螺纹：震荡格局延续 区间交易为主 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 2026-02-02 【产业服务总部 | 黑色产业服务中心】 研究员 姜玉龙 执业编号：F3022468 投资咨询号：Z0013681 2月观点：震荡格局延续 区间交易为主 逻辑与策略 1月回顾：1月份，黑色期货价格冲高回落，呈现出"倒V型"走势，较去年12月底稳中有涨，就指数涨跌幅度而言，呈现出焦煤 >焦炭>热卷>螺纹>铁矿格局。宏观方面，市场氛围偏暖，大宗商品价格普涨，而黑色表现平淡。产业方面，1月螺纹钢需求季节性走 弱，产量小幅回升，库存逐步累积，不过目前库存处于近年同期低位水平。 2月展望：宏观方面，全球不确定性加剧，美国对伊朗实施新一轮制裁、美联储新任主席人选影响后期货币政策，短期国内可能 处于政策真空期，产业方面，2月因春节放假，钢材需求回落幅度加大，累库速度会加快，目前钢厂利润尚可，关注产量变化，原料端， 节前下游仍存在一定补库空间，对原料价格有所支撑，不过原料自身供需格局偏宽松。从估值角度来看，目前螺纹钢价格略高于电炉 谷电与长流程成本，估值中性略偏低，预计2月价格涨跌空间都不大，延续震荡格局 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Silver prices may fluctuate greatly in the range of $70 - 110 due to factors such as regulatory restrictions and macro - news sentiment. Before the holiday, institutional ETFs continued to reduce positions and wait and see, leading to a decline in liquidity. It is recommended to wait for market volatility to fall and use methods such as selling options for unilateral positions to lock in risks [1] - Platinum prices will enter a consolidation phase. It is recommended to wait for the market to adjust in place before trying to buy or conduct short - term high - selling and low - buying operations [1] - Due to short - term news and capital sentiment, the volatility risk is relatively large. Pay attention to the support of the 20 - day moving average. Gold can be allocated to buy at - the - money or slightly out - of - the - money call options instead of going long after the market stabilizes. Light - position participation in long gold - silver ratio arbitrage is also recommended [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Domestic Futures Closing Prices - AU2604 contract closed at 1161.42 yuan/gram on January 30, down 87.70 yuan or 7.02% from January 29 [1] - AG2604 contract closed at 27941 yuan/kg on January 30, down 2950 yuan or 9.55% from January 29 [1] - PT2606 contract closed at 714.10 on January 30, up 19.30 or 2.78% from January 29 [1] - PD2606 contract closed at 526.60 yuan/gram on January 30, up 22.60 or 4.48% from January 29 [1] Foreign Futures Closing Prices - COMEX gold main contract closed at 4907.50 on January 30, down 503.30 or 9.30% from January 29 [1] - COMEX silver main contract closed at 85.25 on January 30, down 30.54 or 26.37% from January 29 [1] - NYMEX platinum main contract closed at 2178.20 dollars/ounce on January 30, down 458.70 or 17.40% from January 29 [1] - NYMEX palladium main contract closed at 1701.00 on January 30, down 334.00 or 16.41% from January 29 [1] Spot Prices - London gold was at 4880.03 on January 30, down 497.13 or 9.25% from the previous value [1] - London silver was at 85.26 on January 30, down 30.61 or 26.42% from the previous value [1] - Spot palladium was at 2300.00 dollars/ounce on January 30, down 492.00 or 17.62% from the previous value [1] - Spot rhodium was at 1820.00 on January 30, down 286.00 or 13.58% from the previous value [1] - Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold T + D was at 1163.99 yuan/gram on January 30, down 79.41 or 6.39% from January 29 [1] - Shanghai Gold Exchange's silver T + D was at 27530 yuan/kg on January 30, down 2468 or 8.23% from January 29 [1] - Shanghai Gold Exchange's platinum 9995 was at 638 yuan/gram on January 30, down 9.31% from the previous value [1] Basis - The basis of gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract was 2.57, up 8.29 from the previous value, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 46.10% [1] - The basis of silver TD - Shanghai silver main contract was - 411, up 482 from the previous value, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 60.60% [1] - The basis of London gold - COMEX gold was - 27.47, up 6.17 from the previous value, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 28.70% [1] - The basis of London silver - COMEX silver was 0.01, down 0.07 from the previous value, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 74.10% [1] Price Ratios - The ratio of COMEX gold/silver was 57.57 on January 30, up 10.83 or 23.18% from the previous value [1] - The ratio of SHFE gold/silver was 41.57 on January 30, up 1.13 or 2.80% from the previous value [1] - The ratio of NYMEX platinum/palladium was 1.28 on January 30, down 0.02 or - 1.18% from the previous value [1] - The ratio of GZFE platinum/rhodium was 1.36 on January 30, down 0.02 or - 1.63% from the previous value [1] Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - The 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.26% on January 30, up 0.02 or 0.5% from the previous value [1] - The 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.52% on January 30, down 0.01 or - 0.3% from the previous value [1] - The 10 - year TIPS Treasury yield was 1.90% on January 30, up 0.01 or 0.5% from the previous value [1] - The US dollar index was 97.12 on January 30, up 0.95 or 0.99% from the previous value [1] - The offshore RMB exchange rate was 6.9589 on January 30, up 0.0107 or 0.15% from the previous value [1] Inventory and Positions - The SHFE gold inventory was 103029 on January 30, unchanged from the previous value [1] - The SHFE silver inventory was 455068 (in ten - grams) on January 30, down 26940 or - 5.59% from the previous value [1] - The COMEX gold inventory was 35748596 on January 30, down 128604 or - 0.36% from the previous value [1] - The COMEX silver inventory was 405886807 on January 30, down 2366533 or - 0.58% from the previous value [1] - The COMEX gold registered warehouse receipts were 19038541 ounces on January 30, up 253295 or 1.35% from the previous value [1] - The COMEX silver registered warehouse receipts were 104879945 on January 30, down 3277493 or - 3.03% from the previous value [1] - The SPDR gold ETF position was 1087 tons on January 30, up 0.57 or 0.05% from the previous value [1] - The SLV silver ETF position was 15523 on January 30, unchanged from the previous value [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The demand for precious metals lies in the choice of sovereign funds in the context of de - dollarization. The trends of de - dollarization and reserve diversification continue. The medium - term depreciation of the US dollar and the decline of the near - end yield curve support precious metals. There has been a relatively significant increase in domestic gold warehouse receipts and a relatively significant decrease in US gold warehouse receipts. Domestic and foreign silver warehouse receipts have dropped sharply [2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold AU and Silver AG Viewpoints - The demand for precious metals is due to sovereign funds' choices in the de - dollarization context. De - dollarization and reserve diversification trends are ongoing. The medium - term depreciation of the US dollar and the decline of the near - end yield curve support precious metals. Domestic gold warehouse receipts have risen notably while US gold warehouse receipts have fallen notably, and domestic and foreign silver warehouse receipts have plunged [2][3] Fundamentals - The US released a defense strategy report, prioritizing homeland security and its interests in the Western Hemisphere. The US military convened generals from 34 Western Hemisphere countries to strengthen anti - drug military cooperation. Trump said that Iran is having "serious" talks with the US and hopes to reach an acceptable agreement. US media reported that the US is signaling negotiations with Iran, and the two sides may meet in Turkey. The Federal Reserve paused rate hikes in its January meeting, keeping the interest rate in the 3.5 - 3.75% range. Milan and Waller supported a 25 - basis - point rate cut. Powell reiterated that the interest rate is at the upper end of the neutral range and said that if tariff - related inflation peaks and then falls, it indicates that policy can be loosened. Trump announced the nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed chairman, expecting him to push for rate cuts. The White House is confident that Warsh's nomination will be quickly confirmed [2][3] Gold and Silver Market Overview - One - Week Policy and Fundamental Review - The US Treasury took initial steps to intervene in the foreign exchange market. The US released a defense strategy report and strengthened anti - drug military cooperation in the Western Hemisphere. The US is pressuring Bolivia to expel suspected Iranian spies and discussing similar actions in other countries. The Trump administration is considering a naval blockade on Cuba's oil imports. Trump said the US obtained oil from a seized Venezuelan oil tanker. The Japanese yen suddenly rose nearly 200 points, and Japanese officials are closely monitoring the foreign exchange market. Trump increased the reciprocal tariff rate on South Korea from 15% to 25%. The EU will fully ban the import of Russian liquefied natural gas in January 2027 and Russian pipeline gas by the end of September. The Federal Reserve paused rate hikes, and some officials supported rate cuts. South Korea is expected to discuss a $350 billion investment program with the US. Trump will announce the Fed chairman nominee and called for a 2 - 3 percentage - point rate cut. Trump said Putin agreed to a one - week ceasefire in parts of Ukraine. Iran will conduct live - fire naval exercises in the Strait of Hormuz. The EU listed the Iranian Revolutionary Guard as a "terrorist organization". The US Treasury did not list any economy as a currency manipulator. The World Gold Council said that central banks' net gold purchases in Q4 were 230 tons, and strong gold demand in 2026 is expected to continue. OPEC+ eight member countries will maintain the plan to suspend the increase in oil production in March. The US government entered a partial "shutdown" state, but the House Speaker is confident to end it. SpaceX applied to deploy one million satellites to build an orbital AI data center network [7] Gold and Silver Market Overview - Gold Market Tracking - **COMEX Futures and Options**: The latest long - position of managed funds is 122,450, and the short - position is 35,978. The 5 - day change in the long - position is - 4%, and in the short - position is - 1%. The 1 - week change in the long - position is - 5,556, and in the short - position is 2,599 [8] - **ETF Holdings**: The latest total ETF holding of gold is 1,447 tons, with SPDR's holding at 862 tons and iShares' at 402 tons. The 5 - day changes are - 2% and - 4% respectively [8] - **Futures Positions and Warehouse Receipts**: The latest futures position of gold in Shanghai is 407,927 hands, and the Shanghai warehouse receipt is 3 tons. The 5 - day change in the futures position is 16,492 hands, and the 1 - week change in the warehouse receipt is - 1 ton [8] Gold and Silver Market Overview - Silver Market Tracking - **COMEX Futures and Options**: The latest long - position of managed funds is 44,277, and the short - position is 27,801. The 5 - day change in the long - position is 57, and in the short - position is 58. The 1 - week change in the long - position is - 4,423, and in the short - position is - 4,757 [12] - **ETF Holdings**: The latest total ETF holding of silver is 23,620 tons, and SLV's holding is 13,802 tons. The 5 - day changes are 58 and 78,420 respectively [12] - **Futures Positions and Warehouse Receipts**: The latest futures position of silver in Shanghai is 971,795 hands, and the Shanghai warehouse receipt is 1,075 tons. The 5 - day change in the futures position is 78,420 hands, and the 5 - day change in the warehouse receipt is - 7 tons [12] Gold and Silver Market Overview - Gold and Silver Import Profit Tracking - The import gold hedging profit margin and import silver hedging profit margin are presented in a time - series graph, with data from July 15, 2024, to January 15, 2026 [19] Factors Affecting Precious Metal Price Movements - US Dollar Index Futures Position Tracking - The non - commercial net long - position of the US dollar index and the total futures and options positions of the US dollar index are presented in time - series graphs, with data from July 1, 2025, to January 27, 2026 [21][22][23] Factors Affecting Precious Metal Price Movements - US Treasury Futures Position Tracking - The non - commercial net long - positions of 2 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year US Treasury futures and options, as well as the total futures positions of US Treasuries, are presented in time - series graphs, with data spanning multiple years [26][27] Factors Affecting Precious Metal Price Movements - US Inflation Expectation - The break - even inflation rates for 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year periods are presented in a time - series graph, with data from December 5, 2025, to February 1, 2026 [31] Factors Affecting Precious Metal Price Movements - US Real Interest Rate - The real yield curves of 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year US Treasuries are presented in a time - series graph, with monthly data from March 2006 to September 2025 [33] Factors Affecting Precious Metal Price Movements - US Interest Rate Term Structure - The US Treasury interest rates, inflation expectations (interpolated linearly within the year), and real interest rates (based on PCE, interpolated linearly within the year) for different maturities (1M - 30Y) are presented [35] Factors Affecting Precious Metal Price Movements - 2 - Year Treasury Yield Spreads between the US and Major Non - US Countries - The yield spreads between the 2 - year US Treasury and 2 - year Treasuries of the UK, Japan, China, and Germany are presented in time - series graphs, with data from December 5, 2025, to February 1, 2026 [39]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2026年2月2日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 黄金 1、基本面：特朗普提名沃什出任美联储主席，高位止盈离场重挫黄金；美国三大股 指小幅收跌，欧洲主要股指收盘全线上涨；美债收益率涨跌不一，10年期美债收益 率涨0.62个基点报4.237%；美元指数涨1%报97.1，离岸人民币对美元贬值报 6.9589；COMEX黄金期货跌8.35%报4907美元/盎司；中性 2、基差：黄金期货1161.42，现货1158，基差-2.42，现货贴水期货；中性 3、库存：黄金期货仓单103029 千克，不变；偏空 4、盘面：20日均线向上，k线在20日均线上方；偏多 5、主力持仓： ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 天胶早报- 2026年2月2日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 3 基本面数据 多空因素及主要风险点 4 基差 天胶： 1、基本面：供应开始增加，现货偏强，国内库存开始减少，轮胎开工率高位 中性 2、基差：现货16250，基差-110 偏空 3、库存：上期所库存周环比增加，同比减少；青岛地区库存周环比增加，同比增加 中性 4、盘面：20日线向上，价格20日线上运行 偏多 5、主力持仓：主力净多，多减 偏多 6、预期：市场情绪降温，节前或区间波动 多空因素及主要风险点 • 利多 • 1、下游消费偏高 • 2、现货价格抗跌 • 3、国内反内卷 • 利空 • 1、国内经济指标偏空 • 2、贸易摩擦 • 风险点 • 世界经济衰退、国内经济增长不 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪锌期货早报-2026年2月2日 4、盘面：昨日沪锌震荡回落走势，收20日均线之上,20日均线向上；偏多。 5、主力持仓：主力净多头，多减；偏多。 6、预期：LME库存仓单小幅增加；上期所仓单小幅增加；沪锌ZN2603：震荡 盘整。 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85225791 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 指标体系 沪锌: 1、基本面： 外媒1月21日消息：世界金属统计局（WBMS）公布最新数据显 示，2025年11月，全球锌板产量为119.7万吨,消费量为116.8万吨,供应过剩 2.9万吨.1-11月,全球锌板产量为1275.61万吨,消费量为1310.65万吨,供应 短缺35.04万吨.11月份,全球锌矿产量为106.9万吨.1-11月,全球锌矿产量为 1214.19万吨；偏多。 2、基差：现货25800，基差- ...

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report - Report Date: February 2, 2026 - Analyst: Zhu Tianyi from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [2][3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to fluctuate today. The suspension of OPEC's production increase in Q1 and geopolitical factors affecting oil prices provide strong cost support, while industrial inventories are neutral [4][7] LLDPE Analysis Fundamental Analysis - The official manufacturing PMI in January was 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, falling into the contraction range. OPEC+ decided to suspend the production increase plan in Q1 2026 due to weak seasonal demand. Geopolitical disturbances in Iran have led to a strong crude oil trend, driving up the polyolefin market. Near the Spring Festival, the demand for agricultural films and packaging films is weak. The current LLDPE delivery spot price is 6940 (+60), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4] Basis Analysis - The basis of the LLDPE 2605 contract is -74, with a premium/discount ratio of -1.1%, indicating a bearish signal [4] Inventory Analysis - The comprehensive PE inventory is 348,000 tons (-31,000), indicating a bullish signal [4] Market Analysis - The 20-day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20-day line, indicating a bullish signal [4] Main Position Analysis - The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, and the short position is increasing, indicating a bearish signal [4] Expectation - The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate today [4] Factors Affecting the Market - Bullish factors: cost support and crude oil rebound - Bearish factors: weak downstream demand year-on-year - Main logic: oversupply, sensitive to marginal changes in supply and demand [6] PP Analysis Fundamental Analysis - Similar to LLDPE, the official manufacturing PMI in January was 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, falling into the contraction range. OPEC+ decided to suspend the production increase plan in Q1 2026 due to weak seasonal demand. Geopolitical disturbances in Iran have led to a strong crude oil trend, driving up the polyolefin market. PDH device maintenance is frequent. Near the Spring Festival, the demand for plastic weaving and pipes is weak. The current PP delivery spot price is 6750 (+0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [7] Basis Analysis - The basis of the PP 2605 contract is -74, with a premium/discount ratio of -1.1%, indicating a bearish signal [7] Inventory Analysis - The comprehensive PP inventory is 401,000 tons (-32,000), indicating a bullish signal [7] Market Analysis - The 20-day moving average of the PP main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20-day line, indicating a bullish signal [7] Main Position Analysis - The net position of the PP main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, indicating a bearish signal [7] Expectation - The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate today [7] Factors Affecting the Market - Bullish factors: cost support and crude oil rebound - Bearish factors: off-season downstream demand - Main logic: oversupply, sensitive to marginal changes in supply and demand [9] Market Data Spot and Futures Prices - LLDPE: The spot delivery price is 6940 (+60), and the 05 contract price is 7014 (-35) - PP: The spot delivery price is 6750 (+0), and the 05 contract price is 6824 (-46) [10] Inventory Data - LLDPE: The warehouse receipt is 9379 (-19), and the comprehensive PE factory inventory is 348,000 tons - PP: The warehouse receipt is 17236 (0), and the comprehensive PP factory inventory is 401,000 tons [10] Supply and Demand Balance Sheets Polyethylene - From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polyethylene have generally shown an upward trend, while the import dependence has gradually decreased. The expected production capacity in 2025E is 43.195 million tons, with a growth rate of 20.5% [15] Polypropylene - From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polypropylene have generally shown an upward trend, while the import dependence has gradually decreased. The expected production capacity in 2025E is 49.06 million tons, with a growth rate of 11.0% [17]

• 1. 基本面：当前日产及开工率同比处高位，随检修回归预计开工将继续回升，综合库存回落， 去库形态较明显。需求端，虽临近春节但订单需求尚可，农业储备需求、贸易需求均良好，工业 需求方面，复合肥、三聚氰胺开工回升明显。出口内外价差大，近期下游需求尚可，国内尿素整 体仍供过于求。交割品现货1770（+0），基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： UR2605合约基差-20，升贴水比例-1.1%，偏空； • 3. 库存：UR综合库存108.9万吨（+0.9），中性； • 4. 盘面： UR主力合约20日均线向上，收盘价位于20日线上，偏多； • 5. 主力持仓：UR主力持仓净空，减空，偏空； • 6. 预期：尿素主力合约盘面震荡，预计开工继续回升，下游订单尚可，储备需求有所提升， 库存去库，预计UR今日走势震荡 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2026-2-2 大越期货投资咨询部 朱天一 从业资格证号：F3020542 投资咨询证号： Z0021831 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪镍&不锈钢早报—2026年2月2日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资：F3023048 投资咨询证：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 沪镍 每日观点 1、基本面：上周镍价震荡走弱，周五更是随着金银铜等大幅回落，现货整体成交一般。供应方面，前 期减产的产能开始恢复生产，进口货源陆续到货，印尼寒锐镍板也有大量提供，市场供应充足。产业 链上，镍矿看涨情绪较浓重，菲律宾与印尼都有强支撑。镍铁价格继续上涨，成本线上升。不锈钢库 存开始回升，要注意库存回升之后不锈钢价格或有反转。精炼镍库存持续高位，过剩格局不变。新能 源汽车产销数据良好，但总体镍需求提振有限。偏空 2、基差：现货146150，基差6150，偏多 3、库存：LME库存286284，-186，上交所仓单46876，+22，偏空 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线以下，20均线向上，偏多 5、主力持仓：主力持 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant decline in various domestic commodity futures, particularly in precious metals, due to international price drops [4][6]. - As of February 2, the Shanghai silver futures contract hit the limit down, with platinum down 16% and palladium down over 15%, while Shanghai gold fell over 12% [4][6]. - Other non-precious metals such as Shanghai tin, nickel, copper, and aluminum also experienced substantial declines, with Shanghai tin down 11% and Shanghai nickel down 8.31% [5][6]. Group 2 - The Shanghai Gold Exchange announced adjustments to the margin levels and price limits for silver deferred contracts due to significant price volatility [6]. - If a one-sided market occurs, the margin level for the Ag (T+D) contract will increase from 20% to 26%, and the price fluctuation limit will change from 19% to 25% starting from the next trading day [6][7]. - Members are advised to enhance risk awareness and prepare emergency risk management plans to ensure market stability [8].