Investment Rating - The report suggests a "Buy" rating for the coal sector, indicating an expected increase in the sector's performance exceeding the market by over 15% in the next 3-6 months [68]. Core Insights - The coal market is currently experiencing a "weak balance under multi-directional competition," with supply tightening providing support for coal prices, while high inventory and clean energy alternatives suppress price rebounds [60][66]. - The report highlights the importance of the newly operational Hami North-Chongqing ±800 kV UHVDC project, which is expected to enhance the transmission of green electricity, with an annual delivery capacity of over 36 billion kWh [37][33]. - The report emphasizes the need for companies in the power generation sector to focus on regions with tight supply-demand dynamics and favorable competitive landscapes, particularly recommending companies like Huadian International and Anhui Energy [3][66]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.25%, while the ChiNext Index rose by 0.22% during the week [10]. - The carbon neutrality sector saw a slight increase of 0.15%, while the environmental protection sector declined by 1.15% [10]. Industry Data Tracking - Coal prices are under pressure due to high inventory levels and weak demand, with the CECI coastal index remaining stable [4][46]. - The report notes that the average price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal was 610 yuan/ton, showing a slight decrease of 0.16% [46]. Industry News - The China Electricity Council reported a significant drop in coal-fired power generation and consumption, with a year-on-year decrease exceeding 10% [4][59]. - The National Development and Reform Commission is focusing on supporting private enterprises in technological innovation, which is expected to enhance the overall industry landscape [4][61]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in various sectors: Anhui Energy and Huadian International in thermal power, Yangtze Power in hydropower, and Longyuan Power in renewable energy [3][66]. - The environmental sector is advised to consider urban comprehensive operation management service providers like Yuhua Tian [66].

Core Viewpoint - The Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region's ecological environment department has issued a revised management method for environmental impact assessment (EIA) to strengthen the preventive role of EIA and ensure strict approval for high-pollution projects, aligning with national goals for sustainable development and environmental protection [1][3]. Group 1: Environmental Impact and Regulatory Changes - The approval authority for EIAs of high-pollution industries such as thermal power, steel, non-ferrous metal smelting, and petrochemicals has been centralized to provincial ecological environment departments, reflecting a trend seen in other provinces like Hebei and Qinghai [1][3]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" mid-term evaluation report indicates that key environmental indicators, including energy consumption per unit of GDP and CO2 emissions per unit of GDP, are lagging behind expectations, highlighting the environmental risks associated with rapid industrial growth in these sectors [2][3]. Group 2: Balancing Economic Development and Environmental Protection - The centralization of EIA approval is not merely a transfer of power but a pragmatic measure to balance strict environmental regulation with local economic development needs, ensuring that high-pollution projects do not proceed unchecked [3]. - The need for clear approval standards and a negative list is emphasized to provide local governments with development space while maintaining strict ecological boundaries [3][4]. Group 3: Capacity Building and Systematic Approach - The delegation of EIA approval for projects with lower environmental risks to local levels is part of a broader reform aimed at improving regulatory efficiency, contingent on local authorities having adequate oversight capabilities [4]. - Strengthening local environmental protection capabilities through training and technical support is crucial for effective implementation of the new EIA management system [4]. - A systematic approach to environmental governance is necessary to avoid oversimplification in regulatory practices, ensuring a balanced and effective management system that supports sustainable development [4].

Core Viewpoint - The national carbon market has experienced a significant price decline, with carbon emission allowances (CEA) dropping to 68.48 yuan/ton, a decrease of approximately 35% from the historical high of around 105 yuan/ton reached in November of the previous year. This decline is attributed to weakened demand, increased supply expectations, and deteriorating market sentiment. However, long-term prospects suggest that carbon prices may stabilize and rise due to tightening policies, industrial upgrades, and deeper international linkages [1][2][4]. Group 1: Price Decline Factors - The primary demand side for carbon market is thermal power, which has seen a decrease in generation, directly impacting the motivation to purchase carbon allowances. From January to April, total electricity generation, including thermal power, grew by only 0.1% year-on-year, significantly lower than the 6.1% growth in the same period last year [2]. - The manufacturing PMI fell below 50 after April due to trade frictions, leading to a slowdown in industrial electricity growth. Additionally, higher temperatures this year have reduced residential electricity consumption, further impacting demand for carbon allowances [2]. - The introduction of a "zero gap" for new industry allowances and the restart of the voluntary emission reduction market (CCER) have also contributed to downward pressure on prices [3]. Group 2: Long-term Market Outlook - Despite the current price decline, there is a consensus that the long-term upward trend of carbon prices remains intact. The total allowance will tighten annually in line with the "dual carbon" goals, leading to increased scarcity [4]. - The European Union's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), set to impose a "carbon tax" in 2026, is expected to align domestic carbon prices with major markets [4]. - The transition of high-emission industries will require higher carbon price signals, supporting the long-term price increase [4]. Group 3: Financial Innovations and Risk Management - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has proposed the development of carbon futures, which will help companies manage carbon price volatility through hedging strategies [5]. - The establishment of a well-functioning carbon futures market is seen as essential for stabilizing carbon costs and avoiding adverse impacts on business operations due to price fluctuations [5][6]. - The future development of a carbon futures market is viewed as an opportunity for gaining international pricing power in major energy commodities [6].

Core Viewpoint - Vietnam has officially launched the pilot phase of its carbon emissions trading scheme aimed at encouraging three major industrial sectors to reduce their carbon dioxide emissions [1] Group 1: Carbon Emissions Trading Plan - The plan requires steel, cement, and thermal power producers in Vietnam to purchase quotas to cover their carbon intensity, which is the amount of carbon dioxide produced per unit of output [1] - The first phase of the plan will cover approximately 50% of Vietnam's total carbon dioxide emissions and will last until 2029 [1] - Following the initial phase, the plan will expand to include other sectors such as goods transportation and commercial buildings [1]

Market Overview - On June 10, the Hang Seng Index experienced a slight decline of 19 points or 0.1%, closing at 24,162 points[1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 0.8%, ending at 5,392 points[1] - Total market turnover reached HKD 250.3 billion, with the top two ETFs, the Tracker Fund and the Hang Seng China Enterprises ETF, recording turnover of HKD 16.5 billion and HKD 14.0 billion respectively[1] - Net inflow through the Stock Connect was HKD 7.59 billion[1] Sector Performance - Sub-sectors such as banking, insurance, power, biomedicine, materials, and transportation showed positive performance[1] - Agricultural Bank, China Construction Bank, and Industrial and Commercial Bank reached new highs since their listings[1] - Biomedicine stocks like Lepu Biopharma, CanSino Biologics, and 3SBio saw increases ranging from 9.8% to 15.5%[1] Valuation Insights - The current AH premium index has dropped to 130.5, indicating a low level within the past three years[2] - After accounting for a 20% dividend tax on H-shares, the adjusted AH premium index is approximately 125, suggesting limited upside for H-shares[2] - The Hang Seng Index's risk premium is nearing two standard deviations below its rolling two-year average, indicating insufficient market risk compensation[2] Economic Context - The economic fundamentals remain in a weak recovery phase, with ongoing downward pressure on prices and unstable corporate profit recovery[2] - If the Hong Kong dollar approaches the weak side of the peg, the Monetary Authority may withdraw liquidity, potentially raising funding costs[2] Real Estate Market Trends - New home transaction volume in 30 major cities fell to 1.42 million square meters, a year-on-year decline of 18.1%[5] - The inventory-to-sales ratio for major cities increased to 85.4, up from 83.6 a year ago[7] - Land transaction volume in 100 major cities dropped by 48.9% year-on-year, indicating a significant contraction in the real estate market[8] Investment Recommendations - Focus on state-owned developers for stability in the real estate sector, given the underperformance of Hong Kong-listed property stocks[11] - Monitor high-growth potential sectors such as consumer electronics and AI, which may benefit from reduced external risks[13]

Group 1 - The event "Environmental News Tea Session: Wuhan" was held on June 3, 2025, focusing on promoting environmental awareness and green development in Wuhan [1][2] - The event featured discussions on climate change, green development, and ecological harmony, with participation from media representatives, environmental workers, and volunteers [2][3] - Wuhan's ecological initiatives include the establishment of 1,842 electronic records of pollution outlets and the transformation of polluted areas into eco-friendly spaces [3][12] Group 2 - The "Wuhan Carbon Benefit" platform has engaged 1.6 million residents, recording 5.18 million tons of carbon reduction, equivalent to planting 1.5 million trees [14] - The carbon trading platform "Zhongtan Deng" has facilitated the trading of 653 million tons of carbon quotas, with a transaction value exceeding 44.8 billion yuan [13] - Wuhan aims to achieve a carbon industry scale exceeding 100 billion yuan by 2024, with over 300 carbon-related enterprises attracted to the area [12][13] Group 3 - The launch of the book "Focusing on Beautiful China" documents the progress and experiences in environmental journalism from 2012 to 2024 [6][7] - The event included the initiation of the Yangtze River Ecological Environmental Protection Youth Advocacy Program, aimed at enhancing youth engagement in environmental protection [9][12] - Various districts in Wuhan organized activities for World Environment Day, promoting community involvement in ecological conservation and low-carbon living [16][19][21]

Macro and Strategy - The core CPI in China is expected to turn positive in June, driven by service prices in May, while the PPI continues to show a significant decline [9][10] - China's exports showed resilience with a 4.8% year-on-year increase in May, while imports fell by 3.4%, resulting in a trade surplus of $103.22 billion [10] Transportation Industry - The logistics sector is seeing a reduction in costs and increased efficiency through the adoption of unmanned logistics vehicles, particularly in the last mile of delivery [10][12] - The shipping industry is experiencing a rebound in freight rates due to increased demand from U.S. companies resuming supply chains, leading to a significant supply-demand gap [10][12] - The aviation sector is entering a low season, with domestic passenger flights seeing a decrease, but there is potential for price stabilization in 2025 due to ongoing demand optimization policies [11][12] Public Utilities and Environmental Protection - The National Energy Administration is initiating pilot projects for new power systems, focusing on innovative technologies and models [15][16] - In April 2025, China exported 228,148 tons of industrial-grade mixed oil (UCO), a 7.46% increase year-on-year, with an average export price of $1,069.34 per ton, up 21.01% year-on-year [15][16] Mechanical Industry - The humanoid robot sector is gaining traction, with strong orders from TSMC and the official launch of the Tian Gong Robot 2.0 [10][18] - The AI infrastructure is expected to drive continued growth in capital expenditure for data centers, benefiting companies involved in gas turbines and chillers [19] Home Appliances - The demand for kitchen small appliances is accelerating, with significant growth observed during the 618 shopping festival [21][22] - The domestic sales of major home appliance categories showed positive growth in April, with air conditioners and washing machines leading the way [22][23] Food and Beverage - The white liquor sector is facing continued pressure during the off-season, while beer and beverage categories are entering a peak demand period [33][34] - High-end liquor prices have slightly decreased, with companies like Kweichow Moutai and Luzhou Laojiao adjusting strategies to maintain market presence [34] Media and Internet - The media sector is experiencing growth, with companies like Keling AI collaborating with NetEase Games, indicating a positive trend in AI applications and IP development [33]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the public utility sector [1][5][7] Core Views - The report highlights the ongoing pilot projects for the new power system initiated by the National Energy Administration, focusing on innovative technologies and models [2][14] - It emphasizes the growth in exports of industrial-grade mixed oil (UCO) in April 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 7.46% in volume and a 21.01% increase in average price [3][15] - The report suggests that coal and electricity prices are declining simultaneously, which may help maintain reasonable profitability for thermal power [3][18] Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.88%, while the public utility index fell by 0.13% and the environmental index increased by 0.46% [1][19] - Within the electricity sector, thermal power decreased by 0.97%, hydropower by 1.47%, and new energy generation by 0.45% [1][19] Important Events - The National Energy Administration is conducting pilot projects for a new power system, focusing on advanced technologies and models [2][14] Special Research - In April 2025, China exported 228,148 tons of industrial-grade mixed oil (UCO), with an average export price of $1,069.34 per ton [3][15] Investment Strategy - Recommendations include major thermal power companies like Huadian International and Shanghai Electric, as well as leading new energy firms such as Longyuan Power and Three Gorges Energy [3][18] - The report also suggests focusing on water and waste incineration sectors, which are entering a mature phase with improved cash flow [3][18] Key Company Earnings Forecasts and Investment Ratings - Several companies are rated "Outperform," including Huadian International, Shanghai Electric, Longyuan Power, and China Nuclear Power [7][18] Industry Dynamics - The report notes that the overall electricity generation in April 2025 was 711.1 billion kWh, with a year-on-year growth of 0.9% [45] - The total installed power generation capacity reached 3.49 billion kW, a year-on-year increase of 15.9% [76]

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 06 08 年 月 日 在新一代煤电方面，提出对照《新一代煤电升级专项行动实施方案 （2025—2027 年）》要求，推动具备条件的现役机组和新建机组针对清 洁降碳、高效调节两类指标分别开展试点，通过采用零碳低碳燃料掺烧、 CCUS（（碳集、、利用与存））等降碳施施，著降降低煤电碳放；；开展 主辅机装备技术创新应用和系统、成优化，提高煤电机组快速变负荷、 深度调峰和宽负荷高效调节能力，同时需具备安全可靠启停调峰能力。 ➢ 多地发布高温预警，迎峰度夏开启有望提振用电需求，煤价跌至 618 元 /吨。4 月，国家能源局曾预计今年度夏期间，全国用电负荷将快速增长， 最高负荷同比增长约 1 亿千瓦，电力保供面临着一定压力。综合研判， 迎峰度夏期间，全国电力供应总体有保障，局部地区高峰时段可能）在 电力供应紧张的情况。本周，多地地表温度超过 60℃，高温范围持续扩 大。今年 1-4 月全社会用电量 31566 亿千瓦时，同比增长 3.1%，整体 用电需求偏弱。进入迎峰度夏，高温天气或催化用电需求提升。成本端 煤价持续下跌，本周北港动煤 5500K 跌至 6 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the gradual implementation of the 136 document details across provinces, with a focus on ensuring profitability for existing projects and clearer revenue expectations [3] - The report emphasizes the importance of mechanism electricity quantity and price, with specific guidelines from Shandong and Guangdong provinces, indicating a stronger support for existing projects compared to Inner Mongolia [3] - The national green electricity direct connection policy is seen as a significant step towards promoting green electricity consumption and reducing electricity costs for end-users, particularly export-oriented enterprises [4] Segment Summaries Thermal Power - Coal prices remain low, with the Qinhuangdao port 5500 kcal thermal coal price dropping to 610 RMB/ton as of June 3, 2025, and an average price of 688 RMB/ton year-to-date, a year-on-year decrease of 189 RMB/ton or 22%, which may mitigate the negative impact of long-term electricity price declines in 2025 [5] - Companies with a high market coal ratio and small electricity price reduction are recommended for attention [5] Hydropower and Nuclear Power - Current low interest rates enhance the investment value of hydropower and nuclear power [5] Renewable Energy - Continuous policy support for electricity price reform and green electricity consumption is expected to foster sustainable industry development, presenting a pivotal investment opportunity [5] - The report anticipates that provinces with stronger renewable energy consumption capabilities will set higher mechanism electricity quantity ratios, aligning with the 136 document's "new and old connection" approach [3] - The first bidding price in Shandong is capped at the previous year's settlement average price, with wind and solar prices at 0.357 and 0.346 RMB/kWh respectively, indicating a discount of 10% and 12% compared to coal benchmark prices [3] Electricity Consumption Trends - In April, total electricity consumption reached 772.1 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 4.7%, with notable growth in new business sectors such as information transmission and electric vehicle charging services [5] - The report notes a decline in hydropower generation growth, while wind and solar generation growth accelerated [5]