Group 1: Macro Economic Insights - The overall inflation in the US has started to rebound, with May CPI increasing by 2.4% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month, while core CPI rose by 2.8% year-on-year and 0.1% month-on-month, indicating a potential upward trend in inflation despite core inflation remaining stable [6][7][8] - Energy inflation continues to be negative, with energy prices decreasing by 3.5% year-on-year in May, while food prices increased by 2.9% year-on-year, suggesting a shift in inflation contributions towards core goods [7][8] - The impact of tariffs on inflation is expected to become more pronounced, with less than 30% of companies opting not to pass on costs to consumers, indicating a potential for sustained inflationary pressure [8][9] Group 2: Agriculture and Livestock Industry - In May, the release of large pigs has put pressure on prices, with the average selling price of live pigs at 14.61 yuan/kg, down 1.31% month-on-month and 7.49% year-on-year, indicating a bearish outlook for pig prices in the short term [12][13] - The structure of pig sales shows an increase in the proportion of large pigs being sold, with the proportion of pigs over 150kg at 4.94%, slightly higher than the same period last year, suggesting a shift in supply dynamics [13] - The average selling price of major listed pig companies decreased in May, with prices ranging from 14.02 to 14.87 yuan/kg, reflecting a downward trend across the board [15] Group 3: Communication Industry Insights - The launch of the Doubao large model 1.6 has seen a significant increase in token usage, with daily usage exceeding 16.4 trillion tokens, a 137-fold increase since its release, indicating strong demand for AI applications [17][18] - The Doubao model has been upgraded to support multi-modal understanding and has been adopted by major industries, with 80% of mainstream automotive companies integrating the model into their systems [18][19] - The report highlights the importance of the AIDC computing power industry chain, recommending focus on seven key areas including AI chip production and cloud computing platforms, suggesting a robust growth outlook for the sector [19]

巨星农牧在2024年年度报告中表示，公司将持续聚焦生猪养殖主航道，2025年公司规划商品猪出栏量目 标设定在400万头以上，同时将商品猪完全成本控制在6.5元/斤以内。凭借不断创新升级的养殖技术优 势和智能化管理水平，公司养殖效率将稳步提升，养殖成本有望持续优化。未来，巨星农牧有望以管理 迭代和技术创新实现高质量发展和可持续成长，坚持紧密型"公司+农户"模式联农带农促进农民就业增 收，通过提效节粮助力实现国家粮食安全战略，力争为推进乡村全面振兴创造更多价值。 2024年，巨星农牧实现营业收入60.78亿元，同比增长50.43%；实现归母净利润5.19亿元，盈利能力显 著改善。在行业向标准化、规模化、智能化发展的大趋势中，公司多措并举提升经营管理质量和技术研 发水平，科学规划养殖产能布局，创新提质促进增效降本，强化动物疫病防治工作，联农带农深入推进 乡村全面振兴。巨星农牧积极响应设施农业现代化提升行动，以生猪养殖产能新建项目、养殖技术研究 基地建设项目等项目推动建设标准规范、装备先进、产出高效的现代化养殖设施。同时，公司积极探索 实施智慧农业建设工程，以数字智能化建设项目加速赋能生猪养殖设施向数字化、智能化转型 ...

农林牧渔 2025 年 06 月 12 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -29% -19% -10% 0% 10% 19% 29% 2024-06 2024-10 2025-02 农林牧渔 沪深300 相关研究报告 《生猪降重或进一步抬升 2025H2 猪 价，供给收缩及需求支撑驱动牛价稳 步上移—行业周报》-2025.6.8 ——行业点评报告 | 陈雪丽（分析师） | 王高展（联系人） | 朱本伦（联系人） | | --- | --- | --- | | chenxueli@kysec.cn | wanggaozhan@kysec.cn | zhubenlun@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790520030001 | 证书编号：S0790123060055 | 证书编号：S0790124060020 | 行业：5 月大猪出栏释放，2025H2 猪价不悲观 情绪催化大猪出栏致 5 月猪价承压，供给压力前置释放叠加缺口传导将至， 2025H2 猪价不悲观。据涌益咨询，2025 年 5 月全国生猪销售均价 14.61 元/公斤， 环比-1.31%，同比-7.49%。涌益监控样本 ...

Core Viewpoint - The pork industry is facing significant pressure due to declining prices, with various companies reporting decreased sales revenue and a potential shift in policy aimed at stabilizing prices and improving profitability in the sector [1][2][3]. Group 1: Company Performance - In May, TianKang Biological (002100) sold 229,700 pigs, generating sales revenue of 345 million yuan, with an average selling price of 14.02 yuan/kg [1]. - From January to May, TianKang Biological sold a total of 1.2851 million pigs, a year-on-year increase of 12.49%, with cumulative sales revenue of 1.902 billion yuan, up 4.22% from the previous year [1]. - Despite low pork prices, TianKang Biological managed to keep its breeding costs below 13 yuan/kg, allowing for profitability even with market prices at 14.02 yuan/kg [2]. Group 2: Industry Trends - As of June 10, the wholesale price of pork has dropped to 20.3 yuan/kg, a decrease of 9.21% since the end of last year and nearly 27% from the peak in August of the previous year [1]. - The national pig-to-grain price ratio has been declining, falling from 7.95 yuan/kg to 6.29 yuan/kg, nearing the warning line for excessive decline [1]. - The government has initiated a reserve mechanism, with a plan to store 10,000 tons of frozen pork, marking the first storage action since 2025 [2]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Analysts predict that if recent policies to stabilize pork prices are fully implemented, the pig farming industry could return to normal profitability by 2025, with cost-competitive companies likely to achieve excess returns [2]. - The overall valuation of the pig farming sector is at historical lows, with the Shenyin Wanguo pig farming sector's price-to-earnings ratio below the 10th percentile historically [3]. - TianKang Biological's current rolling P/E ratio is 12.45, the lowest in the pig farming sector, indicating potential for growth as the market stabilizes [3].

Core Viewpoint - In May, both large-scale and medium-sized pig farming sectors experienced an increase in breeding sow inventory, with trends aligning between the two groups. However, as pig prices decline and profitability shrinks, changes in inventory levels may continue to reflect similar patterns in June [1][6][7]. Group 1: Breeding Sow Inventory - In May, the national breeding sow inventory increased month-on-month, with large-scale farms showing a shift from negative to positive growth, while medium-sized farms saw a narrowing increase [3][4]. - The increase in large-scale breeding sow inventory is attributed to ongoing expansion activities, including clearing and replanting, as well as replenishing stocks affected by previous pig diseases [3][4]. - Medium-sized farms faced a decline in piglet transaction enthusiasm and prices, leading to a more cautious approach, which resulted in a slower growth rate in breeding sow inventory [3][4]. Group 2: Pig Inventory - The national pig inventory also saw a month-on-month increase in May, with large-scale farms experiencing a narrowing growth rate while medium-sized farms shifted from a decrease to an increase [4][6]. - The average weight of pigs traded in May showed a slight decline, which, combined with falling prices and rising temperatures, led to reduced confidence among farmers, particularly in large-scale operations [4][6]. - Medium-sized farms benefited from lower costs for secondary fattening and feed, contributing to an increase in pig inventory as they did not sell off previously fattened pigs before the Dragon Boat Festival [4][6]. Group 3: Outlook for June - In June, piglet prices are expected to decline further, with many regions seeing prices drop below 500 yuan per head, and southern regions experiencing pig prices falling below the cost line of 14 yuan per kilogram [6][7]. - As profitability continues to decrease, both large-scale and medium-sized farms may adjust their strategies, with large farms potentially reducing weight and production to avoid losses, while medium-sized farms may accelerate the culling of breeding sows [6][7]. - Despite the anticipated decline in breeding sow inventory by the end of June, the decrease is expected to be limited due to ongoing expansion activities in certain regions [7].

Group 1 - The current supply-demand situation in the pig market shows a high enthusiasm for pig sales from the breeding end, while demand remains weak, prompting the government to initiate pork reserve storage [1][2] - The National Pork Reserve policy serves as an important tool in stabilizing supply and prices in the pig industry, with the recent storage action being the first significant one this year [1][2] - The average price of external three yuan pigs as of June 10 was 14.01 yuan/kg, reflecting a decline of approximately 0.8 yuan/kg since the May Day holiday, indicating a weak price trend due to supply-demand imbalance [3][4] Group 2 - The government initiated temporary pork reserve storage due to continuous declines in pig prices and shrinking breeding profits, with the pig-to-grain ratio indicating a need for intervention [2][4] - The current breeding profit per pig is estimated at 80.10 yuan, a significant drop from over 400 yuan in the same period last year, highlighting the financial pressure on large pig enterprises and the impact on small breeders [4][5] - The "insurance + futures" projects have been implemented to support small breeders, with 17 projects launched this year, safeguarding 250,000 pigs against market price fluctuations [5]

Group 1 - The A-share pig farming sector saw significant gains, with stocks like Zhenghong Technology hitting the daily limit and Shennong Group rising over 7% [1] - On June 9, the National Storage Network announced the first round of central reserve frozen pork storage for the year, with a quantity of 10,000 tons [1] - The average price of pigs in China has been declining, with a reported price of 14.78 yuan/kg in the first week of June, down 0.4% from the previous week, marking six consecutive weeks of decline [1][2] Group 2 - As of April, the number of breeding sows in China was 40.38 million, a year-on-year increase of 1.3%, remaining above the normal target of 39 million [2] - The expected profit for pig farming has dropped significantly, with a current estimate of 80.1 yuan per head, down over 65% from the high of 229.99 yuan per head at the beginning of the year [2] - Cost control has become a critical focus for pig farming companies, with TianKang Biological reporting a breeding cost of 13 yuan/kg and a selling price of 14.32 yuan/kg, indicating a clear profit margin [2] Group 3 - The stock prices of pig farming companies have generally risen since the announcement of the frozen pork storage, with an average increase of 4.09% in June, outperforming the CSI 300 index by over 2 percentage points [3] - Some stocks in the pig farming sector remain undervalued, with an average price-to-book ratio of 2.66 times, while TianKang Biological and Dongrui shares have ratios below 1.5 times [3] - TianKang Biological is expanding its international business, having shipped 56 tons of high-quality feed products to Uzbekistan, marking its entry into the international market [3] Group 4 - Twelve stocks have received ratings from five or more institutions, with Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and Haida Group leading in institutional coverage [4] - Predictions indicate that ten stocks are expected to see net profit growth by 2025, with Huazhong Holdings, New Wufeng, New Hope, and Dabeinong projected to have growth rates exceeding 100% [4]

Summary of Conference Call on Swine Industry Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the swine industry, focusing on the supply and demand dynamics, pricing trends, and production strategies for 2025 [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments Supply and Demand Dynamics - Due to policy impacts, there has been a reduction in secondary fattening and restocking, but farmers are reluctant to sell, leading to high barn utilization rates, especially in Northeast, Henan, and Shandong provinces [1]. - The average weight of pigs is expected to increase significantly in the first half of 2025, resulting in greater supply pressure [1][6]. - The expected increase in slaughter volume from mid-June to mid-July may slightly alleviate supply pressure, but overall price trends are downward [1][7]. Pricing Trends - Current profitability for commodity pigs is approximately 160 RMB per head, while profitability for piglets ranges from 460 to 480 RMB [1][13]. - The average price of pigs is projected to remain between 14 to 15 RMB per kilogram in the first half of 2025, with industry average costs around 13.5 RMB, leading to an average profit of about 200 RMB per head [2]. - A significant price drop is anticipated, with projections suggesting prices could fall to 13.5 RMB per kilogram by mid-July [17]. Production Strategies - Major enterprises are implementing weight reduction strategies to manage supply and stabilize prices, with a focus on gradual adjustments rather than abrupt changes [8][9]. - The trend of weight reduction is expected to continue through July, with a potential rebound in prices due to reduced supply and seasonal factors [14]. - The expansion of breeding sow capacity among leading enterprises has stabilized, with a slight increase expected in 2024 due to anticipated demand for piglets in 2025 [10]. Market Sentiment and Future Expectations - The sentiment among large-scale producers is cautious, with many not willing to expand sow capacity despite current profitability [19][20]. - The market is expected to experience fluctuations, with potential price rebounds in late July due to reduced supply and seasonal demand [14][16]. - The possibility of government intervention exists if prices fall below 14 RMB per kilogram, as seen in previous instances [16][17]. Additional Insights - The secondary fattening process has seen a significant impact, with leading enterprises halting sales of pigs intended for this purpose, leading to a stalemate in the market [3]. - The collaboration between breeding farms and fattening companies is increasing, driven by the need for stable piglet supply and cost reduction [24][25]. - The overall industry faces challenges in managing sow capacity, particularly in light of past rapid expansions following African swine fever outbreaks [18]. Conclusion - The swine industry is navigating a complex landscape of supply pressures, pricing challenges, and strategic production adjustments. The focus remains on managing weight reductions and anticipating market fluctuations while considering policy impacts and market sentiment.

Group 1 - Libet has received approval from the China Securities Regulatory Commission for the issuance of convertible bonds, valid for 12 months [1] - Dinglong plans to acquire an additional 8% stake in its subsidiary, increasing its ownership from 91.35% to 99.35% for a total price of 240 million yuan [1] - Longyuan Donggu has been designated as a supplier for a major automotive project, with an expected total sales amount of 450 to 500 million yuan over five years [14] Group 2 - Luoniushan reported a sales revenue of 100 million yuan in May, a year-on-year decrease of 11.45% [2] - Baoming Technology has secured a loan commitment of up to 7 million yuan for stock repurchase [2] - Xinhua Pharmaceutical has received approval for the listing of a new chemical raw material used in treating chronic heart failure and hypertension [3] Group 3 - China Minmetals announced a new contract amount of 396 billion yuan for the first five months of the year, a decrease of 22.2% year-on-year [7] - Zhongbei Communication's application for a specific stock issuance has been accepted by the Shanghai Stock Exchange [8] - Rongfa Nuclear Power plans to issue bonds not exceeding 1 billion yuan to repay debts and supplement working capital [9] Group 4 - Phoenix Optical plans to invest 8.5 million USD to establish a wholly-owned subsidiary in Vietnam for manufacturing optical products [11] - Xiamen Airport reported a passenger throughput of 2.4752 million in May, a year-on-year increase of 8.34% [12] - Weilan Biological has received a new veterinary drug registration certificate for a product aimed at treating canine allergies and inflammation [13] Group 5 - Shouxiangu has completed the registration of a health food product that claims to enhance immunity [13] - Xingye Yinxin's subsidiary has passed a resource reserve verification report, confirming significant mineral reserves [16] - Shaanxi Construction has won two major projects with a total contract value exceeding 2.8 billion yuan [18] Group 6 - Huari received a cash dividend of 50 million yuan from its subsidiary [20] - Zhongchu's deputy general manager has resigned due to governance arrangements [21] - Kexin Pharmaceutical's core product has received breakthrough therapy designation from the National Medical Products Administration [39]

Core Viewpoint - The private economy is a driving force for China's modernization and a cornerstone for high-quality development, with financial support for the real economy, especially agriculture, being emphasized in recent policies [2]. Group 1: Company Initiatives - Muyuan Foods, a leader in the pig farming industry, has actively participated in the bond market's "Technology Board" initiative, showcasing a model for real enterprises to engage in capital markets [2][3]. - The company issued its first technology innovation bond on May 9, 2023, with a scale of 300 million yuan, a term of 270 days, and a coupon rate of 1.95%, which was well-received by investors [3][5]. - The issuance of the technology bond is significant as it marks the first of its kind for a pig farming enterprise, creating a model for an "agriculture-technology-finance" closed-loop system [3][4]. Group 2: Financial and Regulatory Support - The bond issuance process was expedited by the trading association, which opened a "green channel" for compliance review and issuance, reflecting regulatory support for agricultural technology innovation [4]. - The main underwriter, CITIC Bank, established a dedicated service team to facilitate the bond issuance, resulting in a lower financing cost for the company [5]. Group 3: Technological Innovation - Muyuan Foods has invested over 20 billion yuan in research and development over the past five years, focusing on various technologies related to breeding, feed nutrition, health management, and smart farming [6]. - The company has developed smart farming equipment that optimizes feed allocation and environmental control, significantly enhancing production efficiency and reducing costs [6][7]. - As of May 2025, the total cost of pig farming for Muyuan is projected to drop to approximately 12.2 yuan per kilogram, the lowest in recent years, indicating successful cost management through innovation [7]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Muyuan Foods aims to explore multiple financing channels to support its innovative development needs and continue advancing in smart farming, green energy, and digital agriculture [8]. - The company is committed to enhancing its creditworthiness and sustainable development to ensure successful financing in the future [7].