Economic Overview - Japan's economy contracted in the first quarter, with GDP declining at an annualized rate of 0.2%, lower than the previously estimated 0.7% [1] - Personal consumption grew by 0.1%, while corporate spending increased by 1.1%. Inventory contributed 0.6 percentage points to growth, but net exports detracted 0.8 percentage points [1] - The outlook remains pessimistic, with expectations of stagnant GDP growth in the second quarter due to global economic slowdown and uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariffs [1] U.S.-Japan Tariff Negotiations - The fifth round of U.S.-Japan tariff negotiations ended without consensus, focusing on trade expansion, non-tariff measures, and economic security cooperation [3] - Japan's stance remains firm against tariffs, which have significantly impacted its economy, particularly in the automotive and steel sectors [3] - Expectations suggest that the U.S. may withdraw the 24% "reciprocal tariff" but retain around 10% additional tariffs on strategic products [3] Trade Relations and Cooperation - Japan is willing to collaborate with the U.S. in shipbuilding technology and liquefied natural gas development, aiming to address trade deficits [4] - Proposals include enhancing mutual certification for automotive exports and promoting Japanese brand vehicles produced in the U.S. for third-country markets [4] - Japan's trade surplus with the U.S. is projected to reach approximately 9 trillion yen in fiscal year 2024, with both exports and imports hitting record highs [4] Japanese Bond Market Volatility - Recent fluctuations in the Japanese bond market have drawn attention, with significant declines in auction results for long-term bonds [5] - The bid-to-cover ratio for the 20-year bond auction fell to 2.5, the lowest in 38 years, indicating weak demand [5] - Concerns over the Bank of Japan's potential interest rate hikes and fiscal stability ahead of the July elections contribute to market volatility [6] Future Outlook for Bonds - The rise in long-term bond yields reflects various factors, including speculation about interest rate changes and concerns over fiscal stability [6] - The Bank of Japan is gradually reducing its bond purchases, which may increase supply in the market and affect bond prices [6] - The government is reportedly considering lowering the issuance of long-term bonds in response to market fluctuations [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Multiple international investment banks have raised their economic growth forecasts for China in 2025, expecting trade competitiveness to support the long - term strength of the RMB. The Chinese market and assets are more attractive to global investors due to positive economic growth expectations, improved corporate profit prospects, and relatively low valuations [3][16]. - In the commodity market, some varieties have shown significant price movements. For example, domestic silver futures have reached a record high, and international oil prices have risen due to multiple factors. There are also changes in the supply and demand of various commodities and policies related to their trade [6][11]. - In the bond market, the central bank's actions have stabilized market expectations, with yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market declining, and there are expectations for future market trends such as potential secondary buy - back operations and possible reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts in the third quarter [24]. - In the stock market, A - shares are recommended to focus on corporate fundamentals from June to August, and allocate in specific sectors. The Hong Kong stock market is expected to have repair momentum in the long - term. The IPO market in A - shares and the performance of new stocks have shown certain trends, and the market is paying attention to the value re - evaluation of central state - owned enterprises [33]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Data - GDP in Q1 2025 grew at a constant - price quarterly year - on - year rate of 5.4%, the same as the previous quarter and slightly higher than the same period last year. The manufacturing PMI in May 2025 was 49.5%, up from the previous month but the same as the same period last year. Other economic indicators such as inflation, investment, and trade also showed various trends [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - Cast aluminum alloy futures and options will be listed on June 10, 2025. From January to April, the added value of small and medium - sized industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 8.2% year - on - year, with significant growth in equipment and raw material manufacturing. China's foreign exchange reserves reached $3285.3 billion at the end of May, rising for five consecutive months [2]. - Multiple well - known foreign institutions have raised their forecasts for China's economic growth rate and stock index target points. On June 6, 2025, global central banks initiated an interest - rate cut wave, including the European Central Bank, the Reserve Bank of India, and the Central Bank of Russia [3][4][5]. 3.2.2 Metals - Since June, domestic silver futures prices have continued to rise, with the main July contract hitting a record high. China increased its gold reserves in May, with the gold reserve reaching 73.83 million ounces at the end of May, rising for seven consecutive months [6]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - Coking enterprises plan to increase production cuts to 30% to stabilize coke prices. Fitch believes that producers with many facilities in Canada, Mexico, and Europe will be most affected by the tariff increase on steel and aluminum [9]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - The development project of the Kenli 10 - 2 oilfield group in the Bohai Sea is progressing. International oil prices have risen due to multiple factors. South Korea is considering participating in an LNG project in Alaska, USA [11]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - China has allowed the import of Uruguayan soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and Danish barley. Japan is considering releasing reserve rice to deal with high rice prices and shortages. Malaysia's palm oil production in May is estimated to increase by 3.07% [14]. 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - On June 6, the central bank conducted 135 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 156.1 billion yuan on that day. A total of 930.9 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature this week [15]. 3.3.2 Key News - Multiple international investment banks have raised their forecasts for China's economic growth rate in 2025. China's foreign exchange reserves and gold reserves increased in May. Infrastructure investment has been positive this year, but the momentum for expanding effective investment needs to be fully released [16][17]. - Many policies and regulations are being promoted, such as the review of rare - earth export control applications, the legislative work plan of the Ministry of Finance, and the public consultation on the management of seriously untrustworthy subject lists [18][19]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - Yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market declined, and treasury bond futures rose. The bond ETF market has reached a new high, and the issuance of public funds last week was mainly bond - type funds [24][20]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1847 on June 9, down 9 points from the previous trading day. The US dollar index rose 0.47% [29]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - Yangtze River Fixed Income suggests a defensive coupon strategy for credit bonds in mid - and early June. CICC Fixed Income expects the primary supply of asset - backed securities to continue to grow. Guosheng Fixed Income believes that the repurchase operation can stabilize market expectations [30]. 3.4 Stock Market Key News - In the first trading week of June, A - share indexes fluctuated upward. It is recommended to focus on corporate fundamentals from June to August and allocate in specific sectors. The Hong Kong stock market is expected to have repair momentum in the long - term [33]. - Many mainland enterprises have gone public in Hong Kong this year, and the number of new - share subscribers and the success rate in new - share subscriptions have increased. The A - share IPO market showed signs of warming in May [33][34].

日美部长级磋商后，日本经济财政再生相赤泽亮正回答记者提问（6月6日，华盛顿） 在日美关税磋商中，日本向美国提出了应对中国的一揽子方案。但与此同时，中美两国表现 出接近的姿态，这可能使日本在美国眼中的优先级下降。日本表示"面向达成协议，讨论进一 步深入"，但同时表示：还未找到一致点…… 日美两国政府正在不断快速推进关税谈判。日本经济财政再生相赤泽亮正于美国当地时间6月 6日下午在华盛顿出席第五次部长级磋商。日美最近已连续三周进行高频率谈判。赤泽亮对记 者团表示："以达成协议为目标的讨论进一步取得进展"，但同时也表示"尚未找到一致点"。 考虑到6月中旬的首脑会谈，正在加紧进行协调。 日本首相石破茂6月7日对记者团的提问回答称："据我所知，双方围绕国家利益展开了全力以 赴的认真讨论"。 磋商结束后的6日晚（日本时间7日），赤泽亮正出现在日本驻美大使馆，做出揉眼动作，显 露出疲惫的神情。谈判团的一名成员透露："连续出差让身体有些吃不消了"，"虽然很想休 息，但现在并不是休息的时候"。 关于第五轮谈判的结果，赤泽亮正表示"面向达成协议，讨论进一步深入"，避免提及具体内 容。但同时表示："我们还未找到一致点" 能否进一步 ...

Group 1: Banking and Finance - In Q1 2025, the total RMB loans increased by 9.78 trillion yuan, with a total balance of 265.41 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.4% [1] - The balance of RMB real estate loans reached 53.54 trillion yuan, with a slight year-on-year increase of 0.04% and a quarterly increase of 619.7 billion yuan [1] - The consumer finance sector has seen a surge in bad asset transfers, with 103 announcements made by 15 licensed consumer finance companies by May 29, 2025, indicating a significant market activity [2] Group 2: Manufacturing and Industry - China's shipbuilding industry continues to show strong resilience, with new orders in the first four months of 2025 maintaining the largest global market share [3] - The automotive sector reported an import and export total of 23.09 billion USD in April 2025, with exports increasing by 6.9% month-on-month [3] Group 3: Agriculture and Livestock - Major pig farming companies have received notifications to suspend the expansion of breeding sows and control the weight of pigs for slaughter, indicating regulatory measures to stabilize prices [4] Group 4: Technology and Innovation - The first fully automated testing system for medical electronic instruments based on NQI technology has passed inspection, marking a significant advancement in China's medical instrument industry [5] Group 5: Corporate Actions - Zhejiang Medicine plans to use up to 1 billion yuan of idle funds for entrusted wealth management, with a maximum investment period of 12 months [10] - All-in-one subsidiary Jinbo Hydrogen Energy of Quanxin Co. has received a supplier designation notice, indicating a strategic move in the hydrogen energy sector [11]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing US-Japan tariff negotiations are critical, with Japan pushing for the complete removal of tariffs while the US remains resistant. The recent phone call between Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and President Trump has introduced new dynamics into the discussions, particularly regarding investment and economic security [1][2]. Group 1: Tariff Negotiations - Japan has consistently requested the full cancellation of tariffs on automobiles, steel, and aluminum, but the US has not agreed to this demand [1]. - The third round of tariff negotiations, held on May 23, continued the previous discussions' tone, with Japanese Economic Revitalization Minister Akira Amari stating that the exchanges were more candid and in-depth than before [1][2]. - A new round of negotiations is scheduled for May 30 in Washington, indicating ongoing efforts to reach an agreement [1]. Group 2: Strategic Discussions - The phone call between Ishiba and Trump covered several key topics, including plans for a face-to-face meeting during the G7 summit, economic security-related tariff negotiations, and potential Japanese procurement of US fighter jets [2]. - Japan is considering establishing a "Japan-US Shipbuilding Fund" to revitalize its shipbuilding industry, which could enhance cooperation in sectors deemed critical to national security by the US [2]. Group 3: Economic Implications - Trump's recent Middle East trip resulted in approximately $2 trillion in investment agreements, which he communicated to Ishiba, aiming to encourage Japan to increase its investments in the US [2]. - Japan has already invested significantly in US manufacturing, but further investments are seen as necessary under Trump's "revitalize American manufacturing" agenda [2]. Group 4: Broader Trade Context - The situation with the EU serves as a cautionary tale for Japan, as delays in trade negotiations have led to threats of increased tariffs from the US [3]. - The outcome of the G7 summit, particularly regarding breakthroughs in automotive and steel tariffs, could have substantial implications for related industries in Japan [3].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve may consider interest rate cuts in the second half of 2025 if tariffs remain around 10% [1] - The ongoing trade tensions have created a dilemma for the Federal Reserve, balancing between persistent inflation data and market volatility caused by tariffs [3] - The U.S. market experienced a significant downturn on May 21, with a sharp rise in bond yields, a drop in stock prices, and the dollar index falling below 100 [4] Group 2 - The long-standing debt issues have been exacerbated by the trade tensions, leading to increased scrutiny on the Federal Reserve's role in stabilizing the market [5] - The weak auction of 20-year U.S. Treasury bonds on May 22 resulted in a "triple whammy" effect on stocks, bonds, and currencies, with the S&P 500 index dropping nearly 1.6% [7] - The auction's final yield of 5.047% marked a significant increase from previous rates, indicating a lack of demand and raising concerns about the U.S. fiscal situation [8] Group 3 - The recent surge in U.S. Treasury yields has raised fears among investors regarding the government's fiscal health and monetary policy [8] - The ongoing trade war has revealed underlying issues in the U.S. economy, with tariff revenues not keeping pace with rising national debt [9] - The proposed tax cuts are expected to further pressure the U.S. debt situation, with potential implications for the bond market [10] Group 4 - The anticipated tax legislation is projected to reduce household tax burdens significantly, which could impact the fiscal deficit and bond market reactions [11] - The recent rebound in U.S. stocks has raised questions about the sustainability of this rally amid ongoing geopolitical risks and rising federal spending [12] - Investors are advised to be cautious with dollar assets as the market navigates through the current volatility, with a potential shift towards safe-haven assets like gold and yen [13][14]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The conference call discusses macroeconomic trends and monetary policies affecting various regions, particularly focusing on the Euro area, United States, and Asia Pacific. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **U.S. Economic Policy and Deficits** - The House passed a reconciliation bill proposing $3.8 trillion in new deficits over the next 10 years, which is the lower end of earlier estimates that reached up to $15 trillion [4][15][16] - The Senate's approval is pending, and the process may extend until after August, potentially requiring temporary debt-limit relief [18][19] 2. **Inflation and Monetary Policy in the Euro Area** - Flash inflation data for May is expected to show stable or lower total inflation across most Euro area countries, with a focus on the impact of new tariff threats [5][40] - The European Central Bank (ECB) is anticipated to implement a 25 basis point rate cut in June, with discussions ongoing about future cuts [39][44] 3. **Consumer Confidence and Spending Trends** - Consumer confidence in the U.S. remains weak, driven by fears of price increases and potential layoffs, despite healthy consumer spending trends [20][23][31] - April consumer spending is expected to show a nominal increase of 0.3%, with real expenditures rising by 0.2% due to low inflation [33][34] 4. **Asia Pacific Economic Outlook** - The Bank of Korea (BoK) is expected to cut its policy rate by 25 basis points amid weak economic growth [6][39] - India's GDP growth is projected to have picked up in Q1, driven by government spending and investment [6][39] 5. **Tariff Impacts and Trade Dynamics** - President Trump's threats of new tariffs against the EU and potential tariffs on iPhones have created uncertainty that could negatively impact global growth [3][5] - The Euro area is experiencing disinflation amidst these tariff threats, with consumer confidence showing signs of decline in France [38][41] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Sector-Specific Insights** - The manufacturing sector in the Euro area is showing signs of improvement, while the services sector is lagging, indicating a divergence in economic recovery [38][45] - The U.S. durable goods orders are expected to show a significant drop in April, particularly in the aircraft sector, which had previously seen strong orders [29][30] 2. **Geopolitical Considerations** - The geopolitical landscape, particularly regarding U.S.-China trade relations, continues to influence economic sentiment and market expectations [19][39] - Brazil's economic activity suggests strong GDP expansion in Q1, but underlying components may indicate potential weaknesses ahead [8][13] 3. **Monetary Growth Trends** - M3 money supply growth in the Euro area has been improving, driven by higher loan demand in the private sector, although there are concerns about banks' external asset sales [53][54] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the macroeconomic trends, monetary policies, and sector-specific insights that could influence investment decisions.

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market has been on an upward trend since April 9, but showed signs of fatigue by the end of the month, with the Hang Seng Index dropping by 1.35% [1] - The U.S. is pushing for trade agreements with the EU and Japan, with Trump suggesting a 50% tariff on EU goods starting June 1, later postponed to July 9 to allow for further negotiations [1][2] - Japan's shipbuilding industry is facing a downturn, with new ship orders expected to decline significantly in 2024, making negotiations with the U.S. challenging [2] Industry Insights - The Chinese shipbuilding industry remains dominant, with China Shipbuilding Industry Group showing strong order volumes and profitability, leading to a stock price increase of over 6% [2] - Trump's tariffs on non-U.S. manufactured electronics, including a 25% tariff on Apple and Samsung, are expected to negatively impact the consumer electronics sector [2] - The automotive sector is experiencing intense price competition, particularly with BYD's aggressive discounting strategy, raising concerns about profit margins across the industry [3] Energy Sector Developments - The U.S. plans to initiate the construction of 10 large nuclear power plants by 2030, aiming to quadruple nuclear capacity by 2050, which has positively impacted related stocks in Hong Kong [4] - Domestic coal prices have decreased, benefiting thermal power companies, with major players like Datang Power and Huadian International seeing stock price increases of nearly 3% [4] Aviation Industry Performance - Major airlines in China reported increased passenger turnover and capacity in April, with the Civil Aviation Administration noting significant year-on-year growth in transport metrics [6] - The decline in international oil prices is improving the cost structure for airlines, enhancing profit margins [6][7] Company-Specific Highlights - China Resources Power reported a 7.9% increase in electricity sales in April 2025, with significant growth in renewable energy sales, although its renewable energy core profit saw a slight decline [9] - The company aims to add 10 GW of wind and solar capacity by 2025, with ongoing projects expected to contribute to future growth [10]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for commodities and stock index futures is overall neutral, pending fundamental verification [4] Core Viewpoints - Short - term focus on economic fact verification, with attention to sensitive commodities like crude oil, shipping indices, and gold; long - term focus on stagflation allocation [1][3] - The risk of US tariff escalation is rising, which impacts global trade and inflation expectations [2] - Commodities should focus on the transmission of fundamentals, and beware of emotional shocks from US stock adjustments for industrial products [3] Summaries by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On May 7, "One Bank, One Administration, and One Commission" introduced a package of financial policies to boost the economy. In April, China's exports increased by 8.1% year - on - year, and imports decreased by 0.2% year - on - year, slightly exceeding expectations. Exports to the US decreased by 21% year - on - year, while those to ASEAN increased by 20.8% year - on - year. Labor - intensive product exports were significantly impacted, with a year - on - year decrease of 1.7% [1] - On May 19, the People's Bank of China stated that it would implement and transmit a package of monetary and financial policy measures. On May 20, the one - year and five - year loan prime rates (LPR) were lowered to 3% and 3.5% respectively. On May 23, the central bank will conduct a 500 - billion - yuan MLF operation [1] - From May 9 - 12, Vice - Premier He Lifeng held talks with the US during his visit to Switzerland. The Sino - US Geneva economic and trade talks achieved substantial progress, with both sides promising to suspend some additional tariffs and establish a consultation mechanism [1] - On May 15, the Ministry of Commerce responded to the adjustment of China's counter - tariff measures against the US, stating that it would adjust accordingly due to the US revocation of additional tariffs on China and expressing an open attitude towards the Sino - US economic and trade consultation mechanism [1] US Tariff Situation - On May 8, the UK and the US reached an agreement on tariff trade agreement terms, with a "tax rate + quota" restriction approach. The UK's exports to the US will face a minimum 10% tariff, and there may be export caps on specific products [2] - On May 17, US Treasury Secretary Besent warned that if countries do not negotiate "sincerely" before the tariff suspension period expires at the beginning of July and fail to reach a trade agreement, tariff rates will return to the "liberation day" level [2] - Japan's chief trade negotiator and Minister of Economic Revitalization Akazawa Ryo will visit the US from May 23 - 25 for trade negotiations. Japan and the US Treasury Secretaries agree that exchange rates should be determined by the market [2] - India and the US are discussing a "three - stage" trade agreement, expected to reach a temporary agreement before early July. South Korea says its foreign exchange negotiations with the US are ongoing and no decision has been made [2] - The US Department of Commerce issued guidelines to strengthen export controls on China's AI - related products. China's Ministry of Commerce responded that implementing US measures would be illegal [2] - On May 13, the US April CPI data was lower than expected, indicating further alleviation of inflation pressure, but the impact of tariffs has not fully reached the consumer end [2] - On May 15, the Fed Chairman said that the Fed is about to adjust the interest rate - setting framework, and the "era of long - term low interest rates" may have ended, putting pressure on short - term Fed rate - cut expectations [2] - Fed Governor Waller said that if tariffs decline, the Fed is expected to cut interest rates in the second half of 2025 [2] - After the Trump tax bill barely passed the House of Representatives, the yield of the US 30 - year Treasury bond rose by more than 2 basis points, reaching 5.123%, the highest intraday level since October 2023 [2] Commodity Market - From the 2018 tariff review, the tariff increase event first trades on the decline in demand and then on the rise in inflation. Industrial products such as black and non - ferrous metals should beware of emotional shocks from US stock adjustments, while agricultural products have a higher probability of price increases due to tariffs [3] - In the energy sector, the price of crude oil has declined. The IEA monthly report lowered the oil demand forecast for this year. OPEC + confirmed a production increase of 411,000 barrels per day in June, and a large - scale production increase in July is under discussion. On May 22, Brent crude futures fell below $64 per barrel, down nearly 1.6% intraday [3] - The EU plans to ban the import of Russian natural gas and liquefied natural gas by the end of 2027, and stop signing new agreements and spot contracts by the end of 2025. The EU and the UK announced a new round of sanctions against Russia on the 20th, targeting Russia's energy construction and finance sectors, and also including Chinese and UAE companies in the sanctions list [3] - The European Commission plans to levy a 2 - euro tax on small packages entering the EU [3] Other Market Conditions - US stock index futures tumbled. The Nasdaq futures fell 0.27% intraday, the S&P 500 index futures fell 0.32%, and the Dow futures fell 0.45% [7] - The yield of Japanese long - term bonds continued to rise. The 40 - year yield rose 6 basis points to 3.675%, reaching the highest level since its issuance in 2007. The 10 - year yield rose 5 basis points to 1.565%, and the 20 - year yield rose 5.5 basis points to 2.595% [7] - The preliminary value of the eurozone's May manufacturing PMI was 49.4, the service PMI was 48.9, and the composite PMI was 49.5, all lower than expected [7]

Group 1 - The 21st China (Shenzhen) International Cultural Industries Fair will be held from May 22 to 26, with a significant "policy package" to support six key areas for high-quality cultural industry development [2] - The European Union plans to impose handling fees on small packages entering the EU, with China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs advocating for a fair and transparent business environment for Chinese enterprises [2] - China and the ten ASEAN countries have completed negotiations for the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0, adding nine new chapters including digital economy and green economy [2] Group 2 - International gold prices rebounded on May 21, with domestic gold jewelry prices surpassing 1,000 yuan per gram, with notable increases from major retailers [3] - Several banks, including Ping An Bank and CITIC Bank, have lowered deposit rates, particularly for medium- and long-term deposits, with some banks suspending five-year term deposits [3] - A surge in A-share buyback and increase plans has been observed, with 394 companies announcing such plans since the second quarter of 2025, a rise of over 60% compared to the first quarter [3] Group 3 - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index closed up 0.62%, with BYD shares rising over 4% to a new historical high, and southbound funds net buying exceeding 1.4 billion HKD [4] - UBS noted a growing international interest in Chinese assets, highlighting the strategic importance of the Chinese stock market for global investors seeking excess returns [4] Group 4 - Baidu reported Q1 revenue of 32.452 billion yuan, a 3% year-on-year increase, with a notable 42% growth in Baidu Smart Cloud [5] - Xpeng Motors achieved Q1 revenue of 15.81 billion yuan, a 141.5% year-on-year increase, with a projected delivery volume of 102,000 to 108,000 units in Q2 [5] - Weibo's Q1 revenue remained stable at 396.9 million USD, with a 12% year-on-year increase in adjusted net profit [5] Group 5 - The stock price for Naxin Microelectronics was set at 163.15 yuan per share, with a subscription rate of 1.29 times from institutional investors [6] - The U.S. stock market saw declines across major indices, with significant drops in Chinese concept stocks such as iQIYI and Baidu [6]