Group 1: Report Summary - The report is an aluminum industry daily report dated May 6, 2025, written by Wang Fuhui [1][2] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - The alumina main contract oscillates weakly, with increasing open interest, spot premium, and strengthening basis. Its fundamentals may be in a stage of slightly shrinking supply and stable - to - increasing demand. It is recommended to trade with a light position with a weak - oscillation strategy [2] - The Shanghai aluminum main contract oscillates weakly, with decreasing open interest, spot premium, and weakening basis. The electrolytic aluminum market is entering a stage of synchronous growth in supply and demand and benign inventory digestion. It is recommended to trade with a light position with an oscillation strategy [2] Group 4: Market Data Summary Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 19,785 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract is 2,675 yuan/ton, down 54 yuan [2] - The LME aluminum three - month quote is 2,431.50 US dollars/ton, up 15.50 US dollars; the LME aluminum inventory is 411,575 tons, down 2,000 tons [2] Spot Market - The Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum price is 19,850 yuan/ton; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market AOO aluminum price is 20,090 yuan/ton, down 270 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The alumina production is 747.52 million tons, down 3.23 million tons; the demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) is 723.72 million tons, up 76.70 million tons [2] Industry Situation - The total production capacity of electrolytic aluminum is 4,517.20 million tons, unchanged; the production of aluminum products is 598.17 million tons, down 12.49 million tons [2] Downstream and Application - The production of automobiles is 3.0446 million vehicles, down 0.454 million vehicles; the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products is 51 million tons, up 14 million tons [2] Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum is 18.20%, up 0.05%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum is 14.36%, up 0.06% [2] Group 5: Industry News - In April, the US employment growth was strong, with the unemployment rate remaining stable. The non - farm payrolls increased by 177,000, higher than the expected 130,000, and the unemployment rate remained at 4.2% [2] - The Ministry of Finance plans to increase the deficit rate to 4% this year, with a deficit scale of 5.66 trillion yuan [2] - The eurozone's April manufacturing PMI was 49, higher than the expected 48.7 [2] - The "May Day" holiday saw a consumer boom in the "trade - in" policy. New energy vehicle sales in April were strong, with significant year - on - year growth for many brands [2] - In April, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, but high - tech manufacturing and related industries continued to expand [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Futures Exchange has announced the public consultation for the futures and options contracts of casting aluminum alloy, indicating that the listing of these products is on the agenda, which will further improve the series of metal futures and options in China [1][2]. Group 1: Market Context - Aluminum alloy is one of the most widely used non-ferrous metal materials in China. The domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is nearing its limit, while the demand for aluminum in the new energy sector is steadily increasing. This has led to a growing production capacity and output of recycled aluminum, which is an effective way to alleviate supply tightness [1]. - The upcoming aluminum alloy futures will have a contract size of 10 tons, with a minimum price fluctuation of 5 yuan per ton and a minimum trading margin of 5% of the contract value. The trading code will be AD, and it will adopt a physical delivery method [1]. Group 2: Industry Applications - Currently, the automotive and motorcycle industries are the main consumers of casting aluminum alloys in China, accounting for approximately 70% of the total consumption. Additionally, there are significant applications in the power electronics, home appliances, and construction sectors [2]. - The listing of aluminum alloy futures and options will provide more risk management tools for companies in the aluminum industry chain and will contribute to the green and low-carbon development of the aluminum industry [2]. Group 3: Existing Market Structure - Previously, the Shanghai Futures Exchange has listed futures and options contracts for electrolytic aluminum and alumina. In the non-ferrous metal sector, futures derivatives for copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, tin, nickel, as well as gold and silver, have already been listed. The introduction of aluminum alloy futures and options will further enhance the completeness of the non-ferrous metal futures derivatives series [2].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 投资咨询证号：Z0019840 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：hebin@bcqhgs.com 有色金属 姓名：何彬 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F03090813 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 有色金属 | 日报 2025 年 4 月 24 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 有色震荡运行 核心观点 沪铜 今日铜价冲高回落，主力期价由昨日的 7.8 万一线回落至 7.7 万 一线。短期铜价已修复至 2 月的水平，精废价差有所走阔，产业支撑 较强但推动意愿会有所下降。美元指数大幅下挫后迎来反弹，一定 程度上也将抑制铜价上涨。短期关注 5 日均线支撑，预计期价将趋于 震荡运行。 沪铝 今日铝价围绕 1.99 万一线窄幅震荡。Mysteel 报道，华东现货市 场表现弱稳运行，铝价涨至近期高位，基差延续下调，持货商挺价控 制节奏 ...

Group 1: Ecological Restoration and Biodiversity - The Shandong Yellow River Delta National Nature Reserve is experiencing a surge in bird breeding, with larger eggs and earlier nesting times for the endangered crested ibis, indicating improved ecological conditions [1] - The average PM2.5 concentration in Shandong reached record lows last year, reflecting significant changes due to green and low-carbon transformation efforts [1] - The reserve has seen an increase in biodiversity, with bird species rising from 187 to 374 due to successful ecological restoration efforts [2] Group 2: Economic Opportunities from Ecological Practices - The removal of the invasive species Spartina alterniflora has led to the restoration of native vegetation and increased habitat for waterbirds, with a total investment of approximately 500 million yuan for the restoration of 131,000 acres [2] - The transformation of Aishan Village into an economic hub through the cultivation of mugwort has generated over 300,000 yuan annually for the village collective and created jobs for more than 300 people [3] Group 3: Circular Economy Innovations - The Xinfang Modern Agricultural Industrial Park utilizes CO2 from industrial waste to enhance strawberry production, demonstrating effective resource recycling [4] - The North Chen Advanced Recycling Technology Company has developed a safe and efficient method for recycling retired lithium batteries, achieving over 99% recovery of electrolytes [5] Group 4: Energy Efficiency and Sustainability - Shandong Hongcan Material Technology Company has reduced the production time for aluminum alloy automotive parts from over 120 minutes to just 140 seconds, achieving over 10% energy savings per ton produced [6] - The introduction of compressed air energy storage systems in Shandong is aimed at stabilizing renewable energy supply, with a project capable of generating 600 million kWh annually and reducing carbon emissions by 490,000 tons [8]

【周二沪铜阴线整理，现钢报 76195 元】上海升水 40 元，广东升水 55 元，精废价差 660 元。晚间市场 关注联储官员讲话，明日关注国内一季度指标。3 月进出口数据显示，国内家电、集成电路板块抢出口 增量明显。精铜一季度累计进口量减少 5.2%至 130.3 万吨，铜精矿进口环增 1.8%。短期铜市由中国供 需基本面及美铜物流支撑。伦铜倾向 9300 - 9500 美元阻力强，沪铜上方阻力在 7.65 - 7.7 万，反弹空 配。【今日沪铝小幅回落】华东现货平水，华南贴水 20 元。铝市供应低增速下近期去库强劲，过去一 周铝锭铝棒社库分别下降 5 万吨和 2.2 万吨，总库存处于近年最低水平。不过贸易战对全球需求前景的 打击程度仍有待观察，市场对于宏观风险的交易会有反复。沪铝技术面向下破位后，上方面临两万整数 关口和均线压制，预计本周 19000 元运行。4 月氧化铝厂集中检修，平衡有改善，但多数企业将在检修 后恢复生产，长期产量影响量级难改过剩格局。矿石价格处于下跌通道，上周氧化铝低点 2600 元附近 已经对应了矿石价格跌至 70 美元的成本预期，该位置继续向下空间已有限。近日几内亚某矿企运营出 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The non-ferrous metals sector is performing strongly due to supply constraints from mineral resources and demand support from the energy transition and AI concepts [1][2] - LME base metal prices have generally increased since January 1, 2024, with significant price rises in tin and copper since Q1 2025 [1] Key Points on Aluminum Industry Price Trends - The price of alumina has dropped over 35% since Q1 2025, while electrolytic aluminum prices have increased by approximately 3% [1][2] - Electrolytic aluminum prices have gradually increased due to rigid supply and resilient seasonal demand, reaching a peak of over 21,000 yuan per ton [2][3] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The alumina market has seen a significant decline in prices, starting from late 2024, primarily driven by falling overseas prices [2][3] - Domestic alumina production increased by 13.1% year-on-year in January-February 2025, with a total output of 15.13 million tons [5] - New alumina production capacity of approximately 460 million tons was released in Q1 2025, with an additional 520 million tons expected in Q2 [5][6] Cost Pressures - The cost of imported bauxite has decreased to around $90 per ton, contributing to the downward pressure on alumina prices [9] - The average profit margin in the alumina industry is currently negative, with potential for larger-scale production cuts if prices continue to fall below cash costs [10][14] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The market sentiment is bearish due to ongoing supply surplus expectations and rising social inventories [7][8] - The alumina market is expected to remain under pressure, with prices projected to fluctuate between 2,800 and 3,200 yuan per ton [14] Key Points on Electrolytic Aluminum Price Movements - Electrolytic aluminum prices have shown resilience, with a significant increase in Q1 2025, reaching over 21,000 yuan per ton [15][18] - The price dynamics are influenced by macroeconomic factors, including U.S. tariff policies and domestic consumption support measures [18][20] Supply and Demand Balance - The operating rate of electrolytic aluminum production in China reached 95.3% in February 2025, indicating strong production activity [22] - Demand from downstream sectors, particularly in the automotive and photovoltaic industries, is expected to support electrolytic aluminum prices [24][25] Risks and Challenges - Potential demand declines in the second half of 2025, particularly in the photovoltaic sector, could lead to inventory accumulation and downward pressure on prices [28] - The impact of U.S. tariffs on aluminum imports may create long-term challenges for export demand [28] Conclusion - The non-ferrous metals sector, particularly the aluminum market, is navigating a complex landscape of supply constraints, cost pressures, and fluctuating demand dynamics. The outlook remains cautious, with significant attention needed on macroeconomic developments and industry-specific trends.

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and ten other departments have issued the "Implementation Plan for High-Quality Development of the Aluminum Industry (2025-2027)", aiming to enhance the resilience and security of the aluminum supply chain, significantly increase resource assurance capabilities, and achieve a recycled aluminum output of over 15 million tons by 2027 through structural optimization, green low-carbon transformation, and technological innovation [1] Group 1: Resource Supply and Production Capacity - The plan addresses the long-standing issue of insufficient aluminum ore resource assurance, proposing multiple measures to strengthen resource supply capabilities, including new exploration strategies and extending the service life of existing mines [2] - It aims for a 3%-5% increase in domestic aluminum ore resources, focusing on the development of low-grade and high-sulfur aluminum ores through specialized technical research [2] - The plan imposes strict constraints on new electrolytic aluminum production capacity, promoting the transfer of capacity to regions rich in clean energy and encouraging the use of integrated processes to reduce energy consumption and carbon emissions [2] Group 2: Industry Structure and Innovation - The plan encourages mergers and acquisitions to eliminate low-competitiveness capacity and shift the industry focus from scale expansion to quality and efficiency improvement [3] - It supports leading enterprises in building industrial clusters and nurturing specialized "little giant" companies and "single champion" enterprises in the aluminum deep processing sector [3] - The plan emphasizes technological innovation as a core driver for industry upgrades, promoting collaboration between leading companies and research institutions to enhance efficiency and application of aluminum in various sectors [3] Group 3: Green and Low-Carbon Transformation - The plan sets targets for increasing the proportion of high-efficiency electrolytic aluminum production to over 30% and mandates the comprehensive utilization of red mud resources to exceed 15% [4] - It proposes the establishment of green manufacturing systems, including green mines and factories, and encourages participation in renewable energy projects [4] - The plan highlights the need for a robust standard and regulatory framework to support the green transition, including the development of international standards for carbon emissions and comprehensive utilization of red mud [4] Group 4: International Competitiveness - To enhance international competitiveness, the plan encourages enterprises to engage in mutually beneficial cooperation in resource-rich countries and expand the export of high-end aluminum-based new materials [5] - It emphasizes the importance of futures markets in providing risk management tools to stabilize industry operations [5]