银河期货研究所 2026 年 1 月 28 日 0 / 49 期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 研究所 期货眼·日迹 | 股指期货：压力有所减轻 4 | | --- | | 国债期货：股债跷跷板 5 | | 蛋白粕：供应仍有压力 | 盘面走势偏强 6 | | --- | --- | | 白糖：外盘走势现分歧，郑糖底部震荡 6 | | | 油脂板块：油脂有所分化 7 | | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：北港现货稳定，盘面偏弱震荡 8 | | | 生猪：出栏压力增加 | 现货震荡运行 9 | | 花生：花生现货稳定，花生盘面底部震荡 10 | | | 鸡蛋：临近节前备货，蛋价有所上涨 10 | | | 苹果：节前走货尚可，苹果价格坚挺 11 | | | 棉花-棉纱：整体变化不大 | 棉价有所支撑 12 | | 钢材：需求边际转弱，钢价延续震荡 14 | | --- | | 双焦：基本面乏善可陈，关注资金扰动 14 | | 铁矿：终端需求低位，矿价震荡运行 15 | | 铁合金：估值偏低存在修复需求，短期震荡偏强 16 | | 金银：特朗普"暗示"弱美元，金银维持强势 17 | | --- | | 铂钯：美元信任危机 贵 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the strong performance of the A-share cyclical sector, particularly the 中证现金流ETF大成 (159235), which has seen a significant increase in both price and trading volume, indicating robust investor interest [1] - The 中证全指自由现金流指数, which the ETF tracks, focuses on companies with high free cash flow, reflecting strong cash flow generation capabilities, and has shown a strong upward trend, with a 2.02% increase [1][2] - The index's top ten weighted stocks include major companies such as 中国海油, 上汽集团, and 格力电器, which are positioned to benefit from the current cyclical recovery in the market [1][2] Group 2 - The index's focus on high cash flow companies is particularly relevant in the current cyclical environment, where sectors like oil, steel, and non-ferrous metals are experiencing improved supply-demand dynamics and rising product prices [2] - The recovery in domestic industrial production and infrastructure demand, along with low inventory levels, is providing strong upward momentum for the index, enhancing its performance [2] - The home appliance sector, which constitutes about 10% of the index, is also benefiting from increased domestic demand and improving conditions in the real estate sector, contributing to the overall resilience of the index [2] Group 3 - The analysis from 西部证券 indicates that during periods of economic downturn, there is a tendency for investors to flock to gold and stable cash flow assets, which has led to a reevaluation of cash flow strategies in the A-share market [3] - The shift from "involution" to "anti-involution" and the return of cross-border capital are expected to improve corporate free cash flow, making cash flow strategies more competitive compared to dividend strategies [3]

Core Viewpoint - The report indicates a decline in China's pig iron production, with a projected output of 60 million tons in December 2025, representing a year-on-year decrease of 9.9% and a cumulative production of 840 million tons for the year, down 3% compared to the previous year [1]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The report is based on data from the National Bureau of Statistics, highlighting a significant downward trend in pig iron production in China [1]. - The report is published by Zhiyan Consulting, a leading industry consulting firm in China, which specializes in providing in-depth industry research and strategic investment reports [1]. Group 2: Company Implications - The companies listed, including Baosteel Co., Ltd. (600019), Maanshan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd. (600808), and others, may face challenges due to the declining production trends in the pig iron sector [1]. - The report suggests that the industry may need to adapt its strategies in response to the projected decrease in production and market demand [1].

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights a projected decline in China's steel production in December 2025, with a year-on-year decrease of 3.8%, while the cumulative production for the year is expected to grow by 3.1% to 1.45 billion tons [1]. Group 1: Industry Overview - According to the National Bureau of Statistics, China's steel production is forecasted to be 120 million tons in December 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 3.8% [1]. - The cumulative steel production in China for the year 2025 is projected to reach 1.45 billion tons, indicating a cumulative growth of 3.1% [1]. Group 2: Companies Mentioned - Listed companies in the steel sector include Baosteel Co., Ltd. (600019), Ansteel Co., Ltd. (000898), Maanshan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd. (600808), Shagang Group (002075), Shougang Group (000959), Baotou Steel (600010), Taiyuan Iron & Steel (000825), Hunan Valin Steel (000932), Hebei Iron & Steel (000709), and Nanjing Steel (600282) [1]. Group 3: Research Report - The report titled "Analysis of Competitive Landscape and Investment Development Research on China's Steel Deep Processing Industry from 2026 to 2032" was published by Zhiyan Consulting, a leading industry consulting firm in China [1]. - Zhiyan Consulting has been dedicated to industry research for over a decade, providing in-depth industry reports, business plans, feasibility studies, and customized services [1].

2020-2025年中国粗钢产量统计图 数据来源：国家统计局，智研咨询整理 知前沿，问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构，十数年持续深耕产业研究领域，提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 务、敏锐的市场洞察力，专注于提供完善的产业解决方案，为您的投资决策赋能。 上市企业：宝钢股份（600019）,鞍钢股份（000898）,马钢股份（600808）,沙钢股份（002075）,首钢股 份（000959）,包钢股份（600010）,太钢不锈（000825）,华菱钢铁（000932）,河钢股份（000709）,八 一钢铁（600581） 相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2026-2032年中国粗钢行业市场运行态势及发展趋势分析报告》 根据国家统计局数据显示：2025年12月中国粗钢产量为0.7亿吨，同比下降10.3%；2025年中国粗钢累计 产量为9.6亿吨，累计下降4.4%。 ...

Group 1: Industrial Transition Overview - The report highlights that global industrial transition is entering a decisive phase by 2025, with a clear decarbonization path established[3] - The focus has shifted from "can emissions be reduced" to "how to achieve large-scale reductions at acceptable costs"[6] - In 2024, global CO2 emissions are projected to reach 3.82 billion tons, marking a historical high with a year-on-year increase of 0.9%[8] Group 2: Key Challenges - Five core constraints identified include technology deployment pace differences, insufficient low-carbon demand, fragmented policies, infrastructure gaps, and uneven capital allocation[4] - Approximately 50% of industrial emissions can be reduced using existing mature technologies, while the remaining emissions rely on advanced technologies like hydrogen and CCUS[6] - The rising interest rates are expected to increase the costs of wind and solar energy by approximately 30%[6] Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - In 2024, the aviation sector is expected to see a 10.4% increase in operational activity, contributing 1.108 billion tons of CO2 emissions, a 6.4% rise from the previous year[8] - The cement and steel industries are projected to experience slight decreases in emissions, while sectors like aviation and aluminum will see significant increases[8] Group 4: Policy and Economic Environment - The global industrial transition exhibits significant regional differentiation, with the EU leading compliance, the US balancing incentives and compliance, and emerging markets developing frameworks[14] - The economic environment is characterized by rising interest rates and cost inflation, which elevate the economic feasibility threshold for low-carbon projects[15] Group 5: Recommendations for Scaling Transition - The report suggests five strategic actions to promote large-scale transition: standardizing demand mechanisms, accelerating shared infrastructure construction, optimizing financing costs, prioritizing mature technology deployment, and enhancing policy and innovation collaboration[23]

在国家"双碳"战略目标引领下，钢铁工业的绿色低碳转型已成为行业发展的必然趋势。位于山东省寿光 市的鲁丽集团有限公司通过自主研发和升级改造，其HIsmelt熔融还原炼铁技术可直接熔炼铁矿粉及钢 厂废料，无需焦化、球团和烧结等污染严重的工序，具备原料适应性广、冶炼流程短、污染物排放量少 等特点，在环保效益、运营成本等方面较传统高炉工艺具有显著优势，开辟了钢铁工业绿色低碳转型的 新路径。 据了解，传统的长流程高炉炼铁工艺面临着资源、能源和环境的多重约束，尤其是对优质焦煤和块状炉 料的依赖，以及烧结、焦化环节的高污染排放，成为行业可持续发展的瓶颈。 鲁丽集团HIsmelt技术以其原料灵活、流程简短、环境友好、成本经济的突出特点，为钢铁行业特别是 为亟需绿色低碳转型的企业和缺乏焦煤资源及富含高磷矿资源的地区提供了一条切实可行的新路径。同 时，该技术对优化钢铁工艺结构、保障资源安全、推动绿色发展具有重要意义。 未来，鲁丽集团将以HIsmelt项目为基础进一步扩大该工艺的应用规模，计划研发年产200万吨以上的熔 融还原炼铁系统，致力于成为国内外熔融还原技术应用的标杆企业；联合上下游企业建立涵盖原料供 应、设备制造、技术服务 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoint - The price of finished products is expected to fluctuate weakly and remain in a low - level consolidation [1][3] 3. Summary by Related Information - **Economic Data**: In 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the national scale reached 739.82 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%. The profits of major industries in the machinery industry in 2025 showed growth, with the general equipment manufacturing industry growing by 4.2%, the special equipment manufacturing industry by 5.7%, the automotive manufacturing industry by 0.6%, the electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry by 4.9%, and the instrument manufacturing industry by 3.1% [2] - **Cost and Price**: On January 27, the average cost of 76 independent electric arc furnace construction steel mills was 3,378 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 4 yuan/ton. The average profit was - 80 yuan/ton, and the off - peak electricity profit was 33 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 4 yuan/ton. The ex - factory price of ordinary billet resources in Qian'an, Tangshan on January 27 was lowered by 20 yuan/ton to 2,930 yuan/ton [2] - **Market Analysis**: The decline of finished products yesterday was mainly dragged down by the fall of coking coal at the raw material end. The fundamentals have not changed much, with the characteristics of weak supply and demand still existing, and the market driving force is not strong. The macro - market has been relatively calm recently, providing no trend guidance for prices [2] - **Later Concerns**: Macro - policies and downstream demand conditions [3]

Group 1: Industrial Transition Overview - The report highlights that global industrial transition is entering a decisive phase by 2025, with a clear decarbonization path established[3] - Approximately 50% of industrial emissions can be reduced using existing mature technologies, while the remaining emissions rely on deep innovation and large-scale application of frontier technologies like hydrogen and CCUS[6] - In 2024, global CO2 emissions are projected to reach 38.2 billion tons, marking a historical high with a year-on-year increase of 0.9%, where high-emission industries contribute nearly 40% of the emission growth[8] Group 2: Key Challenges - The core challenges for high-emission industries have shifted from technical feasibility to economic feasibility and system coordination for large-scale deployment[4] - Five main constraints identified include: technology deployment pace differences, insufficient low-carbon demand, fragmented policies, infrastructure gaps, and uneven capital allocation[4] - The rise in interest rates and cost inflation has increased the economic viability threshold for low-carbon projects, making financing and policy coordination critical for project implementation[15] Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - In the aviation sector, operational activity is expected to grow by 10.4% in 2024, with emissions increasing to 1.108 billion tons, a rise of 6.4%[8] - The shipping industry will see a 5.5% increase in operational activity, with emissions reaching 0.847 billion tons, up by 2.7%[8] - The cement and steel industries are projected to experience slight decreases in emissions, while sectors like aluminum and basic chemicals will see significant increases in emissions[8] Group 4: Policy and Economic Environment - The global industrial transition exhibits significant regional differentiation, with the EU leading compliance, the US balancing incentives and compliance, and emerging markets developing frameworks[14] - The EU's carbon market is expected to cover over 45% of industrial emissions by 2030, while the US faces policy volatility affecting corporate decision-making[14] - Emerging markets like China and India are accelerating carbon accounting systems, but face challenges in policy maturity and infrastructure development[14] Group 5: Recommendations for Scaling Transition - Establish standardized low-carbon demand mechanisms to enhance the credibility of demand signals and promote public procurement of low-carbon products[23] - Accelerate the construction of shared infrastructure, including integrated energy networks and CO2 transport pipelines, to support large-scale reductions[23] - Innovate financial tools to lower financing costs and support the scaling of frontier technologies like hydrogen and CCUS[24]

（邱跃成，从业资格号：F3060829；交易咨询资格号：Z0016941） 昨日螺纹盘面震荡下跌，截止日盘螺纹2605合约收盘价格为3126元/吨，较上一交易收盘价格下跌17元/ 吨，跌幅为0.54%，持仓减少1.62万手。现货价格小幅下跌，成交维持低位，唐山地区迁安普方坯价格 下跌20元/吨至2930元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格下跌20元/吨至3200元/吨，全国建材成交量6.63万吨。 随着春节临近，各地建筑工程陆续停工，下游用钢需求逐步缩量，市场投机情绪较差，冬储政策逐步落 地，商家普遍对于冬储备货情绪不足。螺纹长流程钢厂仍有一定的利润空间，生产基本正常，螺纹供需 压力有所加大，库存逐步转为累积。不过当前宏观政策不断有宽松预期，钢材出口处于高位，市场预期 也较为稳定。预计短期螺纹盘面价格仍以弱势震荡运行为主。 铁矿石： 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 螺纹钢： （柳浠，从业资格号：F03087689；交易咨询资格号：Z0019538） （孙成震，从业资格号：F03099994；交易咨询资格号：Z0021057） 昨日铁矿石期货主力合约i2605价格有所上涨，收于788元 ...