以通信、电子为代表的科技股领涨市场 漫画：王建明 【深圳商报讯】（记者 陈燕青）A股三季度行情收官，节后市场进入四季度交易时段。回顾前三季度， 市场整体呈现震荡上涨态势，三大指数连涨5个月。进入三季度，大盘加速上行，沪指连破3600点、 3700点、3800点等整数关口。总体来看，沪指前三季度上涨15.84%，深成指上涨29.88%，创业板指和 科创50均上涨51.2%。 根据统计，从个股来看，前三季度4218只A股上涨，占比约八成。其中，涨幅翻倍的个股有483只。上 纬新材、*ST宇顺、天普股份位居涨幅榜前三名，涨幅分别为18.9倍、9.47倍、7.9倍；此外，近千只个 股逆势下跌，其中124只个股跌幅超过20%。 研报显示，据历史统计，四季度节奏上表现为10月至11月中旬上行，11月下旬至12月下旬震荡。四季度 赚钱效应最突出的时段是11月上旬，或由于三季报业绩"靴子"落地，市场正式进入业绩真空期。其次为 10月上旬和11月中旬。结构上，10月至11月中旬科技板块领涨，11月上旬至12月下旬消费板块领涨。 国庆长假后A股迎来四季度交易时段。最近15年数据显示，2010年至2024年的过去15年间，上证指数 ...

市 场 研 究 核心观点 【市场回顾】 9 月 30 日 A 股三大指数集体收涨，截止收盘，沪指收涨 0.52%，深成 指收涨 0.35%，创业板指基本收平。沪深两市成交额 21811.07 亿元。 申万行业方面，有色金属、国防军工、房地产领涨，通信、非银金融、 综合领跌；概念板块方面，金属锌、金属铅、金属钴领涨，信托概念、 中韩自贸区、生物质能发电领跌。10 月 8 日，港股方面，恒生指数 收跌 0.48%，恒生科技指数收跌 0.55%；海外方面，美国三大指数涨 跌不一，道指基本收平，标普 500 收涨 0.58%，纳指收涨 1.12%。 【重要新闻】 【美国联邦政府近 7 年首次停摆】由于美国会参议院 9 月 30 日先后 否决两党拨款法案，当地时间 10 月 1 日 0 时 1 分，美国联邦政府近 7 年以来再次关门，数十万联邦雇员不得不面临强制休假或被裁员， 众多联邦部门的服务也"停摆"，部分公共服务或暂停、延迟，经济数 据发布将受到影响。20 世纪 70 年代以来，美国联邦政府因共和、民 主两党政策分歧导致拨款中断而"停摆"已有 20 多次。上一次也是最 长的一次"停摆"发生在 2018 年年底至 ...

Group 1: Macro Insights - The report highlights three new variables driving the strong rise in gold prices during the National Day holiday in 2025, including concerns over U.S. fiscal credit due to government shutdown, political changes in Japan and France affecting currency credibility, and significant inflows into gold ETFs indicating a shift in risk appetite from central banks to private investors [2]. - The manufacturing PMI has shown a continuous recovery for two months, primarily due to the end of high-temperature disruptions, leading to increased production activities and rising indices for procurement, inventory, and employment [3]. - The report indicates that while some sectors show improvement, such as industrial profits and PPI narrowing declines, overall corporate earnings remain unstable, with a potential slight recovery in Q4 driven by policy support [4]. Group 2: Industry Research - OpenAI's launch of Sora2 and its Apps SDK is expected to reshape the AI application landscape, emphasizing that AI enhances traditional SaaS rather than replacing it, which may alleviate market pessimism [8]. - In the real estate sector, the top 100 property companies reported a 21% month-on-month increase in sales for September, with notable performers including China Jinmao and China Merchants Shekou, suggesting a positive outlook for the market [9]. - The report on non-ferrous metals indicates that profitability in the processing and smelting sector is expected to recover, with a focus on high-end product innovation and resource utilization, particularly in copper and lithium [10]. Group 3: Company Research - The report on Jiufeng Energy discusses its investment in a coal-to-gas project in Xinjiang, highlighting the company's integrated industry chain and strong growth potential, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 of 1.732 billion, 1.979 billion, and 2.245 billion yuan respectively [11]. - China National Petroleum Corporation is noted for its commitment to long-term growth and reform, with expected net profits for 2025-2027 of 166.1 billion, 171.2 billion, and 175.7 billion yuan, maintaining a buy rating for both A and H shares [12][13].

"预存140元得280元，每月返15元话费！"看到某营业厅这样的宣传语，山东省的刘宇（化名）果断 办理了套餐。使用一段时间后她发现，该套餐的优惠实际只需预存100元即可享受。 记者了解到，不少商家在推销预付卡时刻意回避关键条款，如"单次消费最多使用卡内70%金 额""卡内余额必须覆盖全部费用方可使用"等，消费者往往在二次消费时才能发现这些隐藏限制。 美容行业是诱导充值乱象的"重灾区"。广东省的季女士就曾遭遇一场精心设计的营销套路。她先是 接到常去的美容院打来的"幸运顾客"中奖电话，到店领取小礼品时，被引导参与"点赞开盲盒"线上活 动，声称有机会获得高额奖励。 一个月后，店员以"排名靠前、需到店领奖"为由再次邀约。季女士到店后，被带入小房间接受多人 推销。对方称她"排名第七"，并极力劝说其充值冲榜，承诺"充值即可获10倍积分，锁定第一名，赢取 4000元奖金及美容项目"，甚至提出"若充值10万元可保第一，钱不够可帮忙凑"。 在持续的话术围攻下，季女士最终充值1000元才得以离开。事后她发现，所谓"第七名奖品"并未兑 现，店员以"被人超过"为由推脱。她后来还了解到，有顾客被诱导充值数万元，既未获得承诺返利与奖 品 ...

证券研究报告 2025 年 10 月 9 日 星期四 【A 股市场大势研判】 本报告的风险等级为中风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 1 指数小幅放量上涨 市场表现： | 指数名称 | 收盘点位 | 涨跌幅 | 涨跌 | 上证指数分时图 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 3882.78 | 0.52% | 20.25 | | | 深证成指 | 13526.51 | 0.35% | 47.08 | | | 沪深 300 | 4640.69 | 0.45% | 20.64 | | | 创业板 | 3238.16 | 0.00% | 0.15 | | | 科创 50 | 1495.29 | 1.69% | 24.87 | | | 北证 50 | 1528.63 | -0.70% | -10.85 | | 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，iFinD 数据 板块排名： | 申万行业表现前五 | | | 申万行业表现后五 | 概念板块表现前五 ◼ | | 概念板块表现后五 | | | ...

智通财经APP获悉，9月26日,阿里巴巴-W（09988）、盈富基金（02800）、腾讯控股（00700）南向资 金净流入金额位列市场前三，分别净流入34.60 亿、14.02 亿、11.06 亿 中国移动（00941）、中国电信（00728）、建设银行（00939）南向资金净流出金额位列市场前三，分 别净流出-6.35 亿、-3.59 亿、-3.38 亿 在净流入比方面，GX恒生科技（02837）、绿色动力环保（01330）、安井食品（02648）以462.02%、 156.44%、127.61%位列市场前三。 在净流出比方面，天津创业环保股份（01065）、中国电信（00728）、中国财险（02328） 以-123.57%、-113.73%、-110.28%位列市场前三。 | 股票名称 | 净流入比↓ | 净流入(元) | 收盘价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | GX恒生科技(02837) | 462.02% | 1614.44 万 | 7.760（-1.08%） | | 绿色动力环保(01330) | 156.44% | 321.17 万 | 5.100（+0.59%） | ...

看一场具身智能机器人与人类舞者共同演绎的舞蹈，感受低空巡检的高效率，体验车联网智能座舱…… 在2025年中国国际信息通信展览会上，"数实融合新引擎智启未来新动能"这一主题有了生动展示。 工业和信息化部总工程师钟志红表示，要筑牢数字基础设施底座，推动科技创新自立自强，深化融合应 用赋能，优化行业发展环境，共同建设一个更加智慧、包容、可持续的数字未来。 关键指标领先全球 "十四五"时期，我国信息通信业发展成效显著，网络持续领先，技术不断突破，数实加速融合。 最新数据显示，截至今年8月底，我国5G基站总数达464.6万个，5G移动电话用户达11.54亿户，我国在 5G用户普及率、千兆光网覆盖率等关键指标上继续领先全球；人工智能创新活跃，培育并开源的人工 智能大模型已快速应用于电子、原材料、消费品等行业；5G应用融入86个国民经济大类，正加速向生 产核心环节延伸。 在此前举行的"高质量完成'十四五'规划"系列主题新闻发布会上，工业和信息化部副部长张云明介绍， 我国已建成全球技术领先、规模最大的信息通信网络。网络能力迈入"双千兆"，全国三分之二的地级市 达到千兆城市标准，完成超过24万个重点场所移动网络的深度覆盖，网络 ...

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [5] Core Viewpoints - The overseas AI-related heat continues, with OpenAI partnering with AMD to deploy up to 6GW of AMD Instinct GPUs over the next few years, with the first batch of 1GW expected to be operational by 2026 [2][7] - The capital market shows strong enthusiasm for AI-related transactions, as evidenced by AMD's average increase of 30% [3][8] - Domestic AI applications are expected to accelerate breakthroughs, with a focus on the domestic computing power industry chain [3][9] Summary by Sections 1. Overseas AI Developments - OpenAI has launched the Sora 2 model, which features intelligent synchronization of audio and visuals, and has announced a significant increase in active users and API usage [2][8] - Samsung and SK Group have entered into a partnership with OpenAI to supply DRAM and HBM wafers for AI data centers [3][9] 2. Investment Recommendations - Focus on the domestic computing power industry chain, with notable growth from Alibaba Cloud and Huawei's super node cluster products [3][9] - Key beneficiaries include companies like Cambricon, Moore Threads, and SMIC, as well as those involved in advanced process manufacturing and chip architecture upgrades [3][9][11] - Recommendations extend to companies in the switch, optical device, PCB, and other related sectors, such as ZTE, Unisoc, and Longfly Fiber Optics [3][11] 3. Communication Sector Insights - Emphasis on two main areas: Beidou and satellite applications, and AI computing power [12] - Recommended companies include major telecom operators and equipment manufacturers, as well as third-party computing power leasing firms [12][14]

Stock Recommendations - 运机集团 (001288.SZ)预计2025年EPS为1.29，2026年EPS为2.11，当前PE(TTM)为35.57[2] - 国能日新 (301162.SZ)预计2025年EPS为0.94，2026年EPS为1.24，当前PE(TTM)为75.96[2] - 保隆科技 (603197.SH)预计2025年EPS为2.03，2026年EPS为2.58，当前PE(TTM)为33.01[2] - 中际旭创 (300308.SZ)预计2025年EPS为7.21，2026年EPS为8.90，当前PE(TTM)为65.88[2] - 上美股份 (2145.HK)预计2025年EPS为2.58，2026年EPS为3.23，当前PE(TTM)为39.44[2] Market Performance - 2025年9月国元金股组合自由流通加权收益率为12.44%，等权收益率为11.20%[10] - 同期上证指数上涨0.64%，沪深300上涨3.20%[10] - 表现最佳的ETF为汇添富中证电池主题ETF，上涨38.93%[10] Growth Indicators - 中际旭创市值达到4485.36亿元，ROE接近40%[17] - 国能日新归母净利润增速为32.48%，营业收入增速为43.15%[19] - 保隆科技近一个月涨幅为15.85%，换手率超过100%[17] Risks - 经济恢复及政策发力不及预期的风险[4] - 行业及个股自身经营风险[4]

Market Outlook - The market is expected to continue the upward trend observed in September, maintaining a low-slope oscillating movement in October, with a high probability of an upward trend due to the low base effect from last year and anticipated earnings growth in most industries [1][2] - The upcoming Fourth Plenary Session and the introduction of the 15th Five-Year Plan are expected to influence market expectations and trading directions, maintaining a high risk appetite in October [2] Industry Recommendations - Key sectors to focus on include non-ferrous metals, power equipment, machinery, automotive, electronics, and media, particularly those with sustained high prosperity and potential for turnaround [1][3][7] - Specific recommendations include industrial metals, precious metals, photovoltaic equipment, batteries, automation equipment, passenger vehicles, semiconductor, consumer electronics, and gaming [3][7] Investment Style and Fund Flows - The market is leaning towards a large-cap style in October, with growth expected to continue to outperform, and a more balanced industry style [3] - There is a positive outlook for net inflows of incremental funds in October, driven by financing funds and continued interest in industry and thematic ETFs [4][5] Economic and Liquidity Conditions - The macro liquidity environment is expected to remain stable, with the central bank maintaining a supportive monetary policy, which is crucial for market stability [4] - The overall funding supply is improving, with a notable increase in the issuance of equity funds and a shift from net redemptions to net subscriptions in ETFs [5] Earnings and Sector Performance - The third-quarter earnings report is anticipated to show significant growth in sectors such as high-end manufacturing, AI industry chain, and essential consumer goods, driven by low base effects and policy support [6][7] - The sectors with the highest expected earnings growth include mid-to-high-end manufacturing, AI-related industries, and certain resource products [6]