AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 周五，因持续的通胀压力与不断上升的财政风险继续打击市场情绪，日本30年期国债收益率攀升至历史 新高。其他期限的收益率也同步上扬，日本国债已连续数月遭遇抛售。 日本30年期国债收益率一度升至当日高点3.21%，略微超过7月创下的3.2%历史纪录。20年期日本国债 收益率升至2.66%，续刷1999年以来新高；10年期国债收益率上升1个基点至1.615%，创2008年10月以 来最高水平。 债市出现这一走势出现之际，日本7月核心消费者物价指数高于预期，且远超日本央行2%的目标。与此 同时，因执政联盟在7月参议院选举中失利，市场预期政府将出台新的财政刺激措施，也引发了债券发 行增加的担忧。 日本总务省周五公布的数据显示，7月剔除生鲜食品的核心消费者物价指数（CPI）同比上涨3.1%，低 于6月的3.3%，也略高于经济学家预测的3%。分析师原本预计能源价格会因去年高基数效应而拉低整体 水平。 新家义贵则表示："如果单看通胀数据，日本央行随时可以加息，但从逻辑上说，他们应等待明年工资 增长的动能更清晰再行动。因此我认为12月或明年1月更可能，但也确实存在提前到1 ...

Group 1 - The Shanghai Stock Exchange announced the listing of China Post Group Co., Ltd.'s 2025 public issuance of technology innovation corporate bonds (Phase II) for professional investors [1][2] - The bonds will be listed on August 25, 2025, under the name "25邮政K2" and the code "243590" [2] - Various trading methods will be employed for these bonds, including matched transactions, click transactions, inquiry transactions, competitive bidding, and negotiated transactions [2] Group 2 - According to China Clearing rules, these bonds can participate in pledged repurchase transactions [2]

Market Overview - On August 21, the A-share market experienced significant fluctuations, with major indices showing mixed results. The Shanghai Composite Index slightly increased by 0.13% to close at 3771.10 points, marking a nearly ten-year high, while the ChiNext Index fell by 0.47% to 2595.47 points [2][3] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 2.42 trillion yuan, a slight increase compared to the previous trading day [2] ETF Fund Flows - On August 21, the total net inflow into stock ETFs (including cross-border ETFs) was approximately 69.85 billion yuan. The industry-themed ETFs and Hong Kong market ETFs saw the highest net inflows, amounting to 48.73 billion yuan and 48.51 billion yuan, respectively [2][3] - Conversely, broad-based ETFs experienced a net outflow of 29.26 billion yuan. The net inflow for industry-themed ETFs increased by 38.86 billion yuan [2] Specific ETF Performance - Several ETFs tracking the brokerage sector attracted significant capital, with the Guotai Securities ETF seeing a net inflow exceeding 10 billion yuan, and the E Fund Hong Kong Securities ETF close to 10 billion yuan [4] - The top ten ETFs by net inflow on August 21 included the Convertible Bond ETF with a net inflow of 16.83 billion yuan, and the Securities ETF with a net inflow of 10.67 billion yuan [5] Sector Insights - The brokerage sector is viewed as a "market thermometer," with expectations for continued performance despite a lag in index growth compared to projected net profit growth. The overall sentiment suggests a "slow bull" market for brokerages [6] - The chemical sector is experiencing a downturn in demand, leading to reduced profit margins and a decline in capital expenditure. However, the narrative of "anti-involution" may lead to a stabilization in prices [7] Outflows and Investor Behavior - Recent profit-taking was observed in certain sectors, particularly in the Sci-Tech 50 ETF and Chip ETF, as investors opted to secure gains following recent price increases [8]

Core Insights - The bond market is currently in a low-yield, high-volatility state, contrasting with the previous year's high-yield, high-volatility environment. This shift suggests frequent "mispricing" opportunities, prompting investors to adopt a "low position + high win rate" strategy for defensive counterattacks and to capitalize on oversold rebound opportunities [1][10][21]. Group 1: Market Conditions - Since the beginning of 2025, the 10-year government bond yield has shown significant volatility, rising from approximately 1.60% at the start of the year to around 1.78% by August 20, with a peak close to 1.90%. The rolling standard deviation indicates that the yield's volatility has increased, with a median of about 0.03%, higher than the median of 0.028% from 2021 to 2024 [10][11]. - The performance of bond funds has declined in 2025, with the median annualized return for medium to long-term pure bond funds at 0.83%, significantly lower than the 3.98%, 2.36%, 3.47%, and 4.58% returns from 2021 to 2024. Short-term pure bond funds also reflect a similar trend, with a median return of 1.41% [11][12]. Group 2: Fund Evaluation - The Calmar ratio is deemed more reflective of true risk compared to the Sharpe ratio, although both should be used in conjunction. The Sharpe ratio is more suitable for short and pure bond funds with lower volatility and drawdown, while the Calmar ratio is better for long bond funds and secondary bond funds that exhibit higher volatility and deeper drawdowns [2][16]. - In 2025, investors are advised to prioritize the Calmar ratio alongside the Sharpe ratio to better select bond funds, as the low-yield, high-volatility environment increases the demand for fund managers' ability to control drawdowns [19][20]. Group 3: Investment Strategy Adjustments - The bond market is still in a headwind phase, with the trend for bullish positions delayed. Despite rising interest rates and a steepening curve reducing bullish sentiment, the high volatility presents frequent "mispricing" opportunities. Investors are encouraged to maintain a "high-grade, short-duration, high-liquidity" base to better control drawdowns while selectively participating in long and ultra-long bonds after significant declines [3][21][22]. - The strategy should focus on quick trades and timely profit-taking, as the current market conditions do not favor long-term bullish positions. Historical data indicates that after significant declines, the 10-year government bond typically experiences a short-term rebound [22][24].

出品 | 妙投APP 作者 | 丁萍 编辑 | 关雪菁 头图 | AI生图 股市沸腾，债市沉寂。 2025年以来，A股气势如虹，上证指数年内上涨12.8%，创业板指更是获得了22%的涨幅。与股市的高 歌猛进形成鲜明对比的是，债市遇冷，30年期国债ETF年内下跌逾2%，自6月以来跌幅进一步扩大至4% ——股债"跷跷板效应"再度显现。 那么，股市牛气冲天，债市就真的全无机会了吗？答案显然并不简单。 股市不是核心因素 股债"跷跷板效应"是市场资金风险偏好转换的直接体现。在股市上涨阶段，资金更愿意冒险，流向权益 市场，债市资金被动流出，价格承压；反之，当股市低迷，资金又回流债市寻求避险。 但这种影响通常只是阶段性的。真正决定债市趋势的核心因素，还是经济基本面。债券本质上是固定收 益工具，其未来现金流（票息+本金）的确定性，取决于宏观经济、通胀以及货币政策的变化。 而利率变化预期就是经济基本面的金融化表达，反映了宏观经济增长、通胀水平以及货币政策的变动。 也就是说，市场会根据这种利率预期，来决定债券的买卖行为。 从近期数据来看，经济边际走弱的迹象明显：7月新增贷款自2005年以来首次负增长，社融同比下滑， 消费和投资均 ...

Core Insights - Blockchain technology is increasingly being applied in offshore capital markets, with the International Capital Market Association (ICMA) predicting that blockchain financing will reshape global capital markets by 2030 [1] - The article discusses the regulatory frameworks and practical experiences related to digital bonds, highlighting the importance of legal text considerations and the evolving landscape of offshore blockchain capital markets [2][17] Legal Text Considerations and Practical Analysis - The drafting of legal texts for blockchain bonds is crucial due to uncertainties in technology, liquidity, and legal compliance, with major financial centers like Hong Kong and the EU establishing clearer regulatory frameworks [2] - Digital bonds' legal frameworks largely follow traditional bond rules but exhibit innovative differences in core legal document handling and disclosure logic [2] Offering Circular/Prospectus - The offering circular for digital bonds must meet local regulatory disclosure requirements while addressing unique risks associated with Distributed Ledger Technology (DLT) [3] - Important risk factors include cybersecurity, platform operation risks, and the non-enforceability of smart contracts [3] Transaction Documents - Digital bond terms must clearly outline the mechanisms for on-chain issuance, transfer, and registration, granting legal status to blockchain platforms [4] - Subscription agreements and custody contracts need to ensure secure delivery of tokens to investors' electronic wallets and detail data compatibility with local and overseas central depositories [5] Business Continuity Plan (BCP) - The BCP for digital native bonds should focus on technical resilience, operational continuity, legal compliance, and market protection [6] - Key elements include multi-node deployment, backup servers, and compliance with EU DLT pilot regulations [6][7] Execution Cycle Considerations - The execution cycle for digital bonds can be divided into seven key stages, each presenting new compliance, security, and market acceptance requirements [8] - Stages include pre-issuance considerations, marketing, registration, trading, investor rights protection, asset servicing, and third-party participation [8] Global Development Trends - Major economies are exploring blockchain technology in bonds, currencies, and financial infrastructure, with institutions like the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) and the European Central Bank (ECB) leading initiatives [17] - The DLT settlement framework aims to integrate central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) with blockchain technology, enhancing efficiency and reducing intermediary costs [18] Collaborative Innovation and Regulatory Standardization - Singapore's Monetary Authority (MAS) is advancing a tokenization strategy to solidify its position as a global fintech hub, focusing on multi-currency and multi-asset industry pilots [20] - The MAS aims to address interoperability challenges and establish regulatory standards to enhance market liquidity and issuance efficiency [20] Conclusion - The evolution of financial infrastructure through blockchain technology represents a significant shift towards a more efficient, transparent, and inclusive financial system, bridging traditional finance and Web 3.0 ecosystems [22][23]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - No explicit core viewpoints are presented in the given content 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Global Asset Market Performance - **10 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies**: On August 21, 2025, the 10 - year Treasury yields in the US, UK, France, etc. were 4.329, 4.729, 3.461 respectively. The latest changes, weekly changes, monthly changes, and annual changes varied across countries. For example, the US had a latest change of 0.037, a weekly change of 0.043, a monthly change of - 0.069, and an annual change of 0.485 [3] - **2 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies**: On August 21, 2025, the 2 - year Treasury yields in the US, UK, Germany, etc. were 3.750, 3.966, 1.969 respectively. The latest changes, weekly changes, monthly changes, and annual changes also differed. For instance, the US had a latest change of - 0.020, a weekly change of 0.030, a monthly change of 0.030, and an annual change of - 0.300 [3] - **Exchange Rates of the US Dollar against Major Emerging Economies' Currencies**: On August 21, 2025, the exchange rates against the Brazilian real, Russian ruble, South African rand, etc. were 5.476, - (not available), 17.718 respectively. The latest changes, weekly changes, monthly changes, and annual changes showed different trends. For example, against the Brazilian real, the latest change was - 0.12%, the weekly change was 1.08%, the monthly change was - 0.81%, and the annual change was 0.37% [3] - **Stock Indices of Major Economies**: On August 21, 2025, the Dow Jones, S&P 500, NASDAQ, etc. had values of 6370.170, 44785.500, 21100.310 respectively. The latest changes, weekly changes, monthly changes, and annual changes varied. For example, the Dow Jones had a latest change of - 0.40%, a weekly change of - 1.52%, a monthly change of 17.22%, and an annual change not fully shown [3] - **Credit Bond Indices**: The emerging economies' investment - grade and high - yield credit bond indices, US investment - grade and high - yield credit bond indices, and euro - zone investment - grade and high - yield credit bond indices had different latest changes, weekly changes, monthly changes, and annual changes. For example, the emerging economies' investment - grade credit bond index had a latest change of - 0.26%, a weekly change of - 0.27%, a monthly change of 1.00%, and an annual change of 3.91% [3][4] Stock Index Futures Trading Data - **Index Performance**: The A - share, CSI 300, SSE 50, ChiNext, and CSI 500 had closing prices of 3771.10, 4288.07, 2862.18, 2595.47, and 6704.17 respectively on the reporting date, with corresponding percentage changes in price [5] - **Valuation**: The PE (TTM) of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, S&P 500, and German DAX were 13.73, 11.71, 32.02, 27.00, and 20.07 respectively, with corresponding环比 changes [5] - **Risk Premium**: The risk premium of S&P 500 and German DAX were - 0.63 and 2.23 respectively, with corresponding环比 changes [5] - **Fund Flow**: The latest values and 5 - day average values of fund flow in A - shares, main board, small and medium - sized enterprise board, ChiNext, and CSI 300 were presented. For example, the latest value of A - share fund flow was - 1351.53, and the 5 - day average was - 312.50 [5] - **Trading Volume**: The latest trading volumes and环比 changes of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, SSE 50, small - cap board, and ChiNext were given. For example, the latest trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 24240.57, with a环比 change of 158.23 [5] - **Main Contract Premium or Discount**: The basis and percentage of basis for IF, IH, and IC were - 5.87 (- 0.14%), 3.22 (0.11%), and - 47.77 (- 0.71%) respectively [5] Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - The closing prices of T00, TF00, T01, and TF01 were 108.000, 105.500, 107.875, and 105.450 respectively, with corresponding percentage changes in price [6] - The R001, R007, and SHIBOR - 3M had values of 1.5143%, 1.5356%, and 1.5500% respectively, with daily changes in basis points [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the increasing attractiveness of the Chinese bond market for international investors, driven by a combination of factors including policy support and the growing importance of the renminbi in the global monetary system [1][4][5] - The average daily trading volume of the Bond Connect Northbound channel reached a record high of 45.9 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting a 3% year-on-year increase, indicating sustained growth in trading activity [1] - As of the end of June 2025, the custody balance of foreign institutions in the Chinese bond market was 4.3 trillion yuan, accounting for only 2.3% of the total custody balance, suggesting significant room for growth in foreign investment [2][4] Group 2 - The inclusion of Chinese bonds in major global bond indices has been a key turning point, with foreign holdings increasing from approximately 200 billion USD in March 2018 to a peak of 600 billion USD in 2022, although the current foreign allocation remains relatively low [2][3] - The trend of global investors diversifying away from USD assets has accelerated, with central banks and long-term funds increasingly looking for non-USD safe havens, positioning the Chinese bond market as an attractive option [3][4] - The Chinese bond market, valued at 25 trillion USD, is the second largest globally, and its growth over the past decade aligns closely with the expansion of the Chinese economy, indicating its significant market value for international investors [5]

回顾一下2025年的债券市场，整体是一个宽幅震荡的行情。从上半年开始，截至8月初，以10年期国债 为主的债券市场收益率高点出现在3月中旬，达到1.90%附近；低点则出现在三个窗口期：今年1月初、 4月中旬地缘政治风险爆发时，以及最近的7月初。这三个窗口期，10年期国债收益率低点基本都在 1.60%附近。因此，今年大的行情就是在1.6%到1.9%之间，即30个基点（BP）的宽幅震荡。当前10年期 国债收益率在1.72%，正处于今年震荡区间的中间位置。 接下来，我们梳理一下今年债券市场波动背后的交易逻辑。 第一，在中国经济转型过程中，当前实体需求相对较弱。在这样的背景下，对于债券市场的配置机构来 说，债券的投资比例一定会小幅增加。所以，债券与银行投放的贷款相比具备配置价值。在弱需求背景 下，今年债券市场依然是一个慢牛或震荡牛的走势。 从今年的维度来看，我们相对还是比较看好10年期国债的机会。10年期这一期限的资产，其好处在于： 波动比30年期资产偏低，但绝对收益又比偏短期限的资产偏高。当我们处于低利率环境下，应该追逐确 定性相对偏高、并且能容忍资产波动或回撤相对偏小的资产。在当前债券市场中符合这两个特征的期限 段 ...

8月21日，沪深两融数据显示，十年国债(511260)获融资买入额0.20亿元，居两市第1087位，当日融资偿 还额2.59亿元，净卖出23919.74万元。 最近三个交易日，19日-21日，十年国债(511260)分别获融资买入1.51亿元、0.20亿元、0.20亿元。 来源：金融界 融券方面，当日融券卖出0.00万股，净卖出0.00万股。 ...