其中，道指和标普500指数均在盘中直线跳水翻绿，而纳指则在盘中走高。 美联储12月降息已成大概率事件，特朗普再度发声，称将是否支持立即大幅降息作为挑选新任美联储主席的试金石。 12月9日，美股三大股指小幅波动，涨跌不一。截至收盘，道指跌0.38%，标普500指数跌0.09%，纳指涨0.13%。 个股方面，美光科技涨超2%，特斯拉、谷歌涨逾1%，迈威尔科技跌超3%，脸书跌逾1%。 中概股方面，纳斯达克中国金龙指数跌1.37%。个股方面，百度集团跌超4%，贝壳跌近4%，信也科技跌近4%，小鹏汽车跌超3%，雾芯科技跌超3%。 黄金方面，今早（12月10日），现货黄金低开后突然拉涨。 高盛则称，市场普遍预期美联储将在本周的12月联邦公开市场委员会会议上，连续第三次降息25个基点，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调至3.5%—3.75%。 然而，此次降息预计将伴随"鹰派"信号，表明未来进一步放宽政策的门槛已经提高。 消息面上，美联储12月议息结果即将公布，市场静待美联储降息，资金避险情绪升温，波动较小。 白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特表示，他认为美联储还有很大降息空间。消息人士称，哈塞特在一众美联储主席候选人中最受特朗普顾 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Morgan Stanley upgraded China stocks to "Overweight" [2] 2. Core Viewpoints - The main indices of the two markets fluctuated and declined on Tuesday, with some short - term profit - taking funds exiting. In the future, the capital side will be under pressure, and the market is expected to operate weakly. It is recommended to gradually exit long positions in stock index futures and wait for new opportunities, and not to participate in stock index call options for the time being [1][3] - In 2026, the profit growth rate of all A - shares is expected to rise from 6% this year to 8%. Multiple factors will help the valuation of the A - share market rise further. The risk of a sharp rise in the Chinese stock market in 2026 is much higher than that of a sharp decline [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Tuesday, the main indices of the two markets fluctuated and declined, with the trading volume slightly increasing. The CSI 300 Index closed at 4598 points, down 23 points (-0.51%); the SSE 50 Index closed at 2997 points, down 21 points (-0.71%); the CSI 500 Index closed at 7121 points, down 51 points (-0.71%); the CSI 1000 Index closed at 7380 points, down 42 points (-0.57%). The net inflow of settled funds in CSI 1000 Index futures was 500 million yuan [1] - Among industry and theme ETFs, those with the highest gains were communication ETFs, 5G ETFs, etc., and those with the highest losses were gold stock ETFs, industrial non - ferrous ETFs, etc. Among the sector indices of the two markets, those with the highest gains were components, consumer electronics, etc., and those with the highest losses were forestry, industrial metals, etc. [1] Important Information - Domestic AI company Zhipu AI officially announced the open - source of its core AI Agent model - AutoGLM, which may be the "intelligent driving moment" for the mobile phone industry [1] - From January to September 2025, global gas turbine orders increased by 54% year - on - year in GW terms, with US orders surging by over 200% [1] - Dalio believes that the global economy will face risks in the next one to two years due to the overlap of debt, political conflicts, and geopolitical cycles. Attention should be paid to the catalysts for the bursting of the AI bubble [1] - AR glasses Project Aura deeply integrates Gemini AI, and its founder believes that the incremental data brought by glasses may be the only way for AI to reach AGI [1] - The explosion of AI computing power has led to a shortage of automotive storage chips, with the satisfaction rate in 2026 possibly less than 50% [1] - The US President has approved NVIDIA to export its H200 AI chips to China, which may help NVIDIA regain billions of dollars in business [2] - SoftBank and NVIDIA are in talks to invest in Skild AI, a robot basic model developer, and the financing may value Skild AI at $14 billion [2] - Goldman Sachs clients are withdrawing their bullish views on AI and the US stock market, and investors' expectations for the S&P 500 Index in 2026 have become more conservative [2] - Analysts expect the Fed's interest rate cut decision this week to be accompanied by a hawkish tone, and the global market expects many countries to restart interest rate hikes in 2026 [2] - Technology giants' extension of the depreciation period of AI chips and other equipment can boost book profits, but the market's focus is on the long - term return on investment [2] - Six conservative justices of the US Supreme Court questioned a 1935 precedent, while three liberal justices warned against overthrowing the long - term position protection mechanism [2] - The US President announced $12 billion in agricultural aid funds from tariff revenues, to be distributed by the end of February 2026 [2] Market Logic - The main indices of the two markets fluctuated and declined on Tuesday, with some short - term profit - taking funds exiting. The chairman of the CSRC emphasized the role of the capital market, and analysts believe that the A - share market's valuation will rise in 2026. International funds are flowing into the Chinese stock market, and NVIDIA's CEO believes that China will win the AI competition [1][2] Future Outlook - The Politburo will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy. Global funds are increasing their positions in Chinese stocks. The CSRC chairman supports technological innovation. Morgan Stanley is optimistic about the Chinese stock market in 2026. Industry insiders believe there is no AI bubble in the next three years. Google plans to increase AI computing power. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December has exceeded 90%. The US has adjusted its economic relations with China, which will accelerate the flow of global funds to the Chinese capital market. The market is expected to operate weakly [3] Trading Strategies - For stock index futures directional trading, gradually exit long positions and wait for new opportunities [3] - For stock index option trading, do not participate in stock index call options for the time being [3]

Market Overview - US stock market showed mixed performance ahead of the Federal Reserve's decision, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones experiencing two consecutive declines, while the Nasdaq saw a slight rebound, closing with a 0.13% increase [1] - Morgan Stanley led the decline in the Dow, dropping nearly 5%, while Nvidia fell 0.3% and Broadcom rose over 1%, reaching a historical high [1] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell by 1.37%, with Baidu down nearly 5% and Xpeng down over 3% [1] Economic Indicators - Unexpected improvement in US job vacancies led to a rise in the dollar index, reaching a one-week high, while US Treasury prices fell, causing a V-shaped recovery in yields, with the 10-year Treasury yield nearing a two-month high [2][3] - Bitcoin surged over 5%, surpassing $94,000, and Ethereum rose nearly 10% following the job vacancy report [3] Corporate Developments - Microsoft announced a total of $23 billion in new AI investments, including $17.5 billion in India, marking the largest investment in Asia [4] - SpaceX is reportedly seeking to go public in 2026, aiming to raise over $30 billion with a valuation of $1.5 trillion, marking a potential record IPO [3] Industry Insights - Huawei's automotive division announced a strategic partnership to enhance its electric vehicle offerings, with a significant increase in sales reported for November, achieving a record monthly delivery of 81,864 units, up 89.61% year-on-year [7] - The establishment of a multi-crystalline silicon capacity integration acquisition platform, Beijing Guanghe Qiancheng Technology Co., Ltd., with a registered capital of 3 billion yuan, aims to explore strategic cooperation opportunities within the industry [8] - The upcoming 2025 Computing Power Industry Ecosystem High-Quality Development Conference will focus on the future of the computing power industry, highlighting the growth of AI computing hardware [9] Retail Sector Trends - The retail industry in China is undergoing a transformation from scale expansion to quality enhancement, with expectations for the market size to exceed 50 trillion yuan by 2025, growing at a steady rate of 5-8% [11]

（原标题：专访中国英国商会主席：英企对华信心日趋乐观，三成计划扩大投资） 南方财经21世纪经济报道记者郑青亭 北京报道 "目前，约三分之一的受访企业计划扩大投资，略超40%的企业保持现状，仅有极少数考虑缩减。市场 规模与完善的基础设施是重要支撑。更重要的是，在全球充满不确定性的环境下，中国展现出更强的可 预测性与稳定性，这对英国企业极具吸引力。" 中国英国商会主席陶克瑞(Chris Torrens)在北京接受21世 纪经济报道记者专访时说道。 12月9日，中国英国商会正式发布《在华英国企业：2025-26年度商业信心调查报告》（以下简称报 告）。报告表明，英国企业总体对其在中国市场的前景日趋乐观，多个重点行业认为明年有望成为疫情 以来业务表现最为强劲的一年。 陶克瑞表示，"这种积极态势与英国对华坚持务实合作的政策密不可分。今年以来，两国重启经济财金 对话，经贸联委会等重要政府间合作机制，为解决市场准入等议题提供了更加稳定、透明的沟通框 架。" 本次调查报告共收录超过300家在中国大陆运营的英国企业的观点与预期。报告显示，英国在华企业全 年营收预期较去年小幅回升，38%的企业预计2025年收入将高于2024年， ...

Economic Outlook - The core scenario for the U.S. economy in 2025 is described as a "Goldilocks scenario," where the economy experiences moderate growth without overheating or cooling excessively, with inflation returning to the 2% target, indicating a soft landing [2] Inflation Analysis - The U.S. PCE inflation data for September shows a year-on-year increase of 2.8% for both overall and core PCE, with the overall PCE rising by 0.1 percentage points from August, while core PCE decreased by 0.1 percentage points [3] - The increase in overall PCE inflation is primarily driven by a 0.5% rise in commodity prices, marking the largest monthly increase this year, with energy prices leading at a 1.7% increase [3] - Service prices in the U.S. only increased by 0.2%, with notable stagnation in financial services and dining sectors, while the SuperCore PCE year-on-year growth slightly decreased to 3.25% [3] - Housing inflation, a persistent component of service inflation, is significantly declining, and discounts from retailers have led to a slowdown in price increases for various categories [4] Consumer Behavior - U.S. residents' income growth has slowed, particularly affecting middle and low-income groups, leading to cautious spending behavior; the inflation-adjusted personal disposable income grew by only 0.1% in September, with personal savings rates at 4.7% [5] - The ISM services PMI index for November indicates a decrease in service and material payment prices, supporting the trend of cooling service inflation [5] Economic Growth Factors - Economic growth is slowing due to uncertainties from tariffs and geopolitical factors, with employment levels in a low recruitment state and a slight increase in unemployment rates [5] - The federal government shutdown is expected to negatively impact GDP growth by a few tenths of a percentage point, but a rebound may occur in the first quarter of the following year [5] - The primary driver of economic growth is large-scale investments in AI and related infrastructure, alongside increased consumption from middle and high-income earners [5] Future Risks and Uncertainties - Potential new risks for the U.S. economy include concerns over an AI bubble, high government debt, and other unforeseen events; however, the probability of economic recession may remain contained due to the Federal Reserve's ability to implement interest rate cuts and other monetary and fiscal policies [6]

近期，一些国际机构将未来2年至5年的金价目标位设定在4500美元甚至5000美元左右。但要看到，金价 走势存在较大不确定性，未来金价走势受多重因素特别是国际局势变化的影响。综合来看，国际金价中 长期的价位仍取决于世界经济状况和地缘政治走向。主导金价的多空因素仍将继续博弈，市场的拉锯与 震荡或将成为常态。 一些国际机构日前作出预测称，金价未来仍有较大上涨空间。高盛对2026年底的金价预期已上调为每盎 司4900美元，花旗银行甚至认为中长期的金价可能挑战5000美元。不过，在看好金价前景的同时，其走 势存在较大不确定性，其中变数不小。 2020年国际黄金价格首次突破每盎司2000美元，之后曾历经反复，直到2023年才真正站稳这一关口，进 而刮起一阵阵"黄金风暴"，推动金价快速上涨，很快突破每盎司3000美元，在今年10月初突破4000美元 关口。受此影响，国内金价水涨船高，足金饰品已突破1100元人民币/克、工艺金条突破1040元人民币/ 克。 国际金价从今年3月突破每盎司3000美元到10月突破每盎司4000美元，年内涨幅在历史上最狂热的黄金 牛市中也是罕见的。涨幅过大、涨速过快，出现技术性回调与震荡的概率也在 ...

Paired with high-deductible healthcare plans, health savings accounts help ease healthcare costs. HSAs are a triple tax-advantaged vehicle in the tax code, allowing for pretax contributions, tax-free compounding, and tax-free withdrawals for qualified medical expenses. However, few owners fund their HSAs to the maximum, and even fewer invest their HSA dollars outside a savings account. Most consumers likely don’t fill their HSAs because they lack the financial means; critics note that the HDHP/HSA combina ...

Group 1 - The global macroeconomic environment remains complex in the first half of this year, with preliminary statistics indicating that the investment returns of the China Investment Corporation (CIC) exceeded the board's assessment indicators for the first half of 2025 [1] Group 2 - Central Huijin Company, a subsidiary of CIC, will continue to play a stabilizing role in the capital market, adhering to a work guideline of seeking progress while maintaining stability in 2024 [2] - The company aims to enhance the governance effectiveness of state-owned financial capital and support the high-quality development of its controlled and participating institutions [2] - Central Huijin will optimize the entrusted management system of state-owned financial capital and explore innovative equity management tools to improve corporate governance and core competitiveness of its controlled institutions [2] - The company will strengthen risk prevention capabilities by establishing a comprehensive risk monitoring framework and enhancing risk warning mechanisms for its controlled institutions [2] - Since 2025, the equity relationships of seven institutions have been transferred to Central Huijin, which will exercise shareholder rights in accordance with investment ratios and company charters [2] Group 3 - Central Huijin has been a crucial strategic force in maintaining capital market stability, functioning similarly to a "stabilization fund" [3] - The company will continue to act as a stabilizer in the capital market to support smooth market operations in the future [3]

Group 1 - Longhua District announced the establishment of a hundred billion-level strategic emerging industry fund cluster, with the two largest funds each having a total scale of 2 billion yuan, namely the Deep Capital Jianxin Longhua AIC Fund and the Deep Guarantee Agricultural Bank Longhua AIC Fund [1] - The fund cluster will focus on key sectors such as digital economy, new energy, high-end medical devices, integrated circuits, and artificial intelligence, aligning with Shenzhen's "20+8" industrial cluster and Longhua's "1+2+3" industrial system [1] - The Deep Guarantee Agricultural Bank Longhua AIC Fund has completed the signing of its first batch of intended investment projects, which include high-quality potential listed companies in the fields of liquid cooling heat dissipation, precision laser equipment, and automated testing equipment [1] Group 2 - Longhua District is enhancing its inclusive financial support for specialized, innovative, and high-growth startups, having provided credit support of 160 billion yuan to over 31,000 enterprises [2] - A financial matrix service was launched at the conference, offering 100 billion yuan in credit, exclusive financial products, and preferential loan rates tailored for various market entities, including gazelle enterprises, unicorns, specialized and innovative small giants, and manufacturing champions [2]

Market Outlook - The market is expected to remain constructive through the end of the year and into the next year, with a focus on earnings-driven growth rather than high beta rallies [1][2] - A transition is anticipated from a market characterized by high price-to-earnings (PE) ratios to one that is more focused on earnings, leading to moderate returns compared to the strong double-digit gains seen in recent years [2] Interest Rates and Market Impact - The 10-year yield is currently at 4.18%, with concerns about market performance if it approaches 4.5%, which has historically been a threshold for broader market struggles [3][4][5] - The correlation between interest rates and market breadth is noted, with rising rates typically leading to a deterioration in market breadth and impacting rate-sensitive sectors first, such as home builders [4][5] Sector Performance - Financials are highlighted as a potential area for broadening market performance, with transportation stocks showing significant improvement since Thanksgiving, indicating a positive outlook for cyclical data [6][7] - Transportation stocks are expected to outperform when manufacturing activity improves, as indicated by anticipatory leading indicators pointing upwards, suggesting a positive trend for PMI manufacturing data in 2026 [7][8]