Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that after reaching the monthly target of 4018, the market is not expected to accelerate quickly but rather enter a consolidation phase to digest overheating and rebuild order through time and turnover [1] - The monthly strategy focuses on avoiding emotional trading and prioritizing discipline, with the goal of managing overheating rather than seeking continuous upward movement [1] Group 2 - The weekly analysis indicates that different indices are in varying stages of consolidation, with the Shenzhen Composite and ChiNext leading the recovery after completing their respective digestion phases, while the Shanghai Composite is in a typical topping structure [2] - The strategy for the week highlights that effective risk control is based on following structural trends rather than making predictions, allowing for fluctuations as long as key support levels are maintained [2] Group 3 - The daily analysis identifies 3918 as a critical resistance level and 3888 as a significant support level, with the market transitioning from a repair phase to a topping phase after stabilizing above 3888 [3][4] - The analysis suggests that the optimal strategy is to monitor the market's behavior around these key levels rather than chasing breakouts, focusing on maintaining strength above 3888 [4] Group 4 - The hourly analysis describes a typical healthy pullback pattern during the upward trend, confirming support levels while digesting short-term profit-taking [5] - It is noted that during strong market conditions, the focus should be on confirmation points rather than emotional trading [5] Group 5 - The rotation of market hotspots is centered around two main lines of attack, particularly in technology hardware and metals, indicating a clear trend in sector performance [6] - The strategy emphasizes understanding the rhythm of sector rotation and selectively investing in strong directions while being patient with underperforming sectors [6] Group 6 - The operational strategy advises focusing on sector trends before individual stock trends, with specific guidelines for managing positions based on moving averages [6] - The mindset should prioritize discipline and adherence to rules, emphasizing that the essence of a slow bull market is not daily gains but consistent adherence to a repeatable strategy [6]

来源：新闻晨报 12月23日，黄金、白银等贵金属价格再度全线暴涨，多个品种刷新历史纪录，市场资金情绪被彻底点 燃。盘中，现货黄金最高触及4497美元/盎司，距离4500美元/盎司大关仅一步之遥；COMEX黄金期货 则率先突破4500美元/盎司大关。今年以来，金价已50次改写历史新高。 国内市场同样火热。上期所沪金期货盘中最高触及1018元/克，再度站上"千元关口"；金饰方面，今日 有多家品牌足金饰品报价首次站上每克1400元上方。 老庙黄金足金饰品标价1402元/克，较前一日1367元/克的价格上涨35元/克。 今年以来，国际现货黄金涨幅已超70%，以人民币计价的现货黄金价格累计上涨超64%。 有网友崩溃：结婚三金预算直接翻倍！ | 铂金价格 | 368.00 | 足金价格 | 1342.00 | 铂金价格 | 599.00 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | t.d. 太阳金店 | | | | | | | 1179.00 | | | | | | | 铂金价格 | 589.00 | | | | | 国内金饰方面，周生生足金饰品标价1403元/克，较前一日1367 ...

Core Insights - The price of silver has reached a historic high of over $70 per ounce, while gold has also surpassed $4,497 per ounce, marking significant annual increases of over 140% for silver and over 70% for gold [1][2][3] Price Movements - As of December 23, 2023, silver's price has increased by 140.77% year-to-date, significantly outperforming gold's 70.89% increase [3] - The historical price ratio between gold and silver typically fluctuates between 50 to 80 times, but this year it exceeded 100 times after a surge in gold prices [5] Market Dynamics - The recent surge in precious metal prices is attributed to multiple macroeconomic factors, including the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, which has reduced the attractiveness of cash and short-term bonds, driving investment towards gold and silver [5] - Geopolitical tensions have also heightened market uncertainty, contributing to increased demand for precious metals as a safe haven [6] Industrial Demand for Silver - Silver's industrial demand is projected to grow by approximately 5,000 tons from 2016 to 2024, with its applications in solar energy, electric vehicles, and AI data centers becoming increasingly critical [9] - The World Silver Association reports that industrial demand for silver is expected to rise from 153,000 tons in 2016 to 204,000 tons in 2024 [9] Comparison with Oil Market - In contrast to the booming silver market, the oil market is experiencing a downturn, reflecting a slowdown in global economic activity and a long-term trend towards energy transition [10] - The rise of electric vehicles is expected to peak global oil demand around 2030, while non-OPEC countries are increasing production, leading to an oversupply in the oil market [10]

Report Overview - Report Title: Commodity Quantitative CTA Weekly Tracking [1] - Report Date: December 23, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Guotou Futures Research Institute, Financial Engineering Group [2] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The proportion of long positions in commodities increased slightly this week. The factor strength of precious metals remained high, while that of the agricultural products sector decreased slightly. The precious metals and non - ferrous sectors were relatively strong in cross - section, the black and energy sectors were above the neutral range, and the agricultural products sector was relatively weak [3]. - In the methanol strategy, the inventory factor weakened by 0.02% last week, the synthetic factor declined by 0.02%, and the comprehensive signal this week is long. In the float glass strategy, the synthetic factor increased by 1.38% last week, and the comprehensive signal this week is short. In the iron ore strategy, the comprehensive factor weakened by 0.19% last week, and the comprehensive signal this week remains neutral. In the lead strategy, the synthetic factor strengthened by 0.42% last week, and the comprehensive signal this week changed from short to long [5][8][10] Section Summaries Commodity Market Overview - The proportion of long positions in commodities increased slightly this week. Precious metals and non - ferrous sectors were strong in cross - section, agricultural products were weak. Gold's time - series momentum rose slightly, silver's position increased more marginally. In the non - ferrous sector, short - cycle momentum recovered, and the term structure differentiation narrowed. In the black sector, time - series momentum showed a marginal decline. In the energy and chemical sector, short - cycle momentum factors recovered. In the agricultural products sector, the cross - section differentiation of oilseeds and meals narrowed [3] Performance of Different Factors - **Methanol**: Last week, the inventory factor weakened by 0.02%, the synthetic factor declined by 0.02%. The import methanol arrival volume and domestic road transport prices sent long signals on the supply side; the raw material procurement volume of domestic methanol - to - olefins enterprises decreased on the demand side; the methanol port continued to destock on the inventory side; the domestic methanol spot price fell while the port price was strong on the spread side [5] - **Float Glass**: Last week, the supply factor increased by 1.51%, the demand factor strengthened by 1.62%, the inventory factor weakened by 0.13%, the spread factor increased by 0.29%, the profit factor strengthened by 0.21%, and the synthetic factor increased by 1.38%. The supply side is neutral, the demand side is slightly long, the inventory side turns neutral, and the profit side remains short [8] - **Iron Ore**: Last week, the inventory factor declined by 0.59%, and the comprehensive factor weakened by 0.19%. The supply side turns to short feedback but the signal remains neutral, the demand side's long feedback weakens and turns to neutral, the inventory side's signal turns from short to neutral, and the spread side's short feedback weakens slightly and the signal remains neutral [10] - **Lead**: Last week, the supply factor increased by 0.6%, the demand factor strengthened by 0.56%, the spread factor increased by 0.51%, and the synthetic factor strengthened by 0.42%. The supply side signal turns from short to neutral, the inventory side signal turns from neutral to long, and the spread side signal turns from short to long [10] Data Tables - **Commodity Factors Performance Table**: It shows the last week's and current month's returns of supply, demand, inventory, spread, and the cumulative returns of major categories [4] - **Factor Index Table for Different Sectors**: It presents the time - series momentum, cross - section momentum, term structure, and position volume of black, non - ferrous, energy and chemical, agricultural products, stock index, and precious metals sectors [6]

那么，面对黄金如潮的涨势，投资者又是否值得去参与？笔者认为，这个问题要分两个方面来看。 如果是短线投资者，不妨先耐心观察，原因是最近金价过于迅猛，存在获利了结心态驱使下的回调需 求，目前价位如果过于激进追涨，则有可能在金价的高位震荡中被套。因此短线炒家有必要等待金价平 稳后再寻找相对低价入手的机会。如果是长线投资者，考虑到美元一旦进入弱周期，经验显示这一阶段 将持续较长时间，国际局势较难彻底缓和，因此可以考虑在金价小幅调整时出手，并长线持有黄金。 有必要多说一句的是，由此及彼，在贵金属价格持续看涨的背景下，投资者可以对资源类股票多加关 注，特别是有色金属类。原因在于，黄金事实上仅拥有金融属性，而铜、锌、钨、镍、钛等更因在现代 工业体系中具有重要作用，而凸显出应有的价值。 笔者认为，首先要明确的是，黄金今年以来的强势上涨并非无厘头式的炒作，而是基于其作为天下第 一"避险品种"的金融属性。那么今年世界是怎样的局势？俄乌战争硝烟未熄，加沙冲突烽火又起，时近 年底泰柬边境又起争端，在这样的背景下，黄金自然不会被视安全为第一要务的国际玩家忽视。与此同 时，白银也涨势不断，使得整个贵金属板块的上涨行情由点到面展开。 不过 ...

在地缘政治波动、全球货币宽松和市场避险需求高企等因素的影响下，2025年大宗商品走势分化，行情呈现"冰火两重天"。贵金属单边走强，而能源价格则 持续低迷。以下是IG分析师分享的2026年大宗商品的展望报告。黄金：2025年创纪录上涨后，涨势能否延续？ 结构性需求 黄金带着历史性涨势进入2026年——但有趣的是，这一交易似乎仍未过度拥挤。即便在2024年和2025年连续突破纪录，黄金常被描述为"超买"，却几乎从未 被贴上"过度持有"的标签。而这一差异至关重要。机构持仓仍有扩张空间，意味着此轮涨势并非由过度投机驱动，而是依托尚未达峰的结构性需求。 2024-2025年黄金涨势的很大一部分源于政策——更准确地说，是政策不确定性。美国在进入2026年之际，政府支出高企、局部通胀持续，实际收益率不断 走低。再叠加美元走弱，过去两年支撑黄金上涨的核心逻辑仍完好无损。 2025年的市场分化清晰印证了黄金对宏观经济的敏感性。6月至12月，随着实际收益率走低，黄金飙升至历史新高。这种反向关系仍是2026年黄金走势的最 大驱动因素之一。 图1：黄金vs实际收益率 各国央行仍是黄金结构性行情背后最强大的推动力之一。多个经济体的黄金 ...

原标题：彻底沸腾！涨疯了！创历史新高，50次！ 国内市场同样火热。上期所沪金期货盘中最高触及1018元/克，再度站上"千元关口"；金饰方面，今日 有多家品牌足金饰品报价首次站上每克1400元上方。其中，周大福、周生生报1403元/克，老庙黄金报 1402元/克。 与此同时，沪银期货主力合约突破16500元/千克，创历史新高；广期所铂、钯期货主力合约直线拉升， 双双触及涨停板，成为盘面最亮眼的"明星品种"。 贵金属市场，正在经历一场罕见的"集体狂欢"。 12月23日，黄金、白银等贵金属价格再度全线暴涨，多个品种刷新历史纪录，市场资金情绪被彻底点 燃。盘中，现货黄金最高触及4497美元/盎司，距离4500美元/盎司大关仅一步之遥；COMEX黄金期货 则率先突破4500美元/盎司大关。今年以来，金价已50次改写历史新高。 今年以来，贵金属已成为全球资本市场中最具爆发力的资产之一。截至目前，黄金年内累计涨幅约 65%，白银涨幅更是高达120%，显著跑赢黄金；铂、钯近期加速补涨，本月累计涨幅分别达到42%、 46%。 在期货市场持续狂飙的带动下，A股贵金属板块也掀起期股联动行情。23日，贵金属概念股再度走强， 山东黄金 ...

Group 1 - The Shanghai Composite Index faced resistance near the key level of 3920 points, influenced by a surge in precious metals and lithium carbonate futures, with the index closing up 0.07% at 3919.98 points [1] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 189.98 billion yuan, showing a slight increase of 37.9 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - The main contract for lithium carbonate futures broke through the 120,000 yuan mark at the close on December 23 [1] Group 2 - The 80th edition of the "Digging Gold" competition, organized by the Daily Economic News App, started on December 15, with participants seizing market opportunities [1] - The competition allows participants to simulate stock trading with a virtual capital of 500,000 yuan, and cash rewards are given for positive returns at the end of each period [3] - The competition offers various cash rewards, including 688 yuan for the first place and additional rewards for subsequent ranks, as well as monthly leaderboard prizes [3] Group 3 - Participants in the competition can join a discussion group to exchange market insights and investment strategies, with a focus on the key resistance level of 3920 points for the Shanghai Composite Index [4] - Some participants are optimistic about price-increasing themes, particularly in lithium and precious metals sectors [5] - The competition provides additional benefits, such as free access to the "Fire Line Quick Review" for six trading days upon registration, which includes market insights and company analyses [5]

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market is experiencing a rare "collective frenzy," with significant price surges across various metals, particularly gold and silver, driven by macroeconomic factors and geopolitical tensions [1][2]. Price Surge in Precious Metals - On December 23, gold and silver prices surged, with spot gold reaching a high of $4,497 per ounce and COMEX gold futures breaking the $4,500 per ounce mark. This marks the 50th time this year that gold prices have set a new record [2][4]. - In the domestic market, Shanghai gold futures hit a peak of 1,018 yuan per gram, while several gold jewelry brands quoted prices above 1,400 yuan per gram [2]. - Silver futures also saw significant gains, with the main contract surpassing 16,500 yuan per kilogram, reaching a historical high [2]. Performance of Precious Metals - Year-to-date, gold has increased by approximately 65%, while silver has surged by 120%, significantly outperforming gold. Platinum and palladium have also seen substantial gains, with monthly increases of 42% and 46%, respectively [2][6]. - The A-share precious metals sector has mirrored the bullish trend, with stocks like Shandong Gold rising nearly 7% [2]. Macroeconomic Influences - The rise in gold prices is attributed to macroeconomic conditions, including a dovish stance from the Federal Reserve and weaker U.S. non-farm payroll and CPI data, which support further rate cuts [4][5]. - Global central banks are increasing their gold reserves, with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) reporting that central bank gold reserves are expected to rise to 36,200 tons by the end of 2024, increasing their share of official foreign exchange reserves from 15% to nearly 20% [6]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Silver, platinum, and palladium are experiencing sharper price increases due to supply-demand imbalances and significant capital inflows. On December 23, spot silver reached $69.98 per ounce, while platinum and palladium futures hit their respective limits [8][9]. - The demand for silver is particularly strong, with a notable increase in COMEX silver delivery notices, indicating a tight supply situation [9]. Future Outlook - Institutions generally believe that precious metals will maintain strong support in the medium to long term, although short-term volatility risks are increasing. The Shanghai Gold Exchange has issued warnings about market instability and advised members to enhance risk awareness [11]. - Analysts suggest that while the current bullish trend is supported by macroeconomic factors, caution is advised against chasing prices in a rapidly rising market. It is recommended to wait for pullbacks before making new investments [11].

12月23日，步入2026年，全球金融市场的避险情绪与资产配置逻辑正在发生深刻变革。Mhmarkets迈汇 观察到，关税政策的不确定性，叠加交易所交易基金（ETF）与全球央行的持续扫货，已在2025年成功 将金价推升至每盎司4000美元的历史高位。这种强劲的动能并未展现出衰竭迹象，Mhmarkets迈汇认 为，随着保险行业巨头以及加密货币社区等新兴增量资金的入场，黄金有望在2026年底前进一步突破 5055美元关口。 尽管价格的上涨路径鲜有直线式攀升，但支撑金价重心抬高的核心逻辑依然稳固。Mhmarkets迈汇表 示，美元汇率走软、美国利率下行周期以及地缘政治的复杂性，共同构成了黄金的利好环境。在此背景 下，黄金不仅发挥了对冲货币贬值的功能，更成为传统无息资产（如美债和货币市场基金）的有力竞争 者。Mhmarkets迈汇认为，官方储备多元化和投资者策略性增持黄金的长期趋势远未结束，这将为金价 触及5000美元提供坚实支撑。 12月23日，步入2026年，全球金融市场的避险情绪与资产配置逻辑正在发生深刻变革。Mhmarkets迈汇 观察到，关税政策的不确定性，叠加交易所交易基金（ETF）与全球央行的持续扫货，已 ...