Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced significant activity on September 22, with a total of 73 stocks hitting the daily limit up, indicating strong investor interest and market momentum [1]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Hangzhou Dianzi shares (杭电股份) achieved a five-day consecutive limit up, driven by the optical communication sector [1]. - Demingli (德明利), a storage chip concept stock, recorded a two-day consecutive limit up, reflecting positive sentiment in the semiconductor industry [1]. Group 2: Notable Stocks and Concepts - ST Zhengping (*ST正平) led with seven consecutive limit ups in the road and bridge engineering sector [1]. - Yunnan Tourism (云南旅游) and Huashu Technology (华软科技) both saw four and two consecutive limit ups respectively, indicating growing interest in humanoid robots and fine chemicals [1]. - Other notable stocks include Red Bean Shares (红豆股份) with three consecutive limit ups in new retail, and Fulongma (福龙马) also with three in the robotics sector [1].

Market Overview - The three major stock indices experienced narrow fluctuations in the morning, followed by a rebound in the afternoon, with the Sci-Tech 50 Index rising significantly [1] - As of the market close, the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.22% to 3828.58 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.67% to 13157.97 points, and the ChiNext Index gained 0.55% to 3107.89 points [1] - The Sci-Tech 50 Index saw a notable increase of 3.38%, while the total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 21,427 billion [1] Sector Performance - Sectors such as tourism, catering, liquor, food and beverage, media, retail, and banking experienced declines [1] - The semiconductor sector showed strong performance, while brokerage and automotive sectors also saw gains [1] - Consumer electronics and CPO concepts were active in the market [1] Analyst Insights - According to CITIC Securities, the market remains at a high level without a clear trend of topping or retreating [1] - There is an increasing rotation among previously popular sectors, with the overall index in a phase of horizontal consolidation [1] - Historical reference suggests that the final support level may align with the 60-day moving average, indicating a likelihood of continued sector rotation and declines in high-performing stocks [1] - The recommendation is to maintain a horizontal mindset in the short term, focusing on sector rotation and individual stocks rather than the overall index [1]

Core Insights - Poland's government imposed a sudden ban on all land border crossings with Belarus citing national security, which has led to significant disruptions in the Eurasian logistics network [2] - The closure of the border has resulted in a paralysis of the Central European freight routes, particularly affecting the Malaszewicze transshipment station, which handles approximately 90% of freight volume for the Central European Railway [2][4] - The crisis has triggered a chain reaction affecting various industries, with logistics costs rising over 15%, production halts in major companies, and significant unemployment risks for local logistics workers [4][6] Logistics and Supply Chain Impact - Over 300 freight trains have been stranded, leading to a backlog of 30,000 containers, impacting the supply of Christmas goods and essential electronic components [2][4] - Major companies like Volkswagen have halted production due to chip shortages, incurring daily losses of €2 million [4] - The crisis has prompted companies to diversify their supply chains, with some increasing local procurement rates and investing in alternative manufacturing locations [9][11] Geopolitical and Trade Dynamics - The Polish government's decision is viewed as a political maneuver against China's stance on the Ukraine issue, despite the significant trade relationship between Poland and China, which reached €28.7 billion in 2024 [6][8] - China is actively working to secure the Central European Railway as part of its Belt and Road Initiative, while also developing alternative logistics routes through Central Asia and the South [8] - The crisis has highlighted divisions within the EU, with neighboring countries urging Poland to reopen its borders to avoid further supply chain disruptions [8] Future Outlook - The ongoing situation may lead to a permanent loss of Poland's status as a logistics hub for Central Europe, as companies adapt to new supply chain routes and logistics networks [13] - The construction of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway is expected to shorten freight distances and increase annual capacity significantly [8][13] - The crisis could serve as a pivotal moment for global supply chain diversification, reshaping trade routes and logistics networks across Eurasia [13]

Group 1 - The EU has initiated an economic battle against Russia, targeting its energy sector and countries closely related to Russia [1] - The EU plans to completely cut off energy imports from Russia in the coming years, which threatens the low-cost oil and gas supply that supports the living standards of European citizens [1] - The EU is also focusing on affordable consumer goods from Asian countries, which have helped low-income European households maintain a decent living [1] Group 2 - A significant customs inspection operation at the Greek port of Piraeus has led to the seizure of over 2,400 containers from China, allegedly involved in tax evasion, resulting in an estimated loss of around 800 million euros in tax revenue for EU countries [3] - The European Public Prosecutor's Office has emphasized a crackdown on illegal trade practices, with ongoing investigations and the detention of a Chinese cargo ship [3] - Poland's indefinite closure of its border with Belarus, justified by joint military exercises, has caused a backlog of goods and is seen as a covert sanction against Chinese trade through the Russia-Belarus route [3][5] Group 3 - The land transport route through Russia is the most efficient channel for Chinese goods entering Europe, with trade volume expected to surge by 150% to 25 billion euros in 2024 [5] - This route, which accounts for 90% of China-Europe rail freight, is now paralyzed, undermining the rapid delivery advantage of Chinese companies [5] - Poland's actions have resulted in over 1,400 Polish trucks being stranded in Belarus, indicating a detrimental impact on its own logistics [7] Group 4 - The EU's economic coercion may underestimate China's countermeasures, driven by ideological biases and a desire to align with the U.S. [9] - In response, China has initiated testing of the Arctic shipping route, with the first container ship set to depart from Ningbo, potentially reshaping global logistics and providing Russia with a new strategic foothold [11]

Core Insights - The Hong Kong Investment Promotion Agency is promoting Hong Kong as a key link between mainland China and the Asian market during a visit to South America, highlighting its role as a "super connector" and "super value creator" [1][2] - The South American market shows strong growth potential, with local businesses actively seeking opportunities in Asia, particularly in mainland China and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area [1] Group 1 - The Assistant Director of the Hong Kong Investment Promotion Agency, Liu Zhiyuan, is visiting Buenos Aires, Argentina, and Lima, Peru, from September 22 to September 26 to enhance trade relations [1] - During the visit to Argentina, Liu will meet with the Argentine Investment and International Trade Promotion Bureau to discuss the local business environment and cooperation opportunities, promoting Hong Kong's advantages in finance, regulations, innovation, and establishing international or regional headquarters [1] - In Peru, Liu will engage with the Peruvian Export and Tourism Promotion Board and participate in the 2025 International Food Exhibition, meeting local food export companies to introduce Hong Kong's unique business advantages and opportunities [1] Group 2 - Liu will meet with representatives from South American companies interested in establishing a business presence in Hong Kong, covering sectors such as food trade, agricultural exports, technology, e-commerce, brand development, and retail [2] - The economic cooperation between Hong Kong and Argentina and Peru is frequent, with bilateral trade amounts projected to reach 3 billion HKD and 6 billion HKD respectively in 2024 [2] - Peru is a participant in the Belt and Road Initiative, with bilateral trade with Hong Kong growing nearly 10% annually since 2020, and a Free Trade Agreement signed in 2024 to further promote investment flows and economic development [2]

Group 1 - The overall consumption market in China remained stable in August 2025, with total retail sales of consumer goods reaching 3.97 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%, which is 1.3 percentage points higher than the same period last year [1] - Cumulative retail sales from January to August reached 32.39 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.6%, which is 1.2 percentage points higher than the same period last year [1] Group 2 - Goods consumption showed steady growth, with retail sales in August increasing by 3.6%. Sales of home appliances, furniture, and communication equipment saw significant increases of 18.6%, 14.3%, 14.2%, and 7.3% respectively [1] - Key retail enterprises reported year-on-year sales growth of 20.7% for tablets, 17.7% for smart air conditioners, and 8.2% for mobile phones in August [1] - Passenger car retail sales increased by 4.6% year-on-year in August [1] Group 3 - Service consumption experienced rapid growth, driven by increased demand for tourism and leisure activities during the summer. Service retail sales grew by 5.1% year-on-year from January to August [1] - The total box office for summer movies reached 11.97 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.8% [1] Group 4 - New types of consumption, including digital, green, and health-related consumption, continued to grow rapidly, with online retail sales reaching 10 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.6% [2] - Retail sales of physical goods online reached 8.1 trillion yuan, growing by 6.4% [2] - Retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles increased by 7.5% year-on-year, with a penetration rate of 55.2% [2] Group 5 - Inbound consumption continued to expand, with the "Purchase in China" initiative gaining momentum. The number of tax refund stores exceeded 10,000 by the end of August, and sales of tax refund goods increased by 97.5% year-on-year [2] - The number of individuals enjoying tax refunds increased by 2.5 times year-on-year [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the commodity index rose slightly after reaching a high and then falling back, with industrial products rising slightly and agricultural products continuing to weaken. Macro factors are mixed, and fundamentals may dominate the trend. The commodity market may maintain a volatile trend, and subsequent attention should be paid to macro policies, trade negotiations, geopolitical factors, and changes in peak - season demand [3]. - Overseas, the new round of China - US talks reached a basic framework consensus, the Fed cut interest rates, US retail sales grew, and the Eurozone's economic sentiment index increased [3]. - Domestically, due to factors such as slowing export growth, economic downward pressure has increased in August. It is expected that new incremental measures will be introduced in the fourth - quarter macro - policies, focusing on fiscal support, central bank interest rate cuts, and promoting the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Views - **Influencing Factors and Main Logic**: This week, the commodity index showed a trend of rising and then falling, with industrial products rising slightly and agricultural products weakening. The first half of the week was stimulated by factors such as progress in China - US trade negotiations and rising Fed interest - rate cut expectations, while the second half was suppressed by the landing of interest - rate cut expectations and the rebound of the US dollar index [3]. - **Overseas Situation**: From September 14th to 15th, China and the US reached a basic framework consensus in Madrid. On September 18th, the Fed cut the federal funds rate to 4.00% - 4.25%. On September 16th, US retail sales in August increased by 0.6% month - on - month, and the Eurozone's ZEW economic sentiment index in September rose [3]. - **Domestic Situation**: In August, due to factors like slowing export growth, economic downward pressure increased. It is expected that in the fourth quarter, new incremental measures will be introduced, with the core being fiscal support, central bank interest - rate cuts, and promoting the real estate market to stabilize. The joint efforts of fiscal and monetary policies will focus on "stabilizing investment" and "promoting consumption" [3]. - **Commodity Views**: Macro factors are mixed. The commodity market may maintain a volatile trend, and subsequent attention should be paid to macro policies, trade negotiations, geopolitical factors, and changes in peak - season demand [3]. PART TWO: Overseas Situation Analysis - The new round of China - US talks reached a basic framework consensus on issues such as resolving the TikTok issue, reducing investment barriers, and promoting economic and trade cooperation [3]. - The Fed cut the federal funds rate to 4.00% - 4.25%, and the "restart of easing" will have an important impact on market liquidity [3]. - US retail sales in August increased by 0.6% month - on - month, exceeding market expectations, and the real retail sales after CPI adjustment increased by 2.1% year - on - year, achieving positive growth for the 11th consecutive month [3]. - The Eurozone's ZEW economic sentiment index in September rose, and the industrial output in July rebounded slightly [3]. PART THREE: Domestic Situation Analysis - In August, due to factors such as slowing export growth, the year - on - year growth rates of industrial production, investment, and consumption continued to decline, and economic downward pressure increased. It is expected that new incremental measures will be introduced in the fourth - quarter macro - policies to ensure the achievement of the annual economic growth target of "around 5.0%" [3]. - The cumulative growth rate of tax revenue turning positive is a positive signal, but the year - on - year decline in the transfer income of state - owned land use rights indicates that local land finance still faces certain pressure [3]. - Nine departments jointly issued policies to expand service consumption, proposing 19 specific measures from five aspects [3]. PART FOUR: High - Frequency Data Tracking - **开工率数据**: The operating rates of the polyester industry chain and blast furnaces are presented in the data, such as the operating rates of terephthalic acid, polyester, and weaving in the polyester industry chain, as well as the national and Tangshan blast furnace operating rates [33]. - **汽车销售数据**: The data shows the year - on - year growth rates of factory wholesale and retail sales, and specific sales data for September [42][45]. - **农产品价格数据**: The data includes the average wholesale prices of 28 key monitored vegetables, pork, and the 200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices [47].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 4%-4.25%, with an expectation of an additional 50 basis points reduction by the end of the year, indicating a more dovish stance compared to previous projections [1][7] - Fed Chairman Powell characterized the rate cut as a "risk management" decision, highlighting concerns about a weakening labor market and rising risks to employment [1][7] - The market had largely priced in the 25 basis point cut prior to the announcement, leading to a mixed reaction in the dollar index and U.S. stock markets post-announcement [1][7] Group 2 - U.S. retail sales for August increased by 0.6%, up from a previous value of 0.5%, indicating a slight improvement in consumer spending [2][8] - Initial jobless claims decreased to 231,000 from 264,000, while continuing claims fell to 1.92 million from 1.93 million, suggesting resilience in the labor market [2][8] - The economic backdrop is characterized by a "stagflation-like" environment, with inflation concerns persisting despite the Fed's actions [1][7] Group 3 - Major global asset classes showed mixed performance, with the Nasdaq Composite Index rising by 2.21%, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.30% [2][28] - In the commodities market, CBOT corn saw the largest increase at 6.46%, while LME three-month lead experienced the largest decline at 0.72% [2][47] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 8 basis points to 4.14%, reflecting a divergence in global long-term interest rates [2][48]

Core Points - The event titled "Dadong Mountain Water Welcomes the World, Citizens' Consumption Joyful Purchase" was held in the newly renovated Jiangbei Park in Jilin City on September 21 [1] - The event aimed to stimulate consumer market vitality and inject new momentum into the economic development of Jilin City [4] Group 1: Event Overview - The event featured a lively atmosphere with decorations such as red lanterns enhancing the festive spirit [3] - Various local delicacies and specialty products attracted citizens and tourists, encouraging them to taste, observe, and linger [3] Group 2: Exhibition Highlights - The event included four main exhibition areas: automobiles, food, specialty products, and discounted goods, providing a one-stop shopping experience [4] - Popular food offerings included over 20 types of local snacks such as Changsha stinky tofu, Wuhan hot dry noodles, and Mongolian barbecue [6] - The specialty products area showcased nearly a hundred booths featuring products from Jilin, Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, Dalian, and Harbin, including imported goods, premium fruits, and daily necessities [6] - An entertainment area for families was set up with activities like rock climbing, small trampolines, ring toss, and flying fish games [6] Group 3: Organizers - The event was organized by the Jilin City Media Center and Jilin City Media Group, with support from the Longtan District People's Government and China Construction Bank Jilin Branch [8]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index fell by 0.99%, down 263 points, closing at 26,281 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index dropped by 1.18% [1] - Apple-related stocks surged due to strong pre-order demand for new iPhone models, with companies like Q Technology rising by 9%, Sunny Optical Technology increasing by 5.9%, and GoerTek up by 10% [1] - Yihua Tong saw a rise of over 16% after partnering with Toyota to establish a fuel cell company, while also announcing the termination of the acquisition of Xuyang Hydrogen Energy [1] - Hong Teng Precision surged over 17%, benefiting significantly from the ramp-up of rack-level AI servers [1] - Baiguoyuan Group increased by over 22%, planning to raise over 300 million HKD through a share placement, indicating early signs of strategic adjustment effectiveness [1] Group 2 - Kaisa Capital rose by over 10% after a Hong Kong court rejected a winding-up petition against Kaisa Group, as the company expands its RWA business [2] - China Qinfa saw an increase of over 5% due to improved profitability in its Indonesian operations and tax rate advantages on mining license fees [2] - Yunzhihui Technology skyrocketed by over 100%, with a 133% increase in early trading after announcing a global strategic partnership with UBTECH [2] - WuXi AppTec rose by over 6%, reaching a new high after finalizing subscription agreement matters, with WuXi Biologics' shareholding exceeding 50% [2] - Huiju Technology increased by over 11% after OpenAI partnered with Luxshare Precision to develop AI hardware, with the company being a member of the Luxshare system [2] - The demand for Chinese export container shipping appears weak, with ocean freight market rates continuing to adjust, leading to declines in shipping stocks such as COSCO Shipping Energy, which fell over 6%, and Seaspan International, down over 5% [2] - West Air experienced a drop of over 8% following a recent crash of its SR22T single-engine aircraft [2] Group 3 - Hong Kong Broadband fell by over 4% after China Mobile Hong Kong completed a tender offer, planning to raise public shareholding ratio through a share placement [3]