| 国校期货 11 | | | 责金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | 2026年01月30日 | | 黄金 | 白银 女女女 | ☆☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 销 | 女女女 | ☆☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | | 孙芳芳 中级分析师 | | | | | F03111330 Z0018905 | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 隔夜贵金属剧烈波动,盘中振幅超过10%。市场聚焦地缘局势变化,俄乌方面普京同意部分停火一周,美伊 依然处于焦灼状态，随时可能发动重大打击，不过特朗普表示计划与伊朗进行对话。此外特朗普称利率应下 降2到3个百分点，计划今晚公布美联储主席人选。市场消息称此前偏鹰派的沃什可能超出市场预期的成为新 任主席。短期信息繁杂,市场波动风险高，控制仓位谨慎参与。 ★★☆ 两颗星代表持多/空,不仅判断较为明晰的上涨/下跌趋势 ...

新版国家标准将于2026年3月1日正式实施。 1月30日，上海期货交易所（下称上期所）发布公告，就铅期货合约规则修订事项公开征求市场意见。 本次修订的内容为引入符合国家标准的再生铅锭作为可替代交割品，标志着期货市场服务有色金属行业 绿色低碳发展的能力进一步提升。 铅期货自上市以来，整体运行平稳，市场功能有效发挥，期现价格联动紧密，已成为国内现货贸易定价 的重要依据，并被产业链企业广泛应用于风险管理和贸易活动。近年来，再生铅已逐渐成为全球铅市场 重要组成部分，为顺应产业结构发展、响应产业呼吁，在中国有色金属工业协会和相关行业企业支持 下，上期所积极配合全国有色金属标准化技术委员会修订再生铅锭国家标准，新版国家标准将于2026年 3月1日正式实施。 当前有色金属行业正处于绿色低碳转型的关键时期，铅作为有色金属中再生产品占比最高的品种，行业 已基本形成"生产-消费-回收-再生"的闭环模式，实现了铅资源的高效循环利用。近年来，再生铅生产企 业和下游铅蓄电池企业积极利用上期所铅期货套期保值，并辅助自身开展原料采购、基差贸易。将再生 铅纳入期货替代交割，将有助于提升再生铅行业的风险管理能力，更好服务产业绿色低碳发展。 本 ...

Group 1 - The closing price of Shanghai gold futures on January 30 was 1161.42 CNY per gram, reflecting a decrease of 4.71% with a trading volume of 894,024 lots and an open interest of 187,299 lots [1] - The spot price of gold in Shanghai was quoted at 1164.00 CNY per gram, indicating a premium of 2.58 CNY per gram over the futures price [3] - The market sentiment for gold remains bullish, but there are risks of profit-taking among long positions, leading to increased volatility in the short term [4] Group 2 - U.S. political developments include Trump's announcement of a new Federal Reserve chair next week, advocating for a significant interest rate cut of 2 to 3 percentage points [3] - Geopolitical tensions are highlighted by a temporary ceasefire agreement in Ukraine and military exercises by Iran in the Strait of Hormuz, which may impact market stability [3] - The gold-silver ratio has dropped below 50, indicating increased market divergence, with expectations of significant price fluctuations for silver in the short term [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the London platinum and palladium markets trended weaker in a volatile manner. The Fed maintained interest rates as expected, and future policies will depend on data. The expectation of a rate cut in March this year has weakened, but there is still an expectation of a rate cut in the second half of the year. The escalating geopolitical situation between the US and Iran may provide potential safe - haven support for platinum and palladium prices. [7] - The EU postponed the 2035 internal combustion engine ban and strengthened vehicle exhaust emission standards, increasing the demand for platinum in automotive catalysts by about 450,000 ounces this year. Although the global passenger car sales are slightly adjusted downwards, the increasing penetration of hybrid and hydrogen - fuel - cell commercial vehicles may improve the medium - to - long - term demand curve for platinum. The IEA's latest hydrogen outlook also confirms that the cumulative installed capacity of PEM electrolyzers is expected to exceed 17GW by 2030, providing potential upside for platinum prices. [7] - In the short term, there are many global macro - disturbance factors, and high market volatility may continue. In the medium - to - long term, the industrial logic of platinum and palladium will still dominate the trading rhythm. The uncertainty of South Africa's power supply and Russia's exports, along with the implementation of new vehicle emission policies, make platinum more resilient than palladium. The supply - demand pattern divergence may continue to drive the "platinum - strong, palladium - weak" market trend. [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - The London platinum and palladium markets trended weaker in a volatile manner this week. The Fed's interest - rate decision was in line with market expectations. The expectation of a rate cut in March has weakened, but there is still a possibility in the second half of the year. The US - Iran situation may support prices. [7] - The EU's new policies on vehicle emissions will increase the demand for platinum in automotive catalysts. The long - term demand for platinum may improve. The market will be volatile in the short term, and the "platinum - strong, palladium - weak" trend may continue in the medium - to - long term. The resistance and support levels for London platinum are $2,800/oz and $2,600/oz respectively, and for London palladium are $2,100/oz and $1,900/oz respectively. [7] 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - On Friday, there was concentrated profit - taking in the precious - metals market, leading to a significant correction in the platinum and palladium markets. As of January 30, 2026, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's palladium futures contract 2606 rose 6.81% week - on - week to 464.05 yuan/gram, while the platinum futures contract 2606 fell 8.07% week - on - week to 630.55 yuan/gram. [8][12] - The net long positions of NYMEX platinum and palladium continued to diverge. As of January 20, 2026, the net long position of NYMEX platinum was 21,782 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 8.50%, and that of NYMEX palladium was - 2,762 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 4.43%. [13][17] - The basis of NYMEX platinum and palladium futures contracts weakened this week. [18] - NYMEX platinum inventory decreased, while palladium inventory increased. As of January 29, 2026, NYMEX platinum inventory was 655,182.10 ounces, a week - on - week decrease of 1.61%, and palladium inventory was 224,021.17 ounces, a week - on - week increase of 3.59%. [22][26] - The ratio of NYMEX platinum to COMEX gold has significantly increased compared to the beginning of 2025. [27] - Recently, the positive correlation between platinum prices and NYMEX platinum exchange inventory and US Treasury real yields has rebounded. [32] 3.3 Industry Supply - Demand Situation - As of December 2025, the import and export volumes of platinum and palladium both increased. [37] - The demand for platinum in automotive exhaust catalysts is marginally weakening. The total global demand for platinum and palladium is showing a mild slow - down trend. Due to geopolitical conflicts and power - supply disruptions, the global supply of platinum and palladium is decreasing. The price difference between London and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange for platinum and palladium has become stable. [43][52][56] 3.4 Macroeconomic Data - This week, the US dollar index continued to weaken, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield remained basically unchanged. [60]

近日，南华期货（603093）（603093.SH / 02691.HK）境外全资子公司横华国际旗下南华美国有限公司 （Nanhua USA LLC）正式获批北美 Nodal Exchange 交易会员资质。结合此前已拿下的 Nodal Clear 清算 会员资格，南华期货在Nodal Exchange实现 "交易 + 清算"服务闭环，全球化布局再添关键砝码。 北美市场精准破局 解锁跨资产服务新场景 Nodal Exchange 作为美国电力、天然气及环保衍生品领域的核心平台，凭借 1000 + 区位合约覆盖及 56% 的美国电力期货市场份额，允许交易者对冲特定地理位置的电价波动风险——这是传统区域性电 力合约（如"PJM West Hub"）无法实现的精准对冲。此外，Nodal Exchange 还提供天然气、环境权益 （如可再生能源证书REC）及碳信用相关产品，并由 Nodal Clear对Nodal Exchange上市的合约进行清 算。南华美国凭借Nodal Exchange交易资格及Nodal Clear的清算资格，可以为投资者参与美国电力、能 源市场提供"交易 + 清算"服务闭环。 欧洲：高价值赛 ...

近日，南华期货（603093.SH / 02691.HK）境外全资子公司横华国际旗下南华美国有限公司（Nanhua USA LLC）正式获批北美 Nodal Exchange 交易会员资质。结合此前已拿下的 Nodal Clear 清算会员资 格，南华期货在Nodal Exchange实现 "交易 + 清算"服务闭环，全球化布局再添关键砝码。 北美市场精准破局 解锁跨资产服务新场景 Nodal Exchange 作为美国电力、天然气及环保衍生品领域的核心平台，凭借 1000 + 区位合约覆盖及 56% 的美国电力期货市场份额，允许交易者对冲特定地理位置的电价波动风险——这是传统区域性电 力合约（如"PJM West Hub"）无法实现的精准对冲。此外，Nodal Exchange 还提供天然气、环境权益 （如可再生能源证书REC）及碳信用相关产品，并由 Nodal Clear对Nodal Exchange上市的合约进行清 算。南华美国凭借Nodal Exchange交易资格及Nodal Clear的清算资格，可以为投资者参与美国电力、能 源市场提供"交易 + 清算"服务闭环。 此外，Nodal Clear 亦 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2026.01.30」 菜籽类市场周报 政策层面仍然存忧 推动菜油价格补涨 研究员：许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0017638 联系电话：0595-86778969 总结及策略建议 Ø 菜油： 3 Ø 行情回顾：本周菜油期货震荡收涨，05合约收盘价9380元/吨，较前一周+389元/吨。 Ø 行情展望：全球及加拿大菜籽供需格局相对宽松，继续牵制其市场价格。且美国总统特朗普表示， 如果加拿大与中国达成贸易协议并予以推进，他将对加拿大征收100%的关税。对加拿大菜油出口 较为不利。不过，中加贸易关系缓和，提振加拿大菜籽出口预期，支撑加菜籽市场。其它方面， 美国生柴政策可能利好，同时，高频数据显示，马棕本月供应端延续减产，且本月前二十五日出 口明显增加。另外，印度取消豆油买船，或转向性价比更高的棕榈油，给市场提供额外支撑。国 内方面，现阶段油厂继续处于停机状态，菜油也维持去库模式，对其价格形成支撑，菜油基差维 持高位。同时，美国对加拿大施压，对此引发市场对中加贸易协定最终能否完全落地存在疑虑。 不过，路透社消息称，中国进口商获得了多达10船加拿大油菜籽船货，预 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2026.01. 30」 贵金属市场周报 作者： 研究员 廖宏斌 期货投资咨询证号：Z0020723 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 3 「 期现市场」 关 注 我 们 获 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业供需情况 4、宏观及期权 「 周度要点小结」 ◆ 市场回顾：本周，伴随贵金属市场波动继续放大，黄金白银均创下历史新高，但多头高位获利了结叠加避险对 冲需求同时抬升，导致多空博弈显著加剧，周五盘中海内外贵金属市场大幅回调，短线市场情绪趋于谨慎。美 联储方面，FOMC议息会议如期维持利率按兵不动，符合市场预期。会议声明指出，经济活动保持稳健扩张，就 业增长温和，失业率初现企稳，通胀仍略高于目标。从议后市场反应来看，利率期货显示今年3月FOMC降息预 期减弱，但仍维持下半年逐步重启50-75基点降息的预期。继美国向欧洲八国进行关税威胁后，美方上调针对 韩国的关税税率，叠加美联储新一任主席政策立场的不确定性，以及市场对于美国债务问题持久化的担忧情绪， 推动贵金属市场大幅走高。美伊局势持续升温，美国总统特朗普表示正考虑对伊朗发动新的重大打击，伊方领 导人给予强硬回应，市场避险情 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The MA2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2260 - 2400 in the short - term [7] - The domestic methanol market shows a split between the port and the inland. The port market oscillates, while the inland price continues to decline. The overall domestic methanol production is increasing, and the inventory shows different trends in different regions. The short - term MTO industry's operating rate is expected to rise slightly [8] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Week - to - Week Summary - Strategy suggestion: The MA2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2260 - 2400 in the short - term [7] - Market performance: The port methanol market oscillates, with the price in Jiangsu ranging from 2240 - 2330 yuan/ton and in Guangdong from 2220 - 2290 yuan/ton. The inland price continues to decline, with the price in Ordos North Line ranging from 1785 - 1805 yuan/ton [8] - Outlook: The domestic methanol production increases. The inland enterprise inventory decreases slightly, the port inventory accumulates, but the port inventory is expected to decline next week. The short - term MTO industry's operating rate is expected to rise slightly [8] 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets Futures Market - Price trend: The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou methanol futures oscillates and closes up, with a weekly increase of 0.96% [11] - Inter - delivery spread: As of January 30th, the MA 5 - 9 spread is - 24 [16] - Position analysis: As of January 29th, the number of Zhengzhou methanol warehouse receipts is 7410, a decrease of 335 compared to last week [25] Spot Market - Domestic price: As of January 29th, the mainstream price in East China's Taicang area is 2300 yuan/ton, an increase of 37.5 yuan/ton compared to last week; the mainstream price in Northwest Inner Mongolia is 1790 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton compared to last week. The spread between East China and Northwest is 510 yuan/ton, an increase of 42.5 yuan/ton compared to last week [30] - Foreign price: As of January 29th, the CFR price of methanol at the Chinese main port is 272 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5 US dollars/ton compared to last week. The spread between Southeast Asia and the Chinese main port is 50 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 8 US dollars/ton compared to last week [35] - Basis: As of January 29th, the basis of Zhengzhou methanol is - 52 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16.5 yuan/ton compared to last week [39] 3.3. Industry Chain Analysis Upstream - Coal and gas prices: As of January 28th, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with a calorific value of 5500 kcal is 685 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. As of January 29th, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas is 3.88 US dollars/million British thermal units, a decrease of 1.48 US dollars/million British thermal units compared to last week [42] Industry - Production and operating rate: As of January 29th, China's methanol production is 2037735 tons, an increase of 28820 tons compared to last week; the device capacity utilization rate is 91.21%, a month - on - month increase of 1.43% [45] - Inventory: As of January 28th, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is 42.41 tons, a decrease of 1.42 tons compared to the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 3.24%; the order backlog of sample enterprises is 26.57 tons, an increase of 2.74 tons compared to the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 11.50%. The total inventory of Chinese methanol ports is 147.21 tons, an increase of 1.46 tons compared to the previous data. The inventory in East China accumulates, while that in South China decreases [52] - Import volume and profit: In December 2025, China's methanol import volume is 173.40 tons, a month - on - month increase of 24.56%; from January to December 2025, China's cumulative methanol import volume is 1440.54 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.75%. As of January 29th, the methanol import profit is - 12.43 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.94 yuan/ton compared to last week [57] Downstream - Operating rate: As of January 29th, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins devices is 81.95%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.2%. The MTO devices of Zhejiang Xingxing, Sierbang, and Shandong Hengtong continue to be shut down, while the Ningbo Fude device restarts, but the weekly average operating rate still decreases [60] - Profit: As of January 30th, the domestic methanol - to - olefins on - paper profit is - 936 yuan/ton, an increase of 102 yuan/ton compared to last week [63] 3.4. Options Market Analysis - Not provided in the content

目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业链分析 「 周度要点小结」 策略建议： UR2605合约短线预计在1770-1830区间波动。 瑞达期货研究院 「 2026.01.30」 尿素市场周报 研究员：林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询证书号Z0021558 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 3 4 「 期货市场情况」 行情回顾：本周国内尿素市场呈现冲高回落，截止周四山东中小颗粒主流出厂涨至1740-1780元/ 吨，均价环比上涨45元/吨。本周期国内尿素企业陆续进入春节收单阶段，农业需求的跟进以及市 场情绪的带动，尿素工厂收单较为顺利，并未出现明显降价吸单现象，下游跟单积极性尚可。 行情展望：前期部分检修装置恢复，带动国内尿素产量增加，下周暂无企业装置计划停车，1-3家 停车企业装置可能恢复生产，考虑到短时的企业故障发生，预计产量增幅有限。近期苏皖以及其 他区域春节前农业备肥需求持续推进，但增量有限。工业领域维持刚需采购，复合肥本周产能利 用率环比下滑，部分地区受到环保预警等影响，装置出现降负荷情况，工业需求对尿素支持减弱。 本周国内尿素企业库存波动较小， ...