本次2603向2606合约移仓速度偏慢，2603合约持仓量偏高，或是由于本轮债市修复行情中，参与做多的资金对债 市行情的预期仅为超跌反弹，而非系统性看多，对债市的行情的 如何看待本轮期债移仓行情？ 2/24，国债期货市场演绎移仓行情，T2603合约单日减仓约5.5万手，TL2603单日减仓约1.67万手。 同时，2606合约表现明显强于2603合约，跨期价差进一步收窄。 本次2603向2606合约移仓速度偏慢，2603合约持仓量偏高，或是由于本轮债市修复行情中，参与做多的资金对债 市行情的预期仅为超跌反弹，而非系统性看多，对债市的行情的预期可能以春节假期为分界点，而今年春节偏 晚，进而使得春节假期后2月仅剩的4个交易日可能出现2603合约集中平仓需求。 我们假设2603合约的最终交割率与2025年4次交割的均值相同，不进入交割的机构均在2月底前平仓近月合约，则 估算结果显示在2月25日-27日3个交易日，T2603和TL2603分别需要减仓8.1万手和4.8万手。 进入2月尾声，跨期价差策略窗口接近结束，但单边行情或继续演绎。 建议投资者直接参与做多T2606和TL2606合约。 如何看待本轮期债移仓行情？ ...

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Report's Core View - On Thursday, iron ore closed higher, and it also closed higher during the night session. The downstream steel mills are gradually resuming work, with most resuming after the Lantern Festival. Currently, the resumption is mostly for electric - arc furnace steel, so the incremental demand for iron ore is limited. The daily output of hot metal this week was 2.3328 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 28,000 tons, and it is expected to continue to increase. It is recommended to hold long positions cautiously [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Review - Iron ore closed higher on Thursday and during the night session [1] Important Information - On February 18, 2026, the Executive Management Committee (GECEX) of the Brazilian Foreign Trade Commission issued Resolution No. 856 of 2026, making a positive anti - dumping final ruling on galvanized and aluminized zinc sheet coils originating from China, and deciding to impose an anti - dumping duty of $284.98 - 709.63 per ton on the Chinese products involved for a period of 5 years [1] - Around the Spring Festival in 2026, Chinese shipbuilding industry received many important orders in the international market, covering various ship types such as bulk carriers, ro - ro ships, and heavy - lift ships, showing strong competitiveness and global recognition, and laying a solid foundation for "both quantity and quality improvement" throughout the year [1] - This week, the supply of five major steel products was 7.9677 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1%; the total inventory of five major steel products was 18.4611 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 7.8%; the weekly consumption of five major products was 5.6464 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10.9%. Among them, the consumption of building materials decreased by 47.6%, and the consumption of plates decreased by 0.3% [1] Market Logic - Downstream steel mills are gradually resuming work, mostly after the Lantern Festival. Currently, the resumption is mainly for electric - arc furnace steel, so the incremental demand for iron ore is limited. The daily output of hot metal this week was 2.3328 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 28,000 tons, and it is expected to continue to increase [1] Trading Strategy - Hold long positions cautiously [1]

多元金融板块盘中震荡走强，南华期货逼近涨停，瑞达期货、翠微股份、永安期货、弘业期货、越秀资 本跟涨。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The price of oil fluctuates significantly with the negotiation process. The indirect negotiation between the US and Iran has made "significant progress" and is close to reaching a consensus in some areas, but the US military pressure continues and the core differences still exist. The US also held meetings with representatives from Russia and Ukraine respectively, and the three - party talks may move to Abu Dhabi in early March. Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports in the first 24 days of February reached the highest level since April 2023, and Iran is also vigorously exporting crude oil, driving up the freight from the Middle East to Asia and supporting the relatively strong operation of the domestic oil price. The SC2604 is expected to run in the range of 483 - 495, and there are long - term opportunities to try short positions on rallies [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: The mediation of Oman indicates that the US and Iran have made significant progress in the negotiation to resolve the long - standing nuclear dispute. The US has a large military deployment in the Middle East. The US and Ukraine officials held talks in Geneva about post - war reconstruction. The cost of chartering very large crude carriers from the Middle East to China exceeded $200,000 per day for the first time since 2020 [3]. - **Basis**: On February 26, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $71.03 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude oil was $69.89 per barrel. The basis was 42.31 yuan/barrel, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price [3]. - **Inventory**: The API crude oil inventory in the US for the week ending February 20 increased by 11.427 million barrels, exceeding the expected increase of 1.25 million barrels. The EIA inventory for the same period increased by 15.989 million barrels, far exceeding the expected increase of 1.481 million barrels. The inventory in the Cushing area increased by 0.881 million barrels. As of February 26, the inventory of Shanghai crude oil futures remained unchanged at 2.557 million barrels [3]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the price is above the average [3]. - **Main Position**: As of February 17, the main position of WTI crude oil was long, with an increase in long positions; the main position of Brent crude oil was long, with a decrease in long positions [3]. - **Expectation**: The SC2604 is expected to run in the range of 483 - 495, and there are long - term opportunities to try short positions on rallies [3]. 3.2 Recent News - **US - Iran Negotiation**: On February 26, Iran and the US held the third round of indirect negotiations in Geneva. Oman's mediation led to optimistic signals, with "significant progress" and "close to consensus" in some areas. However, the US military deployment in the Middle East continued to escalate, indicating core differences. The technical - level negotiation will be held in Vienna next week [5]. - **US Trade Investigation**: The US International Trade Commission will investigate the economic impact of revoking China's Permanent Normal Trade Relations status in a six - year scenario, which may lead to higher tariffs on Chinese imports. The investigation results will be announced by August 21 [5]. - **Saudi Oil Exports**: The oil exports from Saudi Arabia are expected to reach the highest level in nearly three years. The oil exports in the first 24 days of February reached 7.3 million barrels per day, the highest since April 2023. If the trend continues, the daily average export volume will increase by more than 0.4 million barrels compared with January [5]. 3.3 Long - Short Concerns - **Likely to be Bullish**: Not clearly stated in the content - **Likely to be Bearish**: The IEA is worried about crude oil surplus, and the supply problems of some oil - producing countries have been alleviated [6]. - **Market Driver**: In the short term, continue to focus on geopolitical factors; in the medium - to - long term, there is a risk of oversupply [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The settlement price of Brent crude oil increased by $0.15 (0.21%), WTI crude oil decreased by $0.21 (- 0.32%), SC crude oil decreased by 3.40 yuan (- 0.69%), and Oman crude oil decreased by $0.36 (- 0.51%) [7]. - **Spot Market**: The price of UK Brent Dtd increased by $1.35 (1.90%), WTI decreased by $0.21 (- 0.32%), Oman crude oil increased by $0.61 (0.87%), Shengli crude oil increased by $0.13 (0.19%), and Dubai crude oil increased by $0.11 (0.16%) [9]. - **Inventory Data**: The API inventory in the US for the week ending February 20 increased by 11.427 million barrels, and the EIA inventory increased by 15.989 million barrels [3]. 3.5 Position Data - **WTI Crude Oil**: As of February 17, the net long position of WTI crude oil funds was 141,343, an increase of 23,529 [17]. - **Brent Crude Oil**: As of February 17, the net long position of Brent crude oil funds was 2,631,863, a decrease of 17,876 [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The global market is currently in an observational phase with no clear consensus-driven trends. The short - term market is unlikely to have a unilateral trend, and the Fed's interest - rate cut narrative may be the next potential catalyst [2]. - The RMB exchange rate has shown strength. Short - term strategies for export and import enterprises are proposed, such as export enterprises locking in forward exchange settlement and import enterprises adopting a rolling purchase strategy [3][4]. - The stock index is expected to be bullish, while the bond market should focus on the Two Sessions' news [5][6]. - The container shipping market for the European route is expected to be weak in the short term, with a shift in trading logic [7][10]. - In the new energy market, the speculative sentiment of lithium carbonate is strong, and industrial silicon and polysilicon are in a situation of weak supply and demand [12][15]. - In the non - ferrous metal market, copper prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level, aluminum and its related products are expected to fluctuate and consolidate, zinc is expected to fluctuate strongly, nickel - stainless steel is expected to fluctuate at a high level, tin is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and lead is expected to fluctuate and adjust [18][22][23][25][27][28]. - In the oil and fat feed market, oilseeds have strong expectations but weak reality, and oils are expected to improve [29][31]. - In the energy and oil and gas market, high - sulfur fuel oil is under pressure, low - sulfur fuel oil is strong, and asphalt prices may decline [34][35]. - In the precious metal market, platinum - palladium is expected to be in a long - term bull market, and gold - silver is strategically bullish in the short term [38][40][41][43]. - In the chemical market, pulp and offset paper are expected to fluctuate at a low level, pure benzene - styrene should pay attention to geopolitical trends, LPG is affected by geopolitics, PX - PTA is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall, MEG - bottle chips are expected to fluctuate widely, methanol can consider a positive spread strategy, plastics PP are expected to fluctuate and decline, and rubber is expected to fluctuate in a range [45][47][50][52][56][59][61][64]. - In the black market, rebar and hot - rolled coils are expected to be weak, iron ore may recover seasonally, coking coal and coke need to focus on the resumption rhythm, and ferrosilicon and ferromanganese should wait for the hedging opportunity [79][80][81][84]. - In the agricultural and soft commodity market, the price of live pigs may continue to decline, cotton is recommended to go long on dips, sugar's rebound space is limited, eggs may fluctuate at a low level in the short term and rise in the medium term, apples are supported by delivery contradictions, dates are expected to fluctuate at a low level, and logs can be observed [85][88][91][92][100][102][103]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: The indirect negotiation between Iran and the US ended with "significant progress". The US initial jobless claims were 212,000, the Bank of Korea maintained the benchmark interest rate at 2.5%, and the Bank of Japan may consider raising interest rates [1]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The on - shore and off - shore RMB against the US dollar both broke through the 6.84 mark. Short - term strategies for export and import enterprises are provided [3][4]. - **Stock Index**: The stock index is expected to be bullish, with attention on the sustainability of trading volume [5]. - **Treasury Bond**: The bond market is bearish, and attention should be paid to the news of the Two Sessions [5][6]. - **Container Shipping for European Route**: The market is weak, with a shift in trading logic from expecting price increases to facing price cuts in the off - season [7][10]. Commodities New Energy - **Lithium Carbonate**: The speculative sentiment is strong, and upstream enterprises are recommended to hedge by shorting at high prices [12][14]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: They are in a situation of weak supply and demand. Short - term prices may break through the support level, and medium - term strategies are to go long at low prices [15][16]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level, and different trading strategies are proposed [18][21]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. Different trading strategies are recommended according to different products [22][23]. - **Zinc**: It is expected to fluctuate strongly, and attention should be paid to the negative feedback of tariff news [23][24]. - **Nickel - Stainless Steel**: They are expected to fluctuate at a high level, and attention should be paid to US tariff and Indonesian supply - side factors [25][26]. - **Tin**: It is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and attention should be paid to the approval progress in Indonesia and the actual resumption progress in Myanmar [27]. - **Lead**: It is expected to fluctuate and adjust, and interval operations are recommended [28]. Oil and Fat Feed - **Oilseeds**: They have strong expectations but weak reality. After the market returns to fundamentals, shorting and reverse - spread opportunities can be considered [29][30]. - **Oils**: They are expected to improve, and long - position opportunities at low prices can be considered for palm oil [31][32]. Energy and Oil and Gas - **Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil is under pressure, and low - sulfur fuel oil is strong. The market shows a differentiated pattern [34]. - **Asphalt**: Prices may decline, especially when the demand after the Spring Festival is lower than expected [35]. Precious Metals - **Platinum - Palladium**: They are expected to be in a long - term bull market, but attention should be paid to various risk factors [38][40]. - **Gold - Silver**: They are strategically bullish in the short term, and long - position strategies on dips are recommended [41][43]. Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: They are expected to fluctuate at a low level, and interval trading strategies are recommended [45][46]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: Attention should be paid to geopolitical trends, and long - position strategies on dips are recommended for styrene [47][49]. - **LPG**: It is mainly affected by geopolitics, and the short - term pricing is dominated by the Iran - US situation [50][51]. - **PX - PTA**: They are expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall, and long - position strategies on dips and short - spread strategies for processing fees are recommended [52][55]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: They are expected to fluctuate widely, and short - selling is not recommended in the short term [56][58]. - **Methanol**: A positive spread strategy for the 5 - 9 contract can be considered, and attention should be paid to geopolitical factors [59][60]. - **Plastic PP**: They are expected to fluctuate and decline, and attention should be paid to the demand after the resumption of work by downstream enterprises and the inventory removal speed [61][63]. - **Rubber**: It is expected to fluctuate in a range, and different trading strategies are recommended for different types of rubber [64][71]. - **Urea**: It is recommended to buy at a low price, and the market price is expected to rise steadily [72]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Soda ash is expected to fluctuate with limited price movement, and glass prices are restricted by supply recovery and high inventory in the middle - stream [74][75]. - **Propylene**: It is affected by cost and supply - demand factors, and the market is still supported fundamentally [76][77]. Black Metals - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: They are expected to be weak, and although the market may hype up expectations near the Two Sessions, the fundamentals are still weak [79]. - **Iron Ore**: It may recover seasonally, and low - buying opportunities or positive - spread strategies can be considered at low valuations [79][80]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: They need to focus on the resumption rhythm of mines and steel mills after the Spring Festival, and the price may face short - term supply - demand mismatch or downward pressure [81][83]. - **Ferrosilicon & Ferromanganese**: They are affected by manganese ore news, and hedging opportunities after the emotional release can be waited for [84]. Agricultural and Soft Commodities - **Live Pigs**: The price is expected to continue to decline, and a sell - call option strategy is proposed [85][87]. - **Cotton**: It is recommended to go long on dips, and attention should be paid to the peak - season demand and US trade policy [88][90]. - **Sugar**: The rebound space is limited, although there is some upward driving force [91]. - **Eggs**: They may fluctuate at a low level in the short term and rise in the medium term [92][93]. - **Apples**: The short - term demand is weak after the Spring Festival, but the delivery contradiction provides support [100][101]. - **Dates**: They are expected to fluctuate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the post - festival replenishment demand [102]. - **Logs**: The futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and an observation strategy is recommended [103].

| 申万期货品种策略日报——股指 | 2026/2/27 | 星期五 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 申银万国期货研究所 贾婷婷（从业资格号：F3056905；交易咨询号：Z0016232 ）jiatt@sywgqh.com.cn;15921620356 | 申银万国期货研究所 柴玉荣 （从业资格号：F03111639；交易咨询号：Z0018586）chaiyr@sywgqh.com.cn;18802979529 | | | | | | | | | | | 一、股指期货市场 | IF当月 | IF下月 | IF下季 | IF隔季 | | | | | | | | 前两日收盘价 | 4731.40 | 4727.00 | 4696.40 | 4640.20 | 前日收盘价 | 4712.20 | 4706.60 | 4671.20 | 4614.80 | | | 涨跌 | -18.80 | -18.80 | -24.60 | -24.60 | 沪深300 | 涨跌幅 | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For Shanghai Nickel, the external market has corrected, but the price remains above the 20 - day moving average. The nickel ore market was stable during the Spring Festival. Although there was a landslide accident in the Indonesian mining area and the affected area suspended operations, it had little impact on the overall supply, and the ore price remained firm. The nickel - iron price rebounded slightly before the festival, with strong cost - line support. The electrolytic nickel production increased in January, and the previously reduced production capacity resumed. The cumulative inventory at home and abroad is at a high level, with sufficient overall supply. The inventory of downstream stainless steel has increased, and the pre - festival consumption was weak. In the new energy industry, the first quarter of new energy vehicles is also a consumption off - season, with overall weak demand. The basis is positive, the inventory situation is negative, the disk is neutral, the main position is net long and the long position is increasing, and the Shanghai Nickel 2605 will oscillate around the 20 - day moving average [2]. - For stainless steel, the spot stainless steel price has risen. In the short term, the nickel ore price is firm, the demand in Indonesia is strong, and the nickel - iron price has rebounded, with strong cost - line support. The stainless steel inventory has continued to increase, and it is necessary to pay attention to whether the demand can effectively recover after the festival. The basis is positive, the inventory situation is neutral, the disk is neutral, and the stainless steel 2604 will oscillate widely around the 20 - day moving average [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel Price Overview - The price of Shanghai Nickel's main contract decreased from 142,180 on February 25th to 141,040 on February 26th, a decrease of 1140; the price of LME Nickel decreased from 18,045 to 17,730, a decrease of 315. The price of stainless steel's main contract increased from 14,245 to 14,265, an increase of 20 [7]. Nickel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - As of February 13th, the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 58,775 tons, of which the futures inventory was 52,458 tons, an increase of 1318 tons and 1184 tons respectively. On February 26th, the LME nickel inventory was 289,506, an increase of 1698 compared with February 25th; the Shanghai Nickel (warehouse receipts) was 53,158, a decrease of 19; the total inventory was 342,664, an increase of 1679 [9][10]. Stainless Steel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - On February 13th, the inventory in Wuxi was 562,400 tons, the inventory in Foshan was 326,600 tons, and the national inventory was 1,006,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 41,000 tons. Among them, the inventory of the 300 series was 647,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15,400 tons. On February 26th, the stainless steel warehouse receipts were 60,750, the same as on February 25th [13][14]. Nickel Ore and Nickel - Iron Prices - The price of red soil nickel ore CIF (Ni1.5%) increased from 66.5 to 70.5 US dollars per wet ton; the price of red soil nickel ore CIF (Ni0.9%) remained at 30 US dollars per wet ton. The high - nickel (8 - 12) price per nickel point increased from 1065.33 to 1073.43 yuan, and the low - nickel (below 2) price per ton increased from 3600 to 3675 yuan [18]. Stainless Steel Production Cost - The traditional production cost is 13,847, the scrap steel production cost is 13,441, and the low - nickel + pure nickel production cost is 18,181 [20]. Nickel Import Cost Calculation - The imported price is converted to 138,984 yuan per ton [23].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 白糖早报——2026年2月27日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 1、基本面：Covrig Analytics:26/27年度全球糖过剩预计缩减至140万吨，低于25/26年度的470 万吨。Green Pool：预计26/27年度全球糖供应量过剩15.6万吨，低于25/26年度的274万吨。2026 年1月底，25/26年度本期制糖全国累计产糖689万吨；全国累计销糖290万吨；销糖率42.09%。 2025年12月中国进口食糖58万吨，同比增加19万吨；进口糖浆及预混粉等三项合计6.97万吨，同 比减少12.08万吨。偏空。 5、主力持仓：持仓偏空，净持仓空增，主力趋势偏不明朗， ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2026年2月27日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 黄金 1、基本面：伊美第三轮谈判结束，双方分歧较大，金价震荡；美国三大股指收盘涨 跌不一，欧洲三大股指收盘全线上；美债收益率集体下跌，10年期美债收益率跌 4.59个基点报4.004%；美元指数涨0.13%报97.79，离岸人民币对美元大幅升值报 6.8444；COMEX黄金期货跌0.47%报5201.50美元/盎司；中性 2、基差：黄金期货1146.48，现货1143.78，基差-2.7，现货贴水期货；中性 3、库存：黄金期货仓单105072千克，不变；偏空 4、盘面：20日均线向上，k线在20日均线上方；中性 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views 2.1. Daily Views on Coking Coal - The supply of coking coal has increased significantly after the Spring Festival as coal mines resume production, while coking enterprises are cautious in purchasing raw coal and have low restocking demand. The coking coal market is in the initial stage of supply - demand recovery, with supply recovering slightly faster than demand. The price is expected to be stable and weak in the short term [2]. - The spot price of coking coal is 1200, and the basis is 110, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [2]. - The total sample inventory of coking coal is 1971 tons, a decrease of 243 tons compared to last week [2]. - The downstream demand for coking coal is at a seasonal low, and steel mills maintain a low - inventory strategy. The coking coal price is expected to be weakly stable in the short term [2]. 2.2. Daily Views on Coke - After the Spring Festival, the inventory of coke in coking enterprises will gradually decline. Due to the approaching Two Sessions, the supply of coke is expected to decrease [7]. - The spot price of coke is 1630, and the basis is - 44, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price [7]. - The total sample inventory of coke is 944 tons, a decrease of 3 tons compared to last week [7]. - During the Two Sessions, the demand for coke is weak, and the cost - side support is insufficient. The coke price is expected to be weakly stable in the short term [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Price - On February 26, 2026, the prices of imported coking coal from Russia and Australia at different ports are provided, along with their price changes [10]. - On February 26, 2026, the prices of port metallurgical coke at different ports, including different grades and origins, are presented [11]. 3.2. Inventory - Coking coal port inventory is 258 tons, unchanged from last week; coke port inventory is 199 tons, a decrease of 6 tons from last week [22]. - Independent coking enterprises' coking coal inventory is 893 tons, a decrease of 225 tons from last week; coke inventory is 56 tons, an increase of 12 tons from last week [26]. - Steel mills' coking coal inventory is 820 tons, a decrease of 18 tons from last week; coke inventory is 689 tons, a decrease of 9 tons from last week [31]. 3.3. Factors Affecting Coking Coal - Positive factors: rising iron - water production and limited supply increase [5]. - Negative factors: slowdown in raw coal procurement by coking and steel enterprises and weak steel prices [5]. 3.4. Factors Affecting Coke - Positive factors: rising iron - water production and increasing blast - furnace operating rate [9]. - Negative factors: squeezed profit margins of steel mills and partial over - consumption of restocking demand [9].