Group 1 - Oil stocks continued to rise in early trading, with CNOOC Limited (02883) up 5.75% at HKD 8.83 [1] - CNOOC (00883) increased by 4.72%, reaching HKD 23.50 [1] - PetroChina (00857) rose by 3.80%, trading at HKD 8.74 [1] - Sinopec (00386) saw an increase of 3.52%, priced at HKD 5.29 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Oil stocks continue to rise amid escalating geopolitical tensions in Iran and Cuba, with significant gains observed in major oil companies [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - CNOOC Limited (02883) increased by 5.63%, reaching HKD 8.82 [1] - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (00883) rose by 4.55%, reaching HKD 23.46 [1] - PetroChina (00857) saw a 3.33% increase, reaching HKD 8.7 [1] - Sinopec (00386) grew by 2.94%, reaching HKD 5.26 [1] Group 2: Market Analysis - Everbright Securities reports that ongoing global turmoil and geopolitical uncertainties are likely to support oil price stability in the long term [1] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has raised its 2026 global crude oil demand forecast, predicting an increase of 930,000 barrels per day, up from 850,000 barrels per day in 2025, attributed to the normalization of global economic conditions following last year's tariff disruptions and lower oil prices compared to the previous year [1] Group 3: Strategic Outlook for Domestic Oil Companies - Ping An Securities indicates that domestic oil companies are reducing their sensitivity to oil price fluctuations through integrated upstream and downstream operations [1] - Companies are expected to seek more diversified sources of crude oil supply and continue to explore overseas resource investment opportunities while enhancing the development and utilization of domestic resources to ensure stable domestic supply [1] - There is a recommendation to focus on companies that are actively engaged in domestic oil and gas resource exploration, have clear goals for increasing reserves and production, and possess significant potential for overseas market expansion [1]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The international gold price reached 1135.49 yuan per gram, increasing by 20.96 yuan, a rise of 1.88% compared to the previous trading day, indicating a strong rebound [1] - The opening price for the day was reported at 1119.75 yuan per gram, with a daily high of 1137.55 yuan and a low of 1119.16 yuan [1] - A bullish sentiment is evident in the gold market, with 80% of Wall Street analysts and 71% of retail investors expecting an increase in gold prices for the upcoming week [4] Group 2: U.S. Rare Earth Investment - The U.S. government plans to invest $1.6 billion in domestic rare earth companies to strengthen the critical mineral supply chain, marking the largest investment in this sector by the Trump administration [2] - The government will acquire a 10% stake in USA Rare Earth, with a total payment of $2.77 million for 16.1 million shares at $17.17 each, alongside a $1 billion private financing round [2] - The investment is expected to yield an implied profit of approximately $490 million based on the current market price of $24.77 per share [2] Group 3: U.S.-India Trade Relations - U.S. Treasury Secretary indicated that the 25% tariff imposed on Indian imports of Russian oil has led to a significant reduction in India's purchases, suggesting a potential for tariff removal if India continues to adjust its energy import strategy [3] - The tariff policy has been described as a "huge success," providing substantial benefits to the U.S. economy [3] - The potential removal of tariffs could reshape U.S.-India trade relations and influence the global energy trade landscape [3] Group 4: Future Gold Price Projections - Analysts predict that gold prices could exceed $5000, with a target of $6000 becoming mainstream among institutions due to geopolitical uncertainties and global demand for safe-haven assets [4] - The upcoming week will be crucial for monitoring economic indicators such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and consumer confidence, which could act as catalysts for price movements [4] - The current market conditions may represent a final opportunity for investors to position themselves before gold transitions from an "investment option" to a "strategic necessity" by 2026 [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Chinese capital market is accelerating its opening - up, and new regulations for public funds are set to address industry issues. The bond market shows a slight upward trend, and the stock market has a positive outlook with new - fund issuance booming. Commodity markets, including metals, energy, and agriculture, have various price movements driven by different factors [2][17][25][36] - The macro - economic data shows a mixed picture, with GDP growth slowing, inflation rising slightly, and changes in various economic indicators such as manufacturing PMI, social financing, and trade [1] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data Overview - GDP growth in Q4 2025 was 4.5% year - on - year, down from 4.8% in the previous quarter and 5.4% in the same period last year. Manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, up from 49.8% in the previous month. Non - manufacturing PMI was 50.2%, slightly up from 50.0% [1] - Social financing in December 2025 was 22075 billion yuan, down from 35299 billion yuan in the previous month. M0, M1, and M2 growth rates changed compared to the previous month and the same period last year [1] - CPI in December 2025 was 0.8% year - on - year, up from - 0.3% in the previous month. PPI was - 1.9% year - on - year, slightly improved from - 2.3% [1] 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - The China Securities Regulatory Commission added 14 futures and options as domestic specific varieties, signaling an acceleration of capital market opening [2] - The Fed is expected to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50% - 3.75% in its January meeting, with a 95% probability according to the CME FedWatch tool [3] - On January 23, 31 domestic commodity varieties had positive basis, and 37 had negative basis [3] 3.2.2 Metals - Gold prices broke through $5000 per ounce, and silver prices exceeded $106 per ounce, with a 3% increase. Analysts predict gold price increases between 10% - 35% in 2026 [4][5] - Gold - related listed companies' performance improved due to rising gold prices, and some companies are still acquiring gold - mine assets [5] - The prices of gold and silver reached their highest weekly gains since 2020, driven by factors such as a weak dollar, capital outflows from currency and bonds, and geopolitical tensions [5] - The lithium carbonate futures price exceeded 180,000 yuan per ton, driven by supply contraction and demand growth, but market divergence is increasing [5] 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - Coking coal prices rose significantly, with most coal types increasing by over 100 yuan per ton, increasing coke production costs [7] - Coking enterprises' losses intensified, with an average loss of 65 yuan per ton of coke last week, a 20 - yuan increase from the previous week [7] - The coke market is in a tight supply - demand balance, with high steel - mill iron - water production and low coke production [8] - In 2025, the national coal production by large - scale enterprises reached 48.3 billion tons, a 1.2% year - on - year increase [8] 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - In December 2025, the national electricity market trading volume was 608 billion kWh, a 6.6% year - on - year increase. Green power trading volume increased by 32.3% [10] - Due to a cold wave in the US, natural gas futures prices exceeded $6 per million British thermal units for the first time since 2022 [10] - The US may cancel the 25% tariff on India if India's oil imports from Russia continue to decline [11] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - In mid - January 2026, 29 out of 50 important production materials' prices rose, 13 declined, and 8 remained unchanged compared to early January. Pig prices increased by 3.2% [14] - Fruit prices, such as strawberries, cherries, and tangerines, decreased due to sufficient supply [14] - As of mid - January 2026, the price of soybeans increased by 0.31% month - on - month [14] 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - On January 23, the central bank conducted 125 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 38.3 billion yuan after deducting the maturity amount [15] - This week, 1181 billion yuan of reverse repurchases and 200 billion yuan of MLF will mature. The central bank conducted 900 billion yuan of MLF operations in January, with a net injection of 700 billion yuan [15] - The central bank's mid - term liquidity net injection in January reached 1 trillion yuan to maintain market liquidity [16] 3.3.2 Important News - The CSRC issued guidelines for public - fund performance comparison benchmarks, and the Asset Management Association of China released operating rules, which will take effect on March 1 [17] - The national market operation and consumption promotion meeting emphasized promoting commodity and service consumption upgrades [17] - In 2025, the actual use of foreign capital in China was 747.69 billion yuan, a 9.5% year - on - year decrease, but some industries saw growth [18] - The central bank will promote global financial governance reform and international financial cooperation in 2026 [18] 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - The Chinese bond market showed a slight upward trend, with interest - rate bond yields falling by about 1bp. The 10 - year treasury bond yield reached 1.83% [25] - In the exchange bond market, most Vanke bonds rose, and the real - estate bond index and high - yield urban investment bond index also increased [26] - The convertible bond index rose, with some bonds having significant gains and losses [26][27] - Most money - market interest rates declined, and bond - issuance yields and multiples were reported [27][28] 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 6.9642, down 14 points from the previous trading day, but up 48 points last week. The RMB central parity rate against the US dollar was raised by 90 points [31] - The US dollar index fell 0.79%, and most non - US currencies rose [31] 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - Huatai Fixed - Income believes that the second - tier perpetual bonds have recovered, and the bond market may continue to fluctuate in Q1, with some trading opportunities [32] - Huatai Securities is optimistic about the investment opportunities of high - quality real - estate enterprises, commercial operators, Hong Kong - funded real - estate enterprises, and high - dividend property - management companies [32] - CICC Fixed - Income reports that the scale of nominal fixed - income + funds reached a record high in Q4 2025, while pure - bond funds faced redemption pressure [33] - CITIC Securities expects the expansion of public REITs to become normal, which will help transform the REITs market from "small and scattered" to "large and excellent" [34] - CITIC Construction Investment warns of risks such as US inflation, economic recession, European energy crisis, and global geopolitical risks [34] 3.4 Stock Market News - Foreign public - fund institutions are optimistic about the A - share market in 2026, maintaining high - position strategies and focusing on the technology sector [36][37] - Since the beginning of 2026, the new - fund issuance market has recovered, with 76 new funds established and a total fundraising of 71.939 billion yuan as of January 24 [37] 3.5 Today's Reminders - On January 26, 195 bonds will be listed, 127 bonds will be issued, 127 bonds will be paid, and 498 bonds will pay principal and interest [35]

截至当天收盘，纽约商品交易所3月交货的轻质原油期货价格上涨1.71美元，收于每桶61.07美元，涨幅 为2.88%；3月交货的伦敦布伦特原油期货价格上涨1.82美元，收于每桶65.88美元，涨幅为2.84%。 国际油价23日上涨。 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：华泰期货 作者： 康远宁 下行风险：俄乌和谈达成协议，宏观黑天鹅事件 市场分析 本期三大机构平衡表依然指向2026年供应过剩在200至300万桶/日之间，但由于当前石油市场的二元分 化结构以及中国持续的囤油需求，过剩主要体现在制裁油端，合规油累库力度仍有待观察，短期中东局 势依然紧张，美国持续在中东地区布兵，对伊朗的打击可能箭在弦上，伊朗不同于委内，由于其地缘位 置的重要性，可能波及周边重要产油国以及霍尔木兹海峡，因此油价对伊朗局势的敏感性远大于委内瑞 拉。 需求：EIA对2026年需求增长预估为114万桶/日，较上月预测下修10万桶/日，中国需求增长21万桶/日， 印度需求增长29万桶/日，亚太其他国家不含中日印需求增加26万桶/日，美国需求增长持平，中东需求 增长6万桶/日，非洲需求增长20万桶/日，拉美需求增加15万桶/日。OPEC预计2026年全球需求同比增长 138万桶/日，较上月基本持平。OPEC认为印度需求增长22万桶/日，中国需求增长19万桶/日，中东需求 增长16万桶/日，拉美需求增长13万桶/日，非洲需求增长16万桶/ ...

Core Viewpoint - US stock market showed mixed performance last Friday, with technology stocks performing well and the Nasdaq index showing strong movement, while the three major indices closed with varied results [1][4]. Group 1: US Market Performance - The US dollar continued to be under pressure, with the yield on the 10-year Treasury note falling to 4.23% [1][4]. - Gold prices reached a new high, and oil prices also showed upward movement [1][4]. Group 2: Hong Kong Market Performance - The three major indices in Hong Kong opened higher, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.35% to 26,844.04 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by 0.05%, and the National Enterprises Index up by 0.3% [2][5]. - In the market, technology stocks showed mixed results, with JD.com rising over 1% and Baidu falling over 1% [1][4]. - Chip stocks opened high, with Meijia Audio Holdings surging over 166% [1][4]. - Gold stocks generally rose, with Zijin Mining International increasing over 3% [1][4]. - New consumption concepts saw some gains, with Pop Mart rising over 4% [1][4]. - Oil stocks were active, with CNOOC rising over 2% [1][4]. - Automotive stocks weakened, with Xpeng Motors dropping over 1% [1][4].

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 原油：地缘不稳定因素仍是油价上涨的催化剂 （钟美燕，从业资格号：F3045334；交易咨询资格号：Z0002410） 1、周度油价收涨，尤其是周五油价日内涨幅超过3%，截止周五，WTI 3月合约收盘上至61.07美元/桶， 周度涨幅3.48%。布伦特3月合约收盘至65.88美元/桶，周度涨幅1.93%。SC2603夜盘收盘在449.8元/桶。 油价整体仍受到地缘因素的驱动而表现震荡偏强，美国财政部在声明中表示，还将对参与运输伊朗石油 和石油产品的九艘船只及八家相关公司实施制裁。消息称包括航空母舰和导弹驱逐舰在内的战舰将在未 来几天抵达中东。 2、三大机构对2026年原油及相关产品需求增速仍存在分歧，其中EIA认为供应过剩格局仍将加剧，IEA 则小幅上调需求增速预期。具体来看，EIA继续小幅上调对2026年全球原油及相关液体产量预测。预计 2026年全球原油及相关液体产量为10765万桶/日，较2025年上升139万桶/日。EIA下调对2026年需求增 速9万桶至114万桶/日，2027年需求增速为126万桶/日。EIA继续上调对2026年全球原 ...

商品市场方面，全球市场在地缘政治摩擦加剧的冲击下剧烈震荡。以黄金、白银为代表的贵金属成为了市场的焦点，其强劲的避险需求直接驱动了价格的 飙升。原油市场方面，除地缘局势外，哈萨克斯坦一直难以恢复全球最大油田之一的产量及北美极端寒潮天气引发美国天然气史诗级暴涨，推动油价宽幅 震荡走高。 （数据来源：wind，日期截至2026年1月23日，指数过往业绩不预示其未来表现，投资需谨慎） 01 市场回顾 | | | 全球大类资产本周表现 (2026/1/19-2026/1/23) | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 全球指数 | 涨跌幅 | A股领涨行业 | 涨跌幅 | 外汇 | 涨跌幅 | | 巴西IBOVESPA指数 | 8.53% | 建筑材料 | 9.23% | 澳元兑美元 | 3.19% | | 中证500 | 4.34% | 石油石化 | 7.71% | 欧元兑美元 | 1.97% | | 韩国综合指数 | 3.08% | 钢铁 | 7.31% | 美元兄港元 | 0.01% | | 科创50 | 2.62% | 基础化工 | 7.29% | 欧元兑 ...

Group 1 - The Beijing Stock Exchange (BSE) has seen its new share subscription funds exceed 1 trillion yuan for the first time, with the latest IPO from Meidele attracting an effective subscription amount of 10,588.6 billion yuan, raising the minimum capital requirement for new share allotments to 5 million yuan [2] - The Beijing Municipal Bureau of Economy and Information Technology has released measures to promote the development and utilization of commercial satellite remote sensing data from 2026 to 2030, encouraging internet and geographic information companies to develop value-added services based on satellite data [2] - The latest guidelines for the clean and efficient utilization of coal in key areas have been issued, aiming to elevate the coal industry from low-end to high-end and transition coal products from primary fuels to high-value products [2] Group 2 - The national railway system will implement a new train operation schedule starting January 26, increasing the number of scheduled passenger trains to 12,130, an increase of 243 trains, and freight trains to 23,748, an increase of 177 trains, enhancing transportation capacity and efficiency [2] - The establishment of the Liangjiang New Area in Chongqing marks the first administrative national-level new area in central and western China, covering 1,360 square kilometers with a population of approximately 3.52 million [2] - The Beijing Municipal Bureau of Economy and Information Technology has prepared the first batch of funding guidelines for high-tech industries in 2026, planning to invest over 1.5 billion yuan to support key industries such as integrated circuits, biomedicine, and digital economy [2] Group 3 - Anhui Province has achieved a total import and export value of 10,135.6 billion yuan in 2025, becoming the ninth province in the country and the first in central China to reach a foreign trade value of over 1 trillion yuan [2] - The "Shopping in China, Happiness in Zhejiang" 2026 Spring Consumption Season has been launched in Hangzhou, focusing on six major areas and introducing 23 measures to promote consumption, with over 1,700 events planned [2] - The global first automated production line for robot joints by Yiyou Technology has been launched in Pudong, marking a significant breakthrough in the mass production of core components for humanoid robots [2]