Group 1 - European government bonds declined, following the downward trend of U.S. Treasuries, as traders reduced bets on U.S. interest rate cuts [1][6] - Short-term German bond yields increased more than long-term yields [2][7] - German bonds faced pressure ahead of the issuance of debt maturing in 2035 [3][8] Group 2 - Market updates indicate that German bond yields rose by 2 basis points to 2.87% [5][10] - German bond futures fell by 24 points to 127.93 [5][10] - The yield on Italy's 10-year bonds increased by 3 basis points to 3.48%, while the Italy-Germany bond spread remained stable at 62 basis points [5][10] - French 10-year bond yields rose by 3 basis points to 3.45% [5][10] - The yield on 10-year UK bonds decreased by 2 basis points to 4.50% [5][10]

美国以3.600%的高利率出售三个月期国债，以该高利率承接了96.06%的投标。 美国3个月期国债投标倍 数为2.81。 ...

2月的首个交易日，金融市场延续震荡走势。伦敦金现盘中跌破4500美元/盎司，日内跌幅一度超过9%；A股三大指数均跌超2%，全市场超百股 跌停。 风险偏好回落将对债市形成一定支撑，债市整体震荡。2月2日，Wind数据显示，主要国债品种收益率小幅上行，国债期货收盘多数下跌，其中 10年期国债活跃券"250016"收益率日内小幅上行，而在经历了1月的结构性分化后，超长债收益率回暖走强。在分析人士看来，人民银行今年将 继续降息降准，进一步带动债市短端利率下行。 | 自选债 | 债券综合屏 | | 城投债综合屏 二永债综合屏 | | 经纪商行情 债市成交统计 | | | CFETS行情 交易所行情 万得债券 | 实时利差 | 债券报价屏 | 利差分析 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 资产价格 | | | | | 利率债二级 | | 信用债二级 | NCD二级 | # # # | ● 前收 ● 估值 | H ... | | 名称 | | 现价 | 涨跌 | 时间 | | 1Y 2Y | 7Y | 3 ...

[Table_Title] 2 月债市，关注资金与风偏 [Table_Title2] 利率月报 [Table_Summary] ►1 月债市，高开低走 回顾 1 月债市，长端利率经历预期之外的高开低走行情，供 需变化、风偏调整、机构行为、税期扰动成为主要影响变量。10 年国债收益率起步于 1.85%，月初高点一度摸至 1.90%，随后便 进入渐进回落阶段，月末收于 1.81%。 从结构性视角来看，尽管利率债行情不弱，但资管类机构似 乎倾向于在年初奠定高静态收益的基础，票息资产更受欢迎，3-5 年的中长期信用债、二永债表现更为占优。 ►2 月债市，四大关注 一是供需结构。继 1 月发行不及预期后，1 月 20 日前后地方 政府密集修正 2 月的地方债发行计划。按照最新测算结果，预计 2月国债、地方债净发行规模分别为4200、6500亿元，合计1.07 万亿元，总量上与 1 月的 1.18 万亿元规模相近，或在一定程度上 缓和年初供不应求的错配状态。从发行节奏上看，2 月政府债供 给压力集中前置的问题，同样值得关注，2 月首周政府债单周发 行量将达到 9767 亿元，约占 2 月总发行量的 53%，过于密集的 供 ...

Core Viewpoint - The bond market participants expect the U.S. Treasury to avoid significant adjustments to its bond issuance plan in the upcoming refinancing announcement, despite recent aggressive actions by the Trump administration in other financial sectors, which have raised investor concerns about potential unexpected moves to lower yields [1] Group 1 - The market anticipates that the quarterly refinancing bond auction size will remain at $125 billion, a level maintained since May 2024, marking the longest period of stability since the mid-2010s, when the total was less than half of the current amount [1] - The U.S. Treasury may reaffirm its previous guidance to keep the issuance of coupon-bearing bonds stable for "at least the next few quarters" [1] - The debate among market participants centers on whether the Bessent team will wait until 2027 to make any moves or if there is a possibility of reducing the issuance of the longest-term bonds to lower their yields [1]

Market Overview - Financial markets continued to show volatility on the first trading day of February, with London gold prices dropping below $4500 per ounce, experiencing a daily decline of over 9% [1] - The A-share market saw all three major indices fall by more than 2%, with over a hundred stocks hitting the daily limit down [1] Bond Market Performance - As of February 2, major government bond yields showed mixed performance, with the 10-year government bond yield rising by 0.50 basis points to 1.8150% [3] - The 30-year government bond futures contract increased by 0.18% to 112.060, while the 10-year and 5-year contracts fell by 0.03% and 0.02%, respectively [3] - In January, the bond market experienced significant fluctuations, with the 10-year government bond yield peaking at 1.8985% on January 8, marking the highest level since September 2025 [3][4] Monetary Policy and Market Liquidity - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is expected to continue lowering interest rates and reserve requirements, which will further drive down short-term bond yields [1][10] - On February 2, the PBOC conducted a 750 billion yuan reverse repo operation at a fixed rate of 1.40%, with the same amount for both bidding and winning [5] - The market is anticipated to experience tightening liquidity as the Chinese New Year approaches, although the PBOC's willingness to maintain liquidity support is strong [9] Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the bond market will remain in a state of fluctuation, with the 10-year government bond yield expected to oscillate between 1.6% and 2.0% throughout 2026 [10] - The overall sentiment in the bond market is expected to be weak leading up to the holiday, with small fluctuations in yields anticipated [9] - The bond market is characterized by low interest rates, high volatility, and structural differentiation, influenced by both monetary and fiscal policies [7][8]

关注债市修复行情的持续性 核心观点 西南证券研究院 [Table_Author] 分析师：杨杰峰 执业证号：S1250523060001 电话：18190773632 邮箱：yangjf@swsc.com.cn 分析师：叶昱宏 执业证号：S1250525070010 电话：18223492691 邮箱：yeyuh@swsc.com.cn [Table_Report 2026 年 02 月 02 日 证券研究报告•固定收益定期报告 债券市场跟踪周报（1.26-1.30） 相关研究 请务必阅读正文后的重要声明部分 S 2026年 1月，债券市场整体呈现为触底后的修复行情。2026年 1月，债券市 场在经历月初"股强债弱"的逆风期后，走出了一轮由政策预期驱动、配置力 量托底的修复行情。月初，权益市场"春季躁动"预期强烈，风险偏好快速上 行，对债市形成显著压制，收益率曲线呈现陡峭化上行。随着监管层对股市过 快上涨的"降温"表态抑制风险偏好以及央行持续性传达流动性呵护态度，债 市修复行情逐渐开启。1 月 19 日，央行结构性降息 25BP 推动利率中枢进一 步下行，虽然一季度总量降息落空可能性有所提升，但债市仍表现出较 ...

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing consolidation, with fluctuations in the context of equity market adjustments, and the focus is on the central bank's operations and liquidity conditions ahead of the Spring Festival [1] Market Performance - The majority of government bond futures closed lower, with the 30-year main contract up 0.18% at 112.06, while the 10-year main contract fell 0.03% to 108.25 [2] - The 30-year government bond yield decreased by 0.8 basis points to 2.252%, while the 10-year government bond yield increased by 0.15 basis points to 1.8115% [2] - The China Convertible Bond Index fell by 2.39%, with 194 convertible bonds dropping over 2%, while a few saw gains exceeding 2% [2] Overseas Bond Market - In the Eurozone, 10-year bond yields decreased, with French yields down 0.9 basis points to 3.417% and German yields down 1.8 basis points to 2.838% [3] - In North America, 10-year U.S. Treasury yields rose by 0.62 basis points to 4.237%, while 2-year yields fell by 2.85 basis points to 3.522% [3] Primary Market - Agricultural Development Bank's financial bonds were issued with yields below market estimates, with 1-year, 3-year, and 10-year yields at 1.4719%, 1.5418%, and 1.9599% respectively [4] Liquidity Conditions - The central bank conducted a 750 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation at a rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 755 billion yuan for the day [5] - Short-term Shibor rates mostly declined, with the overnight rate rising by 3.7 basis points to 1.365% [5] Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI, non-manufacturing business activity index, and composite PMI output index were reported at 49.3%, 49.4%, and 49.8%, indicating a decline in economic activity [6] Institutional Views - Huatai Fixed Income suggests that the traditional strategy of "watching stocks or commodities to trade bonds" is failing due to commodity price volatility and increased demand for dividend insurance, leading to a "stock-bond co-temperature" [8] - Huachuang Securities notes that the January PMI's unexpected decline reflects a weak economic reality, with caution advised regarding upstream price increases affecting downstream demand [8] - Jianghai Securities indicates that while caution is warranted regarding low bond yields, the risk of rising rates is limited, with recent market performance showing strength amid easing concerns [8]

Group 1 - The report highlights two key questions for the bond market in February: identifying investment opportunities and whether to hold bonds over the holiday period [12][43] - The 10-year government bond yield is currently at 1.8%, and the 1-year deposit rate is at 1.6%, indicating a low level that requires strong positive stimuli for any significant breakthroughs [12][43] - The report suggests that the bond market may remain volatile until strong positive factors emerge, with a focus on the trading value of 30-year government bonds and TL [12][43] Group 2 - From a credit bond perspective, the report recommends reducing focus on 3-year subordinated capital bonds due to limited arbitrage space of around 30 basis points [12][44] - It suggests paying attention to 1-2 year low-grade credit bonds and 3-5 year high-grade credit bonds based on demand preferences [12][44] - The report notes that since the beginning of January, the performance of the certificate bonds has been weaker than expected, primarily due to low demand for bond funds [12][44] Group 3 - The report discusses the strategy of holding bonds over the holiday, indicating that the current yield on 10-year government bonds is low, limiting further downside potential [12][45] - It suggests that if the yield rises above 1.85%, it may be worth considering holding bonds over the holiday [12][45] - The report emphasizes the need to monitor economic data and market conditions post-holiday, as these could influence the likelihood of interest rate cuts [12][45] Group 4 - The report outlines four bond selection strategies: focusing on TL and slightly higher yield next-active bonds for high-frequency trading, considering ultra-long bonds for odds, and monitoring specific long-end and mid-term bonds [12][17] - It highlights the potential for the 30-year government bond's trading value and the relative value of certificate bonds as key areas of interest [12][17] - The report also notes that the current pricing of floating rate bonds appears expensive, suggesting a focus on 2-3 year floating rate certificate bonds [12][17] Group 5 - The report indicates that the current pricing of government bond futures is reasonable relative to cash bonds, with limited relative value for futures arbitrage [12][18] - It suggests that if there are concerns about low bond yields leading to adjustment risks, short-term hedging strategies in futures could be considered [12][18] - The report recommends continuing to select T contracts for participation in strong relative government bond markets, despite potential short-term price adjustments [12][18] Group 6 - The report provides a weekly review of the bond market, noting that the overall performance has been volatile, with long-end certificate bonds and ultra-long government bonds showing weaker performance [21] - It highlights that the strong willingness of banks to allocate funds and the slight decline in overnight funding rates have positively impacted the performance of government bonds and deposits [21] - The report includes specific yield changes for various government bonds, indicating fluctuations in the market [22][24]

Group 1: Fixed Income Market Overview - The 10Y government bond yield has shown a downward trend, decreasing by 2.10 basis points to 1.8090% compared to the previous week, influenced by discussions on new monetary policy tools and a weakening equity market [2][3] - The overall liquidity in the money market remains stable, with a slight increase in funding rates as the month-end approaches, but the central bank's supportive stance keeps the cross-month pressure manageable [4][11] Group 2: Money Market Analysis - The central bank's net liquidity injection this week was 530.5 billion, with a notable increase in the 7-day reverse repo balance to 17,615 billion, up by 5,805 billion from the previous week [11][12] - Funding rates have slightly increased, with DR007 rising by 9.91 basis points to 1.59% and R007 increasing by 10.41 basis points to 1.64% as of January 30, 2026 [25][26] Group 3: Primary Market Supply - The net supply of interest rate bonds decreased significantly this week to 3,805.14 billion, a drop of 3,544.45 billion from the previous week, with government bonds showing a net supply of -1,133.40 billion [32][34] - The net financing scale of negotiable certificates of deposit (NCD) turned positive this week, totaling 37.30 billion, an increase of 1,544.40 billion from the previous week [32][39] Group 4: Secondary Market Performance - The yield curve for government bonds is flattening, with the 10Y/1Y yield spread narrowing, indicating a shift in market sentiment [42][50] - The absolute level of government bond yields shows a downward trend, with the 10Y yield slightly decreasing, while the 30Y local government bond yield has seen a minor increase [47][49]