Group 1 - The construction industry is advocating against "involution" competition, aiming for industry transformation [2] - The central economic work conference in December highlighted the need to address "involution" competition, marking the beginning of this initiative [3] - The recent meeting of the Central Financial Committee emphasized the importance of regulating low-price competition and guiding companies to improve product quality [3] Group 2 - New industries like new energy vehicles and photovoltaic products are also experiencing "involution" competition characterized by high investment and low output [3][4] - Local government support and protectionism are significant factors contributing to the persistence of "involution" in these emerging industries [4][5] - The photovoltaic industry is facing a situation where production capacity exceeds demand, leading to significant price drops across various segments [3][5] Group 3 - The lack of large-scale mergers and acquisitions in the photovoltaic and new energy vehicle sectors is concerning, as companies continue to operate despite losses [5] - Local governments often view mergers or market exits as failures, leading to continued support for underperforming companies [5][6] - The essence of combating "involution" is to allow businesses to operate freely, with a focus on product quality and innovation [6] Group 4 - The central government recognizes the need to regulate local government and corporate behavior to foster a competitive market environment [6] - It is crucial for local governments to strengthen governance and avoid interfering with market dynamics to promote a healthy business ecosystem [6]

Group 1 - The article highlights the trend of major cities in China, such as Shenzhen, Dongguan, and Chongqing, relaxing their household registration policies to attract talent, particularly focusing on lowering age restrictions for residency [1][2][3] - Shenzhen's policy allows graduates with a full-time college degree to settle without social security or work requirements, reflecting a broader trend among cities to create more favorable conditions for young professionals [1][4] - The report indicates that cities like Chongqing have already eliminated age limits for talent registration, with a significant population increase, reaching 31.9 million by the end of 2024, making it the most populous city in China [2][3] Group 2 - The demand for skilled and composite talent is increasing, particularly in emerging industries such as artificial intelligence and new energy vehicles, as traditional manufacturing undergoes transformation [7][8] - The report from Liepin indicates that job demand in first-tier and new first-tier cities is significant, with cities like Shenzhen and Dongguan ranking among the top 20 in national job demand [6][7] - Companies are increasingly focusing on the attractiveness of job positions and the overall economic development of the region when considering talent acquisition, with factors such as housing prices and local policies playing a crucial role [7][8][9] Group 3 - The article emphasizes the importance of cities developing a strong talent brand, which includes enhancing the efficiency of talent policies and providing competitive job opportunities [8][10] - The recognition of local industry clusters and the presence of notable companies can significantly influence job seekers' decisions, as seen in regions like Hangzhou [9][10] - The overall strategy for cities to attract talent involves not only lowering residency barriers but also improving the quality of life and job satisfaction for new residents [8][10]

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Fifth Chang'an Two-Wheeled Vehicle Battery Exchange Conference focuses on advanced technologies in the two-wheeled vehicle and battery exchange industry, gathering over 300 key enterprises and 600 executives to discuss industry development. Group 1: Event Overview - The conference was held on July 11, 2025, in Shenzhen, organized by various entities including Qidian Lithium Battery and Qidian Solid-State Battery [1] - The forum emphasized discussions on cutting-edge technologies such as lithium batteries, sodium batteries, high-rate charging, and new materials [1] Group 2: Company Insights - Star恒电源 has developed a comprehensive battery manufacturing and recycling business over 20 years, with production bases in Suzhou and Chuzhou, and international factories in Hungary and Indonesia [4] - The current production capacity is 2.25 GWh in Suzhou and 8 GWh in Chuzhou, with an upcoming expansion of 4 GWh [5] Group 3: Material Innovations - The company focuses on manganese-based materials, particularly lithium manganese oxide, which offers good ionic conductivity and stability, making it suitable for two-wheeled vehicles [5] - The first-generation single crystal Mn3O4 precursor material developed by the company enhances performance by 50% compared to traditional materials, reducing processing costs [5] - Lithium iron manganese phosphate is another material being explored, which has a voltage platform around 3.8V and is cost-effective [6] Group 4: Production Methods - Two main production methods for manganese-based materials are discussed: liquid phase methods (e.g., co-precipitation, sol-gel) and solid phase methods (e.g., high-temperature solid-state) [8] - Liquid phase methods offer better material uniformity but are complex, while solid phase methods are simpler and more cost-effective but may result in lower quality [8] Group 5: Advanced Technologies - The company introduced its seventh-generation technology, "Super Lithium S7," which combines the advantages of various manganese-based materials and has been successfully applied in over 200,000 vehicles [9] - The development of a precursor material platform aims to produce high-purity manganese oxides and transition metal oxides, with significant production capabilities planned for 2026 [10]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [2][51] Core Insights - In June, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 1.268 million and 1.329 million units, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 26.4% and 26.7% [41][45] - The lithium battery index has shown strong performance, with a 5.27% increase over the past two weeks, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.65 percentage points [4][13] - The solid-state battery industrialization process is accelerating, leading to structural incremental demand for materials and equipment in the industry chain [45] Summary by Sections Market Review - As of July 10, 2025, the lithium battery index has increased by 6.69% year-to-date, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 4.78 percentage points [4][13] - The lithium battery industry chain has seen price fluctuations, with battery-grade lithium carbonate averaging 63,400 CNY/ton, up 2.92% in the last two weeks [26][24] Price Changes in the Lithium Battery Industry Chain - As of July 10, 2025, the prices of lithium carbonate and nickel have increased, while lithium hydroxide and cobalt have decreased [24][27] - The average price of lithium hydroxide (LiOH 56.5%) is 63,100 CNY/ton, down 1.25% in the last two weeks [26][27] Industry News - The China Automotive Association reported that in June, the production and sales of new energy vehicles remained stable month-on-month, with a year-on-year growth rate that has slowed compared to previous months [41][45] - The global energy storage battery shipment volume for the first half of 2025 ranked the top ten companies, including CATL and EVE Energy [41] Company Announcements - Companies such as CATL and EVE Energy are focusing on solid-state battery materials and production capabilities, with significant advancements in their respective technologies [46][48] - Enjie Co., Ltd. has reported expected losses for the first half of 2025 due to declining profit margins in lithium battery separators [44] Weekly Insights - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the battery and materials sectors that have technological and production advantages in solid-state electrolytes and new electrode materials [45][46]

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Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the lithium battery industry [1][5]. Core Insights - The lithium battery sector has shown significant growth, with the index rising 15.16% in June 2025, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which increased by 2.18% [5][9]. - In June 2025, China's new energy vehicle sales reached 1.329 million units, a year-on-year increase of 26.69% and a month-on-month increase of 1.68% [5][16]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring upstream raw material prices, monthly sales, and developments in solid-state battery technology [5]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The lithium battery index and new energy vehicle index both outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index in June 2025 [5][9]. - A total of 98 stocks in the lithium battery sector rose, with an average increase of 11.19% [9][11]. New Energy Vehicle Sales and Industry Prices - In June 2025, new energy vehicle sales in China accounted for 45.76% of total vehicle sales, marking a historical high for the month [16]. - The report projects continued growth in new energy vehicle sales, supported by favorable policies and improved cost-performance ratios [16][20]. Industry and Company News - The report highlights significant partnerships and developments in the industry, including LG Energy Solution's supply agreement with Chery Automobile for cylindrical batteries [55]. - Xiaomi's plans for electric vehicle production and the establishment of a new factory are also noted, indicating a growing interest in the electric vehicle market [55][58].

Battery Industry - In the first half of 2025, global lithium battery production reached 986.47 GWh, representing a year-on-year growth of 48.29% [1] - The top 10 companies in lithium battery production include CATL, BYD, LG, Zhongchuang Xinhang, Yiwei Lithium Energy, Guoxuan High-Tech, Ruipu Lanjun, Xiamen Haicheng, Samsung SDI, and Hive Energy [1] Energy Storage - Global energy storage battery production in the first half of 2025 was 258 GWh, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 106% [2] - The leading companies in energy storage battery production are CATL, Yiwei Lithium Energy, Haicheng Storage, BYD, Zhongchuang Xinhang, Ruipu Lanjun, Guoxuan High-Tech, Envision Energy, Ganfeng Lithium, and Chuangneng New Energy [2] Lithium Iron Phosphate - Global lithium iron phosphate production in the first half of 2025 reached 163.2 million tons, with a year-on-year growth of 66.6% [3] - The top 10 companies in lithium iron phosphate production include Hunan Youneng, Wanrun New Energy, Defang Nano, Youshan Technology, Fulian Shenghua, Guoxuan High-Tech, Changzhou Lithium Source, Anda Technology, Taifeng First, and Dandeng Technology [3] NCM Materials - Domestic NCM (Nickel Cobalt Manganese) material production in the first half of 2025 was 32.1 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.3% [4] - The top 5 companies in NCM material production are Nantong Ruixiang, Rongbai Technology, Tianjin Bamo, Guangdong Bangpu, and Dandeng Technology [5] NCM Precursor - Domestic NCM precursor production in the first half of 2025 was 40.0 million tons, showing a year-on-year decline of 8.6% [8] - The top 5 companies in NCM precursor production include Hunan Bangpu, Zhongwei Co., Huayou Cobalt, Lanzhou Jintong, and Greeenmei [8] Lithium Manganese Oxide - Domestic lithium manganese oxide shipments in the first half of 2025 reached 6.4 million tons, with a year-on-year growth of 6.6% [9] Lithium Cobalt Oxide - Domestic lithium cobalt oxide production in the first half of 2025 was 5.37 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 27.8% [10] - The top 5 companies in lithium cobalt oxide production are Xiamen Tungsten New Energy, Tianjin Bamo, BASF Shanshan, Tianjin Mengguli, and Keheng Co. [11] Anode Materials - Domestic anode material production in the first half of 2025 reached 128.1 million tons, with a year-on-year growth of 34.56% [12] - The top 12 companies in anode material production include Betterray, Shanghai Shanshan, Shangtai Technology, Zhongke Xingcheng, Guangdong Kaijin, Jiangxi Zicheng, Hebei Kuntian, Carbon One New Energy, Xiangfenghua, Guangdong Dongdao, Jinhui Energy, and Huiyang New Energy [12] Electrolytes - Domestic electrolyte production in the first half of 2025 was 941,000 tons, showing a year-on-year growth of 54.57%; global production reached 1,005,000 tons, with a year-on-year growth of 46.71% [13] - The top 6 companies in electrolyte production are Tianci Materials, BYD, New Zobon, Zhuhai Saiwei, Xianghe Kunlun, and Shida Shenghua [14] Lithium Hexafluorophosphate - Global lithium hexafluorophosphate production in the first half of 2025 reached 125,000 tons, with a year-on-year growth of 38% [15] - The top 5 companies in lithium hexafluorophosphate production are Tianci Materials, Duofluor, New Tai New Materials, Jiangxi Shilei, and Zhejiang Yongtai [16] Separators - Domestic separator production in the first half of 2025 was 13.62 billion square meters, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 49%; wet-process separator production was 11.18 billion square meters, with a year-on-year growth of 60%; dry-process separator production was 2.43 billion square meters, with a year-on-year growth of 11% [17] - The top 5 companies in wet-process separator production are Enjie Co., Jinli New Energy, China National Materials, Xingyuan Material, and Housheng New Energy [18] - The top 3 companies in dry-process separator production are Xingyuan Material, Zhongxing New Materials, and Huqiang New Energy [19] Copper Foil - Domestic lithium battery copper foil production in the first half of 2025 was 466,900 tons, with a year-on-year growth of 30.4% [20] - The top 5 companies in copper foil production are Longdian Huaxin, Defu Technology, Huachuang New Materials, Jiayuan Technology, and Nord Co. [20] Aluminum Foil - Domestic battery aluminum foil production in the first half of 2025 was 228,000 tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 32.9% [21] - The top 5 companies in aluminum foil production are Dingsheng New Materials, North Aluminum, Shenlong Baoding, Anhui Jinyu, and Nannan Aluminum Foil [21] Sodium Batteries - Domestic sodium-ion battery production in the first half of 2025 was 2.1 GWh [22] - The top 5 companies in sodium-ion battery production are CATL, Zhongke Haina, BYD, Haishida, and Weike Technology [23] Sodium Battery Cathode - Domestic sodium-ion battery cathode material production in the first half of 2025 was 720 tons [24] - The top 5 companies in sodium battery cathode production include Jiana New Energy, Zhongke Haina, Wanrun New Energy, Yingna New Energy, and Dandeng Technology, with polyionic cathode materials accounting for 69.18%, layered oxide cathode materials for 28%, and Prussian blue/white cathode materials for 2.79% [25]

Group 1 - Li Daxiao suggests that the Chinese stock market may enter a "short squeeze bull market," indicating a strong upward movement driven by major funds [3] - Recent market performance shows the Shanghai Composite Index stabilizing above 3500 points, with significant net inflows from northbound funds, particularly in growth sectors like batteries and semiconductors [3] - The total market turnover has exceeded 1.5 trillion, indicating a recovery in trading volume, although it still falls short of the 1.6 trillion needed for a stable 3500 points [3] Group 2 - The policy environment is supportive, with a financial "combination punch" targeting consumption and technology sectors, particularly benefiting commercial real estate and lithium battery industries [3] - The establishment of a "Chinese version of a stabilizing fund" with an 800 billion yuan quota from the central bank is seen as a safety net for the market [3] - Historical context suggests that short squeeze markets can rise quickly but may also decline rapidly, highlighting the need for caution among investors [4] Group 3 - Three investment directions are recommended for medium to long-term investors: consumption upgrade sectors, technology growth stocks with a focus on fundamentals, and high-dividend blue-chip stocks [4] - The current price-to-earnings ratio of the A-share market is approaching historical averages, with some technology stocks, like Nvidia, showing high valuations that warrant caution [4] - The overall economic recovery remains fragile, and the ability of corporate earnings to keep pace with market movements is crucial [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests going long on industrial products on dips [5] Core Viewpoints - The "anti-involution" trading in the industrial product sector is heating up, with prices of some commodities rebounding due to policy expectations. The market is awaiting the July Politburo meeting for potential further pro - growth policies. The US is implementing new tariff policies on multiple countries, and there are signs of inflation trading both overseas and domestically, but it faces challenges [2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - In May, domestic investment data weakened, especially in the real - estate sector, which may drag down fiscal revenue and the entire real - estate chain. Exports were under pressure, while consumption showed resilience. The June manufacturing PMI rebounded, but the economic stabilization foundation needs to be strengthened. "Anti - involution" policy expectations in industries like photovoltaic, lithium - battery, and others are rising [2] - On July 10, the A - share market rose in the afternoon, with the Shanghai Composite Index standing firm at 3500 points, hitting a 9 - month high. Real - estate stocks had a涨停潮, and large - financial stocks strengthened [2] - The US will impose tariffs ranging from 25% to 40% on imports from 14 countries starting August 1, and a second batch of tariffs on 8 countries will also take effect on the same day. The US Commerce Secretary plans to talk with China in early August [2][7] - Trump issued an executive order on clean energy and announced a 50% tariff on copper starting August 1, 2025, and investigations in the pharmaceutical and semiconductor sectors will be completed by the end of the month [2] Macro - inflation - Trump signed the "Great Beautiful" tax and spending bill, which may increase US government debt by $3.4 trillion in the next decade, shifting the US from a "tight fiscal expectation + neutral monetary" phase to a "loose - prone" policy phase [3] - Overseas, the core is the currency - led inflation expectation. The US one - year inflation expectation in June dropped from 3.2% to 3.0%, a five - month low. In China, the Central Financial and Economic Commission's meeting has reignited inflation trading, but it faces challenges both overseas and domestically [3] Commodity Sector - Domestically, the black and new - energy metal sectors are most sensitive to the supply - side. Overseas, the energy and non - ferrous sectors benefit significantly from inflation expectations [4] - The black sector is still dragged down by downstream demand expectations. The supply shortage in the non - ferrous sector persists. In the energy sector, the short - term geopolitical premium is over, and the medium - term supply is expected to be relatively loose. OPEC + will increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, and OPEC has lowered its global oil demand forecast for the next four years [4] - The EIA expects the 2025 Brent crude oil price to be $69 per barrel. The ninth OPEC International Seminar was held from July 9 - 10 [4] - There are no short - term weather disturbances in the agricultural product sector, so the price fluctuation range is relatively limited [4] Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to go long on industrial products on dips [5]

2025 年 7 月 11 日 碳酸锂：累库加速但仓单偏少，震荡格局或延续 | 邵婉嫕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722 | shaowanyi@gtht.com | | --- | --- | | 刘鸿儒（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03124172 | liuhongru@gtht.com | 【基本面跟踪】 碳酸锂基本面数据 | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2509合约（收盘价） | 64,400 | 520 | 440 | 3,520 | 3,440 | -11,560 | | | | 2509合约（成交量） | 350,125 | -195,280 | -190,310 | -16,618 | 284,794 | 346,679 | | | | 2509合约（持仓量） | 326,895 | -11,139 | 1,321 | -23,511 | 138,865 | 309,525 | | | 盘面 | 2511合约 ...