公允价值修复，美元兑日元将反弹 摩根士丹利包括Matthew Hornbach在内的策略师在周日的一份报告中指出，当前美元兑日元的定价与基本面存在偏离。这一判断的核心逻辑在于 美国国债收益率的下行趋势，预计这将推动汇率向公允价值回归。 根据该行的具体预测，美元兑日元将在2026年第一季度跌至140左右。但这一升值趋势可能只是阶段性的。策略师们预计，随着美国经济复苏，套 利交易的需求将重新被激活，从而在明年下半年再次对日元构成下行压力。该行预计，到2026年年底，美元兑日元将反弹至147左右。 官方高度关注与干预风险 在日元汇率徘徊在157附近的背景下，市场投资者正密切评估官方进行市场干预的风险。日本财务大臣片山皋月及其他官员近期已表达了对日元疲 软的担忧。片山皋月特别提到，干预是可选方案之一，尽管其此番言论目前对市场的实际影响有限。 摩根士丹利策略师预测，随着美国经济放缓迹象日益明显，如果美联储在此背景下实施连续降息，日元兑美元汇率有望在未来几个月内升值近 10%。 该行指出，目前美元兑日元汇率已脱离公允价值。如果这一关系得以修复，随着美国国债收益率下降拉低公允价值，美元兑日元预计将在2026年 第一季度出现 ...

11月24日，国际金价走出"w"字形波动态势。现货黄金日内一度跌破4040美元，震荡上行已突破4080美元，最终 收于4134.55美元/盎司。 编辑/刘忠禹 分析人士认为，美联储12月降息概率从上周的40%一路飙升至81%，市场对宽松预期的重新定价成为本轮金价拉 高的主因。 高盛最新预计，美联储将在12月的会议上实施连续第三次降息。该行认为，通胀放缓以及劳动力市场降温，为政 策制定者进一步放松货币政策提供了空间。高盛还预计，美联储2026年再降息两次，分别在3月和6月，最终将联 邦基金利率降至3.00%–3.25%的区间。 11月25日，现货黄金一度涨超4150美元关口，最高报4155.89美元/盎司。截至发稿时，现货黄金涨幅有所缩小，报 4142.52美元/盎司。消息面上，美联储理事沃勒主张在12月降息。 文/北京青年报记者 张鑫 道明证券大宗商品策略主管Bart Melek表示："市场越来越相信美联储12月必然降息。"在实物利率下行、通胀预期 温和的背景下，黄金作为零息资产的吸引力被彻底激活。 由于此前美国政府停摆，大量重磅数据被推迟发布，本周将迎来密集补数据窗口。周二将公布推迟已久的零售销 售、PPI ...

（原标题：金价大逆转！美联储理事沃勒：主张在12月降息） 【导读】美联储理事沃勒：主张在12月降息 11月24日，美联储理事沃勒主张在12月降息，现货黄金短线拉升。 美联储理事沃勒：主张在12月降息 高盛预计美联储12月降息 11月24日，高盛最新预计，美联储将在12月的会议上实施连续第三次降息。 该行认为，通胀放缓以及劳动力市场降温，为政策制定者进一步放松货币政策提供了空间。"明年的风 险倾向于进行更多次降息，因为核心通胀方面的消息一直有利，而就业市场的恶化，可能难以通过我们 预期的温和的周期性增长加速来遏制。"高盛首席经济学家Jan Hatzius在一份报告中表示。 高盛还预计，美联储2026年再降息两次，分别在3月和6月，最终将联邦基金利率降至3.00%～3.25%的 区间。 沃勒称，大多数私营部门数据显示就业市场疲软，没有迹象表明企业即将掀起招聘热潮，9月份就业数 据可能会被下修。明年1月份将充满挑战，大量数据将陆续公布，以判断是否需要再次降息，需要逐次 进行评估。如果数据出现反弹，可以更加谨慎。 "通胀率有所上升，但我认为它将开始下降。"沃勒表示，关税对通胀的影响不大，只是一次性的。 此外，沃勒还透 ...

Market Performance - US stock market indices showed significant gains, with the S&P 500 rising by 1.03% and the Nasdaq Composite increasing by 1.78%. Notable stocks such as Google, Tesla, and Broadcom saw their gains exceed 5% [1] - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index also experienced an increase of 2.38%, reaching 7692.89 points [2] Federal Reserve Outlook - Goldman Sachs predicts that the Federal Reserve will implement its third consecutive rate cut in December, citing easing inflation and a cooling labor market as factors allowing for further monetary policy relaxation [5] - The bank anticipates two additional rate cuts in March and June 2026, bringing the federal funds rate down to a range of 3.00% to 3.25% [5] - Goldman Sachs believes that the Fed will increasingly trust the trend of slowing inflation, suggesting that monetary policy does not need to remain at a restrictive level [6] Economic Conditions - Analysts from Goldman Sachs indicate that while the Fed may maintain a cautious tone in the short term, the trajectory of core prices and wage growth suggests a gradual transition to a neutral policy stance next year [7] - Since the Fed began its rate-cutting cycle, financial conditions have significantly eased, stabilizing corporate borrowing costs and household credit flow [8] - By mid-2026, Goldman Sachs expects the Fed to complete its first substantial easing cycle since the pandemic, with rates significantly lower than last year's peak but still above the ultra-loose levels of the past decade [8] Market Expectations - According to CME FedWatch data, the market currently estimates a 30.5% probability that the Fed will maintain rates in December, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut has risen to 69.5%, up from approximately 42% a week prior [9] Upcoming Economic Data - Key economic data that had accumulated during the US federal government shutdown will be released prior to the Fed's December meeting. This includes the October Producer Price Index (PPI) from the Labor Department and the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, which is favored by the Fed, along with the revised third-quarter GDP data [10]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs predicts that the Federal Reserve will implement a third consecutive rate cut in December, citing easing inflation and a cooling labor market as factors that allow for further monetary policy relaxation [1][2]. Group 1: Rate Cut Predictions - Goldman Sachs expects the Federal Reserve to lower rates twice more in 2026, bringing the federal funds rate to a range of 3.00%–3.25% [2]. - The firm believes that the trend of slowing inflation will persist, leading to a gradual transition of monetary policy towards a neutral stance [2]. - Goldman Sachs notes that since the start of the rate cut cycle, financial conditions have significantly eased, stabilizing corporate borrowing costs and household credit flow [2]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following dovish comments from New York Fed President John Williams, market expectations for a December rate cut have increased, with a 69.5% probability of a 25 basis point cut, up from about 42% a week prior [2]. - In contrast, Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan Chase have retracted their predictions for a December rate cut after the unexpectedly strong September non-farm payroll report, which showed an increase of 119,000 jobs, significantly above the expected 50,000 [4]. - The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, the highest since 2021, prompting both firms to reassess their outlook on the Fed's monetary policy [4].

东北，这片曾铸就新中国工业辉煌的热土，承载着"共和国长子"的荣光。然而，在时代发展浪潮中，部 分国企因历史包袱、投资失利等问题一度陷入困境，其命运不仅关乎自身存续，更牵动着东北振兴大 计。 企业重组是优化资源配置、化解发展困境的重要路径。以中金公司为代表的专业金融机构，深耕东北老 工业基地，通过为企业量身定制重组方案，不仅破解了企业生存难题，还激活了区域产业创新动能，培 育了新质生产力，为东北振兴注入强劲金融动力。 化解企业沉疴，系统性重组盘活"工业母机" 在沈阳机床的宽敞车间里，一条数字化柔性生产线正在"黑灯"环境下自主运转，这是老牌国企焕发新生 的生动写照，更是新质生产力在传统制造业落地的案例。 沈阳机床曾是中国机床行业的骄傲，为新中国成立初期工业发展做出过不小贡献。但后来沉重的债务负 担使其举步维艰，到2019年，这家曾经的行业巨头被迫进入破产重整。 机床行业是制造业的"工业母机"，其技术水平关系到一个国家制造业的精度、效率和核心竞争力，对工 业体系、经济安全、科技突破乃至国防建设具有重要的战略意义。 中金公司凭借对高端装备制造业的理解，认识到沈阳机床的核心价值在于其完整的产业体系、深厚的技 术积累和熟 ...

Core Viewpoint - UK businesses are expressing strong concerns over potential increases in corporate tax rates, warning that such measures could lead to significant reductions in investment and operational capacity in the country [1][2]. Group 1: Business Concerns - CEOs from various sectors, including airports and hospitality, are voicing worries that increased corporate tax burdens will undermine consumer confidence and hinder government growth initiatives [1][2]. - Stewart Wingate, managing director of Gatwick Airport, indicated that a proposed increase in corporate tax rates could jeopardize a £2.2 billion expansion project, highlighting unprecedented cost pressures that may force a reevaluation of investment plans [2][3]. - Jon Hendry Pickup, CEO of Butlin's, warned that substantial tax increases would compel the company to cut back on investments and potentially lead to layoffs [2]. Group 2: Policy Recommendations - Andy Briggs, CEO of Phoenix Group Holdings, called for clearer government incentives to direct pension capital towards infrastructure and growth equity, expressing concern over rising pension costs due to proposed salary sacrifice reforms [3]. - Steven Fine, CEO of Peel Hunt Ltd., suggested that raising income tax could provide the UK government with the necessary fiscal space to stimulate economic growth and allow for potential interest rate cuts by the Bank of England [4]. - George Weston, CEO of Associated British Foods, advocated for the removal of tax exemptions for low-value goods from brands like Temu and Shein, arguing that these brands contribute little to the UK economy [5]. Group 3: Industry-Specific Insights - Lisa Jacobs, CEO of Funding Circle Holdings, emphasized the need for increased funding for growth assurance programs to support small businesses, highlighting the importance of policy stability for investment confidence [5]. - Nathan Coe, CEO of Auto Trader Group, urged the government not to impose punitive taxes on electric vehicle owners and to enhance support for charging infrastructure, aligning with the government's net-zero and electric vehicle promotion goals [6]. - Steve Hare, CEO of Sage Plc, viewed the upcoming budget as a crucial opportunity to accelerate the UK's digital transformation and embrace artificial intelligence to boost productivity [6].

Group 1 - The core view of Morgan Stanley's 2026 outlook is that an AI-driven capital expenditure wave of nearly $3 trillion will propel the market higher, with the S&P 500 index expected to reach 7800 points [1][2][8] - The report highlights that the shift in U.S. policy towards industrial policy and strategic investments is driving a significant rebound in corporate capital expenditures [3][4] - Morgan Stanley predicts that global AI-related capital expenditures will approach $3 trillion, with approximately $1.5 trillion needing to be financed through public and private credit markets, contributing 0.4 percentage points to the projected 1.8% GDP growth in the U.S. by 2026 [5][6] Group 2 - Investment opportunities are expected to be broad-based across various industries, not limited to a few leading AI companies, with industrial firms, tech component suppliers, and financial institutions likely to benefit [8] - In the credit market, high-yield bonds are forecasted to outperform investment-grade bonds due to increased issuance pressures on investment-grade bonds, while high-yield bonds are expected to provide around 6-7% total returns [8] - Despite the positive outlook for 2026, there are warnings about potential cyclical pressures from trade policies and interest rate fluctuations, with the Fed possibly starting to cut rates in early 2026 [9] Group 3 - The main risk identified is the potential failure of the AI capital expenditure wave to translate into substantial productivity gains, which could lead to rising corporate leverage outpacing output growth and causing credit market concerns [10] - However, the likelihood of this risk materializing in 2026 is considered low, as corporate fundamentals remain strong with healthy balance sheets and low leverage [10] - It is crucial for investors to monitor key indicators such as corporate leverage, market valuations, and the conversion of investment waves into actual output starting in 2026 [10]

官方给出的理由听起来冠冕堂皇：10 月 1 日美国两党又因预算谈崩，联邦政府非核心部门关门，负责统计经济数据的劳工统计局大部分员工被迫休假， 导致数据统计中断。但明眼人一看就觉得不对劲 —— 为啥其他数据能补，偏偏失业率就 "永久丢失" 了？ 在阅读文章前，辛苦您点下"关注"，方便讨论和分享。作者定会不负众望，按时按量创作出更优质的内容。 文I不可史意 编辑I不可史意 前言 大家好，小编我呀，是一个爱扒关于美国时政的热心博主，今天就带大家一起来看一下，美国失业率突然蒸发的来龙去脉！ 巧合还是精心设计的 "遮羞布"？ 这里得先科普个关键知识点：美国就业报告是 "双轨制" 统计。一边是机构调查，统计部门给全美数十万家企业发问询，收集工资单、雇佣人数等电子化 数据，这些数据存在电脑里，就算政府关门，后续也能补报，这也是官方能公布就业岗位数据的原因。 另一边是家庭调查，这可是失业率数据的唯一来源，统计员得每月随机抽 6 万个家庭，在特定时间点打电话或上门问 "你家成年人上周是在工作、找工作 还是躺平"。 这两者的区别简直天差地别：机构调查是查仓库里有多少苹果，啥时候数都行；家庭调查是问你昨天晚饭吃啥，过一个月再问，谁 ...

上周五啊，大A是把很多人都吓坏了。 甚至很多人一周的亏损已经把过去的收益都给埋掉了。 那和收益一起埋掉的，还有大家的信心。 对于牛市到底还在不在的信息，都不确定了。 我看了很多评论啊，都是韭菜论，说自己是彻底当了一轮金融消费者。 我今天就想和大家唠唠关于这个牛到底还有没有，还在不在的问题啊。 首先，慢牛行情这个不是我说的。 之前的高盛都出来站台，说未来大A还能再涨30%。 大宗主要受供需关系影响，也受美联储降息影响，那如何去布局呢等等 总之啊，其实资产的知识点和概念很多，但很难一次性说完，我们都放在青麦会员课上了。 对了，成为我们的会员，我们还有一个隐藏的福利。 如果突然遇到什么大的事件，我们会给会员加餐录解读的。 昨天全球股票市场下跌，我们老师马上就录了一条解读，告诉大家为什么，以及我们可以怎么去应对。 这都属于我们会员的福利。 所以大家认可，我不想做短线，想真正做长线配置，又想相对稳稳吃肉，也想把真正的一些资产逻辑学到，你们可以拍下我们的青麦会员课—季卡。 因为这个价格，我们可能会随时调价，一杯咖啡钱，但你收获的绝对非常多 但大家纠结的点是什么呢？ 都说是慢牛吧，但大家都没怎么赚到钱。 为什么美国的股市， ...