格隆汇1月27日｜高盛集团策略师表示，随着对经济的乐观情绪抵消地缘政治的不确定性，投资者的风 险偏好情绪创五年来新高。高盛策略师在报告中写道，其风险偏好指标上周触及1.09，为2021年以来最 高，是1991年有数据以来的第98百分位。"如此高企的风险偏好水平属罕见，"高盛团队表示，历史上只 有另外六次高于1.0的情况。不过，这未必意味着应转向看空。他们称，宏观环境具有支持性可维系股 票回报。 ...

高盛虽提示短期波动风险，却将2026年金价目标上调至5400美元，花旗则直接看好金价突破5000美元以上。这些机构的动作，本质是顺应全球货币逻辑变 化，提前布局核心资产。 近期全球硬资产价格持续走高，这一趋势的源头，始于北极圈一场被普遍误读的布局。 2026年1月21日达沃斯论坛期间，美国与北约就北极资源和安全布局举行闭门磋商，媒体多将其解读为地缘博弈、遏制俄罗斯的举措。 实则这场磋商背后，是围绕全球货币秩序重构的深层博弈，也是推动黄金价格逼近5000美元大关的核心原因。结合盘面走势与华尔街机构动向，可清晰梳理 出这一影响普通人财富的关键变局。 格陵兰岛的战略价值，远不止于军事层面。这片看似冰天雪地的区域，蕴藏着全球重要的未开发稀土矿藏与可观的黄金矿脉。美国近年持续推动与丹麦的合 作，谋求格陵兰岛的军事进入权与资源开发权限，磋商中反复提及矿场开发协同条款，本质是争夺未来全球硬资源的主导权，为美元信用寻找实物背书。 当前美国债务规模已达38万亿美元，靠军事与信用支撑的美元霸权面临持续压力，急需稀土、黄金、石油等硬资产，对冲美元超发带来的贬值风险。 黄金价格上涨并非单纯受避险情绪驱动，局部冲突的影响已被市场消化， ...

11:20 黄金ETF持仓报告 公布机构：美国SPDR Gold Trust 当前总持仓 1086.53 吨黄金 黄金ETF总持合变化 更新时间:2026-01-2 截至1月26日，全球最大的黄金ETF SPDR Gold Trust持仓量为1086.53吨，较前一个交易日维持不变。1月26日，地缘政治紧张局势持续，再加上特朗普政策 不确定性，引发的"信用贬值"交易升温等因素综合作用，现货黄金又暴涨了，历史性突破5000美元/盎司，最高更是狂飙至5110.43美元/盎司，随后有所回 落，收于5008.35美元/盎司，涨25.44美元/0.51%。 分析认为，此轮狂飙由多重全球动荡驱动：特朗普政策的高度不确定性、多地地缘政治紧张局势升级以及市场对央行独立性的担忧，共同促使投资者在"错 失恐惧症"推动下大举涌入黄金等避险资产。在全球避险情绪的猛烈驱动下，投资者正以前所未有的规模涌入这一传统避险资产，忽视高位，显示出强烈的 买入动能。 基本面消息，近期，美国政府的一系列举动——包括对美联储独立性的攻击、吞并格陵兰岛的威胁以及对委内瑞拉的军事干预——极大地惊扰了市场。这种 不确定性加剧了所谓的"贬值交易"（debas ...

高盛首席美国经济学家戴维梅里克尔(David Mericle)在投资者报告中表示，预计美联储今年将实施两次 降息，首次降息落地6月。 梅里克尔称，市场预计美联储主席鲍威尔将在此次会议上强调，此前的降息举措将助力稳定劳动力市 场，目前美联储已具备充分条件评估降息的实际效果。 今日周二(1月27日)亚盘时段，伦敦银目前交投于109.23一线上方，今日开盘于103.93美元/盎司，截至发 稿，伦敦银暂报110.97美元/盎司，上涨6.80%，最高触及111.12美元/盎司，最低下探103.34美元/盎司， 目前来看，伦敦银盘内短线偏向看涨走势。 【要闻速递】 高盛集团预计，美联储将在本周的议息会议上维持利率不变。该行指出，沃勒和鲍曼两位理事可能支持 这一决定，而特朗普去年刚任命的理事米兰将成为唯一持反对意见者。 【最新伦敦银行情解析】 如果白银价格突破120美元/盎司，则将为挑战130美元水平打开大门。若银价进一步上涨，下一个目标 将是150美元。 另外投资者将关注周二公布的美国ADP就业变化数据以及消费者信心指数，以评估美国经济韧性及货币 政策前景。市场焦点则将进一步集中于周三的美联储利率决议。 若射击之星形态触 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：李丹Fintalk 1月26日，高盛私人财富部如约开了个客户年会： 2026 亚洲投资者大会（Asia Investor Conference 2026）#AIC2026 这个会议是高盛（Goldman Sachs）在亚太地区举办的旗舰投资者会议之一，专为高端投资者、私人财 富客户、机构投资者等群体设计。 而最近的焦点人物，著名的经济学家金刻羽教授，作为会议嘉宾也出席了会议。 | | 似安代荣略亚太区主管 人对备管理资本市场, 股票结构方案及全 | | --- | --- | | 2:05 PM - 2:25 PM | 茶歇 | | 2:25 PM - 2:55 PM | 全球私募信贷市场: 深入剖析 | | | Declan McKeefry, 高盛资产及财富管理部外部投资团队董事总经理 | | | 文盛漫 (Edward Moon), Apollo 合伙人兼亚太区全球财富等总经理 王克颖 (Valerie Wonn), Apollo 合伙人兼亚太区全球财富管理主管 | | | 王克颖 (Valerie Wong), HPS I ...

高盛集团首席执行官近日表示，展望今年，香港首次公开募股(IPO)市场有望迎来强劲复苏，并将成 为"非常好的一年"。 他表示，当前已有多个潜在项目正在积极筹备中，涵盖科技、消费、能源及新经济等多个领域，发行人 和投资者的互动明显趋于活跃。与此同时，监管环境的稳定性以及市场机制的成熟度，也为香港新股市 场提供了有力支撑。 高盛方面认为，若宏观环境保持相对稳定、市场流动性持续改善，香港今年在IPO数量和融资规模方面 均有望实现明显回升，并继续巩固其作为全球主要上市地之一的地位。 该负责人指出，随着全球资本市场情绪逐步改善，投资者风险偏好回升，加之中国企业国际化融资需求 持续存在，香港作为连接中国与全球资本市场的重要枢纽，其IPO市场的吸引力正在重新增强。 ...

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley outlines 10 investment predictions to help investors navigate "extreme market volatility" [1] - Key themes include AI/technology diffusion, the future of energy, a "multipolar world," and social change [1] - Social change encompasses AI-driven job disruption, aging populations, changing consumer preferences, and health longevity pursuits [1] Group 2 - Progress in large language models (LLMs) is expected to lead to a significant leap in capabilities by mid-2026, with bullish sentiment anticipated in the second half of the year [1] - Demand for computing power is projected to grow exponentially due to the proliferation of AI applications, outpacing supply growth [1] - The new "Intelligence Factory" model indicates attractive economic benefits for LLM developers at the data center level [1] Group 3 - The U.S. government is expected to adopt a tougher policy agenda, focusing on domestic supply of critical minerals, uranium, and metals [2] - Other countries will pressure the U.S. for broader AI technology transfers, impacting global trade dynamics and the pursuit of "Gross Domestic Intelligence" [2] - Rising global energy costs will lead to a rebound in data center expansion, prompting policies to support low-cost energy solutions [2] Group 4 - Key AI players will strengthen control over energy infrastructure to secure the lowest cost and most reliable power [2] - China aims to expand its global manufacturing market share in high-tech industries, while the U.S. experiences a "re-shoring renaissance" [3] - Structural technology diffusion will diminish the advantage of low-cost labor, shifting production back to the U.S. [3] Group 5 - Latin America is entering a new investment cycle driven by policy shifts, geopolitical changes, and peak interest rates [3] - Companies and governments will initiate retraining programs for workers facing job transitions due to AI, with various policy interventions to manage labor transitions [3] - "Transformative AI" is expected to drive deflation and economic transformation, with initial signs emerging in the second half of 2026 [3]

【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不 对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担 全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.com 【1月27日国际贵金属价格高台跳水，现货金银创新高后滑落】1月27日周一，国际贵金属价格上演高台 跳水。现货黄金及现货白银日内齐创历史新高后滑落，现货白银一度跃高14.33%至117.7285美元/盎 司，后轻微转挫不足0.01%至102.9675美元，收市报103.8625美元，微升0.86%。 现货金价破天荒升破 5000美元大关，一度抽升2.57%至5111.11美元/盎司，其后回落至5000美元附近，收市报5008.35美元， 微涨0.51%。 地缘政治紧张局势加剧，市场对避险资产需求升温，推动国际贵金属价格近日势如破竹。 高盛上周调高2026年底黄金价格预测，从4900美元/盎司上调至5400美元，称私营部门向黄金配置资产 多元化进程已显现。 本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 ...

大摩闭门会：2026强势开局，然后呢？260123_导读 2026年01月25日 15:43 大摩闭门会：2026强势开局，然后呢？260123_导读 2026年01月25日 15:43 关键词 CSI300 恒生指数 盈利增速 市盈率 夏普比率 摩根士丹利 新兴市场 标普500 净资产收益率 ROE产业升级 人工智能 科技创新 财政政策 货币政策 房地产市场 新开工面积 房价 MSCI中国 人民币汇率 关键词 CSI300 恒生指数 盈利增速 市盈率 夏普比率 摩根士丹利 新兴市场 标普500 净资产收益率 ROE产业升级 人工智能 科技创新 财政政策 货币政策 房地产市场 新开工面积 房价 MSCI中国 人民币汇率 全文摘要 2026年初，中国股市展现强劲回升势头，背后推动力量包括企业盈利改善、科技创新加速以及政策面的支持。尽 管全球环境充满不确定性，摩根斯坦利仍对MSCI中国指数及其他新兴市场持乐观态度，预计2024年中后市场开始 反弹，强调了中国股市在风险调整后收益上的相对吸引力。对话还预测了亚洲主要股市的未来目标点位，并分析 了影响中国股市的七大关键因素，包括盈利预测、行业展望、宏观经济环境、房地产 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The sharp rise in international gold prices is the result of geopolitical turmoil, the shaking of the global political and economic order, and a continuously loose liquidity environment. In 2026, the Fed is expected to continue to cut interest rates, and the loose liquidity environment provides strong support for the rise of precious metals. Global investors' strategic allocation demand for precious metals has increased, and the scale of gold and silver ETFs has continued to expand, driving up precious metal prices. Short - term silver has risen significantly, and there may be some pressure for funds to take profits, while gold is more stable [4]. - Morgan Stanley expects that driven by geopolitical uncertainty, continuous central bank gold purchases, and strong ETF demand, the gold price is expected to rise to $5,700 per ounce in the second half of the year. If the Fed starts to cut interest rates in 2026, it may further support strong physical gold demand [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing prices of Shanghai Gold 2606 and 2604 on the previous day were 1146.58 and 1143.32 respectively, with increases of 28.20 (2.52%) and 27.68 (2.48%) compared to the day before. The closing prices of Shanghai Silver 2606 and 2604 on the previous day were 27,189 and 27,207 respectively, with increases of 2259 (9.06%) and 2242 (8.98%) compared to the day before [3]. - **Positions and Volumes**: The positions of Shanghai Gold 2606 and 2604 were 85,261 and 215,820 respectively, and the trading volumes were 76,211 and 395,962 respectively. The positions of Shanghai Silver 2606 and 2604 were 169,868 and 322,579 respectively, and the trading volumes were 605,689 and 965,900 respectively [3]. - **Spot Premium and Discount**: The spot premiums and discounts of Shanghai Gold 2606 and 2604 were - 2.32 and 0.94 respectively, and those of Shanghai Silver 2606 and 2604 were 324 and 306 respectively [3]. Spot Market - **Prices**: The closing price of Shanghai Gold T + D on the previous day was 1144.26, up 33.91 (3.05%) from the day before. The closing price of London Gold was $5042.75 per troy ounce, up $21.76 (0.44%) from the day before. The closing price of Shanghai Silver T + D on the previous day was 27,513, up 2525 (10.10%) from the day before. The closing price of London Silver was $106.61 per troy ounce, up $0.53 (0.52%) from the day before [3]. - **Price Spreads**: The current spreads of Shanghai Gold 2606 - Shanghai Gold 2604 and Shanghai Silver 2606 - Shanghai Silver 2604 were 3.26 and - 18.00 respectively. The current gold - to - silver ratio in the spot market was 41.59, and the ratios of Shanghai Gold to London Gold and Shanghai Silver to London Silver were 1.01 and 1.15 respectively [3]. Inventory - **Futures Exchanges**: The current inventories of gold and silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 103,029 kg and 573,810 kg respectively, with changes of + 1020 kg and - 7280 kg compared to the day before. The current inventories of gold and silver on the COMEX were 35,941,502 troy ounces and 415,241,837 troy ounces respectively, with changes of - 202,778 troy ounces and - 1,183,026 troy ounces compared to the day before [3]. Related Derivatives and Indicators - **Indices and Yields**: The current values of the US Dollar Index, S&P 500 Index, 10 - year US Treasury yield, Brent crude oil price, and US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate were 97.04, 6,950.23, 4.22%, $64.89, and 6.9572 respectively, with changes of - 0.46, + 34.62, - 0.02%, - 0.55, and - 0.0070 compared to the day before [3]. - **ETF and CFTC Positions**: The current positions of SPDR Gold ETF and SLV Silver ETF were 1,087 tons and 15,974 tons respectively, with changes of 0 tons and - 116 tons compared to the day before. The current net positions of CFTC speculators in gold and silver were 244,770 and 25,214 respectively, with changes of - 6468 and - 6846 compared to the day before [3]. Macroeconomic News - **Geopolitical**: The USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier strike group has entered the US Central Command's area of responsibility in the western Indian Ocean. If the White House orders an attack on Iran, the strike group could launch military operations within "one or two days." Trump said the situation in Iran is "changing rapidly" and that Iran wants to reach an agreement [4]. - **Trade**: Trump announced that the reciprocal tariffs on South Korean automobiles, timber, pharmaceuticals, and all other goods will be raised from 15% to 25% due to the South Korean Congress's failure to approve the trade agreement [4]. - **Fed Interest Rate Expectations**: According to CME's "FedWatch," the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January is 2.8%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 97.2%. By March, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 15.5%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 84.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 0.4% [4]. - **Commodity Market Analysis**: An analyst pointed out that this is one of the most glorious days in the silver market. The price of silver has risen rapidly due to its small market size and low liquidity. Retail investors are flocking in, and there is a (relatively small - scale) gap in the spot market. This is good news for silver miners, but selling some future production in the futures market may bring some selling pressure [4]. - **Economic Data**: The monthly rate of US durable goods orders in November was 5.3%, the largest increase since May 2025 [4].