Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that China Hongqiao's (01378) profit forecast for 2025 has been raised, and projections for 2026 and 2027 now include profits from the Simandou iron ore joint venture project, which is expected to ship by the end of 2025 with a full production cycle of approximately two years [1] - The target price for China Hongqiao has been increased from HKD 17.7 to HKD 26.9, while maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] - In the first half of the year, China Hongqiao's net profit increased by 35% year-on-year to RMB 12.4 billion, attributed to its vertically integrated model that stabilizes production costs [1] Group 2 - The average selling price increase led to a rise in unit gross margins for aluminum and alumina, reaching RMB 225 and RMB 185 per ton respectively [1] - A significant highlight of the performance is the announcement of a new share buyback plan of at least HKD 3 billion, along with a commitment to a dividend payout ratio of no less than 60% for the year, reflecting management's confidence in the company's performance [1]

国家统计局数据显示，2025年7月中国氧化铝产量756.5万吨，同比增长4.6%；1-7月累计产量5267.2万 吨，同比增长8.5%。 7月电解铝产量377.9万吨，同比增长0.6%；1-7月累计产量2637.7万吨，同比增长2.8%。 7月铝合金产量153.6万吨，同比增长10.7%；1-7月累计产量1062.8吨，同比增长14.8%。 7月铝材产量548.4万吨，同比下降1.6%；1-7月累计产量3847.0万吨，同比增长0.8%。 资讯编辑：冯诗奇 021-26093556 资讯监督：乐卫扬 021-26093827 资讯投诉：陈跃进 021-26093100 ...

2025年上半年氧化铝业务营收同比增长28%，毛利润同比增长44%。氧化铝平均销售价格为每吨3244元 人民币，同比增长10%。 花旗在报告中表示，中国宏桥计划回购不低于30亿港元的公司股份，表明公司对其发展前景和长期投资 价值充满信心。 按业务划分，2025年上半年铝业务营收同比增长5%，毛利润同比增长9%。铝平均销售价格为每吨 18178元人民币，同比增长3%。 智通财经APP获悉，花旗发布研报，维持对中国宏桥(01378)的"买入"评级，目标价为25.20港元，并继 续列为行业首选股。 数据显示，中国宏桥2025年上半年净利润为124亿元人民币，同比增长35%，符合预期。2025 年上半 年，该公司总营收同比增长10%;营业利润为181亿元人民币，同比增长21%。 ...

产能方面，3月18日，中国宏桥关停滨州宏诺72.3万吨原铝生产线项目C系列24.1万吨产能，置换启动宏 泰E 系列12.147万吨、D系列11.906万吨产能。7月1日，公司永久退出44.8万吨产能，置换启动公司控股 子公司云南宏泰D系列6.975 万吨产能、云南宏合B系列16.07万吨产能。 另外，中国宏桥对云南宏泰的持股比例提升至90.07%，云南宏泰拥有203万吨电解铝产能，中国宏桥将 受益股权比例的提升，电解铝权益产能增长45.7万吨。基于对公司未来前景及长远投资价值的坚定信 心，并考虑到公司的财务状况及营运表现，中国宏桥拟进行股份回购，计划购回总金额不低于30亿港 元。国盛证券认为，当前时点下产能兑现及降本增效为竞争关键，公司有望通过海外拓展与上下游深度 赋能实现跨越式增长。 国盛证券指出，从"量"来看，25H1中国宏桥电解铝销量290.6万吨，同比增长2.4%；氧化铝销量636.8万 吨，同比增长15.6%；铝加工产品销量39.2万吨，同比增长3.5%。从"价"来看，2025年上半年公司电解 铝售价（不含税）为1.79万元/吨，同比增长2.7%；氧化铝售价（不含税）为3243 元/吨，同比增长 1 ...

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup maintains a "Buy" rating on China Hongqiao (01378) with a target price of HKD 25.20, continuing to list it as an industry preferred stock [1] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, China Hongqiao reported a net profit of RMB 12.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 35%, meeting expectations [1] - Total revenue for the same period grew by 10% year-on-year, while operating profit reached RMB 18.1 billion, up 21% [1] Business Segmentation - Aluminum business revenue increased by 5% year-on-year, with gross profit rising by 9%. The average selling price of aluminum was RMB 18,178 per ton, reflecting a 3% year-on-year increase [1] - Alumina business revenue saw a significant year-on-year growth of 28%, with gross profit up 44%. The average selling price of alumina was RMB 3,244 per ton, marking a 10% year-on-year increase [1] Share Buyback - The company plans to repurchase shares worth no less than HKD 3 billion, indicating strong confidence in its development prospects and long-term investment value [1]

国盛证券发布研报称，2025年上半年中国宏桥(01378)业绩表现亮眼实现，营收810.4亿元，同比增长 10.1%；归母净利123.6亿元，同比增长35%。公司业绩大幅增长主要受铝产品"量价齐升"及电价同比大 幅下降所带来的成本下降所致。考虑到当前时点下产能兑现及降本增效为竞争关键，公司有望通过海外 拓展与上下游深度赋能实现跨越式增长，国盛证券维持中国宏桥"买入"评级。 国盛证券指出，从"量"来看，25H1中国宏桥电解铝销量290.6万吨，同比增长2.4%；氧化铝销量636.8万 吨，同比增长15.6%；铝加工产品销量39.2万吨，同比增长3.5%。从"价"来看，2025年上半年公司电解 铝售价(不含税)为1.79万元/吨，同比增长2.7%；氧化铝售价(不含税)为3243元/吨，同比增长10.3%；铝 加工产品售价(不含税)2.06万元/吨，同比增长2.9%。成本方面，25H1山东自备电发电成本(含税)为0.33 元/度，同比减少31%，环比减少21%。 另外，中国宏桥对云南宏泰的持股比例提升至90.07%，云南宏泰拥有203万吨电解铝产能，中国宏桥将 受益股权比例的提升，电解铝权益产能增长45.7万吨。基 ...

Core Viewpoint - China Hongqiao Group Limited reported record-high revenue and profit for the first half of 2025, driven by increased sales prices and volumes of aluminum products and alumina, despite challenges in the real estate sector [2][3]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, China Hongqiao achieved revenue of approximately 81.039 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.10%, marking the highest performance since its listing [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was approximately 12.361 billion yuan, up 35.02% year-on-year, with basic earnings per share of 1.31 yuan, reflecting a 36.02% increase [2] Product Sales and Pricing - The sales volume of aluminum alloy products reached approximately 2.906 million tons, a 2.40% increase year-on-year, with an average selling price rising by 2.70% to about 17,853 yuan per ton [3] - Alumina product sales were approximately 6.368 million tons, up 15.60% year-on-year, with an average selling price increasing by 10.30% to 3,243 yuan per ton [3] - Sales of aluminum alloy processing products were about 392,000 tons, a 3.50% increase year-on-year, with an average selling price rising by 2.9% to 20,615 yuan per ton [3] Industry Demand - China's aluminum consumption continued to grow in the first half of 2025, driven by sectors such as power grids, photovoltaics, and new energy vehicles, despite weakness in the real estate market [3] Raw Material Cost Management - The company has a 45-day coal reserve to mitigate the impact of short-term coal price fluctuations, and it has been increasing the proportion of green electricity in its energy mix [4] - The self-supply rate of electricity from the company's own power plants was approximately 45% in the first half of 2025, with ongoing collaborations with major power generation institutions to enhance the use of renewable energy [4][5] Green Energy Strategy - China Hongqiao is advancing its green energy strategy, focusing on a diversified and complementary new power supply model to ensure a continuous increase in the proportion of clean energy [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [10] - Alumina: Cautiously bearish [10] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [10] Core Viewpoints - The supply of electrolytic aluminum has a slight increase in capacity, with limited impact. Consumption is in the seasonal off - peak but shows signs of improvement, and the aluminum price correction space is limited. The long - term supply is restricted, and the consumption peak season can be expected [6]. - The bidding price of alumina in Xinjiang has decreased week - on - week. The risk of cornering the market has decreased, and the supply is becoming more abundant. The price of bauxite is difficult to rise, and the supply of alumina will continue to show a pattern of tightness in the south and looseness in the north [7][8]. - The price spread of AD2511 - AL2511 contracts and the smelting profit of aluminum alloy enterprises show a seasonal repair trend. The spread of the 11 - contract is relatively stable, and arbitrage can still be concerned [9]. Summary by Categories Aluminum Market Data - **Spot prices**: On August 18, 2025, the price of East China A00 aluminum was 20,550 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the price of Central China A00 aluminum was 20,440 yuan/ton; the price of Foshan A00 aluminum was 20,500 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1]. - **Futures prices**: The main contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 20,695 yuan/ton and closed at 20,600 yuan/ton on August 18, 2025, down 140 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 109,366 lots, and the open interest was 172,995 lots [2]. - **Inventory**: As of August 18, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 607,000 tons, with a change of 1.9 tons from the previous period; the warrant inventory was 65,492 tons, with a change of 301 tons from the previous trading day; the LME aluminum inventory was 479,525 tons, down 25 tons from the previous trading day [2]. Alumina Market Data - **Spot prices**: On August 18, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 3,230 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 3,215 yuan/ton, in Henan was 3,230 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,325 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 3,340 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 370 US dollars/ton [2]. - **Futures prices**: The main contract of alumina opened at 3,212 yuan/ton and closed at 3,171 yuan/ton on August 18, 2025, down 36 yuan/ton or 1.12% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 332,334 lots, and the open interest was 177,575 lots [2]. - **Bidding price**: The weekly bidding price of Xinjiang aluminum plants decreased by about 10 yuan/ton, and the winning bid - delivered price was 3,480 - 3,490 yuan/ton [7]. Aluminum Alloy Market Data - **Prices**: On August 18, 2025, the purchase price of Baotai civil raw aluminum was 15,500 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical raw aluminum was 15,600 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 19,900 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day [3]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 49,400 tons, and the in - plant inventory was 60,600 tons [4]. - **Cost and profit**: The theoretical total cost was 20,112 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was - 112 yuan/ton [5]. Market Analysis - **Electrolytic aluminum**: The supply increase has limited impact, and consumption is in the off - peak but shows signs of turning to the peak season. The aluminum price correction space is limited, and the long - term supply is restricted [6]. - **Alumina**: The bidding price has decreased, the risk of cornering the market has decreased, the bauxite price is difficult to rise, and the supply pattern of tight south and loose north will continue [7][8]. - **Aluminum alloy**: The price spread and smelting profit show a seasonal repair trend, and the 11 - contract spread is stable for arbitrage [9]. Strategies - **Unilateral**: Be cautiously bullish on aluminum, cautiously bearish on alumina, and cautiously bullish on aluminum alloy [10]. - **Arbitrage**: Consider positive spreads in Shanghai aluminum and long AD11 short AL11 [10].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that China Hongqiao's 2025 interim results show strong profit growth, supported by improved aluminum business performance and a commitment to shareholder returns through dividends and stock buybacks [1][2] Group 2 - China Hongqiao reported a net profit of approximately 12.4 billion RMB for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 35%, which aligns with previous guidance [1] - The increase in profit is attributed to several factors: a rise in aluminum business profits, a decrease in production costs due to lower electricity prices, and an increase in sales volumes of aluminum and alumina, which grew by 2.4% and 15.6% respectively [1] - The gross profit from the alumina business increased by 44% year-on-year, with the gross margin rising by 1.5 percentage points to 25.7% [1] Group 3 - Morgan Stanley noted that China Hongqiao's balance sheet is improving, with the net debt ratio decreasing to 23% in the first half of 2025 from 26% in the first half of 2024 [1] - The total financing cost decreased by 18% year-on-year to 1.3 billion RMB due to optimized debt structure and lower interest rates [1] Group 4 - The company has announced a new stock buyback plan with a total amount of no less than 3 billion HKD, and it guarantees that the dividend payout for the entire year will not be lower than the level of 2024, which was approximately 63% [2] - Despite a slowdown in consumer demand, aluminum prices are expected to remain stable due to low inventory levels, and the combination of high aluminum prices and lower costs for bauxite and electricity will help maintain profit resilience into the second half of 2025 [2]

Core Insights - The concept of "green mountains and clear waters are as valuable as mountains of gold and silver" has been proposed for 20 years, and the "dual carbon" goals have been set for 5 years, highlighting the importance of green finance in promoting high-quality economic development [1] - Carbon finance is emerging as a crucial tool for banks to implement the "dual carbon" goals, with commercial banks gradually building climate-adaptive financial service systems to assist high-carbon industries in reducing emissions [1] Group 1: Financial Support for High-Carbon Industries - Postal Savings Bank provided a 30 million yuan loan to Chizhou Conch Cement Co., Ltd. to facilitate the green upgrade of the cement industry [2] - Industrial Bank issued a 200 million yuan loan to an aluminum company in Shandong, helping to lower financing costs and incentivize self-reduction of carbon emissions [2] - The existing green finance system does not fully meet the financing needs of high-carbon industries like steel, cement, and chemicals, which require a gradual reduction in carbon emissions [2] Group 2: Innovative Financial Tools and Services - Industrial Bank's Huizhou branch issued over 8 billion yuan in credit support for a leading petrochemical group's core project, effectively reducing financing costs by 1.5% [3] - Shanghai Bank provided a 40 million yuan loan to Juneyao Airlines, linking the loan interest rate to the airline's carbon emission reduction performance [3] Group 3: Carbon Accounts and Financial Services - Carbon accounts are becoming essential for banks to provide financial services based on carbon emission data, helping companies manage their carbon footprint [4] - Banks like Industrial Bank and China Everbright Bank have initiated personal carbon credit and corporate carbon account services since 2010, enhancing green financial services [4] Group 4: Development of Carbon Financial Market - The reopening of the voluntary greenhouse gas emission reduction trading market (CCER) presents significant opportunities for the carbon financial market [6] - Several banks have launched innovative products linked to CCER, increasing liquidity in the carbon market and providing low-cost financing options for companies [6] - Industrial Bank has pioneered several market-leading carbon financial products, including the first CHUEE product and carbon-neutral bonds [6] Group 5: Future Directions for Carbon Finance - Financial institutions need to establish mature carbon finance operational models, focusing on strategic development and external collaborations with various stakeholders [7] - Banks should enhance their research on carbon reduction and trading policies and consider forming dedicated carbon finance departments [7]