Group 1 - The Shanghai gold futures closed at 1016.30 CNY per gram on December 26, with a daily increase of 0.75% and a trading volume of 224,588 contracts [1] - The spot price of gold in Shanghai was quoted at 1009.00 CNY per gram, indicating a discount of 7.3 CNY per gram compared to the futures price [1] - The probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates by 25 basis points in January is 15.5%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 84.5% [1] Group 2 - Guotai Junan Futures suggests that the gold market is experiencing fluctuations around the 1000 CNY mark, supported by expectations of interest rate cuts [2] - The report indicates that the main gold contract closed at 1008.76 USD per ounce, showing a slight decline of 0.58%, and is fluctuating within the 1000-1010 USD range [2] - The medium to long-term outlook for gold prices is positive, with expectations for a strong upward trend, while short-term movements are expected to be strong and volatile [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the content. 2. Report's Core View - The report presents the base - rate statistics of various futures and spot commodities on December 26, 2025, including base - rate changes, monthly basis differences, contract prices, and spot prices [3]. 3. Summary by Related Categories Non - ferrous Metals - Copper (CU): The main contract base - rate is - 0.56%, an increase of 0.04% from the previous day. The spot price is 94,760 (SMM 1 electrolytic copper) [3]. - Aluminum (AL): The main contract base - rate is - 0.86%, a decrease of 0.05% from the previous day. The spot price is 21,980 (SMM A00 aluminum) [3]. - Zinc (ZN): The main contract base - rate is 0.33%, an increase of 0.05% from the previous day. The spot price is 23,080 (SMM 0 zinc ingot) [3]. - Lead (PB): The main contract base - rate is - 0.96%, a decrease of 0.31% from the previous day. The spot price is 17,100 (SMM 1 lead ingot) [3]. - Tin (SN): The main contract base - rate is - 0.36%, an increase of 0.68% from the previous day. The spot price is 332,750 (SMM 1 tin) [3]. - Nickel (NI): The main contract base - rate is 1.83%, a decrease of 0.72% from the previous day. The spot price is 127,400 (SMM 1 electrolytic nickel) [3]. - Industrial Silicon: The main contract base - rate is 5.29%, an increase of 0.30% from the previous day. The spot price is 9,250 (SMM annual flux 253 silicon) [3]. - Lithium Carbonate (LC): The main contract base - rate is - 3.2%, an increase of 14.15% from the previous day. The spot price is 116,750 (Steel Union's high - quality battery - grade lithium carbonate) [3]. Precious Metals - Gold (AU): The main contract base - rate is - 0.57%, an increase of 0.17% from the previous day. The spot price is 1,003.01 (AuT + D: Shanghai Gold Exchange) [3]. - Silver (AG): The main contract base - rate is 0.10%, a decrease of 0.50% from the previous day. The spot price is 17,414 (Ag(T + D): Shanghai Gold Exchange) [3]. Black Industry - Rebar (RB): The main contract base - rate is 5.21%, a decrease of 1.29% from the previous day. The spot price is 3,290 (HRB400: 20mm: Shanghai) [3]. - Hot - rolled Coil (HC): The main contract base - rate is 0.30%, an increase of 1.07% from the previous day. The spot price is 3,290 (Q235B: 4.75mm: Shanghai) [3]. - Iron Ore: The main contract base - rate is 6.92%, an increase of 0.14% from the previous day. The spot price is 832.4 (PB powder: 61%: Qingdao) [3]. - Coke: The main contract base - rate is - 8.28%, an increase of 0.37% from the previous day. The spot price is 1,595 (Metallurgical coke: quasi - first - class) [3]. - Coking Coal and Steam Coal (JM, ZC): The main contract base - rates are - 0.58% and 14.3% respectively. The spot prices are 1,117.5 (Main coking coal: clean coal: Mongolian No. 5) and 689.0 (Shanxi Q500: Qinhuangdao) [3]. - Ferrosilicon (SE): The main contract base - rate is - 7.41%, a decrease of 0.59% from the previous day. The spot price is 5,270 (FeSi75 - B: Inner Mongolia) [3]. - Manganese Silicon (SM): The main contract base - rate is - 1.30%, a decrease of 0.24% from the previous day. The spot price is 5,770 (FeMn68Si18: Hebei) [3]. - Stainless Steel: The main contract base - rate is 0.46%, an increase of 0.65% from the previous day. The spot price is 13,050 (304/2B: 2.0*1219: Angang Lianzhong Wuxi) [3]. - Glass (FG): The main contract base - rate is - 3.5%, a decrease of 0.86% from the previous day. The spot price is 1,010 (North China 5mm float glass market price) [3]. Oilseeds and Oils - Soybean: The main contract base - rate is - 4.4%, a decrease of 0.44% from the previous day. The spot price is 3,940 (Domestic third - grade soybean: Harbin) [3]. - Soybean Meal (M): The main contract base - rate is 9.42%, a decrease of 1.65% from the previous day. The spot price is 3,020 (Ordinary protein soybean meal: Zhangjiagang) [3]. - Rapeseed Meal (RM) and Rapeseed Oil (V): The main contract base - rates are 7.57% and 6.72% respectively. The spot prices are 2,530 (Ordinary rapeseed meal: Nantong) and 8,320 (First - grade soybean oil: Zhangjiagang) [3]. - Peanut (PK): The main contract base - rate is 16.98%, an increase of 0.26% from the previous day. The spot price is 9,300 (Baisha peanuts: 45% oil content, 9% water content, Changtu) [3]. - Palm Oil (P): The main contract base - rate is - 0.61%, a decrease of 0.40% from the previous day. The spot price is 8,490 (24 - degree palm oil: Guangdong) [3]. - Corn (C): The main contract base - rate is 4.61%, an increase of 0.33% from the previous day. The spot price is 2,290 (National - standard first - grade corn at Huangpu Port) [3]. - Corn Starch (CS): The main contract base - rate is 3.46%, an increase of 0.41% from the previous day. The spot price is 2,570 (Factory - delivered price of corn starch: Changchun) [3]. Agricultural and Sideline Products - Apple (AP): The main contract base - rate is - 6.50%, a decrease of 0.17% from the previous day. The spot price is 8,600 (Average of Yantai Qixia and Shaanxi Luochuan Red Fuji apples) [3]. - Egg (JD): The main contract base - rate is - 1.56%, an increase of 0.03% from the previous day. The spot price is 2,900 (Eggs: Hebei Cangzhou) [3]. - Live Pig (LH): The main contract base - rate is 2.97%, an increase of 0.61% from the previous day. The spot price is 11,800 (One - yuan live pigs from Henan) [3]. Soft Commodities - Cotton (CF): The main contract base - rate is 7.18%, a decrease of 0.51% from the previous day. The spot price is 15,279 (Cotton price index 328: Xinjiang) [3]. - Sugar (SR): The main contract base - rate is 2.87%, a decrease of 0.14% from the previous day. The spot price is 5,420 (White sugar: Liuzhou) [3]. - Methanol (MA): The main contract base - rate is 0.14%, unchanged from the previous day. The spot price is 2,165 (Methanol: East China) [3]. - Ethanol (EG): The main contract base - rate is - 4.4%, an increase of 0.13% from the previous day. The spot price is 3,650 (Ethanol: East China) [3]. - PTA (TA): The main contract base - rate is - 1.40%, an increase of 0.06% from the previous day. The spot price is 5,080 (PTA: East China) [3]. - Polypropylene (PP): The main contract base - rate is 8.52%, an increase of 0.21% from the previous day. The spot price is 6,800 (Market price of Hangzhou Shaoxing Sanyuan T30S) [3]. - Styrene (EB): The main contract base - rate is 0.26%, an increase of 0.38% from the previous day. The spot price is 11111 (Styrene: East China) [3]. - Polyester Staple Fiber (PF): The main contract base - rate is 0.00%, a decrease of 0.25% from the previous day. The spot price is 6,540 (Yifangxiang semi - bright natural white 1.56*38mm) [3]. - Plastic: The main contract base - rate is 0.16%, an increase of 1.84% from the previous day. The spot price is 6,400 (Market price of Yuyao Zhejiang Petrochemical 7042) [3]. - PVC (V): The main contract base - rate is - 5.40%, an increase of 0.47% from the previous day. The spot price is 4,500 (East China SG - 5 Xinjiang Zhongtai mainstream price) [3]. - Rubber (RU): The main contract base - rate is - 3.3%, an increase of 0.15% from the previous day. The spot price is 15,200 (Thai - produced: Qingdao Free Trade Zone) [3]. - 20 - number Rubber (NR): The main contract base - rate is 3.77%, an increase of 0.02% from the previous day. The spot price is 13,174 (Thai 20 standard rubber: Qingdao Free Trade Zone) [3]. - Soda Ash (SA): The main contract base - rate is - 4.1%, a decrease of 0.17% from the previous day. The spot price is 1,135 (Shahe heavy - quality market price) [3]. - Urea (UR): The main contract base - rate is - 1.72%, a decrease of 0.28% from the previous day. The spot price is 1,710 (Small - particle urea: Henan) [3]. - Pulp (SP): The main contract base - rate is - 1.41%, an increase of 0.28% from the previous day. The spot price is 5,525 (Bleached softwood pulp: Silver Star: Chile) [3]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil (SC): The main contract base - rate is - 8.5%, an increase of 0.45% from the previous day. The spot price is 406.6 (Chinese Shengli: Pacific Rim) [3]. - Fuel Oil (FU): The main contract base - rate is 6.42%, a decrease of 0.55% from the previous day. The spot price is 2,649 (Bonded marine fuel oil 380CST: Zhoushan) [3]. - Asphalt (BU): The main contract base - rate is - 2.50%, an increase of 0.03% from the previous day. The spot price is 2,920 (Heavy - traffic asphalt: market price: Shandong) [3]. - Low - sulfur Fuel Oil (LU): The main contract base - rate is - 0.21%, an increase of 0.01% from the previous day. The spot price is 3,010 (Marine fuel oil 0.5% low - sulfur: Singapore) [3]. - LPG (PG): The main contract base - rate is 11.09%, an increase of 1.39% from the previous day. The spot price is 4,528 (Market price: Guangzhou) [3]. Stock Index Futures - CSI 300 (IF): The main contract base - rate is 0.69%, a decrease of 0.16% from the previous day. The spot price is 4,642.5 [3]. - SSE 50 (IH): The main contract base - rate is - 0.04%, an increase of 0.02% from the previous day. The spot price is 3,032.8 [3]. - CSI 500 (IC): The main contract base - rate is 1.23%, a decrease of 0.31% from the previous day. The spot price is 7,410.7 [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the natural rubber market price increased. Imported rubber market offers rose, with traders mainly engaged in wheel - warehouse exchanges. The restocking sentiment in January was strong, while factories mainly adopted a wait - and - see attitude. Domestic natural rubber spot offers also increased following the market, but downstream demand did not improve significantly, with most adopting a cautious wait - and - see approach and maintaining rigid demand procurement, resulting in weak actual order transactions [9]. - The domestic Yunnan rubber - producing area is in the non - tapping period. In the Hainan producing area, some rubber forests in the western and southern regions are still tapping, but due to rainfall, the raw material output on the island has further decreased, and local private processing plants have gradually shut down. It is expected that the producing area will basically stop tapping in early January and completely stop in mid - January. Recently, the total inventory at Qingdao Port has continued to accumulate, with both bonded warehouses and general trade warehouses showing inventory accumulation, and the total inventory accumulation rate has continued to expand month - on - month. The arrival and warehousing of overseas mixed rubber have increased, while downstream factories mainly consume their own inventories, with low restocking willingness, and the overall outbound volume is lower than expected. In terms of demand, domestic tire enterprises have flexibly arranged production this week, with some enterprises controlling production. The operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises has increased slightly month - on - month, while that of all - steel tire enterprises has decreased. Entering the seasonal off - season, the overall shipment rhythm of enterprises is slow, and the finished product inventory has increased. Under production and sales pressure, some enterprises have limited or stopped production [9]. - The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,400 - 16,000 in the short term, and the nr2602 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,400 - 13,000 in the short term [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The natural rubber market price increased this week. Imported rubber offers rose, and domestic spot offers also increased. Downstream demand remained weak [9]. - **Market Outlook**: Yunnan is in the non - tapping period, and Hainan's output is decreasing. Qingdao Port's inventory is accumulating, and downstream restocking willingness is low. Tire enterprises' operating rates are mixed, and they are in the seasonal off - season [9]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate between 15,400 - 16,000, and the nr2602 contract between 12,400 - 13,000 [9]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market**: The main contract price of Shanghai rubber futures rose by 3.88% week - on - week, and the 20 - rubber main contract price rose by 3.2% week - on - week. As of December 25, the Shanghai rubber warehouse receipt was 93,230 tons, an increase of 6,070 tons from last week; the 20 - rubber warehouse receipt was 57,960 tons, a decrease of 1,008 tons from last week. As of December 26, the Shanghai rubber 5 - 9 spread was 30, and the 20 - rubber 2 - 3 spread was - 25 [12][22][27]. - **Spot Market**: As of December 25, the state - owned full - latex was reported at 15,300 yuan/ton, an increase of 300 yuan/ton from last week. The 20 - rubber basis was 433 yuan/ton, a decrease of 103 yuan/ton from last week; the non - standard basis was - 930 yuan/ton, a decrease of 160 yuan/ton from last week [29][36]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Upstream**: As of December 26, the field latex in the Thai natural rubber raw material market was 54.2 (- 1.8) Thai baht/kg; the cup lump was 51 (+ 0.25) Thai baht/kg. The standard rubber theoretical processing profit was - 17.4 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 19.8 US dollars/ton from last week. As of December 25, the fresh latex price in Hainan was 13,900 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week, and Yunnan was in the non - tapping period [39][42]. - **Import Situation**: In November 2025, China's natural rubber import volume was 643,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 25.98% and a year - on - year increase of 14.69%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative import volume was 5.8716 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 16.98% [45]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of December 21, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 515,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16,300 tons, an increase of 3.28%. The bonded area inventory was 79,600 tons, an increase of 2.72%; the general trade inventory was 435,600 tons, an increase of 3.38%. The total inventory at Qingdao Port continued to accumulate [49]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - **Tire Operating Rate**: As of December 25, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.36%, a month - on - month increase of 0.35 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.37 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.69%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.92 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.72 percentage points [52]. - **Tire Exports**: In November 2025, China's tire export volume was 688,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.40 and a year - on - year increase of 1.82%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative tire export volume was 7.7321 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.51%. Among them, the export volume of passenger car tires was 237,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.99% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.04%; the export volume of truck and bus tires was 418,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.00% and a year - on - year increase of 6.65% [55]. - **Domestic Demand**: In November 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 100,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 6% compared with October and a year - on - year increase of about 46%. From January to November this year, the cumulative sales volume of the heavy - truck market exceeded 1 million vehicles, reaching 1.03 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 26% [58].

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.12. 26」 贵金属市场周报 作者： 研究员 廖宏斌 期货投资咨询证号：Z0020723 助理研究员 徐鼎烽 期货从业资格号：F03144963 「 周度要点小结」 ◆ 本周观点：本周贵金属市场继续强势运行，沪银主力合约录得上市后单周最大涨幅。在实物库存持续紧 张的支撑下，白银市场挤仓行情延续，多头情绪占据主导，大量空头受"挤压"离场进一步助推银价上 行动能，金银比持续回落。宏观数据方面，美国第三季度实际GDP年化季率初值录得近两年以来最快增速， 其中消费支出为主要拉动项；同期核心PCE物价指数符合市场预期，显示通胀压力趋于缓和。特朗普近期 多次表示，期望下一任美联储主席在经济与市场表现稳健的背景下继续推行降息，这在一定程度上强化 了市场对未来流动性保持宽松的预期。综合来看，就业数据持续走软、通胀走势平缓，叠加市场对美联 储可能扩表并维持宽松流动性的预期，共同巩固了货币政策趋向宽松的宏观叙事。在此背景下，美元指 数短期预计延续弱势，贵金属的看涨逻辑尚未出现明显松动，但近期价格连续快速拉升，市场波动显著 放大，价格已一定程度偏离基本面支撑，需警惕技术性回调风险。此外，金银比价已回落 ...

瑞达期货研究院 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业链分析 「 周度要点小结」 「 2025.12.26」 尿素市场周报 研究员：林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询证书号Z0021558 3 行情回顾：本周国内尿素市场偏强波动，截止本周四山东中小颗粒主流出厂至1670-1740元/吨， 均价环比上涨20元/吨。近期虽然实际出口量未出现明显异常，但市场不断出现对出口预期的猜想， 市场情绪反复，一定程度刺激了下游接货。 行情展望：近期新增部分装置检修，带动国内尿素产量继续下降，下周暂无企业装置计划停车， 3-5家停车企业装置可能恢复生产，考虑到短时的企业故障发生，预计产量增加的概率较大。近期 农业虽然处于刚需淡季，但苏皖局部农业储备或有小幅提升，商业储备需求或受价格制约有所放 缓。局部环保预警升级，本周复合肥开工略有下降，短期企业装置开工率或小幅波动，关注天气 及各地环保情况。近期受市场情绪带动，尿素工厂收单不断推进，工厂出货好转，同时局部受环 保预警影响，部分尿素装置减量生产，国内尿素企业库存继续下降，短期随着环保预警结束 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The MA2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2100 - 2190 in the short term [7]. - The port methanol market continued to be strong this week, while the inland market remained weak. Inland enterprises had high inventories due to poor sales, and price cuts to reduce inventory were the mainstream operation [8]. - Recently, the output loss from domestic methanol maintenance and production cuts was less than the output from restored production, leading to an overall increase in production. With increased market supply, port goods continued to flow into the inland, and downstream raw material inventories were at a high level, reducing procurement enthusiasm. Inland projects continued to operate stably, and inland enterprise inventories increased this week. In the short - term, with relatively abundant supply, the weak winter demand expectation was unfavorable for the upstream production end's shipping rhythm, and inventories were expected to increase overall. Port inventories increased significantly this week, mainly in Jiangsu. Next week, the arrival volume of foreign vessels will still be high, and port inventories are expected to continue to accumulate [8]. - The operating loads of MTO enterprises in East and Northwest China decreased slightly, and the operating rate of the domestic methanol - to - olefins industry continued to decline this week. In the short term, the operating rate is expected to decline slightly [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Week - on - Week Summary - **Strategy Suggestion**: The MA2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2100 - 2190 in the short term [7]. - **Market Review**: The port methanol market was strong, with prices in Jiangsu ranging from 2120 - 2200 yuan/ton and in Guangdong from 2090 - 2130 yuan/ton. The inland market was weak, with prices in Ordos North Line ranging from 1870 - 1900 yuan/ton and the downstream Dongying receiving price from 2160 - 2200 yuan/ton [8]. - **Market Outlook**: Domestic methanol production increased. Inland inventories increased, and port inventories were expected to continue to accumulate. The operating rate of the methanol - to - olefins industry was expected to decline slightly [8]. 3.2. Futures Market - **Price Trend**: The price of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract fluctuated and closed up this week, with a weekly increase of 0.61% [12]. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: As of December 26, the MA 5 - 9 spread was 14 [16]. - **Position Analysis**: No specific content provided other than the topic. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of December 26, there were 6748 Zhengzhou methanol warehouse receipts, a decrease of 41 from last week [24]. 3.3. Spot Market - **Domestic Spot Prices**: As of December 25, the mainstream price in East China's Taicang area was 2150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.5 yuan/ton from last week; the mainstream price in Northwest Inner Mongolia was 1865 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from last week. The price difference between East and Northwest China was 285 yuan/ton, an increase of 42.5 yuan/ton from last week [28]. - **Foreign Spot Prices**: As of December 24, the CFR price of methanol at the Chinese main port was 252 US dollars/ton, an increase of 1 US dollar/ton from last week. The price difference between Southeast Asia and the Chinese main port was 68 US dollars/ton, an increase of 1 US dollar/ton from last week [34]. - **Basis**: As of December 25, the basis of Zhengzhou methanol was - 12 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.5 yuan/ton from last week [37]. 3.4. Industrial Chain - **Upstream**: As of December 24, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with a calorific value of 5500 kcal was 695 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton from last week. The NYMEX natural gas closed at 4.25 US dollars/million British thermal units, an increase of 0.3 US dollars/million British thermal units from last week [42]. - **Industry**: As of December 25, China's methanol production was 2072175 tons, an increase of 16200 tons from last week, and the device capacity utilization rate was 91.24%, a month - on - month increase of 0.80%. As of December 24, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 40.40 million tons, an increase of 1.28 million tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 3.28%; the orders to be delivered by sample enterprises were 19.36 million tons, a decrease of 2.68 million tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 12.16%. The total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 141.25 million tons, an increase of 19.37 tons from the previous data. In November 2025, China's methanol imports were 141.76 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12.09%; from January to November 2025, the cumulative methanol imports were 1269.69 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.60%. As of December 25, the methanol import profit was - 6.34 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12.1 yuan/ton from last week [45][50][54]. - **Downstream**: As of December 25, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins devices was 88.68%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.44%. As of December 26, the domestic methanol - to - olefins on - paper profit was - 991 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton from last week [57][60]. 4. Option Market Analysis No relevant information provided.

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The freight futures price of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) rose slightly this week. Christmas stocking demand is conducive to the recovery of the futures price, but due to the failure of the announced price increase to materialize, leading shipping companies have successively lowered the prices of a new round of containers, causing the previous freight rate increases to be partially reversed. Although the overall market sentiment has improved, the boosting effect of the traditional peak season may be weaker than expected. Investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, shipping capacity and cargo volume data in a timely manner [6][7][38] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - The main contract price of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) futures rose slightly this week. The EC2512 contract's trading volume and open interest both declined. The EC2602 contract had a weekly increase of 6.03%, while far - month contracts had increases of 1 - 2% [10][12][14] 2. News Review and Analysis - Ukraine's President Zelensky announced the details of the 20 - point draft of the Russia - Ukraine "peace plan", with the key territorial issue remaining unresolved. The EU decided to extend economic sanctions against Russia for another 6 months. The U.S. Q3 real GDP had a significant annualized quarterly - on - quarterly increase of 4.3%. The central bank's monetary policy committee suggested integrating incremental and existing policies, and the EU extended sanctions against Russia [17] 3. Weekly Market Data - The basis and spread of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) futures contracts both shrank this week. The export container freight rate index rebounded slightly. Global container shipping capacity continued to grow, with a slight recovery in European - line capacity. The BDI and BPI declined, and the charter price of Panamax ships dropped. The spread between the offshore and on - shore RMB against the US dollar converged [23][26][30] 4. Market Outlook and Strategy - The freight futures price of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) rose slightly this week. The latest SCFIS European - line settlement freight rate index increased by 5.2% week - on - week. The SCFI rebounded for the second consecutive week. The manufacturing PMI in China showed a slight improvement in November, and terminal transportation demand recovered before Christmas. Only MSC and MSK have announced feasible spot quotes for January. The Red Sea resumption of navigation expectation has improved, and the euro - zone economy is expected to maintain its relative strength. However, the boosting effect of the peak season may be weaker than expected, and investors should focus on shipping companies' price - increase announcements [38][39]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - This week, the platinum and palladium markets showed a generally strong trend, with their prices gradually diverging. Platinum demonstrated greater resilience, while palladium repeatedly rose and then fell during the session, confirming the market's expectation of "strong platinum and weak palladium." - In the future, platinum may continue to be supported by the Fed's easing expectations, the continuation of the supply - demand structural deficit, and the expansion of medium - and long - term demand expectations in the hydrogen economy. Palladium's demand is expected to weaken due to over - concentration in the automotive catalyst field and the popularization of new energy vehicles, but the bullish sentiment driven by interest rate cut expectations may provide some support [7]. - The recent parabolic rise in platinum and palladium prices may increase the risk of a high - level decline, and short - term technical correction pressure should be guarded against. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Highlights - Platinum's price elasticity has significantly increased due to the shortage of physical inventory and cross - regional arbitrage trading. The London platinum lease rate has continued to rise, and palladium ETF holdings have increased, exacerbating the supply - demand contradiction. - The high domestic - foreign price difference has stimulated arbitrage motives, pushing up the spot price and amplifying the futures price elasticity. - Next week, the upper resistance level for London platinum spot is $2500 per ounce, and the lower support level is $2000 per ounce. For London palladium spot, the upper resistance level is $1800 per ounce, and the lower support level is $1500 per ounce [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - This week, the platinum and palladium markets on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange continued their strong upward trend, with their prices continuing to diverge. - As of December 26, 2025, the main 2606 contract of palladium on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was at 515.65 yuan per gram, up 7.38% for the week, and the main 2606 contract of platinum was at 705.30 yuan per gram, up 32.19% for the week [8][10]. - As of December 16, 2025, the net long positions of NYMEX platinum and palladium showed a large divergence. The net long position of NYMEX platinum was 28,564 contracts, a 12.82% increase from the previous period, while the net long position of NYMEX palladium was - 2340 contracts, a 36.05% decrease from the previous period [16]. - This week, the basis of NYMEX platinum and palladium main contracts weakened, and their inventories increased. As of December 24, 2025, NYMEX platinum inventory was 645,466.92 ounces, a 3.32% increase from the previous period, and NYMEX palladium inventory was 195,833.87 ounces, a 4.81% increase from the previous period [17][25]. - This week, the price ratio of NYMEX platinum to COMEX gold increased, and the rolling correlation coefficient between platinum and gold prices also increased. Recently, the positive correlation between platinum prices and NYMEX platinum inventory and the US dollar index has weakened marginally [26][30][34]. 3.3 Industry Supply and Demand - As of November 2025, the import and export volumes of platinum both decreased. - The demand for platinum in automobile exhaust catalysts has marginally weakened. The total global demand for platinum and palladium has shown a moderate downward trend, and the global supply of platinum and palladium has declined [38][43][53]. 3.4 Macroeconomic Data - This week, the US dollar index weakened, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield increased slightly [57].

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.12.26」 宏观市场周报 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 作者：廖宏斌 期货投资咨询证号：Z0020723 联系电话：4008-8787-66 1、本周小结及下周 配置建议 2、重要新闻及事件 3、本周国内外经济 数据 4、下周重要经济指 标及经济大事 「本周小结及下周配置建议」 | 股票 | 债券 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪深 300 +1.95% | 10 年国债到期收益率+0.07%/本周变动+0.13BP | | | 沪深 300 股指期货 +2.51% | 主力 10 年期国债期货 +0.20% | | | 本周点评：A股主要指数本周集体上涨，除上证指数外 | 本周点评：本周资金面延续宽松，隔夜加权利率持续走 | | | 涨幅均超2%。四期指亦集体上涨，中小盘股强于大盘 | 低，支撑短债下行，并引导长端利率同步下行。央行四 | | | 蓝筹股。本周，市场处于宏观数据真空期，在市场缺乏 | 季度货币政策例会纪要显示，货币政策将延续适度宽松， | | | 数据指引的情况下，外部环境对A股的影响有所放大。 | 但受银行净息差处于低位、利 ...