788期货 r c 国际期货 TG (2) .r112 _1X2 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可[ 2012 ]31号 [ TC 国贸期货 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ,烯数据目报 | | | | | | | | 投资咨询证:Z0017251 | 国贸期货研究院 | 2025/09/03 | | | | | | 从业资格证:F3066728 = | 能源化工研究中心 陈胜 | | | | | | | 1 现货综述 | 变动值 | 指标 | 2025/09/01 | 2025/09/02 | 64.01 | | | WTI | 64. 01 | 0 | 原油& | | | | | 0. 03 | 68. 12 | 68. 15 | Brent | 石脑油 | 2.37 | | | 石脑油 1 | 593. 88 | 596. 25 | 苯乙烯:江苏市场低开整理。供应压力尚存,苯乙烯 | 11 | 乙烯 CFR东北亚 | | | 840 | -2 | 842 | 游 | 市场卖盘意向偏强,主力盘弱盘,午间闻现货有商谈 | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The report analyzes multiple industries and commodities, including energy, metals, chemicals, agricultural products, and financial derivatives, providing insights into market trends, supply - demand relationships, and investment strategies for each sector [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Energy - **Crude Oil**: Overnight international oil prices rose, with Brent 11 contract up 1.34%. In the third quarter, the oil market supply - demand was balanced. Considering OPEC+ output increase in September and post - peak demand decline, there is a risk of inventory build - up. Look for shorting opportunities when SC11 rebounds above 495 yuan/barrel [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: Singapore and Chinese ship - fuel sales declined year - on - year, but domestic refinery production was also low. Due to geopolitical premium and delayed supply pressure, LU rebounded and FU strengthened [22] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: After the gas off - season, it shows some resilience. Supported by rising import costs and domestic demand, the civil gas price increased. The high - basis difference pattern persists, and the short - term market is strong in the near term and weak in the long term [24] - **Asphalt**: In the traditional peak season, demand increases seasonally, and supply - demand tightens. The 10 - contract is supported at 3500 yuan/ton, and it is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [23] Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight, the US manufacturing PMI was slightly lower than expected, increasing the expectation of a Fed rate cut. Maintain a long position and focus on the US non - farm payroll data on Friday [3] - **Copper**: Overnight, copper prices broke through integer thresholds. In the short - to - medium term, it is affected by the Fed rate cut, domestic refined copper consumption substitution, and capital resonance. Hold short - term long positions based on the MA5 moving average [4] - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum oscillated strongly. Downstream开工率 has increased seasonally for four weeks. It is expected to test the resistance at 21,000 yuan in the short term [5] - **Alumina**: Production capacity is at a historical high, with rising inventory and supply surplus. It is running weakly, and pay attention to the support at 2830 - 3000 yuan [6] - **Zinc**: In September, refinery maintenance may reduce output. In the short term, it rebounds, but in the medium term, maintain a short - allocation strategy [8] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Due to political unrest in Indonesia, prices rebounded. Short - term short positions are suspended, and a wait - and - see approach is adopted [10] - **Tin**: Overnight, Shanghai tin recovered some losses. There is a shortage of concentrates, and short - term long positions can be held based on 271,000 yuan [11] - **Manganese Silicon**: Production is increasing, and inventory has not accumulated. In the long term, manganese ore is expected to accumulate inventory [19] - **Silicon Iron**: Supply is increasing, demand is okay, and inventory is slightly decreasing [20] Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Futures prices declined, and the market was quiet. The overall sentiment is low, and a wait - and - see approach is adopted [12] - **Polysilicon**: It oscillated below 52,000 yuan/ton. Before new policy details are disclosed, the PS2511 price is expected to face pressure at 53,000 yuan/ton [13] - **Industrial Silicon**: Futures prices rose slightly. In September, supply surplus will intensify, and there is a risk of a price decline after the current up - trend [14] - **Methanol**: Coastal available supply is abundant, and inventory is accumulating. But with the improvement of downstream device economics, the market is expected to strengthen [26] - **Pure Benzene**: Oil prices rebounded, and benzene prices stopped falling. In the third quarter, supply - demand may improve [27] - **Styrene**: Crude oil and pure benzene provide little support. Supply - demand contradiction is increasing, and the fundamentals are weak [28] - **Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene**: Propylene production enterprises have controllable inventory pressure, but downstream acceptance of price increases is limited. Polyethylene demand is okay, while polypropylene supply pressure is increasing [29] - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: PVC supply pressure is high, and it may oscillate weakly. Caustic soda prices are relatively firm but may also oscillate widely [30] - **PX and PTA**: Prices are oscillating at a low level. Demand is improving, but the actual improvement is limited [31] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Prices fluctuate around 4350 yuan/ton. Supply - demand is weakening, and there are both long and short factors in the medium term [32] Agricultural Products - **Soybeans and Soybean Meal**: There is uncertainty in Sino - US trade. In the short term, it may oscillate, and in the long term, there is a cautious bullish view on domestic soybean meal [37] - **Soybean Oil and Palm Oil**: Prices rebounded. In the long term, consider buying at low prices, but pay attention to volatility risks [38] - **Corn**: Dalian corn futures were weak at night. After the new - grain purchase enthusiasm fades, it may continue to run weakly at the bottom [40] - **Pigs**: Spot prices are mixed, and futures prices are weak. There is downward pressure on prices under large supply [41] - **Eggs**: Spot prices are stable, and futures prices rebounded. Consider long positions in far - month contracts for next year [42] - **Cotton**: US cotton prices fell, and Zhengzhou cotton may continue to oscillate. Consider buying on dips [43] - **Sugar**: US sugar prices are trending down, and domestic sugar prices are expected to oscillate [44] - **Apples**: Futures prices are oscillating at a high level. In the short term, prices may rise, but in the long term, there is limited upside [45] - **Timber**: Futures prices are oscillating. Supply may remain low, and a wait - and - see approach is adopted [46] - **Paper Pulp**: Futures prices rose slightly. Supply is relatively loose, and a wait - and - see or range - trading approach is recommended [47] Financial Derivatives - **Container Shipping Index (European Route)**: MSC announced empty - sailing plans for the Golden Week. Spot prices are under pressure, and the market is expected to oscillate [21] - **Stock Index**: The market is adjusting, and there is short - term macro uncertainty. Increase allocation to technology - growth sectors [48] - **Treasury Bonds**: Futures prices oscillated flat. Pay attention to the opportunity for curve steepening in short - term multi - variety hedging [49]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2) Core View of the Report - The overall trading of PVC powder in the domestic market was dull today. The prices of most markets rose slightly, with an increase of 10 - 15 yuan/ton. The PVC powder futures fluctuated slightly higher. Given the high uncertainty of macro - policies, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [3] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Coal and Related Products - The price of Q5500 coal on September 1, 2025, was 694, and on September 2, 2025, it was 693. The price of Shaanxi medium - sized blue charcoal remained at 660. The price of Inner Mongolia calcium carbide and Shandong calcium carbide remained unchanged at 2400 and 2730 respectively [3] Futures and Spot - The main continuous futures price decreased by 6, from 4894 to 4888. The price of East China SG - 5 remained at 4680, while the price of South China SG - 5 increased by 10 to 4770. The price of R - SG - 5 remained at 4730, and the price of Northwest SG - 5 decreased by 100 to 4420. The price of East China S - 1000 remained at 4950 [3] Basis - The basis in East China increased by 6 to - 208, the basis in South China increased by 16 to - 118, and the basis in another area (referred to as "卡求") increased by 6 to - 158 [3] Profit - The profit of Shandong calcium carbide method remained at - 889, and the profit of Inner Mongolia calcium carbide method decreased by 100 to - 668 [3] Outer Market - CFR China increased by 30 to 731, CFR Southeast Asia remained at 679, and FAS Houston decreased by 10 to 607 [3] Start - up Rate - The total start - up rate decreased by 1.59% to 76.02%. The start - up rate of the calcium carbide method increased by 0.44% to 77.25%, and the start - up rate of the ethylene method decreased by 6.64% to 72.95% [3] Inventory - The social inventory increased by 1.39 to 52.19. The inventory in East China increased by 1.34 to 46.36, and the inventory in another area (referred to as "夜南") increased by 0.05 to 5.83 [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas: The US macro - fundamentals are stable, but the political pressure on the Fed has pushed up market expectations of interest rate cuts. Although there are positive feedbacks on investment and consumption, there are still tail risks. Domestically, the market's expectation of corporate profit margins has improved, and recent real - estate policies in first - tier cities may boost transaction volume [7]. - In the short term, market volatility in China may increase. After important events, the pricing weight of fundamentals on assets, especially short - duration commodity assets, may rise. Overseas, liquidity will expand in the next 1 - 2 quarters, entering a "loose expectation + weak dollar" repair channel [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: The US macro - fundamentals are stable. The political pressure on the Fed has reached a new high, pushing up market interest - rate cut expectations. However, service inflation stickiness, tariff shocks, and concerns about the Fed's independence remain tail risks [7]. - **Domestic Macro**: The market's expectation of corporate profit margins has improved. "Anti - involution" has promoted the improvement of mid - stream profits in July. In the real - estate market, first - tier cities have introduced demand - side policies, which may increase transaction volume but the sustainability needs to be observed [7]. - **Asset Views**: In China, short - term market volatility may increase at the beginning of September. After important events, the pricing weight of fundamentals on assets may rise. Overseas, liquidity will expand in the next 1 - 2 quarters, supporting total demand recovery [7]. 2. Viewpoint Highlights - **Financial**: Stock index futures are expected to rise in shock, index options will fluctuate, and treasury bond futures will also be in a shock state, still depending on the performance of the stock market [8]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices are expected to rise in shock as the US interest - rate cut cycle may restart in September, but market risks need attention [8]. - **Shipping**: The freight rate of the European container shipping line may fluctuate as the peak season fades in the third quarter [8]. - **Black Building Materials**: Most varieties in this sector, such as steel, iron ore, coke, etc., are expected to be in a shock state due to factors like inventory changes, policy influences, and supply - demand relationships [8]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Although the weak dollar supports non - ferrous metals, the weak demand also needs attention. Most varieties will be in a shock state, with zinc prices expected to fall in shock [8]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil prices are expected to fall in shock, while most other chemical products will be in a shock state due to factors such as supply - demand relationships, new - capacity pressures, and cost changes [10]. - **Agriculture**: Most agricultural products, including grains, oils, and fibers, are expected to be in a shock state, waiting for further information such as field inspection results [10].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [4] 2. Core Viewpoints - The price of ethylene glycol (EG) declined. The closing price of the main EG contract was 4339 yuan/ton, down 88 yuan/ton (-1.99%) from the previous trading day, and the spot price in the East China market was 4453 yuan/ton, down 54 yuan/ton (-1.20%). The spot basis in East China was 86 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton [2]. - The production profit of ethylene - made EG was -$50/ton, down $3/ton, and that of coal - made syngas EG was -40 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan/ton [2]. - The inventory in the main ports of East China showed a downward trend. According to CCF data, it was 44.9 tons, down 5.1 tons; according to Longzhong data, it was 41.3 tons, down 8.5 tons. The planned arrival in the main ports of East China this week is 9.8 tons, a moderate amount [2]. - On the supply side, domestic EG load has returned to a high level and is expected to remain stable in the short term, with the syngas load possibly falling in September. Overseas supply has suffered many losses, and the import volume from September to October may be revised down. On the demand side, there are signs of recovery, and the polyester load is expected to increase slightly. The supply - demand balance from August to September is loose, with few contradictions [3]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Price and Basis - The closing price of the main EG contract was 4339 yuan/ton, down 88 yuan/ton (-1.99%) from the previous trading day, and the spot price in the East China market was 4453 yuan/ton, down 54 yuan/ton (-1.20%). The spot basis in East China was 86 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton [2] II. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - made EG was -$50/ton, down $3/ton, and that of coal - made syngas EG was -40 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan/ton. The domestic EG load has returned to a high level and is expected to remain stable in the short term, with the syngas load possibly falling in September [2][3] III. International Price Difference - No specific data provided in the given text IV. Downstream Production and Sales and Operating Rate - The current demand shows signs of recovery, and the polyester load is expected to remain stable with a slight increase. Attention should be paid to the time of concentrated order placement in the later stage [3] V. Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the inventory in the main ports of East China was 44.9 tons, down 5.1 tons; according to Longzhong data, it was 41.3 tons, down 8.5 tons. The planned arrival in the main ports of East China this week is 9.8 tons, a moderate amount [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, individual product outlooks are given, including "oscillating", "oscillating weakly", "oscillating strongly", etc. These ratings are based on the expected price movements of the products within the next 2 - 12 weeks, with different definitions for each rating in terms of standard deviations [272]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - International crude oil has shown a slightly stronger trend recently. Concerns about supply disruptions due to Ukraine's attacks on Russian oil infrastructure have boosted oil prices, but the overall market is still under supply pressure from OPEC+增产 and US production resilience. The market expects OPEC+ to maintain the current production policy at the upcoming meeting. Oil prices are likely to oscillate to digest the supply disturbances caused by the Ukraine attacks [1]. - The chemical industry continues to oscillate and consolidate. There is no dominant market logic, and futures prices fluctuate with raw materials and market sentiment. The uncertainty of the commissioning time of chemical plants, especially ethylene glycol plants, increases the difficulty of investment. If the chemical industry rebounds following crude oil, investors can gradually short products with severe over - capacity, such as olefins [2]. - Investors should approach oil - chemical products with an oscillating mindset and wait for the implementation of specific policies to address the over - competition in China's petrochemical industry. 3. Summary by Product Category Crude Oil - **Viewpoint**: Supply pressure persists, and attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances. - **Main Logic**: Tensions between the US and Venezuela and Trump's changing attitude towards Russia support geopolitical premiums and increase oil price volatility. However, the supply pressure from OPEC+增产 and US production resilience makes it difficult to reverse the market's oversupply expectation. Oil prices are expected to oscillate weakly, and attention should be paid to short - term disturbances from Russia - Ukraine negotiations [7]. Asphalt - **Viewpoint**: The escalation of the US - Venezuela situation has led to a significant increase in the geopolitical premium of asphalt. - **Main Logic**: The market has refocused on negative factors such as tariff increases and OPEC+增产, but the recent escalation of the US - Venezuela situation has led to expectations of a supply cut in asphalt raw materials, driving up asphalt futures prices. However, the supply tension has been significantly alleviated, and the demand is still not optimistic. The absolute price of asphalt is over - estimated, and the monthly spread is expected to decline as warehouse receipts increase [8]. High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: The geopolitical premium of high - sulfur fuel oil has increased significantly. - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and between the US and Venezuela have enhanced the geopolitical premium of high - sulfur fuel oil, but the increase is limited by the increase in warehouse receipts. The import tariff of fuel oil in China has been raised, and the demand for high - sulfur fuel oil has changed. The three main drivers supporting high - sulfur fuel oil are showing a weakening trend. Geopolitical upgrades are expected to have only a short - term impact on prices [8]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: Low - sulfur fuel oil has followed the increase in crude oil prices. - **Main Logic**: Low - sulfur fuel oil has oscillated and declined following crude oil. It is facing multiple negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. It is expected to follow crude oil price fluctuations while maintaining a low valuation [10]. Methanol - **Viewpoint**: There is still an expectation of shutdown in the far - month contract, and the methanol futures price has rebounded. - **Main Logic**: On September 2, the methanol futures price oscillated. The far - month shutdown expectation has caused the futures price to decline first and then rebound significantly. The fundamentals of downstream olefins provide limited support. Considering the high certainty of overseas shutdowns in the far - month, opportunities for going long in the far - month can be considered [19]. Urea - **Viewpoint**: The release of the Indian tender has been postponed, and the market is generally waiting and watching. It is expected to strengthen soon. - **Main Logic**: As of September 2, information on the Indian tender and export policies has not been finalized, and the market is waiting and watching. The futures price has rebounded slightly, and the spot prices in different regions have diverged. The supply is expected to decrease, and the autumn demand is expected to pick up. Attention should be paid to the Indian tender price and subsequent export progress [19][20]. Ethylene Glycol - **Viewpoint**: The news of commissioning has stimulated the futures market to weaken. - **Main Logic**: The narrow fluctuations of coal and oil prices provide limited cost guidance. The news of the commissioning of Yulong Petrochemical's ethylene and downstream products has had a negative impact on the market, increasing supply pressure. Although the supply - demand structure shows some signs of weakening, the market is still in the de - stocking cycle, which provides some support [14][15][16]. PX - **Viewpoint**: Cost and sentiment fluctuations are still the main driving forces. - **Main Logic**: The commodity sentiment is poor, and PX has continued to decline. The upstream load has remained stable, but the commissioning of aromatic hydrocarbon plants has increased supply pressure. The downstream PTA plants are operating at a low level, and polyester demand is fair. PX is expected to maintain a tight balance, and its price is expected to fluctuate with cost and macro - sentiment [11]. PTA - **Viewpoint**: It is oscillating to find support, and cost and sentiment dominate the direction. - **Main Logic**: The Russia - Ukraine issue has stalled, and the crude oil market has been in a stalemate, providing limited guidance. After the hype of upstream plants subsided, the commodity sentiment cooled down, and the spot basis weakened. The downstream polyester sales and production have limited improvement, and the enthusiasm for raw material procurement is not high. It is expected to seek support downward in the short term, with a limited overall decline [11]. Short - Fiber - **Viewpoint**: There is an expectation of plant restart, and the quality of demand still needs to be verified. - **Main Logic**: The upstream cost performance is poor, and the absolute price of short - fiber has declined accordingly. The supply - demand situation has weakened marginally, the downstream sales and production are mediocre, and the terminal's procurement behavior is cautious. The quality of the peak season still needs to be verified. The absolute value of short - fiber will fluctuate with raw materials and oscillate in the short term [16]. Bottle Chip - **Viewpoint**: The production cut in September remains at 20% and can be expanded to 30% if necessary. - **Main Logic**: The upstream cost is still seeking support, and the price of polyester bottle chips is oscillating weakly. The supply - demand drive is limited, and the overall order intake has declined in the off - season. The processing margin has no obvious expansion driver and will maintain an oscillating consolidation [17][18]. PP - **Viewpoint**: The support from maintenance is limited, and PP is oscillating weakly. - **Main Logic**: News of addressing the petrochemical over - capacity through plant maintenance has limited actual impact. Oil prices are oscillating in the short term, and geopolitical uncertainties remain. The supply side of PP is still increasing, and there is inventory pressure in the upstream and mid - stream. The demand has a peak - off - season switch, and the pipe - making industry's start - up rate has increased. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [22]. Propylene (PL) - **Viewpoint**: PL follows the short - term fluctuations of PP. - **Main Logic**: On September 2, PL oscillated. Propylene enterprises' inventories are at a low level, and they are mainly pushing up prices. Downstream factories purchase on demand. The short - term market follows PP fluctuations, and the polypropylene processing fee is the key focus on the market [23]. Plastic - **Viewpoint**: The performance of peak - season demand is the short - term focus, and plastic is oscillating. - **Main Logic**: News of addressing the petrochemical over - capacity and the elimination of South Korean petrochemical capacity have limited actual impact. Oil prices are oscillating, and geopolitical uncertainties remain. There is still a capital game in the macro - environment, and the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption expectation still exists. The fundamentals of plastic are still under pressure, with high production and inventory levels. Attention should be paid to the downstream start - up rate and purchasing willingness [21]. Pure Benzene - **Viewpoint**: The port will return to inventory accumulation, and the price of pure benzene will oscillate weakly. - **Main Logic**: More naphtha buyers are seeking October shipments, and the market expects a tightening supply due to planned maintenance in the Middle East and reduced exports from Russian refineries. However, the increase in imported pure benzene at the port and the return of the anti - over - competition sentiment in the energy and chemical industry have led to a decline in the price of pure benzene. The demand verification is crucial as the peak season approaches, but the orders of downstream products have not improved significantly [13]. Styrene - **Viewpoint**: The inventory pressure is prominent, and styrene continues to decline. - **Main Logic**: The decline of styrene is mainly due to the cooling of the anti - over - competition sentiment in the energy and chemical industry and the black commodity sentiment. Its fundamentals are poor, and it is significantly weaker than other chemical products. The explicit and implicit inventories are high, and the cost support is insufficient. The peak - season demand has not materialized, and the downstream demand is weak. There is some support at the valuation level of 7000 - 7100, but there is no positive driver for a rebound [14][15][16]. PVC - **Viewpoint**: Weak market conditions are suppressing PVC, and it is operating weakly. - **Main Logic**: At the macro - level, the domestic anti - over - competition policy has not been implemented, and the probability of overseas interest rate cuts has increased. At the micro - level, the fundamentals of PVC are under pressure, with a decline in cost. The production is expected to decline in September due to autumn maintenance, the downstream start - up rate has not changed much, the export expectation is under pressure, and the cost is moving down. The market sentiment is poor, and the inventory is increasing, so the market is expected to operate weakly [25]. Caustic Soda - **Viewpoint**: The spot price rebound has slowed down, and the market is on hold for now. - **Main Logic**: At the macro - level, the domestic anti - over - competition policy has not been implemented, and the probability of overseas interest rate cuts has increased. At the micro - level, the fundamentals have improved marginally, with increased demand for replenishment, improved non - aluminum start - up rates, increased export orders, and a slight decline in production due to maintenance. The spot price has reached a temporary peak, and the market is expected to oscillate due to the expectation of alumina production in the far - month [26].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent surge in the A-share market, particularly driven by the artificial intelligence sector, while highlighting the shift of institutional investors towards the chemical sector due to anticipated supply-side reforms and the elimination of outdated production capacity [6][9][12]. Group 1: Market Trends - The Shanghai Composite Index has risen over 15% since June, nearing a 10-year high [6]. - The ChiNext Index has seen a nearly 40% increase, indicating strong performance in the technology sector [9]. - Institutional investors, cautious about chasing high prices, have begun to invest in the chemical sector [11]. Group 2: Policy Impacts - The sixth Central Financial Committee meeting emphasized the need to regulate low-price competition and improve product quality, signaling a significant policy shift [12]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's meeting on July 2 sparked a major rally in the polysilicon market, with prices soaring over 80% in less than a month [12][13]. - The Central Political Bureau's meeting on July 30 reiterated the focus on orderly capacity reduction in key industries, indicating a more market-oriented approach to supply-side reforms [14]. Group 3: Chemical Industry Dynamics - The chemical industry has experienced significant capacity expansion since 2018, but demand growth has not kept pace, leading to overcapacity [16][17]. - The utilization rate for chemical raw materials and products is at 71.90%, below the national industrial average [17]. - The profitability of the chemical industry has declined, with operating income margins dropping from 8.03% in 2021 to 4.85% in 2024 [17]. Group 4: Potential Paths for Reform - One potential path for reform is the forced elimination of outdated production capacity through improved technical standards [18]. - Another approach could involve implementing a quota system, as seen in the refrigerant industry, which has led to reduced supply and increased prices [19][22]. Group 5: Investment Opportunities - The chemical sector is seen as a significant investment opportunity, particularly in areas with high industry concentration and severe overcapacity [26]. - The glycine phosphonate and organic silicon sectors are highlighted as potential beneficiaries of upcoming policy changes [27][29]. - The organic silicon market is expected to see a rebound due to strong domestic demand and a reduction in overseas capacity [30]. Group 6: Conclusion - Overall, the chemical industry is poised for a cyclical recovery, with low valuations and potential policy support making it a likely focus for A-share market investments [31].

Industry Overview Mid - view Events - In the production industry, attention should be paid to the advancement of artificial intelligence. After the release of the "Opinions on Deeply Implementing the 'Artificial Intelligence +' Action", Shanghai responded promptly by launching the project application for the 2025 Shanghai "Artificial Intelligence +" Action [1] - In the service industry, attention should be given to the new tax policy. The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration issued a notice on the tax policy for the operation and management of state - owned equity and cash income transferred to enrich the social security fund, exempting VAT on certain income from the investment of transferred state - owned equity and cash income, effective from April 1, 2024 [1] Upstream - In the black industry, wire rod prices declined [2] - In the chemical industry, PTA prices continued to fall [2] Midstream - In the chemical industry, the PX operating rate increased [3] - In the infrastructure sector, the asphalt operating rate slightly decreased [3] Downstream - In the real estate sector, the sales of commercial housing in second - and third - tier cities slightly increased [4] - In the service sector, the number of domestic flights decreased [4] Key Industry Price Indicators - Agricultural products: On September 2, the spot price of corn was 2301.4 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 0.19%; the spot price of eggs had a year - on - year decrease of 0.77%; the spot price of palm oil was 9492.0 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 1.51%; the spot price of cotton was 15414.3 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 0.54%; the average wholesale price of pork was 19.8 yuan/kg with a year - on - year decrease of 1.05% [38] - Non - ferrous metals: On September 2, the spot price of copper was 80130.0 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 0.62%; the spot price of zinc was 22132.0 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 0.65%; the spot price of aluminum was 20636.7 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 0.74%; the spot price of nickel was 124383.3 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 0.72% [38] - Ferrous metals: On September 2, the spot price of aluminum was 16800.0 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 0.30%; the spot price of rebar was 3186.0 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 1.88%; the spot price of iron ore was 22132.0 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 0.65% [38] - Others: On September 2, the spot price of WTI crude oil was 64.6 dollars/barrel with a year - on - year decrease of 0.26%; the spot price of Brent crude oil was 68.1 dollars/barrel with a year - on - year decrease of 1.08%; the spot price of liquefied natural gas was 3928.0 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 0.46%; the coal price was 782.0 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 0.13% [38]

需求端来看，五矿期货分析称，港口MTO利润延续改善但需求表现较弱，传统需求仍未有明显好转， 甲醇整体下游表现一般。 展望后市，宁证期货表示，国内甲醇开工高位上升，下游需求较稳，甲醇港口库存继续积累，9月预期 进口量维持高位。内地甲醇市场持稳，企业竞拍成交顺畅，港口甲醇市场基差维稳，商谈成交一般。预 计甲醇01合约短期震荡运行，下方支撑2370一线，建议观望或短线做多。 9月3日，国内期市能化板块涨跌不一。其中，甲醇期货盘面表现偏强，截至发稿主力合约报2386.00元/ 吨，震荡上行0.34%。 库存方面，据申银万国期货介绍，截至8月28日，沿海地区甲醇库存在129.95万吨（目前库存处于历史 偏高位置），相比8月21日上涨5.1万吨，涨幅为4.08%，同比上涨19.71%。 供应方面，瑞达期货（002961）指出，近期国内甲醇恢复涉及产能产出量多于检修、减产涉及产能损失 量，整体产量小幅增加。西北地区新一轮长约开始，车辆匹配节奏对提货稍有影响，叠加部分检修项目 恢复正常生产，上周内地企业库存水平有所增加。 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing active research in life sciences and the global wave of biotechnology revolution, which is accelerating integration into economic and social development, providing new solutions for major challenges such as health, climate change, resource security, and food security. The National Development and Reform Commission has issued the "14th Five-Year Plan for the Development of the Bioeconomy," indicating a trillion-yuan market potential in the bioeconomy sector [3][4]. Market Performance - The synthetic biology index, composed of 58 listed companies involved in synthetic biology and related technologies, rose by 8.25% to 1845.19 during the week of August 25-29, 2025. This performance outpaced the Shanghai Composite Index by 7.41% and the ChiNext Index by 0.51% [4][19]. - The overall performance of synthetic biology stocks met expectations, with an increase of 8.25%, ranking second among various sectors [19]. Company Developments - The report mentions several significant developments in the synthetic biology sector: - The first synthetic biology project in Ordos City, with an investment of 230 million yuan, aims to produce 4,000 tons of bio-based calcium propionate annually, positioning itself as the largest producer of clean label products globally [10]. - The successful trial of the world's first bio-based 1,5-pentanediol process by Seabear, achieving over 99.5% purity, which is significant for high-end cosmetics and biomedicine [26]. - A framework cooperation agreement for a 31 billion yuan green hydrogen methanol integrated project was signed in Duolun County, aiming to produce 200,000 tons of green hydrogen and 1 million tons of green methanol annually [26]. - The successful licensing of the SRJET bio-jet fuel production technology by Sinopec's research institute to Total Energy, marking its entry into the global market [27]. Financing Trends - The report notes an acceleration in financing for synthetic biology companies, with nearly a hundred companies completing new financing rounds since the beginning of 2025. Notable financing activities include: - Nanjing Batefly completing a round of financing to develop high-performance packaging solutions [34]. - Huaxi Biological's exclusive investment from CVC Fund for the commercialization of a new generation of pre-filled syringes [36]. Research Directions - The report outlines several innovative research directions: - Zhongke Guosheng's development of a bio-based aromatic polyamide fiber using FDCA, marking a breakthrough in the bio-based materials sector [38]. - Zhengtong Technology's new biodegradable polyester, which combines the biodegradability of aliphatic polyesters with the mechanical properties of aromatic polyesters, receiving national patent authorization [39].