首席点评： 原油反弹，黄金回落 特朗普称或将"大幅降低"对华关税，中国外交部：打，奉陪到底；谈，大门敞开。中国外交部发言人郭 嘉昆强调，如果美方真的想通过对话谈判解决问题，就应该停止威胁讹诈，在平等、尊重、互惠的基础 上同中方对话。一边说要同中方达成协议，一边不断搞极限施压，这不是同中方打交道的正确方式，也 是行不通的。美国 4 月 Markit 综合 PMI 超预期下降创 16 个月新低，信心挫、价格涨，制造业 PMI 不 降反升好于预期。数据表明， 4 月美国商业活动增长降至 16 个月低点，对未来一年商业前景的预期也 下降至自疫情以来最低之一；商品和服务的销售价格上涨幅度为一年多来最大，尤其是制造品价格大幅 上涨，与关税有关。就业指数低迷。 重点品种：原油、贵金属、橡胶 原油 ： SC 夜盘回落 2.25% 。有消息援引哈萨克新任命的能源部长的话说，在决定石油产量水平时， 哈萨克斯坦将优先考虑国家利益，而非欧佩克及其减产同盟国的利益。他还表示，该国未能减少三大产 油项目的石油产量，因为这些项目为海外巨头控制。路透社援引三位熟悉欧佩克及其减产同盟国会谈的 消息人士的话说，一些成员国将建议该集团在 6 月份 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Crude Oil Daily Report [1] - Date: April 24, 2025 [2] Market Review and Operation Suggestions - WTI opened at $62.73, closed at $63.54, with a high of $64.36, a low of $62.72, a daily increase of 1.81%, and a trading volume of 27.82 million lots [6] - Brent opened at $65.8, closed at $66.85, with a high of $67.08, a low of $65.58, a daily increase of 2.37%, and a trading volume of 30.55 million lots [6] - SC opened at 495 yuan/barrel, closed at 503.8 yuan/barrel, with a high of 506 yuan/barrel, a low of 492.4 yuan/barrel, a daily increase of 3.34%, and a trading volume of 16.16 million lots [6] - API data showed that as of the week ending April 18, U.S. crude oil inventories declined more than expected, and overnight oil prices continued to rebound [6] - OPEC+ updated its compensation production cut plan, reducing the average daily production by 72,000 barrels after May. After the update, the new supply in May decreased to 33,000 barrels per day, providing some support to the supply side [7] - The U.S. imposed stricter sanctions on buyers of Iranian and Venezuelan crude oil, which may have a short - term deterrent effect on the market [7] - Three major institutions downgraded their global crude oil demand forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to varying degrees. Although supply was also adjusted downward due to pessimistic oil price expectations, the overall supply surplus increased [7] - In the context of the trade war, the market's expectation for crude oil demand is pessimistic. Oil prices have limited room for a trend - upward movement and are highly susceptible to significant fluctuations from news. Considering recent bullish factors, investors can consider buying call options and setting timely profit - taking targets. SC is relatively stronger due to sanctions [7] Industry News - The U.S. Treasury Department imposed sanctions on Iranian natural gas and shipping companies [8] - Russian President Putin will discuss OPEC+ issues with the Sultan of Oman [8] - According to a statement from the Iranian Foreign Ministry on the 22nd, the technical talks within the framework of the indirect Iran - U.S. talks originally scheduled for the 23rd were postponed to the 26th, and the heads of the two delegations will attend [8] Data Overview - The report includes data on global high - frequency crude oil inventories, WTI and Brent fund positions, spot prices of WTI, Dtd Brent, and Oman, U.S. crude oil production growth rate, and EIA crude oil inventories [10][12][13]

在日线图上，从 4 月 22 日的流星和每日 RSI 上的多次看跌背离可以看出，从 2583 美元开始的五浪大周期可能已经完成。从技术形态来看，黄金已跌破自 2,900美元上涨以来的23.6%回调位，并短暂下探至3,315美元一线。若进一步下破3,289美元的38.2%回调位，可能触发更多的技术性抛压。日线图上的震荡指 标依旧处于正区间，暗示上行趋势未被彻底破坏。若重回3,400美元上方并突破3,425美元阻力，黄金有望重新挑战3,500美元关口。若3,280美元支撑不破，黄 金或将进入整理蓄势阶段，为新一轮上攻打下基础！黄金短线操作建议： 多单策略：回落至3285-3290附近未跌破可尝试多单，止损3277，目标3325-3330； 空单策略：反弹至3345-3348附近做空，止损3354，目标3310-3305；破位提损下看； 黄金最新行情趋势分析： 周三（4月23日）黄金价格自3,500美元创纪录高点回调，连续两日吸引部分卖盘。美国总统特朗普缓和对美联储主席的言辞，并释放出贸易紧张关系可能缓 和的信号，削弱了市场对避险资产的需求。但由于美联储可能重启降息周期以及市场对美国经济的不信任，黄金下方仍存在坚实 ...

前言：富格林身为亚洲500强优质名企品牌，始终专注运用15年丰富经验为广大投资者曝光金市进场良 机，以优质客户服务严厉打击各式虚假套路乱象。周三(4月23日)亚市盘初，金融市场突然出现剧烈波 动。特朗普表示，无意解雇美联储主席鲍威尔，受此影响美元短线飙升，现货黄金出现惊人暴跌。投资 者可在线咨询富格林合理规避虚假套路风险，精准专家团队提供即时行情指引，高效落实把握曝光的金 市趋势盈利契机。 富格林身为亚洲500强优质名企品牌，始终专注运用15年丰富经验为广大投资者曝光金市进场良机，以 优质客户服务严厉打击各式虚假套路乱象。周三（4月23日）亚市早盘，现货黄金低开近40美元，并一 度触及3313.51美元/盎司，较周二触及的历史高点3500关口下跌近200美元，因美财长暗示国际贸易紧 张局势将缓和，这激发了股市乐观情绪并提振美元反弹至近一周高位。投资者可在线咨询富格林合理规 避虚假套路风险，精准专家团队提供即时行情指引，高效落实把握曝光的金市趋势盈利契机。 富格林据讯，由于全球贸易紧张局势缓和提振了风险情绪以及美元走强，周二现货黄金冲高回落，盘中 历史性地触及3500美元关口后急坠逾130美元，最终收跌1.24 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The report predicts that the prices of domestic and international crude oil futures on Wednesday, April 23, 2025, may maintain a pattern of fluctuating slightly upward. The short - term view of crude oil 2506 is oscillating, the medium - term view is oscillating weakly, and the intraday view is oscillating strongly, with an overall reference view of strong operation [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog Crude Oil Market Analysis - **Supply - side Changes**: After OPEC+ decided on compensatory production cuts for over - producing Kazakhstan and Iraq, the supply - side expectations of crude oil were revised. The US Treasury's sanctions on Iran to limit its oil exports to zero also adjusted the expected increase in crude oil supply [5]. - **Geopolitical Factors**: The sanctions on Iran intensified the conflict between the US and Iran, strengthening the premium boost of geopolitical factors on crude oil [5]. - **Market Sentiment**: After US President Trump stated that he had no intention of dismissing the Fed Chairman, the risk appetite of the global financial market was restored, leading to a slight rebound in international crude oil futures prices [5]. - **Price Performance**: On Tuesday night, the domestic crude oil futures 2506 contract closed up 2.15% at 498 yuan per barrel [5].

原油 ： SC 夜盘上涨 2.15% 。欧佩克在网站上发布消息说，已收到伊拉克、哈萨克斯坦和其他国家进一步减产的最新计 划，以弥补以前超过配额的产量。据计算，最新计划要求七个国家从现在到 2026 年 6 月期间，每月额外减少日产量 36.9 万桶。根据最新补偿计划，从本月到 2026 年 6 月，每月减产量将从每日 19.6 万桶到 52 万桶不等，高于此前的每日 18.9 万 桶至 43.5 万桶。贝克休斯公布的数据显示，截止 4 月 17 日的一周，美国在线钻探油井数量 481 座，比前周增加 1 座；比 去年同期减少 30 座。短期继续看跌油价，但同时关注低油价给与美国制裁委内瑞拉和伊朗的空间。 股指： 美国三大指数上涨，上一交易日股指小幅波动，商贸零售板块领涨，传媒板块领跌，全市成交额 1.12 万亿元，其中 IH2505 上涨 0.07% ， IF2505 下跌 0.12% ， IC2505 下跌 0.34% ， IM2505 上涨 0.01% 。资金方面， 4 月 21 日融资余额增 加 57.27 亿元至 17984.42 亿元。关税对市场影响程度有所下降，不过中美双方的关税争端仍在不断的交涉 ...

Group 1: Market Reactions and Oil Prices - The criticism from President Trump towards Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has caused volatility in financial markets, leading to a decline in oil prices due to concerns over economic growth and fuel demand [1] - As of April 21, the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell by $1.60 to $63.08 per barrel, a decrease of 2.47%, while Brent crude oil dropped by $1.70 to $66.26 per barrel, a decline of 2.50% [1] - Overall market sentiment towards oil remains bearish, driven by lowered demand expectations and a bleak global economic outlook [1] Group 2: Institutional Soft Power and Global Trust - The uncertainty in U.S. policies, particularly Trump's tariff strategies, is eroding the institutional soft power of the U.S. financial governance system, impacting the credibility of the Federal Reserve [2] - The dollar index has fallen to a 15-month low, and U.S. stock markets have experienced significant declines due to this trust crisis, which has also affected the oil market [2] - The investment willingness of shale oil companies is being suppressed, with half of Texas oil firms facing survival challenges at oil prices below $50 per barrel [2] Group 3: Energy Diplomacy and Trade Dynamics - The U.S. is utilizing energy exports, including 18 million barrels of ethane and 651 million barrels of propane, as leverage to compel Asian countries like Indonesia and India to make multi-billion dollar purchases [2] - This strategy aims to balance trade deficits through energy exports, effectively reshaping international trade rules [2] - China's strong countermeasures and Japan's refusal to yield highlight the limitations of unilateral strategies in the current geopolitical landscape [2] Group 4: Systemic Challenges in the Energy Sector - Trump's tariff policies are creating a "decision fog" that is undermining the systemic resilience of the global energy market, with significant crises in the shale oil industry and financial pressures on traditional oil producers like Saudi Arabia and Russia [3] - Fitch predicts that Saudi Arabia's fiscal deficit will expand to 4.1%, indicating a collapse of systemic coordination within the energy sector [3] - The bond financing proposals from Dubai National Bank are seen as emergency measures to restore system stability [3] Group 5: Ideological Struggles and Value Recognition - China's strategy of "equal consultation + reciprocal countermeasures" is aimed at building a new value recognition system to counter unilateralism [3] - This ideological battle is reflected in the oil market through diverging demand expectations, with Asian countries forced to procure oil while U.S. shale investments decline [3] - The IMF's assessment that Saudi Arabia needs oil prices at $90 per barrel to balance its budget serves as an economic benchmark for this value recognition conflict [3] Group 6: Strategic Forecasting and Energy Transition - The current crisis is fundamentally a competition of strategic foresight in the context of an impending energy revolution, exposing vulnerabilities in the traditional energy system [4] - The challenges faced by U.S. shale oil companies and Saudi economic reforms highlight the strategic fragility of the existing energy framework [4] - Predictions of an industry consolidation wave driven by strategic foresight suggest that stronger players will reshape the industry ecosystem through mergers and acquisitions [4]

铜： 夜盘铜价收低。目前精矿加工费总体低位以及低铜价，考验冶炼产量。根据国家统计局数据来 看，国内下游需求总体稳定向好，电网带动电力投资高增长，家电产量延续增长，需关注出口变化，新 能源渗透率提升有望巩固汽车铜需求，地产数据降幅缩窄。铜价短期可能宽幅波动，关注美国关税谈判 进展，以及美元、人民币汇率、库存和基差等变化。 贵金属 ：黄金持续刷新新高。特朗普在其社交媒体平台 Truth Social 表示，"谈判与成功的黄金法则： 拥有黄金者制定规则"，即谁有黄金谁占主导，引发市场猜想。同时，特朗普一再要求美联储降息，并 研究能否免去鲍威尔的美联储主席职务，动摇市场信心。随着贸易战扰动加剧，引发一系列的连锁反 应，金融市场动荡、衰退风险加剧、去美元化、美国债务等问题愈发凸显，伴随政策和市场的不确定 性，黄金价格持续刷新历史新高。面对未来通胀上行压力，鲍威尔也未对未来降息进行松口，但长端美 债价格的波动，令市场对美联储重启 QE 和提前降息的预期升温。考虑今年美国国债到期和债务压力进 一步加剧，滞胀形式进一步明确下，黄金整体仍将维持强势。 一、当日主要新闻关注 1 ）国际新闻 首席点评：美股全线回落，特朗普呼吁降息 ...

Economic Overview - The U.S. economy is experiencing backlash from "reciprocal tariffs," leading to concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, resulting in a significant drop in the stock market [1] - Major U.S. stock indices, including the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones, have all fallen over 2% [1] - The latest data shows a decline in the Conference Board's leading economic index for March, recording a -0.7% change, the largest drop since October 2023 [8] Energy Sector - WTI crude oil futures dropped over 3%, currently priced at $62.28 per barrel, while Brent crude fell below $65 per barrel [3][4] - The energy market is reflecting a broader trend of declining prices, with NYMEX WTI down 2.70% and ICE Brent down 2.68% [4] Technology Sector - Major U.S. tech stocks, including Tesla and Nvidia, have seen significant declines, with Tesla down nearly 7% and Nvidia down over 5% [4][5] - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index has also dropped over 1%, with companies like Meituan and JD.com falling more than 4% [5][6] Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - President Trump has called for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, suggesting that economic growth may slow unless this occurs [9] - Citigroup predicts the Federal Reserve will implement its next rate cut in June, maintaining a forecast of a 125 basis point cut by 2025 [7] - Federal Reserve officials have indicated that while short-term inflation expectations are rising, long-term expectations remain stable, suggesting lower rates in the next 12-18 months [10] Currency Market - The U.S. dollar index has faced a significant drop, falling over 1% to a near three-year low, attributed to pressures surrounding Federal Reserve Chairman Powell [11]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views - Trump's tariff policy has led to significant fluctuations in overseas stock markets, suppressing market risk appetite. However, domestic monetary policy tools have sufficient room for adjustment, and institutions such as Central Huijin have increased their holdings of ETFs to stabilize the market. Policy encourages long - term capital to enter the market. [2][4] - The economic growth in the first quarter was good, but there may be pressure in the second quarter due to tariffs. Interest rates are in a game stage, expected to remain volatile in the short - term. [6] - There are differences between the net long positions of foreign gold management funds and the holdings of gold ETFs, and there is a risk of a short - term pullback in gold prices. [7] - The prices of various metals and energy chemicals are affected by factors such as supply and demand, policies, and tariffs, showing different trends. [10][11][40] Summaries by Categories Macro - financial Stock Index - The previous trading day saw mixed performance of major indexes, with a decline in trading volume. Macro news includes national measures to stabilize the stock market and real estate, and Trump - related tariff and interest - rate remarks. The financing amount decreased, and the overnight Shibor rate increased. [2] - The P/E ratios, P/B ratios, and dividend yields of major indexes are provided, along with the basis ratios of stock index futures. [3] - Affected by Trump's tariff policy, overseas stock market fluctuations suppress risk appetite. It is recommended to go long on IH or IF futures related to the economy and IC or IM futures related to "new - quality productivity" after the tariff impact weakens. The strategy is to buy IM long - positions on dips. [4] Treasury Bonds - On Friday, the main contracts of TL and T rose, while TF and TS fell. Fiscal revenue data shows a decline in tax revenue and an increase in non - tax revenue. Trump called for the Fed to lower interest rates. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, achieving a net injection. [5][6] - Economic growth in the first quarter was good, but there may be pressure in the second quarter. Interest rates are in a game stage, expected to remain volatile in the short - term. Attention should be paid to policy signals from the end - of - April meeting and economic data. [6] Precious Metals - The prices of Shanghai gold and COMEX gold rose, while Shanghai silver and COMEX silver fell. Trump expressed confidence in a tariff agreement, and the VIX index declined. The net long positions of foreign gold management funds decreased, while the holdings of global gold ETFs increased significantly. There is a risk of a short - term pullback in gold prices. [7] - It is expected that the Fed will maintain a hawkish stance in May. It is recommended to hold existing gold long - positions, and the cost - effectiveness of opening new long - positions is low. For silver, it is recommended to wait and see. [8] Non - ferrous Metals Copper - Last week, copper prices fluctuated slightly higher. Exchange inventories decreased, and the spot import was slightly in deficit. The LME market shifted from premium to discount. The scrap copper supply was tight, and the operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises decreased. Trump's statement and the approaching Politburo meeting may bring positive sentiment. In the short - term, prices may fluctuate. [10] Aluminum - Last week, aluminum prices fluctuated weakly. Domestic and LME inventories decreased, and the spot premium increased. The demand for photovoltaic - related aluminum is strong. The impact of tariffs is limited, and domestic aluminum prices are expected to be supported by the decline in inventory, with the possibility of a wider spread between months. [11] Zinc - Last week, zinc prices continued to decline. Domestic and overseas inventories showed different trends, and the basis and spread changed. The supply is expected to be loose, and downstream procurement is expected to weaken. In the short - term, prices may fluctuate at a low level, and there is a risk of further decline in the medium - term. [12][13] Lead - Last week, lead prices rebounded after a decline. Domestic and overseas inventories decreased, and the basis and spread strengthened slightly. The supply is generally loose, and the demand is stable. In the short - term, prices may fluctuate strongly, and in the medium - term, they are expected to fluctuate in a range. [14] Nickel - Last week, nickel prices recovered due to the alleviation of tariff concerns. The supply is expected to increase, the demand for high - priced nickel is limited, and the cost support may weaken. It is recommended to short on rallies. [15] Tin - Last week, tin prices fluctuated. The supply may decrease in April, and the demand has improved but its sustainability is uncertain. The inventory has decreased. In the short - term, prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level. [16] Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate decreased slightly. The impact of tariffs has faded, and the price has entered the bottom - cost area. Production has decreased, and inventory accumulation has slowed. The supply and demand may weaken, and the price is likely to fluctuate weakly. [18] Alumina - The alumina index fell. The spot price remained unchanged, the basis was positive, and the overseas price was stable. The supply is still in surplus, but there are more production cuts recently. It is recommended to wait and see. [19] Stainless Steel - The price of stainless steel decreased. The spot price was stable, and the basis increased. The raw material price was stable, and the inventory decreased. The sales were slow, and the price decline was limited by cost inversion. [20] Black Building Materials Steel - The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil decreased. The registered warehouse receipts decreased, and the positions increased. The spot price also decreased. The "tariff issue" has a great impact on the overall commodity price, and the demand for steel is affected. The supply and demand of steel have different trends, and the inventory is decreasing. The market shows a pattern of "strong reality, weak expectation". [22][23] Iron Ore - The price of iron ore decreased. The overseas mine shipments were stable, the arrival volume increased, the demand may weaken, and the inventory decreased. In the short - term, it will wait for consolidation, and in the later stage, there is downward pressure on the price. [24] Glass and Soda Ash - The spot price of glass decreased, the sales were weak, and the inventory decline slowed. The spot price of soda ash was stable, the supply was at a high level, and the inventory decreased slightly. The demand for soda ash from photovoltaic glass provides some support, and it is expected to run weakly. [25][26] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - The price of manganese silicon continued to decline, and the price of ferrosilicon also decreased. The supply is relatively strong, and the demand is weak. The cost of manganese ore may continue to decline, and there is a risk of further price decline. For ferrosilicon, the production is decreasing, but the demand may also weaken. It is recommended to wait and see or follow the short - term trend. [27][28][29] Industrial Silicon - The price of industrial silicon accelerated its decline. The supply is in surplus, and the demand is insufficient. Downstream industries have over - supply, and the production of industrial silicon is still expanding. It is recommended to wait and see or follow the short - term trend. [32][33] Energy and Chemicals Rubber - The global financial market is volatile, and the decline in rubber prices has released most of the risks. The bulls expect price increases due to production - cut expectations, while the bears are bearish due to weak demand. The operating rate of tire enterprises decreased, and the inventory increased. It is expected to fluctuate, and short - term operations are recommended. [36][37][38] Crude Oil - The prices of WTI, Brent, and INE crude oil futures increased. European oil product inventories showed different trends, with an overall increase in refined oil inventories. It is believed that the oil price has bottomed out, and investors are advised to take profits on dips and wait for a turning point. [40][41][42] Methanol - The 09 - contract price of methanol increased, while the spot price decreased. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand may weaken. It is recommended to short on rallies, and pay attention to the 9 - 1 spread and the PP - 3MA spread. [43] Urea - The 09 - contract price of urea increased, while the spot price decreased. The supply will remain high, and the demand will be strong. The inventory is expected to decrease, and it is suitable to go long on dips, with a positive - spread strategy for the 9 - 1 spread. [44] Styrene - The price of the 06 - contract of styrene increased, while the spot price decreased. The cost is affected by the price of crude oil and pure benzene, and the downstream demand is weak. It is recommended to wait for opportunities to short on rallies. [45] PVC - The price of the PVC09 contract decreased slightly. The cost is stable, the supply and demand are weak, and the inventory is decreasing. In the short - term, it is expected to fluctuate weakly, and in the medium - term, the valuation center will continue to decline. [46][47] Ethylene Glycol - The price of the EG09 contract increased, while the spot price decreased. The supply decreased, and the demand increased. The inventory is decreasing, but there is a risk of negative feedback in the industry chain. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term. [48] PTA - The price of the PTA09 contract increased, and the spot price also increased. The supply is in the maintenance season, and the demand is affected by the downstream. The inventory is decreasing, and the processing fee is under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see. [49] p - Xylene - The price of the PX09 contract increased, and the CFR price also increased. The supply is in the maintenance season, and the demand is affected by the downstream. The inventory is decreasing, and the valuation is low. It is recommended to wait and see. [50][51] Polyethylene (PE) - The price of PE decreased. The supply will increase in the second quarter, the demand is weakening, and the price is expected to decline in the medium - and long - term. [52] Polypropylene (PP) - The price of PP increased slightly. The cost is supported, the supply will increase, and the demand will decline seasonally. It is expected to fluctuate weakly. [53] Agricultural Products Live Pigs - The domestic pig price mainly declined over the weekend. The terminal demand is limited, and the price may decline in the north and remain stable in the south. It is advisable to short on short - term rebounds. [55] Eggs - The domestic egg price was mainly stable over the weekend, with a slight decline in some areas. The supply is mostly sufficient, and the demand is average. The price may rise slightly and then stabilize, with a risk of decline later. It is recommended to wait for short - selling signals. [56] Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The domestic soybean meal price increased locally over the weekend, with a trend of inventory accumulation in the future. The开机率 is expected to increase. The price of U.S. soybeans is affected by weather and tariffs. The cost of imported soybeans is expected to rise steadily, and domestic soybean meal is expected to fluctuate in a range. [57][58] Oils and Fats - The export of Malaysian palm oil increased in April, and the production also increased. The price of crude oil has an impact on the valuation of oils and fats. The supply of oils and fats is increasing seasonally, and there is a risk of price decline. If the macro - economy stabilizes, there may be support. [59][60] Sugar - The price of Zhengzhou sugar futures rebounded slightly. The domestic supply and demand are in a tight balance, and the price is relatively resistant to decline. In the short - term, the price may fluctuate, and in the long - term, it may decline if the weather improves. [61][62] Cotton - The price of Zhengzhou cotton futures fluctuated narrowly. The spot price increased slightly, and the basis was positive. The operating rate of spinning and weaving mills decreased, and the inventory increased. The domestic supply and demand are in a tight balance, and the price trend depends on downstream consumption. [63][64]