交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2026年1月30日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，据隆众统计，2025年12月PVC产量为213.7356万吨，环比增加2.79%；本周样本企业产 能利用率为78.74%，环比减少0.01个百分点；电石法企业产量34.465万吨，环比增加0.03%,乙烯法 企业产量13.743万吨，环比减少3.86%；本周供给压力有所减少；下周预计检修有所减少，预计排 产少量增加。 利多：供应复产，电石，乙烯成本支撑；出口利好。 利空：总体供应压力反弹；库存持续高位，消耗缓慢；内外需疲弱。 主要逻辑：供应总体压力强势，国内需求复苏不畅。 需求端来看，下游整体开工率为44.86%，环比增加.950个百分点，高于 ...

2026-01-30原油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 原油2603： 1.基本面：美国国防部长赫格塞斯周四表示，美国军方将做好准备，执行特朗普总统对伊朗做出的任 何决定，以确保德黑兰不会寻求发展核武器能力；克里姆林宫表示，俄罗斯已重申邀请乌克兰总统泽 连斯基前往莫斯科举行和平会谈。目前，在美国主导下结束这场已持续近四年的乌克兰战争的努力正 在加速；特朗普称与参议院民主党就避免政府关门达成临时协议，为国土安全部提供两周资金，以便 继续谈判；中性 2.基差：1月29日，阿曼原油现货价为66.67美元/桶，卡塔尔海洋原油现货价为66.15美元/桶，基差 20.23元/桶，现货升水 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2026-01-30甲醇早报 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 检修状况 甲醇2605： 1、基本面：供需基本面弱势对后期甲醇仍有一定压制，预计本周国内甲醇延续弱势。内地方面，甲醇装置检修量有限， 叠加春节前上游工厂出货诉求明确，另外运力紧张致使运费易涨难跌，多重因素之下，产区甲醇价格或持续承压。销区 市场虽受运费上行带动，到货成本有所抬升，对价格底部形成支撑，但传统下游需求表现平淡，且山东恒通烯烃装置传 出检修计划，进一步弱化需求端支撑，市场利空氛围浓厚，局部行情不排除走跌可能。同时考虑到当前产销区价格已处 于绝对底部空间，成本端的支撑显现，整体跌幅有限。港口方面，一季度海外供应减少和港口库存逐步去库对市场形成 底部支撑，变量因素在于下游开工下降需求减少的程度及中东装置供应减量持续的时间及恢复预期，预计本周港口市场 震荡为主，需求减少 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - On January 29, the A-share market continued its narrow consolidation. Liquor stocks saw a wave of limit - up in the afternoon, and gold stocks remained strong. The Shanghai Composite Index closed up 0.16% at 4,157.98 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.3%, the ChiNext Index fell 0.57%, the North - bound 50 Index fell 1.69%, the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index fell 3.03%, the Wind All - A Index fell 0.23%, the Wind A500 Index rose 0.5%, and the CSI A500 Index rose 0.3%. The total A - share trading volume for the day was 3.26 trillion yuan, compared with 2.99 trillion yuan the previous day [4] 3. Summary by Related Contents 3.1 Market Quotes Review - **Index Closing Price and Changes** - The closing price of the Shanghai 50 Index was 2,948.88, with an increase of 100.71 and a daily increase of 1.65%. The trading volume was 31.109135 billion, and the trading value was 100.71 billion yuan - The closing price of the CSI 300 Index was 4,753.8697, with an increase of 0.76. The trading volume was 41.551 billion, and the trading value was 917.966 billion yuan - The closing price of the CSI 1000 Index was 8,332.2067, with a decrease of 0.80%. The trading volume was 401.99 billion, and the trading value was 677.736 billion yuan [3] - **China Financial Futures Exchange Stock Index Options Trading Situation** - **Shanghai 50 Index Options**: The trading volume of call options was 6.93 million contracts, and the trading volume of put options was 5.06 million contracts. The open interest of call options was 7.97 million contracts, and the open interest of put options was 4.87 million contracts. The trading volume PCR was 0.73, and the open interest PCR was 0.61 - **CSI 300 Index Options**: The trading volume of call options was 8.23 million contracts, and the trading volume of put options was 9.11 million contracts. The open interest of call options was 20.85 million contracts, and the open interest of put options was 12.63 million contracts. The trading volume PCR was 1.11, and the open interest PCR was 0.61 - **CSI 1000 Index Options**: The trading volume of call options was 33.22 million contracts, and the trading volume of put options was 32.21 million contracts. The open interest of call options was 16.19 million contracts, and the open interest of put options was 16.02 million contracts. The trading volume PCR was 0.97, and the open interest PCR was 0.99 [3] 3.2 Volatility Analysis - **Shanghai 50 Volatility Analysis** - The historical volatility cone shows the maximum, minimum, 10% quantile, 30% quantile, 60% quantile, 90% quantile values, as well as the current values of HV5, HV20, and HV60 - The volatility smile curve shows the implied volatility of the next - month at - the - money options of the Shanghai 50 Index [3] - **CSI 300 Volatility Analysis** - The historical volatility cone presents the maximum, minimum, 10% quantile, 30% quantile, 60% quantile, 90% quantile values, along with the current values of HV5, HV20, and HV60 - The volatility smile curve shows the implied volatility of the next - month at - the - money options of the CSI 300 Index [3] - **CSI 1000 Volatility Analysis** - The historical volatility cone displays the maximum, minimum, 10% quantile, 30% quantile, 60% quantile, 90% quantile values, together with the current values of HV5, HV20, and HV60 - The volatility smile curve shows the implied volatility of the next - month at - the - money options of the CSI 1000 Index [3]

1月30日，国内期市能化板块大面积飘绿。其中，PVC期货盘面表现偏强，截至发稿主力合约大幅上涨 3.62%，报5073.00元/吨。 供应方面，华联期货指出，当前供应压力总体仍偏高，不过2026年国内仅有浙江嘉化30万吨新增产能， 国外原计划的阿联酋项目计划推迟，供应扩张进入尾声。 库存方面，广州期货介绍，截至1月29日，样本总库存来看，华东及华南原样本仓库总库存54.36万吨， 较上一期增加1.78%，同比增加22.88%。华东及华南扩充后样本仓库总库存106.82万吨，较上一期增加 1.70%，同比增加33.89%。 后市来看，光大期货表示，PVC整体表现为弱现实强预期结构，但是出口在4月1日之后不再退税，长期 会有上行压力，而短期反而会有支撑，预计PVC价格维持底部震荡。 需求方面，瑞达期货（002961）分析称，终端地产、基建正处低温淡季，春节临近下游企业陆续休假停 工，下游节前促销带来的需求难以持续。短期出口预期仍较好，但对国内供需矛盾缓解有限，库存预计 维持高位上升趋势。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the main 03 contract of asphalt will follow the strong oscillation. In February - March, as infrastructure projects gradually resume work and demand picks up, against the background of low asphalt inventory, low - cost raw material inventory will be gradually digested, and the transaction price of new raw materials with a premium will rise. The market may experience a resonance of tight supply and warming demand, and the 06 contract is expected to be bullish on dips. The recommended strategy is to go long on dips in the unilateral market, and to wait and see on arbitrage and options [6][40]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Introduction and Market Overview - **Market Review**: In January, asphalt prices fluctuated with crude oil costs. There were also independent contradictions such as the shortage of Venezuelan raw materials and rising costs. On January 3, the situation in Venezuela developed into a conflict. On the 5th, the asphalt futures opened higher and then declined. In mid - January, the Iran conflict escalated, driving up crude oil costs, and asphalt prices oscillated at a high level. The shortage of raw materials was priced in, and the overall cost of raw material premiums increased. In the domestic market, low refinery loads and inventories supported spot prices [5][10]. - **Market Outlook**: Crude oil is in a wide - range oscillation. The short - term main 03 contract of asphalt will follow the strong oscillation. In February - March, demand will pick up, and the 06 contract is expected to be bullish on dips [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Unilateral: Oscillate strongly, go long on dips and not chase the rise; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [7][40]. 3.2 Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Market Review - In January, asphalt prices fluctuated with crude oil costs and had independent contradictions. In the domestic market, low refinery loads and inventories supported spot prices. At the beginning of the year, it was the seasonal off - season for demand. In the north, demand was basically stagnant due to low temperatures, while in the south, there was some rush - work demand, which was gradually weakening. It was expected that domestic refineries' low - cost raw material inventory could last for 1 - 2 months, and the raw material premium was rising [10]. 3.2.2 Supply Overview - In 2026, the estimated asphalt production in January - February was about 4.19 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 170,000 tons (+4%). Different refineries had different production changes. The planned asphalt production of local refineries in February was about 1.16 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 4% and a year - on - year increase of 20%. Although the Spring Festival and raw material supply would limit production, some refineries' production resumption and stable raw material supply would support the overall production [14]. - In 2025, the total domestic asphalt production was 28.468 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.992 million tons (+12%). The total import was 3.928 million tons, an increase of 465,000 tons (+13.4%) compared with 2024 [15][18]. 3.2.3 Demand Overview - In January 2026, domestic asphalt demand was in the seasonal off - season, with a slight month - on - month decline and obvious regional differentiation. In the south, rush - work demand supported the market, while in the north, demand was mainly for winter storage. In February, demand would further decline. Refinery shipments were at a medium level, and terminal demand decreased. The operating rates of road modified asphalt and the utilization rates of relevant capacities also declined [26][27][28]. 3.2.4 Inventory and Valuation - In January 2026, the total asphalt inventory was at an extremely low level compared with the same period. The total inventory decreased by 60,000 tons (-4%) month - on - month to about 1.28 million tons and decreased by 720,000 tons (-36%) year - on - year. Social inventory gradually accumulated, and refinery inventory remained low. The cost increased due to geopolitical conflicts, the raw material premium rose, and the asphalt processing profit decreased significantly. The basis also changed in different regions [31][33]. 3.3 Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - **Raw Materials**: Geopolitical turmoil continued, and crude oil costs oscillated widely. The expectation of tight asphalt raw material supply was basically priced in, and the near - term cost premium increased. There was no short - term concern about supply shortages [40]. - **Supply - Demand Outlook**: The short - term main 03 contract of asphalt will follow the strong oscillation, and the 06 contract is expected to be bullish on dips due to the possible resonance of tight supply and warming demand [40]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Unilateral: Oscillate strongly, go long on dips and not chase the rise; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [40].

今天市场有回调，wind全A上午一度跌超2.5%，是去年11月中旬以来，最近2个半月，跌幅最大的一天了。 昨晚，咱们在《 白酒今天集体涨停的原因是啥？ 》里，在第五点，也提到了短期反转的可能性： " 从根本上来说，要看到， 市场可能有明确的避险，或者说再平衡需求 ... 2025 年以来，在美元降息 + 弱美元导向的趋势下，不管是黄金，还是非美市场的股票，尤其是新兴市场，都在快速走强 ... 问题来了，这一延续了大半年的趋势， 有无短期反转的可能性？ 一个理性的投资者，如果看到最近 2 个月如此夸张，比此前攀登了 101 大厦的 Alex Honnold 爬过的 犹他州酋长岩，还要陡峭的沪银期货的走势 ，会不会夹杂着一丝担忧？ 适度卖出一些小登，买入一些老登， 做一些资产的再平衡 ，保持均衡配置，有没有道理呢？ 如果我是险资的投资经理的话，我会选择这么做的 ......" 上面提到的Alex，就是大家短视频应该都刷到过的，这周无保护徒手攀登台北101大厦的攀岩大神，而他真正的封神之战，是无保护徒手攀登酋 长岩，下图，大概就是这种90度的悬崖，是不是和沪银期货走势挺像？ 对了，Alex正式攀登酋长岩之前，用绳索 ...

瑞达期货（002961）指出，目前港口库存持续去化，外盘价格稳定，原木下游整体需求边际恢复，基本 面矛盾不大，后续注意原木进口情况，现货有支撑。LG2603合约建议关注下方775附近支撑。 1月30日，国内期市能化板块多数飘绿。其中，原木期货主力合约开盘报789.0元/立方米，今日盘中高 位震荡运行；截至发稿，原木主力最高触及799.5元，下方探低788.0元，涨幅达1.66%附近。 目前来看，原木行情呈现震荡上行走势，盘面表现偏强。对于原木后市行情将如何运行，相关机构观点 汇总如下： 西南期货表示，后续供给方面需关注新西兰天气对新西兰发运的延迟影响，需求方面则受放假影响持续 收缩，基本面整体基调偏宽松持平。但成本端方面受地缘政治事件影响，原油、燃料油大幅上行，与海 上运费关联性较强，原木运费成本支撑强化。 格林大华期货分析称，供需矛盾突出，需求疲软压制价格上行，而低库存限制下跌空间，市场情绪以谨 慎观望为主导。低库存对价格形成一定支撑，国内外价格倒挂及盘面低于仓单成本的格局下，大幅下行 空间有限，但现货端弱现实制约反弹驱动，预计主力合约维持低位震荡，操作上建议区间交易并关注资 金动向。 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report presents the market liquidity situation on January 29, 2026, detailing the trading volume, holding amount, and trading - holding ratio of various sectors, including stock index, treasury bond, basic metal, precious metal, energy - chemical, agricultural product, and black building materials sectors, along with their changes compared to the previous trading day. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Liquidity Overview - On January 29, 2026, the stock index sector had a trading volume of 1071.417 billion yuan, a +22.39% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 1865.860 billion yuan, a +3.93% change; the trading - holding ratio was 57.34% [1]. - The treasury bond sector had a trading volume of 346.135 billion yuan, a +20.47% change; the holding amount was 876.678 billion yuan, a +2.26% change; the trading - holding ratio was 39.23% [1]. - The basic metal sector had a trading volume of 1384.210 billion yuan, a +14.59% change; the holding amount was 839.499 billion yuan, a +3.71% change; the trading - holding ratio was 162.85% [1]. - The precious metal sector had a trading volume of 1640.563 billion yuan, a - 7.46% change; the holding amount was 743.180 billion yuan, a +1.35% change; the trading - holding ratio was 238.08% [1]. - The energy - chemical sector had a trading volume of 669.654 billion yuan, a +4.95% change; the holding amount was 532.511 billion yuan, a +1.60% change; the trading - holding ratio was 111.36% [1]. - The agricultural product sector had a trading volume of 313.797 billion yuan, a +4.17% change; the holding amount was 653.433 billion yuan, a +0.73% change; the trading - holding ratio was 44.67% [1]. - The black building materials sector had a trading volume of 199.126 billion yuan, a +37.04% change; the holding amount was 316.419 billion yuan, a +0.23% change; the trading - holding ratio was 61.99% [2]. 3.2 Graphs and Data - There are multiple graphs showing various data such as the trading - holding ratio, trading volume change rate, holding volume, holding amount, and price change rate of each sector and its varieties, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [5][6]

贵金属日报 | 2026-01-30 停摆危机再现 贵金属走出"过山车"行情 市场分析 贵金属市场再度上演"过山车"行情。1月29日，黄金、白银在亚市、欧市交易时段强势走高，现货黄金一度逼近5600 美元/盎司关口，现货白银则连续突破117、118、119、120和121美元/盎司五道关口。纽约市场交易时段金银价格 急转直下，现货黄金直线跳水跌近6%失守5100美元/盎司关口，现货白银则跌超8%失守107美元/盎司，但随后跌幅 双双收窄。美国方面，美国国会参议院在程序性投票中未能推进已获众议院通过的政府拨款法案，美国联邦政府 再次面临部分"停摆"的危机。美国数个联邦部门的运转资金将于1月30日耗尽。地缘方面，伊朗已于1月29日通过 高频无线电向过往船只发布通告，宣布将于2月1日至2日在霍尔木兹海峡举行军事演习，演习内容包括实弹射击。 整体看贵金属避险溢价支撑仍在。 期货行情与成交量： 2026-01-29，沪金主力合约开于1189.60元/克，收于1249.12元/克，较前一交易日收盘变动5.30%。当日成交量为41087 手，持仓量为129725手。昨日夜盘沪金主力合约开于1246.00元/克，收于1202 ...