1. Report's Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core Views - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, and there were differences within the committee. The US faces challenges of rising prices and a cooling labor market. The market shows different trends for various commodities, with some in a state of shock, some with potential for short - term rebound, and others facing supply - demand imbalances [7][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Metals Gold and Silver - Gold prices were affected by the Fed's interest rate cut. Silver reached a new high, breaking through 60. The market showed certain price fluctuations and trading volume changes [14][18]. Copper - The decline of the US dollar supported copper prices. There were some impacts on supply from mining companies, and China's copper imports increased year - on - year [22][24]. Zinc - Zinc prices fell from a high level, with changes in trading volume, open interest, and inventory [25]. Lead - The reduction in inventory limited the decline of lead prices [28]. Tin - There were disturbances in tin supply [31]. Aluminum, Alumina and Casting Aluminum Alloy - Aluminum prices continued to fluctuate, alumina had a slight rebound, and casting aluminum alloy followed the trend of electrolytic aluminum [34]. Platinum and Palladium - Platinum faced obvious pressure at the upper level, while palladium fluctuated upward [39][41]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - The structural surplus of nickel changed, but the game contradictions remained unchanged. The supply and demand of stainless steel continued to be weak, and the cost - support logic was strengthened [43]. Lithium Carbonate - The news of large - scale production resumption was repeated, and the price was in a high - level shock [48]. 3.2 Industrial Minerals Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - For industrial silicon, the price was affected by factors such as inventory and cost. The details of the equity of the polysilicon platform company were announced, and the market suggested buying on dips [51][53]. Iron Ore - The downstream demand space of iron ore was limited, and the valuation was high [54]. Steel Products (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - Affected by the sentiment of the real estate sector, rebar and hot - rolled coil prices were in a low - level shock [57][60]. Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon - Both ferrosilicon and manganese silicon were in a wide - range shock [62]. Coke and Coking Coal - Coke and coking coal prices were in a wide - range shock [65]. Logs - Log prices were in a low - level shock [69]. 3.3 Chemicals Paraxylene (PX), Purified Terephthalic Acid (PTA) and Monoethylene Glycol (MEG) - PX was in a high - level shock market with cost support. PTA had cost support and was suitable for positive spread trading. MEG's device production cut scale expanded, and the downward space was limited [73][81]. Rubber and Synthetic Rubber - Natural rubber was in a shock operation, and synthetic rubber was in a range operation [84][87]. Asphalt - Due to geopolitical factors, asphalt had a phased slight rebound [91]. Linear Low - Density Polyethylene (LLDPE) and Polypropylene (PP) - LLDPE prices fell unilaterally, and the basis weakened again. PP faced upstream selling pressure, and the price difference between powder and granular materials was inverted [103][105]. Caustic Soda - It was not advisable to chase short positions in caustic soda, as it faced high - production and high - inventory situations [108][109]. Pulp - Pulp prices were in a shock - upward trend. Although there was no significant change in the supply - demand fundamentals, the market was affected by factors such as low - valuation capital speculation [9][114]. Glass - The price of glass raw sheets was stable, but the market faced problems of weak demand and high inventory [117][118]. Methanol - Methanol prices were under pressure. In the short term, it was in a weak operation, and in the medium - term, the high - supply pressure was the main contradiction [120][123]. Urea - Urea prices were in a shock operation. The demand side improved stage by stage, and the price was supported by the reduction of inventory, but there was also policy pressure [125][128]. Styrene - Styrene was in a short - term shock. The pure benzene market was in a bottom - shock state, and the supply pressure of styrene was not large [129][130]. Soda Ash - The spot market of soda ash changed little, with stable prices and weak downstream demand [132]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) and Propylene - LPG prices had wide - range fluctuations affected by cost factors. Propylene supply had an incremental expectation, and the upward driving force was limited [135][136]. Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) - PVC prices were in a low - level shock. The high - production and high - inventory structure was difficult to change in the short term [144][145]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel oil prices continued to decline, and the center of the low - sulfur fuel oil market shifted downward at night [147]. 3.4 Shipping - The PA alliance's performance exceeded expectations, driving the sentiment of the container freight index (European line) to improve. The 2602 contract was in a shock market in the medium - term, and it was advisable to short the 2604 contract on rallies [149][161]. 3.5 Agricultural Products Short Fiber and Bottle Chip - Both short fiber and bottle chip faced medium - term pressure, and it was advisable to short the processing margin on rallies [163][164]. Offset Printing Paper - It was advisable to wait and see for offset printing paper, with stable prices and weak market demand [166][167]. Pure Benzene - Pure benzene was in a short - term shock, with inventory accumulation and weak downstream demand in the short term, but the supply was expected to shrink in the future [171][172]. Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - Palm oil was expected to have a short - term rebound after the release of negative factors. Soybean oil fluctuated mainly due to insufficient driving force from US soybeans [174][179]. Soybean Meal and Soybean - Soybean meal might follow the rebound of US soybeans. Soybean prices were in a shock [180][183]. Corn - Corn prices were in a shock operation, with price changes in different regions [184][185]. Sugar - Sugar prices were in a low - level shock, with different production and consumption situations in domestic and international markets [190][193]. Cotton - Cotton prices were in a shock - upward trend, and attention should be paid to downstream demand [195][197]. Eggs - Egg spot prices were in a shock [199]. Hogs - The market had already priced in the Winter Solstice expectation in advance, and the number of warehouse receipts increased [201][202]. Peanuts - Attention should be paid to the peanut spot market, with stable prices in most regions and small - scale price fluctuations in some areas [205][206].

Group 1 - The industrial silicon futures market is experiencing a downward trend, with the main contract slightly decreasing by 1.54% to 8305.0 CNY/ton as of the report date [1] - The spot price for industrial silicon was reported at 9603 CNY/ton, down by 45 CNY/ton from the previous trading day, with the lowest delivery price for 421 dropping to 8850 CNY/ton and the spot premium expanding to 510 CNY/ton [2] - Supply remains stable with southern production rates low and northern manufacturers slightly increasing output, indicating that the main variable currently depends on the operational status of large manufacturers [2] Group 2 - Demand is tightening as major integrated companies are increasing production cuts, leading to a slowdown in actual demand for installations, with the number of domestic companies winning provincial and municipal photovoltaic project bids decreasing, totaling 1232.8 MW, down by 345.7 MW week-on-week [2] - Future outlook suggests that while cost support may weaken, silicon prices could have some downward space; however, coal prices are expected to stabilize, limiting the potential decline in industrial silicon prices [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall sentiment in the commodity market was weak yesterday, and the prices of finished steel products continued to decline. The terminal demand remains weak, and the inventory pressure of hot-rolled coils is still prominent. Steel prices are expected to continue to fluctuate at the bottom, but attention should be paid to the winter storage price situation. Future attention should also be focused on the statements of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan, which may affect the macro environment [2]. - The price of iron ore is expected to fluctuate widely. The overall inventory of iron ore is high, and there is no sign of effectively resolving the structural inventory contradiction. The spot still has certain support. However, due to the expected loose supply pattern of iron ore in 2026 and the lack of imagination on the demand side, there is still pressure for the price to decline periodically within the range, and the support for the weighted contract is expected to be around 750 yuan/ton [5]. - For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, the future market trend will be led by the direction of the black metal sector and the issues of manganese ore for manganese silicon and electricity price increase for ferrosilicon. Particular attention should be paid to whether there are sudden situations in the manganese ore sector and their possible strong driving force on the market [9]. - The price of industrial silicon is expected to run weakly, with the support level at 8100 - 8300 yuan/ton. The supply and demand of industrial silicon are both weak, and the contradiction is not prominent. The recent low performance of coking coal futures and the decline of the polysilicon futures price have affected the overall sentiment of industrial silicon [12]. - The polysilicon market shows a tug - of - war between reality and expectation, and between the upstream and downstream of the industry. The price is expected to fluctuate widely within the range. Future attention should be paid to the progress of state - owned reserve procurement and the situation of warehouse receipt registration [14]. - For glass, in the absence of unexpected changes, a bearish view on the glass market is recommended. For soda ash, the market is expected to continue the weak and volatile trend in the short term, and a cautiously bearish view is maintained [17][19]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) Market Information - Rebar: The closing price of the main contract was 3079 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan/ton (-1.40%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 35,821 tons, a decrease of 10,455 tons compared to the previous day. The open interest of the main contract was 1.593747 million lots, an increase of 116,170 lots. The spot prices in Tianjin and Shanghai decreased by 20 yuan/ton [1]. - Hot - rolled coil: The closing price of the main contract was 3252 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan/ton (-1.18%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 113,732 tons, unchanged from the previous day. The open interest of the main contract was 1.108414 million lots, an increase of 29,738 lots. The spot prices in Lecong and Shanghai decreased by 40 yuan/ton and 30 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Strategy Viewpoints - Rebar: The production this week has significantly declined, and the inventory continues to be depleted, showing a neutral - to - stable overall performance. - Hot - rolled coil: The production has decreased, but the apparent demand remains neutral. It is difficult to deplete the inventory, and the social inventory is still at a relatively high level. The steel demand in the housing construction sector is under pressure, and future attention should be paid to the winter storage price [2]. Iron Ore Market Information - The main contract (I2605) closed at 757.50 yuan/ton, with a change of -0.39% (-3.00). The open interest changed by +12,385 lots to 441,800 lots. The weighted open interest was 905,300 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 784 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 75.17 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 9.03% [4]. Strategy Viewpoints - Supply: The overseas iron ore shipment volume increased slightly in the latest period. The shipment from Australia increased, mainly due to the rebound of Rio Tinto and FMG's shipments. The shipment from Brazil decreased, with a significant decline in Vale's shipments. The shipment from non - mainstream countries reached a high for the year, and the near - term arrival volume decreased month - on - month. - Demand: The average daily pig iron output was 232.3 million tons, a decrease of 2.38 million tons month - on - month. The number of blast furnaces under maintenance was more than those under复产, and the annual inspections increased with relatively long durations. The profitability of steel mills rebounded slightly after continuous decline, but less than 40% of steel mills were profitable. - Inventory: The port inventory continued to increase, and the steel mill inventory increased slightly. The overall data was marginally neutral after the decline in pig iron production, and the pressure on the raw material end was relatively limited. The overall inventory of iron ore is high, and there is no sign of effectively resolving the structural inventory contradiction, but the spot still has certain support [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Information - Manganese silicon: The main contract (SM603) closed down 0.07% at 5732 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5720 yuan/ton, with a converted basis of 5910 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and a premium of 178 yuan/ton over the futures price [8]. - Ferrosilicon: The main contract (SF603) closed up 0.33% at 5462 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5600 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and a premium of 138 yuan/ton over the futures price [8]. Strategy Viewpoints - The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is not ideal, with a loose structure, high inventory, and a weak downstream building materials industry. The supply - demand of ferrosilicon is basically balanced. The future market trend will be led by the direction of the black metal sector and the issues of manganese ore for manganese silicon and electricity price increase for ferrosilicon. Particular attention should be paid to the manganese ore sector [9]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Information - Industrial silicon: The main contract (SI2601) closed at 8340 yuan/ton, with a change of -3.86% (-335). The weighted open interest changed by +39,071 lots to 498,264 lots. The spot prices of 553 and 421 in East China decreased by 100 yuan/ton and 50 yuan/ton respectively [11]. - Polysilicon: The main contract (PS2601) closed at 55,610 yuan/ton, with a change of +1.95% (+1065). The weighted open interest changed by +12,302 lots to 270,926 lots. The average prices of N - type granular silicon, N - type dense material, and N - type re - feed material in the spot market were unchanged. The basis was -3310 yuan/ton. A new polysilicon platform company was registered on December 9, 2025 [13]. Strategy Viewpoints - Industrial silicon: The production in the southwest region is expected to decline in December due to the dry season, while the production in the northwest region is expected to be stable. The overall demand is slightly weak, and the price is expected to run weakly with support at 8100 - 8300 yuan/ton [12]. - Polysilicon: The production is expected to continue to decline in December, but the decline may be limited due to the capacity ramp - up in some northwest bases. The inventory accumulation pressure before the Spring Festival is difficult to relieve. The price is expected to fluctuate widely within the range, and attention should be paid to the progress of state - owned reserve procurement and warehouse receipt registration [14]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Information - Glass: The main contract closed at 984 yuan/ton, down 1.80% (-18). The sample enterprise's weekly inventory was 59.442 million cases, a decrease of 2.92 million cases (-4.68%). The top 20 long - position holders reduced their positions by 24,652 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced their positions by 2,658 lots [16]. - Soda ash: The main contract closed at 1125 yuan/ton, down 0.71% (-8). The sample enterprise's weekly inventory was 1.5386 million tons, a decrease of 48,800 tons (-4.68%). The top 20 long - position holders reduced their positions by 30,481 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced their positions by 31,328 lots [18]. Strategy Viewpoints - Glass: In November, several production lines in the domestic glass industry were shut down for maintenance. The real - estate industry still has downward pressure, and a bearish view on the glass market is recommended in the absence of unexpected changes [17]. - Soda ash: The overall supply pressure is still large, and the demand is relatively flat. The production enterprises mainly execute previous orders and have a strong mentality of stabilizing prices. The Alxa Phase II project is planned to be put into operation on December 11, which is expected to bring certain pressure to the market. The market is expected to continue the weak and volatile trend in the short term, and a cautiously bearish view is maintained [19].

Copper - Copper prices experienced fluctuations and weakened overnight, with LME copper inventory increasing by 1,125 tons to 165,675 tons and COMEX copper warehouse receipts rising by 3,208 tons to 401,929 tons [2][8] - The U.S. ADP report indicated an average of 4,750 new jobs added per week in the private sector, ending a four-week job loss streak, signaling positive labor market trends [2][8] - The market is cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting, with a consensus forming around a potential rate cut in December, while future rate paths and liquidity measures are under scrutiny [2][8] Nickel & Stainless Steel - LME nickel fell by 0.91% to $14,750 per ton, while SHFE nickel dropped by 1.18% to 116,360 yuan per ton, with LME inventory decreasing by 816 tons to 252,528 tons [3][9] - The Indonesian government is intensifying regulatory measures in the mining sector, imposing heavy fines on companies operating illegally beyond forest permits [3][9] - Nickel prices in the nickel-iron and stainless steel supply chain are showing upward pressure, but price ceilings remain limited due to marginal inventory reductions [3][9] Aluminum & Alumina - Alumina prices weakened, with AO2601 settling at 2,503 yuan per ton, down 2.15%, while SHFE aluminum also saw a decline to 21,835 yuan per ton, down 0.7% [4][11] - The aluminum market is experiencing seasonal pressures with inventory levels rising, and the supply of alumina remains high, contributing to downward price pressures [4][11] - The aluminum price is following a copper-aluminum ratio correction logic, with increasing concerns about downstream high-price stocking sentiment [4][11] Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon - Industrial silicon prices weakened, with the main contract settling at 8,340 yuan per ton, down 3.47%, while polysilicon prices showed strength, rising by 3.45% to 55,610 yuan per ton [5][11] - The photovoltaic supply chain is facing high inventory levels and production cuts, with price reduction sentiments not spreading upward [5][11] - The trading exchange has implemented measures to alleviate warehouse pressure, with slow growth in near-month warehouse receipts providing some support [5][11] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate futures fell by 1.23% to 92,800 yuan per ton, with average prices for battery-grade lithium carbonate remaining at 92,750 yuan per ton [6][12] - Weekly lithium production increased by 74 tons to 21,939 tons, with expectations for a 3% increase in December production [6][12] - Inventory levels are decreasing, but demand is showing signs of weakening, leading to a slight increase in total inventory days to 27 days [6][12]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting is scheduled for December 9-10, with results expected soon [1] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December is reported at 87.6% according to the latest CME "FedWatch" [2] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut was 89.4% on December 9, indicating a slight decrease in expectations [3] - On December 8, the probability was 86.2%, showing fluctuations in market sentiment leading up to the meeting [4] - The probability was 87% on December 5, reflecting consistent expectations for a rate cut [5] - On December 3, the probability was 89.2%, suggesting strong market anticipation for a rate cut [6] - There are notable divisions among the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members regarding the necessity of a rate cut, with 10 out of 19 members expressing skepticism [6] - President Trump is conducting final interviews for candidates to replace the Fed chair, with Kevin Hassett being a leading candidate [6][9] - Hassett believes the Fed has ample room to significantly lower the benchmark interest rate [7][8] Group 2: Silicon Industry Analysis - Industrial silicon prices are declining, with the main SI2601 contract closing at 8340 yuan/ton, down 3.47% [10] - In contrast, polysilicon prices are rising, with the main PS2601 contract closing at 55610 yuan/ton, up 3.45% [10] - The decline in industrial silicon prices is attributed to weakened supply and demand, with expectations of reduced demand from organic silicon producers [10] - Industrial silicon production is experiencing seasonal declines, with increased shutdowns in the southwest region due to environmental issues [10] - The recent drop in coal prices is expected to lower production costs for industrial silicon, further pressuring prices [11] - Polysilicon price increases are driven by news of a new "polysilicon capacity integration acquisition platform," which has garnered significant industry attention [12] - The establishment of this platform is seen as a potential positive development for market confidence in polysilicon prices [12] - Despite the positive news for polysilicon, overall demand in the photovoltaic industry remains weak, with many downstream companies operating at a loss [13] - Both industrial silicon and polysilicon are currently in a weak fundamental state, with inventory levels rising [13] - Future price movements for polysilicon may be limited due to ongoing supply-demand imbalances, while industrial silicon prices are expected to fluctuate around cost lines [14]

供应端：工业硅现货价格小幅下跌。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在9200-9400（-150）元/吨；421#硅在9600-9800 （-100）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格8600-8900（-150）元/吨，99硅价格在8600-8900（-150）元/吨。昆明、黄埔港、 西北、天津、新疆、四川、上海地区硅价回落，97硅价格回落。 消费端：据SMM统计，有机硅DMC报价13500-13700（0）元/吨。SMM报道，有机硅DMC市场持稳，当前DMC报 价在13500-14000元/吨，有机硅各主要产品上调后，下游情绪偏观望，但在预售单持续兑现下，企业库存压力不大， 预计短期内市场平稳运行运行。 策略 现货价格小幅下跌，西南开工大幅降低，新疆地区出现一定环保扰动，工业硅回落主要受焦煤等商品下跌影响。 目前工业硅盘面主要受整体商品情绪以及政策端消息震荡运行。需关注近期环保影响以及后续是否有相关产能退 出政策，目前工业硅估值偏低，若有政策推动，盘面或有上涨空间。 工业硅： 市场分析 2025-12-08，工业硅期货价格偏弱震荡运行，主力合约2601开于8745元/吨，最后收于8675元/吨，较前一日结算变 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【新能源周报】 12月排产更新，商品价格承压 国贸期货贵金属与新能源研究中心 2025-12-8 分析师：白素娜 从业资格证号：F3023916 投资咨询证号：Z0013700 助理分析师：陈宇森 从业资格证号： F03123927 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 目录 01 02 工业硅（SI） 多晶硅（PS ） 碳酸锂（LC ） 01 PART ONE 工业硅（SI） 多晶硅（PS） 工业硅 ：供给重心向西北转移 ，硅价上方压力较大 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议，期市有风险，投资需谨慎 影响因素 驱动 主要逻辑 供给端 偏多 （1）全国周产8.13 万吨，环比-8.69%；全国开炉238台，环比-19台。 （2）主产区：新疆地区周产4.92 万吨，环比-2.19%，开炉数环比一致。云南地区周产0.55 万吨，环比-19.77%，开炉数环比-11台。四川地区 周产0.25 万吨，环比-60.48%，开炉数环比-7台。 （3）11月产量40.1 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment rating information is provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The report focuses on industrial silicon and polysilicon, suggesting a low - buying strategy for polysilicon as an anti - involution core target, and also calls attention to the fermentation of the Xinjiang environmental protection incident regarding industrial silicon [1][2] Group 3: Summary by Catalog Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: For industrial silicon, Si2601's closing price was 8,805 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 105 yuan compared to T - 1. Its trading volume was 170,669 lots, and the open interest was 196,943 lots. For polysilicon, PS2601's closing price was 55,510 yuan/ton, down 1,405 yuan from T - 1, with a trading volume of 159,380 lots and an open interest of 97,991 lots [2] - **Basis**: Industrial silicon's spot premium (against East China Si5530) was +645 yuan/ton, while polysilicon's spot premium (against N - type re - investment) was - 3510 yuan/ton [2] - **Prices**: Xinjiang 99 silicon was priced at 8900 yuan/ton, Yunnan Si4210 at 10000 yuan/ton, and polysilicon - N - type re - investment material at 52300 yuan/ton [2] - **Profits**: Silicon factory profits for Xinjiang new - standard 553 were - 2464.5 yuan/ton, and for Yunnan new - standard 553 were - 3576 yuan/ton. Polysilicon enterprise profits were 7.7 yuan/kg [2] - **Inventory**: Industrial silicon's social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) was 55.8 million tons, enterprise inventory was 18.3 million tons, and industry inventory was 74.1 million tons. Polysilicon's factory inventory was 29.1 million tons [2] - **Raw Material Costs**: Silicon ore in Xinjiang was 320 yuan/ton, and in Yunnan was 270 yuan/ton. Other raw materials like washed coking coal, petroleum coke, electrodes also had corresponding prices [2] - **Prices in Related Industries**: In the polysilicon (photovoltaic) industry, silicon wafers (N - type - 210mm) were 1.48 yuan/piece, battery cells (TOPCon - 210mm) were 0.283 yuan/watt, etc. In the organic silicon industry, DMC was 13600 yuan/ton, and in the aluminum alloy industry, ADC12 was 21700 yuan/ton [2] - **Profits in Related Industries**: DMC enterprise profits were 1729 yuan/ton, and regenerative aluminum enterprise profits were - 390 yuan/ton [2] Macro and Industry News - On December 3rd, the Development and Reform Commission of Qinhuangdao, Hebei, released a public notice on the application for the third - batch project construction of wind and photovoltaic power generation in 2025. There were 7 projects in total, with a total scale of 782,500 kilowatts, including 4 wind power projects with a scale of 282,500 kilowatts and 3 photovoltaic projects with a scale of 500,000 kilowatts. Project owners included PetroChina, PowerChina, and other companies [2][4] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of industrial silicon was 0, and that of polysilicon was also 0, indicating a neutral view [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The industrial silicon futures price fluctuated within a narrow range, and the spot price remained stable. The market focus has shifted from production cuts in the southwest to the weakening demand. The industrial silicon industry lacks anti - involution policy expectations, and the futures market shows a bearish structure. Attention should be paid to the 8765 - 8840 range as a reference for long - short conversion [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Performance and Outlook - **Market Performance**: The closing price of Si2601 was 8,805 yuan/ton, with a decline of 1.12%. The trading volume was 170,669 lots, and the open interest was 196,943 lots, with a net increase of 3,924 lots [4]. - **Spot Price**: The 553 - grade silicon price in Sichuan was 9,350 yuan/ton, and the 553 (oxygen - passed) grade in Yunnan was 9,400 yuan/ton. The 421 - grade silicon price in Sichuan was 9,950 yuan/ton, 9,600 yuan/ton in Xinjiang, and 9,600 yuan/ton in Inner Mongolia [4]. - **Outlook**: Production cuts in the southwest have approached the seasonal low, while the operation in the northwest is basically stable, with a monthly output expected to be around 350,000 tons. Demand is weakening. The weekly output of polysilicon is 26,500 tons, a 3% week - on - week decrease, and the monthly output is expected to be within 115,000 - 120,000 tons. The average operating load rate of silicone monomers is 74.29%, a 2 - percentage - point decrease from last week. Alloy demand has entered the seasonal off - season [4]. 3.2 Market News - On December 5, 2025, the number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 7,288 lots, a net increase of 60 lots compared to the previous trading day [5]. - In October 2025, the export volume of industrial silicon was 45,073.36 tons, a 35.82% month - on - month decrease and a 30.78% year - on - year decrease [5]. - In October 2025, the export volume of China's primary silicone polyoxane was 40,600 tons, a 13.49% month - on - month decrease and a 5.65% year - on - year decrease. From January to October 2025, the cumulative export volume was 460,500 tons, a 1.51% year - on - year increase [5].

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Last week, industrial silicon prices fluctuated downward. The main reasons were that the polysilicon production in November fell short of expectations, and the slowdown in photovoltaic installation at the end of the year led to a significant decline in silicon wafer production scheduling, dragging down the demand for upstream silicon materials. The overall sentiment in the industrial products market cooled. From the supply side, the operating rate in Xinjiang remained around 85%, the output in the southwest region decreased significantly during the dry season, and there was little expectation of increased production in Gansu and Inner Mongolia, resulting in a slight contraction in supply. From the demand side, the market - supporting effect of leading polysilicon enterprises was poor, the futures price dropped significantly last week, and the production scheduling in December was expected to continue to decline. The price of silicon wafers fell continuously last week, and battery enterprises effectively managed their safety inventory, forcing silicon enterprises to cut prices and dump products. The production scheduling of silicon wafers in December decreased by more than 15%. The decline of battery cells slowed down last week, and leading integrated enterprises increased production cuts in December, with market decisions being divided and the demand side tightening faster. The finished - product inventory of component enterprises was relatively stable, but the actual demand for concentrated installation decreased at the end of the year, and the number of provincial and municipal photovoltaic projects won by domestic enterprises decreased. The total procurement capacity won last week was 1232.8MW, a week - on - week decrease of 345.7MW. The social inventory of industrial silicon rose to 558,000 tons last week, and the spot market of industrial silicon shifted downward due to the decline in futures prices [2][5][9]. - Overall, the official manufacturing PMI in November was still in the contraction range, the polysilicon production fell short of expectations, and the production scheduling of the photovoltaic mid - and downstream in December decreased significantly. The overall sentiment in the industrial products market cooled. Technically, the main contract fell below the 9000 level and continued to decline weakly. It is expected that the futures price of industrial silicon will enter a weak and volatile state [2][9]. Summary by Directory Market Data - The price of the industrial silicon main contract on December 5 was 8805 yuan/ton, a decrease of 325 yuan/ton or 3.56% from November 28. The price of oxygen - passing 553 spot was 9450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton or 1.05%. The price of non - oxygen - passing 553 spot remained unchanged at 9350 yuan/ton. The price of 421 spot remained unchanged at 9800 yuan/ton. The price of 3303 spot remained unchanged at 10450 yuan/ton. The price of organic silicon DMC spot was 13600 yuan/ton, an increase of 400 yuan/ton or 3.03%. The price of polysilicon dense material spot remained unchanged at 52 yuan/ton. The social inventory of industrial silicon rose to 558,000 tons, an increase of 0.8 tons or 1.45% [3]. Market Analysis and Outlook - **Macro - aspect**: China's official manufacturing PMI in November rose to 49.2, a month - on - month increase of 0.2%. The production index was 50, indicating that manufacturing production was generally stable. The new order index was 49.2, a month - on - month increase of 0.4%, indicating that the market demand in the manufacturing industry was generally stable. The raw material inventory index was 47.3, remaining unchanged month - on - month, indicating a continuous decrease in the inventory of major raw materials. The employment index was 48.4, a month - on - month increase of 0.1%, indicating a slight improvement in the employment sentiment of manufacturing enterprises. The supplier delivery index was 50.1, a month - on - month increase of 0.1%, indicating a slight acceleration in the supplier delivery time [6]. - **Supply - demand aspect**: As of December 28, the weekly output of industrial silicon decreased to 81,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 8.7% and a year - on - year increase of 5.1%. The number of open furnaces in the three major industrial silicon production areas dropped significantly to 238, and the overall furnace - opening rate dropped to 29.9%. Among them, the number of open furnaces in Xinjiang decreased to 140, remaining unchanged week - on - week; in Yunnan, it decreased by 5 to 14; in Sichuan and Chongqing, it decreased by 13 to 8; in Inner Mongolia, it decreased by 1 to 32. The demand side showed that the market - supporting effect of leading polysilicon enterprises was poor, the futures price dropped significantly last week, and the production scheduling in December was expected to continue to decline. The price of silicon wafers fell continuously last week, and the production scheduling of silicon wafers in December decreased by more than 15%. The decline of battery cells slowed down last week, and leading integrated enterprises increased production cuts in December. The finished - product inventory of component enterprises was relatively stable, but the actual demand for concentrated installation decreased at the end of the year, and the number of provincial and municipal photovoltaic projects won by domestic enterprises decreased [5][7][9]. - **Inventory aspect**: As of December 5, the national social inventory of industrial silicon rose to 558,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8000 tons. The terminal consumption slowed down, and the registered warehouse receipt volume of the exchange continued to increase. As of December 5, the warehouse receipt inventory of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange rose to 7288 lots, totaling 36,400 tons. It is expected that the warehouse receipt inventory will continue to increase under the background of weakening marginal demand at the end of the year [8]. Industry News - On December 5, Daquan Energy held a performance briefing for the third quarter. The company's directors, board secretary Sun Yicheng, and CFO and deputy general manager Shi Wei attended the meeting and responded to core issues such as the trend of silicon material prices, the impact of industry policies, the company's operating performance, and technological layout. The company's N - type dense material in polysilicon products accounted for more than 70%, and there was no specific construction plan for granular silicon technology at present [10]. - The EU is considering setting a "Made in Europe" target of up to 70% for specific goods including automobiles. The policy may force EU enterprises to purchase more expensive European components, bringing them an additional cost of more than 10 billion euros per year. The proposal is expected to be submitted on December 10. Germany and other countries have indicated that they will support the "Buy European" rule, which may affect the automotive industry and clean - technology fields such as solar panels [11]. Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts including industrial silicon production, export volume, social inventory, Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt inventory, main production area weekly output, organic silicon DMC production, polysilicon production, and various spot prices [13][14][16][17][18].