| | 操作评级 | 2025年07月24日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 铜 | ★☆☆ | 肖静 首席分析师 | | | | F3047773 Z0014087 | | 铝 | な女女 | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 氧化铝 | ★☆☆ | | | | | F3062795 Z0015311 | | 铸造铝合金 文文文 | | | | | な☆☆ | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | 能 | ☆☆☆ | 张秀睿 中级分析师 | | 镇及不锈钢 ☆☆☆ | | | | | | F03099436 Z0021022 | | 锡 | ★☆☆ | 孙芳芳 中级分析师 | | 碳酸锂 | ななな | | | | | F03111330 Z0018905 | | 工业硅 | な女女 | | | 多晶硅 | ななな | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【铜】 周四沪铜震荡收阳,尾盘短线交投情绪波动大。与多数工业品相比,近期铜市场情绪偏谨慎,倾向铜价上方整 数关有阻力。隔夜美盘铜价创高,美 ...

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Report Overview - Report Title: 20250723 Shenwan Futures Non-ferrous Metals Basis Daily Report [1] - Analyst: Li Ye - Qualification Number: F0285557 - Transaction Advisory Number: Z0002369 - Email: liye@sywgqh.com.cn - Phone: 021 - 50586241 Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Views - Copper prices may fluctuate within a short - term range due to the low concentrate processing fees, low copper prices testing smelting output, and a mix of positive and negative factors in downstream demand [2]. - Zinc prices may experience wide - range fluctuations in the short term as concentrate processing fees are rising, and there are expectations of improved concentrate supply and potential recovery in smelting supply [2]. Summary by Relevant Content Copper - **Price Trend**: Night - time copper prices closed higher. Short - term price may fluctuate within a range [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: Low concentrate processing fees and low copper prices challenge smelting output. Downstream demand in the domestic market is generally stable and positive, with the power industry showing positive growth, auto production and sales increasing, home appliance output growth slowing, and the real estate sector remaining weak [2]. - **Market Data**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 79,670 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 165 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month contract closing price was 9,898 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 68.24 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 122,075 tons with a daily decrease of 100 tons [2]. Zinc - **Price Trend**: Night - time zinc prices closed higher. Short - term price may have wide - range fluctuations [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: Concentrate processing fees are rising. Domestic auto production and sales are increasing, infrastructure is growing steadily, home appliance output growth is slowing, and the real estate sector is weak. The market expects significant improvement in concentrate supply this year and potential recovery in smelting supply [2]. - **Market Data**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 22,885 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 35 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month contract closing price was 2,854 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 4.23 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 118,225 tons with a daily decrease of 875 tons [2]. Other Metals - **Aluminum**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 20,870 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 50 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month contract closing price was 2,652 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was 1.88 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 434,425 tons with a daily increase of 3,725 tons [2]. - **Nickel**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 122,550 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 570 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month contract closing price was 15,530 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 207.48 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 207,876 tons with a daily increase of 300 tons [2]. - **Lead**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 16,960 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 185 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month contract closing price was 2,015 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 25.40 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 264,925 tons with a daily decrease of 3,475 tons [2]. - **Tin**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 267,250 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 670 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month contract closing price was 33,920 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was 85.00 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 1,885 tons with a daily decrease of 50 tons [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: Today, the main copper futures price fluctuated around 79,700 yuan. The position of Shanghai copper decreased slightly. With the decline of the US dollar index and the improvement of domestic macro - and industrial expectations, the electrolytic copper inventory decreased significantly on Monday. Since last week, the macro - economic recovery has pushed up copper prices. The London copper has returned to the $10,000 mark, and the Shanghai copper has returned to the 80,000 mark. It is advisable to continue to pay attention to the long - short game at the integer mark [5]. - **Aluminum**: Today, Shanghai aluminum increased in position and rose, with the main futures price approaching the 21,000 mark. The 8 - 9 month spread continued to weaken. With the rapid recovery of domestic macro - expectations and the continuous rise of upstream alumina and coal prices, the profit of electrolytic aluminum plants decreased from a high level. The downstream is in the off - season with a decline in the start - up rate, and the inventory reduction of electrolytic aluminum has slowed down. It is expected that the aluminum price will remain strong, and also pay attention to the inter - month reverse spread [6]. - **Nickel**: Today, Shanghai nickel fell in the morning and rebounded in the afternoon, with the position continuing to rise. Supported by the macro - economic situation, the nickel price followed the upward trend. However, the medium - and long - term fundamentals of nickel in the non - ferrous metals are weak, and the recent increase in upstream port inventory has weakened the support for the nickel price. Technically, the nickel price increased in position and broke through the high point in early July, with strong upward momentum, and it is expected to remain strong [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: In June 2025, China's copper product output was 2.214 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.8%. From January to June 2025, the cumulative output of copper products was 11.765 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%. In June 2025, China imported 460,000 tons of unwrought copper and copper products, a year - on - year increase of 6.5%; the cumulative import from January to June was 2.63 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.6%. In June 2025, China exported 154,361 tons of unwrought copper and copper products, a year - on - year decrease of 33.8%; the cumulative export from January to June was 743,254 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.9%. On July 21, the social inventory of electrolytic copper decreased significantly [9]. - **Aluminum**: From January to June 2025, China's cumulative import of bauxite was 103.4 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 34%. On July 21, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 480,000 tons, an increase of 9,000 tons compared with July 17 and a decrease of 3,000 tons compared with July 14 [10]. - **Nickel**: On July 22, for the refined nickel Shanghai market's mainstream reference contract, the Shanghai nickel 2508 contract, the mainstream premium of Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was +2,000 yuan/ton, with a price of 124,530 yuan/ton; that of Russian nickel was +550 yuan/ton, with a price of 123,080 yuan/ton; that of Norwegian nickel was +3,600 yuan/ton, with a price of 126,130 yuan/ton; and that of nickel beans was - 900 yuan/ton, with a price of 121,630 yuan/ton [11]. 3.2 Related Charts - **Copper**: The report provides charts on copper basis, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, LME copper cancellation warrant ratio, overseas copper exchange inventory, and SHFE warrant inventory [12][14][15]. - **Aluminum**: The report includes charts on aluminum basis, aluminum month spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, alumina trend, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum, and alumina inventory [25][27][29]. - **Nickel**: The report presents charts on nickel basis, LME inventory, LME nickel trend, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [38][40][42].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the performance of various non-ferrous metal futures, with polysilicon leading the gains at nearly 6% increase [1] - As of July 22, polysilicon futures rose by 5.78% to 47,660.00 yuan/ton, while industrial silicon increased by 4.45% to 9,515.00 yuan/ton, and alumina by 3.83% to 3,439.00 yuan/ton [1] - In contrast, lead futures experienced a slight decline of 0.44%, settling at 16,860.00 yuan/ton [1] Group 2 - The opening prices for various non-ferrous metal futures on July 22 included alumina at 3,388.00 yuan, lithium carbonate at 71,900.00 yuan, and copper at 79,720.00 yuan [2] - The previous closing prices for these contracts were 3,386.00 yuan for alumina, 71,280.00 yuan for lithium carbonate, and 79,770.00 yuan for copper, indicating slight fluctuations [2] - The futures market showed a mixed trend, with some metals like nickel and tin showing higher prices compared to their previous closing values [2] Group 3 - As of July 21, copper futures warehouse receipts decreased by 10,062 tons to 28,177 tons, while aluminum receipts fell by 2,804 tons to 63,744 tons [3] - Zinc and tin futures warehouse receipts also saw minor reductions, while nickel receipts increased by 551 tons to 22,111 tons [3] - The data indicates a phenomenon of "backwardation" for copper, zinc, nickel, tin, and industrial silicon, where spot prices exceed futures prices [3][4]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: This week, the main contract price of Shanghai copper fluctuated around 78,000 yuan and then rebounded. The position volume decreased to below 500,000 contracts, the lowest since March this year, indicating a decrease in capital attention. Due to the uncertainty of copper prices under tariff impacts, short - term funds may flow out, reducing short - term volatility. After the market digests the tariff negatives, copper prices are expected to continue to stabilize and rebound [5]. - **Aluminum**: The main contract price of Shanghai aluminum dropped sharply on Monday and then stabilized around 20,400 yuan. The position volume also decreased rapidly on Monday, with obvious capital outflows. The decline was due to inventory accumulation and concerns about US tariffs. With a weak industrial situation and strong macro - support, aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. Attention should be paid to inter - month reverse spreads [6]. - **Nickel**: Today, the main contract price of nickel fluctuated above 120,000 yuan. With positive US economic data and positive macro - factors, non - ferrous and black sectors rose. However, the long - term fundamentals of nickel are weak, and the increasing port inventory weakens the support for nickel prices. Attention should be paid to the long - short game around 120,000 yuan [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: In June 2025, China exported 154,361 tons of unwrought copper and copper products, a year - on - year decrease of 33.8%, and imported 460,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.5%. From January to June, the cumulative export was 743,254 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.9%, and the cumulative import was 2.63 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.6%. In June, the import of copper ore concentrates was 2.35 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.8%, and the cumulative import from January to June was 14.75 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.4%. BHP's copper production in the fourth quarter was 516,200 tons, with an expected annual production of 1.8 - 2 million tons [9]. - **Aluminum**: In June 2025, China exported 490,000 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, a year - on - year decrease of 19.8%, and imported 300,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 24.1%. The export of alumina was 170,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.9%. The import of bauxite and concentrates was 18.12 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 36.2% [10]. - **Nickel**: On July 18, for the Shanghai market's mainstream reference contract of refined nickel, the price of Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was 122,480 yuan/ton, Russian nickel was 120,980 yuan/ton, Norwegian nickel was 124,030 yuan/ton, and nickel beans were 119,530 yuan/ton [10]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - **Copper**: Charts include copper basis, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, SHFE warrant inventory, copper month - spread, and SHFE inventory and inventory warrants [11][13][14]. - **Aluminum**: Charts cover aluminum basis, electrolytic aluminum domestic social inventory, alumina trend, aluminum month - spread, electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory, and alumina inventory [23][25][27]. - **Nickel**: Charts involve nickel basis, LME nickel inventory and cancelled warrant ratio, LME nickel trend, nickel month - spread, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [35][38][39].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - Copper prices may fluctuate within a range in the short term due to the low concentrate processing fees, low copper prices testing smelting output, and mixed factors of stable downstream demand in power and positive growth in auto production and sales, while slowdown in home appliance output growth and weak real estate [2] - Zinc prices may experience wide - range fluctuations in the short term as concentrate processing fees are rising, market expects improved concentrate supply and possible recovery in smelting supply, with mixed downstream demand factors similar to copper [2] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Copper - Night - time copper prices closed higher. Low concentrate processing fees and low copper prices challenge smelting output. Domestic downstream demand is generally stable and positive, with power industry growing, auto production and sales positive, home appliance output growth slowing, and real estate remaining weak. Copper prices may fluctuate in a range. Attention should be paid to US tariff progress, and changes in the US dollar, copper smelting, and home appliance output [2] - The previous domestic futures closing price was 77,840 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 85 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 9,678 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 58.71 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 121,000 tons, and the daily change was 10,525 tons [2] Zinc - Night - time zinc prices closed higher. Concentrate processing fees have been rising. Domestic auto production and sales are growing, infrastructure is growing steadily, home appliance output growth is slowing, and real estate is weak. The market expects significant improvement in concentrate supply this year and possible recovery in smelting supply. Zinc prices may have wide - range fluctuations. Attention should be paid to US tariff progress, and changes in the US dollar, zinc smelting, and home appliance output [2] - The previous domestic futures closing price was 22,130 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 25 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,738 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 3.20 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 121,350 tons, and the daily change was 2,750 tons [2] Other Metals - Aluminum: The previous domestic futures closing price was 20,455 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 110 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,589 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 3.28 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 423,525 tons, and the daily change was 6,550 tons [2] - Nickel: The previous domestic futures closing price was 119,880 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 1,370 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 15,065 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 197.77 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 207,288 tons, and the daily change was 708 tons [2] - Lead: The previous domestic futures closing price was 16,845 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 205 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 1,978 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 27.85 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 269,225 tons, and the daily change was - 1,850 tons [2] - Tin: The previous domestic futures closing price was 261,920 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 2,260 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 33,070 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 33.00 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 2,035 tons, and the daily change was 55 tons [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - **Copper**: The main copper futures price fluctuated narrowly below 78,000 yuan today, with a slight decline in open interest. Due to tariff impacts, the uncertainty of copper has increased, causing the price to rise and then fall, and the market's attention to copper has rapidly declined. The short - term speculative nature of copper has decreased, and its volatility may continue to decline. The continuous rebound of the US dollar index has put pressure on copper prices. The basis and calendar spread have continued to weaken, indicating a loosening of spot supply during the industrial off - season. After the copper price dropped, downstream industries showed a strong willingness to replenish inventory, providing support for the futures price. Continued attention should be paid to the long - short game at the 78,000 - yuan level [5]. - **Aluminum**: The main aluminum futures price fluctuated narrowly around 20,400 yuan today, with little change in open interest. Entering the off - season, the downstream operating rate has decreased, the basis and calendar spread of electrolytic aluminum have weakened, and inventory has started to rise. On July 17, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 471,000 tons, down 12,000 tons from Monday this week and up 16,000 tons from last Thursday. The improvement in the domestic macro - environment may stabilize the aluminum price. However, the decline in off - season demand and high upstream profits are not conducive to the upward movement of the aluminum price. Technically, the main aluminum futures price has stabilized in the vicinity of the 40 - day moving average, and it is expected to move in a fluctuating manner [6]. - **Nickel**: The main nickel futures price fluctuated below 120,000 yuan today, and briefly reached above the 120,000 - yuan mark in the afternoon, with a slight decline in open interest. Since this week, the non - ferrous metal sector as a whole has shown a trend of fluctuating and stabilizing, and the positive domestic macro - environment has provided support for non - ferrous metals. However, the medium - to - long - term fundamentals of nickel are weak. Recently, the inventory at upstream ports has continued to rise, and the supply at the ore end has become looser, weakening the support for the nickel price. Technically, continued attention should be paid to the long - short game at the 120,000 - yuan level [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: In June 2025, China's copper product output was 2.214 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.8%; from January to June, the cumulative output was 11.765 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%. In June, the refined copper (electrolytic copper) output was 1.302 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.2%; from January to June, the cumulative output was 7.363 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.5%. The top three provinces in terms of copper product output from January to June were Jiangxi, Zhejiang, and Jiangsu, with Jiangxi's copper product output reaching 2.8595 million tons [9]. - **Aluminum**: In June 2025, China's alumina output was 7.749 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.8%; from January to June, the cumulative output was 45.151 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.3%. In June, the electrolytic aluminum output was 3.809 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%; from January to June, the cumulative output was 22.379 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.3%. In June, the aluminum product output was 5.874 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.7%; from January to June, the cumulative output was 32.768 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.3%. In June, the aluminum alloy output was 166,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.8%; from January to June, the cumulative output was 909,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.6%. From January to June, Shandong ranked first in output with 7.2632 million tons, Henan ranked second with 5.8375 million tons, and Guangxi ranked third with 2.3962 million tons [10]. - **Nickel**: On July 17, for the refined nickel Shanghai market's mainstream reference contract, the Jinchuan electrolytic nickel's mainstream premium was +2050 yuan/ton, with a price of 121,530 yuan/ton; the Russian nickel's mainstream premium was +550 yuan/ton, with a price of 120,030 yuan/ton; the Norwegian nickel's mainstream premium was +3600 yuan/ton, with a price of 123,080 yuan/ton; and the nickel bean's mainstream premium was - 900 yuan/ton, with a price of 118,580 yuan/ton [11]. 2. Related Charts - **Copper**: The report presents multiple charts related to copper, including the copper basis, copper calendar spread, domestic and overseas copper inventories, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE copper warrant inventory [12][14][15]. - **Aluminum**: The report includes charts on the aluminum basis, aluminum calendar spread, domestic and overseas aluminum inventories, alumina price trend, and alumina inventory [23][25][27]. - **Nickel**: The report provides charts on the nickel basis, LME nickel inventory, SHFE nickel inventory, LME nickel price trend, and nickel ore port inventory [35][37][39].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Copper prices may experience short - term range - bound fluctuations. Multiple factors are intertwined, with low concentrate processing fees and low copper prices testing smelting output. Domestic downstream demand is generally stable and positive, but the real estate sector remains weak. Attention should be paid to factors such as US tariff progress, the US dollar, copper smelting, and household appliance production [2]. - Zinc prices may have short - term wide - range fluctuations. Concentrate processing fees have been rising recently, and the market expects an improvement in concentrate supply and a possible recovery in smelting supply this year. Domestic downstream demand shows mixed trends, with the real estate sector being weak. Attention should be paid to factors such as US tariff progress, the US dollar, zinc smelting, and household appliance production [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Copper - Night - session copper prices closed lower. Low concentrate processing fees and low copper prices are challenging smelting output. Domestic downstream demand in the power and automotive sectors is growing positively, while the household appliance output growth is slowing, and the real estate sector is weak. Copper prices may range - bound fluctuate in the short term [2]. - The previous domestic futures closing price was 77,980 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 9,637 dollars/ton, the LME spot - to - 3 - month spread was - 64.49 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 110,475 tons, and the daily change was 850 tons [2]. Zinc - Night - session zinc prices closed higher. Concentrate processing fees have been rising, and the market expects an improvement in concentrate supply and a possible recovery in smelting supply this year. Domestic downstream demand in the automotive and infrastructure sectors is growing, while the household appliance output growth is slowing, and the real estate sector is weak. Zinc prices may have wide - range fluctuations in the short term [2]. - The previous domestic futures closing price was 22,010 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,700 dollars/ton, the LME spot - to - 3 - month spread was - 8.95 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 118,600 tons, and the daily change was 5,200 tons [2]. Other Metals - Aluminum: The previous domestic futures closing price was 20,455 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 100 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,576 dollars/ton, the LME spot - to - 3 - month spread was - 2.20 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 416,975 tons, and the daily change was 11,425 tons [2]. - Nickel: The previous domestic futures closing price was 118,710 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 1,700 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 14,990 dollars/ton, the LME spot - to - 3 - month spread was - 207.51 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 206,580 tons, and the daily change was 0 tons [2]. - Lead: The previous domestic futures closing price was 16,885 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 200 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 1,978 dollars/ton, the LME spot - to - 3 - month spread was - 31.02 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 271,075 tons, and the daily change was 10,125 tons [2]. - Tin: The previous domestic futures closing price was 262,300 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 2,510 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 32,990 dollars/ton, the LME spot - to - 3 - month spread was - 108.00 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 1,980 tons, and the daily change was - 115 tons [2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a reversal in the global zinc market, with an expanding supply-demand gap [1] Group 2 - The WBMS report indicates that the zinc market is experiencing a significant shift in supply and demand dynamics [1] - Factors contributing to the widening supply-demand gap include changes in production levels and consumption patterns [1] - The report suggests that this trend may have implications for pricing and investment opportunities in the zinc sector [1]