金十数据5月16日讯，日本已发出信号，准备与美国总统唐特朗普在贸易关税问题上达成更好的协议， 而不是冒着国内政治反弹的风险达成协议。日本渴望避免与华盛顿的关系出现任何恶化，而日本首相石 破茂最初把先于其他国家进入美国谈判桌作为优先事项。但官员和分析师表示，商界领袖和石破茂所在 的自民党成员要求他拒绝任何危及汽车业或威胁国内农民的协议，这迫使他重新思考。"尽管日本非常 渴望成为第一个与华盛顿就关税问题展开谈判的国家，但 这种紧迫感现在已经转变，重点是确保日本 得到一份好协议，"一名日本官员表示。 官员们表示，目前不太可能在日本参议院选举前达成协议。日 本参议院选举将于7月底举行，预计对极不受欢迎的石破茂政府来说，这将是一大考验。 （英国金融时 报） 日本或无法在7月底之前与美国达成贸易协议 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral, waiting for fundamental verification [6] Core View - The report focuses on multiple aspects including Sino-US economic and trade consultations, global trade policy games, US monetary policy, and commodity market trends. It emphasizes short - term attention on economic fact verification and long - term consideration of stagflation allocation [2][3][4][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On May 7, "One Bank, One Administration, One Commission" introduced a package of financial policies to boost the economy. The central bank launched ten monetary policy measures in three categories, including a 0.5 - percentage - point reserve requirement ratio cut and a 0.1 - percentage - point policy interest rate cut. The financial regulatory authority will introduce eight incremental policies, and the CSRC aims to "continuously stabilize and activate the capital market" [2] - In April, China's exports increased by 8.1% year - on - year, and imports decreased by 0.2% year - on - year. Exports to the US decreased by 21% year - on - year, while exports to ASEAN increased by 20.8% year - on - year. Labor - intensive product exports were significantly impacted [2] - From May 14, 2025, 12:01, the tariff rate on imported US goods was reduced from 34% to 10%, and an additional 24% tariff was suspended for 90 days [2] - On May 8, the UK and the US reached an agreement on tariff trade terms, with a "tax rate + volume" restriction approach. The US warned that tariff negotiations with Japan and South Korea would take time, and India countered US tariff policies [3] - The US May FOMC meeting kept the target interest rate unchanged. The April CPI data was lower than expected, but the impact of tariffs on the consumer side was not fully transmitted [4] Commodity Market - From the 2018 tariff review, the impact of tariff hikes on commodities first affects demand and then inflation. Agricultural products are more likely to have price increases due to tariffs, while energy products face a supply - loose situation in the medium - term [5] - China has stopped purchasing US soybeans and corn since mid - January and increased imports from Brazil. The IEA lowered the oil demand forecast, and OPEC + will increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in June [5] Strategy - The overall strategy for commodities and stock index futures is neutral, waiting for fundamental verification [6] To - do News - On May 15, the Ministry of Commerce adjusted counter - tariff measures against the US in response to the US revocation of additional tariffs on China. China is open to the Sino - US economic and trade consultation mechanism [8] - Trump mentioned progress in negotiations with Iran and an "almost zero - tariff" agreement intention with India. The APEC estimated that the GDP growth rate of the Asia - Pacific region in 2025 is 2.6%, lower than the previous 3.3% [8]

美联储主席鲍威尔在演讲中表示，随着经济和政策不断变动，长期利率可能会走高。他警告称："我们 可能正在进入一个供应冲击更频繁、可能更持久的时期——这对经济和央行来说都是一个艰巨的挑 战。"美联储将重新审视政策框架。 美国与卡塔尔签署超2435亿美元经济及军事合作协议。卡塔尔投资局计划在未来十年内向美国追加5000 亿美元的投资。 特朗普：希望苹果停止将iPhone产业转移到印度。 李强：把做强国内大循环作为推动经济行稳致远的战略之举。 美股方面，三大指数收盘涨跌不一，道指涨0.65%，标普500指数涨0.41%，纳指跌0.18%。 大型科技股多数下跌，亚马逊、Meta跌超2%，特斯拉跌超1%，苹果、英伟达、谷歌小幅下跌；奈飞涨 超2%，微软、英特尔小幅上涨。 热门中概股多数下跌，纳斯达克中国金龙指数收跌2.37%。网易大涨超14%，股价逼近历史新高；向上 融科跌超8%，阿里巴巴、文远知行跌逾7%，富途控股跌超5%，京东、百度、蔚来跌逾3%。 | | | 隔夜美股概览 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 类别 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | | 道琼斯 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral, waiting for fundamental verification [6] Core Viewpoints - Financial data is positive, supporting the real economy [1] - Short - term focus is on economic fact verification, and attention should be paid to global trade policy games [2][3] - The US May FOMC meeting maintained the target interest rate, and inflation pressure has further eased [4] - For commodities, pay attention to the transmission of fundamentals in the follow - up and stagflation allocation in the long - term [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On May 7, "One Bank, One Administration, and One Commission" introduced a package of financial policies to boost the economy. The central bank launched ten monetary policy measures in three major categories, including a 0.5 - percentage - point reserve requirement ratio cut and a 0.1 - percentage - point policy interest rate cut [2] - In April, China's exports increased by 8.1% year - on - year, and imports decreased by 0.2% year - on - year. Exports to the US decreased by 21%, while those to ASEAN increased by 20.8%. Labor - intensive product exports were significantly impacted [2] - From January to April 2025, the incremental social financing scale increased, indicating greater financial support for the real economy [2] - The China - US Geneva economic and trade talks achieved substantial progress. China reduced the tariff rate on US - imported goods from 34% to 10% and suspended 24% of additional tariffs for 90 days [2] - On May 14, the A - share market fluctuated upward, and sectors such as large - scale finance led the Shanghai Composite Index to regain 3,400 points [2] Global Trade Policy - On May 8, the UK and the US reached an agreement on tariff trade terms, with a "tax rate + volume" restriction approach. This may impact global trade, and negotiations with other countries are still ongoing [3] - India countered the Trump tariff policy by imposing tariffs on some US products [3] - Based on the 2018 - 2019 situation, if the weighted average import tariff rate is adjusted downward, the expected upward pressure on long - term inflation will also be reduced [3] US Interest Rate Policy - The US May FOMC meeting statement maintained the target interest rate. Economic prospects are more uncertain, and the risks of rising unemployment and inflation have increased [4] - The US April CPI data in May was lower than expected, indicating further alleviation of inflation pressure, but the impact of tariffs has not fully reached the consumer end [4] Commodity Market - From the 2018 tariff review, the tariff increase event first led to a decline in demand trading and then an increase in inflation trading. Industrial products need to be vigilant against the emotional impact of US stock adjustments, while agricultural products are more likely to have upward price fluctuations [5] - China has stopped purchasing US soybeans and corn since mid - January and increased purchases from Brazil [5] - Crude oil prices have declined, and OPEC + plans to increase production in June and may continue in July, with a relatively loose medium - term supply [5] - Due to policy uncertainties and trade policy games, there is a risk of a short - term correction in gold [5] Strategy - The overall rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral, waiting for fundamental verification [6] Important News - From January to April 2025, the cumulative incremental social financing scale was 16.34 trillion yuan, 3.61 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [8] - Starting from 12:01 on May 14, China adjusted the tariff increase measures on US - imported goods, reducing the tariff rate from 34% to 10% and suspending 24% of additional tariffs for 90 days [9] - The State Council issued the "Legislative Work Plan for 2025", including drafts of the National Development Planning Law, the Financial Law, and revisions to the Tendering and Bidding Law [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term, maintain a cautious long position for the four major stock index futures (IH/IF/IC/IM) in A - shares; maintain a cautious wait - and - see attitude for commodities and government bonds. The ranking is: stock index > government bonds > commodities. Among commodities, the ranking is: precious metals > non - ferrous metals > energy > black metals [2] 2. Core Viewpoints - Domestically, in April, China's exports increased by 8.1% year - on - year, far exceeding expectations, and the trade surplus was 96.81 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 34%. China and the US will hold trade talks, and the central bank has unexpectedly cut the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5% and interest rates by 10BP, which will boost domestic risk appetite in the short term. Internationally, the US economic activities are still expanding steadily, the US - UK has reached a limited trade agreement, and the US - China trade negotiation has made progress. The Fed maintains the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% - 4.5%, and the dollar rebounds in the short term, leading to an overall increase in global risk appetite [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Last Week's Important News and Events - On May 5th, the US President announced to impose a 100% tariff on all foreign - made movies entering the US and will announce tariff measures on pharmaceutical products in the next two weeks. On May 6th, the US March trade deficit widened to a record 140.5 billion US dollars, and the US refused to cancel some tariffs on Japan. On May 7th, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged, and the US and the EU are in trade negotiations. On May 8th, the UK and the US reached a tariff trade agreement, and the EU announced a retaliatory list of 95 billion euros of US goods. On May 9th, the US President said that the US and China will conduct substantial trade negotiations this weekend, and the current 145% tariff on China will be lowered [3][4][5][6][10] 3.2 This Week's Important Events and Economic Data Reminders - From May 12th to May 16th, there will be a series of industrial data releases, including electrolytic aluminum inventory, iron ore shipping and arrival volume, etc., as well as important economic data such as the US CPI, PPI, and GDP data of various countries [11] 3.3 Global Asset Price Trends - Stock markets: Different stock indices in various countries have different price trends and changes. Bond markets: Yields of 10 - year bonds in different countries have different fluctuations. Commodity markets: Prices of various commodities such as steel, non - ferrous metals, and energy have different changes. Exchange rate markets: Exchange rates of major currencies have different degrees of fluctuations [12] 3.4 Domestic High - Frequency Macroeconomic Data - Upstream: Includes data on commodity price indices, energy prices, coal inventories, and iron ore prices. Mid - stream: Covers data on steel prices, production, and inventory, non - ferrous metal prices and inventory, building material prices and inventory, and chemical product prices and inventory. Downstream: Involves data on real estate transaction area, automobile sales, and agricultural product prices [13][42][71] 3.5 Domestic and Foreign Liquidity - Global liquidity: Shown by the US Treasury yield curve. Domestic liquidity: Reflected by central bank open - market operations, inter - bank lending rates, and bond yields [82][84] 3.6 Global Financial Calendar - From May 13th to May 16th, there are important economic data releases in the EU, the US, Germany, Japan, etc., including CPI, PPI, GDP, and other data [105]

Group 1 - The newly launched financial policy package includes quantitative, price, and structural measures aimed at addressing key points of economic development, accelerating the release of China's market potential [1][2] - A 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio will release approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity, providing continuous funding support for the real economy [2][3] - The policy also includes a 0.1 percentage point reduction in policy interest rates, which will lower financing costs for enterprises and residents, stimulating investment and consumption [2][3] Group 2 - The financial policy increases the re-lending quota for technological innovation and technical transformation, providing strong funding support for innovative enterprises [3] - Establishing "service consumption and pension re-lending" aims to promote the prosperity of the service consumption and pension industries [3] - The policy optimizes monetary policy tools to support the capital market, creating risk-sharing instruments for technology innovation bonds, enhancing market vitality [3]

国际新闻： 1. 美联储连续第三次维持利率不变，声明中强调通胀和失业率上升的风险走高。鲍威尔高呼不确定性因 素以及继续观望等待的成本很低，表示不急于降息。鲍威尔还称无意主动与特朗普会晤，后者的降息呼 吁无碍美联储的工作。 6. 印巴局势-①印度将在拉贾斯坦邦靠近国际边界的地区开展大规模空战演习 ②印度方面表示，如果巴 基斯坦对袭击做出回应，印度也将做出回应 ③以色列驻印度大使：以色列"支持印度的自卫权" ④巴防 长：正试图避免一场"全面战争"。 金十数据整理：昨日今晨重要新闻汇总（5月8日） 国内新闻： 1. "一行一局一会"重磅发声 降准降息等多项稳市措施发布。 2. 习近平抵达莫斯科对俄罗斯进行国事访问并出席纪念苏联伟大卫国战争胜利80周年庆典。 3. 中国央行连续第六个月增持黄金。 4. A股4月新开户192万户，同比增长31%。 5. 证监会印发《推动公募基金高质量发展行动方案》。 6. 极氪拟被私有化并从美股退市，李书福：回归一个吉利。 7. 何立峰会见阿联酋阿布扎比投资局管理委员会主席马吉德。 8. 外交部：呼吁印巴双方以和平稳定大局为重，保持冷静克制。 9. 外交部回应中美经贸高层会谈：这次会谈 ...

Group 1: Policy Overview - The core viewpoint of the article is that China has introduced a comprehensive set of policies to stabilize the economy amidst global uncertainties, focusing on monetary policy, regulatory reforms, and capital market support [1][4] - The policy aims to boost market confidence through five key areas: stabilizing the real estate market, stock market, promoting consumption, stabilizing foreign trade, and strengthening technology [1][4] Group 2: Real Estate Market - The real estate market is identified as a crucial pillar of economic confidence, with policies targeting both demand and supply sides [1] - On the demand side, the policy includes a 0.25 percentage point reduction in public housing loan rates and expectations of lower Loan Prime Rates (LPR), easing the mortgage burden on residents [1] - On the supply side, the policy accelerates the development of financing systems that align with new real estate models, addressing the reasonable financing needs of property companies [1] Group 3: Stock Market Stability - The stability of the stock market is emphasized as vital for the broader economic landscape and investor interests, supported by long-term capital and institutional safeguards [2] - Following the "924 New Policy" in 2024, the Shanghai Composite Index rose from 2700 to 3400 points, indicating strong market resilience despite recent tariff disruptions [2] - The A-share market saw significant gains on May 7, with all three major indices closing higher [2] Group 4: Consumption Promotion - Structural tools have been implemented to stimulate consumption, which is key for expanding domestic demand [2] - A special quota of 500 billion yuan has been established for service and elderly care loans, encouraging banks to increase credit supply and activate demand in various service sectors [2] - The reduction of reserve requirements for auto finance and leasing companies aims to lower their liabilities, directly stimulating automotive consumption and equipment investment [2] Group 5: Foreign Trade and Technology - Policies to stabilize foreign trade include financial support, export insurance enhancements, and integrated domestic and foreign trade strategies [3] - The financing coordination mechanism now includes all foreign trade enterprises, providing tailored support to those affected by external shocks [3] - The bond market is fostering new productive forces by supporting the issuance of long-term technology bonds focused on sectors like AI, quantum technology, and biomedicine [3]

资讯早班车 资讯早班车-2025-05-07 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 20250416 | 2025/03 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 5.40 | 5.40 | 5.30 | | 20250430 | 2025/04 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.00 | 50.50 | 50.40 | | 20250430 | 2025/04 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活 | % | 50.40 | 50.80 | 51.20 | | | | 动 | | | | | | 20250430 | 2025/04 | 财新 PMI:制造业 | % | 50.40 | 51.20 | 51.40 | | 20250506 | 2025/04 | 财新 PMI:服务业经营 活动指数 | % | 50.70 | 51.90 | 52.50 | | | | 社会融资规模增量:当 | | | | | | 20250414 | 2025 ...

Group 1 - Trump's economic strategy is contradictory, as his tariff policies may lead to inflation while simultaneously risking deflation due to potential impacts on exports [2][3] - The U.S. is unlikely to develop a competitive shipbuilding industry within seven years, as it lacks the capacity to build advanced vessels needed for modern shipping [3] - The U.S. surpassed Australia in 2023 to become the world's largest exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG), with plans to double exports by the end of the decade [4][5] Group 2 - The U.S. energy sector warns that new regulations could undermine its ability to lead the global LNG market, as there is currently insufficient capacity to build necessary LNG transport vessels [3][5] - China remains a dominant player in the shipbuilding industry, accounting for a significant share of global orders across various vessel types, including 83% of container ships [7] - The impact of U.S. tariffs on Chinese shipbuilders is uncertain, and large-scale withdrawal from the Chinese shipbuilding sector is unlikely in the near term [7]