Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating, highlighting the favorable momentum in new consumption sectors, particularly in beauty care, gold, trendy toys, and freshly brewed tea drinks [4]. Core Insights - The new consumption landscape reflects the evolving consumer preferences of the younger generation, emphasizing the importance of understanding these narratives for capturing growth opportunities in new consumption companies [80]. Beauty Care Sector - The high-end beauty segment is expected to grow faster than the mass market, with projected CAGR for high-end skincare and makeup at 9.6% and 10.8% respectively from 2023 to 2028, compared to 8.2% and 6.7% for mass-market products [5][9]. - Domestic brands are gaining market share, with the national beauty market share reaching 50.4% in 2023, surpassing foreign brands [15][18]. Gold Jewelry Sector - The gold jewelry market in China is projected to grow from 820 billion yuan in 2023 to 1,140 billion yuan by 2028, with a CAGR of 6.8% [19]. - The ancient gold segment shows strong growth potential, with a CAGR of 21.8% expected from 2023 to 2028, despite a slowdown in growth rates [24][25]. Trendy Toys Sector - The trendy toy market in China reached 626 billion yuan in 2023, with a CAGR of 31.24% from 2019 to 2023, indicating rapid growth [40]. - The market concentration is increasing, with the top five companies' market share rising from 22.8% in 2019 to 26.4% in 2021 [46]. Freshly Brewed Tea Drinks Sector - The freshly brewed tea drink market in China was valued at 517.5 billion yuan in 2023, accounting for 36.3% of the beverage market, with expectations to reach 1,163.4 billion yuan by 2028 [67]. - The market for freshly brewed tea drinks is anticipated to maintain its position as the largest segment within the freshly brewed beverage category, with a projected CAGR of 17.3% from 2023 to 2028 [71][75].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese潮玩 (trendy toys) market is experiencing explosive growth, with the popular character 拉布布 becoming a cultural phenomenon and driving significant sales both domestically and internationally [1][4][25]. Industry Growth - In the first half of 2025, the growth rate of the潮玩 industry doubled compared to 2024, with companies operating around the clock to meet demand [6][8]. - By June 2025, the number of潮玩-related enterprises registered in China increased by 41.08% year-on-year, indicating a robust expansion in the sector [7]. - In Dongguan, the largest潮玩 production base in China, many companies reported overwhelming orders during the same period [7]. Sales Trends -毛绒挂件 (plush accessories) saw a transaction volume increase of 164% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, marking it as one of the fastest-growing categories in毛绒玩具 (plush toys) [12]. - Male consumers accounted for over 40% of拉布布's sales, breaking the traditional female-dominated消费 (consumption) pattern in the潮玩 market [12]. Emotional Value - The success of潮玩 is attributed to their emotional value, as they resonate with consumers' feelings rather than merely fulfilling material needs [14][20]. -潮玩 products are designed to provide a "healing" experience, with careful attention to materials, textures, and emotional expressions [20][22]. Global Expansion - Chinese潮玩 products are increasingly recognized as global consumer goods, with unique designs and international marketing strategies allowing them to transcend cultural and geographical boundaries [25]. - In the first half of 2025,潮玩 exports from Dongguan reached 9.97 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 6.3%, highlighting the international demand for these products [31]. Market Size - The Chinese潮玩 market is projected to grow from 229 billion RMB in 2020 to 877 billion RMB by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 35.1% [34]. - The global潮玩 market is expected to reach 52 billion USD (approximately 3727.5 billion RMB) by 2025, indicating a significant shift towards emotional consumption in the toy industry [34].

Group 1 - Shanghai police dismantled a criminal gang selling counterfeit Labubu toys, with a case amount exceeding 12 million yuan [1] - ByteDance donated 10 million yuan to support disaster relief efforts in severely affected areas, focusing on emergency supplies for children and the elderly [2] - China's import and export trade with Central and Eastern European countries reached a record high of 522.88 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 6.8% [4] Group 2 - Hunan's import and export to the EU grew by nearly 30% in June, with Germany being the largest trading partner, showing a growth of 35.1% [6] - Shanghai's first aviation pre-clearance cargo station started trial operations, improving customs efficiency by approximately 30% and reducing logistics costs by 15% [7] - Apple announced the closure of its first direct store in China, located in Dalian, which will cease operations on August 9, 2025 [8] Group 3 - Zhongshi Technology stated that its thermal management solutions are versatile and applicable in the robotics field [9] - Microsoft introduced the Copilot mode in its Edge browser, enhancing user experience with AI features that predict user actions [10] - Huatai Securities expects the Federal Reserve to maintain its current interest rate during the July meeting, with future rate decisions dependent on economic data from July to August [11]

作者 | 范亮 编辑 | 丁卯 7月15日，泡泡玛特发布了一份表现强劲的业绩预告。 业绩预告指出，泡泡玛特2025年上半年营收增速同比增长不低于200%，净利润（不含未完成统计的金融工具的公允价值变动损益）同比增长可能不低于 350%，按此测算公司上半年营收将超136亿元，净利润超40亿元，走出了公司2020年上市以来的最强业绩。 尽管业绩预告表现亮眼，但这次港股市场却一反常态，泡泡玛特股价并未因此继续上行，反而在预告发布次日下跌4%，并在随后多个交易日出现小幅回 调。 那么，市场为何不买账？公司未来是否还有机会？ 业绩爆发但仍需长期检验 港股与A股在整体的投资风格上有一个较为明显的区别：港股市场主要围绕具体的业绩展开交易，财报/业绩预告的发布往往是一轮行情的起点；而反观A 股，市场则主要围绕预期展开交易，财报/业绩预告的发布往往是一轮行情的终点。 复盘泡泡玛特2024年以来的行情，其股价暴涨的月份往往在财报发布的当月，如2024年3月和8月，2025年3月等，符合业绩—股价的传导趋势。但是，本 次泡泡玛特发布了上市以来的最强业绩，公司股价反而开始回调，颇像A股市场"利好出尽"的风格。 出现这种走势的不外乎两 ...

Group 1 - The event "Intellectual Property Customs Protection for National Trends Going Global" was co-hosted by Pop Mart and Beijing Customs, highlighting the importance of IP protection for brands [1] - In the first half of this year, Beijing Customs seized 53 batches of suspected infringing goods, totaling 175,000 items, with 13 batches and over 30,000 items specifically related to Pop Mart [1] - Pop Mart's Vice President Chen Xiaoyun emphasized the importance of purchasing through official channels to avoid counterfeit products and expressed gratitude to customs authorities for their support in protecting brand rights [1][2] Group 2 - A significant seizure occurred on May 22, where Beijing Customs confiscated 7,850 infringing LABUBU dolls and 955 items bearing the Pop Mart brand, marking the largest single seizure of LABUBU products this year [1] - Subsequent seizures included 324 infringing LABUBU dolls, 18,200 LABUBU stickers, 53 LABUBU phone cases, and 843 packaging boxes [1]

近日，泡泡玛特联合北京海关举办了"知识产权海关保护为国潮出海保驾护航"活动。 据悉，今年上半年，北京海关查获涉嫌侵权货物53批次、17.5万件。其中，侵犯泡泡玛特知识产权货物 13批次、3万余件。去年以来，北京海关与上海、广州、深圳等海关通报趋势线索，联合各地海关拦截 大量假冒Labubu侵权泡泡玛特货物。 活动现场，泡泡玛特国际集团副总裁陈晓芸还分别向海关发布公众号和北京海关赠送锦旗，感谢其对泡 泡玛特一直以来的支持。 责任编辑：王翔 ...

Industry Environment - Chinese companies are accelerating their overseas expansion towards emerging markets and "Belt and Road" countries, despite facing increased scrutiny and trade barriers from Western nations [1][4] - The micro-drama industry has seen rapid international growth, reaching a user base of 576 million across over 200 countries, with successful cultural exports [1][3] - The photovoltaic and energy storage sectors are experiencing divergent paths due to recent U.S. policy changes, with energy storage benefiting from extended tax credits [4] Cross-Border E-commerce Trends - By 2025, cross-border e-commerce is expected to enter a "refinement" phase, with total import and export volume reaching 2.71 trillion yuan, and independent sites becoming a core vehicle for brand expansion [5] - Chinese beauty brands are leveraging cross-border e-commerce to meet rising global demand for DIY beauty products, focusing on localization and compliance [10][11] Chinese Brands Going Global - The next decade is seen as a golden period for Chinese brands to expand internationally, driven by global acceptance and manufacturing upgrades [9] - Chinese toy brands are innovating product forms and utilizing social media for market expansion, despite facing challenges in Southeast Asia and Japan [6][7] Automotive Industry Expansion - Chinese automotive companies are adopting a "deep cultivation" strategy in overseas markets, focusing on local production and smart driving technologies [8] - BYD plans to launch customized electric light vehicles in Japan by 2026, aiming to increase brand recognition in a competitive market [20] Food and Beverage Sector - Yuanqi Forest is successfully entering global markets with its health-oriented products, adapting to local tastes and compliance requirements [21][22] - Tea brand Chayan Yuesheng is entering the U.S. market through e-commerce, focusing on snacks and tea-related products rather than traditional tea [19]

Core Insights - The surge in overseas sales of LABUBU has spotlighted Dongguan's Shipaizhen, attracting both domestic and international businesses to the area [1] - Shipaizhen boasts a top-tier toy manufacturing industry chain in China, which supports the growth of brands like Pop Mart [1] - The rise of "trendy toys" is reshaping Dongguan's toy industry, with businesses eager to capitalize on this trend [1] Industry Overview - Shipaizhen is recognized as "China's Trendy Toy Capital," with over 400 toy and trendy toy production enterprises [11] - The total output value of the trendy toy industry cluster in Shipaizhen is projected to reach 13.218 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.3% [11] - The town accounts for approximately 30% of Dongguan's total trendy toy industry output value [11] Company Developments - Dongguan Yanchuang Cultural Development Co., Ltd. was established in 2024, focusing on creating original IPs in the trendy toy sector [2] - The company has successfully launched its own trendy toy brand, EMMA, which has gained popularity since its introduction [3] - Dapiaoqiang Toy Co., Ltd. has seen significant sales growth due to the popularity of plush toys, leveraging the demand created by LABUBU's success [4][5] Market Dynamics - The demand for trendy toys is driven by their higher profit margins compared to traditional toys, prompting businesses to invest in this sector [9] - Unlike traditional toys, trendy toys often rely on aesthetic appeal rather than established character narratives, leading to a different consumer purchasing motivation [10] - The competitive landscape for trendy toys is intensifying as more players enter the market, driven by lower production costs and easier access to manufacturing resources [10] Technological and Operational Advancements - Companies like Wenbo Craft have upgraded their production capabilities by introducing advanced machinery and establishing a professional product laboratory [7][8] - The shift towards self-owned IPs is becoming a trend among companies, as seen with Dapiaoqiang's transition from e-commerce live streaming to designing proprietary products [5][6]

Core Insights - The surge in overseas sales of LABUBU has spotlighted Dongguan's Shipaizhen, attracting both domestic and international businesses to the area [1] - Shipaizhen boasts a top-tier toy manufacturing industry chain in China, which supports the growth of brands like Pop Mart [1] - The rise of "trendy toys" is reshaping Dongguan's toy industry, with businesses pursuing opportunities in this sector [1] Industry Overview - Shipaizhen is recognized as the "Trendy Toy Capital of China," with over 400 toy and trendy toy production enterprises [11] - The total output value of the trendy toy industry cluster in Shipaizhen is projected to reach 13.218 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.3% [11] - The town accounts for approximately 30% of Dongguan's trendy toy industry output value, making it the largest in the city [11] Company Developments - Dongguan Yanchuang Cultural Development Co., Ltd. was established in 2024 and has developed its own trendy toy brand, EMMA, which has gained popularity [2][3] - The company transitioned from producing complex figurines to focusing on trendy toys due to market demand and operational challenges with previous partners [3] - Dapiaoqiang Toy Co., Ltd. has capitalized on the popularity of plush toys, achieving significant sales growth due to the demand for alternatives to high-priced limited-edition products from LABUBU [4][5] Market Dynamics - The trend of live-streaming sales has significantly influenced the growth of companies like Dapiaoqiang, which has amassed a large following and expanded its product offerings [5][6] - The competitive landscape is shifting as traditional toy manufacturers face pressure to adapt to the higher profit margins associated with trendy toys [9][10] - The entry of non-industry players into the trendy toy market has led to increased competition, with many struggling to sell their products [10] Technological and Operational Advancements - Companies like Wenbo Craft have upgraded their production capabilities by introducing advanced machinery and establishing a professional product laboratory [7][8] - The local industry benefits from a well-established supply chain, allowing for quick assembly and production of trendy toys [6] Consumer Behavior - Trendy toys differ from traditional toys in that they often rely on aesthetic appeal rather than established character narratives, leading to a stronger emotional connection with consumers [10] - The lower production costs associated with plush and rubber toys have made them more accessible for manufacturers, although this has also intensified competition [10]

Core Insights - The潮玩 industry is characterized by rapid product turnover, with most popular IPs only maintaining sales for about six months before declining significantly [1] - Companies in the潮玩 sector must continuously innovate and adapt to market trends to remain competitive, as the industry is marked by fierce competition [1] - 泡泡玛特 has managed to extend the product lifecycle of its offerings, breaking the trend of short-lived popularity seen in the industry [1] Industry Dynamics - The潮玩 industry experiences a high rate of product obsolescence, with successful products often quickly losing their appeal [1] - Many潮玩 companies rely on professional exhibitions for promotion and sometimes collaborate with scalpers to create hype, but this strategy often leads to a temporary spike in interest [1] - The ability to create lasting hits is limited, as many products fail to maintain their popularity after initial sales [1] Company Strategies - 泡泡玛特 has distinguished itself by effectively managing its product lifecycle, allowing certain products to achieve renewed popularity annually [1] - The company's success is attributed to strategic decisions, such as acquiring top designer IPs early and expanding internationally [1] - The hiring of experienced executives, such as a Korean national, has also contributed to 泡泡玛特's operational success [1] - Despite its successes, 泡泡玛特 still has a significant number of products that do not perform well and remain unsold [2]