stocks in the early bull market stages is attributed to limited incremental capital, leading to slow price increases, while only a few sectors with strong fundamentals saw gains [9][12] - As the bull market progresses, increased resident capital leads to valuation uplifts across most sectors, with cyclical stocks benefiting from their low valuations in the early stages [9][12] Group 3: Future Outlook - There are two potential scenarios for the future: 1. If economic recovery is weak and supply-side policies take time to impact, cyclical stocks may see 1-2 quarters of excess returns but face volatility afterward [12] 2. If supply-side policies improve quickly and demand-side growth policies show results, cyclical stocks could experience a year-long rally starting from the mid-stage of the bull market [12] - Regardless of the scenario, cyclical stocks are expected to generate excess returns within the next 1-2 quarters [12] Group 4: Current Market Judgments - The current market is characterized by low valuations, weak corporate earnings, and positive policy signals, resembling the early stages of previous bull markets [16] - The market is entering a phase driven by policy improvements and capital inflows, suggesting a broader bull market is likely [16] Group 5: Investment Strategy - The recommendation is to adopt a flexible allocation strategy, increasing exposure to non-bank financials, AI applications, and cyclical stocks, which are expected to show elastic performance in the next six months [18][19] - The focus should shift from a "barbell strategy" to an "elastic strategy," with strong performance anticipated in sectors like new consumption and AI, which are less correlated with the economy [18][19]

Core Viewpoint - The market is expected to experience a correction in the upcoming week due to various technical and quantitative indicators suggesting a weakening market sentiment [1][2]. Market Analysis - The liquidity shock indicator for the CSI 300 index was recorded at 1.71, indicating that current market liquidity is 1.71 times higher than the average level over the past year [2]. - The PUT-CALL ratio for the SSE 50 ETF options increased to 0.80, reflecting a growing caution among investors regarding the short-term performance of the SSE 50 ETF [2]. - The five-day average turnover rates for the SSE Composite Index and Wind All A Index were 1.07% and 1.65%, respectively, indicating a decrease in trading activity [2]. Macroeconomic Factors - The onshore and offshore RMB exchange rates experienced slight declines of -0.08% and -0.1% respectively [2]. - New RMB loans in June amounted to 22,400 billion, exceeding the consensus forecast of 18,447.29 billion and the previous value of 6,200 billion [2]. - The broad money supply (M2) grew by 8.3% year-on-year, surpassing both the consensus forecast of 8.08% and the previous value of 7.9% [2]. Technical Analysis - The Wind All A Index remains above the SAR point, but the index and SAR point are now closely aligned [2]. - The moving average strength index is currently at 253, placing it in the 93.8 percentile since 2021 [2]. - The sentiment model score is 1 out of 5, indicating a decrease in market sentiment, while the trend model signal is positive and the weighted model signal is negative [2]. Performance Overview - For the week of July 14-18, the SSE 50 Index rose by 0.28%, the CSI 300 Index increased by 1.09%, the CSI 500 Index gained 1.2%, and the ChiNext Index surged by 3.17% [3]. - The overall market PE (TTM) stands at 20.4 times, which is at the 65.3 percentile since 2005 [3]. Factor Crowding Observation - The small-cap factor crowding is at a high level with a score of 1.07, while the low valuation factor crowding is at 0.36 [3]. - The industry crowding levels are relatively high in banking, comprehensive, non-ferrous metals, steel, and non-bank financial sectors, with notable increases in steel and pharmaceutical industries [3].

Group 1 - The current price recovery in China may reshape the global demand cycle, output cycle, profit distribution, and capital flow [2][12] - The global advantage of China's output system is reflected in asset pricing, leading to a systematic PB (Price-to-Book) adjustment, with Chinese assets expected to rise rapidly and the RMB (Renminbi) likely to appreciate [2][12] - Focus is on non-bank financials, low PB stocks, Hang Seng Technology, and military industry, while paying attention to long-term bonds and micro-market risks [3][12] Group 2 - In June, China's exports showed strong growth, with a year-on-year increase of 5.9%, improving from 4.7% previously, and exports to the US saw a significant month-on-month increase of 32.44% [11][12] - The report indicates a broad recovery in commodity prices in China, suggesting a potential restructuring of globalization, moving away from the previous US-dominated profit monopoly [12] - The Hong Kong stock market saw significant gains, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 2.84% and the Hang Seng Technology Index increasing by 5.53% [13][15] Group 3 - The A-share market experienced a broad rally, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.69% and the ChiNext Index leading the gains [19][31] - The healthcare sector outperformed, with significant gains in cancer treatment concepts and biopharmaceuticals [18][31] - High-end manufacturing sectors showed strong relative performance, while financial and real estate sectors faced declines [31][32] Group 4 - The report highlights a divergence in foreign capital index futures positions, with IC turning into a net short position and IF expanding its net short position, while IH remained stable [41][42] - The onshore and offshore RMB swap yields have declined, with the 10-year US Treasury yield surpassing the yields of Chinese bonds and swaps [45][46] Group 5 - Upcoming key focus includes the US M2 money supply and new home sales data [47][49]

Group 1 - The core conclusion indicates that the recent performance of previously oversupplied cyclical industries (such as photovoltaic, steel, and chemicals) may signal the entry of the bull market into its mid-term main upward wave [3][7][19] - In the two major bull markets (2013-2015 and 2019-2021), cyclical stocks significantly underperformed in the early stages but began to show strong performance in the later stages [3][8][10] - The steel sector is highlighted as the most representative cyclical industry due to its limited sub-sectors and high correlation with domestic macroeconomic demand [10][19] Group 2 - The report suggests that the main reason for the cyclical stocks' performance shift is related to valuation rather than earnings changes, as the fundamentals of cyclical stocks varied significantly in the two bull markets [3][13][19] - In the early stages of a bull market, only a few sectors see valuation increases, while in the later stages, most sectors experience valuation uplift, making cyclical stocks' valuation advantages more pronounced [3][13][19] - The report outlines two potential scenarios for the future: one where economic recovery is weak, leading to temporary excess returns for cyclical stocks, and another where rapid supply-side improvements and stable growth policies lead to a longer bullish trend for cyclical stocks [19][23][28] Group 3 - The report emphasizes that the current market conditions, characterized by low valuations and active policy support, resemble the early stages of previous bull markets, suggesting a comprehensive bull market is likely [23][28] - The suggested tactical approach includes increasing allocations to sectors with elastic performance, such as non-bank financials, AI applications, and cyclical stocks, which are expected to show elastic performance in the next six months [28][29] - Specific industry allocation recommendations include increasing exposure to non-bank financials, media, and cyclical sectors like chemicals and steel, which may benefit from stable supply policies and potential demand stabilization [29][30]

Group 1 - Korean investors have shown increasing interest in Chinese stocks, with a cumulative trading volume of approximately $5.514 billion in 2023, making China the second most favored overseas market for Korean investors, following the United States [1] - The trading volume of Korean investors in Chinese mainland and Hong Kong stocks surged to $782 million in February 2023, nearly doubling from the previous month, marking the highest level since August 2022 [2] - The recent launch of AI models in China has attracted global capital, further fueling Korean investors' enthusiasm for the Chinese market [2] Group 2 - The Hong Kong IPO market has seen a significant increase in activity, with total fundraising exceeding 100 billion HKD in the first half of 2023, surpassing levels from the past three years [3] - Notable IPOs include CATL raising 41.006 billion HKD and Hengrui Medicine raising 11.374 billion HKD, among others, indicating strong investor interest across various sectors [4] Group 3 - Citigroup's report indicates that despite macroeconomic fluctuations, Asian stock markets are performing better than global counterparts, with a constructive mid-term outlook for Chinese stocks, particularly in the consumer sector [7] - Morgan Stanley predicts sustained global investor interest in Chinese assets, while Goldman Sachs forecasts that AI advancements could lead to a 2.5% annual increase in overall earnings for Chinese stocks over the next decade [7] - JPMorgan anticipates a continued revaluation of Chinese tech stocks, projecting an average annual return of 7.8% over the next 10 to 15 years [7]