证券研究报告｜基金配置周报 2025 年 07 月 29 日 | | 世界人工智能大会亮点纷呈，如何布局？ | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 【20250721-20250727】 | | | ◼ | 市场回顾：上周权益市场主要指数大幅走高，科创 50 涨幅最 | | | | 大，上涨 4.63%；债券市场长短端利率均有所上行，其中十年 | 大同证券研究中心 | | | 期国债上行 6.72BP ，一年期国债上行 3.45BP,期限利差有所 分析师：杨素婷 | | | | 走阔，长短端 AAA 信用利差均大幅走阔；基金市场中偏股基金 执业证书编号： | | | | 指数和二级债基指数均周度收涨，中长期纯债基金指数和短期 S0770524020002 | | | | 纯债基金指数均大幅回调；申万 31 个行业涨多跌少，周期板 | 邮箱：yangst@dtsbc.com.cn | | | 块集体反弹。 | | | ◼ | 权益类产品配置策略： | 地址：山西太原长治路 111 号山 | | ➢ | 事件驱动策略：（1）十部门联合印发 《促进农产品消费实施 西世贸中心 | A 座 F12、F1 ...

文|天峰 来源|财富独角兽 近期，两市维持高位震荡格局。笔者发现，即便是在市场较高位置时，富国基金旗下经理张富盛的业绩表现却急转直下。数据显示，富国清洁能源产业混合 A基金，任职3年又60天，任期回报亏了37.91%。整体而言，在富国基金的这段时间里，张富盛管理的基金业绩与此前在上投摩根时形成鲜明反差，业绩下 滑严重，投资成果未能达到市场预期，饱受投资者质疑。 01 17.51亿元理成8.55亿元 据天天基金网显示，张富盛自2007年8月至2010年3月,在德勤华永会计师事务所担任高级税务咨询;自2010年3月至2011年2月,在中国国际金融有限公司担任分 析师;自2011年2月至2015年8月在北京高华证券有限责任公司担任投资研究部经理。 自2018年3月至2021年10月29日担任上投摩根转型动力灵活配置混合型证券投资基金基金经理。曾任上投摩根动力精选混合型证券投资基金基金经理。2015 年08月至2021年10月任上投摩根基金管理有限公司行业专家、基金经理助理、权益基金经理。 2021年11月加入富国基金管理有限公司。2022年2月16日起任富国价值增长混合型证券投资基金基金经理。2022年5月27日起 ...

【导读】昨日股票ETF资金净流出超44亿元 7月28日，股票ETF（含跨境ETF）整体资金净流出达44.17亿元，最新规模达3.81万亿元。 7月28日，易方达旗下香港证券ETF净流入8.7亿元，科创板50ETF净流入2.4亿元，人工智能ETF净流入1.6亿元，恒生红利低波ETF净流入1.1亿元，机器人 ETF净流入0.6亿元。 华夏基金旗下科创50ETF和恒生科技指数ETF单日净流入居前，分别净流入8.83亿元和3.43亿元，最新规模分别达916.7亿元和317.61亿元，对应跟踪指数 近一月日均成交额分别为33.12亿元和41.5亿元。 7月28日，三大指数集体收涨，电子元件、军工概念等轮番演绎。股票ETF（含跨境ETF）整体资金净流出超44亿元。其中，香港证券ETF、港股通互联网 ETF、港股通非银ETF等港股相关ETF产品成为"吸金"主力；中证1000ETF、上证50ETF、沪深300ETF、中证500ETF等宽基ETF成为"失血"大户。 港股相关ETF产品成为"吸金"主力 昨日股票ETF资金净流出超44亿元 7月28日，三大指数均上涨，截至收盘，沪指涨0.12%，深证成指涨0.44%；创业板指涨0. ...

Group 1 - Recent capital inflow into gold ETFs has exceeded 250 million yuan over two consecutive days, indicating strong investor interest [1] - Gold prices are currently fluctuating around 3,330 USD, with recent trade agreements between the US, Japan, and the EU temporarily suppressing gold [1] - Despite short-term pressures, the long-term narrative for gold remains intact, supported by structural and sticky long-term capital from central banks [1] Group 2 - Gold prices have been oscillating within the range of 3,200 to 3,400 USD for several months, with a gradual narrowing of the volatility range, indicating a digestion of previous overbought conditions [1] - The gold ETF tracks the spot gold (Au99.99 contract) launched by the Shanghai Gold Exchange, representing high-purity gold with a minimum content of 99.99% [1] - The ETF serves as a standardized tool for investors to directly participate in the gold market, focusing on physical delivery and investment hedging needs [1]

【 导读 】 昨日股票ETF资金净流出超44亿元 中国基金报记者 曹雯璟 7月28日，三大指数集体收涨，电子元件、军工概念等轮番演绎。股票ETF（含跨境ETF）整 体资金净流出超44亿元。其中， 香港证券ETF、港股通互联网ETF、港股通非银ETF等港股 相关ETF产品成为"吸金"主力； 中证1000ETF、上证50ETF、沪深300ETF、中证500ETF 等宽基ETF成为"失血"大户。 昨日股票ETF资金净流出超44亿元 7月28日，三大指数均上涨，截至收盘，沪指涨0.12%，深证成指涨0.44%；创业板指涨 0.96%，再创年内新高。盘面上看，固态电池、国防军工、保险、医药等板块涨幅居前。 7月28日，股票ETF（含跨境ETF）整体资金净流出达44.17亿元，最新规模达3.81万亿元。 从大类型来看，港股市场ETF净流入居前，达34.61亿元，宽基ETF净流出居前，达84.87亿 元；规模变化方面，港股市场ETF规模上升62.01亿元。 具体到指数维度，7月28日，沪深300指数单日净流出居前，达21.03亿元。从近5个交易日 角度观测，资金流入港股通互联网指数超45亿元，流入香港证券指数超40亿元。 ...

截至2025年7月29日 14:19，信用债ETF博时(159396)下跌0.18%，最新报价100.75元。 流动性方面，信用债ETF博时盘中换手19.92%，成交24.04亿元，市场交投活跃。拉长时间看，截至7月 28日，信用债ETF博时近1月日均成交46.04亿元，排名可比基金第一。 华创证券发布研报称，经济基本面暂未出现趋势性反转信号，央行态度仍偏呵护，债市无趋势调整风 险。但短期债市仍处逆风状态，市场风险偏好提振、稳增长政策预期等或仍对债市形成扰动。对于为博 弈资本利得而持有的品种，例如长久期信用债、银行二永债等，建议寻找机会兑现收益，以防后续赎回 潮演绎。对于票息配置品种或不用过度担忧，建议持有观察，多看少动。经过上周调整后，3年期以内 信用债品种初具一定配置性价比。 规模方面，信用债ETF博时最新规模达120.94亿元。 资金流入方面，信用债ETF博时最新资金流入流出持平。拉长时间看，近21个交易日内，合计"吸 金"4.44亿元。 数据显示，杠杆资金持续布局中。信用债ETF博时前一交易日融资净买额达1016.58万元，最新融资余 额达1380.80万元。 截至7月28日，信用债ETF博时近6月净 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 30-year government bond ETF from Bosera has shown a significant increase in both liquidity and net inflow, indicating strong market interest and performance despite recent adjustments in the bond market [3][4]. Group 1: Performance Metrics - As of July 28, 2025, the 30-year government bond ETF from Bosera has accumulated a 10.68% increase over the past year [3]. - The latest scale of the ETF reached 14.453 billion yuan, marking a new high in the past year [3]. - The ETF's net value has increased by 10.72% over the past year, ranking 7th out of 414 in the index bond fund category, placing it in the top 1.69% [4]. Group 2: Liquidity and Trading Activity - The ETF experienced a turnover rate of 26.14% with a trading volume of 3.768 billion yuan, indicating active market participation [3]. - Over the past week, the ETF has seen an average daily trading volume of 4.283 billion yuan [3]. - The ETF has recorded continuous net inflows for eight days, with a peak single-day net inflow of 1.510 billion yuan, totaling 5.495 billion yuan in net inflows [4]. Group 3: Risk and Return Analysis - The maximum drawdown since inception for the ETF is 6.89%, with a relative benchmark drawdown of 1.28% [4]. - The ETF has a historical one-year profitability probability of 100% [4]. - The management fee for the ETF is set at 0.15%, while the custody fee is 0.05% [5]. Group 4: Market Influences - Recent adjustments in the bond market are influenced by rising short-term funding rates and increasing inflation expectations, which have pushed up yields on government bonds with maturities of three years and above [3]. - The People's Bank of China has conducted a net liquidity injection of 325.1 billion yuan through reverse repos, indicating a supportive monetary policy environment [3].

Core Viewpoint - The performance of the Zhongzheng Dividend Low Volatility 100 Index and its corresponding ETF reflects a stable investment opportunity amid shifting market preferences towards equity assets due to declining risk-free interest rates and increasing demand for stable returns [2][3][4]. Group 1: ETF Performance - As of July 28, 2025, the Zhongzheng Dividend Low Volatility 100 ETF has seen a net value increase of 20.03% over the past year, ranking first among comparable funds [4]. - The ETF's one-month cumulative return is 4.12%, with a recent price of 1.08 yuan, down 0.37% [2]. - The ETF's maximum drawdown this year is 6.18%, indicating relatively low risk compared to its benchmark [4]. Group 2: Fund Flows and Liquidity - The ETF has experienced continuous net inflows over the past three days, totaling 47.02 million yuan, with a peak single-day inflow of 21.76 million yuan [3]. - The trading volume of the ETF reached 15.55 million yuan, with a turnover rate of 1.43% [2]. - The ETF's latest scale reached 1.093 billion yuan, marking a one-year high [3]. Group 3: Investment Strategy and Market Outlook - The current market environment, characterized by improved risk appetite and a shift of funds from bonds to equities, has led to increased interest in dividend assets due to their stable cash flow and defensive attributes [2]. - The coal sector is expected to see new opportunities due to recovering coal prices and supportive supply-side policies, with recommendations for undervalued mid-cap companies [3]. - The ETF's strategy focuses on high dividend yield and low volatility stocks, with the top ten holdings accounting for 20.14% of the index [5].

导读：过去几年，我一直在思考一个问题：基金产品最重要的价值是什么？我个人认为，规模的大小、收益的高 低并非最重要的因素。一个有价值的基金产品，第一性原理必然是能否让持有人赚到真金白银。 怎么让持有人赚到钱，也是打通资产管理和财富管理的钥匙。我们发现， 影响持有人收益最重要的因素是：波动 率。 波动率越低的资产，越能帮助持有人获得全生命周期收益。我们以房子和股票这两类资产为例，过去20年大 家买房子的基本上都赚到了收益，而买股票的大部分人没有赚到钱。背后的原因，并非房价表现比股价更好，而 是房价波动率更低，让大家拿得住。 我们进一步观察，发现中国大类资产中，股票的波动率远高于债券。我们统计了2003到2023年的20年各类资产 数据，沪深300的年化收益率不到6%，但年化波动率超过了25%。相比之下，中证全债的年化收益率超过4%， 但是年化波动率不到5%。两者的风险收益比形成了天壤之别。 图1:2003年至2023年，各类资产的年化收益率和波动率 数据来源：Wind；数据区间：2003年1月1日至2023年12月31日 债券资产能大幅降低波动，股票权益能提供长期的收益增强，把这两类资产的有效结合，就能在降低波动 ...

Core Viewpoint - The performance of the gold ETF fund has shown resilience with a significant increase over the past six months, despite recent declines in both production and consumption of gold in China [2][3]. Group 1: Fund Performance - As of July 29, 2025, the gold ETF fund (159937) has decreased by 0.43%, with a latest price of 7.34 yuan. However, it has accumulated a 19.16% increase over the past six months [2]. - The fund has a net inflow of 44.58 million yuan over the last 20 trading days, with an average daily net inflow of 2.23 million yuan [3]. - The fund's net value has increased by 76.46% over the past five years, ranking it among the top two comparable funds [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - In the first half of 2025, China's gold production was 179.083 tons, a decrease of 0.31% year-on-year, while consumption fell by 3.54% to 505.205 tons [2]. - The China Gold Association noted that high gold prices and quality development policies have created historical opportunities for gold enterprises, leading to increased profit margins [2]. Group 3: Investment Characteristics - The gold ETF fund has demonstrated a high Sharpe ratio of 2.36 over the past year, indicating strong risk-adjusted returns [4]. - The fund's management fee is 0.50%, and the custody fee is 0.10%, which are relatively low compared to industry standards [6]. - The tracking error for the fund over the past two months is 0.002%, reflecting high tracking precision among comparable funds [7].