↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 聪明投资者 来源：雪球 " 在风浪中前行的人 ， 先要把自己 ' 绑在桅杆上 ' 。 " 它的投资决策 ， 正在深刻影响着全球企业行为 。 但反过来 ， 其庞大的身形以及与全球经济休戚与共的投资触角 ， 也很难避开起于微末的 " 蝴 蝶翅膀 " ， 更别说频率提升的各种巨浪 。 坦根说 ， 当市场剧烈波动时 ， 这只基金按照预设机制自动再平衡 ： 卖出债券 、 买入股票 。 不是因为判断 ， 而是因为规则 。 正是这套纪律 ， 使基金在过去三十年中跨越无数不确定性 ， 实现了年化6%–7%的复合回报 。 考虑到这是一只穿越世代的养老基金 ， 这样复利 效果还是惊人的 。 坦根还直言 ， " 假设你在一年前告诉我 ， 一年后的世界会出现这些关税 、 这里发生冲突 、 那里局势恶化 ， 然后让我基于这些信息 ， 对一个 包含科技龙头 、 工程公司和消费品公司的投资组合做出调整 …… 最可能的结果只会是 ： 非常糟糕 。 战术性的判断真的极其困难 。 " 目前挪威央行主权基金70%配置 ...

来源：无冕财经 //// 在给员工发钱这件事上，国内的"霸总"们已经卷起来了。 前有河南矿山老板崔培军，数千万现金摆满几十米长桌，员工数多少拿多少（详见最华人此前推送→最喜欢"撒钱"的老板，为什么都在河南？）； 后有辽宁方大集团老板方威，上亿现金堆成墙，一捆捆百元大钞全部发给公司员工。 ▲辽宁方大集团"现金墙" 据统计，近十年来，辽宁方大集团已累计给员工发放现金红包近40亿元，"现金墙"几乎成了公司每年的传统。 而坚持给员工"撒钱"的方威，财富不减反增，从2024年的405亿元，涨到了2025年的525亿元，在东北三省企业家中排名第一。 这位豪爽的东北汉子，坚信财散人聚。他的这座"现金墙"，堪称凝聚人心的强大法宝—— 当几亿现金毫无修饰地堆在你面前时，任何复杂的企业文化和精美的宣传PPT，都显得是那样得苍白无力。 他不画大饼、不PUA，只用一把把真金白银告诉员工："跟着我，有肉吃。" 给员工"发汽车" 2021年，辽宁方大集团斥巨资410亿元，接手了破产重整的海航航空，方威由此成为海航的实际控制人。 他用不到3个月的时间，还清了所有员工的欠薪，并给6万多名员工每人发了5000块红包，总计3亿多元。 员工士气大 ...

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley increased its stake in Zai Lab (09688) by acquiring 1,920,096 shares at a price of HKD 13.3426 per share, totaling approximately HKD 25.6191 million [1] - Following the acquisition, Morgan Stanley's total shareholding in Zai Lab reached approximately 56,470,300 shares, representing a stake of 5.04% [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley increased its stake in Zai Lab (09688) by acquiring 1,920,096 shares at a price of HKD 13.3426 per share, totaling approximately HKD 25.6191 million, raising its ownership to about 56,470,300 shares, which represents 5.04% of the company [1] Group 1 - Morgan Stanley's recent acquisition indicates a positive outlook on Zai Lab's potential growth and market position [1] - The total investment made by Morgan Stanley in this transaction is approximately HKD 25.6191 million [1] - Following the purchase, Morgan Stanley's total shareholding in Zai Lab is now approximately 56,470,300 shares [1] Group 2 - The per-share purchase price of HKD 13.3426 reflects the current valuation of Zai Lab in the market [1] - The increase in ownership percentage to 5.04% may influence market perception and investor confidence in Zai Lab [1] - This transaction highlights the ongoing interest from institutional investors in Zai Lab's stock [1]

Core Insights - The report highlights that 2026 marks the beginning of China's "14th Five-Year Plan," emphasizing the need for high-quality economic development amid a global new order [1][3] Group 1: Macro Core - Eight Balances - The essence of China's high-quality transformation is a "balance art" that requires precise understanding of multiple relationships [3] - Industry balance requires managing "upgrade promotion" and "overcapacity prevention," particularly in sectors like new energy vehicles and batteries [5] - Market balance involves navigating "internal circulation" and "external circulation," with a focus on enhancing technological strength while benefiting trade partners [5] - Development dynamics must address the contrast between "high resilience" and "low confidence," necessitating strengthened social security and market confidence [5] - Technology and innovation must balance "promoting technology" with "preventing internal competition," as well as the rapid advancement of AI against slower implementation processes [5] Group 2: Key Industry Trends - Consumer Goods, Retail, and Health - The consumer goods and retail sector is transitioning from "market share competition" to "value creation," focusing on user lifecycle value rather than mere reach [6] - Emotional resonance is becoming a core competitive advantage in domestic consumption, with consumers seeking products that provide emotional experiences [8] - Channel transformation is marked by fragmentation and differentiation, with traditional channels declining and new formats like snack stores and instant retail rising [8] - E-commerce is evolving towards meticulous management of existing customers, with a shift from traffic management to user management [8] - Brand upgrades are driven by original technological innovation, with companies investing over 5% of revenue in R&D seeing significantly higher gross margins [9] - The health sector is experiencing dual narratives of increased regulation and innovation, driven by policy adjustments and evolving consumer demands [11] - The healthcare policy is focused on "high-quality development," with reforms in payment methods pushing for cost optimization and service efficiency [11] - Demand segmentation is leading to a rise in proactive health management, with an increasing focus on personalized solutions across the health lifecycle [11] Group 3: Common Core Trends - AI and Internationalization - AI is transitioning from a "follower" to a "leader," with value realization becoming crucial as it penetrates core business functions [13] - The internationalization of Chinese enterprises is shifting from "scale expansion" to "high-quality globalization," emphasizing brand and value chain development [14] - Successful internationalization requires leveraging local advantages in supply chain resilience and cost efficiency while adapting to regional market demands [14]

Core Viewpoint - The annual Feng Shui guide by Citic Securities indicates a positive outlook for the Hang Seng Index in the Year of the Fire Horse, suggesting a stable upward trend despite potential initial declines in early 2024 [1]. Market Outlook - The Hang Seng Index is expected to experience stable growth, having shown positive performance in three out of the last four Horse years [1]. - A forecasted initial decline is anticipated at the beginning of the year, with a gradual recovery expected after April [1]. - The second half of the year is predicted to exhibit a "two steps forward, one step back" pattern, with peak performance expected between November and early December, followed by a slight softening before a year-end rebound [1]. Sector Analysis - Industries associated with Wood, such as furniture, herbal products, and pharmaceuticals, are expected to thrive in the Year of the Horse [1]. - Fire-related sectors, including telecommunications and energy, are also anticipated to benefit from favorable conditions [1]. - The financial products sector, categorized under Metal, is recommended for focused attention throughout the year [1]. - The real estate sector, associated with Earth, is expected to struggle to gain momentum [1]. - The Water element is predicted to be the weakest, leading to stagnation in the shipping industry and challenges for the tourism sector [1].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has entered a phase of fluctuation and adjustment after a continuous rise at the beginning of the year, with popular sectors like commercial aerospace, gold, and silver also experiencing corrections. A balanced investment strategy across different industries is recommended to capture opportunities and mitigate risks associated with concentrated investments [1][7]. Investment Strategy - The newly issued fund, Invesco Great Wall Smart Mixed Fund (code: 026709), is managed by Guo Lin, a member of the Invesco Great Wall Technology Legion, who emphasizes a growth-oriented investment style with balanced allocations across various sectors [1][3]. - Guo Lin's investment philosophy focuses on "trends, timing, and cost," seeking to identify sub-industries with mid-term growth potential by analyzing industry policies, technological innovations, and supply-demand changes [3][9]. Portfolio Composition - In Guo Lin's managed funds, over 50% of the holdings are in growth-style stocks, primarily concentrated in TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), with additional allocations in non-ferrous metals, pharmaceuticals, military, and new consumption sectors [4][10]. - The fund has shown strong performance, with returns of 54.77% and 98.12% over the past 1 and 2 years, respectively, significantly outperforming the benchmark [10]. Market Outlook - The A-share market is currently fluctuating around the 4000-point mark, with expectations of increased trading volume and active performance in growth sectors due to a favorable liquidity environment [5][11]. - Guo Lin suggests that the first quarter is an opportune time for stock selection, as many companies will provide clearer guidance for the new year, and the market is expected to undergo differentiation after an active investment phase [12]. Fee Structure - The Invesco Great Wall Smart Mixed Fund employs a floating fee structure linked to excess returns, aligning the interests of the fund manager with those of investors and promoting a focus on sustainable long-term performance [6][12].

Group 1: Public Fund Industry - In 2026, public fund companies showed strong enthusiasm for self-purchase, with 24 companies implementing self-purchases totaling 406 million yuan, over 80% of which was directed towards equity funds [1] - Among the self-purchases, stock funds received 100 million yuan and mixed funds received 248 million yuan, while bond funds received 30 million yuan [1] - Ruifeng Fund led the self-purchase with 100 million yuan, while several other companies, including GF Fund and China Merchants Fund, each self-purchased 20 million yuan [1] Group 2: Payment Industry - The number of third-party payment licenses is continuously decreasing, with the first company, Henan Jubao Payment, exiting the market in 2026 [2] - The decline in payment institutions is attributed to structural reshuffling and regulatory upgrades within the industry [2] - Traditional payment businesses are under pressure, with many companies reporting declines in net profit after excluding non-recurring gains, prompting a need for transformation towards cross-border payments and AI integration [2] Group 3: Refrigerant Industry - The refrigerant market remains strong despite being in the traditional off-season, with prices for R32 and R134a increasing by approximately 45% and 32% year-on-year, respectively [2] - The industry is expected to see long-term price increases due to strict global supply constraints and growing downstream demand [2] - Major companies are primarily executing long-term contracts, but market prices are expected to exceed contract prices, indicating a robust pricing environment [2] Group 4: Smartphone Market in India - The Indian smartphone market saw a 1% year-on-year increase in shipments in 2025, with sales revenue growing by 8% due to a shift towards high-end devices [3] - However, a single-digit decline in shipments is anticipated for 2026, particularly in the segment priced below 15,000 Indian Rupees, due to rising costs of components [3] - The average selling price (ASP) is expected to increase by 5%-7% as major OEMs focus on high-end strategies [3] Group 5: Nanobody Research - Research indicates that nanobodies extracted from llamas show potential in treating various diseases, including depression, prompting significant investment from pharmaceutical companies [4] - The development of next-generation nanobody drugs is seen as a breakthrough in precision medicine [4] Group 6: Cancer Burden Quantification - The IARC and WHO quantified the global burden of preventable cancers, revealing that nearly 40% of new cancer cases in 2022 were linked to modifiable risk factors [4] - The findings emphasize the importance of reducing smoking, infections, and alcohol consumption in cancer prevention efforts [4] Group 7: PayPal's Financial Performance - PayPal's fourth-quarter earnings and revenue fell short of expectations, leading to a significant drop in stock price and a change in CEO [5] - The company reported earnings of $1.23 per share and total revenue of $8.68 billion, both below analyst forecasts [5] Group 8: Tianqi Lithium Industry - Tianqi Lithium suspended trading in Hong Kong as it plans to dispose of part of its stake in SQM, with a maximum of 3.566 million A shares to be sold [6] - The company has already disposed of 748,500 B shares, and as of the announcement date, it holds 62.556 million A shares, representing 21.90% of SQM's total shares [6] Group 9: Corporate Governance Issues - Gaoxin Retail announced difficulties in contacting its CEO, but the board believes this will not significantly impact operations [7] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange issued a regulatory warning to Pengxin Resources for failing to appoint a board secretary, which has been vacant since January 2022 [8]

【重要事项】 容大感光：首条高端感光线路干膜光刻胶生产线有望2026年下半年试生产 芯能科技：正在开展太空光伏（核心股）组件生产所需资源分析评估及可行性研究 嘉事堂：控股股东将变更为同仁堂集团，实控人变更为北京市国资委，股票复牌 凯龙高科：拟购买金旺达70%股权，股票复牌，金旺达主营精密传动部件 【投资经营】 苏州高新：参股企业苏高新创投（核心股）通过基金间接参与投资了银河通用机器人（核心股） 旺能环境：拟投资不超过12亿元在乌兹别克斯坦建设垃圾焚烧发电厂 富临精工：与宁德时代共同对子公司江西升华增资扩股 一汽解放：拟使用不超过100亿元自有资金进行委托理财 韩建河山：拟收购兴福新材99.9978%股份，新增PEEK业务 【签约合作】 鸿富瀚：与广东全象签署4.8亿元合同，将提供机器人（核心股）等产品 【增持回购】 宁德时代：截至1月31日已累计回购1599.08万股A股股份，成交总金额为43.86亿元 贵州茅台：截至2026年1月底已累计回购股份41.69万股，已支付的总金额为5.71亿元 兴业银锡：董事、副总裁兼董事会秘书孙凯2月3日增持4万股 股票频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 责任编辑：栎树 ...

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has reduced its stake in Kelaiying (06821) by 7800 shares at a price of HKD 80.8366 per share, totaling approximately HKD 630,500, resulting in a new holding of about 1.6627 million shares, representing 5.97% of the company [1]. Group 1 - On January 28, Morgan Stanley sold 0.78 million shares of Kelaiying [1]. - The sale price per share was HKD 80.8366 [1]. - The total amount from the sale was approximately HKD 630,500 [1]. Group 2 - After the reduction, Morgan Stanley's remaining shares in Kelaiying are approximately 1.6627 million [1]. - The new holding percentage of Morgan Stanley in Kelaiying is 5.97% [1].