Trade Relations - The meeting between President Trump and Canadian Prime Minister Carney focused on trade issues, with Trump announcing plans to impose tariffs on Canada, which he believes Canada will accept willingly [1][2] - The trade relationship between the U.S. and Canada, valued at $900 billion, is under significant strain due to ongoing tariff disputes [3] - Canada’s exports to the U.S. have dropped to their lowest level since 2021, while imports have returned to 2022 levels, indicating a decline in trade activity [4] Tariffs and Economic Impact - U.S. tariffs on steel, aluminum, automobiles, and lumber are severely impacting key Canadian industries, leading to job losses and a slowdown in business investment [4] - Trump increased tariffs on non-compliant goods under the USMCA from 25% to 35%, exacerbating the trade conflict [4] - Carney's government has attempted to ease tensions by canceling most retaliatory tariffs on U.S. products, focusing only on sectors still affected by U.S. tariffs [4] Future Agreements and Cooperation - Carney aims to negotiate a short-term agreement to lower or eliminate certain industry tariffs, with a focus on collaboration in various sectors [4] - The Canadian government is also preparing for the 2026 review of the North American Free Trade Agreement, indicating a long-term strategy for trade relations [4] - In response to U.S. criticisms regarding defense spending, Canada has committed to reaching NATO's defense spending target of 2% of GDP this year, with plans to increase it to 5% by 2035 [5]

特朗普在会谈中形容两国"天然存在竞争"，因为双方都希望在制造业领域占据优势。"他想造汽车，我 们也想造汽车，我们在竞争。而我们的优势在于拥有一个庞大的国内市场。"不过，特朗普也表示双方 在谈判中"已经取得显著进展"，称"我们正在研究各种方案，我认为我们终将达成协议"。 加拿大负责对美贸易事务的部长Dominic LeBlanc当天在记者会上指出，本次会谈"比以往更具实质 性"。他透露，两国领导人已指示官员在钢铁、铝和能源等关键领域"尽快敲定协议"，并以此为契机推 动更广泛的关税谈判，但LeBlanc拒绝就谈判时间给出具体期限。 这次访问是卡尼自今年初出任总理以来第二次造访白宫。目前，美加两国间的贸易往来规模高达9,000 亿美元。曾任加拿大央行行长的卡尼在4月竞选中承诺，将重新谈判一项覆盖贸易与安全的双边协议。 然而自他上任以来，特朗普反而提高了对加拿大商品的关税。 智通财经APP获悉，美国总统特朗普周二在白宫椭圆形办公室会见加拿大总理卡尼时表示，美国与加拿 大"最终能够达成贸易协议"，但未透露具体的达成时间表或谈判路径。 尽管特朗普在会晤中称赞卡尼是"一位世界级领袖"，美国官员依然暗示不会在关键产业上做出太 ...

Core Viewpoint - The trade dynamics between the US and China have shifted, with the US showing unexpected compromises despite its historical position as a dominant economic power [1][12]. Economic Comparison - According to purchasing power parity, China's economic scale has surpassed that of the US, indicating that significant value creation is occurring in China [4]. - In 2024, China's GDP is projected to be 189.4 trillion USD, while the US GDP is 291.8 trillion USD, highlighting the economic scale difference [8]. - China's industrial production capabilities are unmatched globally, with steel production accounting for half of the world's output and aluminum nearly 60% [3][7]. Trade and Tariff Impacts - The US initially believed that imposing tariffs would force China to concede, but the outcome resulted in increased costs for American consumers and businesses [10][12]. - The trade conflict has led to significant disruptions in the US supply chain, affecting retail and manufacturing sectors, which in turn has caused price increases for everyday goods [10][13]. Strategic Resource Control - China's control over critical resources, such as rare earth elements, poses a significant challenge to the US, particularly in its military and high-tech industries [15]. - The US's attempts to limit technology transfers to China have backfired, as China's strategic responses have highlighted its importance in global supply chains [10][15]. Global Economic Landscape - The current economic landscape emphasizes the importance of industrial production and supply chain control over traditional financial dominance [16][18]. - The shift in power dynamics indicates that the ability to rapidly scale production and meet market demands is now a key determinant of economic strength, with China emerging as the clear leader in this regard [18].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed's expected rate cut is driving up gold prices, with the market pricing in an 88% probability of a rate cut in October. Global central banks' strong gold - buying trend and geopolitical risks also support gold prices [3]. - Copper prices soared last week due to the unexpected halt at Grasberg Copper Mine, and there is a short - term over - increase [18]. - Aluminum prices are in a short - term tug - of - war due to mixed demand signals. Alumina is in an oversupply situation, while casting aluminum alloy is trading based on fundamentals with a mixed outlook. All three may show short - term positive sentiment [38][39][40]. - Zinc supply is in surplus, and the market shows a pattern of strong external and weak internal prices in terms of inventory. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [64]. - The nickel industry is affected by various factors such as government sanctions, cost increases, and supply - demand dynamics in different segments. Prices in different parts of the chain show different trends [80]. - Tin prices are likely to fluctuate due to the short - term supply - tight situation and weak demand [95]. - Carbonate lithium futures prices are expected to fluctuate before the National Day holiday, supported by potential downstream demand growth [110]. - The industrial silicon market will maintain a "strong expectation, weak reality" pattern, and polysilicon prices are volatile [122]. Summaries Based on Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price Influencing Factors**: Fed rate - cut expectations, global central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical risks support gold prices. The market anticipates an 88% chance of a rate cut in October, and 2025 central bank gold purchases may exceed 900 tons [3]. Copper - **Price Movement**: Copper prices rose significantly last week because of the unexpected halt at Grasberg Copper Mine, and there is short - term over - increase. The recovery time of the mine is longer than previously expected [18]. - **Market Data**: The latest prices of Shanghai copper futures and spot copper show different degrees of change, and inventory data also change [19][24]. Aluminum - **Aluminum**: Short - term price movements are affected by demand changes and potential positive sentiment from industry policies. The inventory decreased by 21,000 tons on Thursday [38]. - **Alumina**: It is in an oversupply situation, but short - term downward profit space may be limited due to factors such as cost and industry policies [39]. - **Casting Aluminum Alloy**: It is trading based on fundamentals, with mixed supply - demand factors leading to short - term price stability [40]. Zinc - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Supply is in surplus, with domestic mines having a price advantage and overseas mines increasing production. Demand shows a pattern of strong external and weak internal prices in terms of inventory [64]. - **Market Data**: Zinc futures and spot prices change, and inventory data also show different trends [65][73]. Nickel - **Industry Situation**: The nickel industry is affected by government sanctions, cost increases, and supply - demand dynamics in different segments. Nickel iron prices are falling, and stainless steel inventory is accumulating [80]. - **Market Data**: The prices of nickel and stainless steel futures and spot show different degrees of change, and inventory data also change [81]. Tin - **Price Outlook**: Tin prices are likely to fluctuate due to short - term supply - tightness and weak demand, and the impact of macro factors has decreased [95]. - **Market Data**: Tin futures and spot prices change, and inventory data also show different trends [96][101]. Carbonate Lithium - **Price Forecast**: Carbonate lithium futures prices are expected to fluctuate before the National Day holiday, supported by potential downstream demand growth [110]. - **Market Data**: Futures and spot prices of carbonate lithium change, and inventory data also show different trends [111][116]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Outlook**: The industrial silicon market will maintain a "strong expectation, weak reality" pattern, and polysilicon prices are volatile. Attention should be paid to production cuts in the southwest and policy implementation [122]. - **Market Data**: Industrial silicon futures and spot prices change, and inventory data also show different trends [122].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: ★★ (Long - term holding) [1] - Silver: ★★ (Holding positions over the holiday) [1] - Copper: ★★ (Long - term holding) [1] - Zinc: ★ (Rebound) [1] - Lead: ★ (Weak) [1] - Tin: ★★ (Strong) [1] - Aluminum: ★ (Rebound under pressure) [1] - Nickel: ★ (Rebound under pressure) [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★ (Rebound) [1] - Polysilicon: ★ (Cautiously bullish) [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★ (Wide - range oscillation) [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The risks such as the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the US government shutdown, along with the dovish statements of Fed officials, support the long - term investment value of gold and silver. The long - term bullish logic for gold and silver remains unchanged, but short - term risks need to be noted [1][3][4]. - The copper market is affected by factors such as supply contraction expectations and strategic resource attributes. It is recommended to take different strategies for short - term and long - term investments [1][6][7]. - The zinc market shows a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand in the long - term. It is advisable to be cautious during the holiday and maintain the view of shorting on rebounds [1][10][11]. - The lead market is currently in a short - term weak trend due to factors such as the resumption of production of lead enterprises and weak downstream demand [1]. - The tin market has a strong upward trend due to supply disruptions and supported terminal consumption [1]. - The aluminum market faces challenges such as reduced overseas bauxite arrivals and unsmooth destocking, resulting in a rebound under pressure [1][14]. - The nickel market has a situation of over - supply in refined nickel and uncertain downstream consumption of stainless steel, so it is recommended to wait and see [1][18][19]. - The industrial silicon market has a situation of reduced supply and increased downstream stocking, with short - term cost support and high inventory coexisting [1]. - The polysilicon market has production uncertainties in October, but strong policy expectations support the price [1]. - The lithium carbonate market has increasing production and continuous destocking. It is expected to fluctuate widely, and attention should be paid to the support of the 60 - day moving average [1][22][23]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Conditions**: Gold and silver have reached new highs, supported by risk events such as the US government shutdown and the Russia - Ukraine conflict [2][3]. - **Logic**: In the long - term, gold will benefit from global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar's credit, and the reconstruction of the geopolitical pattern. Silver follows the trend of gold and is also supported by other metal sentiments and strong demand [3][1]. - **Strategy**: Long - term multi - orders can be held over the holiday, and short - term multi - orders should be held lightly. Pay attention to short - term sentiment fluctuations if the US fiscal bill is resolved [4]. Copper - **Market Conditions**: Shanghai copper has reached a new high this year, with an increase in the closing price of the main contract and changes in various indicators such as inventory and price differentials [5][6]. - **Logic**: The supply of copper concentrates is tight, and the supply contraction expectation of the copper smelting industry is increasing. High copper prices suppress demand, and the domestic social inventory has increased [6][7]. - **Strategy**: Short - term speculative multi - orders are recommended to take profit and prepare for empty or light positions during the holiday. Long - term strategic multi - orders can be held, and industrial selling hedging should be actively arranged [7]. Zinc - **Market Conditions**: Shanghai zinc has stopped falling and rebounded, with changes in price, trading volume, inventory, and other indicators [9][10]. - **Logic**: The supply of zinc concentrates is relatively loose in 2025. Domestic zinc ingot social inventory has decreased, and the risk of soft squeezing in LME zinc continues. However, in the long - term, supply will increase and demand will decrease [10][11]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to be empty or hold light positions during the holiday. In the long - term, maintain the view of shorting on rebounds [11]. Aluminum - **Market Conditions**: Aluminum prices have rebounded under pressure, and alumina has shown a relatively weak trend [13]. - **Logic**: Overseas bauxite arrivals are expected to decrease, domestic aluminum ingot destocking is not smooth, and downstream processing industry start - up rates have slightly increased [14]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to go long on dips in the short - term, paying attention to the changes in the start - up rate of downstream processing enterprises [15]. Nickel - **Market Conditions**: Nickel prices have rebounded, and stainless steel has slightly recovered [17]. - **Logic**: The impact of the political situation in Indonesia on nickel ore supply is limited. The supply of refined nickel is in excess, and the downstream consumption of stainless steel is uncertain [18]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see for nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to the improvement of downstream consumption [19]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Conditions**: The main contract LC2511 opened low and went high, with the late - session gains narrowing [21]. - **Logic**: Supply has not significantly contracted, demand has released positive signals, and the total inventory has been decreasing for 7 consecutive weeks [22]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the support of the 60 - day moving average in the range of [73500 - 75000] [23].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Shenhua Co., Ltd. has shown a positive stock performance with a year-to-date increase of 23.03% and a recent increase of 6.15% over the last five trading days [1] - As of September 30, the stock price reached 20.18 CNY per share, with a market capitalization of 45.392 billion CNY [1] - The company's main business revenue composition includes 69.40% from electrolytic aluminum, 14.11% from coal, and smaller contributions from aluminum foil and other segments [1] Group 2 - As of September 20, the number of shareholders increased to 71,100, with an average of 31,612 circulating shares per person [2] - For the first half of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 20.428 billion CNY, a year-on-year growth of 12.12%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 16.62% to 1.904 billion CNY [2] - The company has distributed a total of 9.422 billion CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 5.843 billion CNY distributed in the last three years [3]

Group 1: Precious Metals - The main trend of gold and silver continues to rise, with COMEX gold increasing by 1.89% and COMEX silver by 6.92% this week [1][2] - The strong performance of precious metals is supported by robust US GDP data, which led to a temporary adjustment followed by a recovery in upward momentum [2] - The expectation of a slow bull market for gold with decreasing volatility in the future is noted, alongside a positive outlook for the precious metals sector due to ongoing de-dollarization and ETF inflows [2] Group 2: Copper - Supply disruptions are expected to elevate the price center for copper, with Freeport Indonesia lowering its Q4 copper production guidance to "negligible levels" and reducing the 2026 annual production forecast by 35% [2] - The global electrolytic copper balance may reverse by late Q4 2025 or early Q1 2026, with domestic consumption expected to rise as the peak season approaches, potentially boosting copper prices [2] Group 3: Aluminum - The outlook for aluminum prices remains positive despite a slight decline of 0.24% this week, with expectations of increased downstream consumption due to seasonal factors [3] - The impact of US aluminum tariffs is considered limited, and the long-term view suggests that the price center for electrolytic aluminum may continue to rise as inventories are depleted [3] Group 4: Lithium - Lithium prices have seen a slight increase driven by pre-holiday stocking, with demand expected to maintain high growth due to significant contracts signed by major companies [4] - The supply-demand balance for lithium is anticipated to improve marginally, with strategic importance highlighted by government discussions regarding lithium projects [4] Group 5: Uranium - Uranium prices have surged to $83 per pound, primarily due to continued purchasing by SPUT funds, indicating the start of an upward cycle [4] - The fourth quarter is historically a peak procurement season, with expectations for sustained price increases as nuclear power operators begin to purchase [4] Group 6: Cobalt - Cobalt prices are expected to maintain an upward trend following the implementation of export bans in the Democratic Republic of Congo, despite initial market reactions [4] - The market is adjusting to the new policies, with significant price increases observed across various cobalt products, indicating a tightening supply situation in China [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the macro - economic situation at home and abroad, as well as the market conditions of aluminum, zinc, and tin in the fourth quarter of 2025. Overseas, the US economic growth momentum is weakening, and the eurozone shows a mild recovery. Domestically, the economy is in a state of fluctuating recovery, and domestic demand needs policy support. In the non - ferrous metals market, the prices of different metals are affected by various factors such as supply, demand, and macro - policies, and each has different price trends and investment outlooks [4][55][56]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro: Fed Restarts Preventive Rate Cut, Domestic Economy Awaits Policy Drive Market Operation Logic - **US**: Economic growth momentum is weakening, with the manufacturing sector in a contraction zone and the service sector being the main economic support. The labor market is deteriorating, inflation is showing a slight rebound, and the Fed cut interest rates in September. The market expects a high probability of a rate cut in October, but future policies will depend on employment and inflation data [19][20][21]. - **Eurozone**: The manufacturing sector is under pressure again, while the service sector drives a mild economic recovery. Inflation is stable, and the ECB kept interest rates unchanged in September [28][29][30]. - **Domestic**: Investment growth momentum is insufficient, with infrastructure, manufacturing, and real estate investment facing challenges. Consumption shows weakening recovery momentum, but may pick up in the fourth quarter. Exports and imports maintain stable growth, and prices are expected to gradually recover [35][40][45]. Market Trend Judgment - Overseas: The US economic growth momentum is weakening, and the eurozone is in a mild recovery. The Fed may cut interest rates in October, and the ECB will be cautious about further rate cuts [55]. - Domestic: Investment growth momentum is declining, but infrastructure and manufacturing investment may stabilize and grow in the fourth quarter. Consumption may recover mildly, and exports and imports are expected to continue to grow. Prices are expected to gradually recover [56]. Later Concerns/Risk Factors Overseas economic trends, monetary policy changes, US tariff policy evolution, overseas geopolitical risks, domestic incremental policies, and terminal demand conditions [59]. Aluminum: Peak Season Drives Inventory Reduction, Focus on the Strength of "Silver October" Market Operation Logic - **Price Trend in Q3 2025**: The price of Shanghai aluminum fluctuated. In July, it first rose and then fell; in August, it remained high; in September, it rose first and then fell [61][62]. - **Cost Side**: Bauxite prices may show a weak - oscillation trend in the short term, and alumina prices are expected to continue to decline. The cost of electrolytic aluminum is expected to decline slightly [66][72][76]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The operating capacity remains high, and the import loss is expanding [78][80]. - **Scrap Aluminum**: The price difference between refined and scrap aluminum has narrowed, and the industry is greatly affected by policies [82]. - **Demand Side**: The processing end shows a phased recovery, and the terminal demand is differentiated. The real estate market is still in adjustment, while the power, automotive, and other industries support demand [87][90][94]. - **Supply - Demand Balance and Inventory**: Inventory has decreased, providing support for aluminum prices [96]. Market Trend Judgment In the short term, aluminum prices are strongly supported at high levels during the peak season, but there is room for adjustment after the peak season. The price range in the fourth quarter is expected to be between 19,800 - 20,000 for support and 21,000 - 21,500 for resistance [100]. Later Concerns/Risk Factors Macro - policy games, overseas event disturbances, mine resumption and shipping conditions, inventory trends, and actual terminal demand performance [102]. Zinc Ingot: High Supply Meets Structural Demand, Inventory Pressure Needs to be Verified in Peak Season Market Operation Logic - **Price Trend in Q3 2025**: Zinc prices first rose and then fell. In the off - season, supply pressure was high, and demand was weak. In September, prices were supported by the peak season and interest - rate cut expectations but then adjusted [104][106][107]. - **Zinc Concentrate**: New production capacity is being released, and the resource shortage is gradually easing. Domestic and foreign processing fees are expected to diverge, and the import loss is expanding [108][112][116]. Market Trend Judgment In October, zinc prices are expected to continue to fluctuate, with a reference range of 21,500 - 22,500 yuan/ton [8]. Later Concerns/Risk Factors No specific information provided in the given text. Tin Ingot: Probability of Overseas Supply Increase, Risk of Price Center Decline Market Operation Logic - **Supply Side**: The resumption of production in Myanmar's Wa State is the key factor. The delay in mining progress has affected smelter operations, and processing fees are at a low level [9]. - **Demand Side**: The semiconductor, automotive, and home appliance industries support tin demand, but the growth rate may slow down in the fourth quarter [9]. Market Trend Judgment Tin prices may decline from high - level oscillations in the fourth quarter, mainly depending on the increase in production in Myanmar's Wa State [9]. Later Concerns/Risk Factors No specific information provided in the given text.

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform" [2] Core Views - The report indicates that the supply-demand reversal is expected to lead to an upward shift in copper prices, with a long-term price target above $10,500 per ton [6] - Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, are expected to continue their upward trend, with gold rising by 1.89% and silver by 6.92% in the recent week [5] - The report highlights that cobalt prices are likely to maintain an upward trend due to the implementation of export policies in the Democratic Republic of Congo [8] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the industry is at 6752.28, with a weekly high of 6795.38 and a low of 4280.14 [2] Price Movements - Basic metals saw LME copper increase by 2.09%, while aluminum decreased by 1.01% and zinc by 0.41% [20] - Precious metals experienced significant gains, with COMEX gold up by 1.89% and silver up by 6.92% [20] - Lithium carbonate prices saw a slight increase of 0.14% [20] Inventory Changes - Global visible copper inventory decreased by 3,021 tons, aluminum by 4,929 tons, and zinc by 8 tons [36][38] - Nickel inventory increased by 990 tons [38] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Shengda Resources, Xingye Silver Tin, Chifeng Gold, Shenhuo Co., and Zijin Mining for potential investment opportunities [9]

Core Viewpoint - Tianshan Aluminum has shown significant stock performance with a year-to-date increase of 49.64%, reflecting strong market interest and financial growth [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Tianshan Aluminum reported revenue of 15.328 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.19%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.084 billion yuan, up 0.51% year-on-year [2]. - Cumulative cash dividends since the company's A-share listing amount to 6.562 billion yuan, with 3.463 billion yuan distributed over the past three years [3]. Stock Market Activity - As of September 29, Tianshan Aluminum's stock price reached 11.48 yuan per share, with a trading volume of 300 million yuan and a market capitalization of 53.404 billion yuan [1]. - The stock has experienced a 3.89% increase over the last five trading days, a 15.03% increase over the last 20 days, and a 34.43% increase over the last 60 days [1]. Shareholder Information - As of June 30, 2025, the number of shareholders increased to 49,700, with an average of 83,175 circulating shares per shareholder, a decrease of 4.25% from the previous period [2]. - Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited is the seventh-largest circulating shareholder, holding 113 million shares, down by 10.084 million shares from the previous period [3]. Business Overview - Tianshan Aluminum, established on November 3, 1997, and listed on December 31, 2010, specializes in the production and sale of primary aluminum, aluminum deep-processing products, prebaked anodes, high-purity aluminum, and alumina [1]. - The company's revenue composition includes 65.26% from aluminum ingots, 24.20% from alumina, 6.89% from aluminum foil and foil materials, 2.10% from high-purity aluminum, and 1.55% from other sources [1].