行业 能源化工周报 日期 2025 年 11 月 21 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油、沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅多晶硅） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 期货从业资格号：F03134307 请阅读正文后的声明 | ⇒ 原油 . | | --- ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene: ★☆☆ [1] - Polypropylene: ★☆☆ [1] - Plastic: ★☆☆ [1] - Pure Benzene: ☆☆☆ [1] - Styrene: ☆☆☆ [1] - PX: ☆☆☆ [1] - PTA: ★★★ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ★★★ [1] - Bottle Chip: ☆☆☆ [1] - Methanol: ★★★ [1] - Urea: ☆☆☆ [1] - PVC: ★☆★ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★★ [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★ [1] - Glass: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The futures of olefins and polyolefins are fluctuating widely, with supply - demand contradictions and price trends affected by factors like inventory, cost, and oil prices [2] - Pure benzene price rebounds with uncertain sustainability, and styrene's price is supported by short - term supply - demand improvement [3] - In the polyester industry, prices of PX, PTA, etc., are affected by multiple factors, and the supply of ethylene glycol is under pressure [5] - Methanol and urea markets have their own supply - demand situations and price trends [6] - PVC and caustic soda are in a weak operation state due to supply - demand imbalances [7] - Soda ash shows a long - term oversupply pattern, and glass has limited downward space [8] Summary by Directory Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene enterprise inventory is low, but downstream polypropylene cost pressure and low international oil prices may affect the market [2] - Polyethylene and polypropylene futures close down, with supply - demand contradictions in both markets [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene price rebounds with uncertain continuity, and styrene has short - term supply - demand support [3] Polyester - PTA price drops with the decline of PX and oil prices, and the supply of ethylene glycol is under pressure [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol is in a weak operation, and urea may have an oscillating callback [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC and caustic soda are in a weak state due to supply - demand imbalances [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash is in an oversupply situation, and glass has limited downward space [8]

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 | | | | | 聚酯数据日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号:Z0017251 | 2025/11/21 | | | | 能源化工研究中心 | 陈胜 | | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | | 指标 | 2025/11/19 2025/11/20 | | 变动值 | 行情综述 | | | INE原油(元/桶) | 464.5 | 455. 5 | -9.00 | 成交情况: PTA:盘中原油行情并未收回周三的跌幅,PTA行情先 | | | | | | | 涨后跌,日均价下跌。PTA去库存,利好现货基差,基 | | SC | PTA-SC(元/陣) | 1336. 4 | 1385. 8 | 49. 40 | 差微涨。 | | | PTA/SC(比价) | 1. 3959 | 1. 4187 | 0. 0227 | | | | CFR中国PX | 832 | 833 | 1 | | | PX | PX-石脑油价差 | 264 | 260 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All commodities in the report, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and polyvinyl chloride, are rated as "oscillating" [1][3][5][6][8] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, oil prices closed down. The macro - non - farm data was below expectations, pressuring the market. European ARA hub inventory data showed mixed trends. The market is fragile and sensitive to negatives, and oil prices are expected to continue oscillating [1] - **Fuel Oil**: Futures prices fell on Thursday. Singapore's October sales data showed growth and decline in different types. In November, sufficient inventory will suppress the low - sulfur market, while the high - sulfur market has relatively healthy downstream demand, and prices are expected to be weak [3] - **Asphalt**: The futures price rose on Thursday. Supply may decline slightly in the short - term due to profit reduction, and downstream demand is limited due to weather, so the price is treated with a bearish view [3] - **Polyester**: Futures prices of related products fell. Some devices had maintenance and restart operations. With the improvement of the PTA fundamentals, its price is expected to oscillate strongly, while the ethylene glycol has short - term supply improvement but medium - term inventory pressure, and its price will adjust widely [5] - **Rubber**: Futures prices fell on Thursday. The supply pressure increases while the downstream demand is weak externally, but winter storage demand supports the price, so the price is expected to oscillate [6] - **Methanol**: Supply has returned to a high level recently, but Iranian devices may stop in the future, and port inventory is expected to decline from December to January, so the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [6] - **Polyolefins**: The market is gradually shifting to a situation of strong supply and weak demand, but the low valuation may prompt downstream actions, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly at the bottom [6][8] - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: Market prices in different regions decreased. Supply remains high, and demand will decline due to the slowdown of real - estate construction, so the price is expected to oscillate weakly [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: WTI 12 - month contract closed down $0.3 to $59.14/barrel, Brent 1 - month contract closed down $0.13 to $63.38/barrel, and SC2512 closed at 456.7 yuan/barrel, down 1.7 yuan/barrel. The non - farm employment increased by 119,000 in August, and the unemployment rate reached a nearly four - year high. European ARA hub diesel inventory decreased by nearly 5%, gasoline inventory slightly decreased, naphtha inventory increased by nearly 10%, aviation fuel inventory slightly decreased, and fuel oil inventory increased [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, the main contract of fuel oil (FU2601) fell 1.76% to 2517 yuan/ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil (LU2601) fell 3.5% to 3139 yuan/ton. In October 2025, Singapore's total marine fuel sales were 4.8177 million tons, with a 1.1% month - on - month increase and a 1.23% year - on - year decrease. In November, low - sulfur supply is abundant, and high - sulfur has relatively healthy demand [3] - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the main contract (BU2601) rose 0.33% to 3058 yuan/ton. This week, domestic asphalt shipments decreased by 18.7% month - on - month, and the capacity utilization rate of modified asphalt enterprises decreased [3] - **Polyester**: TA601 closed down 0.34% at 4696 yuan/ton, EG2601 closed down 2.08% at 3822 yuan/ton, and PX601 closed down 0.58% at 6830 yuan/ton. Some devices had maintenance and restart operations, and the PTA load was adjusted to 72.1% [5] - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the main contract of natural rubber (RU2601) fell 190 yuan/ton to 15250 yuan/ton, and the main contract of 20 - number rubber (NR) fell 160 yuan/ton to 12320 yuan/ton. Rubber production is seasonally increasing, and imports are increasing year - on - year [6] - **Methanol**: On Thursday, the spot price in Taicang was 2000 yuan/ton. Domestic maintenance devices are resuming production, and Iranian devices may stop in the future [6] - **Polyolefins**: On Thursday, the price of East China PP and PE had different trends, and the profit of various production methods was negative. The market is gradually shifting to strong supply and weak demand [6][8] - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: Market prices in East, North, and South China decreased. Supply remains high, and demand will decline due to real - estate construction slowdown [8] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The table shows the spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and their changes of various energy - chemical products on November 20 and 19, 2025, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc. [9] 3.3 Market News - The latest report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that non - farm employment increased by 119,000 in August, and the unemployment rate reached a nearly four - year high. The ARA hub's inventory data for diesel, gasoline, naphtha, aviation fuel, and fuel oil in the week ending November 20 was released [12][13] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: There are charts showing the closing prices of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [15][16][17] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: Charts display the basis of main contracts of different products over time, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [32][37][38] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: There are charts showing the spreads between different contracts of various products, such as fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, etc. [44][50][53] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: Charts present the spreads between different varieties, including crude oil internal and external markets, fuel oil high - low sulfur, etc. [61][63][65] - **4.5 Production Profits**: There are charts showing the production profits of LLDPE, PP, etc. [68]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Reports Polyolefins - PP shows a pattern of both supply and demand increase, with reduced maintenance leading to increased supply and slight inventory accumulation under new capacity pressure. PE shows increased supply and decreased demand, with abundant imported goods and weak demand except for agricultural film. The cost side has fluctuating crude oil and strong coal, and PDH profits continue to weaken [2]. Crude Oil - The US proposed a new plan to restart the Russia - Ukraine peace negotiation, causing geopolitical premiums to decline and oil prices to fall. OPEC+ is continuously increasing production, and US crude oil production is at a new high, resulting in a weak supply - demand pattern and significant pressure on oil prices. Short - term Brent crude is expected to find support at $60 per barrel [3]. Natural Rubber - Supply: Domestic production areas are entering the production - reducing and cutting - off season, and rainfall in overseas areas keeps raw material prices high. However, the arrival of overseas ships is increasing seasonally, and inventory accumulation suppresses spot prices. Demand: Overall demand is weak, and the market mainly focuses on digesting channel inventory. It is expected that the natural rubber market will enter a range - bound consolidation [5]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda Ash: The market is in an overall surplus situation. Supply is high, and downstream demand is mainly based on rigid needs. The supply - demand pattern is still bearish, and it is recommended to wait for rebounds to short [7]. - Glass: Recently, prices have been falling, and low prices have driven better sales. However, there are still production line restarts in the future, which will increase supply pressure. In the short term, there is some rigid demand support, but in the long term, demand will shrink, and prices will be under pressure [7]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic Soda: The supply - demand situation is under pressure. The main downstream, alumina, has reduced purchasing enthusiasm. Although there is some supply reduction in the East China region, the long - term supply - demand pressure remains large, and prices are expected to be weak [8]. - PVC: The spot market is in a weak and volatile state. Supply is still at a high level, and demand is in the off - season. The export situation is not optimistic, and the supply - demand surplus pattern continues, with prices expected to remain at the bottom [8]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX: Asian and domestic PX loads have decreased, but supply remains high. Demand is weak, and although there are some supporting factors, the rebound space is limited, and it is expected to be in a high - level shock in the short term [9]. - PTA: After the maintenance of some devices, the basis has strengthened slightly. The supply - demand situation is expected to be relatively balanced in November and more relaxed from December to the first quarter. The rebound space is limited, and it is expected to be in a high - level shock in the short term [9]. - Ethylene Glycol: Domestic supply remains high, and overseas shipments will be concentrated in November, leading to inventory accumulation and a weak basis. It is under pressure above, and corresponding option and spread strategies are recommended [9]. - Short - fiber: Supply remains high, and demand is seasonally weak. The absolute price drive is limited, and processing fees are expected to be compressed [9]. - Bottle - grade PET: Supply changes little, and demand support is insufficient. The supply - demand pattern is loose, and the social inventory is likely to enter the seasonal accumulation period. The processing fee will follow the raw material cost [9]. Methanol - In the inland market, production will continue to increase, and marginal devices are in a loss state. In the port market, Iranian gas restrictions are postponed, and shipments are accelerating, resulting in high inventory and weak prices. The core contradiction is high port inventory, and the "weak reality" logic will continue [10]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure Benzene: Although there are maintenance expectations for some devices, imports are expected to be high, and overall supply may be relatively loose. Demand support is limited, and port inventory is accumulating. The supply pressure is large, and the short - term BZ2603 contract is recommended to be observed [13]. - Styrene: The supply - demand situation has improved, with export expectations and falling port inventory. However, profit recovery may lead to delayed maintenance and new device trials, and downstream EPS demand is expected to weaken, so the upside space is limited [13]. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Polyolefins - **Prices and Spreads**: L2601, L2605, PP2601, and PP2605 have different price changes, and there are also changes in spreads such as L15, PP15, and LP01. Spot prices of PP and LLDPE in some regions have declined [2]. - **Inventory and开工率**: PE and PP enterprise and social inventories have decreased to varying degrees. PE and PP device and downstream weighted开工率 also show different trends [2]. Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil prices have declined, and there are also changes in spreads such as Brent - WTI and SC - Brent. Product oil prices and spreads have also changed [3]. Natural Rubber - **Prices and Spreads**: Spot prices of various natural rubber products have changed, and there are also changes in monthly spreads such as 9 - 1, 1 - 5, and 5 - 9 [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Production in September in Thailand, Indonesia, India, and China has changed. Tire production, export, and import data in October have also changed, as well as开工率 data [5]. - **Inventory**: Bonded area inventory and factory - warehouse futures inventory have increased, while some出库 and入库 rates have changed [5]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Prices and Spreads**: Glass and soda ash prices in different regions and futures prices have changed, and basis has also changed [7]. - **Supply**: Soda ash production rate and weekly output have decreased slightly, and glass melting volume has remained stable [7]. - **Inventory**: Glass factory - warehouse inventory and soda ash factory - warehouse inventory have increased, while soda ash delivery - warehouse inventory has decreased [7]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Prices and Spreads**: PVC and caustic soda prices in different regions and futures prices have changed, and there are also changes in spreads [8]. - **Supply and Demand**: Chlor - alkali开工率 and industry profits have changed, and downstream开工率 of caustic soda and PVC has also changed. Inventory has decreased to some extent [8]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Downstream Product Prices and Cash Flows**: Prices of polyester products such as POY, FDY, and DTY have remained stable, and cash flows have changed [9]. - **PX - related**: PX prices and spreads have changed, and开工率 has decreased [9]. - **PTA - related**: PTA prices, basis, and processing fees have changed, and开工率 has decreased slightly [9]. - **MEG - related**: MEG prices, basis, and spreads have changed, and开工率 has changed slightly [9]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: Methanol futures and spot prices have changed, and basis and regional spreads have also changed [10]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise, port, and social inventories have decreased [10]. - **开工率**: Upstream and downstream开工率 of methanol have changed [10]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: Prices of pure benzene and related spreads have changed, and import profits have also changed [13]. - **Styrene - related Prices and Spreads**: Styrene prices, basis, and spreads have changed, and cash flows have also changed [13]. - **Downstream Cash Flows**: Cash flows of pure benzene and styrene downstream products have changed [13]. - **Inventory and开工率**: Pure benzene and styrene port inventories have changed, and产业链开工率 has also changed [13].

Core Viewpoint - PTA is currently supported by cost factors, with market focus on the execution of maintenance schedules and the recovery of export orders. The polyester futures prices are expected to remain supported due to cost boosts, domestic "anti-involution" policies, and improved export expectations from India [1] Group 1: Cost Support - The oil supply surplus is expected to persist from Q4 to Q1 next year, leading to a weak and fluctuating international oil price. The transmission of oil prices to the downstream industry is relatively mild due to low PTA processing fees [2] - Domestic PX operating rates have slightly decreased to 86.8% as of November 14, down 3 percentage points week-on-week, while Asian PX operating rates fell to 78.5%, down 1.7 percentage points. This decline is due to maintenance at several PX facilities in Asia, tightening PX spot market supply [2] - The PX market has seen a strong performance, with PXN absolute prices rising to $257 per ton, supported by favorable supply-demand dynamics [2] Group 2: Inventory Pressure - The PTA production capacity is expected to reach 91.715 million tons by the end of 2025, with a capacity growth rate of 9.5%. Recent new capacities have led to a relatively loose spot liquidity [3] - PTA social inventory is approximately 3.1561 million tons, showing a slight accumulation. The inventory structure is reasonable, with polyester factories maintaining raw material stock days at 13-14 days [3] - The recent removal of BIS certification for PTA and polyester products in India may accelerate inventory reduction if export demand materializes [3] Group 3: Polyester Production - The domestic polyester industry is projected to exceed 90 million tons in total production by 2025, with an expected average operating rate of 88.29%, providing rigid demand support for PTA [4] - Despite a high operating rate, the polyester industry has seen a decline in raw material stock levels and a weakening order atmosphere in the weaving sector [4] - The market is expected to face a balance between cost support and demand suppression, with PTA futures prices projected to fluctuate between 4500 and 4900 yuan per ton [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - PTA prices rose due to concerns about reduced PX supply and extended maintenance of a 2.2 million - ton PTA plant in East China, with spot basis strengthening and average downstream polyester sales [2]. - PX prices rebounded due to factors like high gasoline profit rates and low pure - benzene prices, which limited PX production. PTA supply slightly shrank, polyester开工 remained stable above 90%, and domestic polyester exports were optimistic. The downstream weaving industry performed well after "Golden September and Silver October" [2]. - The inventory of ethylene glycol in East China ports increased by 120,000 tons. New plant launches pressured ethylene glycol prices, and coal price increases did not strongly support costs. The Sino - US trade negotiation may increase textile and clothing export demand [2]. Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Market Data - **INE Crude Oil**: Price increased from 458.8 to 464.5 yuan/barrel, a change of 5.70 yuan [2]. - **PTA - SC**: Value increased from 1335.9 to 1336.4, a change of 0.58 [2]. - **PTA/SC (Ratio)**: Decreased from 1.4007 to 1.3959, a change of - 0.0047 [2]. - **CFR China PX**: Price increased from 827 to 832, a change of 5 [2]. - **PX - Naphtha Spread**: Increased from 256 to 264, a change of 8 [2]. - **PTA Main Futures Price**: Increased from 4670 to 4712 yuan/ton, a change of 42.0 yuan/ton [2]. - **PTA Spot Price**: Increased from 4610 to 4640 yuan/ton, a change of 30.0 yuan/ton [2]. - **PTA Spot Processing Fee**: Increased from 176.1 to 188.4 yuan/ton, a change of 12.2 yuan/ton [2]. - **PTA Futures Processing Fee**: Increased from 246.1 to 260.4 yuan/ton, a change of 14.2 yuan/ton [2]. - **PTA Main Basis**: No change, remaining at (72) [2]. - **PTA Warehouse Receipt Quantity**: No change, remaining at 111,696 [2]. - **MEG Main Futures Price**: Decreased from 3907 to 3903 yuan/ton, a change of - 4.0 yuan/ton [2]. - **MEG - Naphtha**: Decreased from (146.49) to (146.68) yuan/ton, a change of - 0.2 yuan/ton [2]. - **MEG Domestic Market**: Decreased from 3952 to 3919 yuan/ton, a change of - 33.0 yuan/ton [2]. - **MEG Main Basis**: Decreased from 36 to 26, a change of - 10.0 [2]. Industry Chain Operating Conditions - **PX Operating Rate**: Remained at 87.39% [2]. - **PTA Operating Rate**: Remained at 74.55% [2]. - **MEG Operating Rate**: Decreased from 61.86% to 60.73%, a change of - 1.13% [2]. - **Polyester Load**: Remained at 88.69% [2]. Product Data - **POY 150D/48F**: No change [2]. - **POY Cash Flow**: Decreased from 70 to 55, a change of - 15.0 [2]. - **FDY 150D/96F**: No change [2]. - **FDY Cash Flow**: Decreased from (175) to (190), a change of - 15.0 [2]. - **DTY 150D/48F**: No change [2]. - **DTY Cash Flow**: Decreased from 150 to 135, a change of - 15.0 [2]. - **Long - Filament Sales Volume**: Increased from 41% to 65%, a change of 24% [2]. - **1.4D Direct - Spun Polyester Staple Fiber**: Increased from 6350 to 6370 yuan/ton, a change of 20 yuan/ton [2]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber Cash Flow**: Increased from 185 to 190, a change of 5.0 [2]. - **Staple - Fiber Sales Volume**: Increased from 49% to 73%, a change of 24% [2]. - **Semi - Gloss Chip**: Increased from 5565 to 5570 yuan/ton, a change of 5.0 yuan/ton [2]. - **Chip Cash Flow**: Decreased from (50) to (60), a change of - 10.0 [2]. - **Chip Sales Volume**: Decreased from 49% to 48%, a change of - 1% [2]. Device Maintenance - A 900,000 - ton/year ethylene glycol plant in Singapore, originally planned to restart around the end of December 2025, has postponed its restart, and the specific restart plan is unknown [2].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is an early morning strategy report on energy and chemical options dated November 20, 2025 [1] - It covers various energy and chemical option types, including energy (crude oil, LPG), polyolefins (PP, PVC, etc.), polyesters (PX, PTA, etc.), alkali chemicals (caustic soda, soda ash), and others (rubber) [2] - The recommended strategy is to construct option portfolio strategies mainly as sellers and spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [2] Group 2: Underlying Futures Market Overview - The report provides the latest prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest of multiple underlying futures contracts, such as crude oil (SC2601), LPG (PG2601), and methanol (MA2601) [3] Group 3: Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - It presents the volume and open interest PCR of different option varieties, which are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market [4] Group 4: Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure and support levels of option underlyings are analyzed from the strike prices with the largest open interest of call and put options [5] Group 5: Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The report shows the implied volatility data of various options, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatility [6] Group 6: Strategy and Recommendations Crude Oil Options - Fundamental analysis shows that US crude oil inventories have different changes, with an increase in total, strategic, and commercial inventories and a decrease in Cushing inventories [7] - The price trend has been volatile, with different trends in each month from August to November [7] - Option factor research indicates that the implied volatility is above the average, the open interest PCR is below 0.80, and the pressure and support levels are 540 and 460 respectively [7] - Recommended strategies include a volatility strategy of selling a bearish call + put option combination and a spot long - hedging strategy of constructing a long collar [7] LPG Options - The LPG market is firm, with supply tightening recently. The price trend has also been volatile from August to November [9] - Option factors show that the implied volatility has dropped to below the average, the open interest PCR is around 0.80, and the pressure and support levels are 4500 and 4250 [9] - Recommended strategies include a volatility strategy of selling a neutral call + put option combination and a spot long - hedging strategy of constructing a long collar [9] Methanol Options - The supply of methanol may increase, and the price has shown a weak trend since August [9] - Option factors indicate that the implied volatility is around the historical average, the open interest PCR is below 0.80, and the pressure and support levels are 2500 and 2000 [9] - Recommended strategies include a directional strategy of constructing a bearish put spread, a volatility strategy of selling a bearish call + put option combination, and a spot long - hedging strategy of constructing a long collar [9] Ethylene Glycol Options - The supply of ethylene glycol has increased, and the price has been weak. Option factors show that the implied volatility is below the average, the open interest PCR is around 0.70, and the pressure and support levels are 4500 and 4050 [10] - Recommended strategies include a directional strategy of constructing a bearish put spread, a volatility strategy of shorting volatility, and a spot long - hedging strategy [10] Polypropylene Options - The production of polypropylene has increased, and the price has been weak. Option factors show that the implied volatility has dropped to around the average, the open interest PCR is around 0.70, and the pressure and support levels are 7000 and 6300 [10] - Recommended strategies include a directional strategy of constructing a bearish put spread and a spot long - hedging strategy [10] Rubber Options - The tire production capacity utilization rate has different changes, and the rubber price has been in a weak consolidation. Option factors show that the implied volatility has dropped to below the average, the open interest PCR is below 0.60, and the pressure and support levels are 16000 and 15000 [11] - Recommended strategies include a volatility strategy of selling a bearish call + put option combination [11] PTA Options - The PTA load has been adjusted, and the price has shown a rebound with pressure. Option factors show that the implied volatility is above the average, the open interest PCR is around 0.70, and the pressure and support levels are 4700 and 4300 [11] - Recommended strategies include a volatility strategy of selling a neutral call + put option combination [11] Caustic Soda Options - The production capacity utilization rate of caustic soda has changed regionally, and the price has been weak. Option factors show that the implied volatility is at a high level, the open interest PCR is below 0.80, and the pressure and support levels are 3000 and 2200 [12] - Recommended strategies include a directional strategy of constructing a bearish spread and a spot long - hedging strategy of constructing a long collar [12] Soda Ash Options - The inventory of soda ash has increased year - on - year, and the price has been in a low - level weak consolidation. Option factors show that the implied volatility is at a relatively high historical level, the open interest PCR is below 0.60, and the pressure and support levels are 1860 and 1100 [12] - Recommended strategies include a directional strategy of constructing a bearish spread, a volatility strategy of shorting volatility, and a spot long - hedging strategy of constructing a long collar [12] Urea Options - The enterprise inventory of urea has decreased, and the price has shown a rebound from low - level consolidation. Option factors show that the implied volatility is around the historical average, the open interest PCR is below 0.60, and the pressure and support levels are 1800 and 1600 [13] - Recommended strategies include a volatility strategy of selling a neutral call + put option combination and a spot long - hedging strategy [13] Group 7: Option Charts - The report includes various option charts for different underlying assets, such as price trend charts, trading volume and open interest charts, open interest PCR and trading volume PCR charts, and implied volatility charts for crude oil, LPG, methanol, etc. [14][35][55]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Polyolefins - PP shows a pattern of both supply and demand growth, with reduced maintenance leading to increased supply and a slight accumulation of inventory under the pressure of new production capacity. PE shows increased supply and decreased demand. Although unplanned maintenance eases some supply pressure, imported goods are abundant, and demand is generally weak except for agricultural films. The inventory of hedging merchants is gradually decreasing, the basis is strengthening, and inventory is being cleared. When the price is below 6800, the downstream's willingness to buy increases. The cost side is affected by the shock of crude oil and the strength of coal, and the PDH profit has continued to weaken this week. [2] Methanol - In the domestic market, Baofeng continues to purchase externally, and Jiutai has an unexpected maintenance. The domestic production will continue to increase. Currently, the marginal devices in the domestic market have suffered losses. In the port market, the gas restriction in Iran has been postponed, and the shipment has accelerated. As of November 19, Iran has shipped 885,000 tons, putting significant pressure on the port methanol market. With high inventory and the profit of imported methanol from Iran, the willingness to hold goods has weakened, and the price has declined while the basis remains stable. The demand side is based on rigid procurement. The market is currently trading on the logic of "weak reality", and the core contradiction lies in the high inventory in the port. The inventory contradiction of the 01 contract cannot be resolved, and the weak reality will continue to be traded before the gas restriction in Iran. [4] Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash: The market has returned to a weak state, and the overall pattern of oversupply is still prominent. Fundamentally, the weekly production remains at a high level of around 750,000 tons, and the oversupply is obvious compared with the current rigid demand. The inventory of manufacturers has been transferred to the middle and lower reaches, and the trade inventory has continued to rise. In the medium term, there is no expectation of a significant increase in downstream production capacity, so the overall demand for soda ash will continue the previous rigid demand pattern. If there is no actual production capacity exit or load reduction in the future, the supply - demand situation will be further pressured. - Glass: The spot sales have strengthened, and the high sales rate in some regions has continued to be above 100%. Consecutive price cuts have driven the middle and lower reaches to purchase. Although 4 production lines in the Shahe area were cold - repaired last week, there will be production lines restarting and igniting in the future, which will put pressure on the supply side. The latest deep - processing order days have improved slightly, and there is still some rigid demand support in the short term as November is the peak season for year - end rush work. However, in the medium and long term, at the end of the peak season, the market is worried about the sustainability of future demand. As the temperature in the north drops, outdoor construction will gradually stop, and the demand side will shrink after December, putting pressure on the glass price. The real estate is still in the bottom cycle, and the completion volume has decreased significantly. Therefore, in the oversupply pattern, the glass industry still needs to clear production capacity to solve the oversupply dilemma. [7] PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda: The supply - demand situation of the caustic soda industry still faces certain pressure. The purchasing enthusiasm of the main downstream alumina has decreased, so the support from the main demand side of caustic soda is weak, which suppresses the caustic soda price upwards. During the northern environmental protection control period, some alumina plants may have production reduction expectations. There is an overhaul expectation in the East China region, and the supply will decrease slightly. The price in this region may be relatively stable due to certain rigid demand support, but in the long term, the supply - demand still has pressure. The non - aluminum market is still sluggish, and overall, the supply - demand pressure is still relatively large. It is expected that the caustic soda price will fluctuate weakly. - PVC: The PVC spot market continues to fluctuate weakly. This week, maintenance and partial device load reduction have led to a decrease in production on a month - on - month basis, but it is still at a high level. Affected by local logistics, the market arrivals have decreased, and the social inventory has decreased on a month - on - month basis. Next week, the supply - side operating rate will increase. The demand side is in the traditional off - season from November to January of the next year. As the outdoor construction in the north gradually decreases in winter, the overall real estate demand reduction still has a negative impact. In terms of exports, India has officially cancelled the BIS certification for imported PVC issued in 2024, which is beneficial for domestic PVC to enter the Indian market. However, there is an expectation of anti - dumping duties, and the Asian contract price for December is still to be observed next week. It is expected that the external demand will be difficult to increase. The overall demand side has limited support for PVC. The supply - demand is still in an oversupply pattern, and it is difficult for the price to form an upward drive. It is expected to continue the weak pattern at the bottom. [8] Natural Rubber - The supply side: Yunnan has encountered cold weather, which has accelerated the end of the tapping season in Yunnan. The rainy season in southern Thailand continues, and the price of overseas raw materials is high, which strongly supports the rubber price. The demand side: Currently, the overall demand is weak. Channels are cautious in purchasing and mainly focus on digesting inventory. Next week, the purchasing enthusiasm of some agents on an as - needed basis may increase slightly, which will drive the overall sales volume. However, the overall demand is weakening, and the actual increase in purchasing volume is limited. The market still mainly focuses on digesting inventory. In conclusion, the natural rubber inventory has entered the seasonal inventory accumulation period, and the terminal demand support is insufficient. There is an expectation that the operating rate of downstream enterprises will further decline. It is expected that the natural rubber market will enter a range - bound consolidation. In the future, attention should be paid to the raw material output in the peak production season of the main producing areas and macro - level changes. If the raw material supply is smooth, the rubber price is expected to decline. If the raw material supply is not smooth, the rubber price is expected to operate in the range of 15,000 - 15,500. [9] Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: Recently, many sets of pure benzene devices have overhaul expectations, but the import expectation remains high, and the overall supply may still be relatively loose. On the demand side, the load of downstream styrene has increased due to the restart of some devices, but some loss - making varieties have reduced production to maintain prices, and the domestic demand side has limited support. The port inventory has increased, and there are still many arrivals in the future, so the supply pressure of pure benzene is relatively large. After the overhaul of the disproportionation device in the US Gulf ends, the support from blending oil may weaken, but South Korea's aromatics have an export expectation to the US, and the US dollar price of pure benzene has increased. Overall, the supply - demand expectation of pure benzene is still relatively loose, and the limited support from the cost side may limit the upward space. It may fluctuate and consolidate. However, since the current valuation of pure benzene is low, future attention should be paid to device changes. In the short term, it is advisable to wait and see for BZ2603. - Styrene: After the overhaul of the disproportionation device in the US Gulf ends, the blending oil demand may weaken. However, in November, the supply - demand situation of styrene has further improved. With the South Korean mixed aromatics trading, styrene has an export transaction expectation, and the port inventory has decreased. There are positive factors supporting styrene, and it will mainly fluctuate and repair in the short term. However, as the profit of styrene is repaired, the overhaul of some factories may be delayed. Coupled with the trial operation of new devices and the expected weakening of downstream EPS demand, it is expected that the upward space of styrene will be limited. In the short term, the price of EB01 may mainly fluctuate and consolidate. [10] Polyester Industry Chain - PX: Recently, the operating loads of Asian and domestic PX have decreased. However, the supply of Asian MX is abundant, and some factories rely on MX to supplement PX production, so the PX supply still remains at a relatively high level. On the demand side, the PTA price still has certain support this week. However, the spot floating price and monthly spread of PX are still weak, and the overall support from oil prices is limited. It is expected that the rebound space of PX is limited. Strategically, PX should be regarded as a short - term high - level shock. - PTA: As two PTA devices in East China are gradually under maintenance, the basis has slightly strengthened. According to the balance sheet, the supply - demand of PTA is in a tight balance in November, but the supply - demand of PTA is expected to be relatively loose from December to the first quarter of next year, and the upward drive of the basis is limited. In terms of absolute price, recently, the absolute price of PTA is relatively strong due to the support of blending oil demand and India's cancellation of BIS certification. However, the overall support from oil prices is limited, and the rebound space of PTA is still limited. Strategically, TA should be regarded as a short - term high - level shock, and TA1 - 5 should be treated as a rolling reverse spread. - Ethylene glycol: The operating load of ethylene glycol is at a high level. The arrival of overseas ethylene glycol shipments is relatively concentrated in November, and the port inventory will continue to increase recently, and the basis will weaken. In addition, the inventory accumulation amplitude of ethylene glycol from November to December is expected to be relatively high, and the upward pressure on ethylene glycol is significant. Strategically, the seller of the out - of - the - money call option with an exercise price of no less than 4100 for EG2601 should hold, and EG1 - 5 should be reversely spread at high levels. - Short - fiber: Although the spot processing margin of short - fiber has been significantly compressed recently, there is still profit at present, and the inventory pressure of short - fiber factories is not large, so the short - fiber supply remains at a high level. On the demand side, the terminal demand has seasonally weakened in November. In addition, the cancellation of India's BIS certification has certain benefits for PTA and filament, but has relatively little impact on short - fiber. Therefore, under the short - term weak supply - demand expectation and cost - side support, it is expected that the absolute price of short - fiber will be under pressure, and the processing margin still has room for compression. Strategically, the unilateral strategy is the same as that of PTA; the processing margin on the disk should be shorted at high levels. - Bottle - grade polyester: In mid - November, the Huarun device has both maintenance and restart. In addition, according to Longzhong Information, the commissioning of the new device of Dongying Fuhai has been postponed, and the domestic supply has not changed much. Considering that November is in the off - season of demand and the window period between the Spring Festival stocking, the demand side has insufficient support for bottle - grade polyester. The supply - demand of bottle - grade polyester remains in a loose pattern. Therefore, the social inventory of bottle - grade polyester will probably enter the seasonal inventory accumulation channel, and PR will mainly fluctuate with the cost side. The processing margin of PR is limitedly boosted by supply - demand and will change dynamically with the raw material cost. Strategically, the unilateral strategy of PR is the same as that of PTA; the processing margin of the main contract of PR is expected to fluctuate in the range of 300 - 450 yuan/ton. [12] Crude Oil - Overnight, affected by the news that Russia and Ukraine may restart peace talks, the geopolitical premium has declined, and the oil price has declined under pressure. However, EIA data shows that the US crude oil inventory has decreased more than expected, and the decline of the oil price has been slightly narrowed. Recently, attacks or sanctions caused by the Russia - Ukraine issue have had a short - term impact on the oil price. However, under the pressure of continuous production increase by OPEC+ and the record - high US crude oil production, the supply - demand pattern of crude oil is still weak, and the upward pressure on the oil price is significant. In the short term, attention should be paid to the support of Brent crude oil at $60 per barrel and the geopolitical dynamics between Russia and Ukraine. [14] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Polyolefins - **Price and Spread**: The closing prices of L2601, L2605, PP2601, and PP2605 have all increased, and the L15 and PP15 spreads have also increased. The spot prices of East China PP raffia and North China LLDPE have increased, while the North China LL basis has decreased significantly, and the East China pp basis has remained unchanged. The prices of some PE and PP non - standard products have remained unchanged, while the prices of some have decreased. - **Inventory**: PE enterprise inventory and social inventory have decreased, while PP enterprise inventory has increased, and PP trader inventory has decreased. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rate of PE devices has increased slightly, while the weighted operating rate of PE downstream has decreased slightly. The operating rate of PP devices and powder devices has increased, and the weighted operating rate of PP downstream has increased slightly. [2] Methanol - **Price and Spread**: The closing prices of MA2601 and MA2605 have decreased, and the MA15 spread has increased. The basis of Taicang has remained unchanged. The spot prices of Inner Mongolia North Line and Henan Luoyang have increased, while the spot price of Taicang Port has decreased. The regional spreads have changed significantly. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory, port inventory, and social inventory have all decreased. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rates of domestic and overseas upstream enterprises have increased, the production - sales rate of Northwest enterprises has increased, the operating rate of downstream external - procurement MTO devices has decreased, the operating rate of downstream formaldehyde has increased slightly, the operating rate of downstream acetic acid has decreased significantly, and the operating rate of downstream MTBE has increased. [4] Glass and Soda Ash - **Price and Spread**: The prices of glass in North China have remained unchanged, while the prices in East China, Central China, and South China have decreased. The closing prices of glass 2601 have decreased, and the closing price of glass 2605 has remained unchanged. The 01 basis has increased. The prices of soda ash in North China, East China, Central China, and Northwest have remained unchanged. The closing prices of soda ash 2601 and 2605 have decreased, and the 01 basis has increased significantly. - **Supply**: The operating rate and weekly output of soda ash have decreased slightly, the daily melting volume of float glass has remained unchanged, the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass has decreased, and the price of 3.2mm coated glass has decreased. - **Inventory**: The inventory of glass factories has increased, the inventory of soda ash factories has increased, the inventory of soda ash delivery warehouses has decreased, and the inventory days of soda ash in glass factories have remained unchanged. - **Real Estate Data**: The new construction area, construction area, completion area, and sales area have all decreased compared with the previous period. [7] PVC and Caustic Soda - **Price and Spread**: The prices of Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda and 50% liquid caustic soda have remained unchanged. The market prices of East China calcium - carbide - based PVC and East China ethylene - based PVC have decreased. The prices of SHSEOS, SH2601, V2605, and V2601 have decreased, and the V basis has increased significantly. - **Export and Profit**: The overseas quotes and export profits of caustic soda and PVC have some data unavailable, and some data have changed. - **Supply and Profit**: The operating rate of the caustic soda industry and the sample operating rate in Shandong have decreased slightly, the operating rate of PVC has decreased, the profit of externally - purchased calcium - carbide - based PVC has remained unchanged, and the profit of Northwest integrated PVC has decreased. - **Demand**: The operating rates of some downstream industries of caustic soda and PVC have increased or decreased. The pre - sales volume of PVC has decreased. - **Inventory**: The factory - warehouse inventory of liquid caustic soda in East China and Shandong has decreased, the upstream factory - warehouse inventory of PVC has decreased, and the total social inventory of PVC has decreased. [8] Natural Rubber - **Price and Spread**: The price of Yunnan state - owned full - latex has increased, the full - latex basis has decreased, the price of Thai standard mixed rubber has decreased, the non - standard price difference has decreased significantly, and the prices of some raw materials have remained unchanged. The 9 - 1 spread has remained unchanged, the 1 - 5 spread has increased, and the 5 - 9 spread has decreased. - **Production and Consumption**: The production of Thailand, Indonesia, and China in September has changed, the production of India has increased. The operating rates of semi - steel and full - steel tires have changed slightly, the domestic tire production in October has decreased, the tire export volume in October has decreased, the import volume of natural rubber in September has increased, and the import volume of natural and synthetic rubber in October has decreased. - **Inventory**: The bonded - area inventory and the factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber in the SHFE have increased, the出库 rate of dry rubber in the bonded warehouse in Qingdao has decreased, and the入库 and出库 rates of dry rubber in general trade in Qingdao have increased. [9] Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Upstream Price and Spread**: The prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, and CFR Japan naphtha have decreased, the price of CFR Northeast Asia ethylene has remained unchanged, the price of CFR China pure benzene has increased, the pure benzene - naphtha spread and ethylene - naphtha spread have decreased,

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core View of the Report - PX prices are rebounding due to limited production, driven by high gasoline profit rates and low pure - benzene prices. PTA supply has slightly shrunk, polyester开工 remains stable with high load, and domestic polyester exports are optimistic. Downstream weaving shows good performance, and export demand may improve [2]. - The inventory of ethylene glycol in East China ports has increased significantly. New device commissions put pressure on prices, and although coal prices are rising, they do not strongly support the cost of ethylene glycol. The tariff reduction after the Sino - US trade negotiation may increase textile and clothing export demand [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - INE crude oil price increased from 458.1 yuan/barrel on 2025/11/17 to 458.8 yuan/barrel on 2025/11/18, with a change of 0.70 yuan/barrel [2]. - PTA - SC decreased from 1362.9 yuan/ton to 1335.9 yuan/ton, a change of - 27.09 yuan/ton; PTA/SC decreased from 1.4094 to 1.4007, a change of - 0.0087 [2]. - CFR China PX decreased from 831 to 827, a change of - 4; PX - naphtha spread increased from 254 to 256, a change of 2 [2]. - PTA主力期价 decreased from 4692 yuan/ton to 4670 yuan/ton, a change of - 22.0 yuan/ton; PTA现货价格 decreased from 4615 to 4610, a change of - 5.0 [2]. - PTA现货加工费 increased from 172.2 yuan/ton to 176.1 yuan/ton, a change of 3.9 yuan/ton; PTA盘面加工费 decreased from 249.2 yuan/ton to 246.1 yuan/ton, a change of - 3.1 yuan/ton [2]. - MEG主力期价 decreased from 3938 yuan/ton to 3907 yuan/ton, a change of - 31.0 yuan/ton; MEG内盘 decreased from 3980 to 3952, a change of - 28.0 [2]. - PX开工率 remained at 87.39%, PTA开工率 remained at 74.55%, MEG开工率 increased from 61.17% to 61.86%, a change of 0.69%, and聚酯负荷 remained at 88.69% [2]. - POY150D/48F decreased from 6590 to 6585, a change of - 5.0; POY现金流 increased from 61 to 70, a change of 9.0 [2]. - FDY150D/96F remained at 6840; FDY现金流 increased from - 189 to - 175, a change of 14.0 [2]. - DTY150D/48F remained at 7865; DTY现金流 increased from 136 to 150, a change of 14.0 [2]. - 长丝产销 decreased from 45% to 41%, a change of - 4% [2]. - 1.4D直纺涤短 decreased from 6375 to 6350, a change of - 25; 涤短现金流 decreased from 196 to 185, a change of - 11.0 [2]. - 短纤产销 increased from 35% to 49%, a change of 14% [2]. - 半光切片 decreased from 5575 to 5565, a change of - 10.0; 切片现金流 increased from - 54 to - 50, a change of 4.0 [2]. - 切片产销 increased from 37% to 49%, a change of 12% [2]. Market Analysis - PTA market: PTA prices decreased slightly due to falling crude oil prices and cost reduction. PTA is in the process of de - stocking, and the spot basis has strengthened [2]. - MEG market: The ethylene glycol futures fluctuated weakly, the spot price in Zhangjiagang decreased, and the basis negotiation weakened. The inventory in East China ports increased by 120,000 tons [2]. Device Maintenance - A 900,000 - ton/year ethylene glycol plant in Singapore, which was originally planned to restart around the end of December 2025, has postponed its restart time, and the specific restart plan is unknown [2].