男生普通话版 下载mp3 女声普通话版 下载mp3 粤语版 下载mp3 西南方言版 下载mp3 东北话版 下载mp3 上海话版 下载mp3 美媒：特朗普政府考虑对六大行业征收新的国家安全关税 美媒：美军将领警告对伊朗动武风险极高，易陷长期冲突 欧洲议会暂停批准欧美贸易协议 特朗普：任何想"耍花招"的国家将面临更高的关税 外交部：德国总理默茨将于2月25日至26日对中国进行正式访问 国投白银LOF估值调整预计对公司2026年度归母净利润产生一定负面影响 市场盘点 周一，在美最高法院推翻特朗普的关税政策后，交易员重新评估美国关税政策，美元指数横盘整理，最终收跌0.02%，报97.73。基准的10年期美债收益率收 报4.0330%，对美联储政策利率敏感的2年期美债收益率收报3.4440%。 特朗普关税计划不确定性带动避险需求，现货黄金重回5200美元之上，触及三周最高水平，最终收涨2.46%，报5229.93美元/盎司；现货白银上触89美元， 最终收涨4.24%，报88.18美元/盎司。 今日优选 特朗普释放美伊局势缓和信号：更倾向协议而非战争 在美国与伊朗即将举行第三轮核谈判之际，国际油价小幅回落，但仍维持在六个 ...

《周期与财富》 （美）彼得·奥本海默 著 王德伦 王欢 译 中国人民大学出版社 2025年6月出版 ◎张译井 在与人类相关的诸多系统中，无论是社会形态、流行时尚，还是经济与金融市场，周期与趋势的存在及 其解释，都已有了悠久的历史。其中，金融市场的长期结构性变化，因其创造和吞噬财富的巨大力量， 成为专业学者和从业人员不断求索的课题。尽管不同时代的经济、政治和政策环境往往大相径庭，但是 金融市场周期却随时间推移反复重现。 金融周期的发展和变化不仅关乎金融史的演进，也与普罗大众的财富机遇息息相关。是什么因素驱动了 金融周期的形成？如何判断拐点？如何分析技术进步给传统周期带来的变化？作为拥有近40年宏观研究 经验的资深分析师，彼得·奥本海默在《周期与财富》这本书中，以宏观的历史视野，系统梳理了二战 以来的多轮金融周期，从GDP增长、利率、通货膨胀等多个维度，深入分析了周期背后的驱动因素及其 对资本市场的深远影响。 轮回之魅：金融市场的超级周期 作者指出，金融市场周期的形成和变化，既与经济发展的主要趋势密不可分，也与历史、文化、政治等 因素紧密相关。社会公平性、国际协作水平、地缘政治格局、人口变迁和科技创新等，共同对金 ...

Group 1 - European stock markets declined, with the Stoxx 600 index closing down 0.5%, driven by losses in financial services, media, and tourism sectors, while personal care and utilities outperformed the market [1] - Novo Nordisk's stock plummeted after its new weight-loss injection drug underperformed compared to a competing product from Eli Lilly in a recent trial [1] - The European Parliament's major political groups announced a suspension of legislative work to approve the US-EU trade agreement following the US Supreme Court's overturning of Trump's global tariff measures, leading to new global tariffs announced by Trump [1] Group 2 - KBC Securities' global equity head noted that the current options seem limited and less impactful, which could be beneficial for consumer stocks, but concerns remain about market participants' willingness to endure upcoming volatility from tariff news [3] - Investors are already grappling with worries over high valuations and the disruptive impact of artificial intelligence, with tariff-related news adding complexity to the market landscape [3] - Significant upcoming events include Trump's State of the Union address and Nvidia's earnings report, with potential for increased volatility in software stocks following the release of Anthropic's new model [3]

由于对AI可能冲击企业利润的担忧再度升温和持续的关税不确定性冲击风险偏好，美国股市下跌，债 券上涨。比特币短暂跌破65000美元，黄金走高。 随着投资者评估最新贸易动态影响，标普500指数下跌近1%，软件股领跌。DoorDash和美国运通下挫， 此前Citrini Research发文详述了人工智能可能对市场和全球经济产生影响的假设性情境。 在美国最高法院上周五裁定废除总统特朗普的"对等"关税后，白宫迅速以新的15%全球关税予以回应。 欧盟冻结了与美国贸易协议的批准程序，直至特朗普明确接下来的关税计划，此举为本已紧张的跨大西 洋关系注入新的经济动荡。 Landsberg Bennett Private Wealth Management的Michael Landsberg表示："关税博弈可能在今年余下时间 持续干扰市场，但波动性将小于去年4月的最初冲击。" Landsberg Bennett Private Wealth Management的Michael Landsberg表示："关税博弈可能在今年余下时间 持续干扰市场，但波动性将小于去年4月的最初冲击。" 美国国债收益率下跌，尽管交易员目前完全计入的美 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article summarizes significant rating changes from Wall Street that could impact market trends, highlighting upgrades, downgrades, and new coverage by various financial institutions [1][5]. Upgrades - Wells Fargo upgraded Alphabet (GOOGL) from Hold to Buy, raising the target price from $354 to $387, citing Google's leading position in key AI traits such as user data, channels, and computing power [7]. - Aletheia upgraded NVIDIA (NVDA) from Hold to Buy with a target price of $250, stating the stock is "too cheap to ignore" ahead of its quarterly earnings report [7]. - Lake Street upgraded Tandem Diabetes (TNDM) from Hold to Buy, increasing the target price from $14 to $50, believing the shift to a pharmacy model will yield stable growth and higher profit margins [7]. - UBS upgraded BlackRock (BLK) from Neutral to Buy, setting a target price of $1,280, based on strong Q4 performance and positive outlook from the UBS Financial Conference [7]. - Baird upgraded Henry Schein (HSIC) from Neutral to Outperform, raising the target price from $78 to $100, citing growth potential in its dental-related business [7]. Downgrades - Jefferies downgraded Workday (WDAY) from Buy to Hold, lowering the target price from $325 to $150, noting that application software stocks have underperformed the overall software sector [8]. - Bank of America downgraded General Mills (GIS) from Buy to Neutral, reducing the target price from $55 to $48, stating that previous growth expectations for the pet business and North American retail have failed [8]. - Baird downgraded Arcellx (ACLX) from Outperform to Neutral, with a target price adjustment from $106 to $115, following Gilead's acquisition announcement at $115 per share [8]. - JPMorgan downgraded VF Corporation (VFC) from Neutral to Underweight, lowering the target price from $19 to $18, and reducing earnings forecasts for 2027 and 2028 below market consensus [8]. - Jefferies downgraded Deere (DE) from Hold to Underperform, raising the target price from $475 to $550, indicating that the agricultural cycle is expected to bottom out this year [8]. New Coverage - Citigroup initiated coverage on York Space Systems (YSS) with a Buy rating and a target price of $37, describing it as a high-risk, high-reward opportunity in the space trend [9]. - Oppenheimer initiated coverage on Public Policy Holding Co (PPHC) with an Outperform rating and a target price of $16, noting its expansion into state and international lobbying [9]. - Citigroup initiated coverage on PicPay (PICS) with a Buy rating and a target price of $28, projecting an 85% potential upside due to its credit-related business growth [9]. - JPMorgan initiated coverage on Ethos (LIFE) with a Buy rating and a target price of $13, believing there is still growth potential through agency channels [9]. - DA Davidson initiated coverage on Bob's Discount Furniture (BOBS) with a Buy rating and a target price of $26, citing a large and fragmented industry poised for recovery [9].

Core Insights - DoorDash and American Express led declines in software and payment stocks, respectively, following a report from Citrini Research discussing hypothetical scenarios of AI's impact on the market and global economy [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - DoorDash's stock fell by 6.3% [1] - Uber's stock decreased by 3.8% [1] - Salesforce's stock dropped by 5.3% [1] - ServiceNow's stock declined by 4.3% [1] Group 2: Payment Stocks - Mastercard's stock fell by 3.65% [1] - Visa's stock decreased by 3.0% [1] - American Express's stock dropped by 7.5% [1] - First Capital Financial's stock declined by 6.4% [1] - Apollo Global Management's stock fell by 5.0% [1] - Blackstone's stock decreased by 7.4% [1] - KKR's stock dropped by 7.5% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market opened lower with significant fluctuations, while the storage concept Sandisk rose by 5%, contrasting with the mixed performance of major tech stocks, where Nvidia increased by over 1% and Tesla, Microsoft, and Amazon fell by more than 2% [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices experienced a low opening and volatility [1] - Sandisk, a storage concept stock, led the gains with a rise of 5% [1] - Major tech stocks showed a mixed performance, with Nvidia up over 1% and Tesla, Microsoft, and Amazon down more than 2% [1] Group 2: Software Sector - The software sector faced a significant decline, with AppLovin dropping over 8% [1] - DoorDash saw a decrease of over 7%, while Palantir and CrowdStrike fell by more than 5% [1] - Other companies like ServiceNow and Datadog also experienced declines of over 4% [1] Group 3: Pharmaceutical Sector - Novo Nordisk's stock plummeted by 14% after the company reported that its weight loss drug Cagrisema was less effective than Eli Lilly's Zepbound [1] - In contrast, Eli Lilly's stock rose by 3% following this news [1]

Global Assets: Rebalancing Continues - The current market rebalancing is based on internal and external recovery, with AI trading entering its second phase, leading to a focus on the actual impact of AI on various industries [3][13] - From February 16 to February 20, 2026, global risk assets showed an overall upward trend, but internal performance was mixed, with industrial, financial, and energy sectors gaining favor [3][13] - The focus has shifted from whether AI is a bubble to identifying the real industrial impacts and critical supply-demand issues as AI transitions from a thematic to a macro factor [3][13] Manufacturing Cycle Further Rising - The U.S. GDP data for Q4 2025 showed slower growth primarily due to government spending disruptions, while AI-related investments remained strong [4][25] - Non-AI and residential investment growth is showing signs of bottoming out, indicating a broader recovery in investment activities beyond just AI [4][25] - The February manufacturing PMI data indicated a recovery in global manufacturing, with Europe exceeding expectations and the U.S. maintaining expansion, suggesting a positive trend in manufacturing cycles [4][25][34] Commodities: Transitioning from Financial Overtrading to Industrial Pricing - Recent fluctuations in industrial and precious metals prices are attributed to macro and industrial events, with a return to real supply-demand signals expected [5][44] - Geopolitical risks continue to support industrial metal prices, while demand from tech giants for AI investments remains robust, indicating a potential new support for demand [5][44] - Historical data suggests that current copper and aluminum price ratios are low compared to historical manufacturing PMI levels, indicating potential for price recovery [5][44][45] Focus on Global Physical Assets vs. Chinese Assets - The core of market rebalancing is not about the existence of an AI bubble but rather the macro impacts of AI combined with monetary and major country policy choices [6][56] - The relative smooth path for future U.S. interest rate cuts is expected to support the recovery of the global manufacturing cycle, which may lead to a revaluation of Chinese asset capacity [6][56] - Specific investment recommendations include physical assets like copper, aluminum, and oil, as well as sectors benefiting from capital inflows and consumption recovery in China [6][56]

Market Overview - During the Spring Festival period, overseas markets were impacted by geopolitical tensions in Iran, ongoing concerns about AI in the US stock market, and the release of key economic data such as US CPI and GDP[2] - Gold and the US dollar index rose in tandem, while US Treasury yields, US stocks, and commodities initially declined before rebounding[2] Economic Data - The US GDP for Q4 2025 was reported at +1.4%, significantly below expectations of +2.8% and the previous quarter's +4.4%, primarily due to a -0.9% contribution from government spending[16] - Core CPI and PCE inflation remained sticky, with PCE inflation exceeding expectations, indicating ongoing inflationary pressures[14] Asset Performance - Silver led the performance among major assets during the Spring Festival with a 12.44% increase, driven by the escalation of the Iranian situation and rising oil prices[3] - European stock indices outperformed US stocks during this period, with the UK, France, and Germany leading the global equity market[3] Policy and Tariffs - The US Supreme Court ruled that Trump's IEEPA tariffs were illegal, leading to the announcement of a new 10% global tariff under Section 122, effective February 24[27] - Trump threatened to increase tariffs on certain economies from 10% to 15%, indicating potential legislative moves to solidify tariff legality[27] Future Outlook - The combination of better-than-expected US economic data and the Supreme Court ruling is expected to boost risk appetite, particularly benefiting export chains and cyclical sectors until mid-March[8] - A significant rebound in the US economy is anticipated in Q1 2026, driven by the end of the government shutdown's negative impact and the effects of previous interest rate cuts[26]

在美银首席策略师Michael Hartnett看来，2026年的市场逻辑已发生根本性位移：AI概念内部正在剧烈分化，资金流向正从美国溢出至日韩。 面对地缘政治的迷雾与高位震荡的美股，Hartnett认为，投资者应当短期"交易石油"，中期"持有黄金"；而美股若想打破当前"极度看涨却又滞 涨"的僵局，急需中东油价崩盘或中美贸易缓和这两大"外部冲击"来破局。 市场风格剧变？ 在美银（BofA）首席策略师Michael Hartnett看来，2026年的市场逻辑已与前两年截然不同。 如果说2024年和2025年是"AI领跑者"的独角戏，那么2026年的市场风格可能会发生剧变。Hartnett认为，市场正在抛弃那些资本开支巨大的"支出 者"，转而拥抱基础设施的"建设者"： 市场正在抛弃那些资本开支巨大的"支出者"（如科技七巨头Mag7），转而拥抱基础设施的"建设者"（如半导体与原材料）；资金也在 从"被颠覆者"（软件股）撤离，流向AI技术的"应用者"（银行股）。 当然，剧烈的板块轮动也会带来风险。当前，科技、电信和金融板块合计占据标普500指数56%的权重，一旦领跌股的市值蒸发速度超过领涨股的 拉升速度，大盘将面临崩 ...