Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In August, the price of industrial silicon will be based on the cost after the cancellation of electricity price subsidies. The resumption of production in the southwest region will be the marginal driving factor, and the overall price center may rise slightly, but there is also a possibility of a significant downward pressure after low expectations. For polysilicon, the policy expectations have peaked, and the valuation has reached a bottleneck. The market's attention has shifted to the industrial supply pressure and weak demand structure. The spot price is anchored to the cost, and the futures center follows the premium of high - quality warehouse receipts. The dynamic news of capacity integration gives the futures market a phased premium. Continuously track the opportunity of shorting SI and going long on PS during the concentrated integration of polysilicon capacity and the resumption of production rhythm of industrial silicon in the southwest region [2]. Group 3: Summaries According to the Directory 1. Futures Price - In July, the industrial silicon futures fluctuated strongly. As of the 31st, the main contract 2509 closed at 8,860 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 9.18%. The polysilicon futures fluctuated upward, and the main contract 2509 closed at 49,130 yuan/ton within the month, with a monthly increase of 46.5% [4]. 2. Spot Price - The spot price continued to recover. The Baichuan reference price was 9,592 yuan/ton. Among them, the price of non - oxygenated 553 increased by 350 yuan/ton to 8,700 yuan/ton, the price of oxygenated 553 increased by 950 yuan/ton to 9,300 yuan/ton, and the price of 421 increased by 1,250 yuan/ton to 9,750 yuan/ton. The price of P - type polysilicon increased by 4,800 yuan/ton to 35,000 yuan/ton, and the price of N - type polysilicon increased by 11,800 yuan/ton to 45,800 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Spread - In July, the spread between 553 grades widened, the spread between high and low grades widened, the regional spread of 553 widened, and the regional spread of 421 widened. The industrial silicon spot changed from a discount to a premium of 390 yuan/ton, and the polysilicon spot changed from a premium to a discount of 3,135 yuan/ton [4][16]. 4. Supply - According to Baichuan, it is estimated that the domestic industrial silicon production in July was 352,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 24% and a month - on - month increase of 6.6%. The monthly number of open furnaces increased by 47 to 262, and the furnace opening rate increased by 5.9% to 32.9%. In July, the polysilicon production increased by 9,400 tons to 105,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 26% and a month - on - month increase of 9.8%. The DMC production in July increased by 20,500 tons to 207,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 34.2% and a month - on - month increase of 11% [2][4]. 5. Demand - Under the anti - involution policy, new capacity investment has stagnated, but the backlog of inventory has not been significantly reduced. After the inventory of downstream silicon wafers decreased, enterprises began to accept price increases and enter the market to purchase. Due to the sudden shutdown and maintenance of a large organic silicon factory in Shandong, the overall supply of monomer plants continued to shrink. Affected by the previous low prices, there were many pre - sale orders. Recently, influenced by the upstream price increase and the psychology of "buying on rising" of downstream customers, the purchase volume continued to improve marginally, and the inventory pressure of monomer plants was relieved [2]. 6. Inventory - In terms of the exchange, the overall inventory of industrial silicon decreased by 9,000 tons to 253,000 tons in July, while the polysilicon inventory increased by 14,100 tons to 92,100 tons. In terms of social inventory, the industrial silicon inventory increased by 5,400 tons to 442,900 tons in July, among which the factory inventory increased by 5,900 tons to 271,400 tons; the inventory at Huangpu Port remained stable at 55,000 tons, the inventory at Tianjin Port remained stable at 68,000 tons, and the inventory at Kunming Port decreased by 500 tons to 48,500 tons. The monthly inventory of polysilicon increased by 5,600 tons to 27,540 tons [2][4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious approach towards the upstream industrial silicon and polysilicon sectors, with a potential for price corrections. It recommends short - selling industrial silicon on rallies, and a short - term short or intraday short strategy for polysilicon [1][7] Core Viewpoints - Industrial silicon prices are affected by upstream factory复产 rhythms. If there is large - scale复产, the supply - demand balance will shift to oversupply, driving the price down. Polysilicon is policy - driven, but there is a short - term correction drive. The price transmission from upstream to downstream is not smooth [6][7] Summary by Related Content Price Trends - Industrial silicon futures showed a weak oscillation this week, with the Friday closing price at 8,500 yuan/ton. Spot prices also declined, with Xinjiang 99 - silicon at 9,050 yuan/ton (down 450 yuan week - on - week) and Inner Mongolia 99 - silicon at 9,350 yuan/ton (down 400 yuan week - on - week). Polysilicon futures rose and then fell, closing at 49,200 yuan/ton on Friday, and the spot market had weak transactions [1] Supply - Demand Fundamentals Industrial Silicon - Supply: Sichuan's production increased, while Xinjiang's decreased. Overall weekly production increased marginally. Yunnan's复产 was slow. The futures warehouse receipts increased by 0.4 million tons this week, social inventory increased by 0.5 million tons, and factory inventory decreased by 0.6 million tons, resulting in overall inventory reduction [2] - Demand: Downstream short - term demand was stable. Polysilicon's weekly production increased, boosting the purchase of industrial silicon. Organic silicon's weekly production also increased, but its terminal consumption had limited improvement. The aluminum alloy and export markets had no significant increase in demand [3] Polysilicon - Supply: Short - term weekly production continued to increase, with an estimated production of 120,000 - 130,000 tons in August. Factory inventory decreased due to speculative restocking by downstream buyers [3] - Demand: After the profit of silicon wafers was restored, production increased slightly in August compared to July. However, the price increase transmission from upstream to downstream was not smooth, and the acceptance of component price increases by end - users was yet to be observed [5] Market Outlook Industrial Silicon - Attention should be paid to the upstream factory复产 rhythm. The increase in futures warehouse receipts may affect market sentiment. If there is large - scale复产, the supply - demand balance will shift to oversupply, driving the price down. It is recommended to short - sell on rallies, with an expected price range of 8,200 - 9,000 yuan/ton next week [6][7] Polysilicon - The short - term market sentiment has cooled down, and there is a correction drive. The price transmission from upstream to downstream is not smooth. It is a policy - driven market, and the long - term strategy is to buy on dips, while short - term shorting or intraday shorting may be more appropriate. The expected price range next week is 46,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton [7] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Short - sell industrial silicon on rallies; for polysilicon, short - term shorting or intraday shorting [7] - Inter - period: Consider entering a reverse spread position for PS2509/PS2511 based on futures warehouse receipt registration [8] - Hedging: Recommend upstream industrial silicon and polysilicon factories to sell for hedging [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights China's competitive edge in the global green industry, particularly in photovoltaic products, new energy vehicles, and lithium batteries, while also addressing the emerging "involution" competition within the industry chain [1] Group 1: Conference Overview - The conference titled "2025 China Silicon Industry Conference" will focus on "Technological Innovation and Green Transformation, Industry Self-discipline for Harmonious Development" [2] - The event is scheduled for September 10-12, 2025, in Baotou, Inner Mongolia [2] - The conference is organized by the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, with several co-organizers from the silicon material sector [2][3] Group 2: Agenda Highlights - The agenda includes a high-level dialogue session featuring industry leaders discussing development trends and self-discipline [4] - Keynote speeches will cover topics such as the current state and outlook of China's silicon industry, opportunities and challenges in the renewable energy market, and future trends in the crystalline silicon photovoltaic industry [4] - A market and technology report session will focus on industrial silicon and polysilicon futures [4][8] Group 3: Participation and Costs - Registration for the conference is free, with specific benefits for member units, including complimentary materials and meal vouchers [5] - Non-member units and excess personnel from member units will incur a fee of 2000 yuan per set for materials and meal vouchers [5] - A registration link is provided for participants to sign up [6]

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - On July 30, polysilicon hit the daily limit again, with the main contract 2509 closing at 54,705 yuan/ton, an intraday increase of 8.87%, and the open interest increasing by 22,849 lots to 164,000 lots. The price of N-type recycled polysilicon increased to 46,500 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon material also rose to 46,500 yuan/ton, with the spot discount widening to 8,085 yuan/ton. Industrial silicon strengthened in a volatile manner, with the main contract 2509 closing at 9,285 yuan/ton, an intraday increase of 2.2%, and the open interest decreasing by 33,993 lots to 243,000 lots. The reference price of Baichuan's industrial silicon spot was 9,630 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 silicon dropped to 9,450 yuan/ton, and the spot premium narrowed to 125 yuan/ton [2]. - The market has been spreading news about capacity mergers and acquisitions, and the Photovoltaic Industry Association has clarified some news. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has once again emphasized consolidating the comprehensive governance results against involution and promoting the governance of key industries such as photovoltaics to force out backward production capacity through standard improvement. Polysilicon was boosted by the news again, and industrial silicon was driven up by polysilicon [2]. - Currently, policies still support the market, but after the pre - speculative demand is fulfilled, the sentiment has cooled down, and there is insufficient momentum to break through the previous high again. After the exchange adjusted the margin and handling fees, investors should avoid heavy - position chasing up or selling short. They should appropriately pay attention to the inter - month reverse spread space and the PS/SI price ratio arbitrage, as well as the resumption of production in the southwest region and the progress of policies [2]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon** - Futures settlement prices: The main contract increased from 9,085 yuan/ton on July 29 to 9,345 yuan/ton on July 30, a rise of 260 yuan/ton; the near - month contract increased from 8,995 yuan/ton to 9,325 yuan/ton, a rise of 330 yuan/ton [4]. - Spot prices: The prices of various grades of industrial silicon generally increased, with the increase ranging from 0 to 200 yuan/ton. The current lowest deliverable price increased from 9,250 yuan/ton to 9,450 yuan/ton, and the spot premium decreased from 255 yuan/ton to 125 yuan/ton [4]. - **Polysilicon** - Futures settlement prices: The main contract increased from 50,805 yuan/ton on July 29 to 54,705 yuan/ton on July 30, a rise of 3,900 yuan/ton; the near - month contract increased from 50,805 yuan/ton to 54,585 yuan/ton, a rise of 3,780 yuan/ton [4]. - Spot prices: The prices of various types of polysilicon increased, with the increase ranging from 1,000 to 10,000 yuan/ton. The current lowest deliverable price increased from 44,500 yuan/ton to 46,500 yuan/ton, and the spot discount widened from 6,305 yuan/ton to 8,085 yuan/ton [4]. - **Organic Silicon** - The prices of DMC in the East China market, raw rubber, and 107 glue remained unchanged at 12,500 yuan/ton, 13,500 yuan/ton, and 13,000 yuan/ton respectively, while the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased from 13,000 yuan/ton to 14,500 yuan/ton, a rise of 1,500 yuan/ton [4]. - **Inventory** - Industrial silicon: The warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 50,082 tons. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory decreased from 251,965 tons to 248,550 tons, a decrease of 3,415 tons. The social inventory decreased by 300 tons to 442,600 tons [4]. - Polysilicon: The warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 3,070 tons. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased from 83,400 tons to 90,600 tons, an increase of 7,200 tons. The social inventory remained unchanged at 272,000 tons [4]. 2. Chart Analysis - **Industrial Silicon and Cost - end Prices** - Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade price differences, regional price differences, electricity prices, silica prices, and silicon coal prices [5][7][10]. - **Downstream Product Prices** - Charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [12][13][15][16]. - **Inventory** - Charts present the industrial silicon futures inventory, factory inventory, weekly industry inventory, weekly inventory changes, DMC weekly inventory, and polysilicon weekly inventory [20][22]. - **Cost and Profit** - Charts show the average cost and profit levels in major production areas, weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, profit of the aluminum alloy processing industry, DMC cost - profit, and polysilicon cost - profit [25][27][31]. 3. Team Introduction - The research team consists of Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi. Zhan Dapeng is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with more than ten years of commodity research experience. Wang Heng focuses on aluminum and silicon research, and Zhu Xi focuses on lithium and nickel research [33][34].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply increased last week, demand remained weak, and costs in Xinjiang showed reduced support during the wet season. The 2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 9090 - 9480 yuan/ton. The overall fundamental situation is bearish [6]. - For polysilicon, the supply continues to increase, while the demand shows a short - term decline in wafer production but a medium - term recovery expectation. The battery and component production shows a continuous decline. The 2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 53400 - 56010 yuan/ton. The overall fundamental situation is bearish [9][10][11]. - The main bullish factors are cost increase support and manufacturers' plans for production cuts and shutdowns. The main bearish factors are the slow recovery of post - holiday demand and the strong supply and weak demand in the downstream polysilicon market. The main logic is that the supply - demand mismatch leads to a difficult - to - change downward trend [14][15]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Daily Views Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week, the supply was 78,000 tons, a 1.30% week - on - week increase [6]. - Demand: Last week, the demand was 71,000 tons, a 4.05% week - on - week decrease. The demand remains sluggish [6]. - Cost: In Xinjiang, the production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 2027 yuan/ton, and the cost support weakened during the wet season [6]. - Basis: On July 30, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9750 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was 465 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is bullish [6]. - Inventory: The social inventory was 535,000 tons, a 2.19% week - on - week decrease; the sample enterprise inventory was 177,500 tons, a 2.57% week - on - week increase; the main port inventory was 120,000 tons, remaining unchanged week - on - week, which is bearish [6]. - Disk: The MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed above the MA20, which is bullish [6]. - Main position: The main position is net short, and the short position increased, which is bearish [6]. - Expectation: The supply scheduling decreases and remains at a low level, the demand recovery is at a low level, and the cost support increases. The industrial silicon 2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 9090 - 9480 yuan/ton [6]. Polysilicon - Supply: Last week, the production was 25,500 tons, a 10.86% week - on - week increase. The scheduled production in July is expected to be 106,800 tons, a 5.74% month - on - month increase [9]. - Demand: The wafer production last week was 11.2 GW, a 0.90% week - on - week increase. The wafer inventory was 178,700 tons, a 11.54% week - on - week increase, and the wafer production is currently at a loss. The scheduled production in July is 52.2 GW, a 11.28% month - on - month decrease. The battery production in June was 56.19 GW, a 6.73% month - on - month decrease. The external sales factory inventory of battery cells last week was 5.33 GW, a 46.37% week - on - week decrease, and the battery production is currently at a loss. The scheduled production in July is 54.52 GW, a 2.97% month - on - month decrease. The component production in June was 46.3 GW, a 10.61% month - on - month decrease. The expected component production in July is 45.45 GW, a 1.83% month - on - month decrease. The domestic monthly inventory is 24.76 GW, a 51.73% month - on - month decrease, and the European monthly inventory is 30.5 GW, a 20.77% month - on - month decrease. The component production is currently profitable [10]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 36,390 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 9,110 yuan/ton [10]. - Basis: On July 30, the price of N - type dense material was 45,500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was - 8205 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is bearish [12]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory was 243,000 tons, a 2.40% week - on - week decrease, remaining at a high level in the same period of history, which is neutral [12]. - Disk: The MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed above the MA20, which is bullish [12]. - Main position: The main position is net long, and the long position increased, which is bullish [12]. - Expectation: The supply scheduling continues to increase, the demand shows a short - term decline in wafer production but a medium - term recovery expectation, the battery and component production shows a continuous decline. The overall demand shows a recovery but may be weak in the future. The cost support remains stable. The polysilicon 2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 53400 - 56010 yuan/ton [11]. 2. Fundamental/Position Data - Industrial silicon: The report provides detailed data on prices, inventories, production, and cost - profit of different contracts and specifications of industrial silicon, as well as the production, inventory, and cost - profit data of its downstream organic silicon and aluminum alloy industries [18]. - Polysilicon: The report provides detailed data on prices, production, inventory, and cost - profit of polysilicon and its downstream wafers, battery cells, and components [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Views Industrial Silicon - In the second half of the year, the industrial silicon industry is in a cycle of accelerating the exit of backward production capacity and will enter the de - stocking process. The supply pressure will be continuously released with the implementation of production plans in Southwest China during the wet season. The downstream demand is expected to strengthen, but if the integration of the photovoltaic industry makes substantial progress, it may suppress the demand for industrial silicon in the future. Overall, the price of industrial silicon will show a wide - range oscillation trend [4]. Polysilicon - In the second half of the year, the polysilicon market is at a stage where the fundamental logic and the "anti - involution" logic alternate. From the fundamental perspective, the expected reduction in electricity prices and the expansion of profits may prompt enterprises to increase production capacity, while the demand increment in the second half of the year is limited, and the inventory pressure is high. From the "anti - involution" logic, effective integration agreements or coordinated production - reduction measures may improve the industry situation and drive up prices [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon Futures Data - The closing price of the industrial silicon futures main contract is 9285 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.09% and a weekly decline of 2.52%. The SI2511 contract's closing price is 9280 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.11% and a weekly decline of 0.91%. The SI09 - 11 month - spread is 5 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 93.75% and a weekly decline of 96.88% [16][18]. Spot Data - The prices of 553 and 421 industrial silicon in various regions have increased to varying degrees. For example, the price of East China 553 is 10000 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 2.04%. The East China 421 - 553 spread is 250 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 28.57% [20]. Basis and Warehouse Receipts - The total number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts is 50082 hands, a decrease of 0.98% from the previous period. The warehouse receipts in some delivery warehouses have also changed, such as a 3.57% decrease in the Xinjiang delivery warehouse [28]. Polysilicon Futures Data - The closing price of the polysilicon futures main contract is 54705 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 7.68% and a weekly increase of 9.24%. The PS2511 contract's closing price is 54880 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 7.73% and a weekly increase of 10.30%. The PS09 - 11 month - spread is - 175 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 29.63% and a weekly decline of 153.85% [31][34]. Spot Data - The prices of N - type polysilicon and its various specifications remain unchanged. The N - type polysilicon price index is 44.7 yuan/kg. The price of N - type silicon wafers has increased, with the N - type silicon wafer price index rising to 1.2 yuan/piece, a 5% increase [38][40]. Basis and Warehouse Receipts Data - The basis of the polysilicon main contract is - 10005 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 63.88% and a weekly increase of 65.92%. The total number of polysilicon warehouse receipts is 3070, remaining unchanged [44][47]. Risk Management Strategy Recommendations - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high product inventory and inventory impairment risks, they can short futures, sell call options, and buy out - of - the - money put options to lock in profits and prevent inventory impairment [2]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with production plans and the risk of rising raw material prices, they can buy forward futures contracts, sell put options, and buy out - of - the - money call options to lock in procurement costs [2].

Core Viewpoint - The industrial silicon spot prices experienced fluctuations, initially declining before stabilizing, with a notable decrease in the main contract closing price by 4.18% over the past week [1] Price Trends - The main contract closing price fluctuated from 9690 CNY/ton to 9285 CNY/ton during the week of July 24-30, 2025 [1] - The national average price for industrial silicon is reported at 9378 CNY/ton, with a slight increase of 0.08% [2] - Regional prices show stability, with specific prices such as 9298 CNY/ton in Xinfei and 10122 CNY/ton in Yunnan [2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply remains stable in northern regions, while southern regions show increased operational enthusiasm, leading to an overall increase in production [1] - Demand from downstream sectors, including organic silicon monomer plants and polysilicon manufacturers, is expected to see a slight increase, supporting industrial silicon prices [1] - The overall supply-demand balance is expected to remain tight, with both supply and demand increasing, leading to a forecast of price fluctuations in August [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - For industrial silicon, the market has a bearish sentiment due to factors such as over - supply, weak demand, and high inventory levels. The price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9160 - 9540 [6]. - For polysilicon, although the supply is increasing, the demand shows signs of recovery but may be weak in the future. The price is expected to fluctuate between 49545 - 52065 [11][12]. - The main logic is that the supply - demand mismatch leads to an oversupply situation, and the downward trend is difficult to change. There are also some influencing factors such as cost support and production reduction plans [16]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week, the supply was 78,000 tons, a 1.30% increase from the previous week [6]. - Demand: The demand was 71,000 tons, a 4.05% decrease from the previous week, and demand remained sluggish. Polysilicon and organic silicon inventories were at high levels, and the aluminum alloy ingot inventory was also high [6]. - Cost: In Xinjiang, the production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 was 2027 yuan/ton, and the cost support weakened during the wet season [6]. - Basis: On July 29, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9600 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was 250 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - Inventory: The social inventory was 535,000 tons, a 2.19% decrease from the previous week; the sample enterprise inventory was 177,500 tons, a 2.57% increase; the main port inventory was 120,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week [6]. - Disk: MA20 was upward, and the price of the 09 contract closed above MA20 [6]. - Main position: The main position was net short, with short positions decreasing [6]. - Expectation: Supply production scheduling decreased and remained at a low level, demand recovery was at a low level, cost support increased slightly. The industrial silicon 2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 9160 - 9540 [6]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - Supply: Last week, the production was 25,500 tons, a 10.86% increase from the previous week. The estimated production in July was 106,800 tons, a 5.74% increase from the previous month [9]. - Demand: Last week, the silicon wafer production was 11.2GW, a 0.90% increase from the previous week, but the inventory increased by 11.54%. The current production was in a loss state. In July, the production scheduling decreased. The battery cell production continued to decrease, and the component production also decreased. However, overall demand showed some recovery but may be weak in the future [10][11]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry was 36,390 yuan/ton, and the production profit was 9110 yuan/ton [10]. - Basis: On July 29, the price of N - type dense material was 45,500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was - 4305 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [13]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory was 243,000 tons, a 2.40% decrease from the previous week, at a high level in the same period of history [13]. - Disk: MA20 was upward, and the price of the 09 contract closed above MA20 [13]. - Main position: The main position was net long, with long positions decreasing [13]. - Expectation: The polysilicon 2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 49545 - 52065 [12]. 3.2 Industrial Silicon Market Overview - Futures closing price: Most contracts showed an upward trend, with an increase of about 4 - 5% [19]. - Spot price: The prices of some silicon products decreased slightly, while the price of East China organic silicon - used 421 silicon remained unchanged [19]. - Inventory: The weekly social inventory was 535,000 tons, a 2.19% decrease from the previous week; the sample enterprise inventory increased, and the main port inventory remained unchanged [19]. 3.3 Polysilicon Market Overview - Futures closing price: Most contracts showed an upward trend [21]. - Spot price: The prices of most silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained unchanged [21]. - Inventory: The weekly silicon wafer inventory decreased, and the photovoltaic cell export inventory decreased significantly [21]. 3.4 Other Related Content - The report also includes the price - basis and delivery product price difference trends, inventory, production and capacity utilization trends, component cost trends, cost - profit trends, and supply - demand balance sheets of industrial silicon, as well as the market trends of organic silicon, aluminum alloy, and polysilicon downstream industries [23][27][31]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply increased last week, demand was persistently low, and the market was affected by factors such as high inventories and weak cost - support during the flood season. It is expected to oscillate between 8735 - 9095 [6]. - For polysilicon, supply production scheduling continued to increase, demand showed some recovery but might be weak later, and cost support remained stable. It is expected to oscillate between 48190 - 50620 [9][11][12]. - The main logic is that capacity mismatch leads to strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change. There are also factors like cost - upward support and manufacturers' shutdown and production - reduction plans [16]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Views Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week's supply was 78,000 tons, a 1.30% increase from the previous week [6]. - Demand: Last week's demand was 71,000 tons, a 4.05% decrease from the previous week, with continued low demand. Polysilicon, organic silicon, and aluminum alloy ingot inventories were at high levels [6]. - Cost: In Xinjiang, the production loss of sample oxygen - permeated 553 was 2,027 yuan/ton, and cost support weakened during the flood season [6]. - Basis: On July 28, the spot price of non - oxygen - permeated silicon in East China was 9,700 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was 785 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - Inventory: Social inventory was 535,000 tons, a 2.19% decrease; sample enterprise inventory was 177,500 tons, a 2.57% increase; and major port inventory was 120,000 tons, unchanged [6]. - Disk: MA20 was upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed above MA20 [6]. - Main Position: The main position was net short, with a decrease in short positions [6]. - Expectation: Supply production scheduling decreased and remained at a low level, demand recovery was at a low level, cost support increased slightly, and it is expected to oscillate between 8735 - 9095 [6]. Polysilicon - Supply: Last week's production was 25,500 tons, a 10.86% increase from the previous week, and the estimated production scheduling for July was 106,800 tons, a 5.74% increase from the previous month [9]. - Demand: Last week's silicon wafer production was 11.2GW, a 0.90% increase; battery cell and component production showed different trends in production and inventory changes. Overall, demand showed some recovery but might be weak later [10]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon materials in the industry was 36,170 yuan/ton, and the production profit was 9,330 yuan/ton [10]. - Basis: On July 28, the price of N - type dense materials was 45,500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was - 2905 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [13]. - Inventory: Weekly inventory was 243,000 tons, a 2.40% decrease, remaining at a high level compared to the same period in history [13]. - Disk: MA20 was upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed above MA20 [13]. - Main Position: The main position was net long, with a decrease in long positions [13]. - Expectation: It is expected to oscillate between 48190 - 50620 [12]. 2. Fundamental/Position Data Industrial Silicon - Price: Futures contract prices generally declined. For example, the 09 contract price decreased from 9,725 yuan/ton to 8,915 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.33%. Spot prices of different types of silicon also showed declines [19]. - Inventory: Social inventory decreased, sample enterprise inventory increased, and major port inventory remained unchanged [19]. - Basis: The basis of some contracts changed, with the 09 contract basis at 785 yuan/ton on July 28 [6]. Polysilicon - Price: Futures contract prices decreased, and prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components showed different changes. For example, the price of N - type 182mm silicon wafers increased by 4.55% [21]. - Inventory: Weekly inventory decreased, and domestic and European component inventories also decreased [21]. - Basis: The basis of the 09 contract was - 2905 yuan/ton on July 28 [21].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply increased last week while demand decreased and remained sluggish. Cost support in Xinjiang weakened during the wet season. The 2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 9550 - 9900 yuan/ton. Factors such as supply - demand, basis, inventory, and market trends are considered, with a complex balance of positive and negative factors [6]. - For polysilicon, supply production is expected to increase, while demand shows signs of recovery but may be weak in the future. Cost support is stable. The 2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 49830 - 52220 yuan/ton. There are also mixed positive and negative factors in basis, inventory, and other aspects [11]. - The main logic is that capacity mismatch leads to a supply - strong and demand - weak situation, and the downward trend is difficult to change. There are also factors such as cost increase support and slow post - holiday demand recovery [15]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Daily Views Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week, the supply was 78,000 tons, a 1.30% increase from the previous week [6]. - Demand: Last week, the demand was 71,000 tons, a 4.05% decrease from the previous week. Demand in downstream sectors such as polysilicon, organic silicon, and aluminum alloy remained low [6]. - Cost: In Xinjiang, the production loss of sample oxygen - blown 553 was 2027 yuan/ton, and cost support weakened during the wet season [6]. - Basis: On July 25th, the spot price of non - oxygen - blown silicon in East China was 9850 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was 125 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - Inventory: Social inventory was 535,000 tons, a 2.19% decrease from the previous week; sample enterprise inventory was 177,500 tons, a 2.57% increase; and major port inventory was 120,000 tons, remaining unchanged [6]. - Expectation: The 2509 contract of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate between 9550 - 9900 yuan/ton [6]. Polysilicon - Supply: Last week, the production was 25,500 tons, a 10.86% increase from the previous week. The estimated production in July is 106,800 tons, a 5.74% increase from the previous month [9]. - Demand: Last week, the silicon wafer production was 11.2 GW, a 0.90% increase from the previous week. However, the production of battery cells and components shows a downward trend overall, and the overall demand shows signs of recovery but may be weak in the future [10]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 36,170 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 9330 yuan/ton [10]. - Basis: On July 25th, the price of N - type dense material was 45,500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was - 4525 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [12]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory was 243,000 tons, a 2.40% decrease from the previous week, remaining at a historically high level [12]. - Expectation: The 2509 contract of polysilicon is expected to fluctuate between 49830 - 52220 yuan/ton [11]. 2. Fundamental/Position Data - Industrial silicon price data shows the changes in prices and price differences of different contracts and spot products, as well as the changes in inventory and production data of different regions and ports [18]. - Polysilicon price data shows the price changes of different products such as silicon wafers, battery cells, and components, as well as the changes in production, inventory, and import - export data [20]. Other Data and Trends - Industrial silicon price - basis and delivery product price difference trends show the historical trends of basis and price differences over the years [23]. - Industrial silicon inventory trends show the historical trends of inventory in different regions and ports [26]. - Industrial silicon production and capacity utilization trends show the historical trends of production and capacity utilization in different regions [30]. - Industrial silicon component cost trends show the historical trends of costs such as electricity prices, silica prices, and graphite electrode prices in different regions [35]. - Industrial silicon cost - sample region trends show the historical trends of cost and profit in different sample regions [37]. - Industrial silicon weekly and monthly supply - demand balance sheets show the supply - demand balance data of different time periods [39][42]. - Industrial silicon downstream - organic silicon data shows the price, production, import - export, and inventory trends of DMC and its downstream products [45][47]. - Industrial silicon downstream - aluminum alloy data shows the price, supply, inventory, production, and demand trends in the aluminum alloy market [53][57]. - Industrial silicon downstream - polysilicon data shows the cost, price, inventory, production, and supply - demand balance trends of polysilicon and its downstream products such as silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [63][66]. - Industrial silicon downstream - polysilicon - component composition cost - profit trends show the cost - profit trends of 210mm components [80]. - Industrial silicon downstream - polysilicon - photovoltaic grid - connected power generation trends show the trends of new power generation capacity, power generation composition, and new grid - connected capacity in the photovoltaic field [84].