证券代码：603010 证券简称：万盛股份 公告编号：2026-013 浙江万盛股份有限公司 浙江万盛股份有限公司董事会 | | 2025 年 1-12 月平均售价 | 2024 年 1-12 月平均售价 | 年度同 比变动 | 四季度 同比变 | 四季度 环比变 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主要产品 | （元/吨） | （元/吨） | 比率 | 动比率 | 动比率 | | | | | （%） | （%） | （%） | | 聚合物功能性助剂 | 16,585.38 | 16,340.84 | 1.50 | -15.54 | -8.97 | | 有机胺 | 25,693.42 | 21,700.95 | 18.40 | 13.22 | 1.41 | | 涂料助剂 | 10,134.10 | 10,795.81 | -6.13 | -3.51 | -5.92 | 主要产品 2025 年 1-12 月 产量（吨） 2025 年 1-12 月销 量（吨） 2025 年 1-12 月销售 金额（元） 聚合物功能性助剂 136,391.82 134,429.14 ...

Equity Market Review and Outlook - The core variable affecting the market remains the Middle East, with both short-term trading logic and long-term "stagflation risk" expectations dependent on whether the geopolitical conflict can be resolved quickly [1][5] - Until uncertainties in the geopolitical situation decrease or commodity price volatility declines, the market will continue to be impacted by event narratives and liquidity shocks, leading to a focus on long-term expectations [5][6] - A-shares are expected to maintain a volatile trend, with structural opportunities being more prominent than overall opportunities; recommended sectors include energy-related stocks (oil, green energy, coal, coal chemical), low valuation and low volatility stocks (state-owned banks, utilities), and sectors that can maintain high prosperity independent of geopolitical and oil price influences (energy storage, domestic AIDC) [1][5][6] Fixed Income Market Review and Outlook - The bond market showed significant differentiation between short and long ends, with the 1-year government bond yield decreasing by 2.00 basis points to 1.26%, while the 10-year and 30-year yields increased by 1.56 basis points to 1.83% and 2.16 basis points to 2.39%, respectively [2][7] - The current bond market is in a volatile state, with extreme risk aversion driving down short-end yields, while long-end yields are rising due to escalating geopolitical conflicts and heightened inflation expectations [7][8] - The market sentiment is cautious, with a focus on short-end credit products showing strong allocation value; however, long-end yields have limited downward momentum, and liquidity may face certain shocks as the quarter-end approaches [2][7] Market Performance - The A-share market experienced a volatile decline, with average daily trading volume at 22,091 billion, a decrease from the previous week; the ongoing disruption in the Strait of Hormuz has led to a significant drop in global risk assets [4][5] - Funds are shifting from macro-sensitive cyclical sectors to technology manufacturing sectors with independent growth logic, driven by multiple industry benefits such as the overseas GTC conference and price increases in cloud computing and storage products [4][5] - Resource cyclical sectors like non-ferrous metals and chemicals are under pressure, primarily due to external macroeconomic impacts, including rising oil prices and concerns over the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance [4][5]

I. Overall Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. II. Core Viewpoints - The current global market's core pricing line is affected by the geopolitical situation between the US and Iran, leading to a "Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD)" situation overseas, while in China, assets have a triple - safety premium. The core investment strategy in 2026 is defensive counter - attack, and blindly following the 2025 investment ideas will face significant risks [2]. - Various industries are influenced by the US - Iran conflict, Fed policies, and seasonal factors, with different trends and investment opportunities [2][5][7]. III. Summary by Industry 1. Financial Futures Macro - The US - Iran deadlock may enter a critical change period. The central bank will maintain liquidity, and the situation in Iran involves multiple measures and responses, including the threat to close the Strait of Hormuz [1]. - The global market is influenced by the US - Iran conflict, with the risk of secondary inflation from oil price shocks reversing global liquidity expectations. The Fed's policy path is changing, and A - shares are in a risk - release stage [2]. RMB Exchange Rate - After the global central bank meetings, the market's hawkish expectations have risen. The US dollar index may remain strong in the short - term, but its upward space is limited. The RMB exchange rate may fluctuate within a range [3]. - Short - term strategies suggest that export enterprises lock in forward exchange settlement at around 6.93, and import enterprises adopt a rolling purchase strategy at the 6.85 level [3]. Stock Index - The stock index was affected by external disturbances last week, with a decline in major indices. The short - term is expected to continue to adjust, but the long - term basis is strong [5]. Treasury Bonds - Last week, treasury bonds showed a bottom - hunting and rebounding trend, but weakened on Friday. The short - term strategy is grid operation, and low - position long positions can be sold at high prices [6]. 2. Commodities New Energy - **Carbonate Lithium**: The price of carbonate lithium futures decreased last week. It is expected to fluctuate widely between 120,000 - 150,000 yuan/ton in the short - term, with long - term demand support [13][14]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: The futures prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon decreased this week. The current market has a supply - demand imbalance, but the long - term development logic is clear [15][16]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: The price of aluminum is affected by geopolitics and concerns about economic recession and liquidity. It is expected to fluctuate and consolidate. Alumina has a mixed fundamental situation, and casting aluminum alloy follows the trend of aluminum [19][20]. - **Copper**: The copper price fell last week. In the short - term, it will continue to be weak, and long - term opportunities can be considered. Industrial customers can focus on low - price restocking, and speculative customers can use short - selling and long - buying strategies [21][24]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price has support at the lower end of the price range, but is affected by inventory and the macro - environment, and is expected to be weak in the short - term [26]. - **Nickel - Stainless Steel**: The prices of nickel and stainless steel fluctuated this week, following the macro - guidance. The fundamentals are in a game state, and the short - term trend is uncertain [27][28]. - **Tin**: The tin price is under pressure from both the macro - environment and fundamentals, with a short - term weak trend and a long - term upward trend [28][29]. - **Lead**: The lead price is expected to fluctuate and adjust [30]. 3. Oils and Fats, and Feeds Oilseeds - The external market of oilseeds fell, and the domestic market followed. The supply of imported soybeans is expected to increase, and the domestic soybean meal inventory is decreasing. The rapeseed meal has a demand recovery expectation, but also faces supply pressure [31]. - The strategy is to exit the positive spread between monthly contracts [31]. Oils - The supply pressure of Malaysian palm oil has eased, and the market is waiting for the progress of bio - fuel policies. The domestic oil inventory is different, and the short - term is expected to fluctuate [32]. 4. Energy and Oil and Gas SC - The oil price is oscillating at a high level, with upward driving factors due to the continuous escalation of the US - Iran conflict and the risk of the Strait of Hormuz [34][36]. Fuel Oil - The Asian fuel oil market has a short - term correction, but the supply gap will support the spot premium and refinery profits in the short - term [37]. Asphalt - The asphalt price is affected by geopolitical disturbances, with supply reduction and weak demand. The short - term is difficult to reverse, and investors should control positions and consider hedging strategies [38]. 5. Precious Metals Platinum & Palladium - The prices of platinum and palladium fell last week. The core drivers include Fed policies, geopolitical situations, and supply - side factors. The strategy is to be bullish in the long - term and pay attention to position control [40][44]. Gold & Silver - The prices of gold and silver fell due to the reversal of interest - rate hike expectations. The strategy is to be bullish in the long - term, and pay attention to support levels and risk factors [46][48]. 6. Chemicals Pulp - Offset Paper - The pulp spot price followed the futures price to rise. The short - term market is expected to be neutral. The offset paper futures are affected by pulp prices and are expected to fluctuate in a range [50][52]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - The prices of pure benzene and styrene follow the cost - end and are expected to be strong in the short - term, but the geopolitical situation is uncertain, and risks should be noted [53][54]. LPG - The LPG futures price rose, showing an internal - strong and external - weak, futures - strong and spot - weak pattern. The short - term is expected to be in a high - level shock, and the risk of price correction should be vigilant [55][57]. Methanol - The methanol futures price soared. The supply is affected by the Iranian situation, and the strategy is to consider the 5 - 6 reverse spread and 9 - 1 positive spread [58][59]. PP & Propylene - The prices of PP and propylene are expected to be strong in the short - term, with supply support and demand pressure [60][63]. Plastic - The plastic market has a supply - demand imbalance. The supply is expected to decrease, but the spot pressure is increasing. The short - term is expected to be strong if the conflict continues [64][65]. Rubber - The synthetic rubber price rose, and the natural rubber was boosted. The short - term is affected by geopolitical and macro - factors, with a long - term stable trend. Strategies include long - buying at low prices and arbitrage [67][69]. Glass & Soda Ash - Soda ash has high production and stable demand, with limited price space. Glass has a cold - repair expectation and high inventory, and the demand needs to be verified [70][72]. 7. Black Metals Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil - The steel price is supported by raw material costs, but is affected by inventory and demand. The short - term is expected to rebound, but the height is limited [73][74]. Iron Ore - The iron ore price is supported by cost and tight spot supply, with a near - strong and far - weak pattern. The strategy is to be long in the near - term and short in the far - term [77][79]. Ferrosilicon & Silicomanganese - The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are supported by costs, and the impact of the Australian hurricane on manganese ore needs to be noted [80][81]. 8. Agricultural and Soft Commodities Live Pigs - The live pig futures price fell. The current supply - demand pattern remains unchanged, and the strategy is to sell call options on the main contract [83]. Cotton - The cotton price is affected by geopolitical conflicts and import policies. The short - term has support, and the long - term demand is resilient [83][85]. Sugar - The sugar price is expected to be in a shock pattern in the short - term due to the geopolitical situation and cautious capital sentiment [86][87]. Eggs - The egg price rebounded. The short - term is expected to be stable with a narrow adjustment, and the strategy is to sell call options on the main contract [87]. Apples - The apple futures price is strong, driven by fundamentals and delivery logic. The 05 contract is expected to be strong in the short - term [91]. Peanuts - The peanut market is in a supply - demand weak situation. The price is affected by the macro - situation of the oils and fats and oilseeds sector [92][94]. Red Dates - The red date price is in a narrow - range shock, with limited driving factors and pressure on the upside [95].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company's performance is in line with expectations, achieving record sales for the year amidst geopolitical conflicts that may present new opportunities [1] - The company reported a total revenue of 3.508 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 11%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 736 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.9% [6] - The company has strong pricing power for its products and may benefit from order overflow due to geopolitical tensions affecting the supply chain [6] - The company is expanding its overseas presence and has made significant progress in obtaining certifications for its products, aiming to become a major player in the global lubricants additive market [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Projected total revenue for 2026 is 4.857 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 38.4% [5] - The forecasted net profit attributable to shareholders for 2026 is 1.094 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 48.6% [5] - The company maintains a strong gross margin of 36.6% for 2026, with a projected return on equity (ROE) of 24.4% [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company's performance is in line with expectations, achieving record sales for the year despite geopolitical conflicts that may present new opportunities [1] - The company reported a total revenue of 3.508 billion yuan for 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 11% and a net profit of 736 million yuan, reflecting a 2% increase year-on-year [6] - The company has strong pricing power for its products and may benefit from order overflow due to geopolitical tensions affecting the supply chain [6] - The company is expanding its overseas presence and has made significant progress in obtaining certifications for its products, aiming to become a major player in the global lubricants additive market [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Projected total revenue for 2026 is 4.857 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 38.4% [5] - The forecasted net profit for 2026 is 1.094 billion yuan, representing a 48.6% increase year-on-year [5] - The company’s gross margin is expected to be 36.6% in 2026, with a return on equity (ROE) of 24.4% [5] - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to be 13 for 2026, indicating a favorable valuation compared to historical averages [6]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【PVC 周报（PVC ）】 美伊冲突扰动供给，PVC 价格震荡走强 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2026-03-23 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 张国才 从业资格证号：F03133773 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 PVC:美伊冲突扰动供给， PVC价格震荡走强 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 偏多 | （1）本周国内PVC乙烯法工厂开始停产，供给压力开始缓解。（2）本周PVC生产企业产能利用率在80.12%环比下降1.23%，同比增加0.29%；其中电石 | | | | 法在84.71%环比增加1.79%，同比增加2.09%，乙烯法在69.24%环比下降8.36%，同比下降3.27%。（3）本周PVC生产企业检修损失量在5.09万吨，较上期 | | | | 增加1.52万吨。本周常规检修略有增加，检修损失量环比上周增加42.61%。（4 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view for styrene is "oscillating", and the trading strategy for the single - side is "bullish" [4] 2. Core View of the Report - In April, there is a co - existence of supply contraction expectations and downstream negative feedback in the styrene market. The styrene fundamentals strengthen in the face of production cuts, and the crude oil market runs strongly [4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Bullish. Although the spread between styrene and naphtha is about $300 and the spread between styrene and benzene is $280, the production economy of factories shrinks, and raw material shortages limit refinery choices [4] - **Demand**: Bullish. As of March 2, 2026, the total commercial inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu port samples was 303,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons from the previous inventory of 304,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.33%; compared with the inventory of 145,000 tons in the same period last year, the inventory increased by 158,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 108.97% [4] - **Inventory**: Neutral. As of March 16, 2026, the total inventory of styrene port samples in Jiangsu was 162,500 tons, an increase of 6,000 tons from the previous period, an increase of 3.83%. The commercial inventory was 82,500 tons, an increase of 10,200 tons from the previous period, an increase of 14.11% [4] - **Basis**: Bullish. The styrene basis strengthens. Due to the situation in the Middle East, the market purchasing is crazy because of the expected shortage and the force majeure announced by overseas refineries [4] - **Profit**: Neutral. The spread between styrene and naphtha shrinks to $300, and the spread between styrene and benzene is $260. The styrene profit shrinks significantly [4] - **Valuation**: Neutral. The market sentiment cools down. The purchase and export expectations of pure benzene and styrene increase, but the market purchasing willingness is low under high volatility [4] - **Macro Policy**: Bullish. The military action against Iran will "continue until necessary", but the war may end faster than expected [4] 3.2 Overview of Pure Benzene and Styrene Fundamentals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical disturbances cause crude oil prices to rise beyond market expectations [6] - **Styrene**: The strength of pure benzene causes the styrene profit to shrink. Overseas force majeure leads to a decline in styrene buying sentiment [15][27] - **Pure Benzene**: The fundamentals are in a crazy state, and the market performance is chaotic [38] 3.3 Polymer Demand Overview - **ABS**: The ABS production increases, and the inventory is expected to decline [52] - **PS**: The PS production profit is at a low level, and the enthusiasm for styrene procurement has cooled down [65] - **EPS**: The EPS price has increased significantly, and the inventory has decreased significantly [76] - **Aniline**: The aniline load and gross profit margin have rebounded [87] - **Phenol**: The relevant data shows the situation of phenol capacity utilization, maintenance loss, price, port inventory, and production profit [102][103] - **Adipic Acid**: The adipic acid profit has rebounded [109] - **Caprolactam**: The caprolactam inventory has declined [120] - **Household Appliance Production**: The production schedules of refrigerators, freezers, and household air - conditioners are presented [131][133]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the pure benzene in the energy and chemical industry is "oscillating bullish" [2] 2. Core View of the Report - The Middle East geopolitical situation has significantly escalated, causing high - level and volatile international crude oil prices. The previous expectation of reduced raw material input for pure benzene has led to an expected tightening of the supply side. Most major downstream products are in a good profit - making state. In the short term, the pure benzene price will oscillate at a high level under the influence of crude oil prices. Attention should be paid to the development of the Middle East geopolitical situation [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Market Review - On Friday, the price of the main contract futures BZ2605 rose by 217 yuan to 8481 yuan/ton. The spot price in the mainstream area of East China was 8140 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 210 yuan), and the spot price in Shandong was 7751 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 75 yuan). In terms of positions, long positions increased by 441 lots to 17,800 lots, and short positions increased by 256 lots to 19,200 lots [2] 3.2 Important Information - **Supply**: In February, the domestic pure benzene production was 1.8591 million tons, a decrease of 87,300 tons from the previous month and an increase of 138,500 tons from the same month last year [2] - **Inventory**: On March 16, 2026, the total commercial inventory of pure benzene ports in Jiangsu was 288,000 tons, a decrease of 14,000 tons from the previous inventory of 302,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.6%; compared with the inventory of 135,000 tons in the same period last year, the inventory increased by 153,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 113.33%. From March 9th to March 15th, the incomplete statistics showed that the arrival was 44,000 tons and the pick - up was about 58,000 tons. During the period, among the statistical storage areas, 3 storage areas decreased, 1 increased, and 3 remained stable [2] - **Price Adjustment**: Sinopec's chemical sales raised the listed price of pure benzene by 400 yuan/ton. The companies in East China, North China, South China, and Central China along the Yangtze River all implemented 8400 yuan/ton, which has been officially implemented since March 12th [2] - **Demand**: The operating rate of styrene was 71.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.3%; the operating rate of phenol was 87%, a month - on - month decrease of 2%; the operating rate of caprolactam was 74.5%, unchanged from the previous month; the operating rate of aniline was 89%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.3%; the operating rate of adipic acid was 69%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.7% [2] - **International Oil Price**: The Middle East situation has led to significant production cuts in multiple oil - producing countries, and there are reports that the US may send ground troops, increasing supply risks and causing international oil prices to rise. The NYMEX crude oil futures 04 contract rose 2.18 dollars/barrel to 98.32 dollars/barrel, a month - on - month increase of 2.27%; the ICE Brent crude oil futures 05 contract rose 3.54 dollars/barrel to 112.19 dollars/barrel, a month - on - month increase of 3.26%. The Chinese INE crude oil futures 2605 contract fell 27 to 776.4 yuan/barrel and rose 26.4 to 802.8 yuan/barrel at night [2] 3.3 Market Logic - The sharp escalation of the Middle East geopolitical situation has caused high - level and volatile international crude oil prices. The previous expectation of reduced raw material input for pure benzene has led to an expected tightening of the supply side. Most major downstream products such as styrene, caprolactam, and aniline are in a good profit - making state. In the short term, the pure benzene price will oscillate at a high level under the influence of crude oil prices [2] 3.4 Trading Strategy - The trading strategy is to wait and see or do short - term long [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints - The current macro data remains stable, but the macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened. The monetary policy is expected to remain loose. The bond market, stock index, precious metals, and various commodity futures markets are affected by factors such as the Iran - US conflict, supply - demand relationships, and cost changes, with different trends and investment suggestions. [6][10][12] Summary by Directory Treasury Bonds - Last trading day, treasury futures closed down across the board. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts fell 0.42%, 0.09%, 0.06%, and 0.01% respectively. The 1 - year and 5 - year - plus LPR on March 20, 2026, were 3.0% and 3.5% respectively. The US is considering the next - stage plan and possible peace talks with Iran. The market is expected to face pressure, and caution is advised. [5][6] Stock Index - Last trading day, stock index futures showed mixed results. The main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM fell 0.28%, 0.95%, 1.16%, and 1.26% respectively. With weak domestic economic recovery momentum, low corporate profit growth, and low asset valuation, the policy environment is favorable. However, due to the uncertainty of the Iran situation, the market volatility is expected to increase, and it is advisable to wait on the sidelines. [8][10] Precious Metals - Last trading day, the main contracts of gold and silver fell 2.15% and 2.00% respectively. The "anti - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends are beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold, but due to the previous sharp rise and the uncertainty of the Iran situation, the market volatility is expected to increase, and it is advisable to stay on the sidelines. [12] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Last trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures slightly corrected. The short - term Middle - East geopolitical conflict may affect sentiment, while the medium - term price is determined by supply - demand. The demand for rebar is still in a downward trend, but the supply pressure has eased. The price may rebound but with limited space. The trend of hot - rolled coil is expected to be similar. Investors can look for low - position long opportunities. [14] Iron Ore - Last trading day, iron ore futures fluctuated. The short - term Middle - East conflict may affect sentiment, and the demand is expected to expand after the end of key meetings, but the supply is abundant. The price is expected to rebound in the short - term, and investors can look for low - position long opportunities. [16] Coking Coal and Coke - Last trading day, coking coal and coke futures fluctuated. The short - term Middle - East conflict may affect sentiment. The supply of coking coal may increase, and the demand is weak. The supply of coke is stable, and the demand is expected to increase. The price is in a volatile pattern, and investors can look for low - position buy opportunities. [17] Ferroalloys - Last trading day, the main contracts of manganese silicon and silicon iron rose 3.46% and 1.58% respectively. The cost is in a narrow - range upward trend, the supply is loose, and the demand is weak. After a rapid short - term price rebound, investors can consider taking long - position profit - taking opportunities. [19][20] Crude Oil - Last trading day, INE crude oil fell sharply due to the easing of the US - Israel - Iran war. Speculators increased their net long positions, and the US energy companies reduced the number of oil and gas rigs. The US approved the relaxation of sanctions on Iranian oil products. The price may be supported, but due to the change in the war situation, it is advisable to wait on the sidelines. [21][22] Polyolefins - Last trading day, the PP and LLDPE markets in Hangzhou and Yuyao declined. Affected by the geopolitical crisis, the cost pressure increased, the industry's operating rate decreased, and the supply decreased. The downstream demand increased slightly. It is necessary to operate with caution due to geopolitical influence, and it is advisable to wait on the sidelines. [24] Synthetic Rubber - Last trading day, the main contract of synthetic rubber rose 1.82%. The current price is mainly supported by cost and is expected to maintain a relatively strong volatile trend. It is necessary to pay attention to device maintenance, crude oil price, and tire export orders. [26][28] Natural Rubber - Last trading day, the main contracts of natural rubber and 20 - number rubber fell. The market is in a game between the cost of synthetic rubber pushed up by the Middle - East conflict and the approaching domestic tapping season and inventory pressure. It is expected to be in a wide - range volatile trend. [29][30] PVC - Last trading day, the PVC main contract fell during the day and rose at night. The market is in a game between the energy and raw material supply concerns caused by the overseas conflict, the spring demand, and high inventory. The price is expected to be in a relatively strong volatile trend, but the upside is restricted by high inventory. [31][33] Urea - Last trading day, the urea main contract fell. The current contradiction lies between high supply and policy ceiling. The price is expected to be in a weak - volatile trend, but the downside is limited due to cost support and approaching demand season. [34][35] PX - Last trading day, the PX2605 main contract fluctuated. The PXN spread and short - process profit are compressed, the supply is slightly tight, and the demand is gradually recovering. Affected by the uncertain geopolitical situation, the price may be volatile and may have a correction risk. It is necessary to operate with caution. [36][37] PTA - Last trading day, the PTA2605 main contract fluctuated. The processing fee has adjusted, the demand from downstream is weak, and the price is mainly affected by the change in the cost end. Due to the uncertainty of the geopolitical situation, it is advisable to operate with caution. [38] Ethylene Glycol - Last trading day, the ethylene glycol main contract rose. The supply decreased slightly, the inventory decreased, the demand from downstream increased, and the price is expected to be stronger than other polyester varieties in the short - term. However, due to the uncertainty of the geopolitical situation, it is necessary to pay attention to the situation of the Strait and the progress of the spring inspection. [39][40] Short - Fiber - Last trading day, the short - fiber 2606 main contract fluctuated. The supply decreased slightly, the demand from downstream is weak, and the price is mainly affected by the cost end. It is necessary to pay attention to the geopolitical situation, device dynamics, and downstream factory resumption progress. [41] Bottle Chips - Last trading day, the bottle chips 2605 main contract fell sharply. The cost support weakened, the demand from downstream is weak, and due to the changeable Middle - East situation, the raw material price may fluctuate greatly. It is advisable to participate with caution. [42][43] Soda Ash - Last trading day, the main contract of soda ash fell. The supply remains high, the inventory decreased slightly, and the demand from downstream is weak. The price is expected to be in a short - term volatile adjustment. [44][45] Glass - Last trading day, the glass main contract fell. The production lines decreased, the inventory decreased slowly, the demand from downstream is weak, and the cost pressure remains. The price is expected to be volatile. [46] Caustic Soda - Last trading day, the caustic soda main contract rose. The supply decreased slightly, the demand from downstream is good, and the price of 50% caustic soda may rise. It is necessary to pay attention to overseas device dynamics and export orders. [47][48] Pulp - Last trading day, the pulp main contract rose. The port inventory decreased, the domestic supply increased slightly, the demand from downstream is weak, and the price of pulp is expected to be supported. The risk of coniferous pulp fluctuation is relatively high, while broad - leaf pulp is relatively stable. [49][50] Lithium Carbonate - Last trading day, the lithium carbonate main contract fell. Affected by the US - Iran conflict and resource nationalism in Africa, the supply of lithium ore may be in a tight balance, the demand from downstream is improving, and the inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to have strong support below, but the short - term volatility may increase. [51] Copper - Last trading day, the Shanghai copper main contract fell. Affected by the geopolitical situation, the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation was almost eliminated, and the dollar index rose. The supply of copper is tight, the demand is structurally growing, and the inventory is high. The price is expected to be in a weak - volatile trend with a bottom. [52][53] Aluminum - Last trading day, the Shanghai aluminum and alumina main contracts fell. Alumina is in a cost - driven rebound, and electrolytic aluminum is under pressure due to the game between strong expectation and weak reality. The price of alumina may be in a volatile adjustment, and the price of electrolytic aluminum is expected to be in a weak - volatile trend with a bottom. [54][55] Zinc - Last trading day, the Shanghai zinc main contract rose slightly. The supply of zinc is increasing, the demand from the real - estate sector is weak, and affected by the Middle - East situation and the strong dollar, the price is expected to be under pressure. [56][57] Lead - Last trading day, the Shanghai lead main contract rose slightly. The supply of lead is supported in the short - term, the demand is weak, and affected by the macro pressure on the non - ferrous sector, the price is expected to be in a weak - volatile trend. [58][59] Tin - Last trading day, the Shanghai tin main contract rose. Affected by the US - Iran conflict, the price may be volatile. The supply of tin is slightly eased, the demand is supported by the emerging field, and the inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to have support below, but it is necessary to control risks due to the uncertainty of the overseas situation. [60] Nickel - Last trading day, the Shanghai nickel main contract rose. Affected by the US - Iran conflict, the price may be volatile. The supply of nickel ore may be tight, the cost may rise, the demand from downstream is weak, and the inventory is relatively high. The price of primary nickel is in an oversupply situation, and it is necessary to pay attention to Indonesian policies and macro - events. [61][62] Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - Last trading day, the soybean meal main contract fell, and the soybean oil main contract rose slightly. Brazilian soybean harvest is approaching 60%, and the dollar is rising, which suppresses the price of soybeans. The short - term supply of soybeans may be tight, and the medium - term supply is expected to be relatively loose. It is advisable to wait and see due to the uncertainty of the Middle - East conflict. [63][64] Palm Oil - The Malaysian palm oil market was closed on March 20 and 23, and will resume trading on March 24. The export volume of palm oil products increased from March 1 - 20, and the domestic import volume increased. The inventory is at a relatively high level in the past 7 years. It is advisable to consider reducing or closing long positions. [65][66] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed is oscillating near the key support level. The domestic import volume of rapeseed, rapeseed oil, and rapeseed meal is large. The inventory of rapeseed is at a low level in the past 7 years, the inventory of rapeseed meal is at a high level, and the inventory of rapeseed oil is at a medium level. It is advisable to wait and see. [67] Cotton - Last trading day, domestic Zheng cotton fell, and the overseas cotton market was weak. The domestic cotton import volume increased in 2026, and the issuance of the sliding - scale quota increased and was advanced, which is a short - term negative factor. However, the global cotton production is expected to decrease in the new year, and the medium - and long - term price is expected to be strong. [68][70] Sugar - Last trading day, domestic Zheng sugar rebounded slightly, and the overseas raw sugar rose. The domestic sugar import volume increased, the production is expected to increase, and the industrial inventory is higher. The increase in oil price will change the sugar - making ratio in Brazil's new season, and the medium - and long - term sugar price bottom is expected to rise. [71][73] Apples - Last trading day, apple futures were strong. As the Tomb - Sweeping Festival stocking is in full swing, the demand in the sales area is increasing, and the inventory is decreasing. The apple market is expected to maintain a stable - to - strong trend. It is necessary to pay attention to the inventory - removal rate and the weather during the flowering period. [74][76] Hogs - Last trading day, the main contract of hogs fell. The supply of hogs is abundant, the demand is weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate slightly in the short - term. The government has started the purchase - storage mechanism, but the support is insufficient. It is advisable to hold short positions. [77] Eggs - Last trading day, the main contract of eggs rose. The cost of eggs is rising, the inventory of laying hens is at a high level in the past 10 years, and the supply in March is expected to remain high. It is advisable to gradually take profit on short positions in the far - month contracts. [78][79] Corn and Starch - Last trading day, the corn and corn - starch main contracts rose. The northern port inventory is low, the demand from feed enterprises is increasing, and the price is strong. The South American corn planting is progressing smoothly, and the dollar is rising, which brings pressure. The domestic corn supply and demand are basically balanced, and the demand for corn starch is slightly improving. It is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of the far - month out - of - the - money put option when the price rises sharply. [80][82] Logs - Last trading day, the main contract of logs rose. The shipment of New Zealand logs to China increased, the downstream demand improved, and the terminal consumption is polarized. The cost pressure increased, and the price is expected to be in a high - level volatile trend. It is necessary to pay attention to the overseas quotation, shipment dynamics, and downstream consumption. [83][85]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the macro - logic continued to dominate the market. With the war escalating and the Fed remaining hawkish, most commodities except a few energy - chemical products declined. Next week, the war situation will still significantly impact the market. The performance of commodities is expected to be energy and chemicals > agricultural products > ferrous metals > precious metals and non - ferrous metals. Given the high volatility of commodities, it is recommended to wait and see until the situation becomes clear [2][18][19]. Summary According to the Directory 1. One - Week Review and Views 1.1 One - Week Review: Commodity Trends Diverged, Only Some Energy - Chemical Products Performed Strongly - From March 16th to 22nd, commodity trends diverged. Only some energy - chemical products were strong. In terms of sectors: coal chemical industry > energy > oil chemical industry > ferrous metals > agricultural products > non - ferrous metals > precious metals. In the first half of the week, the market fluctuated narrowly. In the second half, the Fed remained unchanged, and Powell's hawkish statement led to a downward revision of interest - rate cut expectations. The attack on Iranian oil and gas facilities by Israel on Thursday caused oil and chemical prices to rise, but they slightly declined on Friday [1][11]. 1.2 Next - Week Outlook: The War Situation is Complex, It is Recommended to Wait and See Cautiously - The war shows an escalating trend, with the Fed remaining hawkish. Most commodities except energy - chemical products declined. Next week, the arrival of the US amphibious landing force in the Middle East may lead to further war escalation, but there are also signs of "peace talks". As long as the strait is not unsealed, there will be a supply - demand gap in the energy market, and energy - chemical products have a basis for price increase. However, due to high volatility, it is recommended to wait and see [2][18][19]. 2. Exchange Rate and Interest Rate Data Tracking - The US dollar index weakened, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield rose. As of March 20th, the US dollar index fell 0.99% to 99.5100, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield rose 11BP to 4.39%. The attack on Iranian oil and gas facilities and high US PPI have raised inflation concerns. The Fed remained unchanged, with some hawkish statements. The weakening of the US dollar index may be due to concerns about the US getting into a war quagmire and future stagflation [26][27]. 3. Upstream Raw Material Prices - The Iran - US war continues, and with the attack on Iranian energy facilities, the shipping in the Strait of Hormuz has not been substantially restored, causing oil prices to rise. The increase in oil prices and downstream restocking demand are positive for coking coal, but due to loose domestic supply and weak terminal demand, coking coal prices are generally fluctuating [30]. 4. High - Frequency Production - End Data - Most commodity production - end data improved this week, except for the slight decline in PE capacity utilization, and production indicators of glass and soda ash. The year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value from January to February was 6.3%, exceeding market expectations [33]. 5. High - Frequency Inventory - End Data - Gold and silver inventories continued to decline slightly. Most industrial product inventories decreased, but the inventories of copper, aluminum, PTA, etc. continued to accumulate, and the inventory pressure of live pigs was relatively high [53]. 6. High - Frequency Demand - End Data - Most real - estate high - frequency indicators improved this week, such as the increase in the sales area of second - hand houses in 16 cities and the sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities. The government bond issuance and net financing scale increased significantly. Terminal demand, including subway passenger volume, flight execution rate, apparent consumption of rebar, and power consumption of 25 provinces' power plants, is improving [75][76]. 7. Key Commodity Basis - The report provides data on the basis of key commodities such as gold, copper, aluminum, rebar, etc., but specific analysis is not detailed in the provided text [90]. 8. Commodity Price Ratios - The report presents various commodity price ratios, including the gold - silver ratio, gold - copper ratio, etc., but no in - depth analysis is provided [101]. 9. Summary and Outlook - The performance of commodities is expected to be energy and chemicals > agricultural products > ferrous metals > non - ferrous metals and precious metals. Due to the unpredictable war situation, it is recommended to wait and see [3][110].