Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report Lithium - The short - term supply - demand is expected to increase, but there is no substantial switch. The marginal drive of new demand is limited after entering the off - season. The social inventory is still being depleted, but the digestion speed of warehouse receipts has slowed down recently. Attention should be paid to the possible acceleration of the release of upstream projects at high prices. The short - term sentiment may be adjusted, and the market is expected to fluctuate mainly. Follow - up attention should be paid to the resumption of production of large manufacturers before the end of the year and the marginal changes in downstream demand after entering the off - season [1]. Nickel - The macro - sentiment has improved, but the fundamental improvement is limited. The medium - term supply of nickel remains loose, which restricts the upward space of prices. The short - term driving force is weak. The market is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the main contract reference range of 116,000 - 122,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to changes in macro - expectations and Indonesian industrial policy news [2]. Stainless Steel - Policy and macro - driving forces are insufficient, and the fundamental structure has not improved significantly. There are still pressures on the supply side in terms of steel mill production scheduling and social inventory, and demand improvement is insufficient. The short - term market is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly, with the main contract reference range of 12,300 - 12,700 yuan/ton. Follow - up attention should be paid to steel mill production cuts and nickel - iron prices [4]. Tin - Recently, macro - fluctuations have been large. Considering the strong fundamentals, it is advisable to choose the opportunity to go long at low levels after the market sentiment stabilizes. Follow - up attention should be paid to changes in the macro - end and the supply recovery in Myanmar in the fourth quarter [7]. Industrial Silicon - The spot price of industrial silicon is stable with a slight increase, but the futures price fluctuates downward. There is a risk of inventory accumulation. It is still expected to fluctuate at a low level, with the main price fluctuation range of 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the implementation of organic silicon production cuts [8]. Polysilicon - The spot price of polysilicon is mainly stable, and the futures price fluctuates greatly. The market is still in a situation of both supply and demand decline, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in each link. It is expected to fluctuate in a high - level range. Attention should be paid to the support of the spot price [9]. Zinc - The supply - side pressure may be limited in the future. The demand side has no outstanding performance, and the domestic zinc ingot remains at a discount. The LME inventory starts to accumulate, and the risk of a short squeeze eases. The zinc ingot export may boost the domestic zinc price. The short - term market is expected to fluctuate, and the upward or downward breakthrough requires specific conditions [12]. Copper - In the medium - to long - term, the supply - demand contradiction supports the bottom center of copper prices to gradually move up. Follow - up attention should be paid to marginal changes in demand and overseas interest - rate cut expectations, with the main contract focusing on the support around 86,500 yuan/ton [14]. Aluminum - The short - term aluminum price may face downward pressure, with the main contract of Shanghai aluminum referring to the operating range of 21,400 - 22,000 yuan/ton next week. Attention should be paid to overseas monetary policy trends and marginal changes in the domestic fundamentals. The alumina price is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly [16]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - In the short - term, the price of ADC12 will maintain a relatively strong operation, with the main contract reference range of 20,600 - 21,200 yuan/ton. Follow - up attention should be paid to the improvement of scrap aluminum supply, changes in downstream procurement rhythm, and the inventory depletion process [18]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogues Price and Basis - **Lithium**: The average prices of SMM battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium hydroxide all increased slightly. The prices of some lithium raw materials remained unchanged [1]. - **Nickel**: The prices of various nickel products generally decreased, and the cost of some electrolytic nickel production processes changed [2]. - **Stainless Steel**: The prices of 304/2B stainless steel coils decreased slightly, and the prices of some raw materials remained stable or decreased slightly [4]. - **Tin**: The prices of SMM 1 tin and Yangtze 1 tin decreased, and the LME 0 - 3 premium changed [7]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The spot prices of industrial silicon were stable, and the futures price decreased [8]. - **Polysilicon**: The spot price of polysilicon was stable, and the futures price fluctuated greatly [9]. - **Zinc**: The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot decreased, and the import profit and loss and other indicators changed [12]. - **Copper**: The prices of various copper products decreased slightly, and the import profit and loss and other indicators changed [14]. - **Aluminum**: The prices of SMM A00 aluminum and alumina in some regions decreased, and the import profit and loss and other indicators changed [16]. - **Casting Aluminum Alloy**: The spot price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 was stable, and the scrap - refined price difference increased [18]. Monthly and Inter - monthly Spreads - **Lithium**: The inter - monthly spreads of lithium contracts changed, showing different trends [1]. - **Nickel**: The inter - monthly spreads of nickel contracts changed [2]. - **Stainless Steel**: The inter - monthly spreads of stainless steel contracts changed [4]. - **Tin**: The inter - monthly spreads of tin contracts changed significantly [7]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The inter - monthly spreads of industrial silicon contracts changed [8]. - **Polysilicon**: The inter - monthly spreads of polysilicon contracts changed [9]. - **Zinc**: The inter - monthly spreads of zinc contracts changed [12]. - **Copper**: The inter - monthly spreads of copper contracts changed [14]. - **Aluminum**: The inter - monthly spreads of aluminum contracts changed [16]. - **Casting Aluminum Alloy**: The inter - monthly spreads of casting aluminum alloy contracts changed [18]. Fundamental Data - **Lithium**: The production and demand of lithium carbonate increased in October, the import decreased in September, and the inventory decreased in October [1]. - **Nickel**: The production of refined nickel in China increased, the import volume increased significantly, and the inventory in various regions changed [2]. - **Stainless Steel**: The production of 300 - series stainless steel in China and Indonesia increased slightly, the import increased, the export decreased, and the inventory changed [4]. - **Tin**: The production of SMM refined tin in October increased, the import of tin ore in September decreased, and the inventory in various regions changed [7]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The production of industrial silicon in some regions changed, the production of some downstream products changed, and the inventory decreased [8]. - **Polysilicon**: The production and inventory of polysilicon and silicon wafers changed, and the import and export volumes also changed [9]. - **Zinc**: The production of refined zinc increased in October, the import decreased in September, the export increased significantly, and the inventory in various regions changed [12]. - **Copper**: The production of electrolytic copper decreased in October, the import increased in September, and the inventory in various regions changed [14]. - **Aluminum**: The production of alumina and electrolytic aluminum increased in October, the import and export volumes changed, and the inventory in various regions changed [16]. - **Casting Aluminum Alloy**: The production of regenerated and primary aluminum alloy ingots changed in October, the import and export volumes changed, and the inventory in various regions changed [18].

Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the content Core Views - The anti - involution progress in the new energy industry may be delayed, and the demand for lithium salts is strong [1] - Industrial silicon supply and demand both decline during the dry season, with slight inventory reduction, and the silicon price may fluctuate between 8200 - 9400 in the short term [5] - Polysilicon production and demand will both decline in November. The capacity acquisition plan may be delayed, and the price may range from 4.8 - 5.8 in the short term [6] - For lithium carbonate, supply recovery is limited, inventory is continuously decreasing, and the price is expected to be strong in the short term [85] Summary by Directory Industrial Silicon (SI) - **Supply**: National weekly production is 9.04 tons, a 0.57% week - on - week decrease. In October, the output was 45.22 tons, a 7.46% month - on - month increase and a 3.75% year - on - year decrease; November's planned output is 38.95 tons, a 13.88% month - on - month decrease and a 3.84% year - on - year decrease [5] - **Demand**: Polysilicon weekly production is 2.84 tons, a 2.54% week - on - week decrease; organic silicon DMC weekly production is 4.87 tons, a 1.67% week - on - week increase [5] - **Inventory**: Explicit inventory is 67.87 tons, a 1.96% week - on - week decrease; industry inventory is 45.20 tons, a 2.04% week - on - week decrease [5] - **Cost and Profit**: The national average cost per ton is 9240 yuan, a 0.05% week - on - week decrease; the average profit per ton is - 56 yuan, an 11 - yuan per - ton week - on - week decrease [5] - **Investment View**: The price may fluctuate between 8200 - 9400 in the short term [5] Polysilicon (PS) - **Supply**: National weekly production is 2.84 tons, a 2.54% week - on - week decrease. In October, the output was 13.4 tons, a 3.08% month - on - month increase and a 1.90% year - on - year increase; November's planned output is 12.01 tons, a 10.37% month - on - month decrease and a 7.62% year - on - year increase [6] - **Demand**: Silicon wafer weekly production is 12.98GW, a 1.96% week - on - week decrease; single - GW profit is - 4262 yuan, a 1000 - yuan week - on - week decrease [6] - **Inventory**: Factory inventory is 27.86 tons, a 0.61% week - on - week increase; registered warehouse receipts are 24360 tons, a 17.56% week - on - week decrease [6] - **Cost and Profit**: The national average cost per ton is 41633 yuan, a 0.07% week - on - week increase; the average profit per ton is 8617 yuan, a 30 - yuan per - ton week - on - week decrease [6] - **News**: The Chinese government has rejected the first proposal to set up an industry integration fund to acquire and shut down inefficient polysilicon production capacity [6] - **Investment View**: The price may range from 4.8 - 5.8 in the short term, maintaining the view of long - term fundamental improvement [6] Lithium Carbonate (LC) - **Supply**: National weekly production is 2.15 tons, a 0.05% week - on - week increase. In October, the output was 9.23 tons, a 5.73% month - on - month increase and a 55.00% year - on - year increase; November's planned output is about 9.21 tons, a 0.20% month - on - month decrease and a 43.56% year - on - year increase [85] - **Import**: In September, lithium carbonate imports were 1.96 tons, a 10.30% month - on - month decrease and a 20.49% year - on - year increase; lithium concentrate imports were 52.05 tons, a 10.61% month - on - month increase and a 38.01% year - on - year increase [85] - **Demand**: For lithium iron phosphate materials, weekly production is 9.99 tons, a 3.15% week - on - week increase; for ternary materials, weekly production is 1.98 tons, a 0.51% week - on - week increase. In October, new energy vehicle production was 177.20 million, a 9.59% month - on - month increase and a 21.13% year - on - year increase; sales were 171.50 million, a 6.92% month - on - month increase and a 19.92% year - on - year increase [85] - **Inventory**: Social inventory (including warehouse receipts) is 12.05 tons, a 2.81% week - on - week decrease; lithium salt factory inventory is 2.83 tons, a 7.96% week - on - week decrease; downstream inventory is 9.22 tons, a 1.11% week - on - week decrease [85] - **Investment View**: The price is expected to be strong in the short term, but attention should be paid to the impact of hedging pressure [85]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Oscillation [1] - Polysilicon: Oscillation [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Industrial silicon prices have a clearer lower limit, and it is more cost - effective to go long on dips. Polysilicon is expected to return to a volatile market, with the main contract operating between 51,000 - 56,000 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to range - trading opportunities [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon Industry Chain Prices - The Si2601 contract of industrial silicon decreased by 200 yuan/ton week - on - week to 9020 yuan/ton. The spot price of East China oxygen - blown 553 increased by 50 yuan/ton to 9500 yuan/ton, and the price of Xinjiang 99 remained flat at 8850 yuan/ton. The PS2601 contract of polysilicon increased by 830 yuan/ton to 54045 yuan/ton. The average transaction price of N - type re -投料 of polysilicon remained flat at 53200 yuan/ton [9] 3.2 Organic Silicon "Anti - involution", Silicon Wafer Enterprises Jointly Support Prices - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures main contract of industrial silicon fluctuated weakly. Southwest China may have further furnace shutdowns during the dry season. The social inventory decreased by 0.6 million tons week - on - week, and the sample factory inventory increased by 0.06 million tons. The balance sheet shows a slight inventory build - up in November and a de - stocking of about 1 million tons in December, but "anti - involution" in organic silicon may affect December's de - stocking [11] - **Organic Silicon**: The price of organic silicon increased. The industry reached a consensus on production cut and price support. The overall enterprise start - up rate was 73.62%, the weekly output was 48,700 tons (a 1.67% increase), and the inventory was 42,100 tons (a 3.22% decrease). The success of "anti - involution" depends on production cut implementation [12] - **Polysilicon**: The futures main contract of polysilicon fluctuated. The spot mainly delivered previous orders. Considering the dry season, the production schedule in November is expected to drop to 115,000 tons. As of November 13, the factory inventory was 267,000 tons (an increase of 0.8 million tons). The spot price depends on the game between policy and fundamentals. It is expected to remain flat in November [13] - **Silicon Wafer**: The price of silicon wafers was volatile. After a price cut on Tuesday, several enterprises jointly raised prices on Thursday. The production cut is not obvious, with a production schedule of 57 - 58GW in November. As of November 13, the inventory was 18.42GW (an increase of 0.9GW). The price is expected to fluctuate [14] - **Battery Cell**: The price of battery cells continued to decline. Indian demand shifted, and domestic demand also decreased. As of November 10, the inventory was 5.81GW (an increase of 1.96GW). The production schedule in November is 57.4GW. The price may loosen further [15] - **Component**: The component price was basically stable. Some high - power component quotes increased. The demand declined, and the production schedule in November is expected to be 44.4GW (a decrease of 1GW). There are concerns about a significant decline in December's production schedule [16] 3.3 Investment Suggestions - **Industrial Silicon**: After hedging, short - term price drops are unlikely to cause production cuts. The price needs to break through 10,000 yuan/ton to increase supply. It is more cost - effective to go long on dips [3] - **Polysilicon**: The spot price is expected to remain stable in November. The futures may return to a volatile market, with the main contract operating between 51,000 - 56,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to range - trading opportunities [3] 3.4 Hot News Summaries - **Silicon Wafer Enterprises Jointly Support Prices**: Several silicon wafer enterprises jointly raised prices to support "anti - involution" competition. The actual transaction depends on downstream acceptance [18] - **Positive Results in Photovoltaic Industry Self - regulation**: The self - regulation of the photovoltaic industry has achieved positive results. Product prices are gradually stabilizing, and the situation where polysilicon prices are below cost has improved [18] - **Statement on Online False News**: The association is promoting industry self - regulation and "anti - involution" work. Online rumors are false information [19] 3.5 Industry Chain High - frequency Data Tracking - **Industrial Silicon**: It includes data on spot prices, weekly production in different regions, social inventory, and sample factory inventory [21][24][26][28] - **Organic Silicon**: It includes data on DMC spot prices, weekly profits, factory inventory, and weekly production [32][34] - **Polysilicon**: It includes data on spot prices, weekly gross profits, factory weekly inventory, and enterprise weekly production [36][40] - **Silicon Wafer**: It includes data on spot prices, profit calculations, factory weekly inventory, and enterprise weekly production [41][43][44] - **Battery Cell**: It includes data on spot prices, profit calculations, export factory weekly inventory, and enterprise monthly production [49][51][54][55] - **Component**: It includes data on spot prices, profit calculations, finished product inventory, and enterprise monthly production [57][59][60][61]

1. Report Information - Report Title: Energy and Chemical Weekly Report [1] - Date: November 14, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team, including researchers for different products such as crude oil, asphalt, polyester, etc. [4] 2. Industry Investment Ratings - No specific overall industry investment rating is provided. However, individual product trends and potential investment suggestions are given: - For crude oil, it is recommended to take a short - term bearish approach, such as shorting on rebounds or using reverse spreads [8]. - For asphalt, it is suggested to try shorting as the price is expected to decline [30]. - For polyester (PTA and ethylene glycol), PTA is expected to decline slightly, and ethylene glycol is expected to oscillate at a low level. It is better to wait and see [56]. - For short - fiber, the price is expected to be weak, and it is advisable to wait and see [67]. - For polyolefins, the price is expected to remain under pressure and oscillate at the bottom. Although there may be short - term replenishment demand, it is mainly a weak support [85]. - For soda ash, the short - term is expected to oscillate strongly, and it is recommended to wait for policy implementation for trading [115]. - For industrial silicon, it is recommended to wait and see as the price oscillates due to the balance of long and short factors [147]. - For polysilicon, it is recommended to wait and see and conduct right - side trading after policy implementation [165]. - For pulp, it is recommended to wait and see due to the short - term strong trend but the pressure at the previous high [184]. 3. Core Views - The energy and chemical industry is generally affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost changes, and policy expectations. Most products face supply - side pressure, and the demand side shows different degrees of weakness. Crude oil and related products are affected by global supply - demand imbalances, while some chemical products are affected by industry - specific factors such as production capacity changes and downstream demand trends [8][30][85]. 4. Summary by Product Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: International oil prices fluctuated with a downward trend. WTI and SC prices decreased slightly, while Brent increased slightly. The market is in a situation of supply surplus in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the 1st quarter of 2026 [7]. - **Supply**: OPEC + supply release is relatively stable, but the suspension of production increase in the 1st quarter of 2026 has limited support. Non - OPEC supply continues to increase, and the supply surplus is deepening [9][11]. - **Demand**: EIA and IEA expect global demand growth to be mainly driven by non - OECD countries, but the growth rate is relatively slow compared to supply growth [10][11]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Take a short - term bearish approach, such as shorting on rebounds or using reverse spreads [8]. Asphalt - **Market Performance**: Futures prices declined slightly, and spot prices in various regions also decreased. The cost side is affected by the weakening of the crude oil market, and the demand side in the northern region has declined significantly [29]. - **Supply**: Some refineries plan to adjust production or conduct maintenance, and the operating rate is expected to decline slightly [29][32]. - **Demand**: The demand in the northern region has decreased significantly due to weather factors, and the demand in the southern region has also declined marginally [29][33]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Try shorting as the price is expected to decline [30]. Polyester (PTA and Ethylene Glycol) - **Market Performance**: PTA cost support was strong first and then weak, and ethylene glycol prices oscillated downward [55]. - **Supply**: PTA supply is expected to be sufficient, and ethylene glycol supply is expected to increase with the restart of some devices and new device trials [55][56]. - **Demand**: The demand for polyester is stable in the short term but has a weakening expectation in the future [56]. - **Operation Suggestion**: PTA is expected to decline slightly, and ethylene glycol is expected to oscillate at a low level. It is better to wait and see [56]. Short - fiber - **Market Performance**: The price of polyester short - fiber in the East China market declined oscillatingly last week [67]. - **Supply**: The supply is sufficient, and the operating rate is expected to remain stable [67][69]. - **Demand**: The downstream demand is weak, and the support for short - fiber is gradually weakening [68][69]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The price is expected to be weak, and it is advisable to wait and see [67]. Polyolefins - **Market Performance**: Futures and spot prices of polyolefins declined slightly. The market is in a situation of bottom - oscillating due to supply - demand contradictions and cost - side pressure [73][84]. - **Supply**: The new production capacity is gradually released, and the production is expected to increase. Some maintenance devices will restart, and the production loss will decrease [85][86]. - **Demand**: The peak season is over, and the demand is expected to weaken. The downstream mainly conducts just - in - time procurement, and the demand support is weak [85]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The price is expected to remain under pressure and oscillate at the bottom. Although there may be short - term replenishment demand, it is mainly a weak support [85]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The main contract of soda ash oscillated strongly, and the price fluctuated slightly. The production decreased slightly, and the demand increased slightly [114]. - **Supply**: The overall supply is loose, and the new production capacity is expected to be released in the future, increasing the supply pressure [119]. - **Demand**: The demand from downstream glass industries is weak, and the inventory of glass is high, which may further reduce the demand for soda ash [131][132]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The short - term is expected to oscillate strongly, and it is recommended to wait for policy implementation for trading [115]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Performance**: The spot price is stable, and the futures price oscillated after a short - term rise. The price is affected by factors such as production reduction in the southwest region and news in the photovoltaic industry [147]. - **Supply**: The production in the southwest region has decreased due to factors such as power cost increases, and the overall supply is affected [148]. - **Demand**: The demand from the polycrystalline silicon and organic silicon industries has different trends. The demand from the polycrystalline silicon industry is relatively stable, while the organic silicon industry plans to reduce production [149][150]. - **Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to wait and see as the price oscillates due to the balance of long and short factors [147]. Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The price oscillated with a weak start and then a strong end. The price is affected by policy expectations and market news [164]. - **Supply**: The supply is still higher than the demand, and the actual production reduction needs to be observed [165]. - **Demand**: The terminal demand has not recovered from the weak stage, and the price increase of polysilicon is limited by the downstream acceptance [165][168]. - **Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to wait and see and conduct right - side trading after policy implementation [165]. Pulp - **Market Performance**: The futures price of pulp increased slightly, and the spot price of imported pulp also increased. The short - term trend is strong, but there is pressure at the previous high [183]. - **Supply**: The supply pressure from domestic and foreign pulp mills is still released to the domestic market, and the inventory has increased [184]. - **Demand**: The performance of downstream base papers is still differentiated, and the packaging paper market is good, while other base paper prices are stable [184]. - **Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to wait and see due to the short - term strong trend but the pressure at the previous high [184].

Core Insights - The industrial silicon market has seen a slight increase in prices due to supply constraints and cost support, but weak demand remains a concern for future price movements [1][2] Supply Dynamics - Supply from the southwestern region continues to decrease, tightening the market and supporting prices; Inner Mongolia's stable output is affected by raw material supply issues, leading to potential price increases; Gansu's slight production cut due to rising costs also supports prices; in Xinjiang, rising costs from electricity, silicon coal, and transportation due to weather are pushing prices up [2][3] Demand Analysis - Demand from three core consumption sectors shows divergence: - The organic silicon sector has seen prices rise from 11,000 CNY/ton to 11,200 CNY/ton, supported by firm pricing intentions and pre-sale orders, despite overall production cuts reducing actual procurement needs [2] - The polysilicon sector maintains a weak and stable price environment, with ongoing production cuts limiting demand for industrial silicon [2] - The aluminum alloy sector benefits from a positive trend in the automotive manufacturing market, with prices rising from 21,095 CNY/ton to 21,135 CNY/ton, indicating steady growth in demand for industrial silicon [2] Price Movements - From November 6 to November 12, the main contract price for industrial silicon increased from 9,065 CNY/ton to 9,195 CNY/ton, a rise of 130 CNY/ton; the national average price on November 12 was 9,207 CNY/ton, up 33 CNY/ton [1][3] - Specific grades of industrial silicon saw price increases: 553 rose by 49 CNY/ton to 8,757 CNY/ton, 441 increased by 37 CNY/ton to 9,092 CNY/ton, and 421 went up by 14 CNY/ton to 9,672 CNY/ton [1][3]

日期 2025 年 11 月 14 日 工业硅日报 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 行业 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA/MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅/多晶 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、行情回顾与展望 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, after production cuts in the southwest region, the supply - demand pattern may improve, and the overall inventory has decreased. The industrial silicon futures market is mainly affected by overall commodity sentiment and policy - related news. If there are policies to promote, there may be room for the price to rise. For polysilicon, both supply and demand have weakened, with large inventory pressure and average consumer - end performance. The market is affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality, and the policy is still being promoted, so the price is expected to fluctuate mainly [3][8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - **Futures Market**: On November 13, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The main contract 2601 opened at 9150 yuan/ton and closed at 9145 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton (-0.22%) from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2511 was 267,758 lots at the close, and the total number of warehouse receipts was 45,387 lots, a decrease of 549 lots from the previous day [1]. - **Supply Side**: The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - blown 553 silicon was 9400 - 9600 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9700 - 9800 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - blown 553 was 8800 - 8900 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8800 - 8900 yuan/ton. The silicon prices in various regions were flat. The total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions on November 13 was 546,000 tons, a decrease of 6000 tons from last week. The inventory in social ordinary warehouses was 127,000 tons, unchanged from last week, and the inventory in social delivery warehouses was 419,000 tons, a decrease of 6000 tons from last week [1]. - **Consumption Side**: According to SMM statistics, the quotation of organic silicon DMC was 12,000 - 12,500 yuan/ton. The domestic DMC market showed a trend of first stabilizing and then rising this week, with the current quotation range up about 1100 yuan/ton from the average price last week. Shandong monomer enterprises quoted 12,500 yuan/ton, and other domestic monomer enterprises stopped quoting [2]. Strategy - Short - term interval operation, and long positions can be taken on dips for contracts during the dry season [3]. Polysilicon Market Analysis - **Futures Market**: On November 13, 2025, the main contract 2601 of polysilicon futures fluctuated strongly, opening at 53,500 yuan/ton and closing at 54,195 yuan/ton, a 3.69% increase from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 144,026 lots (140,617 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 277,916 lots [4]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price of polysilicon weakened slightly. The price of N - type material was 49.40 - 54.90 yuan/kg, and the price of N - type granular silicon was 50.00 - 51.00 yuan/kg. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 267,000 tons, a 3.09% month - on - month increase, and the silicon wafer inventory was 18.42GW, a 5.14% month - on - month increase. The weekly polysilicon output was 26,800 tons, a - 0.74% month - on - month change, and the silicon wafer output was 13.12GW, a - 2.45% month - on - month change. The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained stable [6][7]. Strategy - Short - term interval operation, and the 12 - contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 50,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global macro situation this week focuses on changes in US dollar liquidity. Although there is short - term tightness, it won't have a significant impact on major asset prices. There are two factors for improvement: marginal easing of monetary policy and normal release of funds in the TGA account when the US government resumes work [7]. - In October, China's export growth was weaker than expected, but there were more positive signs in inflation data, and consumer data may slightly exceed expectations [7]. - In November, the macro environment enters a vacuum period, and major assets may enter a short - term shock period. However, the overall allocation idea in the fourth quarter remains unchanged, and the macro environment is still favorable for risk assets. It is recommended to allocate major assets evenly in the fourth quarter, hold long positions in stock indices, non - ferrous metals (copper, lithium carbonate, aluminum, tin), and precious metals, and increase positions appropriately if there is a correction [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: The short - term tightness of US dollar liquidity won't have a large impact on major asset prices. Monetary policy is marginally easing, and the release of TGA account funds after the US government resumes work can relieve the short - term pressure [7]. - **Domestic Macro**: October's export growth was weaker than expected, but there were positive signs in inflation data, and consumer data may slightly exceed expectations [7]. - **Asset Views**: In November, major assets may enter a shock period. The overall allocation idea in the fourth quarter remains unchanged, and it is recommended to evenly allocate major assets, hold long positions in stock indices, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals, and increase positions if there is a correction [7]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: Catalyzed by technology events, the growth style is active. There is a risk of overcrowding in small - cap funds, and the short - term trend is expected to be a volatile upward [8]. - **Stock Index Options**: The overall trading volume has slightly declined, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile [8]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market continues to be weak. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by policy, fundamental repair, and tariff factors [8]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: Due to the easing of geopolitical and economic and trade situations, precious metals are in a phased adjustment. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by the US fundamentals, Fed's monetary policy, and global equity market trends [8]. 3.2.3 Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The peak season in the third quarter has passed, and there is a lack of upward momentum. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to the rate of freight decline in September [8]. 3.2.4 Steel and Iron Ore - **Steel**: In the off - season, the fundamentals are under pressure, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by the issuance of special bonds, steel exports, and iron - water production [8]. - **Iron Ore**: The short - term fundamentals are stable, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by overseas mine production and shipment, domestic iron - water production, weather, port inventory, and policy [8]. 3.2.5 Black Building Materials - **Coke**: The game between coking and steel enterprises continues, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by steel mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment [8]. - **Coking Coal**: The market sentiment is weak, but the spot price is rising. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment [8]. - **Silicon Iron**: The supply - demand driving force is limited, and it follows the valuation fluctuations of coal. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by raw material costs and steel procurement [8]. - **Manganese Silicon**: After the first - round steel procurement inquiry is announced, the price follows the decline of coking coal. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by cost prices and overseas quotes [8]. - **Glass**: Prices have been lowered in various regions, and downstream purchasing sentiment is weak. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by spot sales [8]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply exceeds demand, and cost - driven upward movement is limited. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by soda ash inventory [8]. - **Aluminum Oxide**: The fundamentals are still in an oversupply situation, and the price is under pressure. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by ore复产 and electrolytic aluminum复产 [8]. - **Aluminum**: The stock - futures linkage leads to an upward - volatile price. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile upward, affected by macro risks, supply disruptions, and demand [8]. - **Zinc**: The export window is open, and the price is fluctuating at a high level. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by macro risks and zinc ore supply [8]. - **Lead**: Social inventory is slightly increasing, and the price is fluctuating. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by supply disruptions and battery exports [8]. - **Nickel**: Market sentiment is improving, and the price is fluctuating. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by macro and geopolitical changes, and Indonesian policies [8]. - **Stainless Steel**: Warehouse receipts are decreasing, and the price is fluctuating. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by Indonesian policies and demand growth [8]. - **Tin**: The inventory of Shanghai tin continues to decrease, and the price is fluctuating. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by the resumption of production in Wa State and demand improvement [8]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply in the southwest is rapidly decreasing, and the price is fluctuating. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by supply - side production cuts and photovoltaic installations [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The resumption of production expectation is fluctuating, and the price may fluctuate significantly. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by demand, supply disruptions, and technological breakthroughs [8]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: There is a lack of short - term driving forces, and the price is expected to be volatile, affected by OPEC+ production policies and the Middle East geopolitical situation [10]. - **LPG**: Refinery output has decreased, and import costs are under pressure. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by cost factors such as crude oil and overseas propane [10]. - **Asphalt**: The spot price in Shandong has stabilized, and the futures price is expected to be volatile, affected by sanctions and supply disruptions [10]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The futures price is volatile, and attention should be paid to the Russia - Ukraine conflict. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by geopolitics and crude oil prices [10]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The refined oil market is strong, and the price may be on a volatile upward trend, affected by crude oil prices [10]. - **Methanol**: High inventory suppresses the price, and overseas disturbances are not significant. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by the macro - energy situation and overseas developments [10]. - **Urea**: Export information boosts the spot market, and the futures price is expected to be volatile in the short term, affected by export quotas and coal prices [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The spot market is loose, and there is little hope of reversing the downward trend in the short term. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile downward, affected by coal and oil prices, port inventory, and Sino - US trade friction [10]. - **PX**: The market sentiment is rational, and the processing fee is strongly supported by strong supply and demand. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by crude oil fluctuations and macro changes [10]. - **PTA**: The market sentiment is flat, and the basis is under pressure. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by crude oil fluctuations and macro changes [10]. - **Short - Fiber**: Consumers tend to buy on dips, and attention should be paid to the off - peak and peak season conversion. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by downstream yarn mill purchasing and peak - season demand [10]. - **Bottle Chips**: The market performance is flat, and it follows the cost passively. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by bottle - chip enterprise production cuts and new device commissioning [10]. - **Propylene**: Inventory needs time to be digested, and the price is expected to be on a volatile downward trend, affected by oil prices and the domestic macro situation [10]. - **PP**: Maintenance support is limited, and the price is expected to be on a volatile downward trend, affected by oil prices and domestic and overseas macro situations [10]. - **Plastic**: Downstream transactions have increased, but maintenance support is limited. The price is expected to be on a volatile downward trend, affected by oil prices and domestic and overseas macro situations [10]. - **Styrene**: There are still concerns about over - inventory, and the price is expected to be on a volatile downward trend, affected by oil prices, macro policies, and device operations [10]. - **PVC**: The weak reality suppresses the price, and it is expected to be volatile, affected by expectations, costs, and supply [10]. - **Caustic Soda**: With low valuation and weak expectations, the price is expected to be volatile, affected by market sentiment, production, and demand [10]. 3.2.7 Agriculture - **Oils and Fats**: Rapeseed oil is relatively strong, and attention should be paid to the effectiveness of upper - level technical resistance. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile upward, affected by US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data [10]. - **Protein Meal**: US soybeans are testing the upper - level resistance, and it is recommended to hold reverse spreads on Dalian soybean meal. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by weather, domestic demand, macro factors, and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade wars [10]. - **Corn/Starch**: The market is in a short - term tight situation, and the price is expected to be volatile at a high level, affected by demand, macro factors, and weather [10]. - **Pigs**: Supply and demand are loose, and the price is weak. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile downward, affected by breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [10]. - **Natural Rubber**: With the approaching expiration of the November contract, there may be a pulse - like upward movement. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by production - area weather, raw material prices, and macro changes [10]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by crude oil fluctuations [10]. - **Cotton**: The price has slightly declined, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by demand and inventory [10]. - **Sugar**: The price is fluctuating within a narrow range, and the short - term trend is expected to be a volatile downward, affected by imports and Brazilian production [10]. - **Pulp**: The market is dominated by funds, and the long - position advantage remains. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by macro - economic changes and US dollar - denominated quotes [10]. - **Double - Glued Paper**: In the tendering peak season, the price is expected to stabilize in November and be volatile, affected by production and sales, education policies, and paper - mill operations [10]. - **Logs**: In the de - inventory cycle, the price is expected to be volatile, affected by special port fees, shipment volume, and dispatch volume [10].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply of industrial silicon will shrink next week as the dry - season production cuts in Southwest China are more significant, despite the复产 expectations in Northwest China [2] - The downstream demand for industrial silicon is diverse. Organic silicon maintains a rigid - demand state but has limited consumption upside due to the sluggish terminal market. The short - term weekly production of polysilicon is still high, but there are expectations of production cuts, which may reduce the demand for industrial silicon. The demand from the aluminum alloy industry is stable but has limited marginal impact on prices [2] - Industrial silicon follows the polysilicon trend and remains stable. It is expected to have a higher probability of oscillating upward in the future. It is recommended to go long on dips [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 9,195 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; the main contract position is 262,136 hands, down 8,823 hands; the net position of the top 20 is - 64,101 hands, up 1,755 hands; the GZEE warehouse receipts are 45,936 hands, down 143 hands; the basis between the December and January industrial silicon contracts is 0, unchanged [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 9,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 421 silicon is 9,750 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the Si main contract is 305 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the DMC spot price is 11,800 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average prices of silica, petroleum coke, clean coal, wood chips, and graphite electrodes (400mm) are 410 yuan/ton, 2,410 yuan/ton, 1,850 yuan/ton, 490 yuan/ton, and 12,250 yuan/ton respectively, all unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly industrial silicon output is 402,800 tons, an increase of 36,000 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon is 552,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons; the monthly import volume is 70,232.72 tons, an increase of 1,939.85 tons; the monthly export volume is 602.27 tons, a decrease of 6,409.29 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC is 44,900 tons, an increase of 700 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot market is 21,400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 15.95 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the weekly average spot price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 6.5 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy is 23,495.34 tons, a decrease of 5,568.37 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC is 69.26%, an increase of 0.7%; the monthly aluminum alloy output is 1,776,000 tons, an increase of 141,000 tons; the monthly aluminum alloy export volume is 23,495.34 tons, a decrease of 5,568.37 tons [2] 3.6 Industry News - On November 11, 2025, Hesheng Silicon Industry announced that Fuda Industrial plans to reduce its shareholding by no more than 27.0705 million shares (2.29% of the total share capital) in the next three months for its own capital needs [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The industrial silicon futures price showed a weak and volatile trend. The Si2601 contract closed at 9,180 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.54%. The supply has decreased from 98,000 tons to 90,000 tons, and the total demand is 386,000 tons. The resistance in the short - term upper intensive trading area is still strong, and the spot price stalemate restricts the upward momentum of the futures price. The price is in a convergent and volatile state [4]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Market Performance - The industrial silicon futures price was weakly volatile. The Si2601 contract closed at 9,180 yuan/ton, down 0.54%. The trading volume was 326,774 lots, and the open interest was 270,959 lots, with a net decrease of 10,544 lots. The spot price was stable, with the 553 price ranging from 9,100 to 9,500 yuan/ton and the 421 price ranging from 9,750 to 9,950 yuan/ton [4]. 3.2 Market News - On November 11, the number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 46,079 lots, a net decrease of 176 lots from the previous trading day. On November 7, the industrial silicon market inventory was 452,400 tons, a weekly increase of 1.05% and a year - on - year increase of 42.49%. The weekly output was 90,900 tons, a weekly decrease of 7.85% and a year - on - year increase of 1.2%. On October 30, Hesheng Silicon Industry released its Q3 2025 report. Its operating income in the first three quarters was 15.206 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 25.35%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was - 321 million yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 122.1%. The net cash flow from operating activities was 3.727 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 104.94%. In the third quarter, the operating income was 5.43 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 23.51% and a quarter - on - quarter increase of 19.42%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 76 million yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 84.12% and a quarter - on - quarter increase of 111.52% [5]. 3.3 Future Outlook - The weekly output has decreased from 98,000 tons to 90,000 tons. Pay attention to the implementation of the expected production cuts in the southwest region. In the short term, it is difficult to see a reversal in supply and demand. The expected output of polysilicon is also decreasing, and the total demand is 386,000 tons. The resistance in the short - term upper intensive trading area is still strong, and the stalemate in the spot price restricts the upward momentum of the futures price. The price of the main contract is still oscillating within the adjustment range after the anti - involution competition [4].