"当前玻璃行业冷修与复产并存，从行业库存水平看，少量检修对行业供需格局难以形成较大影响。玻 璃行业潜在供应能力充足，若行业利润有所改善，将激发更多冷修待点火产线投入生产。玻璃期货2509 合约迭创新低，供应回升使盘面短期无明确支撑。"魏朝明说。 近期工业硅价格迭创新低。在价格连续下行过程中，供应维持增长态势。近日，新疆持续有大炉复产开 工；四川丰水期电价下行，企业为消纳弃水电份额，少量点火开炉；云南检修硅厂后续仍有复产计划。 端午假期后首个交易日，国内商品期货涨跌互现。其中，黄金、白银、原油涨幅较大，丁二烯橡胶、20 号胶、玻璃、焦煤、多晶硅、工业硅等品种跌幅较大。 国信期货首席有色分析师顾冯达介绍，短期贵金属波动将加剧，需紧盯美国关税政策及地缘风险边际变 化。若贸易摩擦升级或地缘冲突升温，COMEX黄金或上探3450美元/盎司左右，白银因工业属性与降息 预期共振，弹性或强于黄金；反之，若风险缓和，黄金可能回踩3300美元/盎司附近支撑，而白银受光 伏装机旺季托底，33.5美元/盎司左右支撑坚实。 对于玻璃、多晶硅、工业硅的下跌，方正中期期货首席新能源研究员魏朝明告诉期货日报记者，玻璃、 多晶硅、工业硅的共同 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Industrial silicon: Weak [1] - Polysilicon: Sideways [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The supply - side pressure of industrial silicon intensifies during the wet season, and it maintains a downward trend. The polysilicon market is in a bottom - capacity - reduction cycle, and the fundamentals of both industries are currently weak [1][3] - For industrial silicon, the supply - side pressure remains due to the expected resumption of production in the southwest and northwest regions. The demand from downstream polysilicon is weakening, the demand from organic silicon is marginally stabilizing, and the demand from silicon - aluminum alloy is stable. The inventory shows no obvious signs of reduction, so it should be treated bearishly [2][4] - For polysilicon, the production has bottomed out and stabilized, with some resumption of production expected in the southwest. The terminal installation is marginally weakening, and inventory reduction is slow. It is recommended to operate within the range of 35,000 - 40,000 [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon Supply - side - The spot price of East China non - oxygen - blown 553 silicon is 8,300 - 8,400 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous trading day. In May, the industrial silicon output dropped to 290,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from April. Xinjiang reduced production by about 10,000 tons. In the southwest, Sichuan has resumed production to about 15,000 tons, and Yunnan is still operating at a low level, with expected increased operation in June. Some Xinjiang manufacturers have the expectation of resuming production again, and the supply - side pressure persists [2] Downstream Demand - side - Polysilicon: In April, the polysilicon output stabilized at 95,000 tons. As the photovoltaic rush - installation tide nears its end, the demand for polysilicon in the industrial chain is expected to decline, and there is a possibility of further production cuts, leading to a marginal weakening of the demand for industrial silicon [2] - Organic silicon: Monomer manufacturers have initiated joint production cuts. Recently, the DMC inventory has significantly decreased, the DMC price has stabilized and rebounded, and the production - cut effect is evident. The demand for industrial silicon shows marginal signs of stabilization [2] - Alloy silicon: The price is stable, but the consumption is low and cannot support the market. The demand for industrial silicon remains stable [2] Inventory - The inventory pressure is high. This week's inventory increased by 7,000 tons compared to last week, and the current social inventory is reported at 589,000 tons [2] Polysilicon Supply - side - The production cuts of polysilicon have basically been priced in, and the market has returned to fundamental logic. In April, the polysilicon output slightly dropped to 95,000 tons. Currently, polysilicon manufacturers are still producing according to quotas. With the weakening downstream demand expectation, the output will not fluctuate significantly. As the southwest wet season approaches, some manufacturers have the expectation of resuming production, but limited by the polysilicon price, the output is expected to grow slowly [3] Downstream Demand - side - Silicon wafers: There is a trend of production cuts. Currently, they are mainly digesting polysilicon inventory. The silicon wafer price has slightly weakened, and the inventory is being reduced rapidly [3] - Solar cells and modules: The production schedules have also decreased. The rush - installation period has ended. With the gradual withdrawal of photovoltaic subsidies, the photovoltaic industry will accelerate reshuffling, and the demand for polysilicon will decline significantly [3] Inventory - The current polysilicon inventory is about 250,000 tons, and the entire industrial - chain inventory is equivalent to nearly 500,000 tons. The inventory - reduction pressure is high [3]

楼家豪—有色分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0018424 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：loujiahao@cindasc.com 李艳婷—有色分析师 从业资格证号：F03091846 联系电话：0571-28132578 邮箱：liyanting@cindasc.com 徐浩然—有色分析师 从业资格证号：F03120971 联系电话：0571-28132578 邮箱：xuhaoran@cindasc.com 信达期货有限公司 CINDAFUTURESCO.LTD 杭州市萧山区钱江世纪城天人大厦19-20楼 邮编：311200 丰水期预期转向现实，工业硅加速下跌 报告内容摘要: 期货研究报告 商品研究 [Table_ReportType] 工业硅月报 走势评级：短期---偏空 中期---震荡 长期---震荡 [Table_ReportDate] 报告日期： 2025 年 6 月 3 日 [Table_Summary] ◆盘面回顾： 五月份工业硅加速下跌，主力合约 2507 跌幅达-16.6%，西南地区丰水期将 至，复产预期加强，叠加部分新疆厂商有复产计划，供应端压力再度 ...

2025年06月03日 商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 3 日 镍：短线成本托底，预期偏弱压制 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 | 观点与策略 | | --- | | 镍：短线成本托底，预期偏弱压制 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：负反馈与减产博弈，钢价区间震荡 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：基本面偏弱，下行压力仍存 | 4 | | 工业硅：库存累库，盘面继续下行 | 6 | | 多晶硅：以逢高布空思路为主 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 不锈钢：负反馈与减产博弈，钢价区间震荡 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 121,100 | 620 | -1,510 | -1,510 | -2,620 ...

光伏消费羸弱，工业硅再创新低 核心观点及策略 工业硅周报 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 ⚫ 上周工业硅再创新低，主因国内宏观乐观预期充分兑现， 海外贸易局势不稳定，以及光伏供给侧改革深入落实后中 上游硅料产能瓶颈显现。供应来看，新疆地区开工率恢复 至6成左右，川滇地区开工率低迷，内蒙和甘肃产量下行， 供应端反弹有限；从需求侧来看，多晶硅成交十分有限丰 水期企业复产十分谨慎，硅片减产厂家居多价格逼近历史 低点，光伏电池厂家排产偏紧需匹配下游存量需求，关注 行业供需的边际变化，组件市场库存周转相对健康，原料 成本坍塌后利润较为可观，关注组件企业被动跟随中上游 减产的幅度，整体来看抢装潮后行业增长动能明显不足， 社会库存小幅升至58.9万吨，现货市场重心仍在持续下 移。 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号： ...

2025 年 06 月 03 日 商 品 研 究 工业硅：库存累库，盘面继续下行 多晶硅：以逢高布空思路为主 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Si2507收盘价（元/吨） | 7,160 | -55 | -755 | -1,620 | | | | Si2507成交量（手） | 456,239 | -83,444 | 172,084 | 267,797 | | | | Si2507持仓量（手） | 208,497 | -15,649 | 30,113 | 15,395 | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | | PS2507收盘价（元/吨） | 35,600 | 320 | -490 | - | | | | PS2507成交量（手） | 150,575 | 5,236 | -18,647 | - | | | | PS2507持仓量（手） | 77,400 | -871 | 2,971 | - ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the critical role of industrial silicon in key industries such as photovoltaics, new energy vehicles, and electronics, amidst a rapidly changing global energy structure and industrial upgrades. It highlights the challenges faced by industrial silicon producers due to oversupply and price volatility, and emphasizes the potential of financial derivatives for risk management and price discovery in this context [1]. Group 1: Industry Overview - Industrial silicon capacity has expanded rapidly, with supply growth outpacing demand, leading to periodic oversupply and significant price fluctuations [1]. - The production and sales models of industrial silicon companies exhibit notable regional characteristics, with different procurement strategies based on local resource availability [1]. Group 2: Financial Derivatives Application - The article focuses on the practical application of futures and options in optimizing sales prices and managing inventory in the context of industrial silicon supply-demand mismatches [2]. - Companies can utilize options markets to capture time value during the sales cycle, enhancing their competitive edge [2]. Group 3: Case Study - A case study illustrates a northern factory's strategy to manage inventory and sales pressure by locking in sales prices through futures and selling call options to reduce holding costs [2][3]. - On April 10, 2025, the factory locked in a sales price of 9600 yuan/ton for 1000 tons of industrial silicon, while also selling call options to mitigate inventory costs [4]. Group 4: Financial Outcomes - The factory achieved a profit of 1300 yuan/ton from futures trading and received an additional 166 yuan/ton from selling call options, effectively lowering its holding costs [3][4][5]. - The financial derivatives strategy not only provided a hedge but also generated extra income, demonstrating the effectiveness of such tools in the industrial silicon sector [3][5]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The application of financial derivatives in the industrial silicon industry is expected to expand, becoming a key driver for optimizing risk management and resource allocation efficiency [5]. - This strategic approach is anticipated to help the industry seize development opportunities in the context of global energy transition and achieve high-quality growth [5].

Core Insights - In May 2025, both spot and futures prices for industrial silicon experienced significant declines, with spot prices dropping to 7556 CNY/ton, a decrease of 14.41% from April, and futures prices hitting a low of 7130 CNY/ton, down 16.45% [1] Supply and Demand - Industrial silicon supply slightly decreased in May to approximately 303,000 tons, a 4% month-over-month decline, primarily due to maintenance in Xinjiang and capacity adjustments in Yunnan and Gansu [1] - June is expected to see an increase in production from Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Yunnan, potentially exceeding 350,000 tons [1] - Demand from organic silicon enterprises showed a minor recovery in May, with an expected increase of 0.5 thousand tons, although procurement plans remain modest [1] - Export figures for April were 60,500 tons, reflecting a 1.64% month-over-month increase but a 9.19% year-over-year decrease, with total exports from January to April at 216,700 tons, down 6.54% year-over-year [1] Cost and Profitability - In June, companies in Sichuan are expected to benefit from lower electricity prices during the wet season, leading to a noticeable reduction in costs, while Yunnan's electricity prices remain relatively stable with weak operational intentions [1] - The prices of silicon stone and silicon coal have decreased, with Taiwan's焦中标价 dropping to 101 USD/ton [1] - May saw a decline in gross margins, with most manufacturers experiencing negative cash costs [1] Inventory and Market Outlook - In May, inventory levels shifted towards the market, leading to a mid-month rebound in futures prices, while factories in the northwest engaged in hedging, resulting in a transfer of inventory from factories to non-standard warehouses [1] - The industry outlook for profitability remains pessimistic, with expected significant production increases in June and high inventory levels contributing to new lows in futures prices [1] - Recommendations for investors include shorting the 2508 futures contract or selling out-of-the-money call options, while traders or upstream companies are advised to sell call options to maintain inventory [1]

Group 1: Tianhua New Energy - Tianhua New Energy has made significant progress in solid-state battery materials, developing high-voltage lithium cobalt oxide, high-nickel ternary, lithium-rich manganese-based, and spinel nickel-manganese materials [1] - The newly developed lithium-rich manganese-based materials have completed sample testing and have been sent to multiple solid-state battery customers for evaluation, showing high specific capacity and good stability [1] - The advancements in solid-state battery materials are expected to provide new growth opportunities for Tianhua New Energy, aligning with the rapid development of China's new energy vehicle market [1] Group 2: Jiangsu New Energy - Jiangsu New Energy announced abnormal stock trading fluctuations, with a cumulative closing price increase of over 20% in two consecutive trading days [2] - In Q1 2025, the company's net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 34.65% year-on-year, primarily due to unfavorable wind conditions in Jiangsu, leading to reduced wind power generation [2] - The company's future performance is influenced by various factors, including local wind speed, solar intensity, and industry policy changes, which may lead to performance volatility [2] Group 3: Silicon Industry - The silicon industry is experiencing downward pressure on industrial silicon prices due to increased supply expectations and weak demand, resulting in a slight price decline [3] - Northern manufacturers are resuming production, and with the upcoming flood season, overall production is expected to increase, despite limited preparations from southern manufacturers [3] - Although there is stable supply from organic silicon monomer plants and some expected increases in production, the overall market activity remains low, reflecting a delicate balance in supply and demand [3]

有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/05/28 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/05/21 265 758 108142 41218 -527.73 57.47 94.0 110.0 14.01 168825 66000 2025/05/22 125 495 108142 31754 -701.34 264.30 92.0 108.0 15.88 166525 68650 2025/05/23 160 455 98671 33406 -442.58 364.60 92.0 104.0 31.14 164725 72075 2025/05/26 180 629 98671 32833 - 46.37 93.0 105.0 - - - 2025/05/27 140 544 98671 34961 -822.25 261.41 94.0 109.0 40.08 162150 76350 变化 -40 -85 0 2128 - 215.04 ...