1月26日，上海建工（SH600170，股价2.98元，市值265亿元）发布《2025年年度业绩预减公 告》，预计全年归属于母公司所有者的净利润为10亿元至12亿元，同比减少44.6%至53.9%。公司称， 受固定资产投资规模收缩、结构调整等因素影响，新签合同额及在建工程规模不及预期，产值转化效率 下降，导致营收与利润双下滑。 重大项目方面，公司全年中标5亿元以上项目66项，合计608.54亿元，其中10亿元以上项目18项， 合计263.80亿元，主要集中于上海东方枢纽、南北通道、金桥南区等城市核心工程。 行业整体承压，龙头企业分化加剧 华源证券研报显示，2025年建筑行业新签订单整体呈现"央企稳、地方分化、海外偏强、细分制造 相对稳健"的特征。建筑央企新签订单金额依旧保持高位，中国建筑、中国中铁、中国电建、中国能建 分别实现新签4.15万亿元、2.75万亿元、1.33万亿元和1.45万亿元，同比增速在1%~5%区间，整体表现 以稳为主。地方国企分化更为明显，上海建工、陕建股份、浦东建设新签合同金额同比分别下降35%、 25%、23%，反映区域工程需求与项目释放节奏仍承压。隧道股份新中标订单同比基本持平，而四 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Hongrun Construction, focuses on infrastructure construction, primarily in high-technical municipal projects such as bridges, tunnels, and rail transit [1] Group 1: Business Operations - The company is actively expanding into water conservancy projects, leveraging the successful bid for the Majing Port Hub project [1] - The company's revenue from its new energy business has shown growth and achieved stable profitability, which helps the company manage cyclical fluctuations in the construction industry [1]

Core Viewpoint - The German business climate index remains unchanged at 87.6 points in January, marking the lowest level since May 2025, indicating a lack of growth momentum in the German economy [1] Group 1: Business Climate Index - The business climate index for Germany is at 87.6 points, unchanged month-on-month [1] - This index is at its lowest level since May 2025 [1] Group 2: Sector Performance - Among the four components of the business climate index, only the services sector saw a month-on-month decline, while manufacturing, construction, and trade indicators showed improvements [1] - Manufacturing firms have improved their future business expectations, although capacity utilization remains significantly below long-term averages [1] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The director of the Munich Economic Institute, Clemens Fuest, stated that the German economy still lacks growth momentum [1] - Ongoing geopolitical tensions and U.S. tariff policies complicate the economic outlook for Germany, according to ING's head of macro research, Carsten Brzeski [1]

格隆汇1月26日丨均安控股(01559.HK)公告，公司建议按于记录日期(假设于记录日期或前已发行股份数 目并无变动)每持有两(2)股股份获配发一(1)股供股股份的基准，透过供股方式按每股供股股份0.07港元 的认购价向合资格股东发行最多934,579,981股供股股份，以筹集最多约6542万港元(扣除开支前)。供股 仅向合资格股东提呈。 扣除相关开支后，供股所得款项净额估计最多约为6362万港元(假设于记录日期或前已发行股份数目并 无变动)。公司拟将所得款项净额(i)约70.7%用于偿还集团负债；(ii)约15.7%用于发展集团现有业务(包括 用作集团新建筑项目的营运资本，例如进行可行性研究的成本、为获取专业技能服务及深入的在地知识 及经验而支付的开支(以协助集团开展项目)，以及项目相关成本)；及(iii)约13.6%余额用作一般营运资 金。 并无承购其供股股份配额合资格股东务请注意，彼等于公司股权将会被摊薄。 ...

扣除相关开支后，供股所得款项净额估计最多约为6362万港元，约70.7%用于偿还集团负债;约15.7%用 于发展集团现有业务(包括用作集团新建筑项目的营运资本，例如进行可行性研究的成本、为获取专业 技能服务及深入的在地知识及经验而支付的开支(以协助集团开展项目)，以及项目相关成本);及约13.6% 的余额用作一般营运资金。 均安控股(01559)公布，公司建议按"2供1"基准发行最多约9.346亿股供股股份，每股供股股份0.07港 元，较股份于最后交易日在联交所所报收市价每股0.0850港元折让约17.65%。 ...

中盘转债开始占优，关注市场风格切换 ——可转债周报（2026.1.19-2026.1.25） 核心观点 关注东方金诚公众号 获取更多研究报告 ·· 作者 东方金诚 研究发展部 分析师 翟恬甜 副总经理 曹源源 上周，财政部等五部门发布《关于实施中小微企业贷款贴息 政策的通知》，对符合条件的中小微民营企业按照贷款本金 给予年化 1.5 个百分点、期限不超过 2 年的贴息支持；证监 会发布《公开募集证券投资基金业绩比较基准指引》，强调 了业绩比较基准的表征作用、运用的严肃性和稳定性，并表 示将强化基金管理人的内部控制和管理，严格监管。 时间 2026 年 1 月 26 日 二级市场方面：上周，权益市场量能维持高位，转债市场在 小盘风格强势拉动下，延续震荡上行，估值有所压降，中证 转债继续跑赢上证指数 4.36pcts。结构上看，万得可转债 AA 级指数以 4.46%涨幅领跑各万得细分指数，中、高价转债， 中、小盘转债也表现较强，中盘转债跑赢小盘转债 0.27pcts。 转债 ETF 继续净申购 42.89 亿元，博时可转债 ETF 大幅增持 41.48 亿元，海富通上证可转债 ETF 小幅增持 1.41 亿元。 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2026 年 1 月 26 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 现实格局弱稳，钢矿偏弱震荡 核心观点 螺纹钢：主力期价冲高回落，录得 0.29%日涨幅，量增仓缩。现阶段， 螺纹供应回升并至高位，而需求表现疲弱，基本面矛盾在累积，淡季钢 价承压运行，相对利好则是成本支撑与情绪偏暖，下行阻力增加，预计 钢价维持低位震荡运行态势，关注库存变化情况。 热轧卷板：主力期价震荡运行，录得 0.12%日涨幅，量仓扩大。目前来 看，热卷供应有所回落，但库存偏高，压力未退，且需求韧性趋弱，产 业矛盾易累积， ...

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a decline, with the Hang Seng Index down by 0.2%, while the Central Enterprises Dividend Index rose by 1.08% [1] - Among the constituents of the Central Enterprises Dividend Index, China Merchants Energy surged over 6%, China Railway increased by over 5%, and China National Offshore Oil, China National Building Material, and China Shenhua all rose by over 4% [1] - The Tianhong Central Enterprises Dividend ETF (159281) recorded a trading volume exceeding 63 million yuan, with a net subscription of 22 million shares during the session [1] Group 2 - CICC indicated that the dividend sector presents phase-specific and structural opportunities amid increasing external uncertainties or a pullback in growth styles, highlighting a "seesaw" effect between dividend and technology growth styles [2] - Demand for capital allocation is expected to support the dividend sector, including the shift of long-term funds from insurance and bank wealth management towards equity assets, as well as the transition of household deposits to dividend assets [2] - The overall dividend payout ratio in the A-share market has increased to 45%, providing fundamental support for the dividend style, alongside continuous encouragement from capital market policies for dividend-oriented strategies [2]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview Coatings and Waterproofing Materials - There are opportunities for price increases in the coatings and waterproofing materials sectors, with coatings showing signs of growth in 2025 and waterproofing expected to follow in 2026. Key companies to focus on include Yuhong, Keshun, and Sankeshu [1][2] Pipe Manufacturing - Companies targeting the C-end market are performing steadily with good cash flow and dividends, making them suitable for conservative investors. Recommended companies include Tubao and Weixing [1][2] Glass Fiber Sector - The demand outlook for the glass fiber sector is positive, with significant price increases in ordinary electronic cloth since the beginning of the year. China Jushi and Zhongcai Technology have considerable growth potential in the high-end electronic cloth market [1][2] Construction Sector - Large companies with low valuations and high dividend yields, such as Tunnel Co. and China State Construction, are worth attention. A recovery in traditional construction demand will benefit upstream material suppliers like Honglu Steel Structure and Jinggong Steel Structure [1][2] Non-Ferrous Metals Industry - The non-ferrous metals sector is currently at a high PB valuation, around the 75th percentile over the last 20 years, but still has upward potential based on PE valuation at approximately the 35th percentile. Gold stocks are valued at 12-13 times earnings, with a potential increase of 50%-70% during a bull market. Energy metals like copper and aluminum also show around 40% upside potential. The gold sector has risen 30% since the beginning of the year and is in the middle of a quarterly uptrend [3][4] Coal Industry Current Fundamentals - The coking coal sector shows strong fundamentals, with a recent increase in the coal index by 1.44%, outperforming the CSI 300 index. Supply-side data is low, with significant inventory reductions. As of January 23, coal inventory was 168 million tons, down 3.3% year-on-year, with coking coal inventory down 12% [5][6] Future Expectations - The coal sector is expected to see significant price increases following policy changes that will affect inventory and production levels. High-quality coking coal companies and high-dividend thermal coal companies are recommended for investment [6] Real Estate Sector Market Trends - The real estate sector is nearing the end of its bottoming phase, with recommendations to accumulate stocks that have improved fundamentals but have not yet realized performance. Jianfa Co. is highlighted, with expected losses of 5.2 to 10 billion yuan in 2025 but a commitment to maintain dividends of at least 0.7 yuan per share [7][8] Company Performance - Jianfa Co. has a stable supply chain business with significant growth in overseas operations, achieving sales of 14 billion USD, a 37% year-on-year increase. Major losses are attributed to its home furnishing business and real estate operations [9][10] Future Performance Expectations - The year 2025 is anticipated to be a low point for Jianfa Co., with a projected rebound in 2026, estimating profits between 3 to 3.5 billion yuan. The company is expected to maintain a stable dividend strategy, supported by strong cash flow [11]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the significant progress and future potential of Hainan Free Trade Port, highlighting its strategic importance in China's new era of opening up [2][24]. Group 1: Achievements and Developments - Hainan has successfully launched its Free Trade Port, achieving a key milestone with the full island closure on December 18, 2025, marking a leap towards the highest level of openness [2]. - The province has implemented a series of policies and measures to enhance its economic structure, focusing on a modern industrial system characterized by the "45432" development framework [10][24]. - The first month of the closure saw significant business activity, with "zero tariff" policies facilitating 53 transactions worth 7.53 billion yuan, a 38.9% increase year-on-year, and tax reductions totaling 1.09 billion yuan, up 194.6% [6]. Group 2: Economic and Market Dynamics - The closure has led to a surge in business interest, with approximately 100 new service enterprises established since the closure, indicating a robust market response [4]. - The import costs for raw materials have significantly decreased, allowing companies like 加绿巧食品 to expand their operations and product lines [4]. - The influx of foreign investment is notable, with 22 Fortune 500 companies establishing a presence in Hainan, reflecting strong international confidence in the region's development [7]. Group 3: Policy and Regulatory Framework - Hainan has developed a policy framework characterized by "zero tariffs, low tax rates, and simplified tax systems," which aligns with international trade standards [6]. - The province's policies have effectively integrated local products into global supply chains, enhancing the value of Hainan's agricultural goods [6]. - A risk prevention system has been established to ensure the safe and orderly development of the Free Trade Port, emphasizing the importance of balancing development and security [9]. Group 4: Future Prospects and Strategic Initiatives - Hainan is focusing on future industries such as biomanufacturing, hydrogen energy, and brain-computer interface technology, aligning with national development strategies [11]. - The province aims to enhance its tourism, healthcare, and education sectors to attract international consumers and create a series of high-value offerings [11]. - Ongoing infrastructure projects and the establishment of innovation centers are expected to further boost Hainan's economic landscape and attract talent [10][21].