行业 国债日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 24 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | | 表1：国债期货12月23日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 （%） | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | TL2603 | 111.840 | 111.930 | 112.830 | 112.820 | 0.990 | 0.89 | 140734 | 1 ...

新华社北京12月23日电 日前举行的中央经济工作会议明确提出"着力稳定房地产市场"，强调"因城施策 控增量、去库存、优供给"。一系列部署释放"稳"的信号，为房地产市场平稳健康发展指明方向。 值得关注的是，会议明确提出"鼓励收购存量商品房重点用于保障性住房等"，将进一步打通市场存量与 民生保障之间的通道。这既有助于市场缓解资金压力、加速去库存，又能拓宽保障性住房供给来源，缓 解部分群体住房困难。市场与保障更有效衔接，将有助于稳定房地产市场，助力实现"住有所居"。 房地产发展的最终落脚点是民生，要以高质量供给满足居民不断升级的住房需求。适老化、适儿化等新 需求涌现，舒适度、智能化成为许多人购房的新期待。会议要求"有序推动'好房子'建设"，正是"优供 给"的要义所在。未来的房子，既要建得好，也要改得巧。把新房子建成"好房子"，把老房子逐步改造 成"好房子"，打造安全、舒适、绿色、智慧的宜居家园。 保持房地产市场稳定关系经济运行、关乎民生福祉。落实好已出台政策举措，推进新旧模式平稳有序转 换，必将进一步形成房地产市场持续稳定发展的内生动力，为经济社会高质量发展提供坚实支撑。（新 华社记者王优玲 杨柳） 当前，我国房地 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Chinese economy is undergoing a structural transformation from "urban investment - real estate" to "industry - consumption" drive, with changes in core economic contradictions, transmission mechanisms, and cycle laws, and some analysis paradigms need optimization. The importance of fiscal policy is increasing, and more attention is paid to industry analysis on the supply side, while the demand side is shifting from investment - driven to consumption - driven. The old economy, though no longer the main economic engine, can still provide growth elasticity if it stabilizes marginally [29]. - Some investors' concerns about banks' long - term bond - holding capacity may be excessive. In the short term, the ultra - long - term bond market may continue to fluctuate, but in the long run, upward adjustment may face resistance [29]. - Near the end of the year, wealth management may face a certain pressure to return to the balance sheet, but the demand for credit bonds may remain relatively stable. Credit bond yields may fluctuate with interest - rate bonds, and there are trading opportunities in high - quality central - state - owned enterprise real estate bonds [30]. - In 2026, the stock market's upward momentum may shift from single - valuation - driven to "profit + valuation" double - driven. The overall performance of listed companies is expected to improve, and the market may attract more new funds [35]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data - In Q3 2025, GDP grew by 4.8% year - on - year, down from 5.2% in the previous quarter but up from 4.6% in the same period last year. In November 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, slightly up from 49.0% in the previous month but down from 50.3% in the same period last year. The non - manufacturing PMI for business activities was 49.5%, down from 50.1% in the previous month and 50.0% in the same period last year [1]. - In November 2025, social financing increased by 24885 billion yuan, up from 8161 billion yuan last year. M0 increased by 10.6% year - on - year, the same as the previous month but down from 12.7% in the same period last year; M1 increased by 4.9%, down from 6.2% in the previous month but up from - 0.7% in the same period last year; M2 increased by 8.0%, down from 8.2% in the previous month but up from 7.1% in the same period last year [1]. - In November 2025, new RMB loans from financial institutions reached 3900 billion yuan, up from 2200 billion yuan in the previous month but down from 5800 billion yuan in the same period last year. CPI increased by 0.7% year - on - year, up from 0.2% in the previous month and the same period last year. PPI decreased by 2.2% year - on - year, down from - 2.1% in the previous month but up from - 2.5% in the same period last year [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment 3.2.1 Comprehensive - The Shanghai Gold Exchange reminded members and investors to strengthen risk prevention due to unstable market factors and volatile precious - metal prices. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted trading fees, daily price limits, and margin requirements for platinum, palladium, and lithium carbonate futures contracts, and restricted the daily opening volume of polysilicon futures contracts to strengthen market risk management [2][3]. 3.2.2 Metals - On December 24, international gold prices hit a record high, breaking through $4500 per ounce, driven by the escalating situation in Venezuela and expectations of further interest - rate cuts in the US next year. Spot platinum exceeded $2300 per ounce, and spot silver reached a historical high of $71.58 per ounce [4][5]. - Copper prices hit a record high, breaking through $12000 per ton, with a cumulative increase of about 37% this year, due to mine shutdowns and trade disruptions caused by Trump's tariff policies. Domestic gold - jewelry prices also rose, with some brands' pure - gold jewelry prices exceeding 1400 yuan per gram [5]. - The tin industry association called for rationality as tin prices deviated from fundamentals. The lithium industry's Q3 performance improved, with rising lithium carbonate futures prices in November. Market inventory decreased, and demand from new - energy vehicles and energy storage was strong [6]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - In November, domestic steel prices fluctuated narrowly, with a significant decline in crude steel production and high social inventory, showing a pattern of weak supply and demand. In December, prices continued to fluctuate narrowly due to multiple factors [9]. - China's first million - ton near - zero - carbon steel production line in Zhanjiang was fully connected, using hydrogen metallurgy and electric smelting technology, reducing carbon emissions by 50% - 80% compared with traditional processes [9]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - On December 23, US oil prices rose due to concerns about supply disruptions caused by US actions against Venezuelan oil tankers. As of December 16, crude - oil speculators increased their net short positions in WTI [10][11]. - Serbia extended its natural gas supply agreement with Russia until March 31, 2026, ensuring winter energy supply. Russia attacked Ukrainian oil and gas exploration facilities [11]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - The US Department of Agriculture reported that the pig inventory in the fourth quarter increased by 0.6% year - on - year [12]. 3.3 Financial News 3.3.1 Open Market - On December 23, the central bank conducted 593 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 760 billion yuan as 1353 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured. The Ministry of Finance and the central bank will conduct 2100 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - deposit tenders on December 26 [13][14]. 3.3.2 Key News - President Xi Jinping emphasized that central enterprises should focus on their core businesses, enhance core competitiveness, and promote innovation and reform. Premier Li Qiang called on central enterprises to play important roles in infrastructure construction, supply - chain stability, and technological self - reliance [15]. - The National Housing and Urban - Rural Development Work Conference proposed that local governments adjust real - estate policies, and promote the construction of a new real - estate development model, including project - company system, lead - bank system, and spot - housing sales system [16]. - The US FCC included foreign - made drones and components in the "unreliable suppliers list," and China firmly opposed this. The RMB exchange rate strengthened recently, driven by a weakening US dollar and year - end settlement demand [17]. - In 2025, local - government debt issuance exceeded 10 trillion yuan, and local governments plan to issue more bonds in Q1 2026, with an expected scale of over 1 trillion yuan, to support economic growth [18]. - The "AI bond - issuance wave" pushed US corporate bond issuance close to the historical record, with AI - related borrowing accounting for about 30% of US investment - grade bond net issuance [18]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - The Chinese bond market strengthened, with 30 - year treasury - bond futures rising nearly 1%. Interest - rate bond yields generally declined, and the inter - bank market funds were abundant. Some corporate bonds, such as those of Vanke, fluctuated, and convertible - bond indexes declined [24][25]. - Most money - market interest rates declined, and the yields of European bonds decreased, while US bond yields showed mixed trends [26][27]. 3.3.4 Foreign - Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose 95 points to 7.0287, and the RMB central parity rate rose 49 points to 7.0523. The US dollar index fell 0.37%, and most non - US currencies rose [28]. 3.4 Stock Market - The A - share market fluctuated slightly, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.07%, the Shenzhen Component Index rising 0.27%, and the ChiNext Index rising 0.41%. Lithium - battery and lithography - machine sectors strengthened, while tourism stocks declined. Three new stocks had significant gains [33]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 0.11%, the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 0.69%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell 0.29%. Gold and wind - power stocks led the rise, while technology stocks were mostly weak. Some new stocks had large price fluctuations [33]. - The new - issue scale of equity funds exceeded 400 billion shares this year, setting a new record. Many public - fund institutions held 2026 strategy meetings to discuss investment opportunities in sectors such as AI, consumption, and innovative drugs [33][34].

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market opened slightly higher on December 24, with the Hang Seng Index rising 0.02% to 25,780.09 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index up 0.07% to 5,492.83 points, the National Enterprises Index increasing by 0.09% to 8,922.07 points, and the Red Chip Index gaining 0.19% to 4,075.35 points [1] Company News - Pacific Basin Shipping (02343.HK) plans to acquire four newly built small handy bulk carriers for USD 119 million [2] - Xinyi Energy (03868.HK) intends to acquire 100% equity of Jinzhai Xinyi Wind Power for HKD 62 million [3] - Tianjin Port Development (03382.HK) proposes to sell 60% equity of China Railway Storage and Transportation for HKD 22.52 million, primarily engaged in coal sales [4] - Shandong Xinhua Pharmaceutical (00719.HK) has received a drug registration certificate for its Oseltamivir phosphate dry suspension [5] - Yiyuan Yuan (08223.HK) has entered into a strategic cooperation framework agreement with Pengfeng Technology to explore digital transformation opportunities in the traditional Chinese medicine industry [5] - Yihua Tong (02402.HK) completed a placement of 8.88 million shares, raising HKD 198 million, primarily for repaying bank loans [7] - Runge Interactive (02422.HK) plans to place up to 160 million shares at a discount of approximately 19.44%, raising about HKD 68.6 million [8] - Tencent Holdings (00700.HK) repurchased 1.051 million shares for HKD 636 million at prices between HKD 602.5 and HKD 613.5 [9] - Kuaishou-W (01024.HK) repurchased 2.7176 million shares for HKD 174 million at prices between HKD 63.7 and HKD 64.65 [10] - Xiaomi Group-W (01810.HK) repurchased 3.75 million shares for HKD 147 million at prices between HKD 39.1 and HKD 39.28 [11] - COSCO Shipping Holdings (01919.HK) repurchased approximately HKD 65.48 million worth of shares, totaling 4.7215 million shares at prices between HKD 13.75 and HKD 13.93 [12] - Huaxin Cement (06655.HK) shareholder Huaxin Group plans to increase its holdings in the company's A-shares by HKD 200 million to HKD 400 million [13] Institutional Insights - Dongwu Securities suggests that while there may be short-term opportunities in the Hong Kong market, it is advisable to maintain a cautious stance. The current position is seen as attractive for medium to long-term allocation, with potential for a "Christmas rally" in US tech stocks that could resonate with Hong Kong tech stocks, although there are concerns about stock unlocks affecting the market [14] - Founder Securities highlights strong demand for energy storage, benefiting both power batteries and energy storage batteries, with expected growth rates of over 15% and 40% respectively by 2026. The lithium market is also expected to see a gradual recovery in supply-demand dynamics, with prices likely to rise [14] - CICC forecasts that global tungsten production will increase from 82,800 tons in 2025 to 89,900 tons by 2028, while demand will rise from 102,100 tons to 110,000 tons, indicating a persistent supply-demand gap. The demand for tungsten-based new materials is expected to grow due to advancements in manufacturing and new applications [15]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the steady growth and positive trajectory of Shandong's economy, with key indicators showing resilience and improvement [1][2] - In the first eleven months, the province's industrial added value increased by 7.7%, retail sales of consumer goods grew by 5.2%, and foreign trade rose by 4.6% [1] - Shandong is set to become the third province in China and the first in the north to surpass a GDP of 10 trillion yuan, marking significant economic milestones [1] Group 2 - The "six musts" outlined in the Central Economic Work Conference are crucial for guiding Shandong's economic development, focusing on policy support, innovation, and leveraging local advantages [2][3] - The province aims to enhance its economic structure by addressing long-standing issues while also adapting to new challenges, indicating a dual focus on stability and progress [3][4] - The emphasis on "stability" includes maintaining employment, businesses, markets, and expectations, while "progress" involves implementing key industrial projects and fostering new growth drivers [4][5] Group 3 - The service sector is identified as a key engine for economic growth and job creation, with a reported 5.3% increase in revenue from the service industry in the first ten months of the year [5][6] - Despite the growth in the service sector, challenges remain regarding its overall size and quality, prompting calls for targeted strategies to enhance its development [6] - The focus on specific industries, such as wholesale and retail, finance, and transportation, highlights the need for tailored policies to boost service sector performance [6]

Market Overview - On December 23, 2025, the A-share market saw all three major indices close higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index at 3919.98 points, up 0.07%, the Shenzhen Component Index at 13368.99 points, up 0.27%, and the ChiNext Index at 3205.01 points, up 0.41%. However, the overall market had more decliners than gainers, with over 3800 stocks declining. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.90 trillion yuan, an increase of 37.9 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1] - In the Hong Kong market, all three major indices turned negative, with the Hang Seng Index down 0.11% or 27.63 points, closing at 25774.14 points, and a total trading volume of 157.13 billion HKD. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell 0.29% to 8913.83 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index decreased by 0.69% to 5488.89 points [1] - In the U.S. market, the three major indices had mixed results, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.61% to 47716.42 points, the S&P 500 up 0.54% to 6849.09 points, and the Nasdaq Composite up 0.65% to 23365.69 points [1] New Stock Listing - The new stock "Jianxin Superconductor" listed on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board with a stock code of 688805, priced at 18.58 yuan per share and a price-to-earnings ratio of 61.97 times. The company is a leading player in the core components of medical magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) equipment, focusing on the R&D, production, and sales of superconducting magnets, permanent magnets, and gradient coils. It has established a comprehensive product matrix in the superconducting field, becoming the world's top independent supplier of superconducting magnets in the MRI industry [2] Important News - The Guangxi Futures Exchange announced adjustments to the trading fee standards, price fluctuation limits, and margin standards for platinum, palladium, and lithium carbonate futures contracts, effective from December 25, 2025. The trading fee for platinum and palladium futures will be adjusted to 0.025% of the transaction amount, while the fee for lithium carbonate futures will be set at 0.032%. The price fluctuation limit for platinum and palladium futures will be adjusted to 10%, with a margin requirement of 12% [3] - The sixth batch of national high-value medical consumables procurement has officially started, focusing on drug-coated balloons and urological intervention consumables, with bids opening on January 13, 2026. This round of procurement introduces two new features: the concept of anchor pricing and a multi-revival mechanism. The anchor pricing aims to balance price reduction and prevent malicious underpricing, helping to avoid excessive competition and collusion among companies [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the proactive fiscal measures taken by local governments to issue bonds exceeding 1 trillion yuan in the first quarter of next year, aimed at stabilizing the economy and addressing liquidity pressures [2][3] - The issuance of bonds is primarily for refinancing purposes, allowing local governments to "borrow new to repay old," which is expected to enhance the overall economic chain by alleviating debts owed to enterprises [2] - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has outlined four key areas for stabilizing the real estate market, including controlling supply and improving market conditions, which reflects a shift in focus from quantity to quality in real estate development [4][5] Group 2 - A survey indicates that 8.4% of companies have implemented a "mandatory off-work" policy, reflecting a growing trend against overwork in the workplace, with 78% of employees considering changing jobs due to excessive competition [6][7] - ByteDance plans to increase its capital expenditure to 160 billion yuan (approximately 23 billion USD) in 2026, focusing on AI infrastructure, which highlights the competitive stance of Chinese tech companies in the AI sector [12][13] - Global technology companies have issued a record high of 428.3 billion USD in bonds this year, driven by significant investments in AI, indicating a trend of leveraging debt to fund technological advancements [14][15]

Group 1 - The incident involving the infant "Xiao Luoxi" has drawn significant public attention, leading to a high-level response from the Zhejiang provincial government, which has dispatched a working group to oversee subsequent handling of the situation [2][3][5] - An investigation team was established in Ningbo on November 17, and preliminary findings were released on December 14, resulting in disciplinary actions against relevant personnel [5] - A judicial process has been initiated regarding the medical malpractice claims, with the Ningbo Municipal Court accepting the case, highlighting the complexity and professionalism required in medical disputes [5] Group 2 - The Chinese government has announced new regulations to enhance food safety in live-streaming e-commerce, emphasizing the responsibilities of various stakeholders in ensuring food safety [8] - The UK government has introduced a ban on boiling live lobsters, aligning with animal welfare initiatives, and will provide guidelines for alternative methods of humane slaughter [9] - The U.S. Department of Homeland Security has implemented a new weighted selection process for H-1B visa applications, prioritizing high-salary applicants to focus on high-skilled labor [20] Group 3 - JD.com reported that its warehouse in France has resumed normal operations following a theft incident involving over 50,000 electronic devices valued at approximately €37 million [10] - The company is expanding its global logistics network, having established over 130 overseas warehouses in 23 countries [10] - The Oriental Yuhong subsidiary has reported a telecom fraud incident involving approximately $1.72 million, with investigations underway [12][13] Group 4 - The UK has raised the inheritance tax exemption threshold to £2.5 million, reflecting changes in fiscal policy [21] - Frontera Therapeutics has submitted a listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, indicating ongoing interest in capital markets [22] - The AI sector is witnessing significant investments, with companies like ByteDance planning to allocate substantial funds for AI development and semiconductor procurement [9][10]

当地时间12月23日，特朗普表示不同意其观点者无法出任美联储主席，希望新任主席在市场向好时降息。现任主席鲍威尔任期明 年5月结束，特朗普称前美联储理事沃什为头号人选，哈西特也表现出色。哈西特此前称美国三季度GDP超预期增长4.3%，主张 美联储加快降息节奏。美联储年内已三连降累计75基点至3.5%-3.75%，并暗示将放缓步伐。美国财长贝森特称，待通胀回落至 2% 后，可重新审视美联储 2% 的通胀目标，建议将其调整为区间形式，例如 1.5%-2.5% 或 1%-3%。 当地时间12月23日，俄军对乌克兰发动大规模突袭，动用30多枚导弹和超650架无人机，重点打击能源设施等目标，俄国防部 称"所有既定目标被击中"。此次袭击波及乌13个州，引发全境空袭警报，多地实施紧急停电，核电站被迫降负荷，已造成人员伤 亡。北约成员国波兰紧急出动战机，防范空域安全风险。 日本福井县正在报废的"普贤"核反应堆拆解作业时，泄漏20毫升含高浓度氚的放射性水。该反应堆曾多次发生泄漏事故，此次泄 漏未扩散至管理区域外，周边辐射监测正常。作业人员无内部辐射暴露，但外部辐射情况仍在调查，运营方已召开记者会说明详 情。 美股方面，三大指数集 ...

金饰克价又创新高了！首破1400元！还会接着涨？ 近期，国际金价持续上涨带动国内金价创新高。12月23日，有品牌足金饰品报价首次突破每克1400元。 同日，国内外主要黄金期货与现货价格均刷新历史纪录。今年以来，黄金价格已累计上涨超60%。分析 认为，美联储降息预期、供应紧张及投资需求旺盛等因素共同推高了贵金属价格。机构展望报告指出， 黄金市场在2026年可能延续涨势，白银需求也有望继续增长。 英媒有点急：挑战来了，中国又一领域跻身高端市场 英媒报道指出，中国正从高端食品进口国转变为全球重要的生产与出口国，在鱼子酱、鹅肝、夏威夷 果、樱桃等奢侈食材领域实现显著突破。这一转型得益于地方政策扶持、生产成本优势及国内需求增 长。目前中国已占据全球鱼子酱产量与出口量的大半壁江山，并成为全球第二大夏威夷果生产国。产业 繁荣主要受国内消费推动，同时也给国际贸易伙伴带来新的竞争挑战。 金融市场瞬息万变，投资与经济政策深刻影响全球。我们为您带来昨夜今晨的财经新闻，涵盖股市动 态、经济数据、企业财务和政策更新，帮助您全面把握金融世界。 美股收盘：日线四连涨标普收新高 英伟达升3%领涨七巨头 美股周二延续涨势，三大指数实现日线四连 ...